ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

AGC MAINE ANNUAL MEETINGJANUARY 22, 2020

ANGELA HALLOWELL

ECONOMIC ANALYST

DEPT. OF ADMINISTRATIVE AND FINANCIAL

SERVICES

MAINE: A DEMOGRAPHIC SNAPSHOT

2019 Population Estimate: 1,344,212

42nd largest in US

2010 – 2019 Population Change: +1.2%

40th in US (ahead of MI, NJ, PA, RI, NY, MS, CT, VT, IL, WV)

2018 Median age: 44.9 years

Oldest in US

94.3% White, Non-Hispanic

Highest percentage in US

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; State Economist population projections

2019 estimate: 1,344,212

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036

Total Population, Maine

Baby Boomers in 2016

(52-70)

Baby Boomers in 2026

(62-80)

Sources: State Economist population projections (Maine) and U.S. Census Bureau population projections (U.S.)

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Percent Change in Population by Age, 2016-2026

Maine U.S.

Source: Maine Department of Labor, Employment Outlook to 2026; https://cwri1.blogspot.com/2018/07/employment-

outlookto-2026.html

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program

POPULATION CHANGE THROUGH THE DECADE

+809+648 -199

+1387-928

+2026

+5675

+3341

+5155

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Domestic Migration

International Migration

Deaths

Births

Total Change

Components of Population Change in the last Decade, Maine

WHERE ARE PEOPLE MOVING TO/FROM?

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates

Moved to Maine from: Moved from Maine to:

Massachusetts 5,775 New Hampshire 4,016

New Hampshire 4,731 Massachusetts 3,188

New York 2,909 Florida 2,783

Texas 2,386 Connecticut 1,342

Florida 2,082 California 1,294

Connecticut 1,734 North Carolina 1,235

Pennsylvania 1,393 Maryland 990

Michigan 1,320 Pennsylvania 916

North Carolina 1,049 Colorado 912

Vermont 997 Texas 815

2018 State-to-State Migration Patterns

WHO ARE THE PEOPLE MOVING TO MAINE?

Age:

▪ 18-19: net gain of 864 (annual migration rate 2.7%)

▪ 30-34, 40-44: +1,115/1,056 (1.4%)

▪ 1-4: +1,005 (2%)

Educational attainment:

▪ Bachelor’s Degree: net gain of 2,152

▪ Graduate or Professional Degree: +2,308

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates

618.0 617.5

596.7

593.4594.9

598.5

602.1

605.6

611.2

618.5

624.0

628.7

633.8

636.2 636.2 636.2 636.2

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Total Nonfarm Employment (in thousands)

History and CEFC forecast

Sources: Maine Department of Labor and Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission report, November 1, 2019

New record high

(2018)

Pre-recession peak

(2007)

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; CEFC report, Nov. 1, 2019

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Percent Change in Real Personal Income, Maine

Personal income (millions of

dollars)

Wages and salaries (millions of

dollars)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

Agriculture,

forestry, fishing

and hunting

Construction Manufacturing Trade Transportation

and warehousing

Information Finance,

insurance, real

estate, rental, and

leasing

Professional and

business services

Educational

services, health

care, and social

assistance

Arts,

entertainment,

recreation,

accommodation,

and food services

Government and

government

enterprises

Maine Real GDP by Industry, 1997-2018 (in millions of chained 2012 dollars)

Sources: Moody’s Analytics and IHS, January 2020

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Do

lla

rs P

er

Barr

el

Petroleum Crude Oil Price: Brent

Historical prices Moody's forecast

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

October November December January February March

Pri

ce p

er

gallo

nMaine No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price

Winter 2015-2016 Winter 2016-2017 Winter 2017-2018

Winter 2018-2019 Winter 2019-2020

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Jan 06, 2020, $2.65

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

Jan-1

0

Apr-

10

Jul-10

Oct

-10

Jan-1

1

Apr-

11

Jul-11

Oct

-11

Jan-1

2

Apr-

12

Jul-12

Oct

-12

Jan-1

3

Apr-

13

Jul-13

Oct

-13

Jan-1

4

Apr-

14

Jul-14

Oct

-14

Jan-1

5

Apr-

15

Jul-15

Oct

-15

Jan-1

6

Apr-

16

Jul-16

Oct

-16

Jan-1

7

Apr-

17

Jul-17

Oct

-17

Jan-1

8

Apr-

18

Jul-18

Oct

-18

Jan-1

9

Apr-

19

Jul-19

Oct

-19

Jan-2

0

Weekly New England Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per

Gallon)

Sources: University of Michigan; National Federation of Independent Businesses

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Consumer Sentiment and Small Business Optimism Indexes

Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment (1966=100) NFIB Small Business Optimism (1986=100)

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Maine’s demographics are a limiting factor for employment

and economic growth, but there have been some positive

signs lately

The economy will see steady but slower growth in 2020,

though we are likely closer to the next recession than the

last one

KEEP AN EYE ON…

Election year may lead to policy uncertainty for businesses

Census 2020

March 12-20 Households will begin to receive invitations to respond via phone, mail,

and online

The Census Bureau is hiring!

CONTACT INFORMATION

Angela HallowellEconomic Analyst

Dept. of Administrative and Financial Services

Angela.Hallowell@maine.gov

(207) 624-7348