Election Chartbooknamavoice.org/uploads/sites/103/Presidential Election Deck FINAL... · Election...

Election ChartbookA compendium of slides

on the 2016 election

October 20, 2016

Producer: Owen MinottContributions from: Alex Perry, Katharine

Conlon, Justin C. Brown, Owen Minott, Ben Booker, Libbie Wilcox,

Madelaine PisaniDirector: Afzal Bari

Table of ContentsChapter 1: Reference Slides and Election Indicators…...……..Chapter 2: Polling Numbers and Other Statistics…..…......…Chapter 3: Campaign Finance and Super PACs……….……….Chapter 4: Clinton’s Campaign………………………….…….……..Chapter 5: Trump’s Campaign………………………..…….……….Chapter 6: Issues and Events Impacting the Election..........Chapter 7: Trump and Clinton on the Issues........................Chapter 8: Battleground State Strategies……………….……..Chapter 9: Debate Intel………………………………………..………

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Chapter 1Reference Slides and Election Indicators

State of the presidential race: July 2016

October 19, 2016 | Justin C. Brown

Sources: Kyle Trygstad, “Where Things Stand at the Midpoint of the Year,” National Journal, July 5, 2016; Huffpost Pollster,, 2016.

STATE OF THE RACE

While the President has seen his approval ratings rise, boding well for Clinton, most still believe that the nation is on the wrong track, giving hope to Donald Trump’s campaign.

Since the first debate, and the following leaked tape of Trump’s comments about sexually assaulting women, Trump has steadily fallen in the polls

General election polling

Polling averages by HuffPost Pollster as of 10/19/2016

Clinton Trump

48.9% 40.7%

51.3%

“All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are on the wrong track?”

■ Right Direction ■ Wrong Track

President Obama has seen his approval ratings consistently rise since Christmas 2015. In December his approval rating was averaging at about 43%.

Presidential approval rating

4

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZ

NM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

AK

Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio are complete toss ups

COOK POLITICAL REPORT ELECTORAL RATINGS

October 19, 2016 | Ben Booker and Owen Minott

Source: Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings, September 23, 2016.

■ Solid Democrat ■ Likely Democrat ■ Lean Democrat ■ Toss Up ■ Lean Republican ■ Likely Republican ■ Solid Republican

Map of Cook Political Report’s electoral college ratings

DE

RI

VT

NHMA

CTNJ

MDDC

Cook ratings point too close race in presidential election

October 14, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr. and Madelaine Pisani

Source: Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings, September 30, 2016.

COOK POLITICAL REPORT ELECTORAL RATINGS

The Cook Political Report: Electoral College ratings

Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Likely R Solid R

15 STATES

California (55)Connecticut (7)

Delaware (3)D.C. (3)

Hawaii (4)Illinois (20)

Maine-01 (1)Maryland (10)

Massachusetts (11)New Jersey (14)New Mexico (5)New York (29)

Oregon (7)Rhode Island (4)

Vermont (3)Washington (12)

3 STATES*

Maine-AL (2)Minnesota (10)

Virginia (13)

5 STATES

Michigan (16)New Hampshire (4)Pennsylvania (20)

Wisconsin (10)Colorado (9)

4 STATES*

Florida (29)Nebraska-02 (1)

Nevada (6)North Carolina (15)

Ohio (18)

3 STATES

Arizona (11)Georgia (16)

Iowa (6)Maine-02 (1)

3 STATES

Indiana (11)Missouri (10)

Utah (6)

18 STATES

Alabama (9)Alaska (3)

Arkansas (6)Idaho (4)

Kansas (6)Kentucky (8)Louisiana (8)

Mississippi (6)Montana (3)

Nebraska-AL (2)Nebraska-01 (1)Nebraska-03 (1)North Dakota (3)

Oklahoma (7)South Carolina (9)South Dakota (3)Tennessee (11)

Texas (38)West Virginia (5)

Wyoming (3)

188 EV 25 EV 59 EV 70 EV 33 EV 27 EV 136 EV

*Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes

Sources: Colin Diersing, “Johnson, Stein fade in closing weeks,” National Journal, October 11, 2016.

Voters age 18-34 in four-way race

October 14, 2016 | Libbie Wilcox 2

HOTLINE PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE

Based on headlines from National Journal’s Hotline

Johnson, Stein fade in closing weeks as young voters move away from third parties

Quinnipiac national pool: September 8 – 13 v. October 5 – 6

■ Clinton ■ Trump ■ Johnson ■ Stein

Analysis •Young voters have shifted their support from third party candidates to Clinton over the last month •Johnson’s support among millennials declined 18 percentage points, while Stein’s support fell 6 percentage points


More traditionally Republican editorial boards come out in support of Clinton

Sources: Karyn Bruggeman, “Clinton draws large crowd at Ohio State,” National Journal, October 11, 2016.


4

Conservative newspaper endorsement tracker

October 14, 2016 | Libbie Wilcox

Never in their 148-year history September 30, 2016

Over 100 years September 23, 2016

Never in their 36-year history September 27, 2016

Over 100 years October, 9, 2016

Over 75 years September 7, 2016

Name Date of last Dem endorsement Date of Clinton endorsement

Women favor Clinton, ,en lean Trump this election cycle

October 18, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr.

Source: Pew Research Center, 2016.

Support for presidential candidates and parties by gender

Pew Research Center, August – September 2016

Men

Women

PRESIDENTIAL DEMOGRAPHIC POLLING

■ Trump’s margin of lead in polls ■ GOP’s margin of lead among all registered voters ■ Clinton’s margin of lead in polls ■ Democrats’ margin of lead among all registered voters

Clinton has overwhelming lead among African American voters



Support for presidential candidates and parties by race

White

Black



Latino


Clinton team hopes for high youth turnout on election day



Support for presidential candidates and parties by age group

Young voters

Early middle-aged voters



Older voters

Late middle-aged voters

18-29 for candidates18-35 for parties



65+ for candidates71-88 for parties


Voters with postgraduate degrees prefer Clinton



Support for presidential candidates and parties by age group

Postgrad

College grad



High School or less

Some college

even


Third party challengers prepare their campaigns for 2016,Libertarian ticket may be attractive to voters

THIRD PARTY CAMPAIGNS

September 30, 2016 | Justin C. Brown

Analysis• The Johnson-Weld ticket was confirmed on May 29 and

became the first ticket of any party to consist of two governors since the 1948 election cycle.

• Gary Johnson is running on a platform that is socially liberal and fiscally conservative, a political ideology that currently resonates well in the Mountain West and the Northeast: two regions in which both candidates have political experience.

• Johnson was shown to be polling at 13% in the state of Utah, a historically Republican state that largely refuses to back Donald Trump. Nationally, he has hovered around 7%.

• The ticket is currently on the ballot in 37 states and working on access in all 50 states.

Major third party candidates in 2016

Name Gary Johnson

Party Libertarian

Last Political Position Held

Governor of New Mexico (1995-2003)

Vice President

William Weld, Former Gov. of Massachusetts

Sources: Julia Azari, “The States that Love (and Hate) Third-Party Candidates,” FiveThirtyEight, July 6, 2016; Libertarian Party, “2016 Presidential Ballot Access Map,”; Bernie Quigley. “Gary Johnson and William Weld Could Bring a Libertarian Awakening,” The Hill, May 23, 2016; Nora Kelly “Gary Johnson is Having a Good Day,” The Atlantic, May 24,2016; Lindsay Castleberry, “Right Down the Middle: Gary Johnson Sticks to the Issues,” Fox Business, July 6, 2016; Bill Scher, “Think You’ve got it Locked, Hillary? Meet Jill Stein,” Politico, June 19, 2016; Jill 2016, “Dr. Jill Stein Secures Green Presidential Nomination,” June 15, 2016.

Name Jill Stein

Party Green

Last Political Position Held

Lexington, MA Town Meeting Member (1995-2011)

Vice President

TBD

Analysis•Jill Stein has yet to be officially awarded the Green Party nomination, however she is seen as the presumptive nominee after winning nominating contests in 29 states. •Stein has committed to running on a platform that very much resembles Bernie Sanders’ policy goals but Stein’s approach has been called slightly “more pacifist” and “more ambitious.”•Stein has been polling nationally around 5% but has failed to show a promising regional appeal from which she could make an impact on the electoral college vote. •The Green Party is expected to have ballot access in 47 states as 3 states’ petition processes have given the party trouble.

13

Sources: Washington Post, “2016 Primary Debate Schedules,” March 16, 2015; FrontloadingHQ, “The 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar,” 2016.

September 30, 2016 | Katharine Conlon, Justin Brown and Christine Yan

2016 ELECTION CALENDAR

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27 28 29 30

2016 election calendar■ Election Date ■ Debate ■ FEC Deadline ■ Convention

March

June July August

September October November

December

April MayMar. I: Caucuses (AK GOP, CO Dem., CO GOP, MN, ND GOP, WY GOP)

Primaries (AL, AR, GA, MA, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA)Mar. 3: Fox News GOP Primary DebateMar. 5: LA Primary, GOP Caucuses (KY, ME, KS), Dem. Caucuses (KS, NE)Mar. 6: ME Dem. Caucus, PR GOP Primary, Democratic Primary DebateMar. 8: Primaries (MI, MS, ID Rep.), HI GOP CaucusMar. 9: Univision/The Washington Post Democratic Primary Debate Mar. 10: CNN/Salem Radio GOP Primary Debate Mar. 15: Primaries (IL, MO, FL, NC, OH), MP GOP caucusMar. 22: AZ Primary, Caucuses (ID Dem., UT Dem., UT Rep.)Mar. 26: Dem. Caucuses (AK, HI, WA)

Apr. 5: WI PrimaryApr. 9: WY Dem. CaucusApr. 14: CNN/NY1 Democratic Primary DebateApr. 15: FEC Filing DeadlineApr. 19: NY PrimaryApr. 26: Primaries (CT, DE, PA, MD, RI)

May 3: IN Primary May 10: Primaries (NE GOP, WV)May 17: Primaries (KY Dem., OR)May 24: WA GOP Primary

June 7: Primaries (CA, MT, NJ, NM, SD), ND Dem. CaucusJune 14: DC Dem. Primary June 28: UT Primary

July 15: FEC Filing DeadlineJuly 18-21: Republican Nat’l Convention (Cleveland, OH)July 25-28: Democratic Nat’l Convention (Philadelphia, PA)

Sept. 26: First Presidential Debate

Oct. 4: Vice Presidential DebateOct. 9: Second Presidential DebateOct. 15: FEC Filing DeadlineOct. 19: Third Presidential Debate

Nov. 8: Election day

14

2016 PRESIDENTIAL DELEGATE TRACKER

AP calls Democratic presidential primary for Hillary Clinton, Trump clinches GOP nomination

Democratic delegate count

September 30, 2016 | Alexander Perry, Christine Yan, and Katharine Conlon

Sources: Associated Press, Delegate Tracker; Politico, Delegate Tracker.

Clinton Trump

Sanders

Republican delegate count

■ Allocated Delegates

2,383 Delegates Needed to Win the Democratic Nomination

■ Allocated Delegates

1,237 Delegates Needed to Win the Republican Nomination

Total 2,472DelegatesWin

Needs 672 delegates

Win:2,806/4,765

Short 503 delegates

Cruz and Kasich suspended their campaigns the first week of May

15

16October 14, 2016 | Libbie Wilcox

Sources: Ally Mutnick and Colin Diersing, “PEW analysis shows Hispanic perceptions of parties largely unchanged,” October 13, 2016.



Which party has more concern for Latinos

Pew Research Center National Survey of Latinos, August 23 – September 21

Pew analysis shows Hispanic perceptions of parties largely unchanged

Analysis •75% of Hispanic registered voters have discussed Trump’s comments about Hispanics and other minorities in the last year•74% of Hispanic registered voters who have discussed Trump’s comments are “absolutely certain they will vote”

■ Democratic Party ■ Republican Party ■ No difference

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP

California, Texas, Florida and New Yorkhold large electoral power

Source: U.S. Electoral College, “Distribution of Electoral Votes,” National Archives, December 10, 2010; National Journal Research, 2015.

September 30, 2016 | Katharine Conlon, Christine Yan

Number of electoral votes per state

■ 3-5 ■ 6-8 ■ 9-13 ■ 14-25 ■ 26-55

Analysis

•The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, and a majority of 270 electoral votes is needed to elect a President.•Each state is allocated electors based on the number of members of Congress it has. In addition, DC has 3 electors. •Except for Maine and Nebraska, states have a “winner-take-all” system which allots all the electoral votes in the state to the winning candidate.

17

CONSISTENTLY DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN STATES

Based on past presidential elections, Democrats may hold a slight advantage heading into 2016 general election

Sources: Archives.gov, “US Electoral College”; National Journal, Charlie Cook, “Is Clinton’s Tide Shifting?”; Politifact.com, “18 States Have Voted Democratic in Six Consecutive Elections with 242 Electoral Votes, George Will Says”

September 30, 2016 | Christine Yan

States that voted consistently in the past six presidential elections

■ Voted Republican every election since 1992 ■ Voted Democratic every election since 1992

Analysis

• Democrats won 18 states plus the District of Columbia six times in a row, which in 2016 would earn 242 electoral votes, about 90 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

• In contrast, Republicans consistently carried 13 states over the last six elections, which in 2016 would earn the party 102 electoral votes, 38 percent of the 270 needed to win.

• For more information on the political climate of the presidential primary, read Charlie Cook’s analysis.

Share of Electoral Votes Historically Won by Democrats and Republicans since 1992

270 needed to win presidential election

18

http://www.nationaljournal.com/md/50937/cooks-tour-american-politics-economics

34 states allow a form of in-person early voting

EARLY VOTING MAP


Sources: National Conference of State Legislatures, “Absentee and Early Voting,” January 5, 2016; U.S. Vote Foundation, “State Election Dates and Deadlines,” Accessed February 12, 2016

Analysis

•13 highlighted states do not legally have early voting but have “In-person absentee” voting, allowing a voter to apply in person for an absentee ballot, without an excuse, and cast that ballot in one trip to an election official’s office.

In-person early voting laws, by state

■ Early in-person voting ■ No early in-person voting

19

After two-term presidencies, parties rarely maintain control of the White House

September 30, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr.

Sources: “Post-World War II Presidential Elections Following Second Presidential Term,” Cook Political Report, Dece,ber 6, 2016; “Presidential Approval Ratings -- Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends,” Gallup; RealClearPolitics, 2016.

