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    Columbia

    teachers

    College

    Educational

    IReprints

    '

    Wo.

    3

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    MEMORY

    A

    CONTRIBUTION

    TO

    EXPERIMENTAL

    PSYCHOLOGY

    BY

    HERMANN

    EBBINGHAUS

    PRIVAT

    DOCENT

    IN

    PHILOSOPHY

    AT THE

    UNIVERSITY

    OF

    BERLIN

    (1885)

    De

    subjecto

    vetustissimo

    novissimam

    promovemus

    scienttam

    TRANSLATED

    BY

    HENRY A.

    RUGER,

    Pn.D.

    ASSISTANT

    PROFESSOR

    OF

    EDUCATIONAL

    PSYCHOLOGY,

    TEACHERS

    COLLEGE,

    COLUMBIA

    UNIVERSITY

    AND

    CLARA

    E.

    BUSSENIUS

    PUBLISHED BY

    flfolkgr,

    Ctttmbte

    Ihmir

    rmti;

    NEW

    YORK CITY

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    Lb

    i

    06,3

    602497

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    TRANSLATORS'

    INTRODUCTION

    The

    publication

    by

    Ebbinghaus

    of

    the results

    of

    his

    experi-

    mental

    investigation

    of

    memory (1885)

    marks the

    application

    of

    precise

    scientific method to the

    study

    of the

    higher

    mental

    pro-

    cesses.

    By

    his

    invention

    of nonsense

    syllables

    as

    the

    material

    to

    be

    thus

    employed

    Ebbinghaus

    signalised

    the

    growing

    independ-

    ence

    of

    experimental

    psychology

    from

    physics

    and

    physiology.

    For

    educational

    psychology

    his

    work

    is

    of

    especial importance

    because the

    field

    in

    which

    he

    worked

    was

    that

    of the

    ideational

    processes

    and because

    the

    problems

    which

    he

    attacked

    were

    functional

    and

    dynamic.

    The

    problem

    of

    the

    most

    efficient

    dis-

    tribution of

    repetitions

    in

    committing

    material

    to

    memory

    may

    be

    taken

    to

    illustrate

    the

    identity

    in

    the

    nature

    of

    the questions

    investigated

    by

    him and

    those

    of

    especial

    interest to

    us

    to-day.

    Despite

    the

    fact

    that his

    experiments

    were

    performed

    only

    on

    himself and

    that the

    numerical

    results

    obtained

    are

    consequently

    limited

    in

    significance,

    his

    work

    stands

    as an

    embodiment of

    the

    essentials

    of scientific

    method.

    On account of

    its historical

    importance

    and

    also

    because

    of its

    intrinsic

    relation

    to

    present

    day

    problems

    and

    methods

    Ebbinghaus's

    investigation

    should

    be

    known as

    directly

    as

    possible

    by

    all

    serious students

    of

    psy-

    chology.

    To

    facilitate

    this

    acquaintance

    is

    the

    purpose

    of this

    translation.

    The

    translators

    wish

    to

    acknowledge

    their

    indebtedness to

    Professors Edward

    L.

    Thorndike,

    Robert S.

    Woodworth,

    and

    E.

    W.

    Bagster-Collins

    of Columbia

    University,

    to

    Professor

    Walter

    Dill

    Scott

    of

    Northwestern

    University

    and

    to

    Mrs. H.

    A.

    Ruger

    for

    assistance

    in

    revising manuscript

    and

    proof.

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    AUTHOR'S

    PREFACE

    In

    the

    realm of mental

    phenomena,

    experiment

    and measure-

    i

    ment

    have

    hitherto been

    chiefly

    limited

    in

    application

    to

    sense

    perception

    and

    to

    the

    time relations

    of mental

    processes.

    By

    means

    of

    the

    following

    investigations

    we

    have

    tried to

    go

    a

    step

    farther

    into

    the

    workings

    of

    the

    mind

    and

    to

    submit

    to

    an

    experimental

    and

    quantitative

    treatment

    the

    manifestations

    of

    memory.

    The

    term,

    memory,

    is

    to

    be

    taken

    here

    in its

    broadest

    sense,

    including Learning,

    Retention,

    Association

    and

    Repro-

    duction.

    The

    principal objections

    which,

    as a

    matter of

    course,

    rise

    against

    the

    possibility

    of

    such

    a

    treatment are

    discussed

    in

    detail in

    the

    text

    and

    in

    part

    have

    been

    made

    objects

    of

    investi-

    gation.

    I

    may

    therefore ask those

    who are

    not

    already

    convinced

    a

    priori

    of

    the

    impossibility

    of

    such an

    attempt

    to

    postpone

    their

    decision about its

    practicability.

    The

    author

    will be

    pardoned

    the

    publication

    of

    preliminary

    results

    in

    view

    of the

    difficulty

    of

    the

    subject

    investigated

    and

    the

    time-consuming

    character of

    the

    tests.

    Justice

    demands

    that the

    many

    defects

    due

    to

    incompleteness

    shall

    not be

    raised

    as

    objections

    against

    such

    results. The

    tests

    were all made

    upon

    myself

    and have

    primarily

    only

    individual

    significance.

    Naturally

    they

    will not

    reflect

    exclusively

    mere

    idiosyncrasies

    of

    my

    mental

    organisation;

    if the

    absolute

    values

    found

    are

    throughout

    only

    individual,

    yet

    many

    a

    relation

    of

    general

    validity

    will

    be

    found

    in

    the

    relation

    of

    these numbers

    to

    each

    other

    or

    in

    the

    relations

    of

    the

    relations.

    But

    where

    this

    is the case

    and

    where

    it is

    not,

    I

    can

    hope

    to

    decide

    only

    after

    finishing

    the

    further

    and

    comparative experiments

    with

    which

    I

    am

    occupied.

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    TABLE

    OF CONTENTS

    Chapter

    Page

    Preface

    .

    .

    .

    v

    I.

    OUR

    KNOWLEDGE

    CONCERNING MEMORY

    ....

    i

    Section i.

    Memory

    in

    its

    Effects

    i

    2.

    Memory

    in

    its

    Dependence

    ....

    3

    3.

    Deficiencies

    in

    our

    Knowledge

    concerning

    Memory

    .......

    4

    II.

    THE

    POSSIBILITY

    OF ENLARGING OUR

    KNOWLEDGE OF

    MEMORY

    7

    Section

    4.

    The

    Method

    of Natural

    Science

    ...

    7

    5.

    The

    Introduction

    of

    Numerical

    Measurements

    for

    Memory

    Contents

    .....

    8

    6.

    The

    Possibility

    of

    Maintaining

    the

    Constancy

    of Conditions

    Requisite

    for

    Research

    .

    .

    it

    7.

    Constant

    Averages

    .

    .

    . . .

    12

    8.

    The

    Law

    of

    Errors

    15

    9.

    Resume

    . .

    . .

    . .

    .

    .

    19

    10.

    The

    Probable Error

    30

    III.

    THE

    METHOD

    OF

    INVESTIGATION .

    . . .

    . .

    22

    Section n.

    Series of

    Nonsense

    Syllables

    23

    12.

    Advantages

    of

    the

    Material

    .

    .

    .

    .

    23

    13.

    Establishment

    of

    the

    Most Constant

    Experi-

    mental

    Conditions

    Possible

    .

    .

    . .

    24

    14.

    Sources

    of Error

    26

    15.

    Measurement

    of

    Work

    Required

    ...

    30

    16. Periods

    of

    the

    Tests

    33

    IV. THE

    UTILITY OF THE

    AVERAGES

    OBTAINED

    . . .

    .

    34

    Section

    17.

    Grouping

    of the

    Results

    of the

    Tests

    . .

    34

    18.

    Grouping

    of

    the

    Results of

    the

    Separate

    Series

    41

    V.

    RAPIDITY

    OF

    LEARNING

    SERIES

    OF

    SYLLABLES

    AS

    A

    FUNCTION

    \/

    OF

    THEIR

    LENGTH

    .......

    46

    Section

    19.

    Tests

    Belonging

    to

    the Later

    Period . .

    46

    20.

    Tests

    Belonging

    to

    the

    Earlier

    Period

    .

    .

    49

    21.

    Increase

    in

    Rapidity

    of

    Learning

    in

    the

    Case

    of

    Meaningful

    Material

    ....

