Ecological Security Lec.3
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Transcript of Ecological Security Lec.3
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LECTURE :3
CHARACTERISTICS OF SUSTAINABLE
SYSTEMSUnited Nations University
Institute for Sustainability and Peace
Dr. Srikantha Herath
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OUTLINE
Integrating systems analysis and sustainability
Sustainable Environmental Systems
Water, Energy and Material Cycles Why water?
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ASYSTEM
Set of detailed methods, procedures, and
routines established or formulated to carry out aspecific activity, perform a duty, or solve a
problem.
Organized, purposeful structure regarded as a
'whole' consisting of interrelated and
interdependent elements(components, entities,factors, members, parts etc.). These elements
continually influence one another(directly orindirectly) to maintain their activity and theexistence of the system, in order to achieve the
common purpose the 'goal' of the system.3
Business Directory
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SYSTEMANALYSIS
Behavior of a system is defined by the way its
components interact. System analysis is toreconstruct this behavior by breaking system
into components and understanding theircausal relations.
This analysis can be done experimentally or bycomputer models.
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TYPES OF SYSTEMS
Linear models: Open systems
Static: Does not change with time
Dynamic: Variables and relations may change
over time
Feedback: Response to an action
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COMPONENTS OF A SYSTEM
Interrelations oftheory, experience
and data with the
tasks of statistical,
simulation and
optimization
modelling towards
improved
recommendations for
natural resourcemanagement. (ref:Handbook on the Modelling
of Dynamic Change in
Ecosystems) 6
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SYSTEMMODELING
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Subsurface
Groundwater
Sea
EvaporationRain
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MODELING PROCESS
Problem formulation Concept
System domain
Flow and storage
Observation (reference) Model construction
Diagram to code
Parameters
Sensitivity Calibration and Validation
Model Use Scenario analysis
Back casting and forecasting8
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ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSION
Ecosystem services: Providing vital goods nd
services to humans and other organisms.
Sustainable ecology sustainable yield from renewables;
renewable substitutes for non-renewable resources;
capacity of the environment can absorb waste;
How do we maintain healthy ecosystemservices?
Managing consumption, improving production
systems and use of resources. Based on information
from economics
Environmental management. A direct approach
based on a knowledge of environment, earth and
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SUSTAINABILITY
What are the characteristics of a sustainable
system?
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CYCLICCHARACTER
For a system to be sustainable, it should operate
without depleting the available resources - forthe present and future
If there is no resource depletion - recyclethrough cycles
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WHAT ARE THE IMPORTANTCYCLES
Energy
Biogeochemical
Critical global biogeochemical cycles water
oxygen
carbon
nitrogen phosphorus
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ENERGY BALANCE
Of the total energy that reaches the earth ....
6% is reflected by atmosphere
16% is absorbed by atmosphere
20% is reflected by clouds
3% is absorbed by clouds
51% is absorbed by oceans and land
4% is reflected by the surface of the earth Of the energy that remains in the earth (absorbed by atmosphere,
clouds, and earths surface)
64% is radiated out into the space (atmosphere and clouds)
6% is radiated directly into the space by earths surface
7% is utilized in the movement of air
23% is utilized in evaporation of water from earths surface
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http://users/Srikantha/UNU/ISP/gradProgram/APU-2010/images/energyBalance/animation3.swfhttp://users/Srikantha/UNU/ISP/gradProgram/APU-2010/images/energyBalance/animation3.swf -
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GLOBAL ENERGY CYCLE
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CLIMATE CHANGE:GLOBAL WARMING
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NITROGEN CYCLE
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Source:
EPA
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CARBONCYCLE
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Source:
NASA
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WATER CYCLE
Earth
Sky
Image:NOAA
Water Circulates in
Atmosphere, surfaceand ground
We do not lose water itis in transition
Average time of stay
Atmosphere
Tr = 12,900/577,000
= 8.2 days
Rivers = 17 days
Ground water 10,000years
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FOOD SECURITY ANDWATER SECURITY
Over the period to 2050 the
world's water will have tosupport the agr icultural
systems that will feed and
create livelihoods for anadditional 2.7 billion people.
Source: FAO
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changepredicts yields from rain-dependent agriculture
could be down by 50 percent by 2020.