Economic and Market Watch Report - NTREIS · 2008. 2. 15. · including the Dallas Fort Worth...

Economic and Market Watch Report

4th Quarter, 2007

*Click on a County to view economic and real estate information at the county and zip code level

© 2008 North Texas Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. andNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission in any form is prohibited without writtenpermission.

North Texas Real Estate Information Systems, Inc.

Index

North Texas Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (NTREIS) is a real estate information and technology solution provider serving the real estate community in a coverage area exceeding 16,000 square miles in North Texas, including the Dallas Fort Worth Metropolitan Area.

NTREIS provides information management services to over 16,000 MLS subscribers of its 18 shareholder REALTOR Associations, including over 3,000 real estate offices.

In addition to its information management platform; NTREIS researches, develops and delivers various technology products and services through strategic alliances, utilizing a sales and distribution network which includes its shareholder REALTOR Associations.

Economic and Market Watch Report

Local ReportTexas

1 Anderson County .........................................................................................................2 Bosque County .............................................................................................................3 Clay County .................................................................................................................4 Collin County ...............................................................................................................6 Comanche County .......................................................................................................7 Cooke County ...............................................................................................................8 Dallas County ...............................................................................................................

11 Delta County ................................................................................................................12 Denton County .............................................................................................................14 Eastland County ..........................................................................................................15 Ellis County ..................................................................................................................17 Erath County ...............................................................................................................18 Fannin County .............................................................................................................20 Franklin County ..........................................................................................................21 Freestone County .........................................................................................................22 Grayson County ...........................................................................................................24 Hamilton County .........................................................................................................25 Harrison County ..........................................................................................................26 Henderson County .......................................................................................................27 Hill County ...................................................................................................................28 Hood County ................................................................................................................29 Hopkins County ...........................................................................................................30 Hunt County .................................................................................................................32 Jack County .................................................................................................................33 Johnson County ...........................................................................................................35 Kaufman County .........................................................................................................36 Lamar County ..............................................................................................................

37 Limestone County ........................................................................................................38 Marion County .............................................................................................................39 Montague County ........................................................................................................40 Navarro County ...........................................................................................................41 Palo Pinto County ........................................................................................................42 Parker County .............................................................................................................43 Rains County ................................................................................................................44 Red River County ........................................................................................................45 Rockwall County .........................................................................................................46 Smith County ...............................................................................................................48 Somervell County ........................................................................................................49 Tarrant County ............................................................................................................52 Van Zandt County .......................................................................................................53 Wise County .................................................................................................................54 Wood County ...............................................................................................................55 Young County ..............................................................................................................

56 Others ...........................................................................................................................

57Trends ...............................................................................................................................................58Chief Economist's Commentary* ...................................................................................................59Local Forecast ..................................................................................................................................61Economic Monitor* .........................................................................................................................

*Reprinted from Real Estate Outlook: Market Trends and Insights. ©2008 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®.Used with permission. Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission of this article in any form (electronic media included) is prohibited without permission. For subscription information please call 1-800-874-6500.

Local Report

Anderson County, TX

1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 85 jobs were added to the payrolls of Anderson County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.3% during the third quarter to 5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08

$134,800Average Price $182,500

14# Homes on the Market * 21

1# Homes Sold ** 1

NA# New Homes Built *** NA ***

60Avg # of Days on Market 233 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2007.

*** During the first two months of 4th quarter. ** May not add to total of zip codes.

Zip Code Average Price Price Change***

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

***

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/

List Price)

Data by Zip Codes for Q4 2007

OTHER $182,500 - 1 - 91.7%233

1

*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.

Local Report

Bosque County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 80 jobs were added to the payrolls of Bosque County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08



16# Homes Sold ** 11





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76634 $55,300 -33.05% 6 -53.85% 98.1%9176652 $65,400 - 2 - 94.2%17576671 $58,500 -35.07% 2 -60.00% 97.6%9776690 $159,000 153.18% 1 0.00% 94.1%38

2


Local Report

Clay County, TX


Buyer's Market

Clay County saw 36 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.5% during the third quarter to 3.1% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving historically low mortgage rates to drive demand for housing.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08

NAAverage Price $212,000

NA# Homes on the Market * 5

NA# Homes Sold ** 1


NAAvg # of Days on Market 194 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2007.



Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76228 $212,000 - 1 - 95.3%194

3


Local Report

Collin County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 1,639 jobs were added to the payrolls of Collin County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.9% during the third quarter to 3.7% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08


8,936# Homes on the Market * 10,472

3,725# Homes Sold ** 2,520

1,687# New Homes Built *** 892 ***




Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75002 $192,500 -3.99% 201 -32.32% 97.3%8675009 $172,500 -16.30% 41 -6.82% 95.8%9475013 $324,300 -10.12% 130 -17.20% 94.5%9075023 $181,300 2.14% 113 -31.10% 97.6%5875024 $263,400 -2.95% 67 -6.94% 96.5%8075025 $245,300 -3.77% 147 -3.92% 97.2%6675034 $386,300 3.59% 154 -13.48% 95.9%9875035 $231,700 -3.82% 206 -10.82% 95.7%9075069 $192,900 -12.99% 101 -12.93% 95.3%81

4


Local Report

Collin County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75070 $228,100 -4.28% 288 -31.10% 96.4%8375071 $215,500 3.71% 138 -20.23% 96.6%9075074 $146,300 -7.64% 82 -26.13% 97.8%7275075 $173,800 -7.31% 76 -19.15% 97.3%7075078 $261,400 -24.06% 57 54.05% 94.9%16875093 $515,500 8.21% 130 -7.80% 94.7%9675094 $296,900 4.65% 89 -1.11% 94.2%10075098 $160,600 -0.25% 142 -19.77% 96.3%8475164 $181,600 52.22% 5 66.67% 100.6%1175166 $234,200 44.75% 8 -69.23% 96.3%7075173 $113,600 -7.34% 15 -11.76% 98.7%9475252 $279,600 -18.84% 60 11.11% 96.7%8475287 $242,100 -30.05% 48 11.63% 97.4%5375407 $124,000 -11.49% 37 -17.78% 94.4%6075409 $118,300 -16.51% 36 -48.57% 91.9%11575424 $142,800 4.69% 10 66.67% 96.3%10475442 $134,900 6.30% 17 -15.00% 95.4%12675454 $181,500 -1.73% 37 -26.00% 94.3%120

OTHER $224,300 -12.66% 85 -17.48% 96.9%79

5


Local Report

Comanche County, TX


Buyer's Market

Comanche County saw 78 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.2% during the third quarter to 3.8% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving historically low mortgage rates to drive demand for housing.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08



6# Homes Sold ** 5





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76442 $60,100 -8.66% 5 150.00% 99.8%95

6


Local Report

Cooke County, TX


Buyer's Market

Cooke County saw 3 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.9% during the third quarter to 3.6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving historically low mortgage rates to drive demand for housing.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76240 $176,400 75.52% 61 15.09% 90.4%9176250 $113,000 -11.37% 2 100.00% 96.2%4776252 $268,000 - 1 - 95.0%21476272 $176,200 43.25% 11 37.50% 96.8%143

