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PickTechno Funda Pick
S i I Di C d A i T U idScrip I-Direct Code Action Target Upside Maruti Suzuki MARUTI Buy in the range of 5770-5910 6640.00 14% Eicher Motors EICMOT Buy in the range of 23300-23600 27450.00 17% Time Frame: 6 Months
Research Analysts Dharmesh Shah dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com Nishit Zota [email protected]
January 27, 2017
Techno Funda Pick: Maruti Suzuki (MARUTI) Time Frame: 6 Months
CMP | 5885 00 B i R | 5770 5910 T t | 6640 00 U id 14%CMP: | 5885.00 Buying Range: | 5770-5910 Target: | 6640.00 Upside: 14%
Key technical observations The share price of Maruti has remained in a secular uptrend since 2014 as it continues to form higher peak and higher trough in all time frame and has consistently generated superior returns for investors over the long term. Within this structural bull run, the stock has undergone periodic phases of consolidation providing fresh entry opportunities for
Stock Data Recommended Price 5770-5910
Price Target 6570
52 Week High 5974 medium term players to ride the uptrend. We believe the consolidation over the last three months has approached maturity and the stock provides a good entry opportunity for medium term investors. The stock rebounded from a major support area ... The stock after hitting a life-time high of | 5974 in the first week of November 2016 has entered a corrective consolidation phase to work off the excesses post the breakout rally from March 2016 low of | 3185 to the life-time high of 5974. It is a healthy phenomenon as stock forms a higher base before continuing its larger up move. The corrective decline got arrested precisely near the important support area of | 4800, which is the confluence of the
*Recommendation given on i-click to gain on January 27, 2017 at 11:23 hrs
52 Week High 5974
52 Week Low 3193
50 days EMA 5474
200 days EMA 4995
52 Week EMA 4888
g p y p pp , following technical observations :
The medium term rising trendline support joining major lows since March 2016 currently placed at 5150 levels 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2016 rally placed at | 4860 levels The long term 52 weeks EMA currently placed at | 4880 levels The high of 2015 placed at | 4776 levels has reversed its role and acting as major support for the stock as can be seen in the adjacent chart. This indicates the Change of Polarity principle, which says that a significant resistance
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once taken out, reverses its role and acts as support for future price action Breakout from Bullish Flag pattern signals continuation of uptrend..... The stock witnessed a sharp rebound in the last two months from the support area of | 4800. The sharp up move and the sideways consolidation of the last two weeks has taken the pictorial shape of a bullish Flag pattern. A Flag formation is a bullish continuation pattern, which marks a temporary pause in momentum after a strong rally as the bull takes a breather before continuance of the uptrend. The strong up move in the current week has seen the stock register a resolute breakout from the Flag pattern, thus providing a fresh entry opportunity for medium term investorsPrice performance in last four years
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Maruti BSESensex
Momentum indicators validate underlying positive trend The weekly MACD (E-12/26/9) has generated a buy signal moving above its nine period’s average indicating strength and augurs well for continuance of bullish momentum over medium term Conclusion Based on the above technical parameters we believe the stock has resumed upward momentum and is set to extend the up move towards | 6640 in the medium term as it is the measuring implication of the breakout from the Flag
tt b i i it ith th i f | 4765 t 5795 (5795 4765 1030 i t ) dd d t th l t
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pattern being price parity with the previous up move from | 4765 to 5795 (5795-4765=1030 points) added to the last two weeks low of | 5610 (5610+1030=6640).
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year
Techno Funda Pick: Maruti Suzuki (MARUTI) – Weekly Bar Chart
Measuring implication of the Flag breakout @ 6630
5974
Bullish Flag breakout offers fresh entry opportunity for medium term investors to ride the next up move in the stock
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4776
Dharmesh Shah [email protected]
The stock in strong uptrend recently rebounded taking support at the confluence of: - 52 weeks EMA3185
Nishit Zota [email protected]
- 52 weeks EMA -The medium term rising trendline support -The 38.2% retracement of the 2016 rally
Weekly MACD has generated a buy signal indicating inherent strength and augurs well for the stock going forward
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Techno Funda Pick: Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Fundamental ViewFundamental View Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) is India’s largest passenger vehicle manufacturer with a market share of 46% & annual sales of 14.3 lakh units as on FY16. Maruti has a combined production capacity of 1.4 million vehicles per annum at its Gurgaon and Manesar plants. The company has a wide dealership network of 1,619 dealers across India. It has a strong presence in the small car segment with well recognized models such as Alto, Swift, Wagon R & Celerio.
