Emerging issues and new risk patterns: what is needed for identifying risk? Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP

Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for Integrated Disaster Risk Management

23-24 May 2006, WMO Geneva, Switzerland

Risk = Hazard x Element exposed x Vulnerability*

* UNDRO (1979), Natural Disasters and Vulnerability Analysis in Report of Expert Group Meeting

Risk evaluation

Expected Nb people killed, economical losses

Frequency and magnitude of the hazards

Population, infrastructures, … other element in the exposed areas

Degree of fragility of the exposed elements [0;1]

Physical Exposure

UNEP - PREVIEW databaseUsed for the UNDP Disaster Risk Index and for the Hotspots study (cyclones/volcanoes)

PREVIEW: Cyclones, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, forest fires, drought.

www.grid.unep.ch/preview

Modellisation of past tropical cyclones (1979 - 2005)

)( 1msV

Http://www.grid.unep.ch/data/grid/gnv200.php

Cyclone’sDirection

From frequency to exposuresique

Please visit www.grid.unep.ch/preview to see and access data on earthquakes, volcanoes, drought, forest fires, floods, cyclones, tsunami.

Vulnrability and developmentResult from the DRI analysis

How can risk increase ?

Hazard (new hazard, or higherfrequency or strength)

Element exposed

Vulnerability

Risk

Hazard

VulnerabilityElement exposed

A Growing population

The world population reaches 6.4 billions (2004)

+80 millions /year,

(equ. to the population of an additional country the size of Germany or Vietnam)

In 2050 we will be at least 9 billions

Urban population (%)

Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004

Urban world population

Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004

31.6% of urban population is living in slumsNASA, DSMP

Homo Sapiens: an urban species

Mexico city1973 (9 millions inhabitants)1986 (14 millions)2000 (20 millions)

On 19 sept. 1985 an earthquake stroke Mexico killing 9500 and causing more than 4 billions US$ damages (Em-Dat). At that time Mexico had around 14 millions inhab.

Increasing climatic disasters?

Data sources, OFDA/CRED, EM-DATThe OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net

P.Peduzzi, Environment & Poverty Times, UNEP, 2005

Glacier are losing between 0.2 and 1 m of thickness every year.

Aletsch glacier between 1905 and 2005 (Switzerland)

1/6 of world population depends on glaciers for water supply.

Rocks and debris are exposed

Permafrost limit is higher

Since mid-1960's, no hurricane has ever been observed in the South Atlantic.

Sources NASA: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12033

March 2004

Identifying hazards,… but there are surprises

Catarina, 4 killed, 350 mio US$ damages

• Highest number of Tropical cyclones. (26) (14 became tropical cyclones and 7 supercyclones). Previous record = 21 in 1933.

•2005 highest economical losses from climatic events: 200 billions US$ losses. (Katrina alone:125 billions US$).

•Strongest winds: Wilma gusts of winds reaching 330 km/h. Lowest central pressure 882 hPa (previous record 888 hPa - Gilbert in 1988).

• 2005, warmest year in northern hemisphere

Tropical cyclones affected by global warming ?

Sources: P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, (2005) Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science.

Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5 for the 15-year periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2004 for the different ocean basins

Debate on cyclic effect or global warming ?

Santa Cruz, Boliva: Land Use Change

Body text 1975: Forests

2000: agriculture fields for large companies

Deforestation and soil erosion/landslides?

Deforestation and landslides induced by tropical cyclones

P.Peduzzi, Environment & Poverty Times, UNEP, 2005

Date Mio ha

1900 14,5

1955 11,8

1965 9.0

1973 6,2

1980 4.0

19901 2,7

1 Harcourt et Collins (1992)2 FAO (2005)

Primary forest extent in Ivory Coast

20052 0.63

2005 – 1900: -95.65%

Effect of deforestation on precipitations ?

Cartography: UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Trend line -> y = 89.5936 - 0.0366651 x

Annual trend -> - 5.28 mm / year

Yearly average reduce by 374.9 mm lost between 1922 and 1993

Precipitations has a cyclic pattern… sure ?

Correlation between forest cover in Ivory Coastand precipitation in Dedougou

Mil request 600 mm For growing

Lake Chad (from 23’000 km2 to 300 km2 in 2001)

Sources: UNEP (2005) One planet Many People

• Landslides: higher frequencies due to higher permafrost limit at high altitude and from deforestation.

•Floods: higher frequency due to higher concentration of water vapour and higher evaporation.

• Tropical cyclones : either more frequent or more powerful. (Webster et al. 2005)

• Drought: higher evaporation might induce more frequent drought. Removal of vegetation reduces rains.

• Heatwave: probability of occurrence is increasing (Stott and al., 2005)

•Costal erosion: 15-20cm / century (Miller & Douglas 2005). Might cause 50-200 millions eco-refugees by 2080 (Nicholls, 2004).

Summary of environmental changes & hazards

• AIDS

• Conflicts

• Poverty

• Environmental degradation

Increase in Vulnerability

7 causes for failure in risk reduction

1. Ignorance of a new dangere.g. long latent periods before impacts

2. Under estimation of a danger: the wait & see approach.

3. Short-term vision e.g. decision taken from past situations without taking into account increase and changes.

4. Trust in future technologies that will solve the issue later.

5. Prioritizing economical/political benefits versus sustainable development (costly or unpopular decisions).

6. Following general move (e.g. not willing to apply stricter

rules if others do not apply them.)

7. Scare by costs of false alarm (crying wolf)

7 ways to improve risk management governance

1. Better consideration of scientific (early) warning

2. Identification of trends (incl. Climate change)

3. Development of plans for urban growth (and land planning).

4. Prioritise sustainable use of resources over short-term benefit (protection of oceans, forest, climate).

5. Apply precautionary Principle.

6. Eliminate corruption.

7. Take long term impacts / costs into consideration for decision making

7 needs for risk reduction1. Improve understanding of new issues

(climate change, risk patterns and trends).

2. Free access to data on risk issues (e.g. precipitation, temperature, natural resources) for

stimulating researches.

3. Better public support of monitoring centres (such as meteorological stations).

4. New law and control enforcements

5. Place scientists, industries and politics at the same table.

6. Develop public awareness (schools, media,…)

7. Better understanding of interconnectivity between natural features & hazards, SST.

References:P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, (2005), Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science.

Nicholls, R.J., (2004), Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios". In Global Environmental Change, 14(1):69-86.

Miller, l., B.C. Douglas, (2004), Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level rise”, in Nature, Vol. 428, pp.406-409.

UNEP, (2005), One Planet Many People: an atlas of our changing environment. 334 p.

Migraine, J.B., P. Peduzzi (under preparation), Analysing global precipitation trends (1901 - 2000)

Peduzzi, P., C. Herold, W. Silverio, (under preparation), Impacts of climate change on Coropuna glacier and related threat on water supplies.

Peduzzi, P. (2005), Tropical cyclones: paying a high price for environmental destruction, in Environment & Poverty Times, No.3, Special Edition for the World Conference on Disaster Reduction January 18-22, 2005, Kobe, Japan.

Giuliani, G., A., De Bono, K., Kluser, P., Peduzzi (2004), Overfishing, a major threat to the global marine ecology. UNEP

Thank you

Please visitwww.grid.unep.ch/preview

Late lessons from Early Warning:the precautionary principle 1896-2000

http://www.energyrisks.jrc.nl/library/LibraryChapter2/Chapter2pdfs/Precautionary-Principle-EEA-Harremoes.pdf

Sources UNDP 2003Sources UNDP 2003