Roundtable B - Energy Technology Perspectives
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Transcript of Roundtable B - Energy Technology Perspectives
THINKTANK ROUNDTABLE B
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
Organised by:
© General Electric Company 2012
SIEW 2012IEA WorkshopKaz FukuiMarketing Director, Asia-PacificGE Power & Water
GE Power & Water
GE Proprietary InformationAll Rights Reserved
25th October 2012
304/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
Overview
2
3
1 ASEAN power needs & role of clean technologies
Available clean technology options for ASEAN
Key for enabling decarbonization of ASEAN power industry
404/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
ASEAN capacity new addition forecast (2012-2021)
Philippines
9 GW
49 GW
Indonesia
21 GW
Thailand
Vietnam
45 GW
Malaysia
12 GW
10 yr addition (GW)Coal 64
Gas 41
Hydro 13Renewables 17Oil 2Nuclear 6
Source: GE Energy Strategic Marketing forecasting & other sources (Based on the expected order figures)
6 GW
Other SE Asia
TOTAL ~140
504/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
ASEAN CO2 emission forecast (2012-2021)
Philippines
+10Mt
+118Mt
Indonesia +30Mt
ThailandVietnam
+46Mt
Malaysia
+39Mt
Source: GE Energy Global Strategy & Planning forecast, Jan 2012
3% CAGR
11% CAGR
3% CAGR
4% CAGR6% CAGR
Mt/yr 2012
2021
CAGR
Japan 550 590 1%
ASEAN 5
430 670 5%
Figures = Power related CO2 emission in Mt/yr
Mt/yr Mt/
yr
Mt/yr
Mt/yr
Mt/yr
604/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
4061
97
133
167 161
220
258
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Marine
Geothermal
Small hydro
Biomass & w-t-e
Biofuels
Solar
Wind
Clean technology … tendency to focus on mainstream solar & wind
CAGR ‘04-’1
130%
12%
22%
8%
10%
40%
30%
US$B
Source: “Global trend in renewable investment 2012”, UNEP (With Bloomberg New Energy Finance)
704/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
Critical to evaluate & embrace a toolbox of options to drive decarbonization….
Clean technology
Wind
Smart Grid / Micro-grids
Waste Heat RecoveryEnergy storage
SolarBiomas
s Hydro
Biofuel
Energy efficiency Emission
reductionCleaner coal
CCS
Geothermal
Other future …Microbial coal-to-gas
Waste plasmasification
Liquid air energy storage etc. etc. ….
804/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
Portfolio approach
Aviation
Healthcare
Water
Oil & Gas
Energy
Transportation
Home & Business Solutions
Capital
$140B+ Eco Revenues ($21B ) Focused on technology
and innovation
• Flex Efficiency 50 • Wind Turbines• Jenbacher Alternative Fuel gas
engines• SmartGrid• WattStation/DuraStation EV
charging products
• GEnx• TrueCourse
Flight Management System
• Passport Integrated Propulsion • Zeeweed Membranes
• Pro/Titan Reverse Osmosis• ABMet – Advanced
Biological Metals Removal
• Digital X Ray• Voluson
Ultrasound• WAVE Bioreactor• Ibox
• Oregen Waste Heat Recovery Systems
• PGT25+ gas turbines for compression
• Environmental Performance Services
• Arden Access• Australia eco
Mastercard
• LED Light Sources
• High Eff. CFLs• Smart
Appliances
• evolution locomotive• Trip Optimizer• Movement Planner
904/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
Cleaner coalImproved plant efficiency through efficient engineering and improved materials
• Supercritical steam turbines achieve net plant efficiencies of 42-44% (LHV)
• Typically reduce emissions by 20% compared to existing subcritical plants
• Stepping up the temperature and pressure to Ultra-supercritical leads to even greater efficiencies of 44-46% and environmental benefits
Source: GE Power & Water
1004/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
Technology integrationExpanding infrastructure synergies … gas + renewables
1104/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
• Central & distributed• Flexible supply to grid• Proven technology• Dispatchable and low cost
power• Lower carbon footprint than
coal
Flexible & efficient gas Renewable enabler & bridging technology
• 61%+ baseload efficiency … 510MW
• One-button start in <30 minutes• 51 MW/min ramp rate … 50%
faster than industry benchmark
• High efficiency 50MW combined cycle
• Full power in 5 minutes• Fuel flexibility• Lower emissions with zero water
Large units Small units
Source: GE Power & Water
1204/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
Other clean technologies for ASEAN
More flexible smart-grid deployment
Waste-to-energy with gasification
Core traditional renewables
Power from waste heat
(e.g. diesel
generators)
Biomass gasifierMicro-grid
Waste heat recovery Renewables
1304/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
How to promote best available clean technologies in ASEAN?