Plenty of catalysts for long term growth
Stock Data Particular Amount Market Capitalization (| Crore) | 178227.2 Crore Total Debt (FY16) (| Crore) | 77.4 Crore Cash and Investments (FY16) (| Crore) | 912.1 Crore EV (| Crore) | 177392.5 Crore
MSIL has plenty of catalyst for its long term growth such as 1) The Indian PV segment will have positive impact of Seventh Pay Commission which is likely to result in incremental growth of ~16% on YoY over the next two years. We believe MSIL will be the biggest beneficiary, as it has >50% market share in the first-time buyer segment & a new model pipeline. 2) The demonetization of currency will also have least impact on passenger vehicle space (PV) as ~80% of vehicles are financed & cash transactions are minimal. Further MSIL volumes would be protected as the company has extended waiting period for most of its models. 3) MSIL has been first mover in terms of adding more content in car (airbags /ABS in base models), launched ‘smart hybrids’ variants (expected to launch the same inKey Metrics
EV (| Crore) | 177392.5 Crore 52 week H/L (|) 5972 / 3202 Equity capital (| crore) | 151 Crore Face value (|) | 5
petrol fuel, which will make the cars competitively priced) & automatic transmission option in its existing & newer models. 4) More content per car at aggressive pricing is creating a pull-strategy favouring MSIL. MSIL’s strong market share gain in the premium segment (market share in cars >8 lakh at ~25% in H1FY17 vs. ~6% in FY15) makes it a strong contender to benefit from premiumization. Thus we expect MSIL to register strong volume & revenue CAGR of 12% & 16% over FY16-18E.
Strong margins to sustain
FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E P/E (x) 48.0 39.0 22.6 19.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 26.6 19.8 15.9 13.0 P/BV (x) 7.5 6.6 5.3 4.4 RoNW (%) 15.7 16.9 23.6 22.8 RoCE (%) 17.3 22.7 25.1 24.9 g g
We expect the company to maintain strong margins of 16% for FY17E, FY18E on the back of 1) reduced exposure to JPY due to increased exports to Japan and royalty payment on new products in rupee, 2) lower discounts led by better product mix & overall volume recovery 3) savings in logistics cost post commissioning of Gujarat Plant, 4) positive operating leverage led by strong demand and 5) a better product mix.
Export to have larger growth ;post Suzuki’s Gujarat plant! S ki i i i l MSIL l b d k h Af i MSIL l d ib
Financial Highlights
| Crore FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net Sales 48,606 56,350 67,633 81,911 EBITDA 6,606 8,979 11,041 13,396 Net Profit 3 711 4 571 7 875 9 289 Suzuki is aiming to let MSIL grow as a low-cost brand to target markets such as Africa. MSIL already contributes
~45% to Suzuki’s global profits. As such, Suzuki’s strategy to make MSIL its global export hub for low priced products is logical. At present, exports form ~9% of total sales for MSIL. However this is gradually expected to pick up going forward, on the commissioning of Gujarat plant which is expected in Q4FY17.
Entering robust growth phase In the past seven years, MSIL’s average one-year forward multiple was 16x with peak multiple of 27x. We believe
Net Profit 3,711 4,571 7,875 9,289 EPS (|) 122.9 151.3 260.7 307.5
In the past seven years, MSIL s average one year forward multiple was 16x with peak multiple of 27x. We believe strong earning visibility (revise revenue, earning estimate by 1%, 10% for FY18E considering strong demand outlook), should command premium valuation. Hence, we remain positive on the stock.Source: Company, ICICIdriect.com Research
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Techno Funda Pick: Eicher Motors (EICMOT) Time Frame: 6 Months
CMP | 23400 00 B i R | 23300 23600 T t | 27450 00 U id 17%CMP: | 23400.00 Buying Range: | 23300-23600 Target: | 27450.00 Upside: 17%
Key technical observations Eicher Motors, the makers of commercial vehicles and the iconic Royal Enfield motorcycle has been in a secular uptrend consistently forming higher highs and higher lows on the long term price charts. The stock has rewarded investors with superior returns over the long term horizon. Within the structural uptrend, the stock has witnessed
Stock Data Recommended Price 23200-23600
Price Target 27450
52 Week High 26641 3 periodic phases of secondary correction that have provided fresh entry opportunities for investors to ride the secular up move. We believe the stock has undergone a healthy corrective phase over the four months since October 2016 and is attractively poised with a favourable risk-reward for medium term investors to ride the next up move Accumulation at key value area provides buying opportunity After hitting an all-time high of | 26641 in September 2016, the stock entered into a corrective phase. The price wise correction got arrested near the key value area of 19700 as it is the confluence of following technical parameters:
The 80% retracement of the last up move from between June to September 2016 (18000 to 26641) is placed at *Recommendation given on i-click to gain on January 27, 2017 at 11:08 hrs
52 Week High 26641.3
52 Week Low 15844.1
50 days EMA 22465
200 days EMA 21540
52 Week EMA 21198
The 80% retracement of the last up move from between June to September 2016 (18000 to 26641) is placed at 19700 region The neckline of the bullish cup & handle pattern from which the stock had registered a strong breakout in July 2016 was also placed around 19800 region