    50

    VI.

    RETENTION

    AS

    A

    FUNCTION OF

    THE

    NUMBER

    OF

    REPETITIONS

    52

    ^

    Section

    22.

    Statement

    of

    the

    Problem

    .

    . . .

    52

    23.

    The

    Tests

    and

    their

    Results ....

    54

    24.

    The

    Influence

    of

    Recollection

    .

    .

    .

    58

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    viii

    Table

    of

    Contents

    Chapter

    Page

    VII. RETENTION

    AND

    OBLIVISCENCE

    AS

    A

    FUNCTION

    OF

    THE

    TIME

    62

    Section

    26.

    Explanations

    of

    Retention and Obliviscence

    .

    62

    27.

    Methods

    of

    Investigation

    of

    Actual Conditions

    65

    28. Results

    67

    29.

    Discussion

    of

    Results .....

    76

    30.

    Control

    Tests

    79

    VIII.

    RETENTION

    AS

    A

    FUNCTION OF

    REPEATED

    LEARNING .

    .

    81

    Section

    31.

    Statement

    of the

    Problem and the

    Investigation

    81

    32.

    Influence of the

    Length

    of

    the

    Series

    .

    .

    84

    33.

    Influence

    of

    Repeated

    Learning

    ...

    85

    34.

    Influence

    of

    the

    Separate

    Repetitions

    . .

    87

    IRRETENTION

    AS

    A FUNCTION

    OF

    THE

    ORDER

    OF

    SUCCESSION OF

    THE

    MEMBERS

    OF THE

    SERIES

    .....

    90

    Section

    35.

    Association

    according

    to

    Temporal

    Sequence

    and

    its

    Explanation

    .....

    90

    36.

    Methods

    of

    Investigation

    of

    Actual

    Behavior

    95

    37.

    Results.

    Associations

    of

    Indirect

    Sequence

    .

    99

    38.

    Experiments

    with

    Exclusion of

    Knowledge

    .

    101

    39.

    Discussion

    of

    Results

    .....

    106

    40.

    Reverse

    Associations

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .no

    41.

    The

    Dependence

    of

    Associations

    of

    Indirect

    Sequence

    upon

    the

    Number of

    Repetitions

    .

    114

    42.

    Indirect

    Strengthening

    of

    Associations

    .

    .

    117

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    MEMORY

    CHAPTER

    I

    Section

    i.

    Memory

    in

    its

    Effects

    The

    language

    of

    life

    as well

    as of

    science

    in

    attributing

    a

    memory

    to

    the

    mind

    attempts

    to

    point

    out the facts

    and their

    interpretation

    somewhat

    as

    follows:

    Mental states of

    every

    kind,

    sensations,

    feelings,

    .

    ideas,

    {

    which

    were

    at one

    time

    present

    Jn

    consciousness

    and

    then

    have

    .

    disappeared

    from

    it.

    have

    not with

    their

    disappearance

    absolutely

    ceased

    to exist.

    Although

    the

    inwardly-turned

    look

    may

    no

    longer

    be

    able to

    find

    them,

    nevertheless

    they

    have not

    been

    utterly

    destroyed

    and

    annulled,

    but in a certain

    manner

    they,

    continue to

    exfet,

    sjoreiTul^jro

    to

    speak,

    .in.

    the

    memory.

    We

    cannot^of

    course,

    directly

    observe_their

    present

    existence,

    but

    it

    is

    revealed

    by

    the effects

    which

    come

    to

    our

    knowledge

    with

    a

    certainty

    like

    that

    with

    which

    we

    infer

    the existence

    of

    the

    stars

    below

    the

    horizon.

    These

    effects

    are of different

    kinds.

    In

    a

    first

    group

    of

    cases we can call

    back

    into

    conscious-

    ness

    by

    an

    exertion of

    the

    will

    directed to this

    purpose

    the

    seemingly

    lost

    states

    (or,

    indeed,

    in

    case these

    consisted

    in

    imme-

    diate

    sense-perceptions,

    we

    can

    recall

    their

    true

    memory

    images)

    :

    that

    is,

    we can

    reproduce

    them

    voluntarily. During

    attempts

    of

    this

    sort,

    that

    is,

    attempts

    to

    recollect

    all

    sorts

    of

    images

    toward

    which

    our

    aim

    was

    not

    directed,

    accompany

    the

    desired

    images

    to

    the

    light

    of

    consciousness.

    Often,

    indeed,

    the

    latter

    entirely

    miss

    the

    goal,

    but as

    a

    general thing

    among

    the

    repre-

    ^

    sentations is

    found

    the

    one

    which we

    sought,

    and

    it

    is imme-

    \

    diately

    recognised

    as

    something

    formerly

    experienced.

    It

    would

    be

    absurd

    to

    suppose

    that

    our will has created

    it

    anew

    and,

    as

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    2

    Memory

    or

    somewhere.

    The

    will,

    so

    to

    speak,

    has

    only

    discovered

    it

    and

    brought

    it to

    us

    again.

    In

    a

    second

    group

    of

    cases

    this

    survival

    is

    even

    more

    striking.

    Often,

    even

    after

    years,

    mental

    states

    once

    present

    in

    conscious-

    ness

    return

    to

    it

    with

    apparent

    spontaneity

    and

    without

    any

    act

    of

    the

    will;

    that

    is,

    they

    are

    reproduced^

    involuntarily.

    Here,

    also,

    in the

    majority

    of

    cases

    we

    at once

    recognise

    the

    returned

    mental

    state

    as

    one

    that

    has

    already

    been

    experienced;

    that

    is,

    we

    remember

    it.

    Under

    certain

    conditions,

    however,

    this

    ac-

    companying

    consciousness

    is

    lacking,

    and

    we

    know

    only

    indi-

    rectly

    that the

    now

    must

    be identical

    with

    the

    then

    ;

    yet

    we

    receive

    in

    this

    way

    a

    no

    less

    valid

    proof

    for

    its existence

    during

    the

    intervening

    time.

    As more

    exact

    observation

    teaches

    us,

    the

    occurrence

    of

    these

    involuntary

    reproductions

    is

    not

    an

    entirely

    random

    and

    accidental

    one.

    On the

    contrary

    they

    are

    j^

    brought

    about

    through

    the

    instrumentality

    of

    other,

    immediately

    present

    mental

    images.

    Moreover

    they

    occur

    in

    certain

    regular

    ways

    which

    in

    general

    terrns

    are

    described

    under

    the

    so-called

    ffrAlaws

    of

    association^

    Finally

    there

    is

    a

    third

    and

    large group

    to

    be

    reckoned

    with

    here.

    The vanished

    mental

    states

    give

    indubitable

    proof

    of

    their

    continuing

    existence

    .even

    if

    they

    themselves

    do

    not

    return to

    V

    consciousness

    at

    all,

    or at least

    not

    exactly

    at

    the

    given

    time.

    Employment

    of a

    certain

    range

    of

    thought

    facilitates

    under

    cer-,

    tain

    conditions the

    employment

    of

    a

    similar

    range

    of

    thought,

    even

    if

    the

    former

    does

    not

    come

    before the mind

    directly

    either

    in

    its

    methods

    or in

    its

    results.

    The

    boundless

    domain

    of

    the

    \

    effect

    of

    accumulated

    experiences

    belongs

    here.

    This

    effect

    results

    from

    the

    frequent

    conscious

    occurrence

    of

    any

    condi-

    tion or

    process,

    and

    consists in

    facilitating

    the

    occurrence

    and

    progress

    of

    similar

    processes.

    This

    effect

    is

    not

    fettered

    by

    the

    condition

    that

    the

    factors

    constituting

    the

    experience

    shall

    return

    in

    toto

    to

    consciousness.

    This

    may

    incidentally

    be the

    case

    with

    a

    part

    of

    them;

    it

    must

    not

    happen

    to

    a

    too

    great

    extent

    and

    with

    too

    great

    clearness,

    otherwise

    the

    course of

    the

    present

    process

    will

    immediately

    be

    disturbed.

    Most of

    these

    experiences

    remain

    concealed

    from

    consciousness

    and

    yet pro-

    duce an

    effect

    which

    is

    significant

    and

    which

    authenticates

    their

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    Our

    Knowledge

    Concerning

    Memory

    3

    Section

    2.