HISTORICAL ELECTION TRENDS

Presidential election results following 2nd presidential term

1960-2008

Year President Party 2nd Term Approval Party Election Result

1960 Eisenhower Republican 61% Democrats take White House

1968 Kennedy/Johnson Democrat 50% Republicans take White House

1976 Nixon/Ford Republican 53% Democrats take White House

1988 Reagan Republican 55% Republicans keep White House

2000 Clinton Democrat 61%Republicans take White House

(Dems win popular vote)

2008 G. W. Bush Republican 37% Democrats take White House

2016 Obama Democrat 50% ?

20

The Democratic advantage: a diversifying electorate

September 30, 2016 | Christine Yan

Sources: Thom File, “The Diversifying Electorate – Voting Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2012 (and Other Recent Elections),” Census.gov, May 2013

PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS BY RACE

Percentage of voters in past presidential elections by race

■ Whites ■ Blacks ■ Hispanics ■ Asians

Analysis

•Democrats’ hopes of holding the White House rest on remobilizing the Obama coalition of millennials, single women, and nonwhite voters•Minorities are less likely to vote GOP; the trend of a diversifying electorate in recent elections is an advantage for Democrats

Contributions from Josh Krashaaur

21

The GOP advantage: desire for change

September 30, 2016 | Christine Yan, Justin C. Brown

Sources: Gallup.com, Jan 4-10, 2016; NBC/WSJ Poll, Dec 6-9, 2015.

PRESIDENTIAL JOB APPROVAL AND DESIRE FOR CHANGE

Percentage responding to question:

“All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are on the wrong track?”

■ Wrong Direction ■ Right Direction

Obama’s presidential job approval

(Gallup Poll)

■ Disapprove ■ Approve

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Disapprove:50%

Approve:46%

Wrong Direction:

66%

Right Direction:

20%

22

New data shows that 2012 voters were whiter, older and less educated than previously thought


Source: Nate Cohn, “There Are More White Voters Than People Think. That’s Good News for Trump,” The New York Times, June 9, 2016.

2012 VOTER DATA

■ Exit Polls ■ Voter File

Voter data: exit polls v. voter file

2012 Election

Why this is good news for Trump:

• Exit poll data from 2012 led many to believe that Republicans would need to make inroads with young and non-white voters to win future elections

• Trump has not successfully courted those two demographics, but he polls well with old, uneducated whites

• However, the new voter file and census data suggests that Trump may have a path to victory that does not require increased support from minority and young voters

The voter file, a compilation of local records of all registered voters, is a more reliable sources than exit polls. Census data closely mirrored the voter file numbers.

23

GOP making gains in swing state voting registration


Source: State registration data; Ben Schrekinger, “Hope for Trump: GOP Winning Registration Race in Key States,” Politico, August 22, 2016; John McCormick, “Battleground-State Voter Registration Gives Democrats Early Edge,” Bloomberg, March 13, 2016.

VOTER REGISTRATION DATA

■ Democrats 2014 ■ Democrats 2016 ■ Republicans 2014 ■ Republicans 2016

Registered voters, by party

Millions of people

• Republicans have a much a greater increase in voter registration than Democrats in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Iowa

• However, Democrats have done a better job at increasing voter turnout in Hispanic-heavy western states Colorado, Nevada and Arizona

24

2016 and future elections may see new swing states


Source: Ben Kamisar, “5 Unexpected States That Could Be Battlegrounds,” The Hill, June 6, 2016.

NEW POTENTIAL BATTLEGROUND STATES

4 new potential battleground states

Utah has been one of the most reliably red states in the US, voting Republican in each of the past 12 presidential elections. A June poll had Clinton and Trump tied with 35%; Libertarian Gary Johnson trails with 13%. Mormons could play a role in turning Utah blue. In the GOP primary, Trump came in last place and over 50 points behind Cruz. Mitt Romney, a prominent Mormon, has been a vocal critic of Trump.

Arizona is home to the fifth-highest number of eligible Hispanic voters in all of the states, although less than half of the Hispanic population is eligible to vote due to a lack of voter registration or citizenship. Reports show Hispanic voter registration on the rise, and 89% of Hispanic people view Trump unfavorably. A June poll in the state showed Trump with only a 4-point lead.

In Georgia, Clinton is looking to replicate her husband’s success: Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. Despite Republicans holding all statewide positions and winning the last five presidential elections here, the four major polls from May had Trump leading by less than 10% (his largest lead was 9% and his smallest was 1). Clinton polls much, much better among black Georgians, and 81% of the states growth between 2000-2010 came from minorities.

Michigan has voted blue in the past six elections, but Trump’s populist rhetoric and aggressive push against trade deals could carry him to victory. Polls from early spring had Clinton up by double digits, but a late May poll had her up only 4 points.

25

Reported voting rates in presidential election years, by age

Americans 45 and over are more likely to vote than younger Americans

October 3, 2016 | Katharine Conlon

Sources: United State Census, “Reported Voting Rates in Presidential Election Years, by Selected Characteristics: November 1964 to 2012,” Historical Time Series Tables, 2013.

VOTING RATES BY AGE

■ 65+ ■ 45 - 64 ■ 25 - 44 ■ 18 - 24

26

Reported voting rates in presidential election years, by gender

■ Male ■ Female

In recent years, females have been more likely to vote than males at the polls


Sources: United State Census, “Reported Voting Rates in Presidential Election Years, by Selected Characteristics: November 1964 to 2012,” Historical Time Series Tables, 2013.

VOTING RATES BY GENDER

27

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Identification with U.S. political partiesnears all-time low

U.S. party identification

September 30, 2016 | Owen Minott

Source: Gallup, “Democratic, Republican Identification Near Historical Lows,” January 11, 2016.

■ Republican ■ Independent ■ Democratic

When asked which party they lean towards, independents split evenly between Democrats (16%) and Republicans (16%)

The number of adults identifying as Democrats (29%) is at an all-time historical low since Gallup began asking this question in 1958

28

Yearly averages, all adults

Government is seen as biggest problem in US second year in a row

October 3, 2016 | Christine Yan

Sources: Lydia Saad, “Government Named Top U.S. Problem for Second Straight Year,” Gallup, January 4, 2016

PROBLEMS FACING THE US

Percentage of respondents on most important problem facing the US

Annual average percentage across monthly measures for each year

■ Government ■ Economy ■ Unemployment ■ Iraq/ISIS ■ Immigration

Government

Economy

Unemployment, Immigration

Iraq/ISIS

29

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZ

NM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

AK

High voter turnout for primary elections in the rust belt

VOTER TURNOUT IN PRIMARY ELECTIONSPRESENTATION CENTER


Source: Michael P McDonald, “State Turnout Rates, 2016,” United States Elections Project, 2016.

■ 1-20% ■ 21% - 30% ■ 31% - 40% ■ 40%+

2016 primary presidential election voter turnout rate

Based on Voting-Eligible Population

NH

VT

No data available: CA, CO, MT, NJ, NM, SD, WA, WY

30

Trump received the most GOP primary votes in history


PRIMARY VOTES

Number of primary votes for the Republican nominee, in millions

Source: Gwynn Guilford, “Trump Really Did Win the Most Republican Primary Votes in History—Technically,” Quartz, June 9, 2016.

31

Obama holds the record for primary votes from his 2008 campaign


Source: Gwynn Guilford, “Trump Really Did Win the Most Republican Primary Votes in History—Technically,” Quartz, June 9, 2016.

PRIMARY VOTES

Number of primary votes for the nominees of both parties, in millions

32

REPUBLICANS AGAINST TRUMPPRESENTATION CENTER

Trump’s campaign success is dividing Republicansin many offices throughout the nation

Current Republican elected officials who will not support Donald Trump

“This man does things and says things that I teach my six-and three-year-olds not to say… I could never look them in the eye and tell them that I support someone so crass and insulting and offensive…” – Rep. Carlos Curbelo

“I will not support a nominee so lacking in the judgment, temperament and character needed to be our nation’s commander in chief. Accordingly, if left with no alternative, I will not support Trump in the general election should he become our Republican nomine.” – Rep. Scott Rigell

“I’m not going to vote for him in November… I’m not willing to concede that the Republican nomination is over and… you guys shouldn’t either.” – Gov. Charlie Baker

3 House Representatives:

March 24, 2016 | Justin C. Brown

Sources: Anna Merod, Christina Coleburn and MSNBC Staff, “Meet the Republicans Speaking Out Against Trump,” MSNBC, March 14, 2016.

Scott Rigell (VA-02)

2 Senators:

Ben Sasse (NE)Lindsey Graham (SC)

2 Governors:

Susana Martinez (NM) Charlie Baker (MA)

Carlos Curbelo (FL-26) Glenn Grothman (WI-06)

33

David Wasserman: over 100 House Republicans yet to endorse Trump by name

July 20, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr.

David Wasserman, “Republicans' Support for Trump Depends on Their Vulnerability,” Cook Political Report, July 8, 2016.

GOP CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT FOR TRUMP

Level of support for Trump among Republicans in the House

Most Supportive of Trump

Least Supportive of Trump

Key:

1. Endorsed Trump by name before the Indiana primary*2. Endorsed Trump by name after the Indiana primary*3. Has endorsed Trump by name, with reservations4. Has stated support for the "nominee," but not by name5. Hasn't made a definitive public statement regarding Trump6. Publicly undecided on whether to support Trump7. Has stated he/she will not vote for or endorse Trump

% of Republican Representatives■ Number of Representatives

From the Cook Political Report

*After the Indiana primary, Ted Cruz dropped out of the race and Trump became the presumptive nominee

4.5%

27.9%

27.5%

18.6%

8.5%

8.1%

4.9%

34

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9746

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

AK

Gary Johnson leads Libertarian party to ballot access in all 50 states

THIRD PARTY BALLOT ACCESS


Source: Libertarian Party, “2016 Presidential Ballot Access Map,” 2016.

■ On the ballot

Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party currently have the most accessible third party ticket as they are confirmed to be on the ballot in all 50 states and DC. This marks the first time since 1996 that a third-party candidate has secured full ballot access across the country.

Libertarian party presidential ballot access

1

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WVVA

PA

NY

ME

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SC

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TN

KY

IN

MI

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MN

IL

LATX

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ID

NV

OR

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CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

AK

Jill Stein gains ballot access in most states,only shut out of 3 states


Source: Green Party US, “Ballot Access,” 2016.

■ On the ballot ■ Write-in option only ■ No ballot line or write-in option

Green party presidential ballot access

The Green Party has ballot access in 44 states and DCwhile voters can write-in Jill Stein in GA, IN and NC.

THIRD PARTY BALLOT ACCESS

2

Chapter 2Polling Numbers and Other Statistics

GENERAL ELECTION POLLING

Clinton leads Trump in polls across the board

Comparison of national polls

October 26, 2016 | Justin Brown and Owen Minott

Source: Huffpost Pollster, “2016 General Election: Trump v. Clinton v. Johnson,” October 26, 2016.

Poll: ABCNews/WaPo CBS/NYT CNN/ORC Fox News NBC/WSJ

Date of Last Poll: 10/22-10/25 9/28-10/2 10/20-10/23 10/15-10/17 10/10-10/13

Hillary Clinton 48 45 49 44 48

Donald Trump 42 41 44 41 37

Gary Johnson 5 8 3 7 7

Undecided 3 3 2 4 3

30

35

40

45

50

55

7/5/2015 9/5/2015 11/5/2015 1/5/2016 3/5/2016 5/5/2016 7/5/2016 9/5/2016

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING

If Trump were to win the election it would be the biggest late comeback in the history of presidential polls

Major moments from the Clinton and Trump campaigns

Sources: Eliza Collins, “12 quotable moments from Hillary Clinton’s primary campaign,” USA Today, June 7, 2016; Clare Foran, “The end of a political revolution,” The Atlantic, July 6, 2016; RealClearPolitics 2-way polling average, September 22, 2016; Liz Kreutz, “Hillary Clinton’s 10 memorable moments in a year long campaign,” ABC, April 12, 2016; RealClrearPolitics National Polling Average, October 19, 2016.

October 19, 2016 | Madelaine Pisani 4

■ Hillary Clinton ■ Donald Trump

RealClearPolitics National Polling Average in a 2-way matchup

8/6/2015

First Republican Debate

Oct. 2015

Benghazi hearings

11/13/2015

Paris Attacks

12/7/2015

Trump’s Muslim Ban

7/25-28/2016

Democratic National Convention

6/6/2016

Clinton becomes the presumptive nominee

7/18-21/2016

Republican National Convention

2/1/2016

Clinton wins the Iowa Caucuses

2/9/2016

Trump wins NH Primary

10/7/2016

Washington Post uncovers a 2005 tape of Trump making lewd remarks

5/3/2016

Ted Cruz drops out, Trump becomes presumptive nominee

40

40.5

41

41.5

42

42.5

43

43.5

44

44.5

45

9/7/2016 9/14/2016 9/21/2016 9/28/2016 10/5/2016 10/12/2016 10/19/2016


The release of Trump’s 1995 tax returns and the 2005 Access Hollywood video weigh heavily on his campaign

Major moments in Trump’s campaign from 9/7/2016 to 10/19/2016

Sources: Katie Smith, “The rise of Trump: 26 weeks that changed 2016,” USA Today, December 20, 2015; James Fallows, “The daily Trump: filling a time capsule,” The Atlantic, September 8, 2016; Becket Adams, “A working timeline of Donald Trump’s campaign for the GOP nomination,” Washington Examiner, May 7, 2016; RealClearPolitics 2-way polling average, September 22, 2016


RealClearPolitics National Polling Average in a 2-way matchup with Clinton

9/10/2016

Trump embraces Clinton’s “deplorables” terminology. Trump’s poll numbers rise from 42.8% to 43.4% over two weeks.

9/16/2016

Trump admits Obama is a citizen. Trump’s numbers go from 43.9% to 44.2% over two week.

■ Donald Trump

10/3-4/2016

The New York Times breaks a story revealing Trump’s 1995 tax returns. The Vice Presidential Debate is held in which Pence outperforms Trump according to most pundits. Trump’s poll numbers go from 44.3% to 41.9% over two weeks.

9/26/2016

First Presidential Debate

10/7-19/2016

The New York Times, People Magazine and CNN run stories about multiple women who claim to have been sexually abused or assaulted by Trump. Trump’s poll numbers drop from 42.5% to 41.9%.

10/7/2016

The Washington Post uncovers a 2005 tape of Trump and Billy Bush making lewd remarks about a woman.

10/9/2016

Second Presidential Debate

Hillary Clinton’s favorability has declined since 2011

October 20, 2016 | Christine Yan, Libbie Wilcox, Owen Minott and Justin Brown

Source: HuffPost Pollster, “Poll Chart: Hillary Clinton Favorable Rating,” October 20, 2016.

Jan 2009 – October 2016 Hillary Clinton favorability ratings

HILLARY CLINTON FAVORABILITY RATINGS

■ Favorable ■ Undecided ■ Unfavorable

Analysis

• Hillary Clinton’s favorability has steadily declined over the past few years

• She has been more unfavored than favored since mid-2015

53.2%

43.3%

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

9/7/2016 9/14/2016 9/21/2016 9/28/2016 10/5/2016 10/12/2016 10/19/2016


As Trump’s campaign falters among accusations of sexual assault, Clinton’s poll numbers rise

Major moments in Clinton’s campaign from 9/7/2016 to 10/19/2016

Sources: Scott Detrow, “What’s in the latest WikiLeaks dump oc Clinton campaign emails,” NPR, October 12, 2016; Clare Foran, “The end of a political revolution,” The Atlantic, July 6, 2016; RealClearPolitics 2-way polling average, September 22, 2016; Liz Kreutz, “Hillary Clinton’s 10 memorable moments in a year long campaign,” ABC, April 12, 2016; RealClrearPolitics National Polling Average, September 24, 2016.


9/26/2015

In the first presidential debate Clinton is considered by many as the winner. Clinton also makes headlines by referencing Alicia Machado’s experience as Trump’s Miss Universe. Clinton’s poll numbers rise from 45.9% to 47.9% over two weeks.

9/10/2016

Clinton apologizes for “deplorables” comment.

■ Hillary Clinton

RealClearPolitics National Polling Average in a 2-way matchup with Trump

10/7-19/2016

Trump’s 2005 Access Hollywood video dominates headlines and is a leading topic in the second debate. After Trump says the video is just “locker room talk,” multiple women accuse Trump of sexual abuse or assault. WikiLeaks slowly releases thousands of emails from Clinton’s campaign staff. The emails offer a glimpse into the inner workings of the Clinton campaign. Over these 12 days Clinton’s poll numbers rise from 47.9% to 49.1%.

9/12/2016

Clinton takes a day off to recover from pneumonia. Clinton’s numbers fall then recover to around 46%.

Donald Trump’s favorability has decreased in recent months

October 20, 2016 | Christine Yan, Libbie Wilcox, and Justin Brown, and Katharine Conlon

Source: HuffPost Pollster, “Poll Chart: Donald Trump Favorable Rating,” October 20, 2016.

May 2015 – September 2016 Donald Trump favorability ratings

DONALD TRUMP FAVORABILITY RATINGS

■ Favorable ■ Undecided ■ Unfavorable

Analysis

Donald Trump has consistently been more unfavored than favored since May 2015

61.8%

34.3%

Clinton’s lead over Trump has narrowed in recent Colorado polls

October 19, 2016 | Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

Source: HuffPost Pollster, “Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton,” October 19, 2016.

June 2016 – Oct 2016 Colorado polling numbers, by candidate

GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS

■ Clinton ■ Trump ■ Undecided

Clinton leads Trump by 8 points in the most recent Colorado poll

Clinton starts to pull ahead in Nevada state polling

May 2016 – Oct 2016 Nevada polling numbers, by candidate



Clinton leads Trump by 7 points in the latest Nevada poll



Clinton pulls ahead of Trump in recent Florida state polling

Jan 2016 – Oct 2016 Florida polling numbers, by candidate



Clinton leads Trump by 4 points in the most recent Florida poll



Trump pulls ahead in Iowa state polling

June 2016 – Oct 2016 Iowa polling numbers, by candidate



Trump leads Clinton by 5 points in the most recent Iowa poll



Clinton holds onto her lead in Michigan state polling

May 2016 – Oct 2016 Michigan polling numbers, by candidate



Clinton leads Trump by 9 points in the latest Michigan poll



Clinton still leads in New Hampshire

May 2016 – Oct 2016 New Hampshire polling numbers, by candidate



Clinton leads Trump by 7 points in the latest New Hampshire poll



Clinton has a narrow lead over Trump in the most recent North Carolina polls

May 2016 – Oct 2016 North Carolina polling numbers, by candidate



Clinton leads Trump by 2 points in the latest North Carolina poll



Clinton and Trump are head to head in the most recent Ohio state polls

May 2016 – Oct 2016 Ohio polling numbers, by candidate



Clinton and Trump are tied in the latest Ohio poll



Clinton maintains lead over Trump in Pennsylvania state polling

June 2016 – Oct 2016 Pennsylvania polling numbers, by candidate



Clinton leads Trump by 6 points in the latest Pennsylvania poll



Clinton takes large lead in Virginia

May 2016 – Oct 2016 Virginia polling numbers, by candidate



Clinton leads Trump by 13 points in the latest Virginia poll


Source: HuffPost Pollster, “Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton,” October 13, 2016; Alexandra Jaffe and Ali Vitali, “Trump’s campaign is ‘pulling out of Virginia,’” NBC News, October 19, 2016.

Clinton’s lead widens in recent Wisconsin state polling

June 2016 – Oct 2016 Wisconsin polling numbers, by candidate



Clinton leads Trump by 8 points in the latest Wisconsin poll



Hillary favored over Trump in every G20 country other than Russia


Source: Will Dahlgreen, “Donald Trump Top Pick for US President... in Russia,” YouGov, April 18, 2016.

CANDIDATES’ APPROVAL ABROAD

International poll of US presidential candidates

Russia

Clinton’s lead over Trump

YouGov, April 2016

• The poll included candidates Sanders and Cruz, who have less name recognition abroad

• Just 2% of Mexicans supported Trump• The poll also found President Obama to

be tied with Pope Francis as the world’s most popular leader

*Representative of the online population

55

Candidate Representatives Senators Governors Total

Hillary Clinton 179 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

45 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

18 ••••••••••••••••••

242

Donald Trump 163 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

37 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

20 ••••••••••••••••••••

220

Rep. Richard Hanna is the first sitting Republican member of Congress to endorse Clinton

August 2, 2016 | Katharine Conlon

Number of endorsements from political leaders

PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT TRACKER

Source: Aaron Bycoffe, “The Endorsement Primary,” FiveThirtyEight, June 7, 2016; National Journal Research, 2016; Maxwell Tani, “A ‘World-Class Panderer’: GOP Congressman Becomes the First to Endorse Hillary Clinton Over Trump,” Business Insider, August 2, 2016.

56

Source: Reid Wilson, “Whip list: Whom the top 100 newspapers have endorsed,” The Hill, October 5, 2016.

The Chicago Tribune is the most high-profile media endorsement Johnson has received

NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENT TRACKER

October 5, 2016 | Madelaine Pisani

Name 2016 2012 2008

USA Today Not Trump Historically does not endorse candidates

The Wall Street Journal

The New York Times Clinton Obama Obama

Los Angeles Times Clinton Obama Obama

New York Post Romney McCain

The Mercury News Obama Obama

New York Daily News Clinton Romney Obama

The Chicago Tribune Johnson Obama Obama

Newsday Romney Obama

The Washington Post Clinton Obama Obama

Endorsements by the top 10 most widely circulated newspapers

57

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZ

NM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

AK

Rural voters from Vermont, South Carolina and West Virginia showed up at Democratic primaries in large numbers

VOTERS FROM RURAL AREAS

May 11, 2016 | Katharine Conlon

Source: CNN, 2016 Election Center, May 11, 2016.

■ 0-25% ■ 26% - 50% ■ 51% - 75% ■ 76% - 100% ■ No data

Percentage of people from rural areas voting in Democratic primaries

Based on entrance and exit polls for each state primary

NH

VT

No exit poll data available:AZ, RI, and DE PrimariesID Dem., UT Dem., AK Dem., HI Dem., WA Dem.

58

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZ

NM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

AK

Vermont, Mississippi and West Virginia had large numbers of GOP rural voters at the polls

VOTERS FROM RURAL AREAS

May 11, 2016 | Katharine Conlon

Source: CNN, 2016 Election Center, May 11, 2016.

■ 0-25% ■ 26% - 50% ■ 51% - 75% ■ 76% - 100% ■ No data

Percentage of people from rural areas voting in GOP primaries, by state

Based on entrance and exit polls for each state primary

NH

VT

No exit poll data available:AZ, RI, and DE Primaries, UT GOP, NE GOP

59

Chapter 3Campaign Finance and Super PACs

Source: Federal Election Commission, “2016 Reporting Dates.”

January 7, 2016 | Christine Yan

2016 FEC REPORTING DEADLINES

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30 31

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29 30 31

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

31

January

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30 31

1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

19 20 21 22 23 24 25

26 27 28 29 30

1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30 31

1 2 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11 12 13 14 15 16 17

18 19 20 21 22 23 24

25 26 27 28 29 30 31

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

31

1 2 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11 12 13 14 15 16 17

18 19 20 21 22 23 24

25 26 27 28 29 30

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30

Key FEC filing dates in 2016■ Monthly deadline ■ Quarterly deadline ■ Pre-General/Post-General deadlines* ■ Year-end deadline*

February March

April May June

July August September

October November December

Report Deadlines for Monthly Filers

Report Deadlines for Quarterly Filers

Jan. 31 (Year-End 2015) Jan. 31 (Year-End 2015)

Feb. 20 Apr. 15

Mar. 20 Jul. 15

Apr. 20 Oct. 15

May 20 Oct. 27 (Pre-General)

Jun. 20 Dec. 8 (Post-General)

Jul. 20

Aug. 20

Sep. 20

Oct. 20

Oct. 27 (Pre-General)

Dec. 8 (Post-General)

* applies to all filers

61

Sources: Federal Election Commission, “Campaign Guide for Nonconnected Committees,” May 2008; Federal Election Commission, “Campaign Guide for Corporations and Labor Organizations,” January 2007; Federal Election Commission, “Campaign Guide for Political Party Committees,” August 2013; Federal Election Commission, “2015 Reporting Dates”

December 7, 2015 | Christine Yan

FEC FILING FREQUENCIES

FEC filing frequencies by type of committee

Type of Committee Nonelection (odd-numbered) Year

(e.g. 2015)Federal Election (even-numbered) Year

(e.g. 2016)

House and Senate Campaign Committees

Quarterly Quarterly

Presidential Campaign Committees

Quarterly

Monthly* or Quarterly

(*Only if on January 1 of the election year, the committee has received/anticipates receiving contributions aggregating $100,000 or

more OR has made/anticipates making expenditures aggregating $100,000 or more)

National Party Committees

Monthly Monthly

State, District, and Local Party Committees

Monthly or Semi-annual*

(*Committees file semi-annual reports only if they file quarterly reports in election years)

Monthly or Quarterly*

(*Committees that do not engage in reportable federal election activity can opt to file quarterly reports)

Separate Segregated Funds (SSF) PAC

Semi-annual*

(*If SSF opts for monthly filing in election years, they must file only November & December monthly reports in a nonelection year)

Monthly or Quarterly

Nonconnected (Super) PAC

Monthly or Semi-annual*

(*Super PACs file semi-annual reports only if they file quarterly reports in election years)

Monthly or Quarterly

62

Advocacy groups have distinct benefits and limits

Advocacy Groups and Their Regulations

Contribution Limit

Must Disclose Donors?

Can Coordinate with Candidate?

Can be Primarily Political?

Can Expressly Tell Voters Who to Vote For?

Regulator

Traditional PACs $5,000

per year

FEC

Super PAC Unlimited

FEC

501(c)(4) Non-profit

Unlimited

IRS

527 Non-profit Unlimited

FEC

Source: Bloomberg Politics, July 31, 2015; OpenSecrets.com: Center for Responsible Politics.

April 12, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr.

DONORS

2016 ELECTION: FUNDRAISING AND OUTSIDE SPENDING

63

Clinton has more money left to spend than Trump


Source: Open Secrets/Center for Responsive Politics, 2016.


■ Campaign committee cash on hand (Democrats) ■ Campaign committee cash on hand (Republicans)■ Outside groups’ cash on hand (Democrats) ■ Outside groups’ cash on hand (Republicans)

Will Trump’s fundraising disadvantage hurt him in the last months of the campaign?

64

Presidential candidates’ money in the bank

Millions of dollars; as of September 21

Clinton has spent more money Trump



■ Money spent by campaign committee (Democrats) ■ Money spent by campaign committee (Republicans)■ Money spent by outside groups (Democrats) ■ Money spent by outside groups (Republicans)

65

Money spent by presidential candidates



Clinton has raised more money than Trump



■ Money raised by campaign committee (Democrats) ■ Money raised by campaign committee (Republicans) ■ Money raised by outside groups (Democrats) ■ Money raised by outside groups (Republicans)

66

Total money raised by presidential candidates



Trump raised $90M in August, reaching a record high for the campaign

September 9, 2016 | Libbie Wilcox

Source: Candace Smith, “Trump campaign announces $90M fundraising haul in August,” ABC News, September 8, 2016; Danielle Kurtzleben, “Trump continues to trail well behind Clinton in fundraising,” NPR, September 8, 2016.

Self-reported August fundraising levels

AUGUST CAMPAIGN FUNDRAISING

■ Clinton’s campaign ■ Trump’s campaign • Although Trump’s campaign reached a fundraising high this month, Clinton’s campaign raised $53 million more

• $70 million of Trump’s totals came from small donations and $2 million came from Trump himself

• The Clinton and Trump totals also include the money raised by their joint fundraising committees for the DNC and RNC

• Trump’s campaign made the case this week that it does not need to raise as much money as Clinton in order to win

• By comparison, in August 2012, Mitt Romney’s campaign raised $111 million

67

Super PACs support Clinton and Trump

June 22, 2016 | Christine Yan and Owen Minott Jr.

Presidential candidates and their associated organizations

Sources: Matea Gold and Cristina Rivero, “The 2016 Presidential Contenders and Their Big-money Backers,” Washington Post, August 11, 2015.

Notes:•Clinton’s PAC Priorities USA Action supported President Obama’s re-election bid in 2012

Clinton

Priorities USA

Action

Correct the

Record

Trump

Make America Great Again


68


Money bomb: Trump raises $18M day after debate

Presidential campaign fundraising disclosure reports

Sources: Karyn Bruggeman, “Trump airs debate grievances,” National Journal, September 28, 2016.

■ Trump ■ Clinton

Background•Trump’s campaign announced it raised $18 million the day after the debate, almost closing the $18.1 million fundraising gap between Trump and Clinton in August •The money came in part from a “National Call Day,” indicating that much of it came from large donations

FEC, August 2016


6September 30, 2016 | Libbie Wilcox

$18M raised after first debate

Chapter 4Clinton’s Campaign

Clinton’s VP: Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA)

Biography

Currently:Junior Senator of Virginia

Previously: Governor of Virginia

Education: University of Missouri, B.A. (1979)Harvard University, J.D. (1983)

Family: Anne Bright Holton (wife), three children

Election Results: 2012 Virginia Gubernatorial Race

Tim Kaine (D) 53%

George Allen (R) 47%

TIM KAINE PROFILE

July 25, 2016 | Madelaine Pisani

Previous Experience

• Lecturer, University of Richmond School of Law (1987-93, 2010-12)

• Practicing Attorney (1983-2000)• City Council, Richmond (1994-

2008)• Mayor, Richmond (1998-2001)• Lt. Governor, Virginia (2002-

2005)• Governor, Virginia (2006-2010)• Chairman, DNC (2009-2011)• Senator, Virginia (2012-present)

Biography

Senator Tim Kaine has represented Virginia in various public offices including Mayor of Richmond, and as both Governor and Senator of the state. He grew up a Roman Catholic in a suburb of Kansas City. His father ran an ironworking and welding shop where Kaine often worked. Kaine graduated from the University of Missouri in three years and went to Harvard Law school. He took a brief hiatus from studying law to spend nine months teaching in Honduras on a Jesuit missionary trip. Kaine moved to Richmond to be with his wife, Anne Holton, where he began working for a federal judge and as a civil rights lawyer. Kaine won his 2005 gubernatorial race on a quality of life platform that emphasized tax relief forhomeowners, a statewide pre-k initiative, and new transportation infrastructure. His opponent criticized Kaine for opposing the death penalty, calling him too liberal for Virginia. Kaine’s second year as governor, 2007, was marked by the passage of a $1 billion transportation bill he negotiated with a Republican-controlled legislature and the Virginia Tech mass shooting. When the shooting occurred, which killed 32 students, Kaine flew home from trade negotiations in Japan and was praised for his handling of the tragedy. In February 2007, Kaine endorsed Barack Obama for president. Kaine helped Obama win the Virginia primaries, one of the candidate’s most significant victories. After the election, Obama named Kaine chairman of the DNC. Kaine went on to beat George Allan (R-VA) in 2012 for a Virginia senate seat Allan had held from 2001-2007.