The stock formed a long legged Doji candle on weekly chart towards mid November 2016 highlighting strong demand at the major value area. Thereafter the stock witnessed a steady base formation above the 19700 value over the last two months as it has consolidated between the broad range of |23700 to 19900 levels. Time wise the stock has completed four months under corrective phase against its last up move which also consumed four months whereas
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completed four months under corrective phase against its last up move which also consumed four months whereas price wise it has formed a steady base at the 80% retracement of the preceding up move. Based on these observations we believe the secondary corrective phase has approached time wise and price wise maturity Breakout from overhead trendline and two month base formation signals resumption of upward momentum The up move in current weeks trade has seen the stock register a resolute breakout above the key overhead falling trendline that had acted as resistance in the entire corrective decline over the last four months. The stock has also registered a breakout from the two month base formation range thereby signalling conclusion of the healthyPrice performance in last four years
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Eicher Motors BSE Auto
corrective phase and sets the stage for the next directional up move within the larger uptrend. Momentum indicators validate underlying positive trend Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI has registered a bullish crossover above its 9 week average along with the breakout on price front highlighting strength in the current up move and augurs well for continuance of upward momentum going forward. Conclusion We expect the stock to resolve higher from here on and head towards target of |27500 levels over the medium term
95% 71%
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We expect the stock to resolve higher from here on and head towards target of |27500 levels over the medium term. The measuring implication of the two month base formation range (23700 to 19900 = 3800 point) projects upsides towards 27500 levels (23700 + 3800) over the medium-term.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year
Techno Funda Pick: Eicher Motors (EICMOT) – Weekly Candlestick Chart
Measuring implication of two monthg p base formation projects target @27500
Conclusion of four month corrective phase signals resumption of primary uptrend and provides fresh buying opportunity for medium term perspective
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Neckline of previous Cup & Handle pattern breakout area @ 19800 80% retracement of last up move @Nishit Zota
[email protected]
Positive crossover on 14 week RSI highlights strength in the price breakout
80% retracement of last up move @ 19700 Long Legged Doji Candle formed at key value area highlighting strong demand
g g g p
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Techno Funda Pick: Eicher Motors (EICMOT)
Fundamental ViewFundamental View Eicher Motors (EML) is a dual play on sustained strong growth from its motorcycle business and Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles (VECV) which is well placed to capture the CV recovery in India. The company owns the iconic brand “Royal Enfield - RE” which caters to premium & niche segment in India. On the other hand, VECV is a 54:46 joint venture (JV) between Eicher Motors and Volvo group which over the years has gradually increased its market share in Light Medium Duty trucks (5-15 Ton) to 33.9%, Heavy Duty trucks (4%), and in (15.8%) the buses segment as of FY16. RE business going from strength to strength!
Stock Data
Particular Amount Market Capitalization | 66984.8 Crore Total Debt (FY16) | 85.9 Crore Cash and Investments (FY16) | 582.7 Crore
RE business going from strength to strength! RE demand remains strong, with volumes in top 20 cities growing 15% plus and waiting period for its most successful model Classic 350 cc model at three months. EML has said its current production rate of ~60,000/month will continue till Q2FY18. Post the commencement of its third plant at Vallam Vadagal, its total capacity will go up to 900,000 units in FY19. With the dealership in smaller towns turning viable, the company continues to increase its dealer network. EML is looking to capture the under-penetrated 250-750 cc market globally and has already opened exclusive stores in Colombia, two in UK, one each in UAE, France, Spain and Indonesia.Key Metrics
EV (FY16) | 66487.9 Crore 52 week H/L (|) 26641 / 14800 Equity capital (| crore) | 27 Crore Face value (|) | 10
VECV to benefit from impending growth in distribution vehicles In FY14-16, the growth in the domestic MHCV industry has been driven by the heavy duty multi-axle vehicle (MAV) and tractor trailer segment. VECV has underperformed industry growth mainly due to concentration of VECV’s product portfolio towards intermediate commercial vehicle (ICV-7.5-12 tonne), which are mainly used as distribution vehicles. ICV forms ~39% of VECV’s product portfolio. Going ahead, we expect the next phase of growth in MHCV to come from medium duty vehicles due to the trickle-down effect, which will benefit VECV the most as it is a market leader in the ICV segment.