    Memory

    in

    its

    Dependence

    Along'

    with

    this

    bare

    knowledge

    of

    the

    existence

    of

    memory

    and

    its

    effects,

    there

    is

    abundant

    knowledge

    concerning

    the

    conditions

    upon

    which

    depend

    the

    vitality

    of

    that

    inner

    survnljal'

    as well as the

    fidelity

    and

    promptness

    of

    the

    reproduction.

    \\

    How

    differently

    do different

    individuals

    behave

    in

    this

    respect

    One

    retains and

    reproduces

    well;

    another,

    poorly.

    And

    not

    only

    does

    this

    comparison

    hold

    good

    when

    different

    individuals are

    compared

    with

    each

    other,

    but

    also when

    different

    phases of

    the

    existence

    of

    the

    same

    individual

    are

    compared:

    morning

    and

    evening, youth

    and

    old

    age,

    find

    him

    different

    in/

    this

    respect.

    Differences

    in

    the content of the

    thing

    to be

    reproduced

    are

    \

    of

    great

    influence. Melodies

    may

    become

    a

    source

    of

    torment

    _'_

    by

    the

    undesired

    persistency

    of

    their

    return.

    Forms

    and

    colors

    are

    not

    so

    importunate;

    and

    if

    they

    do

    return,

    it is

    with

    notice-

    able

    loss

    of

    clearness

    and

    certainty.

    The

    musician

    writes for

    the

    orchestra what

    his

    inner

    voice

    sings

    to

    him;

    the

    painter

    rarely

    relies

    without

    disadvantage

    solely

    upon

    the

    images

    which

    his

    inner

    eye

    presents

    to

    him;

    nature

    gives

    him his

    forms,

    study

    1

    governs

    his

    combinations of

    them. It

    is with

    something

    of

    a

    struggle

    that

    past

    states

    of

    feeling

    are

    realized;

    when

    realized,

    and this

    is

    often

    only through

    the

    instrumentality

    of

    the move-

    ments which

    accompanied

    them,

    they

    are

    but

    pale

    shadows

    of

    themselves.

    Emotionally

    true

    singing

    is rarer than

    technically

    correct

    singing.

    If

    the

    two

    foregoing

    points

    of

    view are taken

    together

    differences

    in

    individuals and

    Differences

    in

    content

    an

    endless

    number

    of differences

    come to

    light.

    One

    individual overflows

    with

    poetical

    reminiscences,

    another

    directs

    symphonies

    from

    memory,

    while numbers

    and

    formulae,

    which

    come

    to

    a third

    without

    effort,

    slip

    away

    from the other two

    as

    from

    a

    polished

    stone.

    Veryjyreat

    is

    the^dependence

    _

    of

    retention

    and-jffimvlnciion

    upon

    the

    inten^iyoijhe_attention

    and

    interest

    which

    were

    attached

    to

    the

    mental

    states the first

    time

    they

    were

    present.

    The

    burnt

    child shuns

    the

    fire,

    and the

    dog

    which

    has

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    4

    Memory

    and

    yet

    not

    be

    able

    to

    recall

    the

    color

    of their

    hair

    or

    of

    their

    eyes.

    Under

    ordinary

    circumstances, indeed,

    frequent

    repetitions

    are

    indispensable

    in

    order

    to

    make

    possible

    the

    reproduction

    of a

    given

    content.

    Vocabularies,

    discourses,

    and

    poems

    of

    any

    length

    cannot

    be

    learned

    by

    a

    single

    repetition

    even

    with

    the

    greatest

    concentration

    of

    attention

    on

    the

    part

    of

    an

    individual of

    very

    great

    ability.

    By

    a sufficient

    number of

    repetitions

    their

    final

    mastery

    is

    ensured,

    and

    by

    additional

    later

    reproductions

    gain

    in

    assurance

    and

    ease

    is

    secured.

    )

    /

    Left

    to

    itself

    every

    mental

    content

    gradually

    loses

    its

    capacity

    /

    for

    being

    revived,

    or

    at least

    suffers^

    loss_in

    this

    regard

    under

    \

    the

    influence

    of

    time.

    Facts crammed

    at

    examination

    time

    soon

    vanish,

    if

    they

    were

    not

    sufficiently grounded

    by

    other

    study

    and later

    subjected

    to

    a

    sufficient review.

    But

    even

    a

    thing

    so

    early

    and

    deeply

    founded

    as

    one's

    mother

    tongue

    is

    noticeably

    impaired

    if

    not used for several

    years.

    Section

    3.

    Deficiencies

    in

    our

    Knowledge

    concerning

    Memory

    The

    foregoing

    sketch

    of

    our

    knowledge

    concerning

    memory

    makes

    no claim

    to

    completeness.

    To

    it

    might

    be

    added such

    a

    series

    of

    propositions

    known

    to

    psychology

    as the

    following:

    ''

    He

    who

    learns

    quickly

    also

    forgets

    quickly, Relatively

    long

    series

    of ideas

    are

    retained

    better

    than

    relatively

    short

    ones,

    Old

    people

    forget

    most

    quickly

    the

    things they

    learned

    last,

    and

    the

    like.

    Psychology

    is wont

    to

    make

    the

    pictu-re

    rich

    with

    anecdote

    and

    illustration.

    But

    and this

    is the

    main

    point

    even

    if

    we

    particularise

    our

    knowledge

    by

    a most

    extended

    use

    (.of

    illustrative

    material,

    everything

    that

    we can

    say

    retains

    the

    indefinite,

    general,

    and

    comparative

    character

    of

    the

    propositions

    quoted

    above.

    Our information

    comes

    almost

    exclusively

    from

    the

    observation

    of

    extreme

    and

    especially

    striking

    cases.

    We

    are

    able

    to describe

    these

    quite

    correctly

    in

    a

    general way

    and

    in

    vague expressions

    of

    more

    or

    less.

    We

    suppose, again

    quite

    correctly,

    that

    the

    same influences

    exert

    themselves,

    although

    in

    a less

    degree,

    in

    the

    case

    of

    the

    inconspicuous,

    but a thousand-

    fold

    more

    frequent,

    daily

    activities

    of

    memory.

    But

    if

    our

    i

    .'

    curiosjty__

    carries

    us

    further

    and we

    crave

    more

    specific

    and

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    Our

    Knowledge

    Concerning

    Memory

    5

    dependencies,

    both those

    already

    mentioned

    and

    others,

    if we

    put questions,

    so to

    speak,

    concerning

    their

    inner structure our

    answer

    is

    silence.

    HQW

    does

    the

    disappearance

    of

    the

    ability

    to

    reproduce,

    forgetfulness,

    depend

    upon

    the

    length

    of

    ,

    time

    ^during

    which

    ^a_mp_ekiQps

    have

    taken

    place?

    What,

    proportion

    does

    the

    increase

    in

    the

    certainty

    of

    reproduction

    bear to the number

    ojj^petitions

    ?

    How

    do

    these

    relations

    vary

    with

    the

    greater

    or

    less

    intensity

    of the interest

    in

    the

    thing

    to'

    be

    reproduced

    ?

    These

    and similar

    questions

    no

    one

    can

    answer.

    This

    inability

    does

    not

    arise

    from

    a

    chance

    neglect

    of

    investi-

    gation

    of

    these

    relations.

    We

    cannot

    say

    that

    tomorrow,

    or

    whenever we wish

    to

    take

    time,

    we

    can

    investigate

    these

    prob-

    lems.

    On the

    contrary

    this

    inability

    is

    inherent

    in

    the

    nature

    of the

    questions

    themselves.

    Although

    the

    conceptions

    in

    ques-

    tion

    namely,

    degrees

    of

    forgetfulness,

    of

    certainty

    and interest

    are

    quite

    correct,

    we

    have

    no means

    for

    establishing

    such

    degrees

    in

    our

    experience

    except

    at

    the

    extremes,

    and even

    then

    we

    cannot

    accurately

    limit those extremes.

    We

    feel

    therefore

    that we are

    not at

    all

    in

    a

    condition

    to

    undertake

    the

    investiga-

    tion.

