EIA’s April 2005 Analysis of Modeled NCEP Recommendations
description
Transcript of EIA’s April 2005 Analysis of Modeled NCEP Recommendations
EIA’s April 2005 Analysis of Modeled NCEP Recommendations
Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy AdministratorEnergy Information Administration
Presented at:National Commission on Energy Policy Workshop
September 1, 2005Washington, D.C
Background
• In December 2004, Senator Bingaman requested that EIA provide an analysis of the impacts of the NCEP policy recommendations
• EIA modeled some, but not all, of the NCEP regulatory and incentive programs and performed sensitivity analysis to consider alternative technology cost and availability scenarios
• The baseline for the analysis was the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case, which does not include programs in the recently enacted energy bill.
Cases Considered in EIA’s Analysis
REF =AEO2005 Reference Case
CAFE = REF +NCEP CAFE program(w/ details provided by Bingaman staff)
HiTechAEO2005 HiTech Case
Cap-Trade = REF +NCEP cap and trade program for greenhouse gases
(GHGs) including safety valve
No Safety = Cap-Trade w/o safety valve
Bldg-Std = REF + building/appl standards
NCEP = All modeled policiesNCEP-HiT
HiTech + NCEP
Incent = REF + tax incentives and Deployments
• Today’s briefing focuses on shaded cases• Full report at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/bingaman/index.html
Covered Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Three Cases,2002-2025 (million metric tons of CO2-equivalent)
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Cap-Trade
Reference
NCEP
Emissions Target
Emission Reductions by Category in Three Cases,2015 and 2025 (million metric tons of CO2-equivalent)
0
250
500
750
1000
2015 2025 2015 2025
Other Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide
NCEP Cap-Trade
Carbon Dioxide Reductions by Sector in Two Cases,2015 and 2025 (million metric tons carbon dioxide)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 2025 2015 2025
Commercial
Transportation
Residential
Electric Power
Industrial
NCEP Cap-Trade
Electricity Generation by Fuel in Three Cases, 2025(billion kilowatthours)
0
1000
2000
3000
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewable
2003 Cap-Trade
Reference NCEP
Cumulative Generating Capacity Additions by TechnologyType, 2004-2025 (gigawatts)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
ConventionalCoal
Coal IGCC Gas CombinedCycle
Nuclear Renewables
NCEP Cap-Trade
Reference
Oil Consumption in Four Cases, 2003-2025(million barrels per day)
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Cap-Trade Reference
NCEP
CAFE
Total Natural Gas Consumption in Three Cases,2003-2025 (quadrillion Btu)
22
24
26
28
30
32
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
ReferenceCAP-TRADENCEP
NCEP
Reference
Cap-Trade
Total Coal Consumption in Three Cases,2003-2025 (quadrillion Btu)
22
24
26
28
30
32
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
ReferenceCAP-TRADENCEP
Reference
Cap-Trade
NCEP
Emission Permit Prices in Three Cases, 2009-2025(2003 dollars per metric ton of CO2-equivalent)
0
10
20
30
40
2010 2015 2020 2025
Cap-TradeNCEP
No-Safety
Safety Valve Price
Electricity Prices in Three Cases, 2003, 2010, 2015, and 2025(2003 cents per kilowatthour)
0
2
4
6
8
2003 2010 2015 2025
NCEPCap-Trade
Ref
Impacts on the Consumer Price Index for Energy,2003-2025 (percent change from reference)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025
NCEP
Cap-Trade
Impacts on Real GDP and Consumption per Household
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025
NCEP
Cap-Trade
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2015 2020 2025 Average
NCEP
Cap-Trade
Real GDP(percent change from reference)
Loss in Consumption per Household(2003 dollars per household)
Total Primary Energy Consumption in Four Cases,2003-2025 (quadrillion Btu)
90
100
110
120
130
140
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
HiTech
Reference
NCEP
NCEP-HiTech
Emission Permit Prices in Two Cases, 2009-2025(2003 dollars per metric ton of CO2-equivalent)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2015 2020 2025
NCEP
NCEP-HiTech
Safety Valve Price