OTHER $102,100 -9.41% 7 133.33% 95.8%90

7


Local Report

Dallas County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 5,042 jobs were added to the payrolls of Dallas County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.5% during the third quarter to 4.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08



6,816# Homes Sold ** 5,184

1,555# New Homes Built *** 736 ***




Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75001 $245,000 -3.24% 24 50.00% 94.2%9875006 $132,500 -12.77% 87 -26.27% 97.3%8675019 $296,100 1.75% 101 -35.26% 97.2%6875038 $210,300 -60.03% 23 53.33% 94.0%12575039 $330,100 -27.72% 27 200.00% 93.7%12475040 $107,400 0.94% 127 -19.11% 96.1%6175041 $76,700 -26.04% 70 -11.39% 95.0%7675042 $101,300 -3.06% 62 -39.22% 96.7%7975043 $116,600 -17.36% 172 0.00% 97.1%86

8


Local Report

Dallas County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75044 $160,600 -15.92% 107 -27.70% 94.6%9775048 $158,700 -5.76% 38 -47.95% 97.1%8475050 $104,000 7.00% 58 31.82% 94.6%8475051 $95,300 9.04% 65 0.00% 97.9%7475052 $126,100 -9.02% 167 -17.33% 94.8%8875060 $102,800 -18.99% 59 -44.86% 96.9%7075061 $124,500 -5.47% 53 -28.38% 95.9%9375062 $169,300 26.82% 70 -11.39% 97.0%7375063 $251,000 -6.38% 87 -23.01% 95.9%7875080 $175,200 8.55% 94 -14.55% 97.1%6875081 $153,200 -4.07% 103 8.42% 96.5%6975082 $205,500 20.60% 5 25.00% 95.8%8175088 $150,200 4.67% 67 -34.95% 97.2%8175089 $162,800 -2.40% 91 -22.88% 96.7%8075104 $154,100 8.44% 178 -9.18% 96.7%9975115 $145,500 -3.58% 183 -7.11% 96.6%10375116 $97,000 -11.74% 43 -20.37% 95.6%9875134 $111,500 -6.54% 73 -31.13% 96.6%9475137 $120,800 -9.99% 50 -24.24% 96.9%13275141 $69,900 -4.25% 4 300.00% 89.3%4975146 $101,000 -18.02% 64 -17.95% 96.3%10375149 $84,400 -5.59% 133 -17.39% 96.4%7475150 $87,800 -15.41% 114 -20.83% 97.1%8675159 $101,800 2.31% 48 -36.00% 94.6%12475172 $133,000 104.30% 5 -28.57% 104.5%3175180 $80,900 0.50% 40 -27.27% 97.8%7175181 $141,000 -2.08% 79 -38.76% 98.1%9275182 $400,500 42.98% 11 -8.33% 96.0%10275201 $899,600 - 21 - 98.1%22275202 $167,200 - 9 - 93.5%18575203 $142,700 81.32% 10 42.86% 99.0%13875204 $333,500 55.19% 56 409.09% 97.1%10575205 $1,216,800 -8.44% 72 7.46% 97.2%8675206 $309,600 -12.74% 126 50.00% 96.8%8175208 $236,300 8.69% 61 -7.58% 95.9%7775209 $609,000 -5.97% 71 -4.05% 98.0%77

9


Local Report

Dallas County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75210 $31,000 -4.91% 1 -66.67% 103.7%11875211 $91,400 -7.21% 58 -22.67% 98.3%6875212 $87,200 1.99% 12 -40.00% 99.6%7975214 $404,300 10.31% 149 -0.67% 96.8%9275215 $85,900 87.15% 11 -35.29% 104.5%7075216 $44,900 -5.87% 41 -39.71% 93.0%6475217 $63,800 -8.73% 118 -9.92% 95.2%8975218 $278,300 21.00% 74 -8.64% 96.9%6775219 $344,500 -23.38% 121 1244.44% 97.7%10575220 $571,300 30.08% 44 -10.20% 98.1%7175223 $228,300 6.19% 12 -36.84% 96.0%6475224 $103,300 -5.40% 39 -18.75% 97.1%7475225 $1,009,800 0.37% 78 20.00% 96.3%8175226 $299,000 195.45% 1 -66.67% 100.0%7675227 $80,800 -4.60% 88 -20.00% 94.9%9275228 $110,900 -9.84% 133 -17.39% 97.1%7275229 $501,100 3.90% 93 -23.14% 97.1%7975230 $615,400 -9.74% 105 20.69% 97.0%9675231 $173,200 -33.97% 45 80.00% 97.1%7475232 $87,500 1.51% 49 -22.22% 96.9%7275233 $100,800 -3.36% 20 11.11% 97.0%7275234 $149,200 -8.01% 61 -21.79% 95.6%8475235 $152,900 11.61% 19 11.76% 96.0%5975236 $97,600 -10.29% 24 4.35% 96.2%6275237 $95,500 -2.15% 7 16.67% 92.9%8775238 $222,900 6.96% 61 -15.28% 96.9%6775240 $250,500 -26.82% 34 17.24% 95.1%7975241 $64,100 3.22% 72 71.43% 94.7%7875243 $155,200 -30.28% 71 51.06% 97.1%6575244 $254,900 -9.42% 28 7.69% 97.2%6775246 $244,700 60.99% 3 -40.00% 97.2%7675248 $283,200 -19.13% 83 -25.23% 96.1%7075249 $116,300 -11.49% 52 -27.78% 95.1%11975253 $76,100 -19.39% 24 20.00% 98.1%4675254 $255,000 -50.60% 30 66.67% 96.9%70

OTHER $157,200 -6.09% 115 -10.16% 96.9%84

10


Local Report

Delta County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 11 jobs were added to the payrolls of Delta County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.5% during the third quarter to 4.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75432 $82,600 3.12% 12 33.33% 91.5%11275441 $52,500 - 2 - 80.8%21575448 $98,500 - 2 - 95.2%9575450 $72,500 20.83% 1 0.00% 87.9%256

OTHER $95,000 77.57% 1 0.00% 92.2%22

11


Local Report

Denton County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 1,402 jobs were added to the payrolls of Denton County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4% during the third quarter to 3.6% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08



2,777# Homes Sold ** 1,916

537# New Homes Built *** 412 ***




Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75007 $192,400 -0.57% 129 -24.56% 96.7%7575010 $211,000 1.30% 46 -19.30% 97.5%6275022 $394,700 2.97% 63 -41.12% 97.1%7975028 $238,400 1.19% 149 -20.74% 98.1%5775034 $324,300 2.11% 200 -6.54% 94.9%11775056 $228,000 5.65% 131 -36.71% 95.7%7675057 $82,900 -25.38% 7 -63.16% 93.6%7675065 $176,700 7.68% 28 -39.13% 97.0%7875067 $146,500 1.17% 118 -30.59% 97.2%68

