ERCOT Load Research Sampling Round 2 Model Coefficient Updates Additional Evaluations Presented to...

ERCOT Load Research Sampling ERCOT Load Research Sampling Round 2 Model Coefficient UpdatesRound 2 Model Coefficient Updates

Additional EvaluationsAdditional Evaluations

Presented to the PWG on July 28, 2010

Overview

• Outcomes from last month’s PWG meeting• Plots of scaled LRS means and backcasts

and for selected 4CP days• Plots of scaled LRS means, backcasts and

UFE for selected high UFE days• Summary MAPE’s by Profile Type and

Weather Zone for 4CP and high UFE days• Summary and Conclusions• Discussion points from June 24 PWG Discussion points from June 24 PWG

conference call.conference call.

2

Outcomes from the May PWG Meeting

• There was no interest in building completely “new” models.

• There was some interest in updating the coefficients in the existing models for selected Profile Type/Weather Zone combinations.

• PWG requested that ERCOT evaluate:• Coincident peaks (4CP) during the study period• High UFE days during the study period.

3

4CP DAYS

4

Summary of 4CP DaysSummary of 4CP Days

• The 4CP days are as follows.• 2008

– June 16 interval ending 16:45 (Not in study period.) – July 31 interval ending 16:45 – Aug 4 interval ending 17:00 – Sept 2 interval ending 16:45

• 2009 – June 25 interval ending 16:15 – July 13 interval ending 17:00 – Aug 5 interval ending 16:00 – Sept 3 interval ending 16:00

5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day August 4, 2008BUSMEDLF COASTBUSMEDLF COAST

BackcastScaled R2 Means

6

4CP at interval ending 17:00

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day August 4, 2008BUSMEDLF NCENTBUSMEDLF NCENT


7


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day August 4, 2008BUSLOLF COASTBUSLOLF COAST


8


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day August 4, 2008BUSLOLF NCENTBUSLOLF NCENT


9


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day August 4, 2008RESLOWR COASTRESLOWR COAST


10


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day August 4, 2008RESLOWR NCENTRESLOWR NCENT


11


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day June 25, 2009BUSMEDLF COASTBUSMEDLF COAST


12


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day June 25, 2009BUSMEDLF NCENTBUSMEDLF NCENT


13


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day June 25, 2009BUSLOLF COASTBUSLOLF COAST


14


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day June 25, 2009BUSLOLF NCENTBUSLOLF NCENT


15


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day June 25, 2009RESLOWR COASTRESLOWR COAST


16


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

4CP Day June 25, 2009RESLOWR NCENTRESLOWR NCENT


17


HIGH UFE DAYS

18

Summary of High UFE DaysSummary of High UFE Days

• The UFE days were selected from the UFE Analysis Report 2009

19

Date Day Season Date Day SeasonDec. 6 Sun Winter 29,012 J un. 11 Thu Summer -28,517Mar. 1 Sun Spring 27,975 Dec. 23 Wed Winter -25,414Dec. 16 Wed Winter 23,668 J an. 3 Sat Winter -21,500Sep. 13 Sun Fall 22,150 J an. 2 Fri Winter -18,436May 20 Wed Spring 21,462 J ul. 27 Mon Summer -16,485Oct. 9 Fri Fall 21,158 J an. 23 Fri Winter -14,796May 11 Mon Spring 20,676 Apr. 2 Thu Spring -14,368Dec. 5 Sat Winter 20,214 J ul. 24 Fri Summer -13,100Sep. 7 Mon Fall 20,181 Feb. 26 Thu Winter -11,590Mar. 4 Wed Spring 20,072 Dec. 24 Thu Winter -11,491

UFE MWh UFE MWh

2009- Negative UFE -+ Positive UFE +

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Wed 00:00 Wed 12:00 Thu 00:00 Thu 12:00 Fri 00:00

kWh

Time

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

BUSMEDLF COASTBUSMEDLF COASTHigh Negative UFE – Actual Load Less Than Estimated Load December 23-24, 2009

20

BackcastScaled R2 Means Percent UFE

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


kWh

Time

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

BUSMEDLF NCENTBUSMEDLF NCENTHigh Negative UFE – Actual Load Less Than Estimated Load December 23-24, 2009

