Effective use of Data at Royds Hall High School A Specialist College for Science and Mathematics

• A Specialist Science College since September 2004.

• In November 2008 Ofsted graded the school as ‘Good with many Outstanding features’.

• 850 on roll with over half from minority ethnic heritages – the largest group being Pakistani.

• Over a third of our students speak English as an additional language with an increasing number at the early stages of fluency in speaking English.

• There is a significant number of students with learning difficulties with almost twice the national average for students with a statement of special educational need.

• We have a resourced provision catering for 25 students with speech and language difficulties.

• The school serves an area that is more disadvantaged than typical and the proportion of eligible for free school meals is above average.

• Attainment on entry is below the national average with students in Year 7 gaining CAT scores that are 1 from the bottom for Kirklees LA (in which there are 25 high schools).

• The school has gained:

–Specialist College Status for Science and Mathematics

–Healthy Schools Gold Award

–We were fast-tracked to achieve the BECTA ICT Mark

–We achieved the SSAT Inclusive Schools quality mark at the highest level in Autumn 2009

–We achieved the SSAT Advanced Consultant Schools Accreditation in Spring 2010

• We are a Leadership and Innovation Hub School for the SSAT for the Yorkshire and Humberside region.

Year11 results - trends in 5+A*-C %

46 40 47 59 72 70 82 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

05 06 07 08 09 10 11

%5+

A*-

C

Year

Year11 results - trends in 5+A*-C(incl E and M) %

25 31 36 41 45 50 54 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

05 06 07 08 09 10 11

%5+

A*-

C(i

ncl

En

g a

nd

Ma

ths)

Year

Comparing percentage 5 or more A*-C (incl Eng and Maths)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Girls Boys APKN(F) APKN(M) WBRI(F) WBRI(M) FSM

5+A*-C(EM)% 2010

5+A*-C(EM)% 2009

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Girls Boys APKN(F) APKN(M) WBRI(F) WBRI(M) FSM

English% 2010

English% 2009

Comparing percentage English A*-C

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Girls Boys APKN(F) APKN(M) WBRI(F) WBRI(M) FSM

Maths% 2010

Maths% 2009

Comparing percentage Maths A*-C

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Girls Boys APKN(F) APKN(M) WBRI(F) WBRI(M) FSM

2+Science% 2010

2+Science% 2009

Comparing Percentage 2+Science A*-C

How we use the Jesson Frameworks at Royds Hall High School.

Student Conference on Jesson Data

I wonder if I can find a

way to accurately

estimate how well a

student SHOULD do. He is trying to get a

system that is so reliable

that every school in the

Country uses it to estimate

how well their students

should do at GCSE.

Professor David Jesson from York University.

He has worked since the 1980s on school data and trying to find ways

to predict what a student should achieve at GCSE based on

their scores in their Key Stage 2 SATs at primary School

How Jesson estimates GCSE performance

The Jesson approach looks at a student’s profile of prior attainment based on how they did in their Key Stage 2 tests at age 11.

It links these scores to outcomes at GCSE. Jesson found these scores to be the very best predictor of a student’s performance at GCSE.

But it is not just based on the levels they achieved when they took their Key Stage 2 tests in English, Mathematics and Science.

Jesson found that it was much better to get the actual test score for their English, Mathematics and Science test papers.

He then turned them into point scores:

Their fine level multiplied by 6

If a student got Level 4.25 on their English test it was worth 4.25 x 6=25.5 points.

Then, in order to get the overall picture Jesson took the average scores of their three tests and turned this into their average Point Score (APS).

35.935 .835.735 .635.535.435.335.235 .135.034 .934.834.734.634.534.434.334 .234.134.033.933.833.733.633.533.433.333 .233.133 .032.932.832.732.632.532.432 .332.232.132 .031.931.831.731.631.531.431 .331.231 .131.030.930.830.730.630.530.430.330.230.130 .029.929.829 .729.629.529.429.329.229.129.028.928 .828.728.628.528.428.328.228.128.027.927 .827.727.627.527.427.327.227.127.026 .926.826.726.626.526.426.326.226.126.025 .925.825.725.625.525.425 .325.225.125.024.924.824.724.624 .524.424 .324.224.124.023.923.823.723 .623.523.423 .323.223.123.022.922.822.722 .622.522 .422.322.222.122.021.921.821 .721.621.521 .421.321.221.121.020.920.820 .720.620 .520.420.320.220 .120.019.919.819.719.619.519.419.319.219.119.018.918.818.718.618.518.418.318.218.118.017.917.817.717.617.517.417.317.217.117.016.916.816.716.616.516.416.316.216.116.015.915.815.715.615.515.415.315.215.115.0

