Education for Development Lessons from East Asia @hpatrinosNote: Data cover the years 1960-2015. GDP...
Transcript of Education for Development Lessons from East Asia @hpatrinosNote: Data cover the years 1960-2015. GDP...
Education for DevelopmentLessons from East Asia
Harry Anthony Patrinos@hpatrinos
The Region: A Half-century of Stellar GrowthAverage economic growth between 1961 and 2015
Source: Data from World Development Indicators (World Bank, various years). Author’scalculations.
World economy
+3.5%
+7.2%
Developing East
Asia Pacificvs
each year
each year
Size of Economy at Various Growth Rates
Source: Data from World Development Indicators (World Bank, various years).
Note: Data cover the years 1960-2015. GDP = gross domestic product.
$11.1 trillion
EAP with China
Size of Economy at Various Growth Rates
$1.5 trillion
World
Source: Data from World Development Indicators (World Bank, various years).
Note: Data cover the years 1960-2015. GDP = gross domestic product.
Size of Economy at Various Growth Rates
$1.5 trillion
World
$4.8 trillion
EAP without China
Source: Data from World Development Indicators (World Bank, various years).
Note: Data cover the years 1960-2015. GDP = gross domestic product.
$11.1 trillion
EAP with China
Size of Economy at Various Growth Rates
Source: Data from World Development Indicators (World Bank, various years).
Note: Data cover the years 1960-2015. GDP = gross domestic product.
Share Working in Agriculture has Fallen
Source: Data from International Labor Organization. Author’s calculations.
Share of population in 1991
Agriculture Services Other
Share Working in Agriculture has Fallen
Share of population in 2016
Agriculture Services Other
Source: Data from International Labor Organization. Author’s calculations.
Education Grew Rapidly and Steadily since 1950
Source: Barro and Lee 2013
Average years of schooling for adults aged 25+ in EAP compared to
world average in 1950
World EAP
1.3 years
2.9 years
Education Grew Rapidly and Steadily since 1950
7.9 years 8 years
Average years of schooling for adults aged 25+ in EAP compared to
world average in 2010
World EAP
Source: Barro and Lee 2013
Every year of Schooling Raises Earnings by 9-10%
Source: Montenegro and Patrinos 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Race Between Education and Technology
Higher Education Enrollment Rate
Rate of Return to Higher Education
Source: Montenegro and Patrinos 2014
Educational Achievement
490
500
510
520
530
540
550
560
Singapore Hong Kong SARChina
Japan Macao SAR China Estonia Chinese Taipei Canada Finland Korea China
PISA 2015: Top 10 Performers (average scores in science, math reading)
PISA 2016
East Asia Has Some of the Best Education Systems in the World
Note: Composite constructed average of PISA and TIMSS performance over all available iterations. Calculations based on PISA and TIMSS scores on nine assessments since
2000 for PISA, and 2003 for TIMSS
350 400 450 500 512 550 556 600 650406
B-S-J-G (China)Macao SAR, China
Japan Taiwan, China
Korea, Rep.Hong Kong SAR, China
Vietnam
ThailandMalaysia
Indonesia
Philippines
SingaporeShanghai, China
More Learning Occurs in Above-Average Performing Systems
Source: PISA 2015 (OECD 2016)
Singapore
IndonesiaB-S-J-G (China)
Korea, Rep.
