Economic Outlook 2014Depreciation of rupiah and decline in the composite share price index has caused panic in the business community. Enterprises dealing in tofu-soybean cake, electronic goods and a number of enterprises that produce products that have high import content are screaming about the rising cost of the US dollar. Is it just external factors or fragile Indonesian economic fundamentals that make the country susceptible to external shocks?Figure 24: Development in Exchange rate and composite share price index during SBY regime

The main factor responsible for the decline in the composite share price index and depreciation of Rupiah Exchange rate is the structure of Indonesian economy that is not healthy, but is not give non- generic medicine that would treat its illness. Unless there is fundamental change in macro and sectoral policies, the threat which has become evident in capital market and foreign currency, sooner or later, will find its way to all sectors of the economy, including traditional markets and Micro , small and medium size enterprises. During January 1-August 23, 2013, the exchange rate of Rupiah depreciated by 12% against US dollar, while the composite share price index declined by 4.1%. On August 23, 2013, the exchange rate hovered around IDR 10 848 / USD and composite share price index was at 4169.83 (see Figure 24). In fact on November 28, 2013, exchange rate of Rupiah plunged to IDR 11 870-11 990 /USD, which is a depreciation of about 24% in just a year. This is a stark contrast to the performance of Rupiah at the beginning of the year, 2013, which was IDR 9 685, while the composite share price index was 4 346.48.External FactorsAs regards the external front, several factors are responsible for high vulnerability of Indonesian foreign currency and capital markets. The depreciation of Rupiah is attributable to negative sentiments that are related to rising uncertainty in the global economy as a result of lower economic growth projections. Since January 2012, Rupiah has suffered continual depreciation from IDR 9,000 in early January 2012 to above IDR 11,000 /USD in last week of August 2013. Indonesian Rupiah and Indian Rupee posted the deepest depreciation during the past two weeks, which has been sparked off the decision of many investors to withdraw their funds from Asia in anticipation of the plan by US Federal Reserve to decrease quantitative easing (QE) policy.QE is a monetary policy which is implemented by US Federal reserve to stimulate the economy because conventional monetary policies are in effective during very low interest rate regime that is close to zero. The policy works in such a way that The Fed buys financial assets (long term obligations and US Treasury Notes) in commercial banks or other financial institutions. The Fed conducted QE policy the first time in (QE1) on November 25, 2008 until March 2010, initially involving USD 600 billion, but to date has reached USD 1.75 trillion. During the second phase (QE2), The Fed bought USD 600 billion during November 2010-June 2011. On September 12 2012, The Fed announced that it would buy long term securities to the tune of USD 40 billion per month.Fluctuation that have affected Indonesian capital market (BEI), are to a large extent attributable to US QE program. This is because the policy induced investors to buy risky assets in developing countries, including Indonesia. After implementing QE1, QE2, and QE3, a bullish trend occurred in Dow Jones Index and composite share price index (see Figure 25). Nonetheless, if the level of QE is reduced, the implication will be that the reduction in the value of assets the Fed purchases will in turn reduce liquidity in US markets. It is such fears which have triggered deterioration in the performance of capital market indices in developing countries , including Indonesia, causing bearish trend in response to the withdraw of funds by foreign investors. Based on data released by Indonesian Capital market Custodian, foreign ownership of shares on the BEI in quarter II-2013 was within 57-58% range of total shares traded on Indonesian stock exchange.Figure 25: Movement of IDR/USD exchange rate, CPI, and Dow Jones Index