Sources: National Journal Research; Harry Enten, “Hillary Clinton Picks Tim Kaine, Betting She Can Beat Trump Without a Splashy VP,” FiveThirtyEight, July 22, 2016.

Kaine as VP

• Pro: Kaine speaks Spanish and can campaign easily on Hispanic media.

• Pro: He will likely have some electoral benefit in Virginia.

• Pro: He is a seasoned politician and is unlikely to make a gaffe or embarrass Clinton.

• Con: Kaine may not excite the base, partly because he is not well-known.

• Con: He “isn’t overwhelmingly adored by those familiar with him” according to Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight. His lack of popularity could add fuel to frustration from those farther left.

71

Clinton’s diverse management staff includes Latina, first gay presidential campaign manager

CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES


Sources: Twitter, 2016; Juliet Eilperin, “John Podesta: The Man Behind President Obama’s New Environmental Push,” Washington Post, March 4, 2014; Linkedin, 2016; Jonathan Bacon, “Hillary Clinton’s Chief Strategist Joel Benenson on Bringing Campaign Tactics to Brands,” Marketing Week, December 10, 2016; BallotPedia, 2016; G. Paul Burnett, The New Nork Times, Redux; Whitehouse.gov; Mark Wilson, Getty Images; “Hillary for America,” P2016.

Staff Member Role Previous Experience

John Podesta Campaign Chair• Senior Advisor, President Barack Obama• Founder, Center for American Progress• Chief of Staff, President Bill Clinton

Robby Mook Campaign Manager• Executive Director, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)• State Director, NV, IN, OH, 2008 Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign

Amanda Renteria Political Director• Chief of Staff, Sen. Debby Stabenow• Candidate for Representative, California’s 21st Congressional District

Joel BenensonChief Strategist and

Pollster• Founder and CEO, Benenson Strategy Group• Chief Pollster and Senior Strategist, Barack Obama Presidential Campaigns

Huma AbedinVice Campaign Chair &Personal Chief of Staff

• Deputy Chief of Staff, Department of State• Aide, Senator Hillary Clinton• Intern, First Lady Hillary Clinton

Staff leadership

72

Clinton’s policy advisors come from a range of backgrounds


Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016, DCCC, 2016; Center for American Progress, 2016, LinkedIn, 2016; “Hillary for America,” P2016; Twitter, 2016.

Policy staff


Jake Sullivan Senior Policy Advisor• Director of Policy Planning, Department of State• Deputy Policy Director, 2008 Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign• Senior Policy Advisor and Chief Counsel, Sen. Amy Klobuchar

Maya Harris Senior Policy Advisor• Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress• Vice President, Ford Foundation• Executive Director, ACLU North Carolina

Ann O’Leary Senior Policy Advisor• Co-founder, the Opportunity Institute• Vice President, Center for the Next Generation

Laura Rosenberger Foreign Policy Advisor• Chief of Staff, Deputy Secretary of State• National Security Council Staff

September 14, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr. 73

Clinton’s communications staff lead by campaign veterans


Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016; GMMB, 2016; LinkedIn, 2016; “Hillary for America,” P2016.

Communications staff


Jennifer PalmieriCommunications

Director

• Deputy Director of Communications, President Obama• Senior Vice President, Center for American Progress• Spokesperson/Advisor, John Edwards Campaign• Press Secretary and Spokesperson, Democratic National Committee• Deputy Press Secretary, President Bill Clinton

Jim Margolis Media Advisor• Media Consultant, 2008 and 2012 Obama Presidential Campaign• Partner, GMMB• Produced Ads for 1992 Bill Clinton Presidential Campaign

Brian Fallon Press Secretary• Director, Office of Public Affairs, Department of Justice• Spokesman for Attorney General Eric Holder


Clinton’s outreach staff is young and diverse


Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016, DCCC, 2016; Center for American Progress, 2016, LinkedIn, 2016. “Hillary for America,” P2016; Image of Lorella Praeli from Reuters.

Field and Outreach Staff (1)


Marlon MarshallDirector of State Campaigns and

Engagement

• National Field Director, 2012 Obama Presidential Campaign• National Field Director, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

(DCCC)

Lorella Praeli Latino Outreach Director • Director of Advocacy and Policy, We the Dream

LaDavia DraneAfrican American Outreach Director

• Director, Policy and Legislative Affairs, Mayor Muriel Bowser• Executive Director, Congressional Black Caucus• Legislative Director, Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH)

Dominic Lowell LGBT Outreach Director• Director of Strategic Partnerships, Rock the Vote• VP of investment Services, the Democracy Alliance


Clinton’s outreach staff is young and diverse


Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016, DCCC, 2016; Center for American Progress, 2016, LinkedIn, 2016; Chrissie Thompson, “Cincinnati's Chris Wyant to Run Hillary Clinton's Ohio Campaign,” Cincinnati.com, May 3, 2016; Patricia Mazzei, “Meet Hillary Clinton’s Florida Campaign Staff,” the Miami Herald, June 3, 2016; “Hillary for America,” P2016; Laura Schiller image by Katie Stoops, from Wamu 88.5.

Field and Outreach Staff (2)


Laura SchillerDirector of

Congressional Affairs• Chief of Staff, Sen. Barbara Boxer• Speechwriter, First Lady Hillary Clinton

Michelle Kwan Outreach Coordinator • Champion Figure Skater

Simone Ward Florida State Director • National Political Director, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC)

Chris Wyant Ohio State Director • Ohio State Director, 2012 Obama Presidential Campaign


Clinton’s pollsters helped Obama win in ‘08 and ‘12


Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016; GMMB, 2016; LinkedIn, 2016; “Hillary for America,” P2016.

Pollsters


John Anzalone Pollster• Founder, Anzalone Liszt Grove Research (ALG)• Pollster, 2008 & 2012 Obama Presidential Campaign

David Binder Pollster• Founder, David Binder Research• Pollster, 2008 & 2012 Obama Presidential Campaign


Clinton picks Salazar as chair of transition


Setember 14, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr.

Sources: John Wagner, “Clinton’s Campaign Team Grows as the Democrat Eyes the White House,” The Washington Post, August 16, 2016; Kimberly Hefling and Michael Stratford, “Clinton Names Warren Ally to Transition Team,” Politico, August 30, 2016.

Staff Member Transition Team Role Previous Experience

John PodestaPresident

(also Campaign Chairman)

• Senior Advisor, President Barack Obama• Founder, Center for American Progress• Chief of Staff, President Bill Clinton

Ken Salazar Chair • Secretary of the Interior• Senator from Colorado

Tom Donilon Co-Chair • National Security Advisor, President Obama

Jennifer Granholm Co-Chair • Governor of Michigan

Neera Tanden Co-Chair • President, Center fro American Progress

Maggie Williams Co-Chair• Director, Institute of Politics at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at

Harvard University

Rohit Chopra (Not yet announced) • Student Loan Ombudsman, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Clinton-Kaine Transition Project leadership

78

CLINTON ENDORSEMENTS

Clinton receives support from the President, VP, and Elizabeth Warren

Top Clinton endorsements from Thursday, June 9th

June 10, 2016 | Katharine Conlon

Sources: Edward-Isaac Dovere, “Joe Biden Endorses Hillary Clinton,” Politico, June 9, 2016; Eric Bradner, “President Barack Obama Endorses Hillary Clinton in Video,” CNN, June 9, 2016; Carrie Dann, “Elizabeth Warren Endorses Hillary Clinton on Rachel Maddow Show,” NBC, June 9, 2016.

I'm ready. I am ready to get in this

fight and work my heart out for Hillary

Clinton to become the next president of

the United States — and to make sure that

Donald Trump never gets anyplace close to

the White House"

– Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

“ Anybody who thinks that whoever

the next president is -- and God willing, in

my view, it will be Secretary Clinton”

– Vice President Joe Biden

“I want those of you who have

been with me since the beginning of this

incredible journey to be the first to know

that I'm with her. I am fired up. And I can't

wait to get out there and campaign with

Hillary."

– President Barack Obama

“

ENDORSEMENT ENDORSEMENT ENDORSEMENT

79

Clinton receives endorsement from Republican business leaders

CLINTON ENDORSEMENTS

June 24, 2016 | Katharine Conlon

Sources: Tamara Keith, “Republican Executives Are Among Business Leaders Endorsing Clinton,” NPR, June 23, 2016.

Name PositionPolitical Contributions to GOP

Candidates

Jeff BrotmanCo-Founder and Chairman of

Costco Wholesale Corp.$2,700

Jim CicconiSenior Executive Vice President at

AT&T Services Inc.$12,700

Barry DillerChairman and Senior Executive of

IAC and Expedia$2,700

Reed Hastings Founder and CEO of Netflix $2,700

James J. MurranChairman and CEO of MGM

Resorts International$2,300

Previous political contributions to GOP candidates from select business leaders who now endorse Clinton

80

Paul Watford, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit Judge • Also considered as a replacement for Scalia, Watford was praised by judges on both sides of the aisle when Obama nominated him to the 9th circuit in 2011•SCOTUS has ruled in favor of all of Watford’s opinions that have come before them, including a critical criminal-justice decision regarding warrants and hotel guest records

Liberals continue to push for a more left-leaning nominee

Preferred liberal picks for the Supreme Court

Sam Baker, “Liberals’ ideal Supreme Court pick,” National Journal, September 6, 2016.

SCOTUS STRATEGIES

Goodwin Liu, Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of California • Former Professor of Law at U.C. Berkeley, Liu’s

nomination by Obama to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals was blocked in 2011 by Republicans due to his widely known liberal leanings

• Liu would be the first Asian-American to serve on the court

Robert Wilkins, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit Judge •In 1993, Wilkins sued Maryland in one of the first successful “Driving While Black” racial profiling lawsuits in Wilkins v. Maryland State Police •Wilkins is a highly respected judge who has received many accolades for his legal and judicial practice

Jane Kelly, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit Judge •Considered by Obama as a possible Scalia replacement, Kelly was criticized by conservatives for her work as a public defender representing certain unappealing clients •Kelly was confirmed in a 96-0 vote by the Senate in 2013

Nina Pillard, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit Judge •Pillar, a former Georgetown law professor, now sits on the second highest court in the nation•Pillar was part of the legal team that successfully argued to eliminate Virginia Military Institute’s discriminatory policies against woman in 1996

September 7, 2016 | Justin C. Brown and Libbie Wilcox 81

Chapter 5Trump’s Campaign

Trump’s VP: Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN)

Biography

Currently:Governor of Indiana

Previously: Representative of Indiana’s Sixth Congressional District

Education: Hanover College (1981)Indiana University, J.D. (1985)

Family: Karen (wife), three adult children

Election Results: 2012 Indiana Gubernatorial Race

Mike Pence (R) 49%

John Gregg (D) 47%

Rupert Boneham (Libertarian) 4%

MIKE PENCE PROFILEPRESENTATION CENTER

July 19, 2016 | Madelaine Pisani

Previous Experience

• Counselor, Hanover College Admissions (1981-1983)

• President, Indiana Policy Review Foundation, conservative think-tank (1991-1994)

• Host, The Mike Pence Show (1994-1999)

• Representative, Indiana’s Sixth Congressional District (2000-2010)

Biography

Governor Mike Pence is a lifelong Hoosier elected as the 50th Governor of Indiana in 2012. Pence grew up as a John F. Kennedy-admiring Catholic, but graduated from Hanover College in 1981 as a Republican and an Evangelical Christian. He earned a J.D. from Indiana University School of Law in 1986. Following two years of practicing law, Pence ran for Congress twice, unsuccessfully, against incumbent Philip Sharp. He also began broadcasting a conservative talk-radio program called The Mike Pence Show in 1994, which became syndicated statewide. In 2000, Pence ran for Congress again on a platform of across-the-board tax cuts and reform of Medicare financing. Pence was elected to represent Indiana’s Sixth Congressional District and served six terms through 2010. During that time he served as House Republican Conference Chairman and Chairman of the House Republican Study Committee. In 2011 Pence ran for Governor amid speculation that he was eyeing a run for president. He ran again on a platform of cutting state individual and corporate income taxes and eliminating the estate tax. His opponent criticized him as an “elite attack dog” of the far right and pointed to his long-standing opposition to Planned Parenthood. Though Pence had a massive financial advantage, he chose not to run negative ads in response. Pence did cut taxes as Governor and won approval for his Healthy Indiana Plan 2.0 in response to the Affordable Care act. He continues to fuel presidential rumors with a recent trip to Israel and a close relationship to the Koch Brothers.

Sources: www.in.gov; National Journal Research; Joseph Weber, Christopher Snyder “Gov or VP? Indiana’s Pence Has Friday Ballot Deadline” Foxnews.com, July 11, 2016; “Mike Pence Election Results: GOP Wins Indiana Governor’s Race”, Huffingtonpost.com, November 6, 2012; Carl Cannon, Caitlin Huey-Burns, “Does Pence Help Trump?” Real Clear Politics, July 14, 2016.

Pence as VP

• Pro: Pence bring strong support from the Republican establishment.

• Pro: Trump must carry Indiana to win the general election.

• Pro: Pence appeals to moderates on immigration issues.

• Con: Pence does not agree with Trump on his controversial call to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. and called it “offensive and unconstitutional.”

• Con: Pence endorsed Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) during the primaries.

83

Trump hired the president of Citizen’s United


September 2, 2016 | Katharine Conlon and Owen Minott Jr.

Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016; LinkedIn, 2016; Jabine Botsford, “Who is Corey Lewandowski? His Rise – and His Relationship With Donald Trump,” The Keene Sentinel, April 3, 2016; CNN, 2015; Kevin Cirilli, “Who’s Who in Trump World,” The Hill, August 14, 2015; Valentina Zarya, “Donald Trump’s Campaign Staff is 75% Men,” Fortune, June 1, 2016; Maggie Haberman, “Donald Trump Fires Corey Lewandowski, His Campaign Manager,” New York Times, June 20, 2016; National Journal Research, 2016; Robert Costa, “Trump Enlists Veteran Operative David Bossie as Deputy Campaign Manager,” The Washington Post, September 1, 2016.