CY14 FY16 FY17E FY18E P/E (x) 109.2 52.6 38.0 29.0 Adj. EV/E (x) 205.1 141.3 79.9 35.4 Tgt.Adj.EV/E(x) 181.4 125.0 70.7 31.4 P/BV (x) 26.7 19.4 14.1 10.3 RoNW (%) 24.5 36.9 37.1 35.4
Strong overall financial performance With an increase in competitive intensity amid cyclical weakness in the ICV segment of M&HCV, VECV’s performance has dropped off in the past two years. However, RE’s strong performance has offset the weakness in the truck & bus segment. In our view, VECV’s performance is likely to improve with the recovery in the domestic M&HCV industry. We expect the top-line to grow at ~15% CAGR in FY16-18E (FY16 is a 15 month fiscal) while PAT is likely to grow at ~34% CAGR in FY16-18E as margins improve from 15.9% in FY16 to 19.5% in FY18E Strong growth & high margins demand rich valuations
Financial Highlights
RoCE (%) 24.5 42.4 42.0 41.5
| Crore CY14 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net Sales 8,599 15,429 16,662 20,468 EBITDA 1,115 2,447 3,076 4,005 Strong growth & high margins demand rich valuations
EML has justifiably commanded a premium over other auto OEs as RE’s business is in full throttle and VECV reaps the benefits of an economic revival. We maintain peer valuation parameters (relative valuation vis-à-vis HOG’s high growth phase). Thus, we have a BUY recommendation on the stock
Net Profit 615 1,278 1,764 2,307 EPS (|) 227.1 471.5 653.0 854.2
Source: Company, ICICIdriect.com Research
Strategy Follow up
Open Recommendations: Rec. Date Scrip Name Rec Price Target CMP Return till date (%)ec e Sc p e ec ce ge C e u d e (%) 10-Jan-17 VA Tech Wabag 479.00 575.00 500 4.4
Summary Performance - Recommendations till date Open Recommendations 1
Total Recommendations 82 Yield on Positive recommendations 18.0%Total Recommendations 82 Yield on Positive recommendations 18.0% Closed Recommendations 81 Yield on Negative recommendations -8.0%
Positive Recommendations 66 Strike Rate 81%
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Notes…
• It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report.
• The recommendations are valid for six months and in case we intend to carry forward the position, it will be communicated through separate mail.
Trading portfolio allocation
• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the • It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products
• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
• Withi each p od ct seg e t it is ad isable to allocate eq al a o t to each • Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
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Duration
Number of Calls Return Objective
Frontline Stocks Mid Cap Stocks Product Product wise
allocation
1 Stock
Stocks on the Move 6% 3-5% 7-10 Per Months 7-10% 10-15% 3 Months
Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week
Weekly Technicals 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week
Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month
Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month
Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months
Gladiator Stocks 15% 5 10% 1 2 Stocks 15% and above 20% and above 6 MonthsGladiator Stocks 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 15% and above 20% and above 6 Months
Cash 10% - 100%
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor Akruti Trade Centre1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]
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Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Nishit Zota Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst with SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990 ICICI S iti i h ll d b idi f ICICI B k hi h i I di ’ l t i t t b k d h it iINH000000990.ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this section have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non- rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. The research recommendations are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. These research recommendations and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving these recommendations. Nothing in this section constitutes investment legal accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriatethis section constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed herein may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of these recommendations. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before
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investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
Disclaimer ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Sec ities o its associates ight ha e ecei ed a co pe satio f o the co pa ies e tio ed he ei d i g the pe iod p ecedi gICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein during the period preceding twelve months from the date of these recommendations for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned herein in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its Analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or thirdSecurities or its associates or its Analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this reports. It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah and Nishit Zota, Research Analysts giving these recommendations have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the
/ i i d h i f h l d f h h di h bli i f h h d icompany/companies mentioned herein as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of these research recommendations. Since Associates (ICICI group companies) of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned herein. It is confirmed that Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee or advisory board member of the companies mentioned herein. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented herein. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned hereinNeither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned herein. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report or recommendations are not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
