Energy for Transportation and Developments in Plug-in Vehicles Guenter Conzelmann Center for Energy,...

Energy for Transportation and Developments inPlug-in Vehicles

Guenter ConzelmannCenter for Energy, Environmental, and Economic Systems AnalysisDecision and Information Sciences Division (DIS)Argonne National Laboratory9700 South Cass AvenueArgonne, IL 60439

2

Why Electric Transportation?

The nation has an oil problem

– U.S. is refining more oil than it has, and consumes even more

The current high oil prices reflect the increasing global demand for a limited energy resource: China is number 2 in oil use and India is 6th…and growing

Oil is predominately a transportation energy problem, with economic, environmental, and geopolitical concerns for the nation

Oil is an energy security issue

Reliance on domestic oil is not sustainable, we cannot drill our way out of the problem

Even optimistic projections leave us heavily dependent on foreign oil

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Electric Vehicles: Are they Real?

Source: EPRI, 2009)

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Electric Vehicles are Part of the Government-Industry Partnership Advanced Propulsion Portfolio Vision Portfolio approach as there is no clear winner Likely, the U.S. solution with include a mix of technologies with multiple fuel sources

(electricity, biofuels, alternative fuels, etc.)

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Existing Battery Technologies do not yet Approach the Energy and Power in an Internal Combustion (IC) Engine R&D on New Technologies is still needed

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HEV, PHEV, E-REV, BEV, AEV, CS, CD, V2G, etc.: Might as well Talk to my Dog???

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The Main Concepts in Simple Terms

HEV: Hybrid electric vehicle (Ford Escape, Toyota Prius)– Small battery, gets recharged from regenerative breaking; very limited all-electric range

– No plug

PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle– Larger battery; gets charged by plugging I

– Different drivetrain configurations

• Series: ICE turns generator which charges battery which runs electric motor (Chevy Volt)

• Parallel: ICE and electric motor both run the car simultaneously (Honda Insight)

• Mix

E-REV: Extended Range Electric Vehicle– A PHEV with a bigger battery for driving ranges of 40-60+ miles using only the battery (all-

electric driving); after which the gas engine starts

BEV: Battery Electric Vehicles– Pure electric vehicles; only has an electric drivetrain

– When your out of battery, you are out of battery

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Basic Concept of a Plug-in Electric Vehicle

10 kWh JCSLi-ion battery

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Different Ways of Controlling/Operating PHEVs Engines/Batteries

Blended Modes (conventional engine cycles on/off fairly frequently)

All-Electric Modes (conventional engine stays off for an extended period of time until the battery charge reaches a certain level; then starts up)

SOC: State of Charge (Battery)

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There Will be a Substantial Cost Premium to Early Adopters; Estimates of Premium Vary Noticeably

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Conventional HEV(e.g., Prius)

PHEV10 (4kWh)

PHEV20 (8kWh)

E-REV30 (12kWh)

E-REV40 (16kWh)

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) Argonne NAS 2015 Probable NAS 2015 Optimistic

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Estimated Paybacks Can be Very Long; But the More you Drive (and the Higher the Price of Gasoline), the Better it is

Source: Sharer and Rousseau, 2009, ANL

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Increases in Powertrain Cost are Not the Only Cost Increases that Consumers May Need to Pay Chargers and cord and connector between vehicle and plus Charging Circuit Upgrades or Installation

– If you want faster charging, you will need an upgrade

– Level 1: Your standard circuit (110V, 20Amps, 1.1 KW)

– Level 2: Upgraded circuit (220V, 15 Amps, 3.3 kW)

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PHEV20 PHEV20 PHEV20 PHEV20PHEV30 PHEV30 PHEV30 PHEV30

110V, 15A 110V, 20A 220V, 20A 220V, 30A

n Midsize carn Crossover SUVn Traditional SUV

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Examples for In-Home Charging and Public Charge Stations

13Source: Coulomb Technologies, 2010

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How do We Use Vehicles?

PHEVs with an all-electric-range (AER) of 20 Miles could cover about 40% of daily Vehicles-Miles-Traveled (VMT) on electricity

PHEVs with a 30-Mile AER could cover about 55% of Daily VMTs

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Share of vehicles used on weekdays

Share of vehicles used on weekend

The chart shows national data. Similar patterns can be observed for different regions in the country.

