Earnings Call Aluminium Presentation Q4 2015 Gold · Earnings Call Presentation Q4 2015 January 27,...
Transcript of Earnings Call Aluminium Presentation Q4 2015 Gold · Earnings Call Presentation Q4 2015 January 27,...
0
www.maaden.com.sa
Aluminium
Phosphate
Gold
Infrastructure
Ma’aden – Saudi Arabian Mining Company
Earnings Call Presentation Q4 2015
January 27, 2015
Copper
This presentation contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, forward looking statements, including statements about the beliefs and expectations of Saudi Arabian
Mining Company (the "Company"). These statements are based on the Company's current plans, estimates and projections, as well as its expectations of external conditions
and events. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties and speak only as of the date they are made. As a result of these risks, uncertainties and
assumptions, a prospective investor should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. A number of important factors could cause actual results or
outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. The Company is not obliged to, and does not intend to, update or revise any forward-
looking statements made in this presentation whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
This communication has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of the Company. It has not been reviewed, approved or endorsed by any financial advisor, lead
manager, selling agent, receiving bank or underwriter retained by the Company. This communication is provided for information purposes only. In addition, because this
communication is a summary only, it may not contain all material terms and this communication in and of itself should not form the basis for any investment decision.
The information and opinions herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied,
is made with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy reasonableness or completeness of the information and opinions. There is no obligation to update, modify or amend
this communication or to otherwise notify you if information, opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.
You are strongly advised to seek your own independent advice in relation to any investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses
and opinions contained herein may be based on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any
representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency, rate or other market or economic measure. Furthermore, past performance is
not necessarily indicative of future results. The Company disclaims liability for any loss arising out of or in connection with your use of, or reliance on, this communication.
These materials may not be published, distributed or transmitted and may not be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without the explicit consent of Ma’aden’s management.
These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities in any jurisdiction.
Forward Looking Statement
1
Sustainability
2015 Highlights
Growth Projects
Market Outlook
Financial Highlights
Operational Performance
Summary
Engr. Khalid S. Al-Mudaifer
President & CEO
2
Integrating Sustainability
0.39
0.3
0.2
0.05 0.04 0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (LTIFR)
87% reduction in LTIFR
- .
- Achieved zero fatalities in 2015
- We continue to invest in Environment, Health & Safety (EHS)
- Implementing a strategy of beyond compliance in EHS
- Community is part of Ma’aden; we continue to positively impact
the people around our operations
- Ma’aden achieved 65.7% of Saudization in 2015
Our sustainability report 2014
1%
77%
2%
20%
Spend on Community Initiatives By Category - 2015
Community development
Education and Training
Health & welfare; water &sanitationInfrastructure
3
2015 Highlights
Despite challenging market; Ma’aden delivered its major milestones with good set of results
Although, 2015 witnessed sharp decline in commodity prices impacting our revenues and margins;
Ma’aden were able to partially mitigate by increasing volumes and reducing costs.
4
Operation - Record volumes achieved in DAP, Gold and
Aluminium - Reduction in unit cash cost in phosphate and
Aluminium businesses - Commissioning of Ad-Duwayhi and Jabal Sayid Mines - Focused progress on the ramp-up of refinery &
rolling mill
Financial - Revenue of SAR 10.96 billion, highest ever - EBITDA of SAR 3.64 billion, maintained the margins
at 33% even in challenging market - Net income of SAR 605 million - Invested SAR 13.5 billion in capex - Generated a net cash SAR 2.2 billion
2015 vs 2014 Sales Volumes (%Ch) Unit Cash cost (%Ch)
Aluminium +25% -20%
DAP / MAP +10% -5%
Gold +8.5% +7.7%
2015 vs 2014 (% Ch)
Revenue +2%
EBITDA +1%
Net Income -55%
Growth Projects
5
Copper
Aluminium - Alumina refinery achieved ~50% of capacity in 2015; ramp-up is progressing
well to achieve its nameplate capacity - Rolling Mill is progressing well; automotive mill is under technical ramp-up
2016 – MBAC commercial
Rolling mill to ramp-up and increase capacity
utilization
Phosphate
WAS project is progressing well to complete its construction in by end of 2016 - Ammonia plant has completed 85% of its construction - Overall phosphate complex is progressing well; construction
currently 65%, expected completion in end of 2016
2016 – WAS construction to complete 2016 – Ammonia trial production Early 2017 - first DAP production
Aluminium
- Alumina refinery achieved ~50% of capacity in 2015; ramp-up is progressing well to achieve its nameplate capacity
- Rolling Mill is progressing and it sold 53K tonnes of rolled products in 2015
2016 – MBAC & MRC are
ramping up to increase
capacity utilization
Copper - Commissioning of Jabal Sayid mine began in December 2015
and we produced +2,200 tonnes in December
2016 – Jabal Sayid Commercial
Exploring for more copper resources
Aluminium - Alumina refinery achieved ~50% of capacity in 2015; ramp-up is progressing
well to achieve its nameplate capacity - Rolling Mill is progressing well; automotive mill is under technical ramp-up
2016 – MBAC commercial
Rolling mill to ramp-up and increase capacity
utilization Gold - Commissioning of Ad Duwayhi began in October 2015; - Feasibility study of Mansoorah and Massarah is on track for
completion in 2016
Q1 2016 – Ad Duwyahi commercial
Exploring for more gold resources
Near term target of 500,000 oz
Commodity Progress Plans ahead
MBAC – Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Company MRC – Ma’aden Rolling Mill Company WAS – Wa’ad Al Shamal
Aluminium Market
Source: CRU December 2015, Harbor Aluminium
Monthly average LME price & forecast
- Demand of Aluminium is growing year on year
- The global Aluminium balance is set to improve in 2016; expected deficit from 2017
- Some of the major global players have
announced a series of closures which is helping to reduce the supply
- However, the market will still remain in surplus for 2016 as per CRU forecast
- The LME price has rallied from its late November low of $1,440/t, but the price has struggled to breach $1,500/t.