12


Local Report

Denton County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75068 $178,600 7.33% 173 -23.45% 94.2%10875077 $214,800 -1.56% 134 -9.46% 97.5%7776201 $183,200 59.72% 24 0.00% 95.6%11876205 $195,200 6.78% 23 -32.35% 95.5%7576207 $167,000 20.84% 27 -25.00% 95.3%10176208 $184,000 -12.30% 33 -15.38% 97.9%8176209 $115,600 6.35% 54 -15.63% 96.8%6076210 $175,800 -2.22% 160 -14.89% 97.5%9076226 $411,200 34.20% 81 -8.99% 96.7%10776227 $162,300 1.37% 62 -35.42% 97.2%9476247 $143,700 -5.58% 65 3.17% 96.4%7476249 $149,500 -11.38% 23 -4.17% 97.5%6776258 $273,900 127.68% 15 -25.00% 92.3%10776259 $148,600 -6.25% 14 27.27% 98.2%6976262 $245,800 -0.32% 60 -15.49% 98.2%5976266 $150,000 -3.54% 39 0.00% 95.5%87

OTHER $289,500 -27.46% 58 -18.31% 95.7%70

13


Local Report

Eastland County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 242 jobs were added to the payrolls of Eastland County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.5% during the third quarter to 3.9% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76437 $39,700 - 2 - 96.4%19776448 $69,000 - 7 - 91.0%9176454 $139,000 - 1 - 88.3%168

14


Local Report

Ellis County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 293 jobs were added to the payrolls of Ellis County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75119 $123,800 16.68% 38 -20.83% 93.1%7775125 $153,300 157.21% 5 -44.44% 97.5%13775152 $90,400 -31.41% 6 -45.45% 94.0%11075154 $146,700 -4.86% 60 -39.39% 96.7%9675165 $134,500 1.82% 90 -10.00% 96.4%7775167 $207,900 20.03% 19 -17.39% 95.3%7976041 $200,000 434.76% 1 0.00% 100.1%3776064 $130,000 -17.98% 1 -80.00% 100.8%14676065 $186,400 -3.57% 108 -4.42% 96.1%99

15


Local Report

Ellis County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76651 $257,800 226.33% 6 -14.29% 85.3%11176670 $64,000 -55.86% 3 200.00% 99.5%28

OTHER $183,200 22.87% 10 0.00% 91.5%60

16


Local Report

Erath County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 553 jobs were added to the payrolls of Erath County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4% during the third quarter to 3.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76401 $115,900 7.41% 48 -20.00% 94.9%7276433 $255,800 34.63% 2 0.00% 93.9%6576446 $126,400 12.46% 3 -70.00% 97.0%71

17


Local Report

Fannin County, TX


Buyer's Market

Fannin County saw 74 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.5% during the third quarter to 5.1% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving historically low mortgage rates to drive demand for housing.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75413 $143,600 - 1 - 106.5%1175418 $88,700 -2.85% 30 7.14% 95.3%9075438 $55,000 - 3 - 94.3%24475439 $61,000 -41.90% 2 100.00% 83.6%9575446 $79,600 0.38% 4 33.33% 98.5%5175447 $86,300 -9.25% 2 0.00% 98.0%15375449 $265,000 381.82% 1 -50.00% 88.6%22175452 $104,400 0.58% 16 128.57% 95.7%10175479 $83,500 -48.30% 1 -50.00% 95.4%7

18


Local Report

Fannin County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75488 $210,700 321.40% 1 -50.00% 84.3%9075490 $98,100 -16.23% 4 -60.00% 100.9%176

19


Local Report

Franklin County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 40 jobs were added to the payrolls of Franklin County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.9% during the third quarter to 3.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08



4# Homes Sold ** 7





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75457 $247,200 - 5 - 92.3%199OTHER $83,300 66.60% 2 100.00% 95.7%85

20


Local Report

Freestone County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 119 jobs were added to the payrolls of Freestone County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.6% during the third quarter to 3.4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75840 $138,000 89.30% 5 0.00% 92.0%8575859 $160,100 -1.05% 4 100.00% 93.8%13475860 $72,600 -14.59% 5 25.00% 94.8%82

OTHER $127,500 - 1 - 94.5%41

21


Local Report

Grayson County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 505 jobs were added to the payrolls of Grayson County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75020 $113,400 8.72% 59 7.27% 94.6%12275021 $103,300 20.82% 11 -26.67% 90.7%20875058 $154,600 -28.13% 5 -37.50% 92.3%3775076 $140,700 1.74% 29 16.00% 91.5%13575090 $92,300 -3.15% 37 -30.19% 95.7%12075092 $130,500 7.32% 59 -20.27% 94.1%10675414 $104,500 -1.69% 4 -33.33% 95.0%14275459 $107,700 6.95% 17 88.89% 93.0%8075489 $81,400 8.39% 5 -28.57% 99.4%103

22


Local Report

Grayson County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75491 $81,000 -48.01% 4 -20.00% 99.8%7675495 $200,800 31.67% 20 -33.33% 93.1%9776233 $128,100 9.58% 5 -16.67% 95.1%3076245 $71,500 -15.98% 6 0.00% 92.9%21176264 $84,000 -39.35% 4 300.00% 95.0%8176271 $54,000 -57.38% 3 -57.14% 97.0%10876273 $97,100 -3.48% 12 -50.00% 92.6%102

23


Local Report

Hamilton County, TX


Buyer's Market

Hamilton County saw 28 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.9% during the third quarter to 3.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving historically low mortgage rates to drive demand for housing.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08



5# Homes Sold ** 2





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76457 $185,000 132.12% 2 -60.00% 91.4%101

24


Local Report

Harrison County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 83 jobs were added to the payrolls of Harrison County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.8% during the third quarter to 4.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08


NA# Homes on the Market * NA

NA# Homes Sold ** 1





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75661 $231,000 - 1 - 94.3%144

25


Local Report

Henderson County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 263 jobs were added to the payrolls of Henderson County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75124 $83,500 -81.42% 2 -50.00% 93.3%14075148 $442,500 254.57% 2 -66.67% 85.2%3475156 $118,500 -32.32% 23 -8.00% 94.7%11175163 $107,300 -32.13% 3 0.00% 93.4%12075751 $265,800 107.98% 6 -14.29% 91.4%10675756 $40,000 - 1 - 114.3%3475770 $373,000 - 2 - 99.6%16675778 $72,000 - 1 - 103.4%64

OTHER $141,600 23.02% 13 -38.10% 97.5%121

26


Local Report

Hill County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 125 jobs were added to the payrolls of Hill County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5% during the third quarter to 4.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76621 $50,000 -23.08% 1 0.00% 84.0%17776622 $2,212,000 - 1 - 100.5%35176627 $49,100 -45.63% 1 -66.67% 100.2%1076636 $188,800 48.66% 2 0.00% 101.8%11276645 $77,600 -8.81% 10 -47.37% 94.5%9676648 $247,500 366.98% 2 0.00% 93.3%6176673 $88,400 - 1 - 100.4%8276692 $90,800 -30.37% 41 -10.87% 95.6%106

