Energy Access

Tariq Banuri

Stylized Facts: Development

• Character: Structural Change over a generation not mere expansion.

• Indicators: GNP, Energy, Taxation.

• Examples: – Japan (1945-72), Scandinavian (1945 to 1980),

Mediterranean (1950 to 1986), NICS (1960 to 1990), BASIC (1990-?)

• Challenges: – Social inequity, jobless growth, rural poverty– Environmental degradation, pollution, climate– Agricultural (even if not driver), food security

Stylized Facts: Growth

• Drivers: – Industry: productivity, growth potential, linkages– Energy: Contribution to growth, HD, SD– Trade: scale economy, incentives, transparency– Technology: Especially ICTs, Renewable Energy

• Patterns– Ride the global wave(s), rather than go-it-alone– Contagion– Role of the developmental state– Structural Adjustment and the Lost Decade

Stylized Facts: Poverty

• Measures – Head Count, HDI, MDGs, Equity

• Drivers of MDG achievement– Economic growth (first explanation)– Community based/ pro poor programs (esp for

education, health, social services)– Vertical Programs (e.g., immunization)– Legislation (on rights related issues)

0.400.450.500.550.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.951.00

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

TPES (kWh/cap/day)

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I

LOW

MIDDLE

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A Race of Growth and Catastrophe

• We cannot live without growth (Rich and Poor)– Welfare: Full employment, social services– Development: end to permanent global inequality– Peace, security, democracy, and human rights

• We cannot live long with current growth pattern

• contemporary history has become a race between growth and catastrophe

Three Strategies

Developing• Win the Race!• Accelerate development

and/or poverty efforts: food, water, health, etc

• Bend the Curve!• Internalize Externalities:

taxes, subsidies, prices and valuation

• Build a New Path• Technology (green energy

revolution, ICTs)• Infrastructure

Developed• Beyond Growth!• Convince all countries to

slow down growth

• Transfer Technology and Finance.

• Continue the aid model.

• Build a Cooperative Program.

• ?

4. GE as Transition

2. GE as Good PracticeSCP, Integrated

Strategies, CSR, TBL, disclosure

3. GE as Good Policies Prices, taxes, subsidies,

public investment, education, R&D

1. GE as Economic

Sector

Forests, land, water, biodiversity,

energy, sanitation

5. GE as DestinationPractices universalizedPolicies mainstreamedIncentive compatibility

ensured Economic structure

supportive

A Green Economy?

Green Economy: good bad ugly

• The Poetry: The last chance for the planet.

• The ugly prose: Abandon growth, make huge transfers from rich to poor.

• The bad prose: get the prices right– the Structural Adjustment example

• The good prose: Develop a cooperative program, e.g., on global infrastructure investment to promote

The Good, Bad, and Ugly

Energy and the Green Economy

• Renewable Energy central to all conceptions of green economy

• Approach RE as an infant industry:– Big Push: Frontload investment– Catalytic Public Funding: Finite, short term subsidy– Goal: bring about a rapid reduction in unit costs– Results: universal access in poor countries/ HH; energy

services to relieve pressure on renewable as well as non-renewable natural resources; drive growth process

– Global Feed in Tariff Fund

Energy