- The premiums (MJP) compared to last quarter have improved by US$ 20-30 per tonne
- The prices may continue to be range bound in
2016
6
Demand & Supply Forecast
350
400
450
500-15%
Feb Dec Oct Q3-
2015
Q2-
2015
Q1-
2015
Q4-
2014
Q3-
2014
Forecast
2014 Vs 2015 Key Fob index, Tampa and KSA, $/Mt
Tampa
KSA
Tampa F
KSA F
Market Overview – Ammonium Phosphate
- Overall the demand is growing at CAGR of 1.8%
- India imported ~5.8 Mt of DAP, 61% higher in 2015 and Brazil lowered its import by 27% at 2.7 Mt in 2015.
- In 2015, China became the largest DAP exporters with around 10 million tonnes, 35% more than 2014 level.
- Decline in crop prices, currency devaluation has impacted the demand in Brazil, India, East Africa, Vietnam, etc, resulting in decline in phosphate prices.
- The development in key markets have negatively impacted the prices cross the globe
- Following the lack of demand and price reduction, some of the major producers havel announced curtailment in the low season
Source: CRU Oct 2015
7
Source: Secondary Analysis, Fertcon, OANDA, CRU, CME Group and GTA
Khalid Al-Rowais
SVP, Finance & CFO
Sustainability
2015 Highlights
Growth Projects
Market Outlook
Financial Highlights
Operational Performance
Summary
8
Q4 2015 VS Q4 2014
MARKET Commodity prices declined sharply which led to the reduced revenue and income - Average LME prices of Aluminium declined
by 22.5% and the MJP premiums fell by 78.5%
- DAP and Ammonia realized prices fell by 11% and 26% respectively
- Gold realized prices declined by 11%
OPERATIONAL The positives of higher volumes and reduced cost partially offset impact - DAP sales increased by 19% - Aluminium sales increased by 7%; external
sales reduced by 19% due to higher consumption in rolling mill
- External Ammonia sale declined by 12%
FINANCIAL Net income reduced on account of - Loss from SAMAPCO - One time inventory loss - Non-recurring cost at MAC, and MIC - Low income from short-term investments
Q4 2015 Results Highlight…
SAR million Key Financial ResultsKey Financial Results - Quarter
Net income attrib. to shareholders'
of parent co.
Net income
EBITDA
Operating
income
Revenue
3,4782,541 2,659
610
263 182
5%
-31%
1,230870 776
-11%
500
122 39-68%
376
80-6
-107%
-24%
-70%
-37%
-92%
-102%
Q3-15 Q4-14
18% 10% % of Sales 7%
35% 34% % of Sales 29%
14% 5% % of Sales 2%
11% 3% % of Sales
Q4-15
Q4-15
vs.Q3-15
Q4-15
vs.Q4-14
9
- -
2015 Year End Results
SAR million Key Financial ResultsKey Financial Results - YTD
Net income attributable to
shareholders' of parent co.
Operating
income
Revenue
Net income
EBITDA
10,79210,956
1,9971,305
2%
-35%
3,595 3,644
1%
1,737
808-53%
1,357
605-55%
2014A
19% % of Sales 12%
33% % of Sales 33%
16% % of Sales 7%
13% % of Sales 6%
2015A
2015 VS 2014
MARKET Second half of 2015 witnessed a sharp decline in all commodity prices - Average LME prices of Aluminium
declined by 9% and MJP premium declined 31.6%
- DAP realized prices remained flattish - Ammonia realized prices declined by
more than 16% - Gold prices declined by 9%
OPERATIONAL - Overall, Aluminium sales increased by
26% and external sales decline by 5% on account of increased consumption in rolling mill
- External sales of Ammonia sales declined by 30% due to shutdown and higher phosphate sales
- Gold sales were higher by 8.5%
FINANCIAL - One time Inventory loss - Higher financial charges - Non-recurring cost at MAC, and MIC - Losses from SAMAPCO
10
Phosphate Business
Operational Performance - In 2015, we achieved highest ever
production and sales of 2.6 Mt of ammonium phosphate on the back of increased productivity and stable operations
- External sales of ammonia declined due to
increased consumption by ammonium phosphate plant and shutdowns of ammonia plant in 2015
- During the year, unit cash cost of
ammonium phosphate and ammonia reduced by 5% versus 2014 on account of increased efficiencies and cost improvements
- Although, sulfur prices increased by 4% in 2015, we were still able to curtail the cost.