6500

6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Pupils' Key Stage 2 Points

No

's o

f P

up

ils

National distribution of Key Stage 2 Points

for 600,000 pupils annually

12 18 24 30 36

Low Below Avge Abv High

3433323130292827262524232221201918171615

3433323130292827262524232221201918171615

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Pupils' Key Stage 2 Average Points

Ra

nkin

g o

f P

up

ils'

Ks2

Po

ints

Cumulative Key Stage 2 Points for Pupils in non-selective schools

Low Group Below Average Above High

More Able Pupils

How Jesson predicts GCSE outcomes

The Link Between KS2 and GCSE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Average KS2 Point Score

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Lik

elih

oo

d o

f G

CS

E

Ac

hie

ve

me

nt%

To make the estimates more reliable Jesson puts KS2 APS into five bands

The Link Between KS2 and GCSE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Average KS2 Point Score

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Lik

elih

oo

d o

f G

CS

E

Ac

hie

ve

me

nt%

B A N D 2

B A N D 5

B A N D 3

B A N D 4

B A N D 1

21% chance

45% chance

72% chance

89% chance

97% chance

Jesson uses this technique to estimate the chance of a Y11 student getting a particular GCSE outcome

BAND (based on KS2 APS)

Chance of

gaining

5A*-C

These are your chances of getting 5+A*-C grades at GCSE

based on the BAND you are in.

Band 5 Band 3 Band 2 Band 1 Band 4

21% 45% 72% 89% 97%

Jesson also uses this technique to estimate the chance of a Y11 student getting a particular GCSE subject.

BAND (based on KS2 APS)

Chance of

gaining

5A*-C

These are your chances of getting an A*-C grade in Mathematics at GCSE based on the BAND you are in.

Band 5 Band 3 Band 2 Band 1 Band 4

6% 23% 56% 83% 98%

How to use the Jesson Estimate table to estimate 5+A*-C% 2010

KS2 FP

Bands

Low (5) Below

Average (4)

Average (3) Above

Average (2)

High (1)

KS2 Fine

Pnts

Score

-22.49 pts 22.5-25.49pts 25.5-28.49pts 28.5-30.49

pts

30.5++

%5+A*-C

(Jesson

estimate)

21% 45% 72% 89% 97%

Student

numbers

Expected

numbers

Estimated

% 5+A*-C

Compare

target 2010 ?%

Jesson Framework for 5 or more A*-C outcome 2010

Can be used to estimate the outcome for

current Year 11 as a “baseline”.

24 40 47 25 18 Total (A)

154

6 18 34 23 18 Total (B)

99 (99/154)x100

=65%

How to use the Jesson Estimate table to estimate 5+A*-C% (incl E+M)

KS2 FP

Bands

Low (5) Below

Average (4)

Average (3) Above

Average (2)

High (1)

KS2 Fine

Pnts

Score

-22.49 pts 22.5-25.49pts 25.5-28.49pts 28.5-30.5 pts 30.5++

%5+A*-C

(Jesson

estimate)

2% 13% 43% 73% 92%

Student

numbers

Expected

numbers

Estimated

% 5+A*-C

(incl E+M)

Compare

target 2010 ?%

Can be used to estimate the outcome for

current Year 11 as a “baseline”.

Jesson Framework for 5 or more A*-C

(incl English and Maths) outcome 2010

24 40 47 25 18 Total (A)

154

1 6 21 19 17 Total (B)

64

(64/154)x100

=42%

Knowing the number of students in each Jesson Fine Points Band for a subject, we can calculate

the estimate for A*-C% in subject areas and even classes within a subject. Jesson bands exist for:

English, Mathematics Science

Art and Design

Biology, Business

Chemistry

Drama, DT Food, DT Graphics, DT Resistant Materials

English Literature

French

Geography, German

History

Music

Physics

RE Full and Short course

an many other new courses that have recently been added.