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S i I Di C d A i T U idScrip I-Direct Code Action Target Upside Maruti Suzuki MARUTI Buy in the range of 5770-5910 6640.00 14% Eicher Motors EICMOT Buy in the range of 23300-23600 27450.00 17% Time Frame: 6 Months
Research Analysts Dharmesh Shah dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com Nishit Zota [email protected]
January 27, 2017
Techno Funda Pick: Maruti Suzuki (MARUTI) Time Frame: 6 Months
CMP | 5885 00 B i R | 5770 5910 T t | 6640 00 U id 14%CMP: | 5885.00 Buying Range: | 5770-5910 Target: | 6640.00 Upside: 14%
Key technical observations The share price of Maruti has remained in a secular uptrend since 2014 as it continues to form higher peak and higher trough in all time frame and has consistently generated superior returns for investors over the long term. Within this structural bull run, the stock has undergone periodic phases of consolidation providing fresh entry opportunities for
Stock Data Recommended Price 5770-5910
Price Target 6570
52 Week High 5974 medium term players to ride the uptrend. We believe the consolidation over the last three months has approached maturity and the stock provides a good entry opportunity for medium term investors. The stock rebounded from a major support area ... The stock after hitting a life-time high of | 5974 in the first week of November 2016 has entered a corrective consolidation phase to work off the excesses post the breakout rally from March 2016 low of | 3185 to the life-time high of 5974. It is a healthy phenomenon as stock forms a higher base before continuing its larger up move. The corrective decline got arrested precisely near the important support area of | 4800, which is the confluence of the
*Recommendation given on i-click to gain on January 27, 2017 at 11:23 hrs
52 Week High 5974
52 Week Low 3193
50 days EMA 5474
200 days EMA 4995
52 Week EMA 4888
g p y p pp , following technical observations :
The medium term rising trendline support joining major lows since March 2016 currently placed at 5150 levels 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2016 rally placed at | 4860 levels The long term 52 weeks EMA currently placed at | 4880 levels The high of 2015 placed at | 4776 levels has reversed its role and acting as major support for the stock as can be seen in the adjacent chart. This indicates the Change of Polarity principle, which says that a significant resistance
k i l d f f i i
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24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
4,200 4,700 5,200 5,700 6,200
once taken out, reverses its role and acts as support for future price action Breakout from Bullish Flag pattern signals continuation of uptrend..... The stock witnessed a sharp rebound in the last two months from the support area of | 4800. The sharp up move and the sideways consolidation of the last two weeks has taken the pictorial shape of a bullish Flag pattern. A Flag formation is a bullish continuation pattern, which marks a temporary pause in momentum after a strong rally as the bull takes a breather before continuance of the uptrend. The strong up move in the current week has seen the stock register a resolute breakout from the Flag pattern, thus providing a fresh entry opportunity for medium term investorsPrice performance in last four years
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Maruti BSESensex
Momentum indicators validate underlying positive trend The weekly MACD (E-12/26/9) has generated a buy signal moving above its nine period’s average indicating strength and augurs well for continuance of bullish momentum over medium term Conclusion Based on the above technical parameters we believe the stock has resumed upward momentum and is set to extend the up move towards | 6640 in the medium term as it is the measuring implication of the breakout from the Flag
tt b i i it ith th i f | 4765 t 5795 (5795 4765 1030 i t ) dd d t th l t
62%
18%
89%
2
pattern being price parity with the previous up move from | 4765 to 5795 (5795-4765=1030 points) added to the last two weeks low of | 5610 (5610+1030=6640).
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year
Techno Funda Pick: Maruti Suzuki (MARUTI) – Weekly Bar Chart
Measuring implication of the Flag breakout @ 6630
5974
Bullish Flag breakout offers fresh entry opportunity for medium term investors to ride the next up move in the stock
4765
4776
Dharmesh Shah [email protected]
The stock in strong uptrend recently rebounded taking support at the confluence of: - 52 weeks EMA3185
Nishit Zota [email protected]
- 52 weeks EMA -The medium term rising trendline support -The 38.2% retracement of the 2016 rally
Weekly MACD has generated a buy signal indicating inherent strength and augurs well for the stock going forward
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Techno Funda Pick: Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Fundamental ViewFundamental View Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) is India’s largest passenger vehicle manufacturer with a market share of 46% & annual sales of 14.3 lakh units as on FY16. Maruti has a combined production capacity of 1.4 million vehicles per annum at its Gurgaon and Manesar plants. The company has a wide dealership network of 1,619 dealers across India. It has a strong presence in the small car segment with well recognized models such as Alto, Swift, Wagon R & Celerio.