Source: Ministry of Finance (2013); BI (2013)A chronic diseaseInternal factors have induced a deterioration of the deficit on the balance of trade and current account continues to this day (see Table 10). This is what I refer to as the chronic disease that has maligned our economy .Based on BPS statistics released on August 1, 2013, Indonesian exports in June 2013 reached USD 14.74 billion, which represents a decrease of 8.63% from the level recorded in May 2013, and a 4.54% decline from the level registered in June 2012. Oil and gas exports posted a decline of 5.81% (from USD 2926.3 million to USD 2756.3 million), while non-oil and gas exports plummeted by 9.26% (from USD 13 207.1 million to USD 11 984.4 million). Despite an increase in prices of Indonesian crude oil on the international market from USD 99.01 to USD 99.97 per barrel during May-June 2013 period, the volume of oil and gas exports in June 2013 compared with the level in May 2013 for crude oil and oil and gas products decreased by 21.6% and 4.2%, and gas increased by 4.2%. In cumulative terms, Indonesian exports during January-June 2013 was USD 91.05 billion, which is decrease of 6% compared with the same period in 2012.

Table 10: Balance of Payments, 2011-2013.Q3

Source: Bank Indonesia (2013)Over the last few years, the performance of nearly all products and sectors weakened leading to the deterioration in the balance of trade which initially was in surplus into a deficit. If at the beginning the deficit in trade was limited to trade in oil and gas sector, with effect from quarter II-2013, non-oil and gas trade also posted a deficit of USD 0.6 Billion As a result of plummeting non-oil and gas exports which was compounded by a deficit in oil and gas trade that remains unabated. The deficit is the first over the last three decades. The main factors attributable among others include the decline in crude oil lifting, which has meant that to this date; Indonesian is still a net importer of petroleum oil, and the investment climate in the oil and gas sector, which does not favour exploration of new oil and gas reserves. The decline in non-oil and gas exports is direct consequence of the collapse of many companies because of the global financial crisis and failure to compete with other companies exporting the same product. Besides, prices and demand for commodity exports on the international markets continue to show a down ward trend due to weakening performance of economies that constitute major destinations of Indonesian exports. Nonetheless, the fundamental problems lie in the decline in the performance of trade and weakening competitiveness of Indonesian exports. To that end, the government has a lot of homework to deal with issues that relate to export chain and a number of factors that have contributed to high cost economy. Some of the problems that remain unresolved include, among others: first, high cost of handling containers in ports in ASEAN. This is coupled with parking and pass through charges imposed on containers, which still constitute a burden. Secondly, illegal dues which constitute at least 7.5% of import costs are still prevalent in weighing bridges, high ways, ports and operational permits, both in the central government and local governments. Thirdly, high content of imported raw materials, intermediate products, and components in all industries, hovering about 28-90%. Other problems that remain obstacles for the industrial sector include mastering and application of technology which largely limited to adding sewing and assembling type services to products. Yet non industrial exports contribute 62% of oil and gas exports.Reading World Bank Report entitled Doing Business 2014 (DB2014), I noted that Indonesia is ranked 120 out of 189 countries. This constitutes a drop of 4 positions from the rank of 116th in the previous edition. To that end, for policy makers, DB2014 presents a countrys performance on ease of doing business compared to other nations. Compared with neighbouring countries in ASEAN, Indonesias ranking is the lowest. Malaysia has implemented many policy reforms, measures that have catapulted the country to rank No.6, followed by Thailand and the Philippines, which occupied rank 18 and 108, respectively. DB2014 notes that key indicators that still cause for concern to start a business in Indonesia include, implementing a contract, resolving insolvency, paying taxes, and getting access to electricity. Staring business in Indonesia requires 10 procedures, takes 48 days, coats 20.5% of income per capita, and minimum capital of 38.5% of income per capita.Other internal factors that need attention include the large percentage of private sector foreign debt which will soon reach maturity in September 2013. The total cumulative debt which is soon to fall due is estimated to hover around USD 25.6 Billion. To date, total Indonesian foreign debt (government, BI, and private sector), is USD 250 Billion. The problem lies in the fact Indonesian foreign debt is dominated by private sector debt to the tune of USD 133 Billion. To that end, continuing depreciation of Rupiah has the potential to increase the likelihood of default on foreign currency denominated debt. This is the more so, as 20-22% of private sector foreign debt (USD 26.8 Billion USD 29.5 Billion) is not hedged. Current account deficit has increased significantly. The current account, does not only record transactions of goods, but also trade in services, revenues, and current transfer. The deficit on the current account is largely as a result of plummeting exports ; which in turn is attributable to the weakening global economy, drastic decline of global commodity prices , amidst still high imports, both oil and gas and non-oil and gas. Moreover, payment of interest of debt is also a factor that contributed to the large deficit posted on the current account in quarter II-2013.The ratio of the deficit on the current account to GDP rose above 3%, which adversely impacted on the level of international reserves that plummeted to USD 92.67 Billion or equivalent to 5.1 months of imports in July 2013. If the level of international reserves in August 2013 is compared with the position in late 2006, an upward trend is discernible from USD 34.7 Billion (2006) , gradually rose to USD 55.1 Billion On December 7, 2007, and drastic surged during 2011-2012 period to about USD 110-113 Billion. Based on excerpts from the balance of payments report BI released in August 2013 edition, issues warning to the effect that Indonesia faces the problem of a drop in the level of international reserves to pay short term debt obligations.There is need forCespleng medicineThe government and BI responded to the growing crisis by issuing policy package to salvage and protect the economy from falling into the mire. The packages included fiscal, monetary, capital market and industry policies and covered 13 steps (Kompas, 23/8). BI issued a number of monetary packages that are aimed at increasing the supply of foreign exchange and deepening the money market. Nonetheless, it seems there is need for a miraculous medicine with the potency of healing Indonesian from its chronic illness. There need for finding the root cause responsible for depreciation of Rupiah and decline in the composite share price index. External factors are just triggers, which underscores the need for prioritizing the search for the source of the chronic illness that time and again has led to the weakening of the economy. Without QE in US, weak performance of the Indonesian trade balance and current account would induce depreciation of Rupiah. It is just a matter of time.Compared the 1998 Asian crisis and the 2008 global crisis, the depreciation of Rupiah exchange rate and composite share price index during August-November 2013 period has not reached crisis level hence there is yet no need to apply crisis related protocol. Article 45, Law No.21/ 2011 on the Financial Services Authority, defines a crisis in the financial system as a condition whereby the financial system has failed to conduct its functions and roles in the economy in an effective manner which is reflected in the deterioration of various economic and financial indicators, which include liquidity problems, solvency problems, and or drop in public confidence in the financial system.The implications of that are that the central government and local governments have a lot of home work at hand which need prioritizing. The business community and then general public is waiting for the government to implement anticipative and proactive policies both for the short term and long term. We perhaps need non generic medicine that has the potency to treat the chronic disease that has inflected Indonesian economy for many years. Time for impression and personality building is long gone. Thus, as the country enters the year of politics, there is need for prioritizing change in policy orientation, policy response, and making serious efforts to improve policy implementation. Hopefully, expectations of the general public, investors, and the business community are not met by empty promises that bear semblance to winds of paradise that blow with gusto as the country approaches the general elections and local government election, but truly become a reality.

