EARNINGS PRESENTATION FEBRUARY 2019 - West Fraser · EARNINGS PRESENTATION FEBRUARY 2019. 2 ......

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1 EARNINGS PRESENTATION FEBRUARY 2019

Transcript of EARNINGS PRESENTATION FEBRUARY 2019 - West Fraser · EARNINGS PRESENTATION FEBRUARY 2019. 2 ......

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EARNINGS PRESENTATIONFEBRUARY 2019

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General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains historical information, descriptions of current

circumstances and statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial results. Readers are cautioned that

this presentation is qualified in its entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the information contained in

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s) management’s discussion and analysis for the year ended December 31, 2018 (MD&A),

available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts of the information contained in this presentation to

the exclusion of others.

Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of applicable

securities laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable guidance to the reader but their accuracy

depends on a number of assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some cases, forward-looking

statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not expect”,

“an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”, “intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state

that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”, “will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition,

any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances

contain forward-looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead

represent management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances. By their nature,

forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which

contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Actual outcomes

and results of these statements will depend on a number of factors including those matters described under “Risks and

Uncertainties”, in our MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or projected. Reference should be made to the

other factors discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities. Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in

relying upon forward-looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking

statements, whether written or oral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required by applicable securities

laws.

Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA. Non-IFRS measures

do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures

presented by others. For further information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the “Non-IFRS Measures”

section in the MD&A.

External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external source, it should not be

interpreted that WFT has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the information

presented herein is based on or derived from statements by third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf

by WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness,

accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information or any other information or opinions contained herein.

Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated.

Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm” mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and

“SYP” means southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry

Terms found in our most recent Annual Report.

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0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

$270

$280

$290

$300

$310

$320

$330

$340

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418

Expenditures % change

Demand conditions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Housing Starts

2017 2018

2017: 1,203

2018: 1,260

Limited growth needed for increased demand of 1 – 2 billion board feet

Repair and

renovation growth

continues

Leading indicator of Remodeling ActivityMonthly Annual

$B

4 Q

trM

ovin

g I

mpro

vem

ents

and R

epairs

4 Q

trM

ovin

g r

ate

of

Change

Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies

50k (4%) annual increase in housing starts

~600MMfbm increase in lumber demand

4% growth in repair and renovation

~800MMfbm increase in lumber demand

3% growth other demand (industrial, non-residential)

~450MMfbm increase in lumber demand

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2018Q4 2019 Q1

Western Canada Curtailments

Supply conditions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

BC Canada US Total NA

Lumber Supply

2017 2018

Down 3.4%

Down 1.8%

Up 4.4%

Up 1.6%

Source: Western Wood Products Association, management estimates Source: Industry analysts, public filings, management estimates

Supply growth challenges

• Equipment cost inflation affecting paybacks leads to cancelations• Contractor availability and lead times• Residual markets (new and existing)• Slower than expected start up schedule• Temporary curtailments become permanent

Curtailments a headwind to supply growth

Billion fbm MMfbm

Mix of

temporary

and

permanent

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-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418

WFT Shipments to Production differential

SPF SYP

Market volatility - Lumber

Undersupply

Oversupply

MMfbm

Difficult for quick production response, supply disruptions drive volatility

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Lumber – key metrics

• Log availability, wet weather, curtailments, maintenance,

capital commissioning

• Shipments fall more into line with production for Q418

after surge in Q2, Q3 to clear backlog

• Steep decline in SPF benchmark price over

comparative periods

• SYP 2x4 held up better but wider dimensions dropped

more significantly from third quarter to fourth quarter

• Combination of lumber price, dimension differentials,

log inflation, lower production and lower shipments

shipments

SPF and SYP wides price decline key driver along with lower shipments

Q418 Q318 Q3- Q4

Lumber production (MMfbm) 1,559 1,642 (83)

-5.1%

Lumber shipments (MMfbm) 1,569 1,749 (180)

-10.3%

SPF #2 and Better, 2x4 - Cdn$ 432$ 630$ (198)$

-31.4%

SYP #2 West, 2x4 - Cdn$ 553$ 613$ (60)$

-9.8%

SYP #2 West, 2x10 - Cdn$ 414$ 601$ (188)$

-31.2%

SYP Composite - Cdn$ 508$ 604$ (96)$

-15.9%

Adjusted EBITDA / Mfbm 43$ 194$ (150)$

-77.6%

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Q4 Lumber Earnings Reconciliation

Price and product differentials key driver, seasonal volume impact

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Year in Review

Record earnings and strong cash flow in a volatile year

• Increase largely from carryover of Gilman acquisition and

recovery from 2017 fire season

• Improvements at Slave Lake and Cariboo, maintenance

and downtime at Quesnel River pulp, Hinton challenges

continue

• Higher prices across all commodities for much of the year

• Duties, pension funding and taxes consumed large portion

of the growth in adjusted EBITDA

• 2 sawmill rebuilds, 5 continuous kilns, pulp upgrades

• Low leverage, strong liquidity, financial flexibility

• Significant buyback activity over the course of the year,

capital fully allocated

• Significant duties on deposit.

2018 2017 Change

Lumber shipments (MMfbm) 6,582 6,101 481

7.9%

Pulp shipments (Mtonnes) 1,138 1,167 (29)

-2%

Adjusted EBITDA 1,538$ 1,160$ 378$

33%

Cash flow from operations 909$ 902$ 7$

Capital expenditure 370$ 336$ 34$

10%

Net debt 606$ 376$ 230$

Net debt to capital 17% 12% 500 bps

Cumulative duties on deposit 323$ 85$ 238$

Shares outstanding (000s) 69,819 77,946 (8,127)

-10%

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$2,801

$90

$1,199

$602

$110

$942

$100

$42

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Cash fromoperations

CapitalExpenditure

Acquisitions Debt serviceand leverage

Dividends Buybacks Other Retainedcash flow

$1.8B Reinvested in the business

$1.1B returned to

shareholders

Balanced Capital allocation

Consistently deploying capital to create value

2015 through 2018

Capital Expenditure

, 43%

Acquisitions, 21%

Buybacks & Dividends,

38%

Debt, Other & Retained, -2%

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$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

2016 2017 2018

Available liquidity

Bank lines Cash

Liquidity

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Term loan Notes Revolver

Scheduled maturities

Ample financial flexibility

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Share repurchases

Consistently buying back shares, trading liquidity remains robust

Average repurchase price:

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 To date

$44.60 $51.86 $55.57 $44.06 $68.45 $82.97 $73.06 $66.07

$3$115 $174

$364 $381

$1,056 $1,087

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cumulative investment in repurchases(millions of dollars)

As of February 8, 2019

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total volume traded (000)

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Supply shocks from transportation and

weather contributed to volatile lumber

price and earnings throughout 2018

Another significant wildfire season in

BC further compromises long term

timber supply

Difficult decisions taken on

curtailments, permanent 300 Mmfbm

reduction in BC

Continued reliability challenges at

Hinton pulp

Summary

✓ Lumber supply and demand

fundamentals remain sound, industry

curtailments will affect 2019 supply

picture

✓ Lumber markets recovering in Q1

✓ Improved results at Cariboo and Slave

Lake Pulp

✓ Completed $370M of capital

investment including two new sawmills

in low cost regions

✓ Maintained financial flexibility,

executed balanced capital allocation

strategy