Plenty of catalysts for long term growth
Stock Data Particular Amount Market Capitalization (| Crore) | 178227.2 Crore Total Debt (FY16) (| Crore) | 77.4 Crore Cash and Investments (FY16) (| Crore) | 912.1 Crore EV (| Crore) | 177392.5 Crore
MSIL has plenty of catalyst for its long term growth such as 1) The Indian PV segment will have positive impact of Seventh Pay Commission which is likely to result in incremental growth of ~16% on YoY over the next two years. We believe MSIL will be the biggest beneficiary, as it has >50% market share in the first-time buyer segment & a new model pipeline. 2) The demonetization of currency will also have least impact on passenger vehicle space (PV) as ~80% of vehicles are financed & cash transactions are minimal. Further MSIL volumes would be protected as the company has extended waiting period for most of its models. 3) MSIL has been first mover in terms of adding more content in car (airbags /ABS in base models), launched ‘smart hybrids’ variants (expected to launch the same inKey Metrics
EV (| Crore) | 177392.5 Crore 52 week H/L (|) 5972 / 3202 Equity capital (| crore) | 151 Crore Face value (|) | 5
petrol fuel, which will make the cars competitively priced) & automatic transmission option in its existing & newer models. 4) More content per car at aggressive pricing is creating a pull-strategy favouring MSIL. MSIL’s strong market share gain in the premium segment (market share in cars >8 lakh at ~25% in H1FY17 vs. ~6% in FY15) makes it a strong contender to benefit from premiumization. Thus we expect MSIL to register strong volume & revenue CAGR of 12% & 16% over FY16-18E.
Strong margins to sustain
FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E P/E (x) 48.0 39.0 22.6 19.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 26.6 19.8 15.9 13.0 P/BV (x) 7.5 6.6 5.3 4.4 RoNW (%) 15.7 16.9 23.6 22.8 RoCE (%) 17.3 22.7 25.1 24.9 g g
We expect the company to maintain strong margins of 16% for FY17E, FY18E on the back of 1) reduced exposure to JPY due to increased exports to Japan and royalty payment on new products in rupee, 2) lower discounts led by better product mix & overall volume recovery 3) savings in logistics cost post commissioning of Gujarat Plant, 4) positive operating leverage led by strong demand and 5) a better product mix.
Export to have larger growth ;post Suzuki’s Gujarat plant! S ki i i i l MSIL l b d k h Af i MSIL l d ib
Financial Highlights
| Crore FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net Sales 48,606 56,350 67,633 81,911 EBITDA 6,606 8,979 11,041 13,396 Net Profit 3 711 4 571 7 875 9 289 Suzuki is aiming to let MSIL grow as a low-cost brand to target markets such as Africa. MSIL already contributes
~45% to Suzuki’s global profits. As such, Suzuki’s strategy to make MSIL its global export hub for low priced products is logical. At present, exports form ~9% of total sales for MSIL. However this is gradually expected to pick up going forward, on the commissioning of Gujarat plant which is expected in Q4FY17.
Entering robust growth phase In the past seven years, MSIL’s average one-year forward multiple was 16x with peak multiple of 27x. We believe
Net Profit 3,711 4,571 7,875 9,289 EPS (|) 122.9 151.3 260.7 307.5
In the past seven years, MSIL s average one year forward multiple was 16x with peak multiple of 27x. We believe strong earning visibility (revise revenue, earning estimate by 1%, 10% for FY18E considering strong demand outlook), should command premium valuation. Hence, we remain positive on the stock.Source: Company, ICICIdriect.com Research
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Techno Funda Pick: Eicher Motors (EICMOT) Time Frame: 6 Months
CMP | 23400 00 B i R | 23300 23600 T t | 27450 00 U id 17%CMP: | 23400.00 Buying Range: | 23300-23600 Target: | 27450.00 Upside: 17%
Key technical observations Eicher Motors, the makers of commercial vehicles and the iconic Royal Enfield motorcycle has been in a secular uptrend consistently forming higher highs and higher lows on the long term price charts. The stock has rewarded investors with superior returns over the long term horizon. Within the structural uptrend, the stock has witnessed
Stock Data Recommended Price 23200-23600
Price Target 27450
52 Week High 26641 3 periodic phases of secondary correction that have provided fresh entry opportunities for investors to ride the secular up move. We believe the stock has undergone a healthy corrective phase over the four months since October 2016 and is attractively poised with a favourable risk-reward for medium term investors to ride the next up move Accumulation at key value area provides buying opportunity After hitting an all-time high of | 26641 in September 2016, the stock entered into a corrective phase. The price wise correction got arrested near the key value area of 19700 as it is the confluence of following technical parameters:
The 80% retracement of the last up move from between June to September 2016 (18000 to 26641) is placed at *Recommendation given on i-click to gain on January 27, 2017 at 11:08 hrs
52 Week High 26641.3
52 Week Low 15844.1
50 days EMA 22465
200 days EMA 21540
52 Week EMA 21198
The 80% retracement of the last up move from between June to September 2016 (18000 to 26641) is placed at 19700 region The neckline of the bullish cup & handle pattern from which the stock had registered a strong breakout in July 2016 was also placed around 19800 region