DAFTAR PUSTAKA

Badan Perencanaan Statistik (BPS). (2012).Data Strategis BPS. Jakarta: BPS.BPS. (2011). Laporan Bulanan Data Sosial Ekonomi. Jakarta: BPS, 11 April 2011.Bank Indonesia. (2013). Indonesias Balance of Payments Report second Quarter 2013, Jakarta: BI.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2013a).Mengobati Penyakit Ekonomi. Kompas, 3 September 2013.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2013b).Doing Business 2014, Investor Daily,11 November 2013.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2012a). Perencanaan Daerah: Bagaimana Membangun Ekonomi Lokal, Kota, dan Kawasan, Jakarta: Salemba Empat.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2012b). Ekonomika Aglomerasi. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2011a).Koridor Ekonomi Indonesia. Investor Daily, 28 Februari 2011.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2011b).MP3EI: Mitos atau Realitas, Kompas, 1/8/2011.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2009).Debottlenecking Infrastruktur. Investor Daily, 16 November 2009.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2009). Ekonomika Indonesia: Dinamika Lingkungan Bisnis di Tengah Krisis Global. Yogyakarta: STIM YKPN.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2007). Ekonomika Industri Indonesia: Menuju Negara Industri Baru 2030?. Yogyakarta: ANDI Offset.ONeil, Jim. (2011). The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond, Penguin Books Ltd, London.World Bank. (2013).Doing Business 2014: Indonesia, Washington DC: WB.

