Elections, Campaigns, & Voting

The who, what, when, where, why, and how of political participation

The Election Process

Nomination (Primaries)

First you have to win your party’s nomination

Doing well early on matters (remember Howard Dean?)

Mostly decided by primary voting today (not caucuses)◦Open Primaries◦Closed Primaries

Announced at Convention

General ElectionWhen we actually vote for

president (or congressperson, or whomever)◦Formal eligibility requirements

See Constitution

◦Informal requirements White Wealthy Well known Ok, not really, but it seems to help…

The Electoral College

The Electoral College

Under the original Constitution people didn’t vote for the president directly

Each state appointed “electors” equal to the number of representatives in Congress to form an electoral college and make a decision

The college still exists, though it’s pretty much a rubber stamp now (and widely criticized)

It forces politicians to focus on states, not just individual voters (see voting strategies section later on in this presentation)

How to win

How to WinRun an effective campaign

Get the media on your side

Raise and spend money like there’s no tomorrow (more on this in a bit)

It also helps to be an incumbent

Incumbent victories in Congress

Incumbent victories in Congress

Incumbents (those seeking reelection)◦90% of House incumbents win◦70% of Senate incumbents win

Advantages of incumbents:◦Name Recognition◦Campaign Contributions◦Resources of Office (franking

privilege)

How should you run a campaign?

It’s not JUST money

Hire professional campaign consultants◦Manager, fund raiser, media guy (or

gal), etc.Follow polls closelyUse the media effectivelyAdvertise

◦Marketing/PackagingDon’t be afraid to go negativeHAVE A STRATEGY !

Strategy?

Campaign Strategies

Front-End strategy◦Especially during the primaries

Big-State strategyBattleground-State strategyFocus on the undecided (swing

voters)Insider vs. OutsiderHave a clear and consistent

message

Understand how voters voteRetrospective Voting

◦It’s the economy stupid!

Prospective Voting◦What will you do for me?

Non Voting◦Why should I give a damn?

Campaign Finance

How much do campaigns cost?

A LOT!◦House: $1,000,000 every two years◦Senate $10,000,000 every six years

$25-50 million in large states◦The 2006 Congressional Campaigns

cost a total of $1.5 billion◦The 2008 Presidential Campaigns cost

a total of $2.4 billion◦Total spending on campaigns for

elections in 2008 was about $5.3 billion

What can you do with $5.3 billion?

Buy every single share of stock in China’s largest oil company

Buy everything the US exported to China in 2006

Buy MCI

Give every US citizen about $17.50

How the #%&!! do they raise that much?

Public Money (there’s a box on your tax form), but it comes with strings attached

Small Donations (Obama cleaned up on the internet with small donations)

Large Individual Donors ($2,300 limit)

Self-Financing (Hillary had lots of debt)

Indirect donations ◦PAC’s, 527 groups, etc.

Campaign Finance Reform

Reforms and LoopholesLimit Direct Donations

Independent Expenditures & Soft Money

Limit Soft MoneyFormation of PAC’s

Limit PAC Influence527 Groups

Reporting RequirementsActually pretty successful

Recent Developments?Fewer limits on private businesses (freedom of speech)

The Pros and Cons of Reform

PROSMoney makes

people unequal and that’s undemocratic

We have better things to spend money on

The rich are the ones who LEAST need extra influence

CONSLimits on donations

infringe on freedom of speech and that’s undemocratic

Strict rules actually hurt the little guys

There’s always a loophole somewhere

To vote or not to vote…

Voter turnout in national elections

Why Americans don’t vote as much as other nationalities

Independent registration requirements

Lots of elections (on Tuesdays)

Little difference between parties

They don’t have to

US turnout by state (2004)

US turnout by age

US turnout by race (etc.)

US turnout by wealth

Why Certain Americans don’t vote

Socioeconomic Factors

First off, correlation does not imply causation

Factors associated with low turnout◦Young or very old◦Poor◦Uneducated◦Minority status

◦Even religion seems to matter

Attitudes towards voting

ApathyAlienationVoter FatigueRational AbstentionCivic DutyPartisanship, interest, concern,

etc.◦Salience (how much things matter)

Is low participation a bad thing?

NOPeople who don’t

care and are uninformed shouldn’t have an influence over important policy decisions

Experts make better, more stable choices

YESAs fewer people

vote, those who do become less and less representative of the population as a whole

Also, low participation reflects a break down of all societal ties