Stephen Bannon Chief Executive • Head of Breitbart News

Kellyanne Conway Campaign Manager • Founder and President, The Polling Company

David BossieDeputy Campaign

Manager• President, Citizens United• Executive, Defeat Crooked Hillary super PAC

Michael GlassnerDeputy Campaign

Manager

• Advisor, Vice Presidential Candidate Sarah Palin• Iowa Strategist, 2000 George Bush Presidential Campaign• Senior Advisor, 1996 Bob Dole Presidential Campaign

Ed BrookoverSenior Advisor, Delegate

Selection

• Chair of Political Practice, Greener and Hook• Consultant, National Republican Congressional Committee• National Field Director, Republican National Committee

Barry Bennett Strategist• Founder, Rob Portman Super PAC• Founder, Liz Cheney Super PAC• Senior Advisor, Make Us Great Again PAC (Rick Perry Super PAC)

Management and strategy staff

84

Hope Hicks leads Trump’s communications team


August 17, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr.

Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016; LinkedIn, 2016; National Journal Research, 2016.


Hope Hicks Communications Director• Public Relations for Ivanka Trump, Trump Organization• Account Manager, Hiltzik Strategies

Jason MillerSenior Communications

Advisor• Senior Communications Advisor, Ted Cruz 2016 Presidential Campaign

Katrina Pierson Spokesperson• Tea Party Activist• Tea Party Candidate for House of Representatives, Texas District 32

Daniel Scavino Jr. Director of Social Media• Director of Development, Joe Torre Safe at Home Foundation• Assistant Clubhouse Manager, Trump National Golf Course• Regional Manager, Coca Cola

Justin McConney Director of New Media • Head of New Media, Trump Organization

Michael AbboudCommunications

Coordinator• RNC Communications Aide

Communications staff

85

Roger Ailes to advise Trump following departure from Fox, sexual harassment charges



Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016; LinkedIn, 2016.


Roger Ailes Advisor • Chairman, Fox News

Ken McKay Senior Advisor• Formally Chris Christie’s campaign manager• Previously worked on campaigns for Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Gov. Rick

Scott (R-FL)

John Mashburn Policy Director• Counsel or aide with Jesse Helms (R-NC), Trent Lott (R-MS), Rom Delay (R-TX)• Previously lawyer for Womble Carlyle Sandridge and Rice

Roger Stone Political Consultant• Organizer, ‘Brooks Brothers riot’ protest against 2000 Florida recount Founding

Partner, Black, Manafort and Stone• Director of Youth Outreach, Regan Presidential Campaign 1976

Sam ClovisCo-Chair and Policy

Advisor

• Host of Radio Show, ‘Impact With Sam Clovis”• Professor of Economics, Morningside College• Inspector General, US Space Command

Sarah Huckabee Sanders Senior Advisor• Vice President, Tsamoutales Strategies• Campaign Manager, 2016 Mike Huckabee Presidential Campaign

Brian JackNational Delegate

Management Director

• Previously ballot access and delegate selection for Ben Carson• Worked on American Israel Public Affairs Committee• Staff assistant at the Republican National Committee

Advisors

NEW

86

Gov. Christie leads Trump presidential transition team



Sources: Josh Rogin, “Top Corker Aid Joins Trump Transition Team,” The Washington Post, August 3, 2016; Zeke Miller, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Campaigns Invited to White House Transition Meetings,” Time, July 29, 2016; Rebecca Savransky, “Rogers to Play Senior Role on Trump Transition Teams: Report,” The Hill.

Staff Member Transition Team Role Previous Experience

Chris Christie Chairman • Governor of New Jersey

Bill Palatucci General Counsel• Attorney• RNC Member

Rich Bagger Senior Member • Chief of Staff, Governor Chris Christie

William Hagerty Director of Appointments• Director of Appointment, Mitt Romney 2012 Presidential Campaign

Mike RogersNational Security Advisor

(role not finalized)• House Intelligence Committee Chairman

Trump presidential transition team

87

Republicans are supporting Trump as much as they supported Romney and McCain

June 16, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr.

Harry Enten, “GOP Voters Are Rallying Behind Trump As If He Were Any Other Candidate,” FiveThirtyEight, June 1, 2016.

SUPPORT FOR GOP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEES

■ GOP Support for Republican Nominee ■ GOP Support for Democratic Nominee

GOP voter support for nominee one month after nomination secured

1980-2016

• Even though Trump has abandoned party orthodoxy on a range of issues, Republican voters have rallied around Trump since he clinched the nomination

• Consolidating the GOP vote will give Trump a floor of support and make it difficult for Clinton to win the general election in a blowout

• Clinton has yet to unify the Democratic party, but her supporters expect a bump in support after the Democratic National Convention

TrumpRomneyMcCainBushDoleBushReagan

88

SCOTUS STRATEGIES

Donald Trump’s list of potential nominees meets expectations, largely white and conservative

Donald Trump’s Supreme Court shortlist

None of Donald Trump’s possible nominees are

people of color.

Sources: Donald J. Trump, “Donald J. Trump releases list of potential United States Supreme Court justices,” Trump Campaign, May 18, 2016; Matt Flegenheimer, “Donald Trump’s docket: a look at his Supreme Court wish list,” NY Times, May 18, 2016.

Steven M. Colloton (IA)8th Circuit of US Court of Appeals

Allison H. Eid (CO)Colorado Supreme Court

Raymond W. Gruender (MO)8th Circuit of US Court of Appeals

Thomas M. Hardiman (PA)3rd Circuit of US Court of Appeals

Raymond M. Kethledge (MI)6th Circuit of US Court of Appeals

Joan L. Larsen (MI)Michigan Supreme Court

Thomas R. Lee (UT)Utah Supreme Court

William H. Pryor Jr. (AL)11th Circuit of US Court of Appeals

David R. Stras (MN)Minnesota Supreme Court

Dian S. Sykes (WI)7th Circuit of US Court Appeals

Don R. Willett (TX)Texas Supreme Court


Chapter 6Issues and Events Impacting the Election

Supreme Court cases and presidential actions helped define the major issues for 2016 presidential election

EVENTS AFFECTING 2016 ELECTIONS

February 19, 2016 | Ben Booker

Source: InfoPlease, February 2016; BBC, “Russia Joins War in Syria: Five Points,” October 1, 2015; Allie Maloy, “Obama Unveils Major Climate Change Proposal,” CNN, August 3, 2015.

(King v. Burwell) DecisionThe Supreme Court ruled to uphold federal subsidies for all eligible Americans under the Affordable Care Act. This effectively upheld the ACA’s constitutionality making its repeal a major rallying cry for Republican presidential candidates. For Democratic candidates, especially Hillary Clinton, preserving and championing the ACA took on added significance.

(Obergefell v. Hodges) Decision

The Supreme Court ruled the 14th amendment required all states to grant and honor same-sex marriage licenses. The decision brought the issue to the fore within the Republican primary causing social issues to become a major criteria when vetting candidates.

Congress Approved and Obama Signed Trade Promotion Authority for Trans-Pacific PartnershipCongress granted Obama authority to negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without Congressional amendment. Democratic candidates denounced TPP as undermining U.S. labor with Republicans split over the issue. Establishment candidates largely favored the deal while outsider candidates like Trump and Cruz considered it bad for the economy.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was Announced

The JCPOA or the “Iran Deal”, was announced and Republicans quickly lambasted it. For Republicans, it provided a contrast on how they would be a stronger commander-in-chief than Democrats. For Democrats, the deal was seen as evidence of their prudence and measured leadership contrasted with the Republican’s hot-headedness.

Obama Announced Finalized Clean Power PlanPresident Obama announced the Clean Power Plan, which empowered the EPA to regulate carbon emissions. Democrat candidates largely supported the measure seeing it as a critical step to combating climate change. Republican candidates viewed the plan as imposing burdensome regulations upon states, which would aversely impact the economy.

June 2015

June 2015

July 2015

June2015

Aug2015

Timeline of events affecting the 2016 election

91

National security became one of the top issues towards the end of 2015 due to Syria and terrorism



Source: InfoPlease, February 2016; BBC “Russia Joins War in Syria: Five Points,” October 1, 2015; Allie Maloy, “Obama Unveils Major Climate Change Proposal,” CNN, August 3, 2015.

Russia Entered Syria and Began Air Campaign to Support Syrian Dictator Bashar al-AssadRussian airplanes and ground troops entered Syria to support Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. Further questions about U.S. Middle Eastern strategy were discussed in the presidential debate, especially on the Republican side. Republicans used Russian presence as an example of continued U.S. weakness under Obama.

Obama Announced U.S. Ground Troops in Syria

A rift began to appear between Democratic candidates on national security with Hillary Clinton largely supportive of Obama’s Syria strategy while Bernie Sanders wanted all U.S. troop withdrawn from Syria. A similar rift emerged in the Republican campaign with most Republicans calling for a more “muscular” strategy with an increased troop presence, while others called for the U.S. to embrace a less “interventionist” foreign policy in the Middle East.

Paris Terrorist AttackISIL operatives killed 130 people and caused widespread panic across France. National security became a top concern amongst voters, especially Republicans. Republican candidates called into question the vetting process for Syrians and Iraqis entering the U.S. causing a major discussion about whether the U.S. should be letting in Syrians or Iraqis at all. Democrats tried to differentiate themselves as the more welcoming party and painted Republicans as fear-mongering.

San Bernardino Terrorist Attack

Two gunmen, who were a couple, attacked a social services clinic killing 14 and injuring 22 people. One of the perpetrators, Tashfeen Malik, was a Pakistani immigrant and a permanent legal resident. Her immigrant status made fears over Middle Eastern immigrants more acutely felt and made terrorism the dominant topic in the national conversation.

Sep 2015

Oct2015

Nov 2015

Dec2015

Timeline of Events Affecting the 2016 Election

92

Justice Antonin Scalia’s unexpected death has put added significance on the 2016 presidential election



Source: InfoPlease, February 2016; BBC, “Russia Joins War in Syria: Five Points,” October 1, 2015; Allie Maloy, “Obama Unveils Major Climate Change Proposal,” CNN, August 3, 2015.

U.S. and Iran Prisoner ExchangeU.S. and Iran exchanged prisoners resulting in five U.S. prisoners being released. Four returned to the U.S. and one remained in Tehran. Democratic candidates pointed to the exchanges as proving that diplomacy could produce results without the need for military intimidation. Republican candidates pushed back against this sentiment pointing to an incident where Iran held U.S. sailors hostage, albeit temporarily.

Some of Hillary Clinton’s Emails Were Marked As Classified

Some of Hillary Clinton’s emails from her time as Secretary of State were retroactively labeled as containing classified information. Republican candidates pointed to this as showing how reckless Clinton was and how she cannot be trusted to handle sensitive information. The Democratic candidates continued to consider the email a smear campaign with Clinton arguing major Republican officials like Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice used a similar private email server while handling retroactively classified material.

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia DiedOn February 13th, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died. A discussion began on whether Obama should appoint a new Supreme Court justice or whether it should wait until the next president. Consequently, the presidential election took on added significance as the winner was seen as the one who would appoint Scalia’s successor and determine if the court would have a liberal or conservative majority.

Jan 2016

Feb2016

Feb 2016

Timeline of events affecting the 2016 election

93

February 18, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr.

Source: Gallup, 2015; Justin Worland, “Most Americans Say the Rich Aren’t Taxed Enough,” Time, February 22, 2015; Rebecca Shabad, “Poll: Majority Opposes Accepting Syrian Refugees into US,” CBS News, December 23, 2015; David Knowles and Ben Brody, “Bloomberg Politics Poll: Majority of Americans Say Obamacare Should Get Time to Work,” Bloomberg Politics, April 17, 2015; Bryan Beutler, “Obamacare Is More Popular Than It Seems—If You Discount These People's Opinions,” The New Republic, April 20, 2015.

PUBLIC OPINION ON THE ISSUES

Public opinion on the issues as election approaches

Gay Marriage

Obamacare

Cannabis Gun laws

Syrian refugees Taxes

94


Clinton campaign staff has greater female representation than Trump campaign

Clinton’s Staff

June 7, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr.

Sources: Matt Viser, “Donald Trump’s Campaign Pays Women Less Than Men,” The Boston Globe, June 4, 2016.


Trump’s Staff

• 2/15 of the highest paid employees are women

• 7/15 of the highest paid employees are women

95

Next president could be responsible for as many as four Supreme Court nominations

SCOTUS appointment timeline and Clinton’s strategy

Following Antonin Scalia’s death, a still empty seat needs to be filled

• Merrick Garland is the name currently on the table for confirmation by the Senate, however Republicans have made it clear that they do not plan on confirming Garland before the election.

• Should Hillary Clinton win the election, there has been growing pressure for her to nominate a more liberal-leaning judge. Clinton has not written off the possibility of re-nominating Garland, but doing so would likely anger progressives and “Bernie” Democrats that are becoming essential to a Clinton election win.

Sources: Lydia Wheeler, “Clinton’s court shortlist emerges,” The Hill, July 30, 2016; Ben Geman and Sam Baker, “How Hillary Clinton would handle the Supreme Court,” National Journal Daily, July 28, 2016.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg, at 83, is most likely to retire next

• While Democrats have no “official” strategy for filling the seat of liberal-leaning Justice Ginsburg, many believe that Clinton would be committed to finding a female replacement.

• Several names including Patricia Millet (DC Circuit Court) and Jane Kelly (8th Circuit) have been floated as possible female, left-leaning judges that would be suitable for the Supreme Court.

Breyer and/or Kennedy could retire before the 2020 election

• While neither has indicated an intent to retire, Justice Breyer and Justice Kennedy will both be in their 80s by the 2020 election.

• Should either of the men vacate their seat unexpectedly, many believe Clinton would consult President Obama’s previous shortlist including standouts such as Paul Watford (9th Circuit) or Sri Srinivasan (DC Circuit Court).

SCOTUS STRATEGIES


What will happen to Merrick Garland?

President Obama’s Supreme Court nomination possible outcomes

Confirm before end of year?

•Many Senate Republicans were surprised that President Obama nominated a more moderate judge who has some conservative appeal.

•Hillary Clinton would have to win the election for Senate Republicans to consider confirming Garland before the end of the year. Many speculate that Clinton would instead nominate a more liberal judge in Garland’s place, leading some senators to believe that they should confirm Garland while he’s available.

September 7, 2016 | Justin C. Brown and Libbie Wilcox

Sources:

Merrick GarlandSupreme Court Appointee

No confirmation for Garland?

• Hillary Clinton has not ruled out the possibility of re-nominating Garland if she wins; however, there is growing pressure from progressives for a more left-leaning nominee. Senate Republicans may face a much more contentious confirmation battle should they pass on Garland in the case of a Clinton election win.

• If Donald Trump were to win the presidency, the Senate would almost certainly let Garland’s nomination expire as Trump would likely nominate a right-leaning judge.

Background

• A month after the death of Antonin Scalia on February 13th, President Obama nominated Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court.

• Senate Republicans have refused to meet with Garland on the principle that Obama should not be allowed a high court choice in his final year.