• Demonstration of the value of the technology (inc. pilot)
• Alliance network & demand creation
• Support mechanism & drivers
Hurdles Require
No single “best” technology … enable portfolio of clean technologies to be deployable with references & clear
demonstration of values
1404/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
The private sector is keen to help ASEAN develop cooperation in energy sectorThe key policy elements that need to be embraced by all
ASEAN members to ensure greater cooperation:
1.Encourage a diversification of energy resources and the use of clean energy technologies
2.Encourage the development of renewable energy through policies that support FiTs and pilot projects
3.Promote open trade and eliminate barriers in environmental goods and services
4.Adopt transparent processes in facilitating the development of energy projects
5.Set energy efficiency targets and enforce them
6.Work with other multilateral organizations, such as APEC, to promote clean energy policies
1504/11/23
© General Electric Company 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
25th October 2012David Elzinga
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
© OECD/IEA 2012
6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
Sustainable future still in reach
© OECD/IEA 2012
Are we on track to reach a clean
energy future?
NO ✗
Can we get on track?
YES ✓
Is a clean energy transition urgent?
YES ✓
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommendations to Governments
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. Create an investment climate of confidencein clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Global Energy system today
Dominated by fossil fuels in all sectors
© OECD/IEA 2012
The future low-carbon energy system
The 2DS in 2050 shows a dramatic shift in energy sources and demands
© OECD/IEA 2012
Only collective efforts of all sectors lead to the 2DS
The core of a clean energy system is low-carbon electricity that diffuses into all end-use sectors.
© OECD/IEA 2012
A variety of technologies is required to achieve the 2DS
Energy efficiency is the hidden fuel that increases energy security and mitigates climate change.
CCS20%
Renewables29%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency
31%
End-use fuel switching9%
Nuclear8%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching
3%
© OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
© OECD/IEA 2012
Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas
Significant action is required to get back on track
© OECD/IEA 2012
Industry must become more efficient
© OECD/IEA 2012
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.
GtC
O2
© OECD/IEA 2012
The CCS infant must grow quickly
© OECD/IEA 2012
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt C
O2
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electric vehicles need to come of age
© OECD/IEA 2012
More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050.
Pas
seng
er L
DV
sal
es (
mill
ion)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future
© OECD/IEA 2012
Services
Residential
About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Building sector challenges differ
OECD Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating & Cooling: huge potential
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy and CO2 impacts of electricity generation
Power sector accounted in 2009 for almost 40% of global primary energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions.
Power38%
Industry21%
Transport18%
Buildings15%
Other transformation6%
Agriculture2%
Power38%
Industry26%
Transport20%
Buildings9%
Other transformation5%
Agriculture2%
Total primary energy use: 509 EJ in 2009
Total energy-related CO2 emissions:31.4 Gt in 2009
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key technologies to decarbonise power generation
Electricity demand savings and renewables are each responsible for one-third of the cumulative CO2 reductions in the power sector in the 2DS.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Additional emissions 6DS
Electricity savings 28% (21%)
Fuel switching and efficiency 5% (2%)
Other renewables 5% (7%)
Wind, offshore 7% (7%)
Wind, onshore 7% (5%)
CSP 5% (8%)
PV 7% (8%)
Hydro 4% (3%)
Nuclear 14% (17%)
CCS 18% (22%)
Note: The first percentage number refers to its share in cumulative CO2 reductions between 2009 and 2050, while the percentage in parentheses refers to the annual reduction, in 2050.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity generation scenarios
05 000
10 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGasCoal
67%49%
3%
13%
12%
19%36%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2050
RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS
4DS
In the 2DS, global electricity supply becomes decarbonised by 2050.
05 000
10 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGasCoal
67%
9%14%
13%
19%
19%
57%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2050
RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS
2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity generation capacity
Generation capacity is higher in the 2DS due to great deployment of variable renewables with lower capacity factors.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity system flexibility
Power system flexibility expresses the extent to which a power system can modify electricity production or consumption in response to variability, expected or otherwise.
± MW / time
© OECD/IEA 2012
Flexibility needs and resources
Existing and new flexibility needs can be met by a range of resources in the electricity system – facilitated by power system
markets, operation and hardware.
