Early warning system based on the history of disasters in a region

Victor Stefanescu, Ph.D.D.

National Meteorological Administration of RomaniaUniversity of Bucharest – Faculty of Physics

Aim and scope of the project

RAISING AWARENESS

OF THE FORECASTERS

STATISTICS ON PAST

DISASTRUOUS EVENTS IN A COUNTRY/ARE

A

SUGGESTIONS FOR ACTION

AND MITIGATION OF

NATURAL DISASTERS

ENHANCING THE

WARNING AND

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNES

SPROCEDURES

Means to achieve the goals

RAISING AWARENESS

OF THE FORECASTERS

STATISTICS ON PAST

DISASTRUOUS EVENTS IN A COUNTRY/ARE

A

SUGGESTIONS FOR ACTION

AND MITIGATION OF

NATURAL DISASTERS

ENHANCING THE

WARNING AND

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNES

SPROCEDURES

Software system made of interconnected

applications

Means to achieve the goals

Software system made of interconnected

applications

Web application

s

Desktop applications

Relational databases (RDBMS)

Various programming languages

Methodology – based on history of past disasters

Area of interest

Previous,hazardous

context

Current context

Worst case scenarios in themselves

Hazard evaluation

Hazard assessment - Types of events

Heavy precipitation

Flash flood

Flooding of large areas

Information input

Hydrology

Meteorology GIS procedures

Software applications Data aggregation

(RDBMS)

Information output

Software applications Data aggregation

(RDBMS)

StatisticsSuggestions for

action

Output – Information flow

LEVEL 1Current context

Previous,hazardous

context

Qualitative & quantitativecomparison

Forecasters

% Probabilities %

Warning messages issued automatically

Output – Information flow

LEVEL 2

Forecasters

Warning messages

for the general public

Meteorological information

Output – Information flow

LEVEL 3

Software system

Preparedness information

Early warning

messagesfor the

authorities

Information input – Document an event

Information input – Document an event

Information output

Information output

Hazard evaluation of current context

Using a – You Are Here –

approach for identifying potentially hazardous contexts

Hazard evaluation of current context- GEOGRAPHICAL overview -

Counties in Romania with most flash flood events

You are here

Hazard evaluation of current context- TEMPORAL overview -

Monthly distribution of flash flood events

You are here

Hazard evaluation of current context- SYNOPTICAL overview -

Prevalent Grosswetterlagen during flash flood events

You are here

Hazard evaluation of current context- CLIMATOLOGICAL overview -

North Atlantic Oscillation54.8% of the events have occured when NAO was smaller than -1.075.3% of the events have occurred when NAO was in its negative

phase

You are here

Practical use

1. Improvement of hazard evaluation methods, by expanding the set of events that statisics is made upon

2. Expanding the content of hazardous weather warnings with information dedicated to:

- people who may be affected, for instance customized warnings

- people who are involved directly in disaster prevention and mitigation, for instance suggesting evacuation routes

The system is under continual development and testing.

Thank you for attending this presentation

I would like to convey, on behalf of all my colleagues, our sincerest and deepest feelings of solidarity and sympathy with the people of Japan

during their plight, caused by the March 11th earthquake and subsequent disasters.