    We form

    certain

    conceptions

    during

    striking

    experiences,

    but

    we cannot find

    any

    realisation of

    them

    in

    the

    similar but less

    striking experiences

    of

    everyday

    life. Vice

    versa there are

    prob-~

    ably

    many conceptions

    which

    we

    have

    not

    as

    yet

    formed

    which

    would

    be serviceable

    and

    indispensable

    for

    a

    clear

    understanding

    of

    the

    facts,

    and

    their theoretical

    mastery.

    The

    amount

    of

    detailed information

    which

    an

    individual

    has

    at

    his

    command

    and

    his

    theoretical

    elaborations

    of

    the

    same

    are

    rnutually_,dep_endent

    ;

    they grow

    in and

    through

    each

    other.

    It

    is

    because

    of the

    indefinite and little

    specialised

    character

    of

    our

    knowledge

    that

    the

    theories

    concerning

    the

    processes

    of

    memory, reproduction,

    and association

    have

    been

    up

    to the

    present

    time

    of so

    little

    value

    for

    a

    proper

    comprehension

    of

    those

    processes.

    For

    example,

    to

    express

    our

    ideas

    concerning

    their

    physical

    basis

    we use

    different

    metaphors

    stored

    up

    ideas,

    engraved

    images,

    well-beaten

    paths.

    There

    is

    only

    one

    thing

    certain about

    these

    figures

    of

    speech

    and that

    is

    that

    they

    are

    not

    suitable.

    Of

    course the existence

    all

    these

    deficiencies has its

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    6

    Memory

    of

    the

    clearest

    insight

    into

    the

    inadequacy

    of

    our

    knowledge,

    we

    shall

    ever

    make

    any

    actual

    progress.

    Perhaps

    we

    shall

    always

    have

    to

    be

    resigned

    to

    this.

    But

    a

    somewhat

    greater

    accessibility

    than

    has so

    far

    been realised

    in

    this

    field cannot be

    denied

    to

    it,

    as

    I

    hope

    to

    prove presently.

    If

    by

    any

    chance

    a

    way

    to

    a

    deeper

    penetration

    into

    this matter

    should

    present

    itself,

    surely,

    considering

    the

    significance

    of

    memory

    for

    all

    mental

    phenomena,

    it

    should

    be

    our

    wish

    to

    enter

    that

    path

    at once.

    For

    at the

    very

    worst

    we should

    prefer

    to

    see

    resignation

    arise

    from

    the failure

    of

    earnest

    investigations

    rather

    than

    from

    persistent,

    helpless

    astonishment

    in

    the

    face

    of

    their

    difficulties.

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    CHAPTER

    II

    THE

    POSSIBILITY OF

    ENLARGING

    OUR

    KNOWL-

    EDGE OF

    MEMORY

    Section

    4.

    The

    Method

    of

    Natural

    Science

    ywA^ftC*

    ****

    The

    ^method

    of

    obtaining

    exact

    measurements

    i.e.,

    numer-

    ically

    exact

    ones

    of the

    inner structure of causal

    relations

    -is,

    by

    virtue

    of

    its

    nature,

    of

    general

    validity. This^Rthod,(

    indeed)

    has

    been

    so

    exclusively

    used and

    so

    fully

    worked

    out

    by

    the natural

    sciences

    that,

    as

    a

    rule,

    it is

    defined

    as

    something

    peculiar

    to

    them,

    as

    the

    method of

    natural

    science.

    To

    repeat,

    however,

    its

    logical

    nature

    makes

    it

    generally applicable

    to

    all

    spheres

    of existence

    and

    phenomena.

    Moreover,

    the

    possibility

    of

    defining accurately

    and

    exactly

    the actual behavior

    of

    any

    process whatever,

    and

    thereby

    of

    giving

    a

    reliable

    basis

    for

    the

    direct

    comprehension

    of

    its

    connections

    depends

    above

    all

    upon

    the

    possibility

    of

    applying

    this method.

    We

    all

    know of

    what this

    method consists: an

    attempt

    is

    f\

    6/*\ 'I

    J

    /

    .

    of

    these

    conditions~IT

    Isolated

    from

    the

    rest and

    jrarted:

    in a

    CJ

    T*~

    way

    that can be

    numerically

    described;

    then

    the

    accompanying

    change

    on the side

    of the effect

    is

    ascertained

    by

    measurement

    or

    computation.

    Two

    fundamental

    and insurmountable

    difficulties,

    seem,

    how-

    ever, to

    oppose

    a

    transfer

    of

    this

    method

    to

    the

    investigation

    of

    the causal

    relations

    of

    mental events in

    general

    and

    of those of

    memory

    in

    particular.

    In

    the

    first

    place,

    how are

    we to

    keep

    even

    approximately

    constant the

    bewildering

    mass

    of

    causal

    conditions

    which,

    in

    so

    far as

    they

    are

    of

    mental

    nature,

    almost

    completely

    elude

    our

    control,

    and

    which,

    moreover,

    are

    subject

    to

    endless and

    incessant

    change?

    In

    the

    second

    place,

    by

    what

    'I

    J

    /

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    Possibility

    of

    Enlarging

    Our

    Knowledge

    of Memory

    9

    poem.

    After

    a

    shorter

    time

    we

    should

    expect

    to

    find

    the

    dif-

    ference

    greater;

    after

    a

    longer

    time

    we

    should

    expect

    to

    find

    it

    less.

    If

    'the first

    committing

    to

    memory

    is

    a

    very

    careful

    and

    long

    continued

    one,

    the

    difference

    will

    be

    greater

    than

    if

    it

    is

    desultory

    and soon

    abandoned.

    In

    short,

    we have

    without

    doubt

    in

    these

    differences

    numerical

    expressions

    for

    the

    difference between

    these

    subliminally

    per-

    sistent

    series

    of

    ideas,

    differences which

    otherwise

    we

    would

    have to

    take

    for

    granted

    and

    would

    not

    be

    able

    to

    demonstrate

    by

    direct

    observation. Therewith

    we

    have

    gained

    possession

    of

    something

    that

    is at

    least

    like

    that

    which

    we

    are

    seeking

    in

    our

    attempt

    to

    get

    a

    foothold

    for the

    application

    of

    the

    method of the natural

    sciences :

    namely, phenomena

    on

    the

    side

    of the

    effects which

    are

    clearly

    ascertainable,

    which

    vary

    in

    accordance

    with

    the

    variation

    of

    conditions,

    and which

    are

    capable

    of numerical

    determination.

    Whether we

    possess

    in

    them

    correct

    measures

    for

    these

    inner

    differences,

    and

    whether

    /

    we

    can

    achieve

    through

    them

    correct

    conceptions

    as

    to

    the causal

    relations

    into which this

    hidden

    mental

    life

    enters

    these

    ques-'

    tions

    cannot

    be

    answered

    a

    priori. Chemistry

    is

    just

    as

    little

    able to determine

    a

    priori

    whether

    it is

    the

    electrical

    phenomena,

    or

    the

    thermal,

    or some

    other

    accompaniment

    of

    the

    process

    of

    chemical

    union,

    which

    gives

    it its

    correct

    measure

    of

    the effective

    forces of

    chemical

    affinity.

    There

    is

    only

    one

    way

    to do

    this,

    and

    that is to

    see whether

    it is

    possible

    to

    obtain,

    on

    the

    pre-

    supposition

    of

    the

    correctness

    of

    such

    an

    hypothesis^

    well

    classi-

    fied,

    uncontradictory

    results,

    and correct

    anticipations

    of

    the

    future.

    Instead

    of

    the

    simple phenomenon

    occurrence

    or

    non-occur-

    rence

    of a

    reproduction

    which admits

    of

    no

    numerical

    distinc-}

    tion,

    I

    intend

    therefore to consider

    from

    the

    experimental

    standpoint

    a

    more

    complicated,

    process

    as

    the

    effect,

    and I

    shall

    observe

    and

    measure

    its

    changes

    as

    the

    conditions

    are

    variedU

    By

    this

    I

    mean

    the artificial

    bringing

    about

    by

    an

    appropriate

    number

    of

    repetitions

    of

    a

    reproduction

    which

    would

    not occur

    of

    its

    own

    accord.

    But in

    order to

    realise

    this

    experimentally,

    two

    conditions

    at

    least

    must

    be

    fulfilled.

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    r Memory

    process

    of

    learning

    by

    heart

    is

    completed.

