Economic Information Sharing Mechanism of the Asia-Pacific （EiSMAP)

Projection of Environmental Risks in Projection of Environmental Risks in AsiaAsia--Pacific RegionPacific Region

October, 25October, 25thth 20072007

Yuzuru MatsuokaYuzuru MatsuokaGraduate School of EngineeringGraduate School of Engineering

Kyoto UniversityKyoto University

1.1. Impacts of Climate ChangeImpacts of Climate Change2.2. Projection of environmental risks Projection of environmental risks 3.3. Final remarksFinal remarks

Model family of Asia Pacific Integrated Models (AIM)Model family of Asia Pacific Integrated Models (AIM)

AIM/CountryIntegrated national

scale model for Environmental policy

AIM/LocalLinkage model

between regional emission and

economic activity

AIM/ClimateAtmospheric model

UD Ocean modelRadiative forcing modelGCM,RegCM interface

AIM/EnduseDetailed bottom-up type

energy service and energyconsumption model

AIM/EnergyGlobal multi-regional energy

supply model

AIM/MaterialMaterial balanced

Economic CGE model

AIM/Emission

AIM/CGEGlobal multi-regional CGE and process-based hybrid

model

Global Model

AIM/DatabaseAIM Family

AIM/Impact AIM/Land AIM/Air AIM/Water AIM/Agriculture AIM/Vegetation AIM/Health Etc.

AIM/EconometricsWorld Econometric model

for middle-term projection

AIM/LinkageAIM/Bottom-upAIM/Energy-EconomicsAIM/Land-Equilibrium

Other modeling activity

GCMsDGVMs

IPCC

GEO

MA

EMF

IEA

Other projects

Inter-governmental

Panel of Climate Change

Global Environmental

Outlook

Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment

Energy Modeling

Forum

International Energy Agency

1. Scenario analysis of GHGs emission, Climate Change, and its Impacts2. Scenario analysis of environment change caused by anthropogenic intervention3. Identify feasible and efficient counter-measures for environment protection

Four Scenarios to explore Future environmental risk(adopted in Global Environmental Outlook 3)

1990 2020 2050Population in Million 2798 4008 4696

GNP/GDP(mex) in TrillionUS$90 1.5 13.2 41.8

GNP/GDP(ppp) in Trillion(1990 prices) 5.3 22.4 49.3

Final Energy by Fuel in EJNon-commercial 24.2 13.2 6.7

Solids 18.5 27.8 16.7Liquids 12.6 59.8 112.0

Gas 1.5 8.7 22.0Electricity 4.1 24.1 69.8

Other (e.g H2) 0.6 10.2 24.8Total 61.5 143.8 252.0

Primary Energy by FuelCoal 29.8 47.4 47.7Oil 15.3 62.6 92.8

Gas 2.8 30.9 55.4Nuclear 0.3 3.7 20.9Biomass 24.3 28.0 46.1

Other Renewables 1.1 12.3 42.6Synfuel Trade 0 0 13.5

Total 73.6 184.9 319.0

Coal 0.0 1.2 2.7Oil 0.0 1.0 3.3

Gas 0.0 0.3 1.5

CO2 (as C) in GtC 1.2 3.1 4.2Other CO2 (as C) in GtC 0.3 0.3 -0.1Total CO2 (as C) in GtC 1.5 3.4 4.1

CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4 127.1 222.6 265.9N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N 2.3 2.7 2.4

SOx total (as S) in MtS 17.3 31.3 24.4CO (as CO) in Mt CO 276.5 422.3 550.9

VOCs in Mt 47.8 75.3 92.2NOx (as N) in MtN 6.2 15.6 23.0

Anthropogenic Emissions

Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ

Market First scenario (MK): Market-driven developments coverage on the values and expectations that prevail in industrialized countries

Policy First scenario (PO): Strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to reach specific social and environmental goals

Security First scenario (SC): Disparities, inequality and conflict are not improved, which are brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses

Sustainability First scenario (SF): A world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new, more equitable values and institutions.

Major parameters in B2 scenarioIn Asia Pacific region (except Japan)

Changes in runoff calculated under BaU scenario

-100 -10 0 10 100 (mm/year)

CCC

ECHAM4 CCSR/NIES

- Mean runoff changes between 1980s and 2050s

- Based on the results of the transient experiments of the CCC, ECHAM4, and CCSR/NIES climate models

Increase in northern high latitude region, Indian continent, and Bengal bayConfused results in mid-ChinaDecrease in South Europe, Central plain and Brazilian Plat.

