EIA’s Coal Outlook Through 2030 · 2009. 10. 15. · • EIA’s analyses and projections should...

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EIA’s Coal Outlook Through 2030

Diane KearneyEnergy Information Administration

U.S. Department of Energy

Surface Transportation Board

September 17, 2008Washington, DC

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Energy Information Administration

• Independent statistical agency within the Department of Energy– www.eia.doe.gov

• Produce monthly short-term and annual long-term forecasts of U.S. and world energy markets

• Short Term Energy Outlook– http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

• Annual Energy Outlook, 2008– http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html

• International Energy Outlook, 2008– http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

• Produce special analyses of emerging issues and the impacts of regulatory/legislative changes– http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/service_rpts.htm– http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysis.htm

• EIA’s analyses and projections should not be seen as advocating or reflecting any position of the Department of Energy, the Administration, or any other organization.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/service_rpts.htm

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysis.htm

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Topics

• AEO2008 Overview• Coal distribution and transportation prices

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AEO2008 Overview

Energy Production by Fuel, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Petroleum

Nonhydro renewables

Hydropower

Coal

Natural gas

Nuclear

ProjectionsHistory

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Reference Case (June 2008)

Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Natural Gas

Liquids

Nuclear

Coal

Nonhydro renewables

Hydropower

ProjectionsHistory


Coal Consumption by Sector, 1970-2030(million short tons)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2010 2020 2030

Electric Power

Other

Total

ProjectionsHistory

Coal to Liquids


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AEO2008 Reference Case Top 4 Growth Demand Regions, Growth in Select

Years Compared to 2006(million short tons)

2015 2030

+12 +88

+14 +66

+5 +53

+12 +45

Mountain

West South Central

West North Central

East South Central

AZ,NM,CO,UT,NV,MT,WY,ID

TX,LA,OK,AR

MN,IA,ND,SD,NE,MO,KS

AL,MS,KY,TN

AEO2008: Coal Production by Region, 1970-2030(million short tons)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2010 2020 2030

Wyoming PRB*

Appalachia

Total

Interior

ProjectionsHistory

Total: AEO2007

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Reference Case (June 2008); and Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (February 2007)

West (excluding Wyoming PRB)

* Wyoming PRB data for 1970 through 1976 are based on data reported by the U.S. Bureau of Mines and the U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration.

Coal Production, 2030 (and 2006)(million short tons)

233

148

94230

15

62

88 (31) 4 (3) 153 (99)

192 (136)

115 (237)

21 (19)

84 (50)

42 (34)

92 (62)

16 (16)

567 (431)*

4 (4)** 76 (41)

U.S. Total: 1,455 (1,163) million short tons

* Includes production from all mines in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin. ** Includes production from mines in both Alaska and Washington.


Average Minemouth Price of Coal by Region, 1980-2030(2006 dollars per short ton)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

West (incl. Wyoming PRB)U.S. Average

Interior

Appalachia37.42

24.65

ProjectionsHistory

U.S. Average,Nominal Dollars

Wyoming PRB*

* Wyoming PRB price data for 1980 through 2006 represent shipments from mines in Campbell county Wyoming. Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Reference Case (June 2008)

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U.S. Coal Production, 2006, 2020 and 2030(million short tons)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2006 2020 2030

AEO2008 Low Oil/Natural Gas Price AEO2008 Low Economic GrowthAEO2008 High Coal Cost AEO2008 ReferenceAEO2008 Low Coal Cost AEO2008 High Economic GrowthAEO2008 High Oil/Natural Gas Price S.2191 Core

AEO2008Reference

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (June 2008); and Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate SecurityAct of 2007 (April 2008).

**

13Key Differences between Alternative Cases

GDP Growth(avg. annual change from 2006)

World Oil Price,2030 (2006 dollars perbarrel)

Wellhead natural gas price, 2030(2006 dollars perMcf)

Eastern Coal Rail Rates*, 2030(percent change from 2006)

Western Coal Rail Rates*, 2030(percent change from 2006)

Mining Productivity(avg. annual change from 2006)

2% 0.6%

Coal High Cost

8% 8% -3%

S. 2191 Lieberman-Warner

39% below 2006

levels in 2030

Green-house Gas Cap

Reference 2.4% 1%$6.63$70

$119 $7.77High Oil/Gas Price

All cases include representation of the Clean Air Interstate Rule and Clean Air Mercury Rule.*Constant dollars.

Average Delivered Coal Prices, 1990-2030(2006 dollars per million Btu)

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

1990 1995 2000 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Reference

High Price

ProjectionsHistory

High Coal Cost

S.2191 Core

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (June 2008); and Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007 (April 2008).

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Coal Distribution and Transportation Prices

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General Assumptions

• Base transportation rates are derived from the difference between delivered prices and minemouth prices

• Transportation rates are modeled for origin region to destination region pairs

• Base year transportation rates are modified over time with an econometrically derived escalator (in 2030, 1% higher for East and 2% higher for West compared to 2006)

• Representation of fuel surcharge program• The model satisfies coal demand by choosing the least

cost solution

Distribution of coal to the Mountain Census Division, 2006* and 2030

(million short tons, percentage)

*Volumes with unknown destinations or origins are excluded. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. For 2006, 12 million tons is estimated to be sourced from Western Wyoming. Waste coal is excluded.