How do We Use Vehicles? (2)

Weekday Last Vehicle Trip Ending Time Shows a Sharp Peak At 5-6 PM, Totaling 15% of Vehicles

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Last Vehicle Trip Ending Pattern of Trips Made During

July Through September

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Last Vehicle Trip Ending Pattern of Trips Made During October Through December

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July-Sep Oct-Dec

How do We Use Vehicles? (3)

Some variation; the hottest months have the smallest peak hour share

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Worst Case: Charging Starts when People Arrive at their Homes; Will Show Grid Impacts

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WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:Charge When Arriving @ Home

PHEV Aggressive Baseload Base + PHEV Aggressive

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A Smart Vehicle-Grid Interface Configuration (Smart Grid, Smart Vehicle) will Reduce (Avoid?) System Impacts

V2G

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Utilities see PHEV Smart-Charging as Critical for Success

Impact of PEVs on the 2020 Summer Load of Southern California Electric Power Grid– Peak power will increase

substantially without management

Optimal management requires smart grids and smart vehicles

Local circuits (blocks and neighborhoods) must be protected from overload– Transformers need cooling

periods at night

– Lifetime may be reduced

Consumer education and pricing policy will be key enablers

Source: SCE, 2009

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Best Case: Smart-Charging Delays Start of Battery Charging, and Perfectly Fills the Load Night-time Valley

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WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:Smart Charging

PHEV Aggressive SmartBaseloadBase + PHEV Aggressive Smart

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V2G: Vehicles could be an Active Component of the Future Grid

Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) is a PHEV equipped with a communications interface– Control signals are sent from the grid operator to manage the flow of energy between the

vehicle and the grid

• Changing charging rate; reversing the flow of energy to feed back to the grid depending on a variety of factors including current grid load, current amount of renewable generation, state of charge of the vehicle, and real-time energy pricing

– Direct load control (similar to AC programs)

With true bi-directional flow capability, vehicles could provide ancillary grid services– Frequency control, regulation and spinning reserves

– Help penetration of intermittent renewable energy generation resources (solar and wind)

Another option is Vehicle-to-House (V2H)– Plug-in vehicles treated as power generation resource along with solar or wind power, and

controlled directly by an energy management system which controls the energy load at the home or business

Some issues– Automakers want dumb charging (KISS), utilities want smart charging

– Distribution system not built for bi-directional flows; will need infrastructure investments

– Communication infrastructure would have to be developed

– Effect of increased grid-controlled cycling on battery life time

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Argonne is Analyzing Grid Integration Issues of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles New analysis initiated for DOE Total of 4 case studies at different levels of

detail– Western Interconnect, Illinois, New York ISO, New

England ISO

Involves projecting PHEV penetration, electricity demand, charging scenarios, grid and infrastructure impacts, electricity prices, and emissions

Western InterconnectModel Representation

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Summary of Recent Studies on Impacts of PHEVs on Power Systems

Study Where? When? How Much PHEVs?

Hadley, 2008 (ORNL): Estimates marginal generation needed in individual regions. Estimates GHGs and criteria pollutants.

Thirteen 2007 NERC Regions

a) after 5 PMb) after 10 PM

25% on-road LDV share in 2030

Lemoine, 2008 (UC Berkeley): Estimates CAISO (CA) capability to meet PHEV electric demand.

California a) evening (1 charge/day)b) morning and evening

(2 charges/day)

Several penetration scenarios from 20% of annual new vehicle sales to 100% by PHEVs

Miller, 2007 (Atomic Energy of Canada Limited): Aggregate analysis of new nuclear electricity supply required.

Ontario Off-peak charging of PHEVs, balance of plant output replacing current coal.

