Key lessons about livelihood transitions in the Horn of Africa

Summary of the Livelihoods in Transition technical meeting of the Global Alliance,

Addis Ababa 8-9th September 2016

Tim Frankenberger

Overview

• Main findings from 4 papers presented • Push/pull factors and trends affecting pastoralism and

livelihoods

• Ideas for the way forward • from 4 papers and group discussion

Big picture: significance of drylands

• In Africa, drylands (arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas) comprise: – 43% of land area – 75% of agricultural land – home to 50% of the population

• People living in drylands have worse development outcomes • Higher poverty rates, less education, less

food security, higher % of underweight children, less access to vet services

Trends in drylands

Multiple challenges faced: • Climate variability • Poor infrastructure • Land degradation / fragmentation

– Increasing sedentarization

• Conflict • Political marginalization

Source: 1) Confronting Drought in Africa’s Drylands: Opportunities for Enhancing Resilience (2015) edited by Raffaello Cervigni and Michael Morris. Africa Development Forum series. Washington, DC: World Bank. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. 2) USAID. 2015. Resilience and Risk in Pastoralist Areas: Recent Trends in Diversified and Alternative Livelihoods. Edited by Peter Little. Chapters by D. Abebe, K. Bushby, P. Little, H. Mahmoud and E. Stites. USAID East Africa Resilience Learning Project.

Trends in pastoralism Lind & Sabates Wheeler (2016) • Those who combine livestock-based livelihood with

other income have the highest level of wellbeing and the least vulnerability

• Sedentarised pastoralists experience the highest levels of poverty and greatest resilience challenges

• Small town growth presents new economic opportunities and options to cope during crises. – These opp’s are highly gendered: women take on much of

the newly-important work in town, and in some cases control more of the income

• Diversification is not just about leaving pastoralism; many use it as a way to remain in or return to pastoralism

Source: Jeremy Lind and Rachel Sabates-Wheeler. 2016. Changes in the drylands of Eastern Africa: understanding and mapping livelihood dynamics and resilience within pastoralist systems

Lind & Sabates-Wheeler (2016) • Mobile and semi-mobile livestock-keeping are the

most productive activity in nearly all drylands, but herd sizes are diminishing for most

• Commercialisation in the livestock sector and export trade is intensifying, but levels of poverty and vulnerability are worsening

• The mobility of people with herds has greatly decreased, but it is more common for household members to live in separated locations

• Climate risks necessitate flexibility and adaptability, but rangelands are fragmenting and key grazing resources are being commodified

Paradoxical trends in pastoralism

Source: Jeremy Lind and Rachel Sabates-Wheeler. 2016. Changes in the drylands of Eastern Africa: understanding and mapping livelihood dynamics and resilience within pastoralist systems

Literature review & 3 case studies: 1) Karamoja, Uganda 2) Borana Zone, Ethiopia 3) Garissa County, Kenya

Key findings: • Push factors: 2 droughts (1973-74, ‘79-80) pushed herders temporarily or permanently out of pastoralism • Rapid growth of towns creates problems & opp’s • Education is esp. important for women • Wage activities have increased, but it’s mostly low wages

Source: USAID. 2015. Resilience and Risk in Pastoralist Areas: Recent Trends in Diversified and Alternative Livelihoods. Edited by Peter Little. Chapters by D. Abebe, K. Bushby, P. Little, H. Mahmoud and E. Stites. USAID East Africa Resilience Learning Project.

Resilience & Risk in Pastoralist Areas: Recent Trends in Diversified & Alternative Livelihoods

TANGO: livelihood diversification and HH resilience in the Horn of Africa

Study of 2 programs 1)PRIME in Ethiopia 2) BRACED in Uganda and Kenya

Key findings: Livelihood diversification as a mechanism to better cope with shocks and stresses needs to be better understood in the local context: • Diversification can work if opportunities exist to engage in:

– high-return activities – non-climate-sensitive activities with high returns

• If these opp’s don’t exist, livelihood diversification does not necessarily lead to better adaptation.

• In terms of programming, investment in expanding economic opportunities that diversify livelihood risk profiles is critical for making vulnerable HHs and communities more resilient.

The way forward for programming & investments • There are currently lots of

initiatives but they are fragmented • All livelihood changes and

diversification come with risks (economic, social, health, environmental, other) • Need to minimize risks and distinguish

short term vs. long-term costs and benefits (Little et al. 2016)

• Moving to town can be a positive adaptation, not just a negative coping strategy

Core messages from World Bank Business as usual is not an option • By 2030, up to 70% increase of population vulnerable to drought • Strong push to drop out of existing livelihoods (e.g. pastoralism)

Better management of livestock, farming, and natural resources is effective and affordable • Opportunity to cut in half or more the size of the problem • The cost ($0.4 - 1.3 billion/ year) is in the range of current development budgets

But it needs to be complemented by • Better safety nets • Contingent finance mechanisms • Alternative livelihoods • Landscape restoration

Livelihoods in transition: ideas to address the other half of the problem • Improve public-private investments

– Reduce risk by offering co-financing to encourage job creation

– Create enabling environment (schools, clinics) • Ensure that regulations support livelihoods

– e.g., communal land management • USAID considering less SME development

and more focus on bigger enterprises that employ people – Problem: high turnover; people work for 2-3

months only

Livelihoods in transition (cont’d)

• Prepare youth for city life and wage labor – Conduct market assessment to ID

available and emerging jobs – Provide education/vocational training

so youth have skills to get jobs – Provide psychosocial prep

• Raise youth’s aspirations • connect youth with role models/mentors • Provide info about risks/opp’s associated

with urban life • Establish “mobility” centers like a job-

search/welcome center

Questions?

Tim Frankenberger

TANGO International tim@tangointernational.com