    For

    if

    the

    process

    of

    learning by

    heart

    is sometimes

    carried

    past

    that moment

    and

    sometimes

    broken off

    before

    it,

    then

    part

    of

    the differences

    found

    under

    the

    varying

    circumstances

    would

    be due

    to

    this

    in-

    equality,

    and

    it

    would

    be incorrect

    to

    attribute

    it

    solely

    to

    inner

    differences

    in

    the

    series

    of

    ideas.

    Consequently

    among

    the

    different

    reproductions

    of,

    say,

    a

    poem, occurring

    during

    the

    process

    of

    its

    memorisation,

    the

    experimenter

    must

    single

    out

    one' asi

    especially

    characteristic,

    and be able to

    find

    it

    again

    with

    practical

    accuracy.

    __In

    the

    second

    place

    the

    presupposition

    must

    be allowed

    that

    the

    number

    of

    repetitions

    by

    means

    of

    which,

    the other

    condi-

    tions

    being unchanged,

    this

    characteristic

    reproduction

    is

    brought

    about

    would

    be

    every

    time

    the

    same.

    For

    if

    this

    number,

    under conditions otherwise

    equivalent,

    is

    now

    this

    and

    now

    that,

    the differences

    arising

    from

    varied

    conditions

    lose,

    of

    course,

    all

    significance

    for the

    critical evaluation

    of

    those

    varying

    conditions.

    Now,

    as

    far

    as the

    first

    condition

    is

    concerned,

    it

    is

    easily

    fulfilled

    wherever

    you

    have

    what

    may

    properly

    be called

    learn-

    ing by

    heart,

    as

    in

    the case

    of

    poems,

    series

    of

    words,

    tone-

    sequences,

    and

    the

    like.

    Here,

    in

    general,

    as

    the

    number

    of

    repetitions increases, reproduction

    is

    at

    first

    fragmentary

    and

    halting;

    then it

    gains

    in

    certainty;

    and

    finally

    takes

    place

    smoothly

    and

    without error. The

    first

    reproduction

    in which

    this last result

    appears

    can

    not

    only

    be

    singled

    out

    as

    especially

    characteristic,

    but

    can

    also be

    practically

    recognised.

    For

    con-

    venience

    I

    will

    designate

    this

    briefly

    as

    the

    first

    possible

    repro-

    duction.

    The

    question

    now is:

    Does

    this fulfill

    the

    second

    condition

    mentioned

    above?

    Is

    the

    number

    of

    repetitions

    necessary

    to

    bring

    about

    this

    reproduction

    always

    the

    same,

    the other con-

    ditions

    being

    equivalent?

    However,

    in

    this

    form,

    the

    question

    will

    be

    justly

    rejected

    because it

    forces

    upon

    us,

    as if it

    were

    an

    evident

    supposition,

    the

    real

    point

    in

    question,

    the

    very

    heart

    of

    the

    matter,

    and

    admits

    of none but

    a

    misleading

    answer.

    Anyone

    will

    be

    ready

    to

    admit

    without

    hesitation

    that this relation of

    dependence

    will

    be the

    same

    if

    perfect

    equality

    of

    experimental

    conditions

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    Possibility

    of

    Enlarging

    Our

    Knowledge

    of

    Memory

    1 1

    has

    hardly

    ever been

    misunderstood

    by

    anybody

    so

    far

    as

    to

    come in here. But this

    theoretical

    constancy

    is of

    little value:

    How

    shall I

    find it

    when

    the

    circumstances

    under

    which

    I

    am

    actually

    forced

    to

    make

    my

    observations

    are

    never

    the same?

    So

    I

    must rather ask:

    Can

    I

    bring

    under

    my

    control

    the

    in-

    evitably

    and

    ever

    fluctuating

    circumstances

    and

    equalise

    them

    to such

    an

    extent

    that

    the

    constancy

    presumably

    existent

    in

    the

    causal

    relations

    in

    question

    becomes

    visible

    and

    palpable

    to

    me?

    Thus

    the

    discussion

    of

    the

    one

    difficulty

    which

    opposes

    an

    exact

    examination

    of the

    causal

    relations

    in

    the mental

    sphere

    has

    led

    us

    of

    itself

    to

    the

    other

    (4).

    A

    numerical

    determinsT )

    tion

    of

    the

    interdependent

    changes

    of cause

    and

    effect

    appears

    indeed

    possibl/

    if)only

    we can

    realise

    the

    necessary

    uniformity

    of

    the

    significant

    conditions

    in

    the

    repetition

    of

    our

    experiments.

    Section 6.

    The

    Possibility

    of

    Maintaining

    the

    Constancy

    of

    Conditions

    Requisite

    for

    Research

    He

    who

    considers the

    complicated

    processes

    of

    the

    higher

    mental life

    or

    who

    is

    occupied

    with

    the

    still

    more

    complicated

    phenomena

    of

    the

    state and of

    society

    will

    in

    general

    be

    inclined

    to

    deny

    the

    possibility

    of

    keeping

    constant the conditions

    for

    psychological

    experimentation.

    Nothing

    is

    more

    familiar

    to

    us

    than

    the

    capriciousness

    of

    mental

    life

    which

    brings

    to

    nought

    all

    foresight

    and calculation. Factors

    which

    are to the

    highest

    degree

    determinative

    and

    to the

    same

    extent

    changeable,

    such

    as

    mental

    vigor,

    interest

    in

    the

    subject,

    concentration

    of

    atten- p>

    tion,

    changes

    in

    the course of

    thought

    which have

    been

    brought

    about

    by

    sudden fancies

    and

    resolves

    all

    these

    are either not at

    all

    under

    our

    control

    or

    are

    so

    only

    to

    an

    unsatisfactory

    extent.

    V

    However,

    care must

    be

    taken

    not to

    ascribe

    too

    much,

    weight

    to

    these

    views,

    correct

    in

    themselves,

    when

    dealing

    with

    fields

    other

    than

    those

    of

    the

    processes

    by

    the

    observation

    of

    which

    these

    views

    were

    obtained.

    All

    such

    unruly

    factors

    are

    of

    the

    greatest importance

    for

    higher

    mental

    processes

    which occur

    only

    by

    an

    especially

    favorable

    concurrence

    of

    circumstances.

    The more

    lowly,

    commonplace,

    and

    constantly

    occurring pro-

    cesses are not

    in

    the least

    withdrawn

    from

    their

    influence,

    but

    we

    have

    it

    for

    the most

    part

    in

    our

    power,

    when

    it

    is a

    matter

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    Memory

    or

    less

    accuracy

    according

    to

    the

    degree

    of

    interest;

    it

    is

    con-

    stantly

    given

    other

    directions

    by

    the

    change

    of

    external

    stimuli

    and

    by

    ideas.

    But,

    in

    spite

    of

    that,

    we

    are

    on

    the whole

    sufficiently

    able

    to

    see

    a house

    just

    when

    we

    want

    to see

    it

    and

    to receive

    practically

    the

    same

    picture

    of

    it ten

    times

    in suc-

    cession

    in

    case

    no

    objective

    change

    has occurred.

    There

    is

    nothing

    a

    priori

    absurd

    in

    the

    assumption

    that

    ordin-

    l

    ary

    retention

    and

    reproduction,

    which,

    according

    to

    general

    agreement,

    is

    ranked

    next

    to

    sensorial

    perception,

    should

    also

    behave

    like

    it

    in

    this

    respect.

    Whether

    this

    is

    actually

    the

    case or

    not,

    however,

    I

    say

    now

    as

    I said

    before,

    cannot be

    decided

    in

    advance.

    Our

    present

    knowledge

    is much

    too

    frag-

    mentary,

    too

    general,

    too

    largely

    obtained

    from

    the extraordin-

    ary

    to

    enable

    us

    to

    reach

    a decision

    on

    this

    point by

    its

    aid

    ;

    at

    must

    be

    reserved for

    experiments

    especially

    adapted

    to

    that

    urpose.