OTHER $128,900 329.67% 1 0.00% 100.0%109

27


Local Report

Hood County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 213 jobs were added to the payrolls of Hood County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.6% during the third quarter to 4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76048 $204,300 9.90% 70 -18.60% 97.3%8476049 $258,000 41.14% 115 -8.00% 97.6%10176462 $230,000 101.75% 2 -50.00% 99.1%10876476 $149,400 18.85% 8 33.33% 95.3%95

28


Local Report

Hopkins County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 89 jobs were added to the payrolls of Hopkins County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.8% during the third quarter to 3.6% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75420 $120,800 -50.37% 4 0.00% 92.0%12375431 $85,900 11.56% 3 200.00% 91.4%4575433 $165,000 40.55% 2 -33.33% 100.5%12875437 $113,900 60.42% 2 100.00% 94.9%5775482 $183,600 53.64% 34 -37.04% 89.6%76

OTHER $81,000 - 1 - 100.0%205

29


Local Report

Hunt County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 171 jobs were added to the payrolls of Hunt County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.5% during the third quarter to 4.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75135 $138,000 33.33% 12 -36.84% 97.4%10475401 $72,700 -25.66% 20 -13.04% 93.3%10075402 $115,400 2.12% 36 -23.40% 94.5%8675422 $85,600 -28.55% 3 -50.00% 97.0%10375423 $75,100 -17.11% 3 0.00% 103.2%8175428 $99,100 -16.37% 8 -38.46% 92.3%13175453 $97,000 34.72% 4 -20.00% 101.6%17075474 $107,800 15.54% 40 21.21% 95.8%9075496 $53,000 -43.62% 3 -25.00% 84.7%61

30


Local Report

Hunt County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


OTHER $186,200 -1.27% 20 -13.04% 96.6%102

31


Local Report

Jack County, TX


Buyer's Market

Jack County saw 91 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.9% during the third quarter to 3.6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving historically low mortgage rates to drive demand for housing.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08



2# Homes Sold ** 2





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76458 $92,000 9.00% 1 -75.00% 97.4%143OTHER $62,300 - 1 - 113.5%170

32


Local Report

Johnson County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 588 jobs were added to the payrolls of Johnson County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.2% during the third quarter to 3.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76009 $94,000 11.24% 35 -25.53% 96.7%6376028 $149,400 8.50% 128 -14.67% 97.7%8676031 $109,100 8.99% 31 10.71% 98.9%11776033 $116,400 6.40% 79 -13.19% 96.6%8876044 $175,100 22.62% 7 -50.00% 95.0%6876050 $117,700 -8.90% 11 10.00% 99.3%10676058 $99,900 -24.49% 30 -31.82% 97.8%6776059 $105,700 22.48% 8 33.33% 97.8%16376084 $115,500 53.18% 21 10.53% 103.0%49

33


Local Report

Johnson County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76093 $88,700 -7.99% 5 66.67% 102.9%214OTHER $160,100 -1.36% 24 9.09% 99.6%95

34


Local Report

Kaufman County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 191 jobs were added to the payrolls of Kaufman County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.8% during the third quarter to 4.4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75114 $113,300 15.26% 20 -4.76% 99.1%6275126 $155,900 -3.29% 125 -22.36% 96.1%9075142 $118,100 6.11% 37 -37.29% 96.6%10775143 $115,500 44.56% 16 14.29% 95.4%9175147 $789,400 635.01% 5 0.00% 71.7%15875158 $154,000 29.30% 9 -18.18% 95.6%13075160 $122,100 -3.71% 55 -6.78% 95.2%11175161 $125,400 25.27% 18 100.00% 97.3%80

OTHER $176,300 4.88% 2 -84.62% 90.9%95

35


Local Report

Lamar County, TX


Buyer's Market

Lamar County saw 174 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5% during the third quarter to 4.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving historically low mortgage rates to drive demand for housing.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75411 $97,300 - 3 - 97.5%15075416 $115,000 86.08% 1 0.00% 100.0%12275421 $155,000 - 1 - 97.5%4075435 $128,400 - 2 - 92.4%12375460 $102,200 43.74% 14 55.56% 95.4%10475462 $130,200 -33.77% 6 -33.33% 97.2%7175473 $105,700 -27.10% 3 200.00% 93.4%10275486 $41,000 -36.83% 1 0.00% 102.5%10

36


Local Report

Limestone County, TX


Buyer's Market

Limestone County saw 37 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.6% during the third quarter to 4.3% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving historically low mortgage rates to drive demand for housing.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08



5# Homes Sold ** 1





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76667 $30,600 - 1 - 62.4%277

37


Local Report

Marion County, TX


Buyer's Market

Marion County saw 18 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.1% during the third quarter to 4.6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong leaving historically low mortgage rates to drive demand for housing.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08


NA# Homes on the Market * 2

NA# Homes Sold ** 1





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


OTHER $145,000 - 1 - 93.6%162

38


Local Report

Montague County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 100 jobs were added to the payrolls of Montague County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.8% during the third quarter to 3.6% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76230 $96,100 0.95% 8 60.00% 93.7%13876251 $500,000 - 1 - 96.3%22876255 $96,200 -8.82% 2 0.00% 100.0%15776265 $215,000 300.37% 1 -50.00% 89.6%108

39


Local Report

Navarro County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 461 jobs were added to the payrolls of Navarro County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.1% during the third quarter to 4.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75102 $191,000 -40.31% 1 0.00% 88.8%475109 $151,000 20.70% 16 300.00% 97.9%7375110 $112,500 12.05% 49 2.08% 92.2%11775144 $76,500 -8.93% 2 -60.00% 93.0%8576626 $213,400 - 4 - 92.1%7276641 $285,000 318.50% 1 0.00% 95.0%1676679 $89,000 30.12% 1 -75.00% 99.0%113

40


Local Report

Palo Pinto County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 10 jobs were added to the payrolls of Palo Pinto County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.6% during the third quarter to 3.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76067 $106,000 29.90% 30 -25.00% 92.7%9076449 $386,300 21.44% 14 75.00% 94.3%13276472 $195,000 519.05% 1 0.00% 89.0%113

OTHER $303,500 51.00% 2 -33.33% 94.9%111

41


Local Report

Parker County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 414 jobs were added to the payrolls of Parker County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.1% during the third quarter to 3.7% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76008 $305,700 18.30% 43 7.50% 95.6%10976066 $117,800 - 3 - 104.1%10276082 $105,300 -19.80% 51 -19.05% 99.8%7376085 $130,400 -7.91% 20 -45.95% 100.0%8376086 $117,200 4.92% 59 -13.24% 96.4%11776087 $188,700 -6.54% 82 -1.20% 96.2%9276088 $190,600 11.85% 41 24.24% 97.2%11076487 $82,000 8.90% 1 -80.00% 93.7%34

OTHER $204,300 -15.86% 35 -10.26% 96.4%105

42


Local Report

Rains County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 4 jobs were added to the payrolls of Rains County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.6% during the third quarter to 4.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75440 $307,400 162.06% 8 -33.33% 82.8%10375472 $104,900 5.32% 7 75.00% 92.7%66