The stock formed a long legged Doji candle on weekly chart towards mid November 2016 highlighting strong demand at the major value area. Thereafter the stock witnessed a steady base formation above the 19700 value over the last two months as it has consolidated between the broad range of |23700 to 19900 levels. Time wise the stock has completed four months under corrective phase against its last up move which also consumed four months whereas
, 0 at 08 s
17 000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
completed four months under corrective phase against its last up move which also consumed four months whereas price wise it has formed a steady base at the 80% retracement of the preceding up move. Based on these observations we believe the secondary corrective phase has approached time wise and price wise maturity Breakout from overhead trendline and two month base formation signals resumption of upward momentum The up move in current weeks trade has seen the stock register a resolute breakout above the key overhead falling trendline that had acted as resistance in the entire corrective decline over the last four months. The stock has also registered a breakout from the two month base formation range thereby signalling conclusion of the healthyPrice performance in last four years
15,000
17,000
16,000
18,000
Eicher Motors BSE Auto
corrective phase and sets the stage for the next directional up move within the larger uptrend. Momentum indicators validate underlying positive trend Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI has registered a bullish crossover above its 9 week average along with the breakout on price front highlighting strength in the current up move and augurs well for continuance of upward momentum going forward. Conclusion We expect the stock to resolve higher from here on and head towards target of |27500 levels over the medium term
95% 71%
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We expect the stock to resolve higher from here on and head towards target of |27500 levels over the medium term. The measuring implication of the two month base formation range (23700 to 19900 = 3800 point) projects upsides towards 27500 levels (23700 + 3800) over the medium-term.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year
Techno Funda Pick: Eicher Motors (EICMOT) – Weekly Candlestick Chart
Measuring implication of two monthg p base formation projects target @27500
Conclusion of four month corrective phase signals resumption of primary uptrend and provides fresh buying opportunity for medium term perspective
26641
23700
18000
Neckline of previous Cup & Handle pattern breakout area @ 19800 80% retracement of last up move @Nishit Zota
[email protected]
Positive crossover on 14 week RSI highlights strength in the price breakout
80% retracement of last up move @ 19700 Long Legged Doji Candle formed at key value area highlighting strong demand
g g g p
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Techno Funda Pick: Eicher Motors (EICMOT)
Fundamental ViewFundamental View Eicher Motors (EML) is a dual play on sustained strong growth from its motorcycle business and Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles (VECV) which is well placed to capture the CV recovery in India. The company owns the iconic brand “Royal Enfield - RE” which caters to premium & niche segment in India. On the other hand, VECV is a 54:46 joint venture (JV) between Eicher Motors and Volvo group which over the years has gradually increased its market share in Light Medium Duty trucks (5-15 Ton) to 33.9%, Heavy Duty trucks (4%), and in (15.8%) the buses segment as of FY16. RE business going from strength to strength!
Stock Data
Particular Amount Market Capitalization | 66984.8 Crore Total Debt (FY16) | 85.9 Crore Cash and Investments (FY16) | 582.7 Crore
RE business going from strength to strength! RE demand remains strong, with volumes in top 20 cities growing 15% plus and waiting period for its most successful model Classic 350 cc model at three months. EML has said its current production rate of ~60,000/month will continue till Q2FY18. Post the commencement of its third plant at Vallam Vadagal, its total capacity will go up to 900,000 units in FY19. With the dealership in smaller towns turning viable, the company continues to increase its dealer network. EML is looking to capture the under-penetrated 250-750 cc market globally and has already opened exclusive stores in Colombia, two in UK, one each in UAE, France, Spain and Indonesia.Key Metrics
EV (FY16) | 66487.9 Crore 52 week H/L (|) 26641 / 14800 Equity capital (| crore) | 27 Crore Face value (|) | 10
VECV to benefit from impending growth in distribution vehicles In FY14-16, the growth in the domestic MHCV industry has been driven by the heavy duty multi-axle vehicle (MAV) and tractor trailer segment. VECV has underperformed industry growth mainly due to concentration of VECV’s product portfolio towards intermediate commercial vehicle (ICV-7.5-12 tonne), which are mainly used as distribution vehicles. ICV forms ~39% of VECV’s product portfolio. Going ahead, we expect the next phase of growth in MHCV to come from medium duty vehicles due to the trickle-down effect, which will benefit VECV the most as it is a market leader in the ICV segment.