Oleh kelompok NamaNIMAhmad YassinE1A213031

Economic Outlook 2014Oleh: Prof. Mudrajad Kuncoro, Ph.D1Melemahnya nilai tukar rupiah dan merosotnya Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan membuat panik pelaku bisnis. Pengusaha tahu-tempe, barang elektronik, dan sejumlah usaha yang memiliki kandungan impor tinggi mulai berteriak karena dollar tinggi. Benarkah faktor eksternal semata ataukah fundamen ekonomi Indonesia yang rapuh sehingga rawan terhadap guncangan eksternal? Gambar 24 : Perkembangan Kurs dan IHSG pada masa SBY

Penyebab utama anjloknya IHSG dan terpuruknya nilai tukar rupiah sebetulnya adalah struktur ekonomi kita yang sejak lama tidak sehat, tetapi diberi obat yang tak cespleng. Tanpa perubahan mendasar kebijakan makro dan sektoral, ancaman krisis di pasar modal dan valas, cepat atau lambat akan merembet ke semua sektor, termasuk pasar tradisional dan UMKM. Selama kurun 1 Januari-23 Agustus 2013, nilai tukar rupiah melemah sekitar 12 persen terhadap dollar AS dan IHSG melorot sekitar 4,1 persen. Pada 23 Agustus 2013, kurs rupiah bertengger di angka IDR 10.848 per USD dan IHSG pada 4.169,83 (lihat Gambar 24). Bahkan pada tanggal 28 November 2013, kurs rupiah merosot hingga IDR 11.870-11.990 per USD, atau mengalami depresiasi sekitar 24% dalam satu tahun. Bandingkan dengan awal 2013, saat kurs IDR 9.685 dan IHSG 4.346,48. Faktor EksternalDari sisi eksternal, ada beberapa faktor di balik rentannya pasar valas dan modal kita. Pelemahan rupiah dipengaruhi sentimen negatif terkait dengan meningkatnya ketidakpastian global akibat pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia cenderung turun. Sejak Januari 2012, rupiah terdepresiasi terus-menerus, dari IDR 9.000-an awal Januari 2012 menembus di atas IDR 11.000 per USD minggu terakhir Agustus 2013. Rupiah dan rupee India melemah paling tajam dua minggu terakhir akibat banyak investor asing menarik investasi mereka di Asia seiring dengan rencana bank sentral AS (The Fed) mengurangi kebijakan quantitative easing (QE).QE adalah kebijakan moneter yang diterapkan The Fed untuk mendorong perekonomian karena kebijakan moneter yang standar menjadi tak efektif dan suku bunga sudah amat rendah mendekati nol. Caranya, The Fed membeli sejumlah aset finansial (obligasi jangka panjang dan US Treasury Notes) di bank komersial ataupun lembaga keuangan lain. The Fed melakukan QE yang pertama (QE1) pada 25 November 2008 hingga akhir Maret 2010, tadinya hanya 600 miliar dollar AS, tetapi akhirnya mencapai USD 1,75 triliun. Pada tahap kedua (QE2), The Fed membeli USD 600 miliar selama November 2010-Juni 2011. Pada 12 September 2012, The Fed mengumumkan akan membeli surat berharga jangka panjang USD 40 miliar per bulan.Gejolak di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), banyak terpengaruh program QE AS, telah mendorong investor membeli aset-aset berisiko, terutama yang dimiliki negara berkembang, termasuk Indonesia. Setelah QE1, QE2, dan QE3 diberlakukan, terjadi tren yang sangat bullish pada indeks Dow Jones dan IHSG (lihat Gambar 25). Namun, sebaliknya apabila QE dikurangi, likuiditas di pasar AS menurun seiring dengan dikuranginya pembelian aset. Hal ini membawa performa indeks saham negara-negara berkembang, termasuk Indonesia, memasuki tren bearish seiring keluarnya dana asing. Berdasarkan data Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia, kepemilikan saham asing per kuartal II-2013 adalah 57-58%dari total saham yang diperdagangkan di BEI.