SCOTUS STRATEGIES

Sources: Lydia Wheeler, “Clinton’s court shortlist emerges,” The Hill, July 30, 2016; Ben Geman and Sam Baker, “How Hillary Clinton would handle the Supreme Court,” National Journal Daily, July 28, 2016.

97

Chapter 7Trump and Clinton on the Issues

Clinton supports gun control to prevent gun violence; Trump wants to protect the Second Amendment

March 31, 2016 | Christine Yan

Sources: Donald J. Trump, “Protecting our Second Amendment Rights Will Make America Great Again,” DonaldJTrump.com; Hillary Clinton, “Gun violence prevention,” HillaryClinton.com.

Comparison of Clinton’s and Trump’s gun violence plans

CLINTON VS. TRUMP ON GUN CONTROL

Hillary Clinton’s Proposals Donald Trump’s Proposals

Background Checks

Comprehensive background checks; Close Charleston loophole that allows gun sales to proceed if background check not completed within 3 days

Fix, but do not expand, background check system –states should put criminal and mental health records into the system

Mental Health Close loopholes that allow people with severe mental illnesses to purchase and possess guns

Expand mental health treatment programs

Federal Crimes Make straw-purchasing a federal crime Bring back Project Exile – Felons committing violent crimes involving firearms are prosecuted federally and go to prison for 5 years with no parole or early release

Gun bans Prohibit the sale of assault weapons No bans on any kind of guns

Miscellaneous • Increase funding for inspections of gun dealers; revoke licenses of dealers who knowingly break the rules

• Repeal gun industry’s immunity protection –“Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act”

• End unregulated internet gun sales and gun show loophole

• Prohibit all domestic abusers, including those in dating relationships, from possessing weapons

• Protect 2nd amendment• Concealed carry permit should be valid across state

lines• Allow military personnel to carry firearms on bases

and at recruiting centers

99

Clinton and Trump have no common ground in gun control platforms

March 31, 2016 | Christine Yan and Owen Minott

Source: John Wagner, “Bernie Sanders says he is pulling together a plan to address gun violence,” Washington Post, October 5, 2015; HillaryClinton.com; Jessica Taylor, “Bernie Sanders Walks a Fine Line on Gun Control,” NPR, June 24, 2015; Dan Merica, “Where is Bernie Sanders’ Gun Control Plan?” CNN, February 18, 2016.

Comparison of Clinton and Trump’s gun control proposals

Proposal Clinton Trump

Comprehensive background checks X

Close Charleston loophole allowing gun sales to proceed if background check not completed within 3 days

X

Repeal gun industry’s immunity protection –“Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act”

X

Increase funding for inspections of gun dealers; revoke licenses of dealers who knowingly break the rules

X

Make straw-purchasing a federal crime X

End unregulated internet gun sales and gun show loophole

X

Prohibit all domestic abusers, including those in dating relationships, from possessing weapons

X

Prohibit the sale of assault weapons X

CLINTON VS. TRUMP ON GUN CONTROL

100

Presidential candidates’ health care stances generally adhere to respective party lines

PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS ON HEALTHCARE

June 30, 2016 | Emilia Varrone

Sources: The Briefing, "Hillary Clinton's Plan for Lowering Out-of-Pocket Health Care Costs", HillaryClinton.com, September 23, 2015; Dylan Scott, "Explaining Hillary Clinton's Trip to the Health Policy Twilight Zone," National Journal, April 21, 2015; "Healthcare Reform to Make America Great Again," DonaldJTrump.com, May 19, 2016; "Affordable Health Care is a Basic Human Right", HillaryClinton.com, May 19, 2016; "Bernie Sanders on Healthcare," FeeltheBern.org, May 19, 2016; Rachel Witkin, "Where 2016 Candidates Stand on Mental Health Issues" NBC News, February 24, 2016; Julie Edgar, “Health Care Reform: Health Insurance & Affordable Care Act,” WebMD, May 20, 2016; "Annotated Transcript: The Aug. 6 GOP Debate", Washington Post, August 6, 2015.

Affordable Care Act Single-Payer Medicare Medicaid Abortion

Keep Expand Expand Supports

Replace Keep Keep Ban

Overview of candidates’ stances on major health care legislation

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

101

Presidential candidates’ stances on health policy span political spectrum

PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS ON HEALTHCARE

June 30, 2016 | Emilia Varrone

Sources: The Briefing, "Hillary Clinton's Plan for Lowering Out-of-Pocket Health Care Costs", HillaryClinton.com, September 23, 2015; Dylan Scott, "Explaining Hillary Clinton's Trip to the Health Policy Twilight Zone," National Journal, April 21, 2015; "Healthcare Reform to Make America Great Again," DonaldJTrump.com, May 19, 2016; "Affordable Health Care is a Basic Human Right", HillaryClinton.com, May 19, 2016; "Bernie Sanders on Healthcare," FeeltheBern.org, May 19, 2016; Rachel Witkin, "Where 2016 Candidates Stand on Mental Health Issues" NBC News, February 24, 2016; Alan Rappeport and Margot Sanger-Katz, "Hillary Clinton Takes a Step to the Left on Health Care," New York Times, May 10, 2016.

Health Care Program Clinton Trump

Affordable Care Act (ACA) Preserve & Build Repeal & Replace

Prescription Drug Prices Control drug prices & hold drug companies accountable.

Lower barriers to trade to allow drug makers from overseas to sell in the U.S.

Medicaid Expansion Support new incentives to encourage states to expand ?

Unclear, Trump proposes state block-grants for Medicaid

Medicare Buy-In Supports people 50+ to be able to purchase Medicare coverage ?

Unknown, Trump promised to improve Medicare by making “the country rich”

Public Option Supports public option, suggests state initiatives under ACA Does not support

Mental Health Parity Wants mental health parity with physical health issues Supports current reform plan in Congress

Provider Price Transparency Would expand disclosure requirements Require transparency from doctors and hospitals

Sale of Health Insurance Across State Lines ?

Early 2015 Clinton expressed an open mind, not currently in her platform

Allow health insurance to be sold across state lines

Details on 2016 presidential candidates’ platforms on health care

102

Short on details: presidential candidates’ stances on mental health

PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS ON MENTAL HEALTH

August 16, 2016 | Emilia Varrone

Sources: HillaryClinton.com, August, 2016; DonaldJTrump.com, August, 2016; Dylan Scott, “Donald Trump’s Plan for Heroin Addiction: Build a Wall — and Offer some Treatment,” STAT, August 1, 2016..

Health Care Program Clinton Trump

Mental Health Parity Wants mental health parity with physical health issues Supports current reform plan in Congress

Substance Abuse Sees addiction as an illness, and focuses on prevention, treatment and recovery.

No policy position. Stated that the planned border wall will reduce drug entry into the US

Veteran’s Mental Health Expand mental health services for veterans and their families to reduce veteran suicides

Increase funding for PTSD, traumatic brain injury and suicide prevention services

Developmental Disabilities, Autism

Improve screening, awareness and research; require health insurance coverage for services; introduce an Autism Works Initiative

No policy position on improving services for those with developmental disabilities or autism

Community Health centers Invest in community health centers to improve primary and preventative care

No policy position on community health centers

Details on 2016 presidential candidates’ platforms on mental health

103

Both Clinton and Trump support RFS and GMO’s, but differ on most other agriculture issues

PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS ON AGRICULTURE

August 5, 2016 | Claire Carter

Sources: National Journal Research; DonaldJTrump.com; HillaryClinton.com; Helena Bottemiller Evich, “Trump Woos the Heartland,” Politico, May 27, 2016; Deena Shanker, “A Donald Trump Presidency Could Lead to Food Shortages in the U.S.,” Quartz, March 30, 2016; Ballotpedia, 2016.

Agricultural Subsidies

Invest in Rural America

Support the Renewable Fuel

Standard

Support Biotechnology and

GMO’s

Immigration and Farmworker Labor

Promote Clean Energy

Supports farm subsidies with a focus on helping

smaller family farms

Clinton has proposed

simplifying regulations on

community banks and expanding

access to capital for rural

businesses

Some reforms of RFS are necessary,

but supports overall

strengthening of RFS and access to

E15, E85, and biodiesel blends

Did not support preemption of labeling laws,

supports use of biotechnologies

Clinton has been endorsed by the

United Farm Workers

Clinton’s plan for rural America

highlights clean energy and fully

fund the Environmental

Quality Incentives Program

Does not support the wide use of farm subsidies,

but has indicated support for

ethanol/corn subsidies

?

Trump supports the Renewable Fuel Standard matching the

blend levels set by Congress

Trump has expressed his support for

biotechnology in food products

Trump’s promise to build a wall and halt immigration could affect food

supply by eliminating necessary

farmworker labor

Trump has said that fossil fuels

are great and the U.S. should be

burning more of them

Overview of candidates’ stances on agriculture

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

104

Trump supports investing in fossil fuels, while Clinton wants greater environmental regulation and clean energy

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT

August 24, 2016 | Ben Booker

Sources: National Journal Research; DonaldJTrump.com; HillaryClinton.com; Ballotpedia, 2016.

Support Hydraulic Fracking

Approve the Keystone XL

Pipeline

Support the Renewable Fuel

Standard

Implement the Clean Power Plan

Implement the Paris Climate Agreement

Promote and Invest in Clean

Energy

Supports fracking, but in a limited

fashion and would like to see it more

regulated

Clinton believes building the Keystone XL

Pipeline would be a setback in

fighting climate change

Some reforms of RFS are necessary,

but supports overall

strengthening of RFS and access to

E15, E85, and biodiesel blends

Supports the CPP and would fend off Republican

efforts to weaken regulations

Supports the Agreement and is

committed to reducing U.S.

carbon emissions

Clinton wants the U.S. to produce

enough renewable energy to cover half of its energy needs by 2030

Trump strongly supports oil and

gas exploration to increase U.S.

energy supplies

Trump supports renewing the Keystone XL

Pipeline project to increase oil supply

Trump supports the Renewable Fuel Standard matching the

blend levels set by Congress

Trump wants to rescind the CPP

because he believes it has

crippled the coal industry, which

has only increased energy prices

Strongly opposes the Agreement

because he considers climate

change a hoax and the Agreement

too burdensome

Trump is not opposed to clean

energy investment, but he would rather invest in fossil

fuels because it is cheaper

Overview of major candidates’ stances on energy and environment

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

105

Trump’s family care plan give working parents substantial tax breaks, but also increases the deficit significantly


TRUMP VS. CLINTON CHILDCARE PLAN

Key policy takeaways from Trump’s speech

Analysis• This proposal addresses

some of the essential issues Democrats are focusing on this election cycle

• Trump has already overhauled his tax plan once before during the campaign as estimates placed the cost of his initial plan at $9 trillion over 10 years

• Trump’s campaign said they would reduce unemployment insurance fraud to finance a portion of their plan

• The proposal also pledged to promote family and community-based solutions as well as to incentivize childcare at the workplace, but it did not go into detail

Childcare tax deductions •Individuals earning up to $250,000 and joint filing households making up to $500,000 will be able to deduct the average cost of child care for up to four children and elderly dependents from their taxes•Households with a stay-at-home parent will also qualify for this deduction •CNBC reported last month that the childcare tax break would cost $158 billion a year

Childcare rebates•For families not making enough money to pay federal income taxes, Trump proposed a $1,200 childcare rebate•This came in response to the criticism Trump’s childcare tax deduction plan faced last month for disproportionally placing the burden of childcare on low income families

Paid maternity leave •Trump promised to guarantee six weeks of paid maternity leave; currently, the U.S. is one of the only countries in the world that does not mandate paid leave of any kind for new parents•He did not mention paternity leave

Dependent care savings account •This savings account would allow for tax deductible contributions and tax free appreciation year-to-year•In addition, the government also would match half of the first $1,000 deposited each year •The savings account plan would cost the government $25 billion a year and does not benefit families who cannot afford to contribute money to this account annually

Source: “Fact sheet: Donald J. Trump’s new child care plan,” Donald J. Trump, September 13, 2016; Scott Detrow and Domenico Montanaro, “Trump campaign sketches out family care plans; questions linger over funding,” NPR, September 13, 2016; Noun Project, Nut Chanut, Parkjusuh, CreativeStak, Alex Tai.

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Clinton’s childcare plan focuses primarily on early education and tax cuts


Key policy takeaways from Clinton’s proposal

Analysis• Clinton first unveiled her

childcare plan in May • The campaign has not

released funding specifics, but they have indicated that most programs will be funded by tax increases on the wealthy

• Childcare takes up an average of 30% of a minimum-wage worker’s earnings in every state, so subsidizing any costs over 10% of income will be substantial

Cap childcare costs at 10 percent of income•Using tax cuts or state block grants the government will subsidize childcare costs exceeding 10 percent of a family’s income

Universal pre-school•Over the next 10 years, Clinton pledged to ensure preschool is available for every 4-year-old in the country and to double the government investment in Early Head Start programs

Paid maternity and paternity leave •Clinton promised 12 weeks of paid family leave for both parents guaranteeing at least two-thirds of their salary

Raising childcare workforce salaries •Clinton’s Respect and Increased Salaries for Early Childhood Educators (RAISE) initiative will fund and support states and local communities that increase the compensation of childcare providers and early educators

Expand home visiting programs •Clinton pledged to double the government investment in evidence-based home visiting programs that provide visits by social workers or nurses during and after pregnancy to improve maternal and child health

Support student parents with scholarships and childcare•Clinton has pledged to increase access to childcare on college campuses and provide financial support to parents in college

Source: “Early childhood education,” Hillary Clinton, May, 2016; Leigh Ann Caldwell, “Comparing Trump and Clinton’s child care plans,” NBC News, September 13, 2016; Danielle Paquette, “The enormous ambition of Hillary Clinton’s child-care plan,” The Washington Post, May 12, 2016; Noun Project, Michael Thompson, Grego Cresnar, Rediffusion, Mani Amini.

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Presidential candidate stances on science & tech issues indicate different visions of future policy

2016 CANDIDATE SCIENCE & TECH POSITIONS

September 6, 2016 | Yanni Chen

Sources: “2016 Candidate Report Card,” Engine Research, 2016; “Hillary Clinton’s Infrastructure Plan,” Hillary for America, 2016; On the Issues, 2016; Joan Solsman, “Apple v. the FBI,” the Wrap, February 19, 2016; Norman Anderson, “Infrastructure in a Trump or Clinton Administration,” The Hill, March 8, 2016; “Clinton vs. Trump: Comparing the Candidates’ Positions on Technology and Innovation,” Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, September 2016.