© OECD/IEA 2012
T&D infrastructure investments in the 4DS and 2DS are similar
...but sectoral allocation differs
© OECD/IEA 2012
Smart grid benefits exceed costs by a factor of between 1.5 and 4.5
..., but direct benefits of investment in one sector may be found in other sectors.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Low-carbon electricity is at the core of a sustainable energy system
ASEAN Context
© OECD/IEA 2012
CO2 emissions in the 2DS are brought back to today’s level.
ASEAN : Sectoral Contributions to achieve the 2DS from the 4DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
ASEAN : Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS
While the electricity mix in the 4DS is dominated by coal, renewables provide more than half of the electricity in the 2DS in 2050.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key technologies to decarbonise ASEAN power generation
Renewables provide almost half of the CO2 reductions in the power sector in the 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Regional electricity mixes in the 2DS in 2050
Portfolios to decarbonise the power sector depend on regional challenges and opportunities.
25%
2%
7%
2%
19%
20%
5%
2%
4%
14%
0%
21%
6%
14%
10%
8%
23%
24%
5%
5%
24%
22%
17%
8%
28%
24%
22%
18%
60%
14%
13%
16%
7%
28%
2%
6%
6%
6%
10%
10%
21%
21%
1%
28%
15%
10%
7%
15%
29%
6%
19%
14%
16%
18%
22%
19%
9%
18%
7%
15%
17%
6%
12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
ASEAN
Brazil
China
EU
India
Mexico
Russia
South Africa
US
Fossil w/o CCS Fossil w CCS Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Other renewables
© OECD/IEA 2012
In the 2DS, electricity becomes a near zero carbon fuel by 2050
Carbon intensity drops by 90% by 2050 in the 2DS .
0100200300400500600700800900
1 000
2009 2030 2050 2030 2050
4DS 2DS
g CO
2-eq
/ kW
h
World European Union United States China India ASEAN
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas is not a panacea
The global average CO2 intensity from power generation falls below the carbon intensity of CCGTs in 2025 in the 2DS; CCS can play a role
in reducing emissions from gas
© OECD/IEA 2012
Two very different profiles for natural gas use in power generation
Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
Notes: Natural gas-fired power generation includes generation in power plants equipped with CCS units. Biogas is not included here.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Buildings energy consumption
Strong population growth in ASEAN countries will drive energy demand upwards
© OECD/IEA 2012
Passenger light-duty vehicle sales
Passenger LDV’s are expected to grow significantly in the coming decades.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Transport energy use in 2050
Shipping energy use is substantial and efficiency improvements are expected to be limited
© OECD/IEA 2012
Final Global Comments
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
USD trillion
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. A sustainable energy future is still feasible and technologies exist to take us there
2. Despite potential of technologies, progress is too slow at the moment
3. A clean energy future requires systemic thinking and deployment of a variety of technologies
4. It even makes financial sense to do it.5. Government policy is decisive in unlocking the
potential
Key messages
© OECD/IEA 2012
www.iea.org/etp
For much more, please visit
Ang Kian SengGroup Director, ResearchExecutive Director, BCA Centre for Sustainable Buildings
The Next ChallengeGreening Existing
Buildings in Singapore
Why Green our Built Environment?
End-Use Electricity Consumption in Singapore (2005)
BCA Green Mark Scheme
Estimated Energy Savings 10% to 15% 15% to 25% 25% to 30% > 30%
Singapore Green Building Roadmap at a glance
Envelop Thermal Transfer Value (ETTV)
CP24:1999 EE Standard for Bldg Services and equipment
2005(green buildings)
2005(green buildings)
80’s – 2005(Energy conservation)
Energy Efficient Building Awards (Oct 2001 to 2005)
80’s – 2005(Energy conservation)
Energy Efficient Building Awards (Oct 2001 to 2005)
2006 - 20072006 - 2007 20092009
Imposing Minimum Standards on Environmental Sustainability
All New Buildings and Existing Buildings undergoing major
retrofitting works (with GFA ≥ 2000 m2) to meet at least GM -Certified
Standard (April 2008)
Green Mark Building Projects in Singapore
Barriers to greening existing building
Training and Capacity Building- Green Collar workforceTraining and Capacity Building- Green Collar workforce
2700 attended Green Mark
Manager Course
540 attended Green Mark
Facilities Manager Course
190 attended Green Mark Professional
Course
>200 Certified Singapore
Certified Energy Manager
Newly introduced a Certificate Course in Measurement and Verification for Central Chilled Water Plant Efficiency – 120 attended
Green Buildings Enhance Asset ValueGreen Buildings Enhance Asset Value
BCA- NUS PROJECT ON VALUATION OF GREEN COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES
A saving of 10% in operating expense will translate into
a 2% increase in capital value.
