Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china
Drought monitor in China - wamis.org · Drought in China is of the features of high...
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Drought monitor in China
Transcript of Drought monitor in China - wamis.org · Drought in China is of the features of high...
Drought monitor in China
• Every year, there are many kinds of climate disasters occurred in China. They bring about serious loss to national economy, particularly to Agriculture.
• In China, drought and flood are major climatic disasters. Drought in China is of the features of high frequency，long duration and broad affected-area.
Climate Events/Disasters Monitoring and Assessment system
Drought is major disaster in China.Drought is major disaster in China.
Proportion of areas (a) and directly economic loss (b) suffered from the main meteorological disasters over China in 2004.
Background
Flood21%
Severeconvective
weather17%
Typhoon2%
Frost andfrozen11%
Drought49%
Flood 33%
Drought23%
Frost andfrozen
disaster 6%
Typhoon17%
severeconvective
weather21%
NCC drought operational system and service
Drought monitoring
Information collection of Drought disaster
Drought Assessment
Weather ForecastWeekly advance
Climate PredictionMonthly, flood season, annual……
Drought Pre-Assessment and early warning
Climate scenarios
Drought Counter-measure
Drought service
for various users
Products
The flow chart of drought monitoring operational system
Monitor
Drought information
data bank
warning
Synthetic analysis
Drought monitoring brief report
Real time data Quality verification
Historic data bankReal time data bank
Statistic ( drought Indexes)prediction of precipitationin the coming 7 days
Graphics
Drought Indexes• Percentage of Precipitation anomaly • Standard Precipitation Index (USA)• CI• PDSI (USA)• Soil moisture derived by Thermal
Inertia Method from Remote sensing • Observed soil relative moisture
Index : Compound Index
Stations:more than 600 in China
Time step : Monitor on daily for recent 30 days
• This index is fit to drought monitor on real time and drought assessment for the period
• Z30 and Z90 are SPI of recent 30 days and 90 days, represent the abnormal condition on monthly and seasonal scale.
• M30 is relative moisture index of recent 30 days, represent water deficit. ,PE is potential evapotranspiration, P is precipitaion
• a,b,c are parameters, = 0.4, 0.4, 0.8
309030 cMbZaZCI
PEPEPM
Grades Drought CI
1 No -0.6＜ CI
2 Weak -1.2＜ CI ≤ -0.6
3 Moderate -1.8＜ CI≤ -1.2
4 Sever -2.4＜ CI≤ -1.8
5 Extreme CI≤ -2.4
Classification of Drought Intensity
Development of drought in Chongqing and Sichuanduring August, 2006.
Aug.1
Aug.10
Aug.17
Aug.31
Precipitation Anomaly of November 2008 to January 2009
50%-80% less than normal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
年
降水量（毫米）
降水量
1971-2000年平均
Precipitation is less than normal obviously
11.6mm
Regional mean of total precipitation from November to Januaryover Winter wheat areas of China during 1952 to 2009
65
70
75
80
85
90
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
年
无降水日数（天）
历年值 1971-2000年平均
85.1 days
Regional mean of total nonprecipitation days from November to January over Winter wheat areas of China during 1952 to 2009
With more Nonprecipitation days
High temperature
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
年
气温（°C）
气温
1971-2000年平均
0.7℃ high than normal
Regional mean of total Temperature from November to Januaryover Winter wheat areas of China during 1952 to 2009
Extreme
Drought occurred in Winter wheat areas of China
Drought monitored in January 31,2009
Drought changes Since January 2009
1月15日
January 01,2009
January 15,2009
January 31,2009
February 15,2009
Drought briefing and discussion
• Weekly meeting with National Meteorological satellite Center, National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Science Academy.
• Occasional meeting with Provincial Meteorological Services
Impact of drought on national economy
Drought
Agriculture
Industry
Hydro-electricity
Sandstorm
Forest fireWater resources Ecosystem
Urban
People & Health
Ship Transportation and tourism
Products and Service
Name:
China Droughts and Flood Bulletin
Periodical:
Weekly
Name:
Drought watch
Periodical:
Monthly
Contents:
Precipitation, drought monitoring, and prediction of precipitation in coming 30 days on global scale.
bcc.cma.gov.cn /en
Drought Monitoring and Warning program was shown on CCTV since July of 2004. Now release information weekly
图2 北方冬麦干旱区气象干旱监测图（左：2月7日；右：2月13日）
图3 北方冬麦旱区土壤水分动态分析图（10厘米）(左：2月7日；右：2月13日)
2月2日山西太谷县旱地
2月2日山西太谷县旱地
2月2日山西太谷县水浇麦田
2月2日山西太谷县水浇麦田
