Energy Options

What are our future alternatives?

How energy insecurity might increase geopolitical tensions

To be energy secure countries aim for the following:

1) Greater use of domestic sources

2) Diversification: reducing reliance on fossil fuels and maximising renewables.

3) Obtaining guarantees of imports and stable prices.(MOST CHALLENGING)

No.3 (stability of supply) is the greatest challenge

• Increasing competition exists between Producers and Consumers (mainly for oil and gas):

Producers – use oil and gas as bargaining tools. International partnerships (e.g. OPEC) have massive power, controlling supply.

Consumers- are at the mercy of the producers! Unless alternatives are used.

High military tensions in areas of potential oil-related stress!

Starter

In this section of work we are going to start to investigate some of the approaches that we can adopt to meet future energy needs and increase our energy security.

The key issues is:-What are the options open to communities

at local level and governments at national level?

Starter activity

• In pairs or threes discuss and write down the range of energy options open to us at all levels to meet our future requirements.

Eg:- Business as usual approach – continued reliance on fossil fuels.

Meeting future energy needs.

The options are –• Business as usual• Nuclear energy• Renewable energy – emphasis on wind• Energy efficient savings

Business as Usual scenario

• What is this concept ?

• What will the costs of this approach be to the environment?

• What are the geopolitical consequences of this approach?

• One production hotspot in the World –identify the potential conflicts that exist in the area?

What happens if we keep the status quo?

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates fossil fuels will continue to dominate energy use into 2030 (84%)- coal use will grow most rapidly

• Natural gas consumption will double by 2030• Oil will have to increase by 1.4 billion barrels a day to

meet demands• Consuming countries will rely more heavily on gas/ oil

imports from mid east and Russia and as Indian and Chinese demands increase further, the import amounts will surpass those of today's largest importers

• After 2015 (?) gas and oil demand will outstrip supply- world will have to increase alternative energy usage and use more efficiently

What would costs be?

• Sir Nicholas Stern predicts Climate Change will cost 5-20% of world’s GDP

• Whereas limits to greenhouse gas emissions just 1%• Already increasing global warming is leading to

increased numbers of extreme weather events and natural disasters which cost money and lives

• A 2-3 degree rise in temp could lead to reduction of global economic output of 3% by reducing crop yields

• A 5 degree rise = 10% reduction in global output, with poorest countries losing more than as they lack income to implement coping strategies (such as storing water and energy supplies)

New supply areas

• http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/3542901.stm

• Africa oil

The nuclear option?• Opinion is divided over whether

nuclear power is the answer

• It provides about 15% of the world’s electricity, but only 2% of all energy needs

• There are over 400 reactors in 30 countries, but few currently being built

Advantages Disadvantages

•Fuel sources (see map)•Low life cycle carbon emissions.•Constant power output•Takes up little space. •Large power output per plant

•Public distrust. •High initial cost.•Long build times.•High level waste disposal. •Fears of terrorism.•Nuclear proliferation. •Technically challenging

Nuclear Power

• What are the strengths and weaknesses of the nuclear power debate?

• Identify two countries that have considered the nuclear route – produce case study notes on their plans

• Let’s have a nuclear debate in class!

• Read p 26 Pearson sheet and P46 Oxford

Two ways of doing this

1. ‘Carrot and stick’ measures – emission controls, carbon trading and green taxation

2. Develop new and radical technologies that are sustainable and bring energy security

Renewable energy

• We have already covered many of the issues in this area – make sure you are aware of all the issues relating to wind energy and at least one other type of renewable – eg:- geothermal, solar,wave power

Renewable /alternative forms of energy are central to the UK’s government’s plans for future energy provision and reductions in carbon emissions and climate change.

Local communities have a wide range of reactions to these schemes – some in favour others very much against.

NIMBY’s are increasingly slowing down the process of planning to these new schemes.

Wind power - relocalisation

• http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8085551.stm Floating wind turbines off Norway

Read

• P 27 Pearson sheet

• P47 Oxford

•

REPORT TITLE:-‘The influence of local communities is key to the development of new renewable energy schemes’. Discuss the issues using case

study examples.

Structure of report

• Introduction – outline the role that alternative types of energy are expected to play in the future provision of UK’s energy needs

• Main body – assess the reasons why some alternative energy schemes are not supported by local communities while others are. Use case study evidence to help support your ideas. Eg:-Kent, Westray (Orkney) and in Europe.

• Conclusion – explain what the concept of ‘re-localisation’ is and how it is working in one part of the UK.

Resources to help

• ‘Costing the Earth’ BBC Radio 4 programme on web site.

• Resource sheet• Web-sites eg:-

www.orkneytoday.co.uk

www.orcadian.co.uk

Handing in date –

Biofuels? • Biofuels have the advantage of

being flexible liquids• As such they can replace diesel

(biodiesel) and petrol (bio-ethanol)

• However, they require food crops as feedstocks (sugar cane, maize etc)

• This means land that could be used for food.