• 4 weekly advertorials on business case of greening existing buildings
• In Straits Times July 2012
Green Building Advertorials
Upfront Capital cost
10% - 20%
•Invest in efficient Chiller Plant
Energy / maintenance cost
80% - 90%
Once in 15 years Opportunity
Incentives & Financing Assistance
S$100milIncentives for retrofitting
EXISTING BUILDINGS (since 2009)
Building Retrofit Energy Efficiency Building Retrofit Energy Efficiency Financing (BREEF) SchemeFinancing (BREEF) Scheme
Provide financing to Provide financing to undertake energy efficiency undertake energy efficiency
retrofitsretrofits
Enhanced GMIS-EB Qualifying Criteria
Green Mark Requirement (Ver 3) + Air-conditioning
System EfficiencyCo-funding Rate Cap Amount
Gold + 0.7 kW/RT 35% $1,500,000
Goldplus + 0.65 kW/RT 40% $2,250,000
Platinum + 0.6 kW/RT 50% $3,000,000
Up toS$3 Million
Enhanced Green Mark Incentive Scheme – Existing Buildings
Amended in July 2012
Co-fund includes supply & installation of energy efficient equipment and professional services
Four-Phased Approach to Green our Existing Building Stock
Legislation – New Bdgs (April 08)
Minimum EE Standards for New Building and Existing Buildings undergoing major retrofitting(GFA of >2000m2)
Incentive Scheme
(April 09)
GMIS (Existing Buildings) scheme co-fund upgrading for energy improvement.
Energy Data Submission
Yearly submission on energy consumption to BCA.Building owners to submit energy related building information.
Legislation –Existing
Buildings
Minimum EE standards for Existing Buildings and meet GM Certified
New and retrofitted existing buildings – 3 yearly system efficiency audit
• Three-yearly energy audit on cooling system
• Annual submission of building info & energy consumption data
• Min. GM standard for existing buildings
• Phase 1– Any hotel, retail building or
office building– GFA > 15,000m2
– Installing/replacing chilled-water cooling system.
– Must meet minimum GM Standard for Existing Buildings
• Lifespan of chilled-water cooling system is between 15 – 20 years
Energy Consumptions in Buildings
Cooling system
Lift
Lighting
Equipment
Others
Cooling system accounts for as much
as 50% of the building’s total energy
consumption.
Cooling system accounts for as much
as 50% of the building’s total energy
consumption.
Min. GM Standard for Existing Buildings
Planning
• Owner engages a PE(Mech).
• PE (Mech) looks into the overall building design and ensures that the building can achieve at least Green Mark 50 points.
• Owner to submit the Green Mark design score, retrofitted design, drawings, computations for approval before commencement of the energy improvement works.
Retrofitting
Completion
• Owner must complete the energy improvement works within three years from the date of approval of the design score by BCA.
• Submit the Green Mark as-built score (at least 50 points) (including commissioning of the cooling system).
Min. GM Standard for Existing Buildings
Min. GM Standard for Existing Buildings
Buildings involved
Existing buildings which have undergone retrofitting and are required to meet min. GM standard for existing buildings.
New buildings (except industrial and residential) with centralised chilled-water building cooling system which are required to comply with the enhanced Green Mark standards for new buildings implemented on 1 December 2010
3-Yearly System Efficiency Audit
Chiller Plant Load and Efficiency 3-Yearly System Efficiency Audit
BCA serve Notice to building owner to carry out energy audit
Building owner engage PE(Mech) or Energy Auditor to carry out energy audit and comply with requirements
Submit complying energy audit results to BCA by deadline stipulated in Notice
3-Yearly System Efficiency Audit
Purpose
Basis of the national energy benchmarks
Sharing of data with building owners for pro-active improvement to the energy performance of buildings
Measure effectiveness of energy efficiency initiatives
Annual Submission of Energy Data
Submit to BCA through Building Energy Submission System (BESS)
Useful links user submission manual technical guide demo-video
Annual Submission of Energy Data
1000
1000
1000
Similar BuildingActivity Type (Average)
EEI of Your Building
Similar BuildingActivity Type (Lowest)
Similar BuildingActivity Type (Highest)
Annual Submission of Energy Data
Green Buildings with Green Tenants
GM for Office Interior
GM for Restaurants
GM for Retail
GM for Supermarkets
GM for Non-Residential Building
New
New
We shape a safe, high quality, sustainable and friendly built environment.
Thank youThank you