21


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


kWh

Time

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

BUSLOLF COASTBUSLOLF COASTHigh Negative UFE – Actual Load Less Than Estimated Load December 23-24, 2009

22


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


kWh

Time

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

BUSLOLF NCENTBUSLOLF NCENTHigh Negative UFE – Actual Load Less Than Estimated Load December 23-24, 2009

23


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


kWh

Time

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

High Negative UFE – Actual Load Less Than Estimated Load December 23-24, 2009

RESHIWR COASTRESHIWR COAST

24


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4


kWh

Time

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

RESHIWR NCENTRESHIWR NCENTHigh Negative UFE – Actual Load Less Than Estimated Load December 23-24, 2009

25


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

BUSMEDLF COASTBUSMEDLF COASTHigh Positive UFE – Actual Load Greater Than Estimated Load March 1, 2009

26


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

BUSMEDLF NCENTBUSMEDLF NCENTHigh Positive UFE – Actual Load Greater Than Estimated Load March 1, 2009

27


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

BUSLOLF COASTBUSLOLF COASTHigh Positive UFE – Actual Load Greater Than Estimated Load March 1, 2009

28


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

BUSLOLF NCENTBUSLOLF NCENTHigh Positive UFE – Actual Load Greater Than Estimated Load March 1, 2009

29


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

High Positive UFE – Actual Load Greater Than Estimated Load March 1, 2009

RESHIWR COASTRESHIWR COAST

30


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

kWh

Time

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

%

RESHIWR NCENTRESHIWR NCENTHigh Positive UFE – Actual Load Greater Than Estimated Load March 1, 2009

31


Summary for All IntervalsSummary for All Intervals

32

Unscaled Round 2 LRS Means

COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST MEAN

BUSHILF 7.8 36.7 12.6 10.6 7.3 36.2 24.3 36.0 21.4

BUSLOLF 10.9 8.7 11.1 17.4 8.9 13.4 12.7 18.5 12.7

BUSMEDLF 6.9 5.4 23.1 6.3 23.3 10.2 6.8 35.4 14.7

BUSNODEM 17.7 9.7 10.5 6.2 12.5 9.0 17.5 18.6 12.7

RESHIWR 12.8 12.9 12.1 11.4 16.3 11.7 9.6 12.5 12.4

RESLOWR 9.4 13.1 11.2 7.9 9.3 9.4 14.7 10.7 10.7

MEAN 10.9 14.4 13.4 10.0 12.9 15.0 14.3 22.0 14.1

MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENT ERROR (MAPE)

Scaled Round 2 LRS Means


BUSHILF 3.2 6.2 3.7 2.8 2.9 3.2 4.6 3.1 3.7

BUSLOLF 7.2 8.2 10.3 15.5 8.0 12.3 11.4 9.0 10.2

BUSMEDLF 5.9 4.9 10.1 4.2 6.9 5.0 5.6 4.4 5.9

BUSNODEM 27.9 9.0 8.2 5.3 12.3 8.6 16.5 13.7 12.7

RESHIWR 8.6 9.5 11.7 8.0 10.8 10.7 7.8 10.1 9.6

RESLOWR 6.9 11.4 8.7 6.1 8.5 8.6 9.5 9.9 8.7

MEAN 9.9 8.2 8.8 7.0 8.2 8.1 9.2 8.4 8.5


Summary for 4CP and High UFE DaysSummary for 4CP and High UFE Days

33

4CP Days for 2008-2009


BUSHILF 2.1 5.8 3.4 2.2 2.4 3.2 4.4 2.3 3.2

BUSLOLF 7.9 6.0 7.2 10.2 7.2 9.8 10.4 6.5 8.1

BUSMEDLF 5.4 3.9 7.7 3.3 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.0 4.4

