EARNINGS PRESENTATION FEBRUARY 2019 - West Fraser · EARNINGS PRESENTATION FEBRUARY 2019. 2 ......
Transcript of EARNINGS PRESENTATION FEBRUARY 2019 - West Fraser · EARNINGS PRESENTATION FEBRUARY 2019. 2 ......
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EARNINGS PRESENTATIONFEBRUARY 2019
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General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains historical information, descriptions of current
circumstances and statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial results. Readers are cautioned that
this presentation is qualified in its entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the information contained in
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s) management’s discussion and analysis for the year ended December 31, 2018 (MD&A),
available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts of the information contained in this presentation to
the exclusion of others.
Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of applicable
securities laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable guidance to the reader but their accuracy
depends on a number of assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some cases, forward-looking
statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not expect”,
“an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”, “intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state
that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”, “will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition,
any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances
contain forward-looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead
represent management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances. By their nature,
forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which
contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Actual outcomes
and results of these statements will depend on a number of factors including those matters described under “Risks and
Uncertainties”, in our MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or projected. Reference should be made to the
other factors discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities. Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in
relying upon forward-looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statements, whether written or oral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required by applicable securities
laws.
Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA. Non-IFRS measures
do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures
presented by others. For further information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the “Non-IFRS Measures”
section in the MD&A.
External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external source, it should not be
interpreted that WFT has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the information
presented herein is based on or derived from statements by third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf
by WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness,
accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information or any other information or opinions contained herein.
Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated.
Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm” mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and
“SYP” means southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry
Terms found in our most recent Annual Report.
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0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
$270
$280
$290
$300
$310
$320
$330
$340
Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418
Expenditures % change
Demand conditions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Housing Starts
2017 2018
2017: 1,203
2018: 1,260
Limited growth needed for increased demand of 1 – 2 billion board feet
Repair and
renovation growth
continues
Leading indicator of Remodeling ActivityMonthly Annual
$B
4 Q
trM
ovin
g I
mpro
vem
ents
and R
epairs
4 Q
trM
ovin
g r
ate
of
Change
Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies
50k (4%) annual increase in housing starts
~600MMfbm increase in lumber demand
4% growth in repair and renovation
~800MMfbm increase in lumber demand
3% growth other demand (industrial, non-residential)
~450MMfbm increase in lumber demand
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2018Q4 2019 Q1
Western Canada Curtailments
Supply conditions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
BC Canada US Total NA
Lumber Supply
2017 2018
Down 3.4%
Down 1.8%
Up 4.4%
Up 1.6%
Source: Western Wood Products Association, management estimates Source: Industry analysts, public filings, management estimates
Supply growth challenges
• Equipment cost inflation affecting paybacks leads to cancelations• Contractor availability and lead times• Residual markets (new and existing)• Slower than expected start up schedule• Temporary curtailments become permanent
Curtailments a headwind to supply growth
Billion fbm MMfbm
Mix of
temporary
and
permanent
5
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418
WFT Shipments to Production differential
SPF SYP
Market volatility - Lumber
Undersupply
Oversupply
MMfbm
Difficult for quick production response, supply disruptions drive volatility
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Lumber – key metrics
• Log availability, wet weather, curtailments, maintenance,
capital commissioning
• Shipments fall more into line with production for Q418
after surge in Q2, Q3 to clear backlog
• Steep decline in SPF benchmark price over
comparative periods
• SYP 2x4 held up better but wider dimensions dropped
more significantly from third quarter to fourth quarter
• Combination of lumber price, dimension differentials,
log inflation, lower production and lower shipments
shipments
SPF and SYP wides price decline key driver along with lower shipments
Q418 Q318 Q3- Q4
Lumber production (MMfbm) 1,559 1,642 (83)
-5.1%
Lumber shipments (MMfbm) 1,569 1,749 (180)
-10.3%
SPF #2 and Better, 2x4 - Cdn$ 432$ 630$ (198)$
-31.4%
SYP #2 West, 2x4 - Cdn$ 553$ 613$ (60)$
-9.8%
SYP #2 West, 2x10 - Cdn$ 414$ 601$ (188)$
-31.2%
SYP Composite - Cdn$ 508$ 604$ (96)$
-15.9%
Adjusted EBITDA / Mfbm 43$ 194$ (150)$
-77.6%
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Q4 Lumber Earnings Reconciliation
Price and product differentials key driver, seasonal volume impact
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Year in Review
Record earnings and strong cash flow in a volatile year
• Increase largely from carryover of Gilman acquisition and
recovery from 2017 fire season
• Improvements at Slave Lake and Cariboo, maintenance
and downtime at Quesnel River pulp, Hinton challenges
continue
• Higher prices across all commodities for much of the year
• Duties, pension funding and taxes consumed large portion
of the growth in adjusted EBITDA
• 2 sawmill rebuilds, 5 continuous kilns, pulp upgrades
• Low leverage, strong liquidity, financial flexibility
• Significant buyback activity over the course of the year,
capital fully allocated
• Significant duties on deposit.
2018 2017 Change
Lumber shipments (MMfbm) 6,582 6,101 481
7.9%
Pulp shipments (Mtonnes) 1,138 1,167 (29)
-2%
Adjusted EBITDA 1,538$ 1,160$ 378$
33%
Cash flow from operations 909$ 902$ 7$
Capital expenditure 370$ 336$ 34$
10%
Net debt 606$ 376$ 230$
Net debt to capital 17% 12% 500 bps
Cumulative duties on deposit 323$ 85$ 238$
Shares outstanding (000s) 69,819 77,946 (8,127)
-10%
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$2,801
$90
$1,199
$602
$110
$942
$100
$42
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Cash fromoperations
CapitalExpenditure
Acquisitions Debt serviceand leverage
Dividends Buybacks Other Retainedcash flow
$1.8B Reinvested in the business
$1.1B returned to
shareholders
Balanced Capital allocation
Consistently deploying capital to create value
2015 through 2018
Capital Expenditure
, 43%
Acquisitions, 21%
Buybacks & Dividends,
38%
Debt, Other & Retained, -2%
10
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2016 2017 2018
Available liquidity
Bank lines Cash
Liquidity
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Term loan Notes Revolver
Scheduled maturities
Ample financial flexibility
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Share repurchases
Consistently buying back shares, trading liquidity remains robust
Average repurchase price:
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 To date
$44.60 $51.86 $55.57 $44.06 $68.45 $82.97 $73.06 $66.07
$3$115 $174
$364 $381
$1,056 $1,087
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cumulative investment in repurchases(millions of dollars)
As of February 8, 2019
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total volume traded (000)
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Supply shocks from transportation and
weather contributed to volatile lumber
price and earnings throughout 2018
Another significant wildfire season in
BC further compromises long term
timber supply
Difficult decisions taken on
curtailments, permanent 300 Mmfbm
reduction in BC
Continued reliability challenges at
Hinton pulp
Summary
✓ Lumber supply and demand
fundamentals remain sound, industry
curtailments will affect 2019 supply
picture
✓ Lumber markets recovering in Q1
✓ Improved results at Cariboo and Slave
Lake Pulp
✓ Completed $370M of capital
investment including two new sawmills
in low cost regions
✓ Maintained financial flexibility,
executed balanced capital allocation
strategy