- We have reached our capacity utilisation rates; continued focus is also to improve the efficiencies
11
Key drivers - Low cost operations - first quartile - Strategically located to the growing markets - Increasing footprint across geographies
Sales All numbers are in ‘000 tonnes, except as mentioned)
Particular Q4 2015 Q4 2014 % Ch 2015 2014 % Ch
Ammonium Phosphate
745.00 628.00 18.63% 2,634.00 2,384.00 10.49%
Ammonia 143.00 163.00 -12.27% 461.00 660.00 -30.15% Ammonium Phosphate – DAP / MAP
Marketing - Expand in market diversification, growth and penetration to new
markets (Brazil, Africa, Vietnam and Bangladesh)
- Optimizing customers cost-to-serve
Aluminium Business
Operational Performance 2015, has been an excellent year in terms of operational performance in Aluminium
- Produced and sold ~0.84 million tonnes of primary Aluminium
- During the year, Alumina refinery
produced 0.84 million tonnes of alumina
• Ma’aden reduced Aluminium cash
cost by ~20% versus 2014 on the back of increased productivity and efficiencies, increase alumina consumption from its own refinery and other cost cutting measures
• LME Prices & premiums declined sharply in 2015; which impacted revenues and margins
Key drivers - Low cost operations - Our operations boast high levels
of efficiency 12 Source: Harbor Aluminium
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
In December LME aluminum experienced a bearish rally…
January 2016
2
LME 3M ALUMINUM PRICES ($/mton; daily data)
Source: HARBOR Aluminum with LME data*Price as of January 5, 2016
Prices rallied as anticipated during the second half of December, reaching a 2-
month intraday high of $1,564 per mton on December 23. However, prices fail to
sustain levels above the $1,545 per mton multi-year technical threshold and
started to fall again in January.
$1,545
$1,430
$1,463*
AllnumbersareinUS$/tonne
Particular Q42015 Q42014 %Ch 2015 2014 %ChLMESpotCash 1,494.64 1,968.46 -24.00% 1,663.17 1,865.87 -10.90%MJPPremium 90 420 -78.50% 247.5 361.25 -31.60%
Gold Business
Operational Performance • Our Gold production and sales
increased by 6.5% and 8.5% respectively in 2015 due to higher production from Sukhayabarat and Bulgah Mines
• Q4 2015, witnessed a decline of 2.3% and 4.5% in production and sales respectively due to low grades in Mahd Ad Dahab & Al Amar mines
• Gold cash cost increased by
7.7% in 2015 versus 2014 on account of higher mining costs from As Suq, Sukhaybarat and Bulgah Mines
Key Drivers
- Ad-Duwyahi will drive cost down
- Focused exploration will increase
the reserves and resources
13
Gold Price Movement
Source: Yahoo Finance
Net Income Bridge
(All numbers are in SAR millions)
Revenue Operating Expenses -819 -61 COS 329
-52%
-92%
Q4 2015 vs Q4 2014
1,737
-1,106
51
379-49
60 46-75
-146-67 -20 -2
808
NetIncome2014A
Priceeffect
Volumeeffect
Costeffect
Selling &mktg.
G&A Explo. &Tech. serv.
Non-recur.Items
Fin.charges
Share inSAMAPCO
Short terminv. inc.& others
Zakat NetIncome2015A
500
-685
-13490
327-88
34-4
31 18-30 -29
9 39
NetIncomeQ4-14
Priceeffect
Volumeeffect
Volumeeffect
Costeffect
Invty.loss
Selling &mktg.
G&A Explo. &Tech. serv.
Fin.charges
Share inSAMAPCO
Short terminv. inc.& others
Zakat NetIncomeQ4-15
Operating Expenses 17 Gross Profit -676
2015 vs 2014
14
Segment Analysis Phosphate
Aluminum
Prec. Metals
Sales
EBITDA
2015A 2014A
52%
42%
7%
50%
43%
6%
67%
27%
6%
62%
34%
4%
15
Our Strategy
16
Building the
Third Pillar
of Saudi Industry
THANK YOU
Contact us: Ma’aden Investor Relations Email: [email protected]
Q&A
17