Economics of EbolaTom Carlson

Ebola Abroad

• Even with a lot of outstanding concerns about the Ebola epidemic, around the globe the noise has silenced a little as people are recovering and preparations are made to combat and quarantine it

• On of the main reasons for the muted coverage is also related to the countries most affected by the disease; Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone

• These countries are quite small in economic terms and account for about 2% of the gross domestic product of Sub-Saharan Africa

Ebola Abroad Pt. II

• On the other hand the regional economic effects of Ebola could be much more serious if the outbreak were to spread to Ivory Coast and Ghana

• Concerns are rising as the price of cocoa is increasing in both countries and has even climbed 23% this year even as the price of other commodities has fallen

• Ghana is also a lead producer of oil and precious minerals

Ebola and Stocks• The World Health Organization has also been alerted that Ebola may have made

its way into:

• Benin

• Cameroon

• Central African Republic

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

• Gambia

• Mauritania

• Nigeria

• Togo

Ebola and Stocks Pt: II

• At the current moment, investors are remaining calm about the potential financial risks caused by Ebola in all these nations

• So far there is not enough of a panic to affect stocks

• There will continue to be a large amount of monitoring to ensure there is not a crash or a problem within the markets

White House to Influence NY/NJ Quarantine Policy

• Ghana currently has a population of more than 25 million and shares a border with Ivory Coast

• It is also where the U.N. has decided to base its mission to respond to the Ebola epidemic

• The U.S. has provided Ghana’s government with $1.7 million to prepare and respond to the Ebola outbreak.

• Economists will continue to monitor the terror and fear the outbreak has caused

• The International Monetary Fund recently reduced its forecast for growth in Sub-Saharan Africa because of Ebola, which has hurt tourism and exports

Containing Ebola

• In New York and New Jersey the governors enforced mandatory quarantines for health care workers that were returning from the Ebola zone over the weekend

• A move that was highly criticized. Many believe the decision to quarantine the workers was not medically reasonable or necessary

• To date there has only been one U.S. death

Containing Ebola

• Julian Jessop, Chief Global Economist at Capital Economics says:

• “Locking people up even when they have tested negative looks like an overreaction and may prove counterproductive." "It's a fine balance to strike --

a slow response might mean playing catch-up later and missing the chance to nip the disease in the bud, but being too aggressive might fuel panic

and prevent people who might need treatment from coming forward."