Japan
Vietnam Thailand
Malaysia
2.0
1.3
1.3
2.0
4.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
Scores Are Not Only High, They Are Also Equitable
OECD Vietnam and B-S-J-G (China)
Students in bottom 40%
of SES in Vietnam and
BSJG score = 506
Bottom TopQuintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4
Average OECD score = 493
650
450
550
Source: PISA 2015 (OECD 2016)
Get the Basics Right
Education Commission 2016
Get the Basics Right
Fundamentals:
• Basic education first
Employer-led training:
• Training at secondary & post-secondary, based on skill needs, employer-led
Engage the private sector with public
funding:
• Secondary education
• Higher education
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Peru
Vietnam
Annual Productivity of Schooling(standard deviations)
Vietnam: Effect of Year of Schooling
Abhijeet Singh
PISA 2015
Vietnam: PISA Outlier: Bucking the Income Trend
Rising Returns to Higher Education in Vietnam
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Primary Secondary Tertiary
1992 2010
There Are Rising Returns to Higher Levels of Education
Despite Increases in Supply
Source: Di Gropello and Sakellariou 2010
Wage premiums to tertiary
education
Vietnam 1992
Share of workers
with tertiary
education
There Are Rising Returns to Higher Levels of Education
Despite Increases in Supply
+94%
Vietnam 2006
Wage premiums to tertiary
education
Share of workers
with tertiary
education
+273%
Source: Di Gropello and Sakellariou 2010
Top Performing Systems have an Unshakeable Commitment to
Developing Skills for Prosperity
Source: Barro and Lee 2013
Singapore
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
Percent of population with no schooling in 1950
68%
55%
42%
35%
8%
Singapore
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
18%
5%
8%
7%
0%
Percent of population with no schooling in 2010
Top Performing Systems have an Unshakeable Commitment to
Developing Skills for Prosperity
Source: Barro and Lee 2013
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Singapore
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Hong Kong
Thailand
Hong Kong (China) and Thailand
Top Performing Systems Focus Spending on Basic Education
Source: Japan Ministry of Education
Percent of government education spending
Elementary Tertiary
2014 201620111980 20001960
IndonesiaJapan
0%
70%
35%
Source: Indonesia Ministry of Education and Culture
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Japan Belgium Germany France Australia USA Netherlands Finland
Since 1965: Japan Leads
Successful Systems Recruit and Develop Best to Be Teachers
In Japan, only 14% of applicants to education
programs are accepted; only about 30–40%
of graduates are hired annually
In Singapore, the government
recruits the top one-third of university
graduates to become teachers
In Korea, only 1 in 20 passes the exams
for employment to become a teacher
In Taiwan, China typically only the top third of
applications are accepted into education
programs which are highly competitive
Top Performers Use More Elaboration, Less Memorization
Source: OECD 2016
Teaching and learning strategies in mathematics around the world
More
memorization
More
elaboration
More student-oriented
instructionMore teacher-directed
instruction
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Taiwan, China
Korea Shanghai, ChinaVietnam
Hong Kong, SAR
United Kingdom
United StatesFinland
Macau, SAR
OECD average
Data from Assessments have Spurred National ReformsEGRA zero-word readers, 2nd grade
Source: Graham and Kelly 2017
Indonesia
Tonga
Myanmar – Yangon
Cambodia
Vanuatu
Timor-Leste
Philippines - Cebuano
0% 60%30%
Data from Assessments have Spurred National ReformsEGRA zero-word readers, 2nd grade
2010
Cambodia
0% 60%30%
48%
Source: Graham and Kelly 2017
Data from Assessments have Spurred National ReformsEGRA zero-word readers, 2nd grade
2012
Cambodia
0% 60%30%
33%
Source: Graham and Kelly 2017
• Pregnancy
• Birth
• Family support
• Child health &
development
• Preschool
Ensure that Children are Ready to Learn in School
Actions across Policy Domains Drive Learning
Aligninstitutions to ensurebasic
conditions for learning
Ensurethat children are ready
to learn in school
Assessstudents to diagnose issues
and inform instruction
Concentrateeffective, equity-minded
public spending on basic education
Select and supportteachers throughout their careers
to allow them to focusonthe classroom
Align institutions to ensure basic conditions for learning
1
Concentrate effective, equity-minded public spending on basic
2
Select & support teachers to allow them to focus on classroom
3
Ensure that Children are Ready
to Learn in School4
Assess students to inform instruction
5
Thank you!
Harry Patrinos@hpatrinos