Gambar 25 : Pergerakan Nilai Kurs IDR/USD, IHK, dan Indeks Dow Jones

Sumber: Kemenkeu (2013); BI (2013) Penyakit KronisFaktor internal yang memperburuk adalah defisit neraca perdagangan dan transaksi berjalan yang masih berlanjut (lihat Tabel 7). Inilah penyakit kronis yang menggerogoti ekonomi kita dan membuat tak sehat. Statistik BPS 1 Agustus 2013 mencatat nilai ekspor Indonesia Juni 2013 mencapai USD 14,74 miliar, turun 8,63% dibandingkan dengan Mei 2013, atau penurunan 4,54% dibandingkan dengan Juni 2012. Ekspor migas turun 5,81% (dari USD 2.926,3 juta menjadi USD 2.756,3 juta), sedangkan ekspor nonmigas merosot 9,26%(dari USD 13.207,1 juta menjadi USD 11.984,4 juta). Meski harga minyak mentah Indonesia di pasar dunia naik dari USD 99,01 menjadi USD 99,97 per barrel selama Mei-Juni 2013, volume ekspor migas Juni 2013 dibandingkan dengan Mei 2013 untuk minyak mentah dan hasil minyak turun 21,6%dan 4,2%, gas naik 4,2%. Secara kumulatif, ekspor Indonesia Januari-Juni 2013 sebesar USD 91,05 miliar, turun 6%dibandingkan dengan periode sama pada 2012.

Tabel 10: Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia, 2011-2013.Q3

Sumber: Bank Indonesia (2013)