BUSNODEM 33.9 8.2 7.9 5.3 9.3 7.9 14.3 12.7 12.4

RESHIWR 5.6 5.6 6.8 4.2 7.1 6.5 5.3 5.4 5.8

RESLOWR 5.1 7.5 7.1 3.6 7.5 5.4 6.2 7.0 6.2

MEAN 10.0 6.2 6.7 4.8 6.3 6.1 7.4 6.2 6.7


High UFE Days from UFE Analysis Report 2009


BUSHILF 3.9 6.5 4.0 3.6 2.9 3.8 4.4 3.1 4.0

BUSLOLF 10.4 10.2 11.0 17.4 10.1 12.9 11.0 11.3 11.8

BUSMEDLF 7.1 6.4 10.0 5.9 7.2 6.4 7.1 5.5 6.9

BUSNODEM 8.6 9.2 9.2 6.0 14.2 9.0 16.2 14.5 10.9

RESHIWR 11.3 11.5 13.4 12.7 12.9 13.5 9.5 11.4 12.0

RESLOWR 8.6 13.4 9.7 10.1 9.3 9.4 11.4 10.9 10.4

MEAN 8.3 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.2 9.9 9.4 9.3


Summary Summary • MAPE’s for scaled Round 2 Means by Profile Type and

Weather Zone range between 2.8 % (BUSHILF, NCENT) and 27.9% (BUSNODEM, COAST) with the mean for all profile types and weather zones = 8.5%.

• MAPE’s for 2008-2009 4CP days by Profile Type and Weather Zone range between 2.1 % (BUSHILF, COAST) and 33.9% (BUSNODEM, COAST) with the mean for all profile types and weather zones = 6.7%.

• MAPE’s for selected 2009 high UFE days by Profile Type and Weather Zone range between 2.9 % (BUSHILF, NORTH) and 17.4% (BUSLOLF, NCENT) with the mean for all profile types and weather zones = 9.3%.

34

Conclusions Conclusions • The average MAPE for the 2008-2009 4CP days

(6.7%) is less than the MAPE for the study period (8.5%) because the current models were designed and perform best during summer high-load days.

• Profiling error is a significant part of UFE so it is expected that the average MAPE for selected 2009 high UFE days (9.3%) would be greater than MAPE for the study period (8.5%).

35

Discussion points from June 24 PWG Discussion points from June 24 PWG • ERCOT suggested updates of the model

coefficients for the Coast and North Central weather Zones for all Profile Types.

• Coast and North Central were selected because those weather zones contain the greatest percentages of TNMP’s load. TNMP has the latest timeline for advanced meter installation.

• Should other weather zones be included whose advanced meters will be deployed later?

• How could the value from updating the model coefficients be estimated?

36

Discussion points from June 24 PWG Discussion points from June 24 PWG • How might MAPE’s and UFE change with the

implementation of new model coefficients?• Due to the nodal code freeze, notification and

transition to new models, the earliest new models could be implemented is July 2011.

• If a new model transition is required, it will be necessary to create a project that would go through the prioritization process.

• ERCOT is neutral on the issue of updating the model coefficients.

37

Discussion points from June 24 PWG Discussion points from June 24 PWG • ERCOT suggested three model transition options:

• straight cutover to new models—no transition; • linearly interpolate from current models to new

models; • cutover to new models based on start date of meter

read.

• The PWG Chair will poll market participants on whether PWG should pursue updating the model coefficients.

• An updated timeline is presented on the next slide.

38

Updated Timeline Updated Timeline

39

Round 2 Load Research Sampling Process Flow and Timeline

Market Approval and TransitionData Collection, VEE and Analysis; Model Build

July 2008Sample IDR installation complete. Begin data collection and VEE.

May-June 2010Report to PWG the differences between current profile models and Round 2 sample means.

October 2010Update coefficients for selected Profile Types/Weather Zones. Present to PWG. PWG approves updates and transition plan.

November 2010Updated models are presented to COPS.

December 2010Updated models are presented to TAC.

January 2011Updated models are presented to the ERCOT Board. 150-day notice begins.

June 2011150-day notice ends. Transition to updated models begins.

July 2011Transition to updated models ends.

February 2010Complete data collection and VEE.

Questions and DiscussionQuestions and Discussion

40

ERCOT Load Research Sampling Round 2 Model Coefficient Updates Additional Evaluations Presented to...

Documents

Transcript of ERCOT Load Research Sampling Round 2 Model Coefficient Updates Additional Evaluations Presented to...