NGO CEINGO CEI

Center for Environmental InnovationsCenter for Environmental Innovations

December 1—2, 2011

EU – Russia Air Transport:

Today and Tomorrow

Brussels

Ecological safety of Russia and aviation emissions

www.ngo-cei.ru

www.forest-climate.ru

President of the NGO CEI,PhD, docent of the Department of

Economics of the MSUStetsenko Andrey V.

NGO CEINGO CEI ClimateClimate, , international arrangementsinternational arrangements

• Annex 1 countries should reduce emissions by 25-40% below 1990 by 2020

• The G8 (2008) agreed to reduce emissions by 50% by 2050• At COP 15 in Copenhagen President Dmitry Medvedev

said Russia would ratify the next climate agreement under two conditions:

• All countries of the World will participate• Forests will be adequately included

NGO CEINGO CEI

Russia has a great potential of the

forest CO2 absorption

* The Russian Federation National Inventory Report of Anthropogenic Emissions and Absorption by Sink of Greenhouse Gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol,1990 - 2009

** Olson I.S., Watts I.A., Allison I.Y. Carbon in the live vegetation of major World ecosystems. Oak Ridge Nat.Lab. E.S.D., 1983. Publ. 1997. 164 pp

*** The carbon cycle in Russia / ed. G.А.Zavarzin. М.: 1999

Area of forests - 553.3 mln ha

Timber resources - 61.1 bln m3

Carbon reserves in the Russian

forests* - 97.1 mln tons

Increase in the World, C/year ** - 60.2 mln tons

Increase in the Russian ecosystems, C/year *** ≈ 4,5-5 bln tons

Increase in the Russian forests, C/year- 0.332 bln tons

NGO CEINGO CEI The annual volume of the global carbon market (billion tons of CO2)

Source: Point Carbon

Russian JI 2011

33 projects totaling 60 mln tons of

C02-eqv

Without Forest Projects!

Others

JI projects

CDM

Eur. Trade System

Th

e a

nn

ua

l vo

lum

e o

f the

glo

ba

l ca

rbo

n m

ark

et

(billio

n to

ns

of C

O2

)

NGO CEINGO CEI

At whose account can be planted forests?At whose account can be planted forests?

• Aviation emissions will grow by 2-9% till 2050!Ways forward:

• Purchase reduction,• Investment in carbon

projects

5

Source: IPCC report. Global CO2 emissions from aviation:Rapid growth in most of scenarios!

ExampleExample - - Aviation Aviation ::

• It’s necessary to make possible the investment attracting to the forest in the Post - Kyoto

NGO CEINGO CEI

СО2

Economic Mechanism of JI, Article 3.3 of Kyoto Protocol

Financial credit

documents, confirming the

compensation of СО2 emissions

NGO CEINGO CEI

Commercial Opportunities onKyoto Protocol to Russia

First budget period

1990

2,0

2000 2008 2012 2017

3,0

2,5

1995 2020

b

ln t

on

sС

О2

СО2 Emission

СО2 Emissionunder JI projects

Opportunity to register carbon sink in the forest

~ 605 mln t СО2 Surplus quotas is a basis for the «Green Investment

Scheme »3-4 bln t СО2

A part of quotas is for JI projects

~ 300 mln t СО2

Basic level (100% of 1990)

Emission management is a basis for the internal quotas

trade 10-12 bln t СО2

605 mln tons CO2 * 10 Euro = 6 bln Euro

NGO CEINGO CEI

Increase in the Russian forests, C/yearIncrease in the Russian forests, C/year

Region 2008Мt С year-1

2009Мt С year-1

2010Мt С year-1

TotalМt С year-1

Or Мt СО2

Altai 2.2 2.9 3 8.2 30

Irkutsk 13.7 14.2 15 42.9 157.5

Sakhalin 1.2 2.1 2 5.5 20

Kamchatka -0.5 -0.3 1.3 0.6 2.3

NGO CEINGO CEI

Increase in the Russian forestsIncrease in the Russian forests

NGO CEINGO CEI

Territorial levels of GIS

Global level All-Russian level Regional level Local level

Adaptation of the slide from Cosmos

Accuracy improvement Reduced labor costs Increase in labor productivity

NGO CEINGO CEI

International Climate Negotiations

It is necessary to strengthen the Russian forest case at the next

UN COP 17

Pilot Forest ProjectsAllies: USA, EU: Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Finland

Allies : Developing countries - RRED

NGO CEINGO CEI

Center for Environmental InnovationsCenter for Environmental Innovations

Thank you for attention!

www.ngo-cei.ru

www.forest-climate.ru

+7-926-911-0514

Stetsenko Andrey V.

December 1—2, 2011

EU – Russia Air Transport:

Today and Tomorrow

Brussels