Selama beberapa tahun terakhir, hampir semua produk dan sektor Indonesia mengalami penurunan kinerja dari surplus menjadi defisit perdagangan. Jika tadinya defisit perdagangan hanya dialami sektor migas, mulai triwulan II-2013 neraca perdagangan defisit USD 0,6 miliar akibat penurunan kinerja ekspor nonmigas dan neraca perdagangan migas terus defisit. Defisit ini pertama kali terjadi selama tiga dasawarsa terakhir. Penyebabnya adalah menurunnya lifting minyak, hingga kini kita importir neto minyak, dan iklim investasi sektor migas yang kurang mendorong eksplorasi ladang minyak baru. Menurunnya ekspor nonmigas disebabkan banyaknya perusahaan yang menutup usaha akibat krisis global ataupun kalah bersaing dengan negara-negara pengekspor produk sama. Selain itu, harga dan permintaan komoditas ekspor di pasar internasional masih cenderung menurun akibat pelambatan ekonomi di negara mitra dagang utama kita.Masalah mendasar perdagangan kita adalah menurunnya kinerja perdagangan dan lemahnya daya saing produk ekspor. Pemerintah perlu menyelesaikan sejumlah pekerjaan rumah terkait dengan rantai ekspor dan sejumlah faktor penyebab ekonomi biaya tinggi. Setidaknya masalah yang masih belum dipecahkan dengan tuntas adalah; pertama, biaya mengurus kontainer di pelabuhan masih tertinggi di ASEAN. Ini masih ditambah biaya parkir dan lewat kontainer yang memberatkan. Kedua, biaya pungutan liar yang minimal 7,5%dari biaya ekspor masih ditemui di jembatan timbang, jalan raya, pelabuhan, dan pelayanan perizinan, baik di pusat maupun daerah. Ketiga, masih sangat tingginya kandungan impor bahan baku, bahan antara, dan komponen seluruh industri, sebesar 28-90%. Masalah industri lainnya mencakup lemahnya penguasaan dan penerapan teknologi karena industri masih banyak bertipe tukang jahit dan tukang rakit. Padahal kontribusi ekspor produk industri terhadap ekspor nonmigas 62%.Membaca laporan Bank Dunia yang berjudul Doing Business 2014 (DB2014), Indonesia menempati peringkat 120 dari 189 negara. Ini menurun 4 tingkat dibanding tahun sebelumnya yang menempati peringkat ke-116. Bagi para pengambil keputusan, DB2014 menyajikan bagaimana kemudahan berbisnis di suatu negara dibanding negara lain. Dibanding negara tetangga kita di ASEAN, peringkat Indonesia menempati posisi paling bawah. Malaysia melakukan banyak reformasi kebijakan hingga menempati peringkat ke-6, diikuti Thailand dan Filipina yang masing-masing berada peringkat 18 dan 108. DB2014 mencatat indikator yang masih buruk terutama adalah memulai bisnis, melaksanakan kontrak, mengatasi insolvensi, membayar pajak, dan mendapatkan listrik. Memulai bisnis di Indonesia masih membutuhkan 10 prosedur, memakan waktu 48 hari, memakan biaya hingga 20,5% dari pendapatan per kapita, dan memerlukan modal minimal yang dibayar 38,5% dari pendapatan per kapita.Faktor internal lain yang perlu dicermati adalah utang swasta yang sebagian besar akan jatuh tempo September 2013. Jumlah kumulatif utang yang jatuh tempo sekitar USD 25,6 miliar. Saat ini total utang luar negeri Indonesia (pemerintah, BI, swasta), telah mencapai 250 miliar dollar AS. Masalahnya, total utang luar negeri ini didominasi swasta yang berjumlah USD 133 miliar. Melorotnya nilai tukar rupiah berpotensi menyulut utang macet dalam bentuk valas. Apalagi 20-22%utang luar negeri swasta nasional, atau USD 26,8 miliar USD 29,5 miliar, belum memiliki lindung nilai (hedging). Defisit transaksi berjalan tercatat meningkat relatif tinggi. Neraca transaksi berjalan, atau sering disebut current account, mencatat bukan hanya neraca perdagangan barang, melainkan juga neraca jasa, penghasilan, serta transfer berjalan. Defisit terjadi karena didorong terus menurunnya ekspor akibat pelambatan ekonomi global, penurunan tajam harga komoditas global, di tengah masih tingginya impor, baik migas maupun nonmigas. Defisit transaksi berjalan juga dipengaruhi pembayaran bunga utang yang cukup besar pada triwulan II-2013.Rasio defisit transaksi berjalan terhadap PDB melonjak di atas 3%. Ini menurunkan cadangan devisa, yang akhir Juli 2013 tercatat USD 92,67 miliar atau setara 5,1 bulan impor. Bandingkan