-500 0 +500 (kg/ha)

Change in the potential productivity of rice from 1990 to 2050 under the BaU scenario and stabilization scenarios

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2000 2050 2100

Potential productivity change in rice (%)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2000 2050 2100

Thailand-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2000 2050 2100

India

Brazil

BaU

GHGs 550ppmCO2eq

GHGs 475ppmCO2eq

Potential productivity change in rice (%)

Potential productivity change in rice (%)

Change of potential productivity of rice

in the top 10 countries

Mitigation of climate change, not to exceed 2 ℃ from present

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

2160

2170

2180

2190

2200

Year

Tem

pera

ture

incr

ease

(199

0=0)

BaU GHG-500ppmv GHG-600ppmv

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

2160

2170

2180

2190

2200

Year

Sea

leve

l ris

e (m

)

BaU GHG-500ppmv GHG-600ppmv

0

5

10

15

20

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

2160

2170

2180

2190

2200

Year

CO

2 eq

uiva

lent

em

issi

on(G

tCeq

/yr)

BaU GHG-500ppmv GHG-600ppmv

300

600

900

1200

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

2160

2170

2180

2190

2200

Year

CO

2 eq

uiva

lent

con

cent

ratio

n(p

pmv)

BaU GHG-500ppmv GHG-600ppmvBaU(SF) BaU(SF)

BaU(SF) BaU(SF)

Regional allocation cap using C&C scheme under the GHG-500ppm case

Carbon price without trading under C&C cap constraint with GHG-500ppm, as compared with the BaU

Change without trading under C&C cap constraint with GHG-500ppm, as compared with the BaU

Economic impacts of GHGEconomic impacts of GHG--500ppm under C&C scheme500ppm under C&C scheme

Selected studies reporting GDP losses (FAR,IPCC WG3)

10～90％ range

Less than 3%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Per C

apita

Em

issi

on (t

-CO

2e/c

apita

)

USACanadaJapanAustraliaNew ZealandW-EUE-EURussiaother CISKoreaChinaIndiaother AsiaMexicoBrazilother LAMEAfrica

• Up to now, I talked about climate change impacts. However it is only a part of concerns from the point of whole Asian environmental risks.

• Besides climate change, risks by unsafe water and sanitation, urban air pollution, and also indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels are now suffering people’s health.

• Coupling socio-economic scenarios used in climate change projection, and environmental/health impact assessment models in AIM model family, we projected future changes of these risks.

• In order to conduct such assessment work, we need spatially detailed information, e.g. polluters spatial distributions, pollutant transport processesand so on.

Air pollutant emission sources in year 2000

LPSs by cement production LPSs by steel production

LPSs by electricity generationResidential household activity

Emission inventories in year 2000

Emission from Japanand S.Korea is large

0

>10000

NOx(kg/km2)emission

0

>10000

SO2(kg/km2)emission

Emission from East part of China, S.Korea, and India is large

Japan: small Desulfurization technology

Low sulfur fuel

0

>10000

CO2(Mg/km2)emission

Emission from East part of China, S.Korea, Japan, and India is large

0

>1000

NH3(kg/km2)emission

NH3(kg/km2)emission

NH3(kg/km2)emission

Total

Unsafe water a

nd sanitation

Indoor air pollution

Urban air pollution

Climate change

1380

653

522

132

73

939

77503

356

3

117

4637

33

1

181

018

0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500M

orta

lity

(000

s)

Factors

Bangladesh, Bhutan, N.Korea, India,Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal

Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand

China, Malaysia, Micronesia, Mongolia, PapuaNew Guinea, Philippines, S.Korea, Viet Nam

Australia, Brunei, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore

year 2000

Excess mortality attributed to1) Unsafe water and insufficient sanitation 2) Indoor air pollution3) Urban air pollution, and4) Climate change

Health risks attributed to environmental factors

year 2000 situation ( estimated by WHO)

Total

Unsafe water a

nd sanitation

Indoor air pollution

Urban air pollution

Climate change

1849

602887

224

137

1225

56

682

482

5

149

3958

51

2

200

019

0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500M

orta

lity

(000

s)

Factors

Bangladesh, Bhutan, N.Korea, India,Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal

Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand

China, Malaysia, Micronesia, Mongolia, PapuaNew Guinea, Philippines, S.Korea, Viet Nam

Australia, Brunei, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore

year 2030

1) Unsafe water and insufficient sanitation : decrease 10-20%, far from eradication

2) Indoor and urban air pollution : 40-70% increase mainly caused by population and emission increase

3) Climate change : 50-90% increase caused by the escalation of climate change

BaU scenariokeeping current investments for

next 30 years

Total

Unsafe water a

nd sanitation

Indoor air pollution

Urban air pollution

Climate change

520

38 301

76105

402

4 231

163

4

412

2017

1

70

07

0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500M

orta

lity

(000

s)

Factors

Bangladesh, Bhutan, N.Korea, India,Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal

Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand

China, Malaysia, Micronesia, Mongolia, PapuaNew Guinea, Philippines, S.Korea, Viet Nam

Australia, Brunei, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore

year 2030

Excess mortality attributed t1) Unsafe water and

insufficient sanitation 2) Indoor air pollution3) Urban air pollution, and4) Climate change

Policy First ScenarioDoubling of regional Investment/GDP

ratio for next 30 years

1) Unsafe water and insufficient sanitation : nearly eradicated2) Indoor and urban air pollution : 50% decrease3) Climate change : intensive adaptation suppresses increase by

10-40%

Effects of CO2 emission reduction to infant mortality changes An example of co-benefit to air pollution

Increase of infant mortality by PM between 1990 and 2020 (Security First scenario)

Person/km2

PM concentration in ambient air in 2020 (Security First scenario)

2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050Cambodia 3,211 4,848 2,166 3,017 4,081 6,559Vietnam 3,620 5,820 1,794 2,251 5,107 8,325Laos 294 452 150 190 389 637China 29,630 44,949 14,477 19,482 40,071 63,610Afghanista 64,867 26,896 62,693 24,117 66,601 29,307India 117,494 191,781 79,017 112,248 156,290 289,783Thai 1,547 2,259 1,097 1,491 1,944 2,927Nepal 3,131 4,586 2,252 3,039 3,941 5,985Pakistan 135,107 149,503 126,227 134,248 142,914 163,305Philippine 6,478 9,819 4,468 6,218 8,310 13,237Bhutan 2,715 2,964 2,556 2,685 2,845 3,213Malaysia 281 397 203 272 345 509Korea, S 1,631 2,623 1,091 1,559 2,161 3,756Taiwan 1,556 2,367 1,072 1,494 2,000 3,205Total 371,562 449,264 299,262 312,310 436,998 594,360

Market First (MK) Policy First (PO)

BaUSecurity First

Projection schemeNo countermeasure assumed except CO2 emission reduction measures

Infant mortality by PM

Global and local policy linkages and their co-benefits

GlobalWarming

Abatement

Acid RainAbatement

Eco-tourismDevelopment

World NatureConservation

WorldResource

Development

WorldResourceRecycling

MarinePollutionControl

Air PollutionControl × ×BiodiversityConservation × × ×Reforestation × × × ×Soil Recovery × ×Food Production ×Recycling × × ×WasteManagement × × ×Water PollutionControl

Air pollutionlink ×

Water ResourceManagement ×

Cou

ntry

/Loc

al P

olic

ies

Global/Regional/Subregional Policies

NaturalResourceRecoverylink

RecyclingPromotion

link

Waterpollution

Preventionlink

BiodiversityProtection

link

Linking and integrating environmental measures at both the local and global levels often provides advantages and co-benefits not only for the developing, but also for developed countries.Examples of such linkages are;

Final remarks

• Climate change will impact on water runoff, health, and crop productivity in Asia-Pacific region by 2050.

• Health impacts caused by climate change increase 50-90% in 2030, and half of it can be reduced by adaptation.

• In order to restrict global temperature change less then 2 C, stabilization of GHG 500ppm is necessary. It requires 50% reduction of global emission by 2050. GDP changes caused by this reduction are less than 2% in 2020, and less than 4% in 2030, even if no carbon trade.

• Health risk of indoor and outdoor air pollution will be doubled under BaU countermeasures in Asia-Pacific region by 2030.

• Doubling of regional investment per GDP will halve air pollutionrisk, and nearly eradicate unsafe water and sanitation problems by 2030.

• Suitable policy linkages may benefit for local and global environmental problems