Energy Elasticity Funda
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Transcript of Energy Elasticity Funda
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Importance of UCG in
Indias Energy Strategy
byDr. Kirit Parikh,
Member, Planning CommissionKabini River Lodge, Karapura
Wednesday, the June 18th, 2008
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The Challenges
India needs 8% to 10% economic growth to meet
its economic and human development goal
Ensuring access of clean, convenient and reliableenergy for all
Sustained growth of 8% through 2031 needs to grow Primary Energy supply by 3 to 4
times
to Grow Electricity Supply by 5 to 7 times to improve Quality and quantity of supply
Coal shall remain the main leading energy source
till 2031-32 & beyond
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The Energy Scene
Per capita consumption is low
Cross-country comparisons of energy use andefficiency are full of pitfalls
Consumption Per Person of Primary Energy in 2003
Region/Country TPES Per E lectricity
Capita (kgoe) Consumption
Per Capita (kWh)
India 439 550China 1090 1380
US 7835 13070
World 1688 2430
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Use of Traditional Fuels
Causes indoor pollution
NSS 1999-2000 reveals
86% of rural households use firewood anddungcakes
20% of urban households use firewood and chips LPG
5% - Rural households
44% - Urban households
Kerosene
2.7% - Rural households 22% - Urban households
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Burden of Traditional Fuels in
Rural India 85 million households spent 30 billion hours
in fuel wood gathering Respiratory symptoms
24 million adults (17 million have serious symptoms)
5% Bronchial asthma
16% Bronchitis
8.2% Pulmonary TB
7% Chest infection
Eye diseases also increases
Economic burden of traditional fuels is aroundRs.300 billion
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Energy Requirements
Long-term projections based on Assumptions vis--vis the growth of the
economy
Population growth
Progress of energy conservation
Increase in energy efficiency and Availability of different fuels
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Energy Use Elasticity w.r.t. GDP
(Percentage change in commercial energy use for onepercent change in GDP)
Regression Using Indias Time SeriesPer
Capita
Total Primary CommercialEnergy Supply (TPCES)
w.r.t. GDP (Rs. Crores 1993-94)
1980-81 - 2003-04 1.08
1990-91 - 2003-04 0.82
Electricity Generated w.r.t.
GDP (Utilities + Captive)
1980-81 - 2003-04 1.30
1990-91 - 2003-04 1.06
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Energy Use Elasticity w.r.t. GDP from
Cross-Country Data of 2003
TPES (kgoe/capita) w.r.t.per capita GDP ($ PPP
2000)
All Countries 0.83
2000
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Some Energy Supply Scenario for 8% GDP
Growth
Scenario
1. Coal-Based Development
2. Maximise Nuclear3. Forced Hydro
4. Maximise Hydro & Nuclear
5. 4 plus forced Natural Gas
6. 5 plus Demand Side Management
7. 5 plus Higher Coal Power Plant Efficiency
8. 6 plus Coal Power Plant Efficiency
9. 8 plus higher freight share of Railways
10. 9 plus vehicle efficiency increased11. 10 plus renewables
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Range of Commercial Energy Requirement, Domestic
Production and Imports for 8 Percent Growth for
Year 2031-32Fuel Range of
Requirement
in Scenarios
Assumed
Domestic
Production
Range of
Imports*Import
(Percent)
(R) (P) (I) (I/R)
Oil (Mt) 350-486 35 315-451 90-93
Natural Gas- Mtoe
including CBM
100-197 100 0-97 0-49
Coal (Mtoe) 632-1022 560 72-462 11-45
TCPES 1351-1702 - 387-1010 29-59
* Range of imports is calculated as follows:
Lower bound = Minimum requirement Maximum domestic production
Upper bound = Maximum requirement Minimum domestic production
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Indias Hydro Carbon Reserves
Resources Proved Reserve/Production
No of Years
Extractable Coal 86
Extractable Lignite 136
Oil (2005) 23
Gas (2005) 38
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The Approximate Potential Available
from Nuclear EnergyParticulars Amount Electricity
MWe
Uranium-Metal 61,000-t
In PHWR 10,000
In FBR 5,00,000
Thorium-Metal 2,25,000-t
In Breeders Very Large
Source: Department of Atomic Energy
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Possible Development of Nuclear
Power Installed Capacity in MWYear Unit Scenario
Optimistic* Pessimistic2010 GWe 11 9
2020 GWe 29 21
2030 GWe 63 48
2040 GWe 131 104
2050 GWe 275 208* It is assumed that India will be able to import 8000 MW of Light
Water Reactors with fuel over the next ten years.
Source: Department of Atomic Energy
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Renewable Energy Resources
Resources Unit Present Potential
Hydro-power MW 32,326 1,50,000
Wood Mtoe/year 140 620
Biogas Mtoe/year0.6 4
0.1 15
Bio-diesel Mtoe/year - 20
Ethanol Mtoe/Year
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Strategic Imperatives
Energy Efficiency and DSM
Augmenting Resources
Energy Security including Households
Environmental Sustainability
A Carbon Free Scenario
Energy Independence
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Energy Efficiency and
Demand Side Management
Promote urban mass transport
Increase share of railways in freight
movement Benchmarking energy consumption for all
energy intensive sectors
Annual audits for specified energy intensiveindustries
Distributed Gener & CHP systems
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Augmenting Resources
Accelerated exploration for coal, oil & gas Accelerating Nuclear
Developing the thorium cycle for nuclear power
Exploiting non-conventional energy sources
Solar energy
In-situ coal gasification Enhanced recovery of oil & gas
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Energy Security Including
for Households Diversification
Buffer Stock
Clean fuels/Electricity for all/DG systems
Poor Need to be Subsidised
Give entitlements for each family through Smart
Card 30 kWhr/Month
10 Kg LPG/Month or 10 Lts. Kerosene/Month
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Environmental Sustainability
From global point of view - Carbon emissions are
main concern From local point of view Degradation of natural
resources are important
Our CO2 emissions would rise by 2031-32 5.3 billion tonnes per year in the high coal use
projection
3.8 billion tonnes per year in the low coal andrenewable projection
US CO2
emissions today are in excess of 5.5billion tonnes
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Importance of UCG
Can substitute transport fuels
Can be converted to liquid fuels
Augments our Energy Reserves
Cleaner technology
Carbon capture
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Electricity Nuclear
Hydel Solar
Oil Substitutes
Electric Traction Electric Vehicles
Cellulosic Ethanol
Biodiesel
Technically feasible
Costs high
Needs Technological breakthrough
A Carbon Free Energy Scenario
Energy Independence
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Energy IndependenceRealizing Former President Kalams
Vision To augment total domestic energy supply
To replace natural gas By Industrial Use of Naphtha, Fuel Oil(FO) and
High Speed Diesel Oil (HSDO)
By domestic use of LPG and Kerosene Gas to be used for power generation after
above demands are met
To decentralize production of bio-diesel To encourage blending of ethanol with petrol
To reduce the need for diesel used for standbygenerators and diesel pumps by providingadequate quality power
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Energy Independence. (contd.)
To expand electrification of railways
To improve railways freight service
To promote urban mass transport To improve fuel efficiency of motorised
vehicle
To encourage hybrid vehicles To eliminate oil dependence over the next
40-50 years by Developing cheap batteries with high storagedensity
Developing solar power Developing nuclear power based on Thorium
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