1. Expert Workshop on NAMAs: national mitigation planning and implementation in agriculture.Rome, 16-17 July 2012. CCAFS and FAO.Economic analysis for mitigation alternatives - limits of MACCsJeimar TapascoAndy JarvisLini WollenbergWWW.ciat.cgiar.orgEco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor

2. MAC CurveMcKinsey & Company (2010). Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 3. MEXICOBRASILSource: World Bank (2010) Source: World Bank (2010)UK AgricultureUSASource: OECD (2010) Sorce: Lutsey (2008)Agriculture for the Poor Eco-Efficient 4. MAC Curve for ColombiaWorld Bank and DNP-Energy- Transport- Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 5. Agriculture AgroforestryForestry Annual Perrennial Tree + Crops LivestockNaturalPlantation or/and LivestockEfficient Oil PalmCommercialFertilizationSilvopastoral SystemsForestry(Case Study:PlantationsRice)PastureRubber PlantationsImprovementREDD+Conversionof PasturestoFruit TreePlantationsCropsin CacaoNutritionalHistosolsComplementsLow-CarbonEcologicalAgriculturalRestorationPractices Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 6. Abatement Potential Cost-potential areaeffectivenessIntervention alternative (thousands evaluated(US$/tCO2eq) of(ha)Min MaxtCO2eq/year)Commercial Forestry44,037 4,000,000-4,4-2,7PlantationsIntensive Silvopastoral (ISS) 3.739.109-490.6Projects 43.819Avoided Deforestation65,874 2,250,000-0.2-0.2(REDD Projects)Conversion of Pastures to 1,938 359,320 -188 -25Fruit ProductionRubber Plantations 1,786 260,000 -1,05 -0,67Efficient Use of Fertilizers38 170,000 -267 145Pasture Improvement 5451,487 -103 -62 Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 7. MAC Curve - Aggregate13030MAC: US$/tCO2(70) (170) (270) -10,00020,00030,00040,000 Thousand tonnes of carbon saved/year Rice Casanare (Irrigation) Rice Valledupar Mango Huila Small Mango Huila Large Avoca.Tolima Medium Avoca. Tolima LargeMango Cundinamarca SmallAvoca. Huila Medium Avoca. Huila LargeMango Cundinamarca Large Rice TolimaImprove Pasture MetaRice Casanare Mango Cundinamarca Medium Mango Boyaca Small Improve Pasture Casanare Mango Tolima SmallRice Meta Improve Pasture AraucaMango Tolima Large Avoca. Risaralda Large Avoca. Antioquia Medium Avoca. Quindio LargeSSPi Bajo-Cauca (Antioquia) Avoca. Risaralda Small Avoca. Quindio Small Avoca. Caldas Large Mango Boyaca LargeAvoca. Antioquia LargeAvoca. Risaralda Medium Avoca. Caldas SmallAvoca. Quindio Medium Mango Antioquia Large Avoca. Antioquia SmallMango Boyaca Medium Mango Antioquia SmallAvoca. Caldas MediumRice Guaranda y Nechi SSPi Eastern -Antioquia rest of the country (CIPAV) SSPi Crdoba SSPi AtlanticoSSPi SucreSSPi Uraba-AntioquiaSSPi Northeast - Antioquia Rice Jamundi Rice CucutaEco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 8. CAUTION!!Economic tools must beappropriate forthe problem at hand. Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 9. Overview of selected key limitations of the cost/supplycurve method* Negative costs (Not all cots were included) Strong focus on costs as selection criteria (there are other criteria) It does not include environmental and social benefit and costs Economic and technological uncertainty inherent to predicting the future Strong level of aggregation of the databases used High sensitivity relative to baseline assumptions (future) Ignoring interdependencies between measures High sensitivity to (uncertain) emission factor assumptions*Fischedick et al. 2011. Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 10. MAC Curve global GHG beyond business as usual 2030Source: McKinsey & Company (2010) Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 11. Top priorities according to MAC curveCarbon saved (tCO2e/year) Cost (benefit) US$IndividualIndividualPriority MeasureUS$/tCO2eMeasureAggregateMeasureAggregate1 Rice Casanare (Irrigation)(267.2) 2,075 2,075 (554,465) (554,465)2 Rice Valledupar (202.0)3212,397(64,923) (619,388)3 Mango Huila Small (188.2) 11,51913,916(2,168,430)(2,787,819)4 Mango Huila Large (158.4) 46,29660,212(7,332,158) (10,119,977)5 Avoca.Tolima Medium (138.1)212,958 273,170 (29,412,260) (39,532,237)Least priorities according to MAC curve Carbon saved (tCO2e/year)Cost (benefit) US$ IndividualIndividualPriority Measure US$/tCO2e Measure Aggregate Measure Aggregate43 SSPi Uraba-Antioquia(0.6)898,966 898,966(537,857) (537,857)42 SSPi Sucre(2.6) 1,831,998 2,730,964(4,699,801) (5,237,657)41 SSPi Atlantico(3.4)596,7113,327,675(2,042,915) (7,280,572)40 SSPi Crdoba(4.5) 3,747,996 7,075,671(16,882,013)(24,162,585)39 SSPi Eastern -Antioquia (8.5) 2,019,716 9,095,387(17,218,786)(41,381,371) Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 12. Conclusions There are a large number of potential mitigationoptions that could be implemented at the nationallevel, with highly varying degrees of emissionsreductions, and associated costs for implementationEco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 13. . Clear goals shouldbe set with anyemissions reductionplan or strategy,and these goals canthen be used ascriterion forprioritization Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 14. MAC curves are a useful input toevaluating priority interventions,but.should be interpreted withcaution.Incorrect use of the MAC curve forselecting interventions could lead tofailure to prioritize the mostappropriate interventions.Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 15. Private perspectivePublicperspectiveEco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 16. Biophysical efficiency (kg meat)Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 17. Biophysical efficiency (ha) Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 18. Time constrainsEco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 19. Thanks!Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 20. Business as usual: Agriculture (Colombia) Business as usual: Livestock (Colombia)Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 21. Cost (benefit) -1.000.000-1.000.000Carbon capture1 1.000.000Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 22. Figure 1 - Effect of the emission reduction amount on the cost-effectiveness value.Figure 1a - CEA value against different levels of emission reductionand a constant cost.Figure 1b - Representation of a cost-effectiveness curveEco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 23. Figure 2 - Effect of the emission reduction amount on the cost-effectiveness value.Figure 2a - CEA value against different levels of emission reductionand a constant cost.Figure 1b - Representation of a cost-effectiveness curveEco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 24. MAC Curve: Silvopastoral Systems Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 25. MAC Curve: Improved Pastures Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 26. MAC Curve: Efficiency of Fertilizer Use in Rice Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor 27. MAC Curve: Mango and Avocado Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor