Earth System Science Partnership

Global Water System Project

Holger Hoff

Earth System Science Partnership

• a new phase of integrated research

• focusing on human-environment interactions

• assessing vulnerabilities, limits and critical thresholds of Earth system components

• addressing policy relevant science questions that cannot be answered by any of the programmes individually

Pielke et al., (2001) Ecol. Appl. 7

Biosphere Interactions

Land use change effects

River Basins & Coasts

• Impact of riverine carbon, nutrients, water, sediment and toxins on the coast

• Critical loads and thresholds

Buddemeier et al (2002), LOICZ Report 24

CLIVAR – Climate Variability and Predictability

e.g.:

• Will there be an El Niño next year?

• Will the next monsoon cause drought or flooding?

GEWEX – Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment

to observe, understand and model the global hydrological cycle, predict the variations and impacts on regional hydrological processes and water resources

Continental Scale Experiments

GECHS - Global Environmental Change and Human Security

Water Security

i.    Effects of dams and other development projects on access to water resources

ii.   Teleconnections in the hydrological cycle, e.g. through links to agriculture and trade

iii.         Extent and causes of scarcity, wrt existing allocation arrangements (equity issue see food – Mohamed Salih)

IT – Industrial Transformation

e.g.:

decoupling the need of cities for water from effects on the hydrological cycle

Diversitas

Freshwater biodiversity assessment and drivers of change

Freshwater biodiversity changes, e.g related to climate change, species introduction or eutrophication

Ecosystem resilience or adaptation to human impacts

Rational :

Humans have begun to affect the Global Water System significantly without adequate understanding of how the system works

Global Water System Project

Mission:Improve knowledge of, and responsible interaction with the GWSe.g. through global observation

consolidation of global data setspredictive and coupled modelling

Global Water System Project

Overarching question:

How are humans changing the global water cycle,

the associated biogeochemical cycles,

and the biological components of the

Global Water System,

and what are the social feedbacks

arising from these changes?

 

Integrative questions I. What are the magnitudes of global-scale changes in the Global

Water System, attributable e.g. to changing water use, water management, land use, and climate variability and change?

II. What are the main mechanisms by which human activities are affecting the Global Water System?  

III. To what extent is the Global Water System resilient to global change? How adaptable is the Global Water System and how capable are water management systems and ecosystems to cope?

Global Water System Project

GWSP Pilot Project on Virtual Water Trade

IGBP: nitrogen and nutrient effects IHDP: institutional settings of water allocation at all scales WCRP: climatic hotspots (aridification, droughts) that will

induce additional VWTDiversitas: ecological consequences

South Asia:

“New export opportunities are emerging, for non-traditional items”

Aggarwal, Joshi, Ingram, Gupta, 2003

Hoekstra et al 2003

Water & Food

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Agricultural UseIndustrial UseMunicipal Use

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Wat

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Shiklomanov 2003

Common interests of GWSP & GECAFS

GWSP GECAFS

about water security about food security (provision)

adaptability of the Global Water System

adaptation strategies for food provision

supporting water policies supporting food policies

effects of changing food preferences on the GWS

analysis of changing food preferences

  Production (million tons)  

  1999-2000 2020

Rice 85.4 122.1

Wheat 71.0 102.8

Vegetables 84.5 149.7

Meat and eggs

3.7 7.8

Virtual water content (per kg)

Potatoes: 100-150 lWheat: 1000-2000 lRice: 1500-3500 lBeef: 15,000 – 20,000 l

Consequences for regional water resources and the GWS ?

Common interests of GWSP & GECAFS South Asia

Aggarwal, Joshi, Ingram, Gupta, 2003

Water & Food in the IGP

Increasing competition for water with non-agricultural usersIncreasing hydrological variability and extremes (glacier melting)

Need to improve utilization of groundwaterNeed to improve reuse of wastewater in agriculture

Nepal: decreasing dry-season flow – why ?

The Global Water System Project invites your contribution

contact

www.gwsp.org holger.hoff@pik-potsdam.de