34, 27%

35, 27%

11, 9%35, 28%

12, 9%

Arizona/New Mexico Northern AppalachiaRocky Mountain Eastern InteriorWestern Montana WY PRBWestern Wyoming

2006*

2030

42, 19%

85, 39%

30, 14%

45, 21%

16, 7%

41, 15%

90, 34%

44, 16%

79, 29%

17, 6%

AEO2008 Reference

High Oil and Gas Price

Distribution of coal to the West South Central Census Division, 2006* and 2030


*Volumes with unknown destinations or origins are excluded. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. Waste coal is excluded.

107, 65%

49, 30%

3, 2%4, 2%

1, 1%

Western Interior WY PRBGulf Lignite Eastern InteriorRocky Mountain Imports

2006*

2030

4, 2% 139, 61%

84, 37%

4, 1% 191, 65%

101, 34%

AEO2008 Reference


Distribution of coal to the West North Central Census Division, 2006* and 2030


1, 1%

111, 70%

1, 1%

10, 6%

30, 19%

3, 2%

Rocky Mountain Western InteriorWY PRB Eastern InteriorCentral Appalachia Western MontanaDakota Lignite

2006*

2030

112, 49%

2, 1%

24, 11%88, 39%

142, 49%

2, 1%

24, 8%122, 42%

AEO2008 Reference



Distribution of coal to the East South Central Census Division, 2006* and 2030


26, 19%

9, 7%

4, 3%

0, 0%

12, 9%

5, 4%12, 9%

33, 23%

37, 26%

Central Appalachia Southern AppalachiaNorthern Appalachia Eastern InteriorWY PRB ImportsRocky Mountain Western MontanaWestern Interior

2006*

2030

26, 13%

82, 43%

27, 14%4, 2%

42, 22%

8, 4%4, 2%

30, 15% 3, 2%

24, 12%

85, 43%

18, 9%

5, 3%

31, 16%

AEO2008 Reference



Distribution of coal to the South Atlantic Census Division, 2006* and 2030



1, 1%

7, 4%

1, 1%

19, 10%

130, 65%

6, 3%

32, 16%

Southern Appalachia Central AppalachiaEastern Interior Wyoming PRBRocky Mountain Northern AppalachiaImports

2006*

2030 , 0%

75, 31%

8, 3%

28, 11%

58, 24%

23, 9%

54, 22%

, 0%

76, 34%

9, 4%

20, 9%

38, 17%

10, 4%

73, 32%

AEO2008 Reference


$14.97

$7.63

$16.16

$14.34

$13.14

$6.21

$19.51

$13.98

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25

Appalachia

Interior

West

Total

2006 dollars per short ton

347

100

197

33

677

151

257

112

819

299

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Appalachia

Interior

West

Imports

Total

million short tons

2006 2030

*Rates exclude exports. National Energy Modeling System run: AEO2008.d030208f.

Demand located East of the Mississippi

Transportation Rates and Volumes by Supply Region

$1.89

$9.97

$9.00

$1.85

$11.05

$9.88

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25

Interior

West

Total

2006 dollars per short ton

55

402

457

623

713

90

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Interior

West

Total

million short tons

2006 2030

Demand located West of the Mississippi

Transportation Rates and Volumes by Supply Region

*Rates exclude exports. National Energy Modeling System run: AEO2008.d030208f.

Distribution of coal from Central Appalachia, 2006 and 2030(million short tons)

0 25 50 75 100 125 150

AL, MS, KY, TN

OH, IN, IL, MI, WI

WV, MD, DC, DE, VA,NC, SC, GA, FL

NY, PA, NJ

2006*AEO2008 RefHigh Oil and Gas PriceHigh Coal CostLieberman-Warner

East South Central:

East North Central:

South Atlantic:

Middle Atlantic:

*Volumes with unknown origin, or unknown destination are not shown. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. Projected volumes of less than 1 million tons are not included.

Distribution of coal from Northern Appalachia, 2006* and 2030

(million short tons)

0 20 40 60 80 100

AL, MS, KY, TN

WV, MD, DC, DE, VA, NC,SC, GA, FL

OH, IN, IL, MI, WI

NY, PA, NJ

2006*

AEO2008Ref

High Oil andGas Price

High CoalCost

Lieberman-Warner

East South Central:

East North Central:

South Atlantic:

Middle Atlantic:


Distribution of coal from Eastern Interior, 2006* and 2030(million short tons)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

AL, MS, KY, TN

OH, IN, IL, MI, WI

WV, MD, DC, DE, VA,NC, SC, GA, FL

MN, IA, ND,SD, NE, MO,KS

2006*AEO2008 RefHigh Oil and Gas PriceHigh Coal CostLieberman-Warner

East South Central:

East North Central:

South Atlantic:

West North Central:

•Volumes with unknown origin or unknown destination are not shown. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. Projected volumes of less than 1 million tons are not included.

Distribution of coal from WY PRB, 2006* and 2030(million short tons)

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200

AL, MS, KY, TN

OH, IN, IL, MI, WI

WV, MD, DC, DE, VA, NC, SC, GA,FL

MN, IA, ND,SD, NE, MO, KS

CO, UT, AZ, NM, MT, WY, ID

TX, LA, OK, AR

NY, PA, NJ

AK, HI, WA, OR, CA

2006*

AEO2008 Ref

High Oil andGas PriceHigh CoalCostLieberman-Warner

East South Central:East North Central:

West North Central:

Pacific:

South Atlantic:

Mountain:West South Central:Middle Atlantic:


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Contact Information

• Energy Information Administration• www.eia.doe.gov

• [email protected]

http://www.eia.doe.gov/

EIA’s Coal Outlook Through 2030 · 2009. 10. 15. · • EIA’s analyses and projections should...

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