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Transcript of DSD-INT 2014 - Delft3D Users Meeting - Application of Delft3D in an Operational Forecasting System,...
www.tetratech.com
Weather Forecasting Services during
Marine Operations in the Angra dos Reis
Bay (RJ)
Application of Delft3D in an Operational Forecasting System
Delft3D Users Meeting 2014
INTRODUCTION
• In support for marine operations in Angra dos Reis Bay, Tetra Tech performed forecasting services of meteoceanographic conditions;
• Forecasts were obtained through a refined operational modeling system, coupling atmospheric and oceanic components;
• Local measurements of atmospheric, hydrodynamic and wave parameters were used to validate the numerical modeling products prior to the start of operations;
• During the marine operations period forecasting bulletins were provided with updating intervals of 12 hours.
STUDY LOCATION
• The Ilha Grande Bay is located in the Southern coast of
the state of Rio de Janeiro;
• This region has great importance ecologically, for
tourism and for the fishing industry, holding biological
reserves and environmentally protected areas;
• On the coast, besides the Central Nuclear Almirante
Álvaro Alberto – CNAAA (Nuclear Central Almirante
Álvaro Alberto), there are shipyard industries.
STUDY LOCATION
CIRCULATION PATTERNS
• According to Signorini (1980)
The circulation of the partially mixed estuarine system,
formed by the Ilha Grande Bay (IGB) and Sepetiba Bay
(SEPB), results from effects of tides, winds and density
gradients.
It can be observed the presence of a clockwise
(west-east) flux around Ilha Grande.
• The measured currents show a
clockwise (54,6% to E) and a
counter-clockwise flux
(41,2% to W).
OPERATIONAL PROCEDURE
• Bulletin updates were sent twice a day with forecasts for the following 72 hours of the environmental conditions predicted by the modeling system
• An alert system was implemented in the bulletins, indicating when the forecasted environmental conditions were according to established thresholds for the execution of transport and lifting procedures. The threshold values were given by the contractor for each procedure as:
Conditions for transport:
• Wind speed ≤ 14 knots
• Current speed ≤ 0.3 m/s
• Wave peak period (Tp) ≤ 10 s
• Significant wave height (Hs) ≤ 0.3 m
Conditions for lifting:
• Wind speed ≤ 10 knots
• Wave peak period (Tp) ≤ 7 s
• Significant wave height (Hs) ≤ 0.3 m
BULLETIN
EXAMPLE (1)
BULLETIN
EXAMPLE (2)
NUMERICAL MODELS
• The operational procedure to generate the metocean
forecasts in the Angra dos Reis Bay region was
composed with three kinds of numerical models:
Atmospheric model (WRF)
Two wave models (WW3 and SWAN)
Hydrodynamic model (Delft3D)
ATMOSPHERIC MODEL
• WRF (Weather Reserch and Forecasting)
NMM core (Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model), developed by
north American centers NOAA and NCEP.
Forced with global model data from the GFS (Global
Forecasting System), with spatial resolution of 0.5° and 3-
hour intervals. The GFS was developed and is maintained
by NCEP, with online available outputs in the spatial and
temporal resolution mentioned.
The WRF-NMM model was setup with two nested grids. The
coarser domain covered the Southeast region of Brazil, and
the second grid was refined over the coastal area.
WAVE MODEL
• Two third generation models were used:
WAVEWATCH III (WW3) and SWAN (Simulating
WAves Nearshore)
• Output results from WW3 were used as boundary
conditions for SWAN’s local grid, in a chain from
smaller to higher resolution grids.
• The high resolution atmospheric pressure and wind
fields from WRF outputs were also used for forcing
the high resolution SWAN grids.
HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL
• Delft3D-FLOW Hydrodynamic Model was
implemented in Angra dos Reis - Ilha Grande Bay;
• Delft3D-FLOW ran in a Domain Decomposition
scheme:
The outside grid (lower resolution grid) had 126 x 68 grid
cells and the high resolution grid had 104 x 86 grid cells
Horizontal resolution ranging from 1 kilometer to 300 meters
On the vertical axis 10 sigma layers have been used
High resolution bathymetric data was imposed in the
operations region
Hydrodynamic Forcing
• Meteorological forcing: outputs from the
atmospheric model WRF;
• 40 Riemann Boundaries (south, east and west)
* 10 sigma layers
HYCOM + TPXO composition
Riemann Invariants enable Delft3D to capture the
continental shelf dynamics and incorporate low frequency
signs
Riemann Invariants
25 Riemann Boundaries
8 Riemann Boundaries
7 Riemann
Boundaries
HYCOM (daily water level and currents) + TPXO
10 sigma layers
OPERATIONAL PROCEDURE FOR
DELFT3D
• WRF (wind and pressure) and HYCOM (currents and elevation) files are obtained from the FTP directory;
• The forcing (.bct and meteo) files for Delft3D are generated;
• The .mdf scenario is created;
• The restart files are copied from the last run (from 12 hours later);
• New scenario runs;
• The output files are generated by Quickplot;
• The output files are copied to the FTP.
A matlab script runs all the specified above twice a day.
MODEL EVALUATION
• The model was calibrated and validated through the
comparison of its results against measured data and
tidal prediction
• Tides (tidal prediction Angra dos Reis station)
RMAE 20
Index of Agreement 0,99
MODEL EVALUATION
• Currents (ADCP)
At this point there is a clockwise current with some
inversions to counter clockwise
The model represents this pattern coherently
Riemann Tide
Index of agreement U comp. = 0,68
Index of agreement V comp. = 0,64 Index of agreement U comp. = 0,32
Index of agreement V comp. = 0,40
CONCLUSIONS
• Delft3D system was successfully applied at the study area and proved to be a rugged tool, able to perform the coupling with HYCOM;
• Without using HYCOM results the system was not able to represent the circulation pattern of the area;
• The coupling between the numerical grids using domain decomposition technique solved properly the circulation dynamic at the boundaries we used a lower resolution (outside the bay, where there are HYCOM results) and at the study area we used a higher resolution (2nd grid).
Eduardo Yassuda
Clarissa Brelinger De Luca
Maria Fernanda Mendes Fiedler
TETRA TECH BRASIL
Engenharia Costeira & Oceanografia
Tel: +55 11 3095-5050
Rua Fidalga, 711 | São Paulo, SP 05432-070 | www.tetratech.com
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