One third of LDV energy demand is from electricity

EPRI & NRDC, 2007: Examines GHG impacts of PHEVs under three alternative futures: low, medium, and high carbon intensity

Thirteen 2007 NERC regions

Charging distributed throughout the day, but mainly off-peak

3 scenarios: 20%, 62%, and 80% share of new LDV sales by PHEVs in 2050

Kintner-Meyer, 2007 (PNNL) 12 modified NERC Regions

Valley filling of daily electric load curve

Estimates total available energy to charge PHEVs

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The Starting Point is to Estimate the Future PHEV Market using Market Simulation Tools

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Estimates of Number of PHEVs on the Road in 2020 by Region About 10% of Cars and SUVs In 2020 are assumed to be PHEVs Breakdown into AER 10, 20, 30, and 40 using average typical travel pattern (NHTS)

– PHEV10 – 39%; PHEV20 – 29%; PHEV30 – 19%; PHEV40 - 13%

0

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Battery RatingUseable battery energy = 60% of rated energy

Further broken down into

Chicago and Rest

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PHEV Load Profiles for Different Charging Behavior

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Load/Grid Impacts Vary due to Different Vehicle Adoption Rates and Different Urban/Rural Driving Patterns

Different impacts

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New Capacity Requirements in 2020 due to PHEV Loads

System Peak

System Peak

System Peak

Increase Increase Increase(MW) (MW) (MW)

NY-ISO 38,738 685 370NGCC

400 685 181 GT 230 1,286 0 0

NE-ISO 31,292 759 513NGCC

400 +GT 230

759 169 GT 230 1,373 0 0

NGCC 5x400

Illinois 38,749 563 336NGCC

400563 178 GT 230 1,028 0 0

NGCC 2x400

5,935 0 0

System Peak Load (MW)

WECC 156,325 3,807 1,819 3,807 589

Power System

Unconstrained Charge Constrained Charge Smart ChargeMax.

PHEV Load (MW)

New Capacity Addition

(MW)

Max. PHEV Load (MW)


(MW)

Max. PHEV Load (MW)


(MW)

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WECC Results: Additional Generation from Gas and Coal

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Renewables Biofuels Nuclear Oil Gas Coal

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IL Results: Baseline Generation Mix in April and July

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PHEV Impact on Hourly Loads, Scenario A, Week 32 (July)

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PHEV Impact on Hourly Loads, Scenario A, Week 14 (April)

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PHEV Impact on Annual Load Duration Curve, Scenario A

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PHEV-Induced Change in Generation Mix in April:Substantially More Coal, a Little More Gas

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PHEV-Induced Change in Generation Mix in July:Less Additional Coal, More Gas

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Simulated Prices for Chicago Area – Week 32 (July): Different Price Impacts under Different Scenarios

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Location is Important – Simulated Prices in July (Week 32)

Chicago Area Mid-Illinois

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GH

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EV PHEV SI Gasoline PHEV CI Diesel PHEV SI Corn-E85 PHEV SI H. Biomass-E85 PHEV FC Distributed SMR-H2 PHEV FC Central H. Biomass-H2

Small marker for PHEV10Large marker for PHEV40

Baseline (GV)

Regular HEV (AER 0)

US Ave. Mix

WECC Mix

NY Mix

IL Mix

Renewable

color/pattern of marker = fuel/vehicle typeshape of marker = electricity generation mixsize of marker = AER rating

color/pattern of marker = fuel/vehicle typeshape of marker = electricity generation mixsize of marker = AER rating

Petroleum fuelsE85

H2

[VMTCD/VMTtotal]PHEV10 = 19%

[VMTCD/VMTtotal]PHEV40 = 51%

EV, US Ave mix

EV, NE Ave mix

EV, CA Ave mix

Summary of Petroleum Energy and GHG Effects of All Evaluated Options: Unconstrained Charging Scenario

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Summary

PHEVs can play a substantial role in reducing our petroleum consumption GHG emission reductions related to PHEV depend heavily on the energy/power mix,

the vehicle configuration, and the choice of technology Smart-infrastructure is critical to manage the additional load on the grid PHEVs/EVs may facilitate the use of large penetration of variable, renewable

resources Keep it simple for the consumer

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Average Hourly Wind Profiles for 4 Locations in Illinoisand 2008 Real-Time Prices in IL Hub

IL Wind 01 IL Wind 02IL Wind 03 IL Wind 04Real-Time Price IL

Chevy Volt Phone App

Energy for Transportation and Developments in Plug-in Vehicles Guenter Conzelmann Center for Energy,...

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Transcript of Energy for Transportation and Developments in Plug-in Vehicles Guenter Conzelmann Center for Energy,...