Using Jesson estimates for other subjects

Jesson Framework for subjects

of the curriculum for 2011

Many more subjects can be found on the SSAT website: Data Enabler

(a subscription service of approx £250) www.specialistschools.org.uk

Data Enabler Toolkit

Jesson estimate

Jesson framework

Choose an outcome

Setting an aspirational challenge

You can raise the level of challenge

Aspirational Jesson

estimate

Using FFTLive to select an appropriate estimate

Using FFTLive to select an appropriate estimate

Using FFTLive to select an appropriate estimate

Key Process Presenting Data

Student prior attainment distributions.

Traffic-light analyses of forecast data.

Use of Venn Diagram presentations.

Estimate/Forecast/Target system of presentation to students and staff.

Making sure that the terminology is consistent

• Estimates

• Forecasts

• Targets

SSAT View

Target setting - a methodology...?

aspirational target grade

Estimates

Knowledge Discussion

Challenge Aspirational

Target

Grade

Estimates

Challenge

Discussion

with

Student

Teacher’s

Knowledge

of Student

SSAT View

In order to achieve my target I will…

Agreed target

level/grade The level my teacher and I want

me to reach

Forecast

level/grade The level my teacher thinks I

am working at

Estimated level/

grade The lowest level I should reach

1

3

2

Phase 1/2 Target Sheet Start date

I hope to achieve this by:

This is where you write

down what you need to do

to reach the target you

have agreed with your

teacher.

Estimate, Forecast and Target system

Key meetings or events Structure of our Leader of Learning meetings.

Learning Mentor Team meetings.

Heads of Community meetings.

Weekly Tutor Team meetings.

Subject Team meetings.

The Achievement Group meetings.

Vertical Tutoring.

Academic Tutorials.

Tutor Intervention Programme.

Forecast Analysis Sheets All teachers submit forecasts each term

Teachers asked to analyse their forecasts and compare them to: Jesson Estimates

FFT Estimates

RoL Estimates

Leads to 3-waves of intervention

Ensure accountability for very useful records for Performance Management

Subject performance records

Individual performance records (eg for NQTs/UPS1/ASTs etc)

Using Data with Students

Student Conference on Jesson Data Get the conditions right!

Timing in the year important – we have tried different versions.

Have different conference cohorts with a certain range of prior attainment attending.

Be prepared for some students to be concerned about the estimate data.

Highly powerful when followed by their latest forecasts or mock results.

Key inputs at the conference

Input on data by our Attendance Officer/ESW.

Our Learning Mentor Team outline the intervention programme that is available.

Previous students share their experience.

The Careers Service present information about College/employment entry requirements.

College Principals/Employers attend.

Governors and other LA staff.

Key follow-up activities Students share their conference booklet with

parents/carers.

Tutors follow students’ progress after a Jesson Conference.

A useful basis for mentoring meetings with individual students.

We now ask students to lead an Academic Tutorial at which they take their Parents and Tutor through their conference booklet.

Students discuss their Jesson

Booklet with their Parents in an

Academic Tutorial

The response from students was fantastic!

The Aspire, Learn Achieve, Wall.

Students update their latest forecasts with their Tutors.

Opportunities to discuss progress and work out what needs to happen next!

...and to celebrate success!

Working with the Learning Mentor Team

0

20

40

60

80

100

5A*-C 2009

5A*-C (E+M) 2009

5A*-C 2010

5A*-C (E+M) 2010

97

63

98 81

Mentored students not reaching target

Mentored students reaching target (32 in 2009 and 60 in 2010)

What impact is all this having?

64%

93%

20 students who asked for help last year.

English and Maths GCSE

English or Maths GCSE

A special invitation event on Monday 7th February 2011.

Talk from Angela Williams, Principal at Huddersfield New

College about the importance of gaining the higher A*/A or

Dn*/Dn grades.

Talk from students at Huddersfield New College about how

they reached the higher grades.

Workshop in subjects to show what to do to get to the

higher grades and a chance to meet students who have

achieved this in the past.

A chance to look at resources to help you achieve the

higher grades.

A chance to talk to staff and students to get further

advice about going on to College.