79th EUROCONSTRUCT Summary Report

79th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference 11-12 June 2015, Warsaw 79th

European Con�ru�ion: Market Trends until 2017

HONOR A RY PAT RON:

© EUROCONSTRUCT, November 2014

79th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference 11–12 June 2015, Warsaw

European Con�ru�ion: Market Trends until 2017

79th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference 11–12 June 2015, Warsaw

79th EUROCONSTRUCT Summary Report

All rights reserved © EUROCONSTRUCT, June 2015

Reproduction or distribution of all or parts of the report is strictly forbidden without the prior written authority from PAB-PCR&F Institute, acting on behalf of the EUROCONSTRUCT network.

EUROCONSTRUCT ® is a registered trademark.

The report is provided for informational purposes only and without any obligation, whether contractual or otherwise. No warrantyor representation is made as to the correctness, completenessand accuracy of the information supplied or the forecasts made.

This Country Report has been written and preparedby the EUROCONSTRUCT network from the country reportsof the 19 EUROCONSTRUCT member institutes.

Design by FARM Studio (farm.co.hu)

Editing by Buildecon (buildecon.com) and DigiNyomda (diginyomda.hu)

Table Of Contents

The EUROCONSTRUCT Network

Macroeconomic outlook

Forecast Tables

Residential market

Forecast Tables

Non-residential market

Forecast Tables

Civil engineering market

Forecast Tables

Construction market overview

Forecast Tables

Methodological notes and definitions

Member Institutes

4

7

12

25

41

49

60

71

81

93

104

121

151

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The EUROCONSTRUCT Network

AT

BECZ

DK

FI

FR

DE

HU

IE

IT

NL

NO

PL

PT

SK

ES

SE

CH

UK

Austria [AT] – WIFO

Belgium [BE] – Aquiec-Vkebi

Czech Republic [CZ] – ÚRS PRAHA

Denmark [DK] – CIFS

Finland [FI] – Forecon

France [FR] – BIPE

Germany [GE] – Ifo

Hungary [HU] – BUILDECON

Ireland [IE] – DKM

Italy [IT] – CRESME

Netherlands [NL] – EIB

Norway [NO] – Prognosesenteret AS

Poland [PL] – PAB-PCR&F

Portugal [PT] – ITIC

Slovakia [SK] – ÚEOS

Spain [ES]– ITeC

Sweden [SE] – Prognoscentret AB

Switzerland [CH] – KOF ETH

United Kingdom [UK] – EXPERIAN

5

European Construction Business Research And Forecasting Group

www.euroconstruct.org

EUROCONSTRUCT ® is a registered trademark.

EUROCONSTRUCT was set up in 1974 by specialised research organisations from Belgium, France, Ger-many, Italy, the Netherlands and United Kingdom as a study group for construction analysis and fore-casting. It has since expanded from the core group to include almost all Western European countries, as well as 4 Central Eastern European countries. At present, EUROCONSTRUCT has member institutes in 19 European countries.

EUROCONSTRUCT‘s objective is to provide decision makers in the construction sector and other to the construction industry related markets with infor-mation, analyses and forecasts to enable them to plan their business better and more effectively. Fur-thermore, the activities of the EUROCONSTRUCT network addresses to official institutions like min-istries or agencies and to national and international associations.

Construction markets are regional or even local. It is, therefore, a great advantage that the analyses and forecasts for these markets are prepared within the EUROCONSTRUCT network by competent national institutes for their respective home markets.

EUROCONSTRUCT‘s research and advice focuses on:• Short and medium-term macro-economic fore-

casts and construction trends in Europe;• Analyses of structural changes, business strate-

gies and competition in the construction industry;• Market studies for industrial goods and services

used by the building and infrastructure sectors.• EUROCONSTRUCT‘s research and forecasts are

designed to meet the needs of many types of busi-ness including:

• Construction contractors and developers; housing associations;

• Manufacturers and traders supplying construction materials, products, equipment and machines; architects and other construction professionals;

• Insurances, banks, financial and credit institu-tions; fund managers and other investors; gov-ernment departments and national agencies; industry associations;

• The Commission of the European Community and other European organisations.

Each country member of EUROCONSTRUCT has the project management resources to offer their cus-tomers turnkey studies of pan-European scope.

They can guarantee:• Specific know-how and experience in database

research and consulting;• A consistent multinational approach;• Expertise in project co-ordination and quality con-

trol;• Reports in the languages of the customer‘s choice.• Twice a year, EUROCONSTRUCT organises an

international conference on:• Forecasts for the main market segments (housing,

non-residential construction, infrastructure and civil engineering, all sub-sectors with a break-down in new work and renovation/ modernisa-tion activities) in the EUROCONSTRUCT member countries;

• A special issue selected for its impact on the construction industry (e.g. demographics, pri-vatisation, lifestyles, technological change, internationalisation of strategies, changes in the demand and supply structure).

Recent and forthcoming conference venues:• Winter 2013 Prague (Czech Republic)• Summer 2014 Oslo (Norway)• Winter 2014 Milan (Italy)• Summer 2015 Warsaw (Poland)• Winter 2015 Budapest (Hungary)• Summer 2016 Dublin (Ireland)

In addition, EUROCONSTRUCT offers special studies for selected national and international clients based on well-founded knowledge of databases, methods, correlations and measures.

For details, please contact the EUROCONSTRUCT partner institute in your country.

79th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference 11–12 June 2015, Warsaw

7

Macroeconomic outlook

Mariusz SochackiSochacki@polishconstruction.waw.plTel: +48 602 791 976

PAB-PCR&F Institutewww.euroconstruct.pl

8

© EUROCONSTRUCT, June 2015 Macroeconomic outlook

Global perspectives

Global economic activity remained moderate in 2014, while business conditions continued to vary significantly across countries.

Strong recovery was sustained in the United States, supported by expansionary monetary policy and a fading drag from fiscal tightening.

In contrast, the Euro area economic growth remained sluggish, adversely affected by the struc-tural problems faced by some member countries, such as persistently high debt levels and related decline in lending.

The global economy remains on a gradual recovery path. The world economy grew by about 3.6% in 2014 (excluding the Euro area).

In the latest Economic Outlook by ECB, the world real GDP is projected to increase over the projection horizon, rising from 3.8% in 2015 to slightly above 4% in the period 2016-17.

The global outlook is being shaped by a number of supportive factors, including:• a significant decline in oil prices, which should

have an overall positive impact on the global eco-nomic activity,

• an ongoing sustained recovery and a robust out-look in the United States,

• expected diminishing of the unemployment rate.

However, some adverse factors also exist, such as:• the repercussions of the double shock – economic

sanctions and the fall in oil prices – for the Rus-sian economy;

• the sharp movements in financial markets, partly due to increasingly divergent monetary policies; and

• the disappointing growth rate of some emerging market economies of BRIICS (Brasil, Rusia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa), leading to downward revisions of their potential growth.

Reflecting the factors shaping the global outlook, the global recovery is characterised by uneven devel-opments among both the advanced and emerg-ing market economies. Advanced economies will continue to benefit from diminishing headwinds, including waning deleveraging, a moderating fis-cal drag and improving situation on the labour markets, while unaddressed structural challenges and the tightening of financial conditions will still weigh on growth in emerging market economies.

Source: IMF Economic Outlook April 2015

Source: IMF Economic Outlook April 2015