    We must

    try

    in

    experimental

    fashion

    to

    keep

    as

    constant

    as

    possible

    those

    circumstances

    whose influence

    on

    retention

    and

    reproduction

    is

    known

    or

    suspected,

    and

    then

    ascertain

    whether

    that

    is sufficient. The material

    must be

    so

    hosen that

    decided

    differences

    of interest

    are,

    at least

    to

    all

    ppearances,

    excluded;

    equality

    of attention

    may

    be

    promoted

    iy

    preventing

    external

    disturbances;

    sudden

    fancies are not

    Subject

    to

    control,

    but,

    on the

    whole,

    their

    disturbing

    effect is

    limited

    to

    the

    moment,

    and will be of

    comparatively

    little account

    [f

    the

    time

    of

    the

    experiment

    is

    extended,

    etc.

    When,

    however,

    we

    have

    actually

    obtained in

    such

    manner

    /

    the

    greatest

    possible

    constancy

    of

    conditions

    attainable

    by

    us,

    (^

    jfnow

    are

    we

    to

    know

    whether this

    is

    sufficient for our

    purpose

    ?

    When

    are

    the

    circumstances,

    which

    will

    certainly

    offer differ-

    ences

    enough

    to keen

    observation,

    sufficiently

    constant?

    The

    answer

    may

    be

    made :

    When

    upon repetition

    of

    the

    experiment

    the results

    remain

    constant.

    The

    latter

    statement

    seems

    simple

    enough

    to

    be

    self-evident,

    but

    on

    closer

    approach

    to

    the

    matter

    still

    another

    difficulty

    is

    encountered.

    Section

    7.

    Constant

    Averages

    When

    shall

    the results

    obtained

    from

    repeated experiments

    under

    circumstances

    as

    much

    alike

    as

    possible

    pass

    for

    constant

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    Possibility

    of

    Enlarging

    Our

    Knowledge

    of Memory

    1

    3

    value

    as

    the

    other

    or

    at

    Isast

    deviates

    so little'

    from it

    that

    the

    difference

    in

    proportion

    to

    its

    own

    quantity

    and for

    our

    pur-

    poses

    is

    of no

    account

    ?

    Evidently

    not. That

    would be

    asking

    too

    much,

    and is

    not

    necessarily

    obtained

    even

    by

    the natural

    sciences.

    Then,

    perhaps

    it is when

    the

    avejrages

    from

    larger

    groups

    of

    experiments

    exhibit the

    characteristics

    mentioned

    above?

    Again

    evidently

    not.

    That

    would

    be

    asking

    too

    little.

    For,

    if

    observation

    of

    processes

    that

    resemble each

    other

    from

    any

    point

    of view are

    thrown

    together

    in

    sufficiently

    large

    numbers,

    1

    fairly

    constant

    mean

    values are

    almost

    everywhere

    obtained

    which,

    nevertheless,

    possess

    little

    or

    no

    importance

    for the

    pur-

    poses

    which

    we

    have

    here.

    The

    exact

    distance

    of

    two

    signal

    poles,

    the

    position

    of a star

    at

    a

    certain

    hour,

    the

    expansion

    of a

    metal

    for

    a certain

    increase

    of

    temperature,

    all

    the

    numer-

    ous coefficients

    and

    other constants

    of

    physics

    and

    chemistry

    are

    given

    us as

    average

    values

    which

    only

    approximate

    to

    a

    high

    degree

    of

    constancy.

    On

    the

    other

    hand

    the

    number

    of

    suicides

    in

    a

    certain

    month,

    the

    average

    length

    of

    life in

    a

    given place,

    the number

    of

    teams

    and

    pedestrians per

    day

    at

    a certain

    street

    corner,

    and

    the

    like,

    are

    also

    noticeably

    constant,

    each

    being

    an

    average

    from

    large groups

    of observations. But both

    kinds of

    numbers,

    which

    I

    shall

    temporarily

    denote

    as

    constants

    of

    natural

    science

    and statistical

    constants, are,

    as

    everybody

    knows,

    con-

    stant from

    different

    causes

    and

    with

    entirely

    different

    significance

    for

    the

    knowledge

    of

    causal

    relations.

    These

    differences

    can be

    formulated

    as

    follows:

    In

    the

    case

    of

    the constants

    of

    the natural

    sciences each

    indi-^>

    vidual effect is

    produced

    by

    a combination

    of causes

    exactly

    x

    >

    ~afike.j

    The individual

    values come

    out

    somewhat

    differently

    because

    a

    certain

    number

    or those

    causes do

    not

    always join

    the

    combination

    with

    exactly

    the same

    values

    (e.

    g.,

    there

    are

    little errors

    in

    the

    adjustment

    and

    reading

    of

    the

    instruments,

    irregularities

    in

    the

    texture or

    composition

    of

    the

    material

    ex-

    amined or

    employed,

    etc.).

    However,

    experience

    teaches

    us

    that

    this

    fluctuation

    of

    separate

    causes

    does

    not

    occur

    absolutely

    irregularly

    but

    that

    as a rule

    it

    runs

    through

    or,

    rather,

    tries

    out

    limited

    and

    comparatively

    small

    circles

    of

    values

    symmet-

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    1

    4

    Memory

    and

    more

    compensate

    each

    other and

    thereby

    be

    swallowed

    up

    in

    the

    central

    value

    around

    which

    they

    occur.

    And

    the final

    result

    of

    combining

    the

    values will

    be

    approximately

    the

    same

    as

    if the

    actually changeable

    causes had

    remained

    the

    same

    not

    only conceptually

    but

    also

    numerically.

    Thus,

    the

    average

    value

    is

    in

    these

    cases the

    adequate

    numerical

    representative

    of

    a

    conceptually

    definite

    and

    well limited

    system

    of

    causal con-

    nections;

    if

    one

    part

    of

    the

    system

    is

    varied,

    the

    accompanying

    changes

    of the

    average

    value

    again give

    the correct

    measure

    for

    the

    effect of those

    deviations

    on

    the

    total

    complex.

    On

    the

    other

    hand,

    no

    matter

    from

    what

    point

    of

    view

    sta-

    tistical

    constants

    may

    be considered

    it

    cannot

    be

    said

    of

    them

    that

    each

    separate

    value

    has resulted from

    the combination

    of

    causes

    which

    by

    themselves

    had

    fluctuated

    within

    tolerably

    narrow limits and

    in

    symmetrical

    fashion. The

    separate

    effects

    arise,

    rather,

    from

    an oftimes inextricable

    multiplicity

    of

    causal

    combinations

    of

    very

    different

    sorts, which,

    to

    be

    sure,

    may

    share

    numerous

    factors

    with each

    other,

    but

    which,

    taken

    ag

    a

    whole,

    have

    no conceivable

    community

    and

    actually

    correspond

    only

    in

    some

    one

    characteristic

    of the effects. That

    the

    value

    of the

    separate

    factors

    must

    be

    very

    different

    is,

    so

    to

    say,

    self

    evident.

    That,

    nevertheless,

    approximately

    constant values

    ap-

    pear

    even

    here

    by

    the

    combining

    of

    large

    groups

    this fact

    we

    may

    make

    intelligible

    by saying

    that

    in

    equal

    and

    tolerably

    large

    intervals

    of

    time

    or

    extents of

    space

    the

    separate

    causal com-

    binations

    will be realised with

    approximately

    equal

    frequency;

    we

    do

    this

    without

    doing

    more

    than

    to

    acknowledge

    as

    extant a

    peculiar

    and

    marvellous

    arrangement

    of

    nature.

    Accordingly

    these

    constant mean values

    represent

    no definite and

    separate

    causal

    systems

    but

    combinations

    of

    such

    which

    are

    by

    no

    means

    of

    themselves

    transparent.

    Therefore

    their

    changes

    upon

    varia-

    tion

    of

    conditions

    afford

    no

    genuine

    measure of

    the

    effects

    of

    these

    variations

    but

    only

    indications

    of

    them.

    They

    are

    of

    no

    direct

    value

    for the

    setting

    up

    of

    numerically

    exact

    relations

    of

    dependence

    but

    they

    are

    preparatory

    to

    this.

    Let

    us

    now turn

    back

    to the

    question

    raised

    at

    the

    beginning

    of this

    section.

    When

    may

    we

    consider

    that

    this

    equality

    of

    conditions

    which

    we

    have striven

    to

    realise

    experimentally

    has

    been

    attained

    ?