OTHER $64,700 - 5 - 95.3%39

43


Local Report

Red River County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 127 jobs were added to the payrolls of Red River County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5% during the third quarter to 4.4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08



9# Homes Sold ** 4





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75426 $76,700 - 3 - 86.1%61675436 $50,000 -62.96% 1 0.00% 80.6%173

44


Local Report

Rockwall County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 145 jobs were added to the payrolls of Rockwall County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.1% during the third quarter to 3.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75032 $282,300 -0.98% 110 13.40% 96.3%11275087 $210,800 -0.94% 102 5.15% 95.4%9675132 $157,200 -18.08% 20 53.85% 98.1%10775189 $165,400 10.12% 48 -51.02% 96.8%77

OTHER $122,900 -16.68% 26 -51.85% 97.2%94

45


Local Report

Smith County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 1,174 jobs were added to the payrolls of Smith County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.3% during the third quarter to 3.9% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75701 $110,800 - 3 - 92.0%11175703 $326,500 - 2 - 99.0%2775705 $230,000 - 1 - 89.9%20575707 $180,900 - 4 - 89.2%10075750 $362,500 - 1 - 96.0%5475757 $249,000 -4.89% 1 -66.67% 95.8%15875762 $238,000 - 1 - 96.0%14075771 $185,500 15.22% 16 -30.43% 95.8%13575791 $339,000 - 1 - 89.4%81

46


Local Report

Smith County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75792 $83,000 - 1 - 97.6%43

47


Local Report

Somervell County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 35 jobs were added to the payrolls of Somervell County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.9% during the third quarter to 4.4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76043 $232,400 41.62% 20 33.33% 95.6%8376070 $396,300 284.76% 2 100.00% 78.6%3876077 $234,500 - 1 - 97.7%286

48


Local Report

Tarrant County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 6,863 jobs were added to the payrolls of Tarrant County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.3% during the third quarter to 3.9% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08



6,369# Homes Sold ** 4,687

2,169# New Homes Built *** 1,106 ***




Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76001 $140,200 -8.78% 93 -30.08% 97.9%6576002 $141,500 -2.01% 119 -31.21% 96.9%8676006 $162,800 -34.96% 33 0.00% 95.0%7676010 $68,100 -3.95% 56 -30.00% 94.7%7876011 $130,900 -10.47% 25 19.05% 95.2%8076012 $178,000 10.77% 63 -11.27% 95.3%9576013 $157,600 0.45% 50 -12.28% 95.7%7276014 $86,500 -4.53% 61 -16.44% 97.7%7876015 $103,700 -11.82% 33 6.45% 95.5%84

49


Local Report

Tarrant County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76016 $176,300 0.63% 98 -16.95% 96.6%7676017 $120,000 -18.64% 109 -33.54% 96.5%8176018 $107,800 -3.84% 80 -27.27% 98.6%7376020 $141,900 11.29% 46 -29.23% 97.4%8576021 $178,700 -0.39% 97 0.00% 97.7%6476022 $122,600 -5.26% 35 -20.45% 96.7%4776034 $539,900 2.35% 74 -30.19% 97.4%9676036 $144,600 -0.07% 59 -36.56% 94.5%10376039 $155,100 -12.62% 73 -6.41% 97.7%6076040 $128,500 -6.68% 41 -28.07% 97.5%6376051 $229,800 5.27% 117 0.00% 96.9%5976052 $190,800 7.67% 88 -20.00% 95.6%6476053 $129,700 11.91% 55 -27.63% 96.3%6676054 $197,800 -3.65% 35 -42.62% 96.5%7076060 $229,200 50.39% 17 13.33% 94.4%16176063 $185,400 -3.24% 215 -17.62% 96.4%8176092 $623,100 4.02% 77 -31.25% 97.4%7076102 $387,600 80.78% 18 800.00% 96.2%30176103 $73,900 -14.86% 28 -17.65% 96.9%7576104 $103,100 34.77% 12 -20.00% 93.0%19776105 $46,400 -19.44% 13 -43.48% 91.7%6376106 $62,600 -13.06% 19 -45.71% 95.8%6076107 $279,200 21.92% 71 -22.83% 95.7%7476108 $132,100 14.97% 94 -31.39% 96.6%7376109 $220,600 -27.22% 48 11.63% 97.2%7076110 $132,100 -2.00% 33 -26.67% 95.2%8576111 $77,000 0.13% 26 -46.94% 97.0%6176112 $97,200 -3.67% 82 -4.65% 96.0%10376114 $109,700 43.77% 57 14.00% 94.7%8376115 $51,900 -21.95% 12 -47.83% 93.5%4876116 $169,400 15.16% 97 -17.80% 97.0%10276117 $80,500 1.13% 50 -33.33% 96.5%7476118 $110,100 -9.53% 38 -25.49% 98.8%6176119 $65,000 15.25% 42 -12.50% 96.3%7276120 $128,600 -2.58% 41 28.13% 97.1%7876123 $127,500 -10.71% 135 -20.12% 96.5%95

50


Local Report

Tarrant County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76126 $294,700 75.10% 72 20.00% 95.3%7676131 $139,300 0.14% 113 -42.93% 95.4%12176132 $262,000 -19.01% 39 -26.42% 96.4%6976133 $106,300 -0.37% 110 -29.49% 96.5%7376134 $95,600 -6.64% 58 -34.09% 97.2%8676135 $139,300 3.96% 49 -23.44% 98.0%7676137 $124,700 -5.67% 176 -21.78% 97.6%8376140 $96,900 -7.27% 93 -6.06% 95.9%9076148 $104,000 1.27% 64 -48.80% 98.0%7776164 $66,600 - 3 - 91.6%7076177 $153,800 -11.81% 36 260.00% 94.4%12676179 $153,700 -8.40% 221 -1.78% 96.3%9976180 $179,100 -1.43% 164 -26.46% 96.7%7376248 $225,800 -0.35% 398 -17.60% 96.4%70

OTHER $228,000 17.34% 326 0.62% 95.7%100

51


Local Report

Van Zandt County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 303 jobs were added to the payrolls of Van Zandt County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.1% during the third quarter to 3.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75103 $146,500 -2.92% 27 35.00% 92.8%13275117 $157,900 50.38% 7 133.33% 98.0%8475127 $81,600 - 3 - 99.1%8475140 $93,900 -25.36% 11 57.14% 92.3%9975169 $111,700 21.55% 17 -41.38% 96.7%14275754 $330,200 294.03% 8 166.67% 94.8%14775790 $89,100 -14.33% 9 125.00% 96.8%152

OTHER $160,200 44.19% 5 0.00% 94.3%176

52


Local Report

Wise County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 226 jobs were added to the payrolls of Wise County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.3% during the third quarter to 3.7% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76023 $118,900 19.98% 3 -57.14% 108.4%8876071 $158,900 -17.54% 5 0.00% 104.3%10676073 $143,100 -1.45% 8 -27.27% 95.3%11476078 $150,100 3.59% 30 -14.29% 95.1%9676225 $197,200 76.54% 6 -53.85% 94.6%6676234 $140,400 -7.75% 34 6.25% 98.1%9976426 $143,400 35.54% 18 -5.26% 97.0%13076431 $206,400 95.83% 5 -28.57% 97.6%114