• In 2007-08 explosive growth of biofuel crop area was blamed for pushing up global food prices

• Biofuels are not carbon neutral, because of the energy used in farming, transport and refining.

Future biofuels might not use food crops:

1st generation – food crops2nd generation – crop wastes

3rd generation – algae

Energy –efficient savings/conservation/ recycling

Make sure you understand what is meant by:-• Carbon credits• Carbon trading• Green taxation• Low carbon homes• CHP plants• Smart meters• Next generation of electric/hybrid cars

UK smart meters

• http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8055344.stm UK smart meters

Consumers benefit from being able to manage and reduce their energy bills, and, crucially, their household's carbon footprint “Consumers benefit from being able to manage and reduce their energy bills, and, crucially, their household's carbon footprint “

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8040236.stm video

• http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8078938.stm Maldives aims to become 1st carbon neutral country by 2019

Future cars- Lithium Power Bolivia

• Automakers are looking into the next generation electric or hybrid cars. The main resource for the battery would be lithium, already used in smaller electronic devices and far more efficient and longer-lasting than regular batteries.

• Almost half the world’s lithium is found in Bolivia, and as The Seattle Times notes, Bolivia is reluctant to give up lithium resources too easily.

• Bolivia and the US have had thorny relations as the democratically elected socialist and indigenous leader, Evo Morales, has nationalized oil and gas companies, much to the disappointment of the US, and with general support from his population as he attempts to slowly develop the extremely poor nation.

• This means that the European Union and Japan have been trying to court Bolivia in the hopes they can invest in lithium extraction.

• But as this PBS video highlights, geopolitics are again the concern; Bolivia fears that others will exploit it for rich resources, just as most resource-rich nations have been plundered/exploited in the past. It may be that this time the exploitation may not be as violent as during imperial and colonial times, but resource-rich/economically-poor nations like Bolivia are understandably hesitant to give up a valuable resource without local benefits.

• So it seems that Bolivia is trying hard to understand the resource more and possibly develop local capacity so that it is not just a raw resource provider, but can go further and process the resources, with much if not all proceeds helping local populations:

• http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008700362_lithium03.html More on Bolivia’s lithiumhttp://www.pbs.org/newshour/video/share.html?s=news01s24cbq8a7 video

• http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/may/14/air-powered-car-hybrid-france guardian air car article

• http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7243247.stm India’s air car- bbc

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2228669770213573581 video

Read

• P48-49 Oxford

Summary - Geopolitics • There are a number of sources of tension, both present and future, related

to energy security and the threat of insecurity:

Scenario Explanation Consequences

Oil hits $100 •Sustained oil price of over $100 per barrel, for several years.

•Prolonged economic recession and rising fuel poverty in OECD countries

Middle East meltdown

•Tensions in the Gulf escalate into war between Muslim factions; possibly involving Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Turkey and others.

•Interruption of oil and gas flows; rising prices; tension between China and USA to secure oil supply

The nuclear option

•Wholesale shifting towards nuclear to replace fossil fuels, leads to global spread of nuclear power and technology

•Power stations become ‘soft targets’ for terrorism; enriched uranium and depleted plutonium get into the wrong hands….

Energy superpowers

•The Gulf States hold 60%+ of oil reserves and Russia/Qatar/ Iran 60%+ of gas; the world has not shifted to renewables.

•Energy superpowers begin to ‘name their price’ and take care of their friends; major geopolitical shifts

Arctic attack •Canada, Russia, USA and EU begin to exploit the Arctic for oil and gas, but without clear delineation of territorial areas.

•A war or words over who has the right to exploit what, quickly becomes a new cold war – possibly a hot one……

Summary - Future challenges • What are our energy

challenges in 2010? There are some that are obvious:

• Reduce dependency on fossil fuels to increase energy security

• Increase renewable energy use as fossil fuels become more expensive / peak

• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions

• Increase access to energy in developing nations

Mix it up •Wind, solar and others can be used to diversify energy sources.

•This would increase security, but could also reduce greenhouse emissions.

Technology for all •Aid could be used to help developing nations grow their renewable sectors

•Intermediate technology is key to this.

•They need energy, but without greenhouse emissions.

Tax it down •Green taxes i.e. taxing fossil fuel use, could encourage efficiency

•Greenhouse emissions would fall as efficiency rises

•The dirtiest fuels could be taxed the most.

Self generation•Homes can generate renewable energy using ground source heat pumps, micro-wind and solar PV / thermal

•This would diversify the energy mix, reduce emissions and increase self-reliance.

Example exam questions:

1) Suggest how the distribution of major oil exporters and importers affects the energy security of some nations. (10)

2) The development of alternative energy sources is a possible response to future energy demand. Assess the possible costs and benefits of this approach. (15)