Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 - Microsoft · 2020. 9. 10. · Page 1 Energy Technology...

Energy Technology Perspectives 2020Launch to the press, 10 September 2020

IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

What do net-zero ambitions mean for energy technology?

• A growing number of governments & companies are making ambitious pledges to reach net-zero

emissions in coming decades. But achieving those goals & ensuring energy security is a big challenge.

• Major progress has been made: the rise of solar PV, wind and batteries has significantly reduced the

costs of renewable electricity and electric cars.

• But transitioning the energy system to net-zero emissions requires broader technology efforts in three

critical areas:

• Existing assets in power generation and industry

• Clean energy innovation

• Infrastructure that enables rapid technology deployment


Our existing energy infrastructure is too big to ignore

Reaching net-zero emissions requires tackling emissions from long-lived assets in power generation and heavy-

industries. In emerging Asia, 80% of existing coal power capacity was built in the past 20 years.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2019 2030 2040 2050

Coal Power

Other Power

CarsOther Industry

ChemicalsCement

Steel

Trucks

Buildings

Rail

AviationShipping

2/3 wheelers

Buses

GtC

O2

/yr

Other


Our existing energy infrastructure is too big to ignore

Reaching net-zero emissions requires tackling emissions from long-lived assets in power generation and heavy-

industries. In emerging Asia, 80% of existing coal power capacity was built in the past 20 years.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2019 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

/yr

Rest of the world

Emerging Asia

Emissions from power generation and heavy industries


0

10

20

30

40

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Many industry assets are still young – iron and steel production

China’s middling-to-young production capacity accounts for upwards of 50% of the global total in key industrial sub-

sectors. India and the Middle East are also key regions.

Age profile of steelmaking from iron ore

Years

Capacity (Mt hot metal)

Asia Pacific

Russia & Central Asia

Middle East

Africa

Europe

Central and

South America

North America

China blast

furnaces

Japan blast

furnaces

Russia blast

furnaces

Middle East

DRI furnaces

Typical lifetime


Many industry assets are still young – cement production



Age profile of cement kilns

Years

Capacity (Mt clinker)

0

10

20

30

40

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

IndiaMiddle East

Japan

China

Typical lifetime

Asia Pacific


Middle East

Africa

Europe

Central and

South America

North America


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Many industry assets are still young – chemicals production



Age profile of primary chemicals production facilities

Years

Capacity (Mt primary chemical)

India

China

ChinaMiddle East

Middle East

Typical lifetime

Asia Pacific


Middle East

Africa

Europe

Central and

South America

North America


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

GtC

O2/y

r

Focusing on the power sector is not enough to reach climate goals

Clean energy technology progress in the power sector and with electric cars is encouraging, but alone not sufficient

to reach climate goals. About half of all CO2 emissions today are from industry, transport and buildings.

Net-zero emissions

Power generation

Electric cars

Airplanes, ships, trucks,

buses, etc.

Industry

Buildings & other

Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to baseline trends


Clean energy technology progress hinges on innovation

Almost half of the emissions reductions required to reach net-zero by 2050 rely on technologies that are not yet

commercial today.

Heavy industry &

long-distance transport

Cumulative emissions reductions relative to baseline trends by technology maturity

Mature

Early adoption

Demonstration

Large prototype

Small prototype/lab

Net-zero emissions by 2070 Net zero-emissions by 2050Net-zero emissions by 2050

The share jumps to three-quarters for heavy industry and long-distance transport.

IEA 2020. All rights reserved. | Credit photo (Bhadla solar park): Climate Investment Funds, 2018

2019

Net zero requires a major push to build clean energy infrastructure

Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 would require a roll out of clean energy technologies & enabling infrastructure

at unprecedented scale. Significant changes to consumer behaviour can moderate – but not eliminate – the needs.

0

200

400

600

800

GW

/year

0

25

50

75

100

GW

/year

0

75

150

225

300

MtC

O2/y

ear

Renewable capacity additions Electrolyser capacity additions Additional CO2 captured

2019 2019

The largest

solar park

every

2 days

2050 Net-zero emissions by 20702050 2019Net-zero emissions by 20702050

Selected indicators to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 through technology

The largest

electrolyserin operation

today

every

hour 1Northern-Lights

project

every

week


Governments will need to play the decisive role

Markets are vital for mobilising capital and catalysing innovation, but they will not deliver net-zero

emissions on their own. Effective policy toolkits must address five core areas:

1. Tackle emissions from existing assets

2. Strengthen markets for technologies at an early stage of adoption

3. Develop and upgrade infrastructure that enables technology deployment

4. Boost support for research, development and demonstration

5. Expand international technology collaboration

Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 - Microsoft · 2020. 9. 10. · Page 1 Energy Technology...

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