CY14 FY16 FY17E FY18E P/E (x) 109.2 52.6 38.0 29.0 Adj. EV/E (x) 205.1 141.3 79.9 35.4 Tgt.Adj.EV/E(x) 181.4 125.0 70.7 31.4 P/BV (x) 26.7 19.4 14.1 10.3 RoNW (%) 24.5 36.9 37.1 35.4
Strong overall financial performance With an increase in competitive intensity amid cyclical weakness in the ICV segment of M&HCV, VECV’s performance has dropped off in the past two years. However, RE’s strong performance has offset the weakness in the truck & bus segment. In our view, VECV’s performance is likely to improve with the recovery in the domestic M&HCV industry. We expect the top-line to grow at ~15% CAGR in FY16-18E (FY16 is a 15 month fiscal) while PAT is likely to grow at ~34% CAGR in FY16-18E as margins improve from 15.9% in FY16 to 19.5% in FY18E Strong growth & high margins demand rich valuations
Financial Highlights
RoCE (%) 24.5 42.4 42.0 41.5
| Crore CY14 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net Sales 8,599 15,429 16,662 20,468 EBITDA 1,115 2,447 3,076 4,005 Strong growth & high margins demand rich valuations
EML has justifiably commanded a premium over other auto OEs as RE’s business is in full throttle and VECV reaps the benefits of an economic revival. We maintain peer valuation parameters (relative valuation vis-à-vis HOG’s high growth phase). Thus, we have a BUY recommendation on the stock
Net Profit 615 1,278 1,764 2,307 EPS (|) 227.1 471.5 653.0 854.2
Source: Company, ICICIdriect.com Research
Strategy Follow up
Open Recommendations: Rec. Date Scrip Name Rec Price Target CMP Return till date (%)ec e Sc p e ec ce ge C e u d e (%) 10-Jan-17 VA Tech Wabag 479.00 575.00 500 4.4
Summary Performance - Recommendations till date Open Recommendations 1
Total Recommendations 82 Yield on Positive recommendations 18.0%Total Recommendations 82 Yield on Positive recommendations 18.0% Closed Recommendations 81 Yield on Negative recommendations -8.0%
Positive Recommendations 66 Strike Rate 81%
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Notes…
• It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report.
• The recommendations are valid for six months and in case we intend to carry forward the position, it will be communicated through separate mail.
Trading portfolio allocation
• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the • It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products
• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
• Withi each p od ct seg e t it is ad isable to allocate eq al a o t to each • Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
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Duration
Number of Calls Return Objective
Frontline Stocks Mid Cap Stocks Product Product wise
allocation
1 Stock
Stocks on the Move 6% 3-5% 7-10 Per Months 7-10% 10-15% 3 Months
Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week
Weekly Technicals 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week
Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month
Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month
Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months
Gladiator Stocks 15% 5 10% 1 2 Stocks 15% and above 20% and above 6 MonthsGladiator Stocks 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 15% and above 20% and above 6 Months
Cash 10% - 100%
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor Akruti Trade Centre1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]
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Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Nishit Zota Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst with SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990 ICICI S iti i h ll d b idi f ICICI B k hi h i I di ’ l t i t t b k d h it iINH000000990.ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this section have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non- rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. The research recommendations are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. These research recommendations and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving these recommendations. Nothing in this section constitutes investment legal accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriatethis section constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed herein may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of these recommendations. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before
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investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
Disclaimer ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Sec ities o its associates ight ha e ecei ed a co pe satio f o the co pa ies e tio ed he ei d i g the pe iod p ecedi gICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein during the period preceding twelve months from the date of these recommendations for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned herein in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its Analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or thirdSecurities or its associates or its Analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this reports. It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah and Nishit Zota, Research Analysts giving these recommendations have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the
/ i i d h i f h l d f h h di h bli i f h h d icompany/companies mentioned herein as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of these research recommendations. Since Associates (ICICI group companies) of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned herein. It is confirmed that Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee or advisory board member of the companies mentioned herein. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented herein. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned hereinNeither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned herein. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report or recommendations are not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
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