Issues Clinton Trump

Encryption & the FBI –Apple Dispute

Does not want to force companies to provide backdoors; suggestscreating a “Manhattan-like project” by tech companies and the government; took an equivocal position in FBI-Apple dispute

Supported a court order that would have required Apple to develop a backdoor; referred to Apple as “disgraceful” for resisting the court order to give encrypted data to the FBI, called for a boycott of Apple products

Privacy & Surveillance

Voted for the PATRIOT Act in 2001 and its reauthorization in 2006, but voted against extending the act’s wiretap provision; expresses support for NSA reform; pledged to modernize the MLAT process

Vocalized support for reauthorizing the PATRIOT Act and NSA collection of bulk cellphone metadata collection in 2015; called for database on incoming Syrians and surveillance of mosques

Broadband Regulation

Led a project expanding online access overseas as Secretary of State, is aiming for affordable universal Internet access in the US, and plans to fight the telecom industry; supports net neutrality

Does not support net neutrality, calling it a “top down power grab” by Obama, fears it will lead to the censorship of conservative media

Cyber Warfare

Has challenged China with regards to hacking efforts, saying countries attempting to compromise US cybersecurity will “pay the price”

Suggested “closing the Internet in some way” in order to combat ISIS recruitment tactics and has criticized the Obama Administration's response to Chinese cyberattacks

NASA Funding

Supported reversing 2008 NASA spending cuts, has reiterated her support and wants to grow its budget this election cycle

Has expressed positive views on NASA, but wants to focus on domestic infrastructure improvements first

Investment in Infrastructure

Released a five-year $275 billion infrastructure proposal, which includes investing in transit and roads, creating “smart cities” with an infrastructure compatible with the Internet of Things, and using clean energy sources

Calls for increased spending on rebuilding US infrastructure, has promised to spend at least $1 trillion, plans on investing in high-speed railways, airports, roads, power grid, highways, and a 1000 mile wall on the US-Mexican border

Comparison of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s opinions on critical policy topics

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Chapter 8Battleground State Strategies

Battleground state: Clinton approaches Pennsylvania with confidence while Trump is ambitious

Presidential candidate strategy in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania From Clinton’s Perspective

•Clinton and Kaine spent the first days after the Democratic Convention on a bus tour through Pennsylvania and Ohio promoting Clinton’s plans to add jobs and encourage domestic manufacturing. Clinton then returned to PA, stopping in Scranton and Philadelphia with Vice President Biden.

•Their aim in this bus tour was to take on Trump where he is the strongest: among blue collar white males.

•Holding the DNC in Philadelphia likely created momentum for the Clinton campaign in the state.

•On why Republicans will have a hard time picking up Pennsylvania, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said, “For every blue-collar Democrat we will lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two or three moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Philadelphia.”

•The state has not gone Republican since 1988.

•Pennsylvania was not among Clinton’s initial ad buys, indicating a degree of confidence in carrying the state.

August 22, 2016 | Madelaine Pisani

Sources: Tom Fontaine, “In Tight Senate Race, Toomey Teetering in Support of Trump,” TribLive, August 7, 2016; Dan Balz, Philip Rucker, “In Final 100 Days, Clinton and Trump to Chart Different Paths to White House,” Washington Post, July 30, 2016; POLITICO’s Battleground States Polling Average, August 9, 2016; Lisa Hagen, “Trump Effect Spills Into Pennsylvania Senate Race,” The Hill, August 21, 2016.

Pennsylvania From Trump’s Perspective

•Pennsylvania has a large population of citizens with the Trump-voter profile: blue-collar white males.

•Despite the demographics, Pennsylvania is considered a reach for Trump right now because of his weakness in appealing to college-educated moderate Republicans

•Trump’s campaign manager, Paul Manafort, maintains that Pennsylvania is “wide open” and notes if Trump can get those 20 electoral votes, there are many more ways of getting to 270.

•Trump trails Clinton by 10 points in the state and his unpopularity is contributing to the boost Democratic Senate challenger Katie McGinty has experienced in her own race. She leads by an average of 3 points.

•Pennsylvania’s incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R) faces significant pressure from McGinty to disavow Trump.

•In an op-ed column published in May, Toomey wrote, “Trump was not my first, second or third choice. I object to much in his manner and his policies … I find his campaign highly problematic.”

PENNSYLVANIA BATTLEGROUND

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Wisconsin may have lost its battleground appeal for Trump

Presidential Candidate Strategy in Wisconsin

Wisconsin From Clinton’s Perspective

•Wisconsin has been going blue in presidential elections since 1984, however it has a large population of white, blue collar voters who fit the profile of a Trump voter.

•Clinton does have strong support in Milwaukee and Madison and a Trump victory would be difficult without them.

•Neither Clinton nor Trump has invested in Wisconsin advertising. For Trump that doesn’t mean much because he has not spent much on ads in any state, but for Clinton it indicates she is confident in support from Wisconsin. She also has $98 million reserved for airtime nationally, so we may see some of that moved to Wisconsin in the future if need be.

•Tim Kaine spent August 5th touring a Milwaukee microbrewery.

•Clinton is currently polling at an average of 43.8% to Trump’s 35.4% in Wisconsin.


Sources: Adam Wollner, “On Wisconsin?” National Journal, August 5, 2016; POLITICO’s Battleground States Polling Average, August 9, 2016.

Wisconsin From Trump’s Perspective

•Trump is facing a tough fight for Wisconsin, with Milwaukee and Madison appearing to be Democrat strongholds.

•Trump’s challenge is somewhat compounded by Trump’s rift with the state’s Republican leaders, Gov. Scott Walker, Sen. Ron Johnson, and Speaker Paul Ryan, who Trump was reluctant to endorse before Ryan’s primary.

•None of these Wisconsin Republicans attended Trump’s August 5th rally in WI.

•The state’s talk radio hosts, who were influential in Trump’s Wisconsin primary loss, have maintained their opposition to the candidate.

•Trump held a rally August 5th in Green Bay, a key swing area, and Mike Pence spent time in Waukesha the preceding week.

WISCONSIN BATTLEGROUND

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Battleground state: North Carolina is no longer the Republican stronghold it once was

Presidential candidate strategy in North Carolina

North Carolina from Clinton’s perspective

•Clinton appears to have a slight edge in North Carolina, leading Trump by 0.7 points in the most recent RCP Average

•Though NC is a key state for Clinton to take from Trump, Democratic party leaders may pressure the candidate to spend time in other states to bolster Senate candidates who may help the party gain a majority

•Black voters, an electorate with whom Clinton has a strong advantage, have a bigger share of the total vote in NC than in any other battleground state with 23%

•Obama was the first Democrat in three decades to carry the state, but lost to Romney in NC in 2012

•Clinton has 30 field offices in the state, while Trump has only recently opened three

•Clinton and Clinton supporters have booked $16 million in PA ads, while Trump has booked just $1 million in ads

September 13, 2016 | Madelaine Pisani

Sources: Katie Guleck, “Time running out on Trump in North Carolina,” POLITICO, August 18, 2016; Gabby Morrongiello, “Trump opens first field offices in N.C. while Clinton opens no.20,” Washington Examinier, September 12, 2016; Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney, Daniel Strauss, “25 battleground counties to watch,” POLITICO, August 8, 2016; RealClearPolitics Poll Average, September 13, 2016; Niall Stanage; “Will Trump or Clinton Win? The 11 states deciding the race,” The Hill, September 7, 2016.

North Carolina from Trump’s perspective

• Trump and Clinton have been neck and neck in September NC polling, though overall Clinton appears to have a slight edge and as of September 13th, Trump trails Clinton by 0.7 points in the RCP Average

• State GOP operatives call NC a must-win state for Trump and worry that the candidate’s under-developed ground game will fail to consolidate the Republican base in the state

• Without the base, Trump will have a difficult time overcoming his unfavorability with NC’s large population of college-educated voters as well as Black and Latino voters

• Trump opened his first three field offices in the state on September 12th in an effort to surpass Clinton considering he was able to keep the race very close with little to no ground game in the state

• Lara Trump, the candidate’s daughter-in-law, and Omarosa Manigault, a former Celebrity Apprentice contestant, met with volunteers at the launch of these offices to energize supporters

NORTH CAROLINA BATTLEGROUND

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Battleground state: Trump and Clinton play tug of war for the white working class vote in New Hampshire

Presidential candidate strategy in New Hampshire

New Hampshire from Clinton’s perspective

•Clinton has held a strong lead in New Hampshire since the race began and according to the most recent RealClearPolitics Average, she is up five points in the state, though a recent NBC/WSJ/Marist poll shows a tighter race among likely NH voters

•Clinton runs a robust ground game in the state, evident in her 17 NH field offices, while Trump has only one field office in the state

•The NH electorate is about as white as Iowa’s, but the social attitudes in the state lean more libertarian, which contributes to Clinton’s stronger lead in NH than in Iowa

•Because Bernie Sanders is a favorite in NH (he won the NH primary in February), Clinton will likely campaign with him in the fall to unite the state’s Democratic base

•Clinton has also planned to spend $8.7 million on TV advertising in NH


Sources: Janet Hook, “Contest expands to new battlegrounds,” Wall Street Journal, September 11, 2016; Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney, Daniel Strauss, “25 battleground counties to watch,” POLITICO, August 8, 2016; RealClearPolitics Poll Average, September 13, 2016; Kate Kaye, “Trump’s TV turning point: data-driven ad buys are happening,” AdAge, September 8, 2016; Niel Vigdor, “Trump campaign steers Conn. voters to NH,” CT Post, September 12, 2016.

New Hampshire from Trump’s perspective

•Trump may be making a late comeback in NH, the state that gave him his first primary win in February

•Though he is down by five points according to the RCP average, his campaign gained momentum from an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll (released Sept. 11th) showing Trump behind Clinton by only one point in NH among likely voters and tied among registered voters

•Trump, as recently as Sept. 3rd, began investing in data-driven ad buys on cable channels in the state

•In a move that raised some eyebrows in Connecticut, the Trump campaign emailed CT supporters to canvass in NH and shift some of their resources to NH in an effort to rally support and increase momentum across New England

•Trump may be able to appeal to the state’s largely white electorate with his tough stance on immigration and “America first” policy on trade

NEW HAMPSHIRE BATTLEGROUND

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Battleground state: Ohio is one of the closest races in the country for Trump and Clinton

Presidential candidate strategy in Ohio

Ohio From Clinton’s Perspective

•Clinton’s strategy is focused on driving turnout in cities and appealing to moderates in the suburbs.

•The message to persuade Republicans to flip is “on social issues and national security, Trump can’t be trusted, and his rhetoric toward women and minorities – including disabled people – is disqualifying.”

•The Clinton campaign and one of the top Super PACs behind her, Priorities USA, have run ads on this theme.

•Clinton’s campaign is targeting the same Ohio demographics that drove Obama’s success in the state. The campaign will aim to bring African Americans, women, Latinos, and organized labor into her support base.

•While labor leadership is behind Clinton, the campaign will have to defend against some in the “labor community” who are drawn to Trump.

•Cuyahoga County (Cleveland area) is a major bellwether for Ohio. According to party operatives, anywhere above 260,000 votes in the county for Democrats would guarantee the state for Clinton.


Sources: Katie Glueck, “How Ohio will be won,” POLITICO, July 31, 2016; POLITICO’s Battleground States Polling Average, August 15, 2016; Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney, Daniel Strauss, “25 battleground counties to watch,” POLITICO, August 8, 2016.

Ohio From Trump’s Perspective

•Ohio is one of Trump’s most promising battleground states, in which he is neck and neck with Clinton at 41.8% to her 43.8%.

•Trump is doing better than Republicans have historically in Ohio’s Democratic strongholds.

•Stuart Garson, chairman of the (Cleveland area) Cuyahoga County Democrats, says his focus will be defending against Trump’s appeal to “what historically might be referred to as Reagan Democrats.”

•Trump does have a strained relationship with Ohio state party leadership, especially after his campaign chairman said Gov. Kasich “embarrassed his state” by skipping the RNC Convention and withholding his endorsement.

•Trump’s main base in Ohio is in the eastern and southeastern counties, filled with blue-collar towns and many coal miners who are angry with Clinton for her pledge to put coal miners “out of business.”

OHIO BATTLEGROUND

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Battleground state: Virginia may be out of reach for Donald Trump

Presidential candidate strategy in Virginia

Virginia from Clinton’s perspective

•Virginia is one of Clinton’s strongest battleground states, though it was a Republican stronghold until 2008

•In RealClearPolitics’ average, Clinton leads in Virginia by 5 points and she has suspended advertising there with no plans to buy more advertising in the future

•Clinton seems to be indicating a high level of confidence about her lead in the state

•In 2012, 20% of Virginia voters were black. This demographic has shown itself to be very loyal to Clinton, especially in a matchup against Trump

•Virginia also had the highest percentage of college graduates in its voting population in 2012 among the 11 battleground states, which is a population that tends to favor Clinton over Trump.

•Clinton will likely look to running mate Tim Kaine, Virginia’s former governor and senator, to sure up her lead in the state


Sources: Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney, “Trump’s shrinking swing state map,” POLITICO, September 8, 2016; Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney, Daniel Strauss, “25 battleground counties to watch,” POLITICO, August 8, 2016; RealClearPolitics Polling Averages, September 9, 2016.

Virginia from Trump’s perspective

•Trump does not appear to be putting much emphasis on Virginia and Republican operatives in the state suggest that it is leaning so heavily toward Clinton that it might be unwinnable for Trump

•Trump has not invested in advertising in the state thus far

•According to a Virginia GOP operative, “the overall vote is going to be determined by Northern Virginia and the Tidewater area” – these are areas where Trump lost in the primary and where demographics include immigrants and college-educated voters

•Trump also has to contend with the advantage Clinton gains from Tim Kaine’s wide appeal in the state and her close relationship to the state’s current governor, Terry McAuliffe

•Tom Davis, a former VA congressman, says if Trump starts running ads and holding more events in the state, he would have an opportunity to even up the score

VIRGINIA BATTLEGROUND

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Battleground state: Trump slow to start in Florida while Clinton invests heavily in the state

Presidential candidate strategy in Florida

Florida From Clinton’s Perspective

•Clinton and her allies have spent over $20 million so far in Florida according to NBC News.

•In an August 2nd rally at Daytona State College, Tim Kaine stressed that it was his second trip to the state in 10 days saying, “I think you can see that to the Clinton team, Florida is really, really important.”

•The campaign is targeting the “I-4 corridor” of swing counties with middle-income families as well as younger families and an influx of Hispanic voters including many citizens who have left the economic difficulty in Puerto Rico.

•Clinton currently leads in Florida, polling at an average of 45.4% to Trump’s 40.6%.

•According to the Clinton camp, her campaign has “a few hundred staffers on the ground” and many are focused on registration efforts.

•In the coming weeks the campaign will also send surrogates and entertainers to rally support in the state.


Sources: Jonathan Swan, “Trump Campaign Plans Rapid Florida Expansion,” The Hill, August 13, 2016; John Wagner, Ed O’Keefe, “Fast-Growing, Diverse Part of Florida Earns Special Attention from Clinton, Trump,” The Washington Post, August 2, 2016; POLITICO’s Battleground States Polling Average, August 15, 2016.

Florida From Trump’s Perspective

•Trump has pre-existing ties to Florida; the most significant being Trump National Golf Course in Doral which is his biggest source of income according to his most recent FEC filings.

