Elevated atmospheric CO2 and wheat production in Australia

Glenn Fitzgerald, Michael Tausz, Garry O’Leary, Saman Seneweera, Sabine Posch, Robert Norton, Mahabubur Mollah, Jason Brand, Roger Armstrong,

Nicole Mathers, Jo Luck, Piotr Trebicki, Wendy Griffiths, Joe Panozzo, James Nuttall, Debra Partington

Background

Elevated CO2 Interactions• [CO2] is rising (~385 ppm currently)

• Temperature is rising• Water availability is changing• All affect crop growth, yield, quality

• [CO2] is rising (~385 ppm currently)• [CO2] is rising (~385 ppm currently)

• Temperature is risingImpact of eCO2 on wheat industry = assess interactions of these 3 factors

• Glasshouses• Open topped chambers• Gradient tunnels• Enclosed Chambers

• Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE)

Techniques to Study elevated CO2

FACE provides the most realistic assessment of elevated CO2 on plant/crop responses because plants are not enclosed.

FACE Internationally

TasFACETree chambers at HawkesburySoyFACE (Illinois, US)CAS FACE WuxiCAAS FACE ChangpingRiceFACE phase II

> 30 sites around the globe

Horsham& Walpeup

AGFACE Framework

Cropmodelling

Landscape &future climatemodels

Prediction“what if”

Agronomic responses (traits, grain quality) pre-breedersPhysiology explain agronomic responsesSoil understand C and N dynamics (cropping systems)Pests and diseases plant-pest dynamics

Validation& confidence

Includes changes to temperature and rainfall

Measure Model Predict

AdaptFieldexperiment

Australian Wheat Belt

Horsham& Walpeup

AGFACE (laboratory w/o walls) Range of environments for wheat (water, N, temperature, variety, soil type) to test interactions with eCO2 (550 ppm) Quantify agronomic & physiological effects of eCO2 in low rainfall (330-450 mm/yr) / low yield (1-4 t/ha) production zones Provide validation data under future [CO2] for crop modelling of wheat quality and yield Industry and government to inform adaptation policy Understand and model changes to crop-pest dynamics Soil type & crop-N cycling interactions

7.5 ha

Experimental Results

Yield Response (%)

Yield stimulation due to eCO2:

Changes to production

More stimulation at drier location (Walpeup):Changes in water use efficiency?

+49

+61

--

Walpeup2Year Horsham1

2007 Yield +22

2008 Yield +25

2009 Yield +26

% increase due to eCO2

1 Horsham = mean Yitpi & Janz2 Walpeup = Yitpi only

Straw N and Grain Protein Response

Decreases in grain protein: human nutrition impacts

Increases in N uptakes:N management implications

-13

--

-11

+63

--

--

Walpeup2Year Horsham1

2007 N uptake --

Grain protein

-5

2008 N uptake +24

Grain protein

-4

2009 N uptake +25

Grain protein

-8

% increase due to eCO2

1 Horsham = mean 2 cultivars, 2 Walpeup = 1 cultivar

SR: Pathogen fecundity, disease progress and cultivar resistance not significantly influenced by eCO2

May not be a disease risk in future

CR: Fungal biomass of Fusarium pseudograminerarum significantly increased in wheat grown under eCO2

In absence of high levels of varietal resistance, crown rot will result in a reduction in yield (and quality) in future climates, particularly in drier years

Wheat Stripe Rust & Crown Rot

Modelling Results

Increases and Decreases in Yield

BUT,

Despite experimental yield increases, due to future predicted changes in rainfall and increases in temperature:

• Semi-arid zone: Yield LOSS (-10 to -20%) in North West Victoria

• HRZ: Yield GAINS (+10 to +20%) in the South West

Shift in Sowing Date Maintains Yields

Sowing 1 July Historic

Sowing 1 Aug 2050

preliminary

• Crop yield decreases by decade (present-day long-season cv. type)

• Southern region (HRZ - dark blue) yields still increasing in 2070

CSIRO CCAM Mark 3 present-day long-season cv.

Prediction: Changes over Space & Time

Can we adapt?Breeding

Tillering response (& other traits)Long season cultivar development

Crop managementSowing dateRotation systems

Modelling informs: where, when, how much?Shifts in agricultural production across landscape Infrastructure

We invite collaborations in our AGFACE research

Collaborators:La Trobe UniversityMonash UniversityCSIRO (pests, modelling, cultivars)USDA-ARS

Harvard Medical SchoolUniversity of Illinois (SoyFACE)Kansas State UniversityNZ Plant & Food ResearchInternational Plant Nutrition Institute

NASACIMMYT (Mexico)EMBRAPA (Brazil)University of IdahoUniversity of Florida