    The

    answer

    runs as follows

    :

    When the

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    Possibility

    of Enlarging

    Our

    Knowledge

    of

    Memory

    1

    5

    when at

    the

    same

    time

    we

    may

    assume

    that

    the

    separate

    cases

    V

    belong

    to

    the same causal

    system,

    whose

    elements,

    however,

    are

    not

    limited

    to

    exclusively

    constant

    values,

    but

    may

    run

    through

    small

    circles

    of

    numerical

    values

    symmetrical

    around

    a

    middle

    \

    value.

    Section

    8.

    The Law

    of

    Errors

    Our

    question,

    however,

    is

    not

    answered

    conclusively by

    the

    statement

    just

    made.

    Suppose

    we

    had

    in

    some

    way

    found

    satis-

    factorily

    constant mean

    values

    for

    some

    psychical process,

    how

    would

    we

    go

    about

    it

    to

    learn

    whether

    we

    might

    or

    might

    not

    assume

    a

    homogeneous

    causal

    condition,

    necessary

    for

    their

    further utilisation ?

    4

    The

    physical

    scientist

    generally

    knows

    beforehand that he

    will

    have to

    deal

    with

    a

    single

    causal

    com-

    bination,

    the statistician knows that he has

    to

    deal with a mask

    of

    them,

    ever inextricable

    despite

    all

    analysis.

    Both know

    this

    from the

    elementary

    knowledge

    they

    already possess

    of the

    .

    nature

    of the

    processes

    before

    they

    proceed

    with

    the

    more

    \

    detailed

    investigations. Just

    as,

    a

    moment

    ago,

    the

    present

    knowledge

    of

    psychology

    appeared

    to

    us too

    vague

    and unreli-

    I

    able to be

    depended

    upon

    for

    decision

    about

    the

    possibility

    of

    constant

    experimental

    conditions

    ;

    so

    now

    it

    may

    prove

    insufficient

    to

    determine

    satisfactorily

    whether in

    a

    given

    case we

    have

    to

    >

    deal

    with

    a

    homogeneous

    causal

    combination

    or

    a

    manifold

    of

    them

    which chance

    to

    operate together.

    The

    question

    is,

    there-

    fore,

    whether

    we

    may

    throw

    light

    on

    the

    nature

    of

    the

    causation

    of the

    results

    we

    obtain

    under

    conditions

    as

    uniform

    as

    possible

    by

    the

    help

    of some other criterion.

    The

    answer

    must

    be:

    This

    cannot

    be

    done

    with

    absolute cer-

    tainty,

    but

    can, nevertheless,

    be

    done

    with

    great probability.

    Thus,

    a

    start

    has

    been

    made

    from

    presuppositions

    as

    similar

    as

    possible

    to

    those

    by

    which

    physical

    constants

    have

    been obtained

    and

    the

    consequences

    which

    flow

    from

    them

    have

    been

    investi-

    gated.

    This

    has

    been

    done for

    the

    distribution of

    the

    single

    values

    about

    the

    resulting

    central

    value and

    quite

    independently

    of

    the

    actual

    concrete characteristics of

    the

    causes.

    Repeated

    comparisons

    of these calculated values

    with

    actual observations

    have

    shown

    that

    the

    similarity

    of

    the

    suppositions

    is

    indeed

    great

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    1

    6

    Memory

    in

    this,

    that

    the

    grouping

    of

    a

    large

    number

    of

    separate

    values

    that

    have

    arisen

    from

    causes

    of

    the

    same

    kind

    and

    with

    the

    modifications

    repeatedly

    mentioned,

    may

    be

    correctly

    represented

    by

    a

    mathematical

    formula,

    the

    so-called

    Law

    of

    Errors.

    This

    is

    especially

    characterised

    by

    the fact

    that

    it

    contains

    but

    one

    unknown

    quantity.

    This

    unknown

    quantity

    measures

    the

    relative

    compactness

    of

    the

    distribution of

    the

    separate

    values

    around

    their

    central

    tendency.

    It therefore

    changes

    according

    to

    the

    kind of observation

    and

    is determined

    by

    calculation

    from

    the

    separate

    values.

    NOTE. For

    further information

    concerning

    this

    formula,

    which

    is

    not

    here our

    concern,

    I must refer to

    the

    text-books

    on

    the

    calculation

    of

    probabilities

    and on

    the

    theory

    of

    errors. For

    readers

    unfamiliar

    with

    the

    latter a

    graphic

    explanation

    will

    be

    more

    comprehensible

    than a

    statement and

    discussion of

    the

    formula.

    Imagine

    a

    certain observation

    to

    be

    repeated

    1,000

    times. Each observation

    as such

    is

    represented

    by

    a

    space

    of

    one

    square

    millimeter,

    and

    its numerical

    value,

    or rather its

    deviation

    from

    the

    central

    value of

    the

    whole

    1,000 observations,

    by

    its

    position

    on

    the

    horizontal

    line

    p

    q

    of

    the

    adjoining

    Figure

    I.

    For

    every

    observation

    which

    exactly

    corresponds

    with

    the

    central

    value

    one

    square

    millimeter is

    laid

    off on

    the

    vertical

    line m n.

    For

    each

    observed

    value

    which

    deviates

    by

    one

    unit

    from the central value

    upward

    one

    square

    millimeter

    is

    laid

    off

    on

    a

    vertical

    line

    to

    right

    of

    m

    n

    and distant one

    millimeter

    from

    it,

    etc. For

    every

    observed

    value

    which devi-

    ates

    by

    x

    units

    above

    (or

    below)

    the

    central

    value,

    one

    sq.

    mm.

    is

    placed

    on

    a

    vertical

    line

    distant

    from

    m

    n

    by

    x

    mms.,

    to the

    right

    (or

    left,

    for

    values

    below

    the central

    value).

    When

    all

    the observations

    are

    arranged

    in

    this

    way

    the

    outer

    contour

    of

    the

    figure

    may

    be

    so

    compacted

    that

    the

    projecting

    corners

    of

    the

    separate

    squares

    are

    transformed into a

    sym-

    metrical

    curve. If

    now

    the

    separate

    measures

    are of

    such a

    sort

    that their

    central

    value

    may

    be

    considered

    as

    a

    constant

    as

    conceived

    by physical science,

    the

    form of the

    resulting

    curve

    is

    of

    the

    kind

    marked

    a

    and

    b

    in

    Fig.

    I.

    If the middle

    value is a

    statistical

    constant,

    the

    curve

    may

    have

    any

    sort

    of

    a

    form.

    (The

    curves a and

    b with

    the

    lines

    p q

    in-

    clude in

    each

    case

    an

    area

    of

    1,000

    sq.

    mms. This

    is

    strictly

    the

    case

    only

    with

    indefinite

    prolongation

    of the curves and

    the

    lines

    P

    q,

    but

    these lines

    and

    curves

    finally

    approach

    each other

    so

    closely

    that

    where

    the

    drawing

    breaks

    off

    only

    two

    or

    three

    sq.

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    Possibility of

    Enlarging

    Our

    Knowledge of

    Memory

    1

    7

    more

    steep

    or more flat

    form

    depends

    on the

    nature of

    those

    observations.

    The more

    exact

    they

    are,

    the

    more

    will

    they pile

    up

    around

    the

    central

    value;

    and

    the

    more

    infrequent

    the

    large

    deviations,

    the

    steeper

    will

    the

    curve

    be

    and

    vice versa.

    For

    the

    rest the law of formation

    of

    the

    curve

    is

    always

    the

    same.

    Therefore,

    if

    a

    person,

    in

    the case

    of

    any

    specific

    combination

    of

    observations,

    obtains

    any

    measure of

    the

    compactness

    of

    distribution

    of

    the

    observations,

    he

    can

    survey

    the

    grouping

    of

    the

    whole

    mass. He

    could

    state,

    for

    instance,

    how

    often

    a

    deviation of a

    certain value

    occurs

    and

    how

    many

    deviations

    fall

    between certain

    limits.

    Or

    as

    I shall

    show

    in

    what

    follows

    he

    may

    state

    what amount

    of

    variation

    includes between

    itself-

    and

    the

    central

    value

    a certain

    per

    cent of

    all

    the observed

    values.

    The

    lines

    -f-

    w and w of

    our

    figure,

    for

    instance,

    cut

    out

    exactly

    the central

    half

    of

    the

    total

    space representing

    the obser-

    vations.

    But

    in

    the

    case of

    the

    more

    exact observations

    of

    I b

    they

    are

    only

    one

    half

    as

    far from m

    n

    as

    in

    i a. So

    the

    state-

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    1 8

    Memory

    Therefore,

    it

    may

    be said:

    wherever

    a

    group

    of

    effects

    may

    be

    considered

    as

    having

    originated

    each

    time

    from

    the

    same_

    causal

    combination,

    which

    was

    subject

    each time

    only

    to

    so-

    called

    accidental

    disturbances,

    then

    these

    values

    arrange

    them-

    selves

    in

    accordance

    with

    the

    law of

    errors.

    However,

    the

    reverse of

    this

    proposition

    is

    not

    necessarily

    true,

    namely,

    that

    wherever

    a distribution of

    values

    occurs

    according

    to

    the law of

    errors

    the

    inference

    may

    be

    drawn

    that

    this

    kind

    of

    causation

    has been at

    work.

    Why

    should

    nature not

    occasionally

    be

    able

    to

    produce

    an

    analogous

    group-

    ing

    in a more

    complicated

    way?

    In

    reality

    this

    seems

    only

    an

    extremely

    rare occurrence.

    For

    among

    all the

    groups

    of

    num-

    bers

    which

    in

    statistics

    are

    usually

    condensed into

    mean

    values

    not one

    has

    as

    yet

    been

    found

    which

    originated

    without

    question

    \

    from

    a number of

    causal

    systems

    and

    also

    exhibited

    the

    arrange-

    \

    ment

    summarised

    by

    the

    law

    of

    errors.

    1

    Accordingly,

    this law

    may

    be used as a

    criterion,

    not

    an

    abso-

    lutely

    safe

    one

    to

    be

    sure,

    but

    still

    a

    highly probable

    one,

    by

    means of which

    to

    judge

    whether

    the

    approximately

    constant

    mean values

    that

    may

    be

    obtained

    by

    any

    proceeding may

    be

    employed experimentally

    as

    genuine

    constants

    of

    science.

    The

    Law of

    Errors does not

    furnish

    sufficient

    conditions

    for

    such

    a

    use but it

    does furnish

    one of

    the

    necessary

    ones.

    The

    final

    explanation

    must

    depend upon

    the

    outcome

    of

    investigations

    to

    the

    very

    foundations

    of

    which

    it

    furnishes a

    certain

    security.

    That is

    why

    I

    applied

    the

    measure offered

    by

    it to answer our

    still

    unanswered

    question:

    If

    the conditions

    are

    kept

    as

    much

    alike

    as is

    possible,

    is

    the

    average

    number

    of

    repetitions,

    which

    is

    necessary

    for

    learning

    similar

    series

    to the

    point

    of

    first

    possible

    reproduction,

    a

    constant

    mean

    value

    in

    the

    natural

    science

    sense?

    And

    I

    may

    anticipate

    by

    saying

    that

    in

    the

    case

    investigated

    the

    answer

    has

    come

    out

    in

    the

    affirmative.

    x

    The

    numbers

    representing

    the

    births

    of

    boys

    and

    girls

    respectively,

    as

    derived

    from

    the total

    number

    of

    births,

    are

    said

    to

    group

    themselves

    in

    very

    close

    correspondence

    with the

    law

    of

    errors.

    But in

    this

    case it

    is

    for

    this

    very

    reason

    probable

    that

    they

    arise

    from

    a

    homogeneous

    combi-

    nation

    of

    physiological

    causes

    aiming

    so to

    speak

    at

    the creation

    of

    a

    well

    determined

    relation.

    (See

    Lexis,

    Zur

    Theorie

    der

    Massenerscheinungen

    in

    der

    menschlichen

    Gesellschaft,

    p.

    64

    and

    elsewhere

    )

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    Possibility

    of

    Enlarging

    Our

    Knowledge

    of

    Memory

    19

    Section

    p.

    Resume

    Two fundamental

    difficulties arise in

    the

    way

    of the

    applica-

    tion

    of

    the

    so-called

    Natural

    Science

    Method

    to

    the

    examination

    of

    psychical processes:

    (1)

    The

    constant flux

    and

    caprice

    of

    mental

    events

    do

    not

    admit of the

    establishment

    of

    stable

    experimental

    conditions.

    (2) Psychical processes

    offer

    no means

    for

    measurement

    or

    i

    enumeration.

    In

    the

    case

    of the

    special

    field of

    memory

    (learning,

    retention,

    f

    reproduction)

    the

    second

    difficulty

    may

    be

    overcome

    to

    a

    certain

    extent.

    Among

    the

    external

    conditions

    of

    these

    processes

    some

    7

    are

    directly

    accessible

    to measurement

    (the

    time,

    the

    number

    of

    repetitions). They

    may

    be

    employed

    in

    getting

    numerical

    values

    indirectlywhere

    that

    would not

    have

    been

    possible

    directly.

    We must

    not

    wait until

    the

    series

    of ideas

    committed

    to

    memory

    ,

    return

    to

    consciousness

    of

    themselves,

    but

    we must

    meet

    them

    halfway

    and

    renew them

    to

    such an

    extent

    that

    they

    may.jus^

    \

    be

    reproduced

    without

    error. The

    work

    requisite

    for

    this

    uncTer

    certain

    conditions

    I

    take

    experimentally

    as

    a

    measure

    of the/

    influence of

    these

    conditions

    ;

    the

    differences

    in

    the

    work

    which

    appear

    with a

    change

    of

    conditions

    I

    interpret

    as

    a

    measure

    of

    the

    influence of

    that

    change.

    Whether the

    first

    difficulty,

    the

    establishment of

    stable

    experi-

    mental

    conditions,

    may

    also

    be

    overcome

    satisfactorily

    cannot

    be decided a

    priori.

    Experiments

    must

    be

    made under conditions

    as far as

    possible

    the

    same,

    to

    see whether the

    results,

    which

    will

    probably

    deviate from

    one

    another

    when

    taken

    separately,

    will furnish

    constant

    mean

    values when

    collected to

    form

    larger

    groups.

    However,

    taken

    by

    itself,

    this is

    not sufficient to enable

    us

    to

    utilise

    such numerical

    results for

    the

    establishment

    of

    numerical

    relations

    of

    dependence

    in

    the

    natural science sense.

    Statistics

    is

    concerned with

    a

    great

    mass

    of

    constant

    mean

    values that do

    not

    at all

    arise

    from

    the

    frequent

    repetition

    of

    an

    ideally

    frequent

    occurrence and

    therefore

    cannot

    favor

    further

    insight

    into it.

    Such

    is

    the

    great complexity

    of

    our

    mental

    life

    that

    it is

    not

    possible

    to

    deny

    that constant

    mean

    values,

    when

    obtained,

    are

    of

    the

    nature of

    such

    statistical

    con-

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    2O

    .

    Memory

    to

    the distribution

    found

    everywhere

    in natural

    science,

    where

    repeated

    observation

    of

    the

    -same

    occurrence

    furnishes different

    separate

    values,

    I

    suppose

    tentatively

    again

    that

    the

    repeatedly

    examined

    psychical

    process

    in

    question

    occurred

    each

    time

    under

    conditions

    sufficiently

    similar for

    our

    purposes.

    This

    supposi-

    tion

    is

    not

    compulsory,

    but is

    very

    probable.

    If

    it

    is

    wrong,

    *

    the continuation

    of

    experimentation

    will

    presumably

    teach

    this

    by

    itself: the

    questions

    put

    from

    different

    points

    of

    v

    view

    will

    lead

    to

    contradictory

    results.

    Section

    10.

    The

    Probable Error

    The

    quantity

    which

    measures the

    compactness

    of the observed

    values obtained

    in

    any

    given

    case and

    which

    makes

    the

    formula

    which

    represents

    their distribution

    a

    definite one

    may,

    as

    has

    already

    been

    stated,

    be

    chosen

    differently.

    I

    use

    the

    so-called

    probable

    error

    (P.E.) i.e.,

    that deviation

    above

    and

    below

    the mean value

    which

    is

    just

    as

    often

    exceeded

    by-

    the

    separate

    values

    as

    not

    reached

    by

    them,

    and

    which,

    therefore,

    between

    its

    positive

    and

    negative

    limits,

    includes

    just

    half

    of

    all

    the

    observational

    results

    symmetrically arranged

    around the

    mean

    value. As is

    evident

    from the