Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5,...

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Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020

Transcript of Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5,...

Page 1: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

Q4 & Full Year 2019Earnings PresentationFebruary 5, 2020

Page 2: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information

2

Notices

• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.

• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

• Such statements and estimates are based on assumptions as to the future and on management’s current expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.

• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.

• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.

Page 3: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

2019 Financial and Operational Highlights

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Highlights

• Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $138 million and an adjusted loss of $0.37 per diluted

share

• Reduced North American unit manufacturing costs by 1% despite significant

production curtailments throughout the year

• Record annual production at four mills (two in North America, two in Europe)

• Termed out 2020 senior secured notes to 2027 at 5.75% coupon, upsized principal

by $110 million to bolster liquidity

• Returned $130 million in cash to shareholders through dividends and share

repurchases

• Declared quarterly variable dividend of C $0.20 per share for shareholders of record

on February 28, 2020

Page 4: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

US Housing Starts

4

Business Drivers

Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted

• US housing starts rose 3% in 2019, and economists are forecasting another 3% increase in starts this year

• December 2019 seasonally adjusted annual rate of starts was 1.61 million, and rate of permits was 1.42 million

(in millions)

(1) Based on US housing economists’ forecasts.

(1)

Page 5: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

243

211

188

217223

351

210203

197186

168

199

315

187184

160153

164

190

307

166

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2018 2019

North Central

South East

Western Canada

North American Benchmark OSB Prices

5

Business Drivers

Spread SE vs NC 40 14 2 49 24 36 23

Spread WC vs NC 59 51 35 53 33 44 44

Source: Random Lengths

US$

/Msf

-7/1

6”

Page 6: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

European Indicative OSB Price(1)

6

Business Drivers

€/m

3

(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest continental market.

299

287 285

269

247

294

274

200

225

250

275

300

325

Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2018 2019

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Financial Summary

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Financials

(1) The Company recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $80 million (pre-tax) against the carrying value of the 100 Mile House, BC mill’s fixed assets as at December 31, 2018, and a non-cash impairment charge of $10 million (pre-tax) against the carrying value of certain of the Cordele, GA mill’s production equipment in the third quarter of 2019.

(2) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate (2019 and 2018 - 26%). Q1 to Q3 of 2018 were based on a rate of 27% and a true-up for the full year rate of 26% was reflected in Q4.

(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q4 Q3 Q4

2019 2019 2018 2019 2018Sales $ 373 $ 435 $ 501 $ 1,731 $ 2,424Adjusted EBITDA

North America 20 24 50 85 652Europe 11 11 24 64 86Unallocated (4) (2) (4) (11) (14)

Total 27 33 70 138 724

(Loss) earnings $ (12) $ (17) $ (28) $ (42) $ 371Adjusted for:

Impairment of assets(1) - 10 80 10 80Loss on disposal of assets 2 - 2 3 2Stock-based compensation and related costs 1 - - 3 4

Costs on early extinguishment of 2020 Notes - - - 10 -

Costs related to 100 Mile House indefinite curtailment - - - 2 -Reported income tax (recovery) expense (6) (6) (26) (27) 100

Adjusted pre-tax (loss) earnings (15) (13) 28 (41) 557Income tax recovery (expense) at statutory rate(2) 4 4 (2) 11 (145)

Adjusted (loss) earnings (11) (9) 26 (30) 412

Adjusted EPS, basic (0.13) (0.11) 0.30 (0.37) 4.76

Adjusted EPS, diluted (0.13) (0.11) 0.30 (0.37) 4.74

Page 8: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

Adjusted EBITDA Variance

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Financials

(US $ millions)

Q4 2019 Q4 2019 2019

vs. vs. vs.Q3 2019 Q4 2018 2018

Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 27 $ 27 $ 138

Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 33 70 724

Variance (6) (43) (586)

Mill nets(1) 11 (50) (592)

Volume(2) (20) (21) (27)

Key input prices(3) 2 3 (2)

Key input usage(3) (6) (2) (9)

Mill profit share and bonus (2) 5 35

Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4) 9 22 9

Total $ (6) $ (43) $ (586)

(1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of changes in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs)divided by shipment volumes.

(2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products.(3) The key inputs include fibre, resin, wax and energy.(4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, maintenance, and costs to ramp up the new Inverness,

Scotland line and the one-time impact of adopting the new lease standard in 2019.

Page 9: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

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Financials

(US $ millions, except per share information)

2020 Target 2019 2018

Cash provided by operating activities before cash taxes and OWC changes $ 93 $ 686

Cash taxes, net (42) (117)

Operating working capital changes (32) 39

Cash provided by operating activities 19 608

Cash provided by operating activities per share 0.23 7.03

Operating working capital 120 88

Additions to PP&E and intangible assets 100 144 205

Regular capital expenditures, including investment in intangible assets 92 166

Investment in Inverness project 28 12

Investment in Chambord rebuild 24 27

Page 10: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

Balance Sheet

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Financials

(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted) Bank Covenant

Dec 31,

2019

Oct 5,

2019

Dec 31,

2018

Long-term debt, principal value $ 665 $ 665 $ 555

Add: Other long-term debt 68 27 -

Less: Cash and cash equivalents (20) (3) (128)

Net debt 713 689 427

Less: Other long-term debt (68) (27) -

Add: Other liabilities classified as debt for financial covenant purposes

2 2 -

Add: Letters of credit and guarantees 8 11 8

Net debt for financial covenant purposes 655 675 435

Tangible net worth Min. $500 999 1,028 1,132

Net debt to capitalization, book basis Max. 65% 40% 40% 28%

Liquidity of $272 million = $20 million in cash + $237 million in revolving bank lines+ $15 million undrawn A/R securitization

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Appendices

Page 12: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

An

nu

al A

vera

ge N

C P

rice

US$

pe

r M

sf 7

/16

"

Average: $248

Historical North American OSB Prices

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Appendices

North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths

Q1 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226 293 370 211

Q2 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264 330 426 188

Q3 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301 409 363 217

Q4 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 285 379 243 223

Average 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209 269 353 351 210

Page 13: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at February 4, 2020. It is not exhaustive.

Forecast North American OSB Prices

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Appendices

Analyst 2020E 2021E

Seaport Global 299 -

Vertical Research Partners 290 335

TD Securities 285 275

Scotiabank 283 295

CIBC World Markets 275 245

Raymond James 270 -

BMO Capital Markets 260 284

RBC Capital Markets 250 265

Bank of America Merrill Lynch 243 239

Average 273 277

Annual Average

North Central

Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”

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North American OSB Industry Stated Capacity of 27 Bsf

14

Appendices

Note: Excludes OSB siding production and capacity.

Source: APA, company documents and other public filings

33 Mills in Operation

5 Mills Idle

North American OSB Installed Capacity:

11 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13 & 2017/18

Norbord Mill

Page 15: Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation · Q4 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2020. ... •This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

Financial Sensitivities

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Appendices

Exposure Change

Adjusted EBITDA Impact

(US$ millions)

North American OSB (1) (2) $10 per Msf-7/16” + $64

European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $11

Canadian dollar (1),(3) $0.01 per C$ + $6

Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1

(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the curtailed Chambord, Quebec and 100 Mile House, British Columbia mills and Line 1 at the Cordele, Georgia mill). Impact on Adjusted EBITDA of a $10 per Msf-7/16” change is ± $50 million based on the last twelve months of production at December 31, 2019.Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at December 31, 2019 – Canada C$15 million and Belgium €30 million.

(2) Estimated impact of change in Norbord’s realized North American OSB price.

(3) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares and income tax payments).