Enhancing Resilience in the Horn of Africa

CTA Brussels BriefingBrussels, March 4, 2013

Jean-François Maystadt

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)Center for Institutions and Economic Performance (LICOS)

(+) Traditional coping strategies (e.g. mobility)(+) Livestock sector is a source of current wealth and a sector with potential added value (e.g. exports to the Middle East)

(-) More severe and frequent shocks and stress (on limited amount of water)(-) Restricted mobility due to a mix of population growth, fragmentation of grazing lands and insecurity(-) Conflict, poor governance , price volatility and lack of long-term donor commitment(-) Pastoralist populations in ASAL regions often politically and economically neglected in terms of public investment

2011 drought: Relief efforts have saved lifes but have not sufficiently increased the capacity to withstand future shocks and stresses

Lack of resilience in the Horn?

Source: Headey, L. You, and A.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI DP. Forthcoming in World Development.

Vicious cycle of violence?

Source: DFID(2012).Source: Maystadt et al. (2013), based on ACLED (2012).

Violence in Somalia, 1997-2009

Estimated food security conditions, 9/2011

Source: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks . IFPRI Discussion Paper, forthcoming.

Vicious cycle in Somalia

Source: Maystadt, , Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper, forthcoming.

Vicious cycle in Somalia (and Sudan)Scenario

TDI3 change

Cattle price

change

Change in number of conflicts

Percent Percent Number Percent

Increase of TDI3 by one standard deviation

32.6 –4.3 0.52 37.4

Increase of TDI3 by temperature rise according to IPCC A1B scenario

49.0 –6.8 0.80 58.3

• Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia• Specific channel: drought-induced economic shocks on the livestock

sector and resulting income changes• Link between extreme weather shocks and violence also found in North

and South Sudan (work in progress)

• … Risk of violence is likely to magnify in the future …• Unless urgent action to enhance resilience to shocks is taken

Investment in pastoralist activities: Improved livestock resilience to drought: adoption of drought-resistant

animals, veterinary health services, emergency feed, and better access to water but without disturbing the (well-functing) livestock value chain

Help de-stocking and re-stocking through improved access to markets, insurance and credit markets, weather insurance schemes

Support income diversification: Irrigation, Migration and Education Social Safety Net Program? What can we learn from Safety Net

Programmes to enhance resilience in the Horn of Africa?

Enhancing resilience through a balanced development strategy

Source: Headey, L. You, and A.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI DP. Forthcoming in World Development

• Between 1993 and 2004, the Government of Ethiopia launched near-annual emergency appeals for food aid and other forms of emergency assistance.

• These succeeded in averting mass starvation but:– They did not banish the threat of further famine;– They did not prevent asset depletion; and– The ad hoc nature of these responses meant that the provision of emergency

assistance—often in the form of food-for-work programmes—was not integrated into ongoing economic development activities.

• In other words, these responses did not build resilience

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme(PSNP)

• PSNP began operating in 2005 (until 2014)– Reaches approximately one million households; 7 million people annually– EU is a major donor along with the USAID, World Bank, DfID, and a number of other

countries

• The PSNP “provides transfers to the food insecure population in chronically food insecure woredas in a way that prevents asset depletion at the household level and creates assets at the community level”

– It provides recipient with public works – It also seeks to stimulate market development and rehabilitate the natural environment

• The PSNP is complemented by a program (now) called the “Household Asset Building Programme” (HABP)

– Increased contact and coordination with agricultural extension services– Improved access to credit

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme(PSNP)

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme:Impact on food security

-.6

-.4

-.2

0.2

.4.6

.81

Change in m

onth

s o

f fo

od s

ecurity

, 2006-2

010

1 2 3 4 5Years receiving payments for PSNP Public Works

Dose Response Low bound

Upper bound

Confidence Bounds at .95 % level

Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

Building resilience:Change in food security for households experiencing 2+

droughts

Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

Building resilience:Change in livestock for households experiencing 2+ droughts

Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

Building resilience at the household level

Change in food security Change in livestock

Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

• Builds resilience at:– Government and governance– Natural resource management– Household

• Impacts are larger when combined with the HABP. Why?– Transfers provide both a safety net and working capital– HABP provides technical expertise

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme: