Slide 1

Drift of solar constants for the Earth (1), Venus (2) and Marc (3) due to increasing of Suns luminosity. Within an interval formed by carves 4 and 5 the Earths type of climate is not principally varied.

Slide 2

Variation of 2 concentration in the atmosphere

Slide 3

Temperature deviation from todays value 1 calculation [Budyko et al., 1985] 2 interpretation of proxy indicators [Frakes, 1979]

Slide 4

Variation of 2 concentration in the atmosphere

Slide 5

Measured concentration of 18 O in surface planktonies [Imbrie et al., 1984] 5e5e 5d5d 1 2 6 1, 2, 5e, 5d, 6 are some isotopic stages

Slide 6

Changes of temperature in north western part of Russian Plane ( 0 C) [Klimanov, 1996.] July JanuaryYear YD Al YD Younger Dryas, Al Allered, AT Atlantic warm event AT

Slide 7

Northern summer temperature changes ( 0 ) [Bradley, Jones, 1993] Temperature changes ( 0 ), based on measurements in holes Changes of Alpian glaciers length [Oerlemans, 1994] Glaciers: 1 Untere Grindelwaldgletscher, 2 Rhonegletscher, 3 Glacier dArgentiere

Slide 8

Climate dynamics and insolation change during last 140 . Parameters of the Earths orbit 10 3 years BP eccentricity obliquity precession summerwinter Insolation at the top of the atmosphere 18 O

Slide 9

Latitude-month distribution of the difference in insolation (W/m 2 ) between 21 and 6 ka and the present 21 ka BP 6 ka BP

Slide 10

Equation of the general circulation model (GCM) dX/dt=F, X=X(0)

Slide 11

Global surface air temperature 21 ka BP-control from different GCMs Simulations forced by CLIMAP SSTs Simulations with atmosphere-mixed layer ocean model

Slide 12

Mean annual temperature anomalies (LGM minus modern) averaged by PMIP models Sites where LGM temperatures have been reconstructed

Slide 13

Comparison between reconstructed and simulated mean annual temperatures anomalies (LGