%

20

40

60

80

100

                   

   

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Sep 2007

HENRIQUE B. PEREIRA

General Motors Powertrain

henrique.pereira @ gm.com

Year

Source: ANFAVEA Flexible Vehicle Sales Price Relationship Ethanol / Gasoline % (São Paulo)

Ethanol Vehicle Sales

                   

   

                        

         

       

   

 

                 

               

         

                 

Year

%

20

40

60

80

100

Source: ANFAVEA Flexible Vehicles Sales Price Relationship Ethanol / Gasoline % (São Paulo)

Ethanol Vehicles Sales

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

­Brazil was the first country in the world to adopt ethanol as a motor fuel.

­“Pró­Álcool” (1975) – Vehicle powered by 100% ethanol

* Car Racing (1976)

Government Fleet (1977)

Production (1979)

* All fuel stations required to pump ethanol by law

* One fuel price across the country (military government)

* Sales and registration fees incentives

* Ethanol price: enforced to be 60% of gasoline price

   

     

       

               

           

   

             

 

           

            

     

         

              

           

             

           

     

       

­ Experience

* Ethanol quality

* Poor ethanol specification

* Engine components corrosion protection

* Gasoline engine to ethanol conversion in the field

* Cold start­100% ethanol (Temperatures below 64° F)

­ Auxilliary gasoline reservoir

* High compression ratio engines for thermal efficiency

­ Brazilian fuel

Gasoline – E22 Ethanol – E100 22% Ethanol 93% (min) Ethanol 78% Gasoline 7% (max) Water

­ Introduction of new emissions regulations * Fuel injection system

* Exhaust after treatment

* Cold start improvements (Electronically Controled)

­ “Pró­Álcool” program collapsed * Sugar prices “skyrocketed” and oil prices leveled out

* Ethanol refinaries switched production to sugar

* Lack of ethanol at the fuel stations

* Ethanol price: 80% of gasoline price

* “Pró­Álcool” program lost credibility

* Ethanol vehicle market crashed

                  

                              

        

               

                      

       

   

           

       

               

           

         

                 

                   

­ First Flex fuel vehicle studies (1992) * Electronic control could automatically adjust to run on any blend of fuel from 100% ethanol down to 20% Ethanol. “Virtual sensor”

­ Ethanol prices decreased * Inventories were growing

* Ethanol price: 40% of gasoline price (by offer)

­ Flex vehicles would give customers the ability to switch as fuel market dictates

­ Challenges and Concerns for Flex

* Water separation

* Compression ratio optimization (Gasoline & Ethanol)

­ Thermal Efficiency – Keeping high compression

(Octane numbers: E22 = 92 / E100 = 105)

* Fuel consumption perception (Ethanol X Gasoline)

* Component protection against corrosion optimization

* Virtual sensor to detect different fuels in real time

­ In 2003 GM launched the first flex vehicle in the market

Hydraulics 14,8%

Uranium 1,6%

Coal 6,0%

Natural Gas 9,6%

Biomass 30,1%

oo     t er u ar  ane 

t er 

WWoodd && OOt hher  11 33%% SSuggar  CCane 11 44%% OOt hher  33%%

Petroleum 37,9%

Source MME/BEN 2006

uel  ro uction ( illions of liters­ ): t anol  , asoline  , iesel  ,

Source:ANP

FFuel PProdduction 

(BBillions of liters­22000066): EEthhanol  66,22 GGasoline 2244,00 DDiesel  3366,77

Source:ANP

GLP 13%

Oil 6% Kerosene

5%

Gasoline (E22) 27%

Diesel 42%

Hydrous Ethanol 7%

(Anhydrous Ethanol 6%)

Total ethanol 13%

                                                                                                                                       

     

 

   

      

 

 

 

   

      

 

 

      

      

 

n  

 

  L

  .

 1

 

 

       

   

   

i    

 /    .

        

   

   

     

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 J F M A M J J A S O N D

2003 J F M A M J J A S O N D

2004 J F M A M J J A S O N D

2005 J F M A M J

2006

MMi (mar/07) Source Denatran

%

Brazilian Passenger Car Production

Source ANFAVEA

Vehicle Fleet Total 28,3 i (mar/07) Source Denatran

Gasoline 23,3 Mi Flex 3,0 Mi Ethanol 2,0 Mi

Vehicle Fleet Total 28,3

Gasoline 23,3 Mi Flex 3,0 Mi Ethanol 2,0 Mi

Flexible Vehicle Sales

Ethanol Vehicle Sales Gasoline Vehicle Sales

Corsa 1.8L

Mo tana 1.8L

Meriva 1.8L

Zafira 2.0

Astra 2 0L

Celta .0L

Vectra 2.0/2.4L

Classic 1.0L

Corsa 1.0 / 1.8L GV

Montana 1.8L GV

Meriva 1.8L GV

Pr sma 1.4L

S10 Blazer 2 4L

2007

100 %

2003 2004 2005 2006

3 % 25 % 50 % 95 %

Corsa 1.4 GV

Montana 1.4L GV

Passenger Vehicles ­ Brazilian Market

CCit yy

itEthanol

Gasoline

Example: Today in São Paulo  WWhheenn PPrriiccee RReellaatt iioonnsshhiipp 

 EEtthhaannooll //GGaassooll iinnee iiss bbeellooww tthhaann 7700%%,, iitt iiss aann 

              

4488 aa%% ddvvaannttaaggee ttoo rruunn oonn 

EEtthhaannooll..

WWhheenn PPrriiccee RReellaatt iioonnsshhiipp     EEtthhaannooll //GGaassooll iinnee iiss 

hhiigghheerr    

tthhaann 7700%%,, iitt iiss aann      

       aaddvvaannttaaggee ttoo rruunn oonn 

GGaassooll iinnee..

TToopp SSppeeeedd AAcccceelleerraatt iioonn 00­110000 kkmm//hh    ­  

189 km/h 10.4 s

190 km/h 10.1 s

EEllaasstt iiccii ttyy 4400 aatt 110000 kkmm//hh EEllaasstt iiccii ttyy 8800 aatt 112200 kkmm//hh               

14.2 s 13.4 s

13.2 s 13.2 s

FFuueell CCoonnssuummpptt iioonn 

11.6 km/L

8.1 km/L HHi gghhwwaayy

i

17.4 km/L

12.0 km/L

625 km RRaannggee

CCoommbbi nnee dd

i

14.2 km/L

9.9 km/L

GGaassooll iinnee

436 km EEtthhaannooll

   

           

   

             

 

 

 

             

 

 

 

                 

                     

                   

                  

     

                     

               

   

                         

           

                   

         

­ Cold start improvements

* Cold Start without auxilliary Gasoline reservoir

­ Engine thermal management

* Temperature adjustment for each different fuel blend

­ Optimize Compression Ratio

* Increased Efficiency

* Reduced Fuel Consumption

­ Turbocharging

* Variable compression according to the fuel blend

­ Direct Injection Engines (SIDI)

* Further Increased Efficiency

* Further Reduced Fuel Consumption

­Known exhaust emissions standards (Except for California) are not a

restriction to Flex Fuel vehicles. Diagnosis (OBD) is still a challenge.

­ Ethanol price fluctuation and its availability in the market substantially

affects customer decisions on vehicle purchase. The Flex Fuel

architecture eliminates this factor.

­The Flex Fuel technology is mature and can be applied worldwide, the

implementation is dependent on Emissions Standards, Diagnosis Level

and portfolio size.

­ Challenge to expand the Flex Fuel vehicles to other countries is on the

availability of ethanol and channels of distribution.

­ Distribution of E85 instead of E100 enables elimination of cold starting

devices and therefore, should be preferred.