OTHER $118,100 -36.84% 15 66.67% 96.7%84

53


Local Report

Wood County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 281 jobs were added to the payrolls of Wood County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.8% during the third quarter to 4.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08








Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75410 $82,500 -49.23% 2 0.00% 91.7%12275494 $103,100 1.88% 7 -30.00% 95.9%9075497 $146,300 -22.47% 6 20.00% 90.2%13075765 $152,500 - 2 - 92.5%9175773 $170,000 13.03% 4 0.00% 96.0%11375783 $138,200 -4.03% 10 150.00% 92.6%146

54


Local Report

Young County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 67 jobs were added to the payrolls of Young County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.5% during the third quarter to 3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 07 Q4' 07 Q1' 08



6# Homes Sold ** 3





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


76372 $29,000 - 1 - 87.9%2776450 $29,000 - 2 - 77.4%71

55


Local Report

Others


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



List Price)


75455 $111,800 272.67% 2 100.00% 92.4%8475501 $36,800 -18.22% 2 100.00% 106.7%1175551 $45,000 -6.64% 1 0.00% 91.8%1275568 $58,700 - 1 - 80.4%11375605 $310,000 - 1 - 88.7%3975686 $38,500 15.27% 2 100.00% 93.0%4876657 $225,000 - 1 - 100.0%10176708 $66,200 - 3 - 100.0%2976823 $38,900 - 1 - 84.7%4176825 $35,500 -21.11% 1 0.00% 80.9%10076834 $38,000 - 1 - 95.2%7877340 $249,900 - 1 - 100.0%3579601 $80,300 - 1 - 111.5%65

OTHER $119,500 - 1 - 120.1%72

56


57

Trends

Jekyll and Hyde…A Market with Two FacesBy Ken FearsManager, Regional Economics

Buyers have been bombarded with horror stories lately. Sales have fallen sharply, foreclosures have risen, inventoriesare near record levels, and homes are sitting on the market longer. Finally, out right price declines are being reported atthe national level and in many local markets. But isn’t this a good thing for buyers? Yes, and they are beginning to takenote.

For months now the media has been portraying the downside of the transition of this housing market from a sellers’ to abuyers market. But for every looser there is a winner and now it is buyers’ time to reap the benefits. The recent shakeup in the mortgage market has conferred on buyers the last of the important perquisites for it to truly be a buyers market.Despite what many pundits have argued for a year or more, it has not been a buyers’ market. Home sales slowed anddays on market rose, but buyers were not buying…and they shouldn’t have. Prices were flat or rising in the face ofmortgage rates that were climbing. From June of 2005 to July of 2007 the average 30-year fixed, conforming mortgageclimbed from 5.6% to 6.7%. This combination pushed affordability down as monthly payments rose beyond what wasrealistic for most buyers. Consequently, many would-be buyers chose to forgo buying rather than get stuck with riskyloans.

But the recent sub-prime fallout pushed already extended sellers to do things that they were hoping not to; to acceptappraisals, to fix issues with their property prior to sale, and to make price or financing concessions. The last strawsnapped with the virtual elimination of the sub-prime market. During the hay-day of the housing market, buyers couldscarcely use FHA loans, which carry average rates of 6.5% versus 9.5% for sub-prime, because FHA mortgages requireappraisals, more paper work and took significantly more time. Sellers simply would not entertain bids from bidders withthese mortgages in the face of so many other buyers who were willing to find other means of financing that were moreappealing for sellers. Now, sellers don’t have that luxury and buyers have the upper hand on this and many other partsof the negotiation process.

The winds are blowing with buyers who’ve been disgruntled and move to the side lines. But soon they will face risingrents and they will be forced to ask them selves whether to continue to rent or to buy. When they re-evaluate thisdecision, they will a find a much more pleasant landscape.

But this opportunity has not been extended to all segments of the buying market. The recent mortgage market melt-down extended the spread between loans that fall under the conforming loan limit of $417,000 and those that do not.The $417,000 limit is crucial to investors in mortgage backed securities because it is the maximum value of a mortgagethat the GSEs will back. This implicit insurance against default risk is the only thing that has kept funding in themortgage market at all. Buyers that are using mortgages above this limit, called jumbo loans, face much higher mortgagerates, while conforming rates have slipped. On average, the spread between conforming and jumbo rates rose to 96basis points (e.g. the difference between 6.0% and 6.96% for example) versus just 23 basis points back in early July of2007.

Here in the area covered by North Texas Real Estate Information Systems roughly 6.2% of the market falls into thejumbo category, while the rest are conforming. In the fourth quarter of 2007, sales of homes in the jumbo price range fellby 33.0% compared to the same period in 2006. Sales of homes in the conforming category fell by 31.8%. This analysissuggests that, by comparison, the sharp increase in jumbo rates is having a strong effect on properties priced over theconforming limit.

The difference for a buyer on the margin between a conforming loan and a jumbo loan is immense. It is the differencebetween a door wide open and a door firmly shut. This market can seem dire for those in higher priced markets, but thedoor is not shut to all. The opportunities for those who can find homes under the conforming loan limit are boundlessand buyers’ agents should be steering their clients with this in mind. Likewise, seller’s agents should take note, thatmoving their clients to market to this category, via reduced price, forgoing improvements, help with financing or closingcosts or any other means to help the buyer afford the down payment that might put them into a conforming loan, iscritical. FHA reform has reduced many of the once onerous requirements on these loans, making them more appealing tosellers. Finally, NAR has worked tirelessly to get the conforming loan limit raised by Congress. If this legislation ispassed, it will help to restore confidence in a substantial portion of the jumbo market and re-energize the higher-endmarket.

58

CommentarySpinning the WheelsLawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

Though unlikely given abundant pent-up demand, we are faced with the possibility that the housing market could spur a vicious cycle. The marketis fragile due to excessive pessimism among potential home buyers. A lack of buyers pushes up inventory. High inventory depresses home prices.Falling home prices raise foreclosures. Higher foreclosures lead to further pessimism among potential buyers. The cycle starts again.

This situation, driven by a lack of buyer confidence, not only impacts homeowners and the housing industry but could easily spread to thebroader economy. Any further weakening in the housing market and its related housing wealth impact will likely throw GDP growth into negativeterritory — by a full two percentage points. That could push the economy into a virtually “no-growth zone” and very close to an economicrecession.

Why are buyers hesitant? Obviously each household makes its own decision as to whether or not it’s time to purchase a home. But there areseveral major factors that may be holding buyers back.

Anticipated lower home prices are holding back many people from buying a home now. Foreclosures will continue to rise in 2008. Risingforeclosures also push prices downward. In addition, the psychological effect of rising foreclosures affect people’s outlook on housing.