•After weeks of very little activity in Florida, Trump met with the Republican National Committee in Orlando on August 12th (87 days before the general election) to agree on a plan to increase efforts in Florida.

•Trump and the RNC will open 25 Florida field offices and enlist more than 200 paid staff by Labor Day.

•Without Florida, Trump would have a much more difficult path to 270 electoral votes.

•The candidate has not yet run any general-election ads, instead relying on rallies to energize supporters.

•Trump and campaign insiders explain that this delayed strategy in Florida is deliberate and meant to let Clinton run through the motions and run through her resources. The Trump campaign is planning to begin advertising in Florida “very, very shortly; probably in the next week or so.”

FLORIDA BATTLEGROUND

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Chapter 9Debate Intel

2016 GENERAL ELECTION DEBATE SCHEDULE

Commission on presidential debatesdecides on debate sites for general election

Source: Commission on Presidential Debates, “Commission on Presidential Debates Announces Sites and Dates for 2016 General Election Debates,” September 23, 2015.

October 20, 2016 | Katharine Conlon, Christine Yan and Owen Minott

First Presidential Debate:September 26, 2016Moderated by Lester Holt, NBCHofstra UniversityHempstead, NY

Vice Presidential Debate: October 4, 2016Moderated by Elaine Quijano, CBSLongwood UniversityFarmville, Virginia

Second Presidential Debate:October 9, 2016Moderated by Anderson Cooper and Martha Raddatz, CNNWashington University in St. LouisSt. Louis, Missouri

Third Presidential Debate:October 19, 2016Moderated by Chris Wallace, Fox NewsUniversity of NevadaLas Vegas, Nevada

October 2016

1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30 31

September 2016

1 2 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11 12 13 14 15 16 17

18 19 20 21 22 23 24

25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Presidential Debate Vice Presidential Debate

118

119September 16, 2016 | Libbie Wilcox

Sources: Colin Diersing and Karyn Bruggeman, “PPP polls show Clinton with debate advantage,” National Journal, September 30, 2016.

■ Clinton ■ Trump



Automated survey of who won Monday’s debate

Public Policy Polling

PPP polls show Clinton with debate advantage

Analysis •PPP’s automated surveys all show Clinton as having won Monday’s debate•Her smallest margin of victory is 17 percentage points in Florida, 52% to 35%

Debate breaks viewership records

September 30, 2016 | Justin C. Brown and Libbie Wilcox

Source: Karyn Bruggeman, “Debate breaks viewership records,” September 28, 2016; Joe Concha, “Final numbers show record-setting viewership for debate,” The Hill, September 28, 2016.

Average viewership totals across main networks

Nielsen, viewership in millions

84 million

93 million

Total television viewership:

Estimated combined television and online viewership:

The 84 million accounts for people who watched via traditional TV channels at home. People who watched at parties, bars, restaurants, and offices were not included.



DEBATE VIEWERSHIP

Debate viewership fell sharply from Trump and Clinton’s first showdown

Sources: Karyn Bruggeman, “Clinton draws large crowd at Ohio State,” National Journal, October 11, 2016.

5

Presidential debate viewership, 2012 v 2016

Nielsen – October 10, 2016

Analysis • 20% fewer people tuned in to watch the

second presidential debate than the first• In 2012, there was less of a drop in

viewership between debates, but fewer viewers watched overall


■ First debate ■ Second debate

PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE


Sources: Aaron Blame and Team Fix, “The first Trump-Clinton presidential debate transcript, annotated,” The Washington Post, September 26, 2016; Kyle Cheney, “The 10 most memorable moments of the presidential debate,” Politico, September 26, 2016; Jonathan Easley and Amie Parnes, “Five takeaways from wild debate,” The Hill, September 27, 2016.

Takeaway Overview Possible effect on voters

1. Both candidates ran into issues regarding trust and truthfulness

Trump was slammed for his refusal to release his tax returns and trouble managing his business while Clinton suffered from continued talk about deleted emails. Trump also garnered significant pushback from moderator Lester Holt who fact checked the candidate several times throughout the debate.

Constant talk about trust hurts both candidates and likely increases the chances that voters on both sides will either sit out the election or vote for third party candidates

2. Clinton carefully navigated discussion on race relations while Trump tripped over birther issue

When Holt transitioned to the topic of race, Clinton discussed racial inequality and implicit bias while Trump focused on “law and order” and improving community relations. Trump later got trapped in a discussion of his stance on the Obama birther issue and added little information on the topic.

Clinton likely appealed to millennials, who have been instrumental in race relations through groups like Black Lives Matter. Trump likely satisfied his base but said little that would sway undecided voters.

3. Trump found his footing when attacking Clinton on trade

Trump unloaded on Clinton’s experience with trade deals, citing NAFTA and her initial support of TPP as moves that have hurt Americans more than helped. Clinton drew attention to the success of trade in the 90s as evidence of a path forward.

Trump will likely benefit from these attacks as his words may resonate with blue-collar voters in swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

4. Both candidates faltered when discussing national security

Clinton showed her foreign policy prowess by highlighting her work with NATO and her plan to defeat ISIS while Trump criticized Democrats’ past mistakes that resulted in ISIS’s formation. Trump also got stuck fighting against both Clinton and Holt on his past comments regarding his support for the war in Iraq.

Trump’s attacks bring focus to Clinton’s past mistakes but his positivity toward Putin and lack of constructive proposals make voters’ reactions extremely difficult to predict.

Key takeaways from the first presidential debate

Race, security and trade are key topics during first debate

VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE


Sources: National Journal Research, 2016.

1. Takeaway Overview

1. Pence backtracked from several of Trump’s positions

Pence insinuated that Trump would not immediately deport all undocumented immigrants. Pence interrupted Kaine’s dark description of Trump’s roaming “deportation force,” insisting it was “nonsense,” but not specifying which undocumented immigrants would be allowed to stay. Kaine also accused Pence and Trump of having an affinity for Putin. Pence responded by calling Putin “a small, bullying leader” and insisting that Russian provocations need to be met with American strength.

2. Kaine was constantly on the attack

Kaine threw Trump’s own words at Pence all night, attempting to force him to respond to Trump’s comments about undocumented immigrants, a federal judge of Mexican descent, Sen. John McCain’s war record and woman. Except for the few times when Pence diverged from Trump’s previous statements, he was able to avoid Kaine’s heated attacks.

3. Quijano often cut debate short in order to get through her selected topics

Although Quijano cut some exchanges short to switch topics, she managed to get Pence and Kaine to answer questions about a variety of issues, facilitating a more targeted policy discussion than the presidential debate. The candidates discussed immigration, foreign policy, criminal justice reform and abortion rights.

4. Pence’s temperament won the debate

Kaine’s continual interruptions made the conversation harder to follow. Paine, a former radio host, was well prepared to handle Kaine’s attacks without taking the bait.

Analysis • Historically, VP debates do not

affect the outcome of the election

• Despite the CNN/ORC poll showing Pence’s performance was six percentage points better than Kaine’s, it is unlikely that this will have a significant effect on Trump’s poll numbers

• Social media is buzzing with speculation that the debate was a preview for Pence’s 2020 run

Kaine enters debate ready to attack

Key takeaways from the VP debate

1

The first general election debate was one of the most anticipated in recent history


Sources: Rebecca Savransky, “Clinton Camp Talking to Trump Co-Author for Debate Prep,” The Hill, August 30, 2016; Joe Concha, “Networks Brace for Decision on Trump-Clinton Debate Refs,” The Hill, August 16, 2016; Patrick Healy, Matt Flegenheimer, “Hillary Clinton Piles up Research in Bid to Needle Donald Trump at First Debate,” NY Times, August 29, 2016; Commission on Presidential Debates, 2016.

PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

Key information about the upcoming presidential debates

Debate Moderators

Lester Holt, NBC News

NY Location: Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

Date: Monday, September 26, 2016

Debate Structure

Time Segment

1

2

3

4

5

6

15 minute time segments.Each on a separate topic.

Moderator: Opens with a questionCandidate A: 2 minutes to respondCandidate B: 2 minutes to respond• Candidates will use the

remaining time to respond to each other.

• Time will be balanced between candidates by the moderator.

Chris Wallace, Fox News

Anderson Cooper, CNN

Martha Raddatz, ABC News

1

First DebateMonday, Sept. 26Hempstead, NY

Second DebateSunday, Oct. 9St. Louis, MO

Third DebateWednesday, Oct. 19

Las Vegas, NV

PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

Donald Trump approaches debate preparation with a confident, laissez-faire attitude

A breakdown of Donald Trump’s debate preparation



Debate Weaknesses•Tendency toward unclear language•Likely will not have a mastery of policy details•Lack of preparation

2

Strategy Specifics•In a recent interview, Trump said, “I believe you can prep too much for those things [debates]. It can be dangerous. You can sound scripted or phony—like you’re trying to be someone you’re not.” •Trump has spent the past two Sundays with his debate team, but has been reluctant to engage in mock debates.•These meetings instead were used as time for Trump to ask questions about debate topics, Clinton’s debate skills, and possible moderators. •Roger Ailes, recently ousted Fox News chairman, has been a key advisor in debate prep meetings. •Trump cites his success in the 11 primary debates he participated in and is confident saying, “I know how to handle Hillary.”

Debate Strengths • Unpredictable• Confident/experienced in front of a camera

PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

Hillary Clinton’s careful debate strategy seeks to bait Trump into making his own blunders

A breakdown of Hillary Clinton’s debate preparation



Debate Weaknesses•Responding to personal attacks, past scandals•Clarity of message surrounding private email server and Clinton Foundation donations•Potential to appear condescending

3

Strategy Specifics•Clinton has been focusing on understanding Trump’s psyche. She has employed psychology experts and spoken with Trump’s “Art of the Deal” ghostwriter to create a personality profile for her opponent. •Clinton does not see a debate victory in overwhelming Trump with policy details. Instead she is looking for methods to bait her opponent into making blunders. •Clinton wants to avoid a debate that characterizes Trump as the truth-telling political outsider and characterizes her as a product of the establishment with questionable ethics. •The Clinton camp believes Trump is most insecure about his intelligence, his net worth, and his reputation as a successful businessman. Clinton is developing ways to target those areas in the debate. •However, Clinton also has to defend against appearing condescending or like a know-it-all. •Clinton is also preparing for Trump to attack her personal history, particularly her marriage. •The Clinton campaign has not yet chosen who will play Trump in the debate preparations, as many do not want to say the below-the-belt things Trump may bring up.

Debate Strengths • Experienced with political debate• Deep knowledge and familiarity with policy

details• Thorough debate preparation

Trump interrupted Clinton 51 times, Holt interrupted her 70 times


Source: Sarah Frostenson and Emily Crockett, “Trump interrupted Clinton 51 times at the debate,” Vox, September 27, 2016.

DEBATE INTERRUPTIONS

■ Clinton interrupted by Holt ■ Clinton interrupted by Trump ■ Trump interruptions by Holt ■ Trump interruptions by Clinton

Amount of times interrupted during debate: Clinton vs. Trump

Analysis• Clinton was interrupted

significantly more by Holt throughout the debate than Trump was; however, Trump raised his voice and interrupted Clinton more often


Source: Tim Chester, “These topics dominated Twitter, Facebook and Google during the debate,” Mashable, September 27, 2016; Twitter.com/gov.

SEPTEMBER 26 DEBATE SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY

Clinton draws more new followers, but Trump is more discussed on Twitter during first debate

Most Tweeted moments:1.Trump says he has “good temperament” (and Clinton’s response)2.Trump comments on stop and frisk3.Trump and Clinton exchange over plan to defeat ISIS

New Twitter followers

Twitter mentions

Most Tweeted topics:1.The economy2.Foreign affairs3.Energy and environment4.Terrorism5.Guns

The most retweeted tweet during the debate was something Trump wrote in 2012 about global warming

September 26th presidential debate


January 29, 2016 | Owen Minott Jr

Source: Tim Chester, “These topics dominated Twitter, Facebook and Google during the debate,” Mashable, September 27, 2016; Google searches for ‘registrarse para votar’ hit all-time high during debate,” The Washington Post, September 27, 2016.

SEPTEMBER 26 DEBATE SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY

Clinton more searched on Google, Trump dominates Facebook discussion in first debate

• Google searches for “registrarse para votar” (“register to vote,” in Spanish) hit an all-time high during the debate, reaching over 100,000 searches and become the third trending search in the US

• Clinton was more searched on Google than Trump in all 50 states

• Much of the discussion about both candidates on Facebook was negative

Candidate Google searches

Candidate Facebook mentionsTop searched debate topics on Google:1.Voter registration2.Police3.ISIS4.Race issues5.Immigration6.Economy7.Abortion8.Climate change9.Affordable Care Act10.National debt



130

CNN/ORC, October 10

Sources: Colin Diersing and Karyn Bruggeman, “PPP polls show Clinton with debate advantage,” National Journal, September 30, 2016.

■ Clinton ■ Trump



Trump exceeds expectations, but Clinton won second debate

Analysis• Clinton may be the debate

favorite; however, 58% of viewers polled already supported her

• The debate was widely believed to be an especially low in what has been a divisive campaign without precedent

Debate instant poll: Trump vs. Clinton


GENERAL ELECTION POLLING

Clinton leads Trump in most polls, Gary Johnson still hasn’t met debate threshold

Polls used by the Commission on Presidential Debates


Source: Huffpost Pollster, “2016 General Election: Trump v. Clinton v. Johnson,” September 12, 2016.

Poll: ABCNews/WaPo CBS/NYT CNN/ORC Fox News NBC/WSJ

Date of Last Poll: 9/5-9/8 9/9-9/13 9/1-9/4 9/11-9/14 7/31-8/3

Hillary Clinton 46 42 43 41 43

Donald Trump 41 42 45 40 34

Gary Johnson 9 8 7 8 10

Jill Stein 2 4 2 3 5

A candidate needs to average at least 15% among the five major polls in order to be eligible for the nationally televised debates. The last third-party candidate to be featured in a presidential debate was Ross Perot in 1992.

TOP 10 PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE RATINGS

August 16, 2016 | Alexander Perry

Sources: Nielsen, “From Your House to the White House: The Top Presidential Debates,” August 15, 2016.; Noun Project, Edward Boatman, Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Yi Chen, Alex Tai, Alex WaZa.

Year Date Democrat Republican IndependentHouseholds (in millions)

2012 10/3/12 Obama Romney 46.2

1980 10/28/80 Carter Reagan 45.8

2012 10/16/12 Obama Romney 45.6

2008 10/07/08 Obama McCain 44.4

1992 10/15/92 Clinton Bush Perot 43.1

2004 9/30/04 Kerry Bush 43.0

1992 10/15/92 Clinton Bush Perot 42.1

2012 10/22/12 Obama Romney 41.2

2008 10/15/08 Obama McCain 40.0

1984 10/21/84 Mondale Reagan 39.1

Top 10 presidential debates ranked by average household audience

6 of the top 10 rated debates occurred within the last three election years.

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