Economic Indicators February 2014

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Economic Indicators

Last update 14.2.2014

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Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – February 2014

Europe:

• Consensus February GDP forecast for WE remained on 1,4% for 2014.

• The EU industrial confidence slightly deteriorated compared to last month while the consumer

confidence indicator improved once again from its December level.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany improved for the third time in succession. The

German economy made a promising start to the New Year.

• Industry is supporting the Euro area recovery. January’s manufacturing PMI climbed,

underpinned by expansions in production and new orders and the periphery performing fairly

well. On the other hand inflation remains a concern, reaching 0,7% in January. Weak price

pressure makes it harder for insolvent countries to pay down debt.

US:

• Consensus February GDP forecast for the US improved from 2,8% to 2,9% for 2014.

• The GDP outlook for 2014 has edged up on the back of the Q4 national accounts showing GDP

growth expanding by 3,2% q-o-q. Jobless rate dropped to 6,6%, but severe winter weather has

impacted negatively on employment and output. .

Japan:

• The February GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,7% to 1,6% for 2014.

• Latest data demonstrate that the economy strengthened at the end of last year. Jobless rate fell

to 3,7% in December, the lowest unemployment rate since December 2007. Still sentiment

towards the 2014 outlook is tinged with uncertainty, especially ahead of April’s consumption tax

hike.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Feb 14

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

'07

Q1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28


-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

'07Q

1

'08 Q

1

'09 Q

1

'10 Q

1

'11 Q

1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Jan 14

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

14

/1

1

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Feb 14

Dec 13; 0,8

Feb.14; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate


10,7

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Industrial confidence within EU 28 deteriorated slightly in January.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 28 improved again in January.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Ja

n 0

6

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

79,4

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 14

The Ifo World Economic climate further brightens in Q1 2014

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 14

The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly again in Q1 2014.



Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 14



Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Dec 13


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Dec 13


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Feb 14


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Feb 14

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany in January improved for the third time in

succession. Assessments of the current business situation rose to their highest level since

June 2012. Expectations regarding future business developments reached their most

optimistic level in almost three years. The German economy made a promising start to the

New Year.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Feb 14

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany in January improved for the third time in

succession. Assessments of the current business situation rose to their highest level since

June 2012. Expectations regarding future business developments reached their most

optimistic level in almost three years. The German economy made a promising start to the

New Year.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Feb 14, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry decreased slightly from 0 to -2 in January.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – January 2014:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry only reached 9% in January, significantly below the 25%

reached in December. Still, such a slump after Christmas season has

been observed already in previous years.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – remains rather clouded, reaching -2% after 0% in the

previous month.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained negative

at -13%, the same level as in the same month of last year and up from

-23% in the previous month.

Source: IFO Feb 14, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release

Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13

Economic Indicators February 2014

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