Anticipated lower interest rates are also restraining potential buyers. It is widely believed that the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates inthe next two meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. While there is no direct relationship between a Fed rate cut and mortgage ratechanges, many consumers perceive that mortgage rates will fall with the later cuts. I should note here that NAR advocates a one-time large rate cutrather than a series of small rate cuts in order to end the delay in home buying.

Subprime lending has virtually disappeared since August, 2007. It had comprised about 20% of mortgage originations. While some subprimelending will return, it will do so with improved underwriting standards, a stricter and sounder regulatory environment, and with proper pricing ofrisk. But the timing of its return remains very uncertain. A recent pick-up in FHA loan endorsement is very encouraging in bringing some would besubprime borrowers into loans with much safer interest rates and in helping some homeowners refinance out of the riskier subprime loans.

The jumbo mortgage market is not functioning. Current conforming mortgages average about 6%. Based on historical trends, rates on jumboloans would be about 6.2% or 6.3%. Rather, the rates are closer to 7% due to the investor fear of anything U.S. mortgage that does not have a(perceived) backing of the U.S. government. Any rational home buyer will balk at such a higher interest rate.

How to stop this vicious cycle? Any boost to buyer confidence will have a significant impact in reviving the housing market and in lifting theeconomy. As I mentioned briefly last month in this column, one policy measure that can lift buyer confidence is raising the GSE (Fannie Mae,Freddie Mac) loan limits. A simple lifting of the loan limit from its current $417,000 to $625,000 would enable more households to enter the housingmarket using a conventional mortgage. The direct higher sales would likely induce other hesitant buyers into the marketplace. More home sales willlower inventory and thus strengthen home prices. Any strengthening in home prices could possibly have the biggest impact in loweringforeclosures.

What does that mean in “real life?” We estimate raising the GSE loan limit to $625,000 will result in:

o 348,000 additional home saleso $44 billion in increased economic activityo $274 to $411 per month savings in interest payments for consumers who get new “GSE jumbo” loans versus current private jumbo loanso potentially 500,000 refinancings of jumbo loans at lower interest rateso a reduction in the national months’ supply of homes on the market by one montho strengthen home prices by two to three percentage pointso a reduction in the number of foreclosures by 140,000 to 210,000

All this will help improve our economy. Each home sale contributes to GDP. In 2001, a typical first-time home buyer spent $3,500 on furniture,carpet, painting, faucets, and other items after purchasing a home. Trade-up buyers spent $5,000. Obviously those amounts would be greater today– conservatively, I’d say the average would be $4,500.

There is also income generated by real estate services (moving companies, mortgage lending, inspection, appraisers, etc.), estimated to be about9% of the home sale price. A $417,000 home sale generates $37,500 in direct economic activity. There is also the multiplier effect. The homeinspector who earned a fee on that home sale goes out to dinner at a restaurant. The owner of that restaurant buys a plasma screen TV. The TVsalesperson takes his/her sales commission and takes a vacation. The vacation resort hires additional workers. Those workers will buy a home ...

It’s another cycle – but not a vicious one.

59

Forecast

The ForecastBy Lawrence Yun, Senior Research Forecaster

The weakness in the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter of 2007 was affirmed by very soft job figures forDecember. Only 18,000 net new payroll jobs were added during the month compared to 119,000 monthlyjob gains for the rest of 2007 and 189,000 (monthly) in 2006. The unemployment rate rose to 5.0%, itshighest level in two years, after having treaded at around 4.5% in the first half of 2007.

Current housing market conditions remain weak. The national existing home sales have been right at ornear 5 million for the past three months, possibly hinting at stabilization and a formation of a bottom. Butthe current annualized sales pace would only match the 1998 annual figures (10 years ago) and are down20% from a year ago and down 30% from the peak year of 2005. The current level of activity is far belowthat of even the pre-boom year of 2001.

New home construction and new home sales have contracted even more. Recent new single-familyhousing starts have been in the range of 800,000 to 900,000 and new home sales have fallen well below700,000. Those figures are down by roughly 50% from their respective peak annual figures in 2005.Though the cutbacks are hampering the economy, they have brought down housing inventory. Housingsupply is one of those figures that is usually not in the headlines, but new home inventory has been trendingdown for more than a year. There were 570,000 new homes for sale in the summer of 2007. There were509,000 at end of November.

The near-term forecast continues to point toward weak conditions. NAR’s pending home sales indexremains soft, though it has been essentially flat for the past four months. Will housing demand return solidlyby spring of 2008 — even after we account for the normal higher sales activity in the spring months? It is abit uncertain. On the one hand we have a sizable pent-up demand from 4 million job gains in the past twoyears. On the other hand, we have buyers waiting it out, hoping for lower home prices and lower interestrates. Because of this push and pull on the consumer psyche the forecast has become more uncertain.Improved financial capacity and improved housing affordability will be enticing for some consumers. Yet,other consumers will continue to wait out to see the bottom in housing before making the move.

As to the North Texas MLS serving region, home sales fell 11% in 2007 even though the region added159,700 jobs in the past 24 months. With the stimulative packages of tax cuts and lower interest ratesunderway, the economy will avoid recession. The higher loan limit on FHA and GSE loans will furtherpermit more people to access low interest rate loans. It is possible there could be a quick turnaround to thehousing market. A market timing strategy nearly always brings regrets – bought too early or bought too late.But people who are purchasing for a non-flipping reason of five or more years can be nearly guaranteed thatthey will come out ahead. But, no one should over-extend herself to become a homeowner. It is in noone’s interest to see rising and then falling homeownership rate. It is SUSTAINTABLE homeownership thatbenefits all.

60

Forecast

2007.2 2007.3 2007.4 2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2 2009.3 2007 2008 2009U.S. EconomyAnnual Growth RateReal GDP 3.8 4.9 0.6 1.2 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.2 2.2 2.7Nonfarm Payroll Employment 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.4Consumer Prices 6.0 1.9 4.3 2.4 2.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.9 2.7 1.4Real Disposable Income -0.8 4.5 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.8 3.1 4.7 3.4 3.3 3.1 1.7 3.5Consumer Confidence 110 107 106 91 87 85 85 86 90 92 103 87 92

PercentUnemployment Rate 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.6 5.3 5.2

Interest Rates, PercentFed Funds Rate 5.3 5.1 4.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 5.0 3.0 3.63-Month T-Bill Rate 4.7 4.3 3.4 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.4 2.8 3.5Prime Rate 8.3 8.2 7.5 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.8 8.1 6.0 6.6Corporate Aaa Bond Yield 5.6 5.8 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.2 5.710-Year Government Bond 4.8 4.7 4.3 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 3.9 4.530-Year Government Bond 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.3 4.8

Mortgage Rates, percent30-Year Fixed Rate 6.3 6.6 6.2 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 5.7 6.31-Year Adjustable 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.5 4.9 5.0

