EIA Outlook for U.S. Heating Fuels State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference North Falmouth,...
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Transcript of EIA Outlook for U.S. Heating Fuels State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference North Falmouth,...
EIA Outlook for U.S. Heating Fuels
State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference
North Falmouth, Massachusetts
Laurie Falter
Industry Economist
Energy Information Administration
August 7, 2006
Over the next year…
• Tight upstream and downstream refining capacity means there will be little slack in the supply lines if there is a supply disruption.
• As a result, geopolitical concerns (Iran, Nigeria, Israel-Lebanon, Venezuela, Iraq) will continue to worry the market.
• At this early juncture, it appears that fuel supplies should remain adequate for the coming winter, but prices will be high.
• Global and domestic demand will remain strong, continuing to grow despite high prices.
0102030405060708090
100
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Do
llar
s p
er B
arre
l
Forecast
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price (Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval)
Crude Oil Prices Likely to Remain Above $70 Through 2006
Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.
U.S. Crude Inventories Expected to be on High End of Normal Range, but with Lower Forward Cover
260
280
300
320
340
360
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
0
5
10
15
20
25
Day
s o
f F
orw
ard
Co
ver
NOTE: Colored band is the normal inventory range.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories & Forward CoverForecast
Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006
History
Mill
ion
Ba
rre
ls
Crude Oil OutlookConclusions
• U.S. and global oil inventories look high, but on a forward cover basis, they are not as robust.
• WTI prices expected to stay strong due to fundamentals and limited spare capacity
• There is potential for price spikes due to supply disruptions caused by events such as hurricane damage or geopolitical strife.
• U.S. Gulf Coast infrastructure is still recovering from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, with some capacity still off-line.
Winter Crude Oil and Distillate Price Outlook
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
$2.60
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07
$/G
allo
n
Forecast
Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.
ResidentialHeating Oil
WholesaleDistillate
Crude Oil (WTI)
Distillate Winter Demand Expected to Continue to Grow
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600J
ul
Au
g
Se
p
Oc
t
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
Th
ou
san
d B
arre
ls P
er D
ay
5-Year Average2006-20072005-20062004-2005
U.S. Distillate Product Supplied
Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.
Distillate Production Ramps Up Ahead of Peak Demand Season
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400J
ul
Au
g
Se
p
Oc
t
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
Th
ou
san
d B
arre
ls P
er D
ay
5-Year Average2006-20072005-20062004-2005
U.S. Distillate Production
Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.
Strong Crack Spreads Encourage High Refinery Production
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1/4/
2002
5/4/
2002
9/4/
2002
1/4/
2003
5/4/
2003
9/4/
2003
1/4/
2004
5/4/
2004
9/4/
2004
1/4/
2005
5/4/
2005
9/4/
2005
1/4/
2006
5/4/
2006
Cen
ts p
er G
allo
n
Gasoline
Heating Oil
Gulf Coast Products vs. WTI Crude Oil
Source: EIA calculations from Reuters spot prices.
Distillate Net Imports Should Be About Average Range This Winter
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500J
ul
Au
g
Se
p
Oc
t
No
v
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Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
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Ma
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Ju
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Th
ou
san
d B
arre
ls P
er D
ay
5-Year Average2006-20072005-20062004-2005
U.S. Distillate Net Imports
Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage Usually Opens for Distillates by November
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
601/
4/20
02
4/4/
2002
7/4/
2002
10/4
/200
2
1/4/
2003
4/4/
2003
7/4/
2003
10/4
/200
3
1/4/
2004
4/4/
2004
7/4/
2004
10/4
/200
4
1/4/
2005
4/4/
2005
7/4/
2005
10/4
/200
5
1/4/
2006
4/4/
2006
7/4/
2006
Cen
ts p
er G
allo
n
Gasoline
Heating Oil
New York Harbor vs. Rotterdam
v
Source: EIA calculations from Reuters spot prices.
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Mil
lio
n B
arre
ls
0
5
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20
25
30
35
40
Day
s o
f F
orw
ard
Co
ver
U.S. Total Distillate Stocks & Forward Cover
Distillate Stocks Expected to be in Normal Range This Winter, But Forward Cover Will Decline
Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.
Actual Forecast
Forward Cover
NOTE: Colored band is the normal inventory range.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Mil
lio
n B
arr
els
NOTE: Colored Band is Normal Stock Range
PADD 1A High-Sulfur Distillate Stocks
New England Heating Oil Inventories are Above Average through the End of July
Monthly
Source: Energy Information Administration.
Weekly
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Mil
lio
n B
arr
els
NOTE: Colored Band is Normal Stock Range
PADD 1B High-Sulfur Distillate Stocks
Central Atlantic Heating Oil Inventories are also Above Average
Monthly
Source: Energy Information Administration.
Weekly
Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Heating Oil (Northeast)
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-
2007
Actual Actual Actual Forecast (est.)
Consumption (gals.)
642 642 589 633
Average Price $1.46 $1.93 $2.44 $2.50
Expenditures $935 $1,237 $1,438 $1,580
Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.
Heating Oil OutlookConclusion
• Distillate stocks are expected to be on the high end of the normal range this winter.
• However, demand is expected to be strong, given normal temperatures, and forward cover will fall sooner and lower this year than the past year.
• Residential heating oil prices are expected to be about 6 cents per gallon higher this year than last year.
• Higher expected consumption and prices will boost expenditures by over $140 per household this winter.
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Propane Price Outlook
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07
$/G
allo
n
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$/M
CF
Forecast
Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.
ResidentialPropane
Natural Gas (Wellhead)
Crude Oil (WTI)
U.S. Propane Stocks Expected to Remain in the Lower Half of the Average Range This Winter
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90Ja
n-0
2
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Mil
lio
n B
arre
ls
Actual Forecast
Source: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2006
NOTE: Colored band is the normal inventory range.
East Coast Propane Stocks Expected to be Relatively Comfortable this Winter
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Ja
n-0
2
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Mil
lio
n B
arre
ls
Actual Forecast
NOTE: Colored band is the normal inventory range.Source: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2006
Midwest Propane Stocks Expected to be at or Above the Average Range this Winter
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Ja
n-0
2
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Mil
lio
n B
arre
ls
Actual Forecast
NOTE: Colored band is the normal inventory range.Source: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2006
Gulf Coast Propane Stocks Expected to Remain Low this Winter
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50Ja
n-0
2
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Mil
lio
n B
arre
ls
Actual Forecast
NOTE: Colored band is the normal inventory range.Source: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2006
Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Propane (Midwest)
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
Actual Actual Actual Forecast (est.)
Consumption (gals.)
796 787 749 807
Average Price $1.20 $1.42 $1.67 $1.73
Expenditures $951 $1,114 $1,247 $1,395
Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.
Propane OutlookConclusion
• U.S. inventories likely to remain in the middle of the historic average range, although regionally the situation is mixed
• Propane prices are expected to be about 6 cents/gallon higher this winter
• Residential consumption is expected to be somewhat higher than last winter, given normal temperatures
• Higher expected consumption and prices will boost expenditures by almost $150 per household this winter.
Crude Oil and Gasoline Price Outlook
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07
$/G
allo
n
Forecast
Regular Gasoline
WholesaleGasoline
Crude Oil (WTI)
Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
Jan
-02
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Mil
lio
n B
arre
ls
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Day
s o
f F
orw
ard
Co
ver
NOTE: Colored Band is Normal Stock Range
U.S. Total Gasoline InventoriesForward Cover (right axis)
Inventories (left axis)
U.S. Gasoline Inventories Are Typical, But Demand Growth Puts Forward Cover Relatively Lower
Source: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2006.Source: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, July .
Gasoline OutlookConclusion
• U.S. inventories are expected to be on the high end of the historic average range, with forward cover about the same as last winter
• Gasoline prices should soften this winter when demand is normally lower
• Strong crude oil prices will put a floor under gasoline prices
Laurie Falter
Energy Information Administration
Office of Oil & Gas, Petroleum Division
(202) 586-1805
http://www.eia.doe.gov/