dengan posisi cadangan devisa pada akhir tahun 2006 yang hanya sebesar USD 34,7 milyar, merayap naik menjadi USD 55,1 miliar pada 7 Desember 2007, dan melonjak selama 2011-2012 menjadi sekitar USD 110-113 milyar. Laporan Neraca Pembayaran BI edisi Agustus 2013 memberikan peringatan bahwa tingkat kecukupan cadangan devisa untuk memenuhi kewajiban luar negeri jangka pendek menurun. Butuh Obat CesplengPemerintah dan BI merespons dengan menyampaikan paket kebijakan penyelamatan ekonomi, meliputi paket kebijakan fiskal, moneter, pasar modal, hingga industri, yang mencakup 13 langkah (Kompas, 23/8). BI menerbitkan sejumlah kebijakan moneter guna meningkatkan pasokan valas secara lebih efektif dan dalam rangka pendalaman pasar uang. Agaknya masih perlu obat yang mampu menyembuhkan Indonesia dari penyakit kronis. Melemahnya rupiah dan IHSG perlu dicari akar masalahnya. Faktor eksternal hanya pemicu, tetapi sumber penyakit kronis yang membikin struktur ekonomi tak sehat perlu diprioritaskan dan dipilih obatnya. Tanpa ada QE di AS pun, neraca perdagangan dan transaksi berjalan yang tak sehat mengakibatkan pelemahan rupiah, hanya tunggu waktu.Dibandingkan dengan krisis Asia 1998 dan krisis global 2008, penurunan kurs dan IHSG selama Agustus-November 2013 belum masuk tahap krisis sehingga belum bisa diterapkan protokol krisis. Menurut UU Nomor 21 Tahun 2011 tentang Otoritas Jasa Keuangan Pasal 45, definisi krisis pada sistem keuangan adalah kondisi sistem keuangan yang sudah gagal menjalankan fungsi dan perannya secara efektif dalam perekonomian nasional yang ditunjukkan dengan memburuknya berbagai indikator ekonomi dan keuangan antara lain berupa kesulitan likuiditas, masalah solvabilitas, dan/atau penurunan kepercayaan publik terhadap sistem keuangan.Implikasinya, masih banyak pekerjaan rumah bagi pemerintah pusat dan daerah yang harus diprioritaskan. langkah antisipatif dan proaktif bernuansa jangka pendek dan panjang agaknya amat ditunggu pelaku bisnis dan rakyat. Kita perlu obat yang tak generik, tetapi mengobati penyakit kronis yang beberapa tahun menggerogoti ekonomi Indonesia. Sudah saatnya berhenti menebar pesona dan hanya peduli politik pencitraan. Meski kita masuk dalam tahun politik, perubahan orientasi kebijakan, bagaimana respon kebijakan, dan upaya serius memperbaiki implementasi kebijakan perlu diprioritaskan. Semoga harapan perubahan yang diinginkan rakyat, investor, dan pengusaha tidak hanya sekedar angin surga yang bertiup kencang menjelang pemilu dan pilkada. DAFTAR PUSTAKABadan Perencanaan Statistik (BPS). (2012).Data Strategis BPS. Jakarta: BPS.BPS. (2011). Laporan Bulanan Data Sosial Ekonomi. Jakarta: BPS, 11 April 2011.Bank Indonesia. (2013). Indonesias Balance of Payments Report second Quarter 2013, Jakarta: BI.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2013a).Mengobati Penyakit Ekonomi. Kompas, 3 September 2013.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2013b).Doing Business 2014, Investor Daily,11 November 2013.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2012a). Perencanaan Daerah: Bagaimana Membangun Ekonomi Lokal, Kota, dan Kawasan, Jakarta: Salemba Empat. Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2012b). Ekonomika Aglomerasi. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2011a).Koridor Ekonomi Indonesia. Investor Daily, 28 Februari 2011.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2011b).MP3EI: Mitos atau Realitas, Kompas, 1/8/2011.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2009).Debottlenecking Infrastruktur. Investor Daily, 16 November 2009.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2009). Ekonomika Indonesia: Dinamika Lingkungan Bisnis di Tengah Krisis Global. Yogyakarta: STIM YKPN.Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2007). Ekonomika Industri Indonesia: Menuju Negara Industri Baru 2030?. Yogyakarta: ANDI Offset.ONeil, Jim. (2011). The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond, Penguin Books Ltd, London.World Bank. (2013).Doing Business 2014: Indonesia, Washington DC: WB. 1. Guru Besar Ilmu Ekonomi dan Manajer Kantor Publikasi FEB UGM