National Housing IndicatorsThousandsExisting Single-Family Sales 5,917 5,420 4,957 4,912 4,982 5,637 5,884 5,845 5,530 5,411 5,652 5,380 5,595New Single-Family Sales 855 730 654 641 633 633 643 678 675 703 774 637 685Housing Starts 1,464 1,300 1,151 1,111 1,085 1,075 1,056 1,056 1,051 1,073 1,354 1,082 1,068Single-Family Units 1,166 990 830 791 781 773 752 737 726 748 1,046 774 742Multifamily Units 299 310 321 320 304 302 305 319 325 326 308 307 326Residential Construction* 491 463 433 406 395 392 389 387 385 388 473 396 388

Percent Change -- Year AgoExisting Single-Family Sales -10.7 -13.8 -20.9 -23.5 -15.8 4.0 18.7 19.0 11.0 -4.0 -12.8 -4.8 4.0New Single-Family Sales -21.3 -26.6 -33.7 -24.9 -26.0 -13.3 -1.7 5.8 6.8 11.1 -26.4 -17.7 7.6Housing Starts -21.3 -23.7 -26.0 -23.9 -25.9 -17.3 -8.2 -4.9 -3.1 -0.2 -24.8 -20.1 -1.3Single-Family Units -23.3 -28.9 -32.6 -32.5 -33.0 -21.9 -9.5 -6.8 -7.0 -3.3 -28.6 -26.0 -4.2Multifamily Units -12.4 -0.3 -0.7 10.8 1.7 -2.7 -5.0 -0.1 6.9 8.0 -8.3 -0.2 6.0Residential Construction -16.5 -16.5 -18.3 -19.8 -19.4 -15.4 -10.0 -4.8 -2.5 -1.1 -16.9 -16.4 -1.9

National Home PricesThousands of DollarsExisting Home Prices 223.9 221.2 208.0 200.9 214.9 228.7 216.1 207.8 223.1 237.2 218.9 216.3 223.2New Home Prices 241.0 241.0 231.6 235.7 231.1 242.0 236.2 241.1 240.4 253.1 246.9 236.3 248.2

Percent Change -- Year AgoExisting Home Prices -1.3 -1.7 -5.2 -6.1 -4.0 3.4 3.9 3.4 3.8 3.7 -1.4 -1.2 3.2New Home Prices -2.1 2.0 -5.5 -7.9 -4.1 0.4 2.0 2.3 4.0 4.6 0.2 -4.3 5.0

Local RegionPayroll Jobs (in thousands) 2947.7 2948.9 2979.4 2952.9 2991.9 2996.1 3033.0 3017.9 3066.7 3074.0 2930.5 2993.5 3062.0Home Sales 22181 24198 17759 15440 19497 24440 18540 16104 20335 25295 82740 77917 80887Home Prices (in thousand $) 195.8 203.0 197.2 199.4 198.5 206.3 201.2 204.0 204.1 213.7 198.1 201.8 207.9

Percent Change -- Year AgoJobs 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.1% 2.3%Home Sales -18.2% -4.7% -15.1% -17.0% -12.1% 1.0% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 3.5% -11.1% -5.8% 3.8%Home Prices -2.3% 4.0% 2.9% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% 2.8% 3.6% 1.9% 1.8% 3.0%

Quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates.* Billion dollarsSource: Forecast produced using Macroeconomic Advisers quarterly model of the U.S. economy.Assumptions and simulations by Dr. Lawrence Yun.

Economic and Housing Market Outlook: February 2008

Quarterly

Mortgage Rates The 30-year fixed mortgage rate trended lower inDecember to an average of 6.10%. That is the lowest rate since the peak ofthe housing boom in October 2005. Low mortgage rates are being influencedby continuous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Still, Wall Street is expectingfurther rate cuts early this year to curb a growing fear of recession.

Existing Home Sales registered 5.0 million seasonally adjusted annualizedunits in November – a slight 0.4% increase from October’s pace but 20.0%lower than the pace in November of 2006. The median price of an existingsingle-family home was $210,200 – the first monthly price increase sinceJune. The inventory of existing homes available for sale eased to a 10.3month supply.New Home Sales declined 9% in November to a seasonally adjusted annualrate of 647,000. The pace was 34.4% off that of November of 2006 and thelowest level since the mid-1990s. The inventory of new homes available forsale at the end of November was at a 9.3 months supply. The good news isthat inventory is likely past its peak, and most of the measurable declines insales have already occurred.Housing Starts posted a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.19 millionunits – 3.7% off October’s level and 24.2% below that of November 2006.Looking even further back, the latest data represents a 48% decline from thepace in January 2006. Housing permits, generally a reliable future indicatorhousing starts, fell 1.5% to 1.15 million. Declines are needed due to highinventory. More cutbacks are encouraged to better help stabilize thehousing market.

Employment Job creation was very weak in December, with 18,000 netnew jobs added to the economy. About 150,000 new jobs would beconsidered healthy. The good news: November’s employment figure wasrevised upward to 115,000 and over the past 12 months 1.3 million jobshave been created. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5%, but is still nearhistoric lows.Economic Growth Real gross domestic product – GDP – grew 4.9% inthe third quarter of 2007. This is the third and final “estimate” of GDPgrowth based on more complete data. Growth in exports, personalconsumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, non-residential structures, federal government spending, equipment andsoftware, and state and local government spending helped offset negativegrowth in residential fixed investment.

Housing Affordability dipped ever so slightly in November. NAR’sHousing Affordability Index stood at 119.3 for the month, off fromOctober’s revised reading of 119.4. The lower average 30-year mortgagerate was offset by an increase in the median price of an existing single-family home. Even so, affordability conditions are better compared to ayear ago, when the index was 110.7.

Economic Monitor This table reflects data available throughJanuary 18, 2008.

Dec 07 6.10%Nov 07 6.21%Dec 06 6.14%

Interest rates willremain at nearhistoric lowsthrough the firsthalf of 2008

Monthly IndicatorForecastRecent

Statistics

Likely DirectionOver the Next

Six Months

Nov 07 5,000Oct 07 4,980Nov 06 6,250

Even sales overthe near term andthen beginning torise measurably

Most of the bigdeclines alreadytaken place, butthere could be fewmore rounds ofmodest declines

New homeinventoryhas been fallingbut more isrequired

Job gains, thoughmodest, willcontinue —sustained net jobcuts are unlikely

Very slow growthin the first half of2008 but noeconomicrecession

Rising wages andlow interest ratespush upaffordability

Notes: All rate are seasonally adjusted. New home sales, existing home sales, and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is shown asmonth-to-month change in thousands. Inflation is shown as the month-to-month change in the Consumer Price Index. Sources: NAR, Bureau of theCensus, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association

61

Dec 07 18Nov 07 11012-monthtotal 1.3million

2007:III 4.9%2007:II 3.8%2006:III 1.1%

Nov 07 647Oct 07 711Nov 06 987

Nov 07 1,187Oct 07 1,232Nov 06 1,565

Nov 07 119.3Oct 07 119.4Nov 06 110.7

Economic and Market Watch Report - NTREIS · 2008. 2. 15. · including the Dallas Fort Worth...

Documents

Transcript of Economic and Market Watch Report - NTREIS · 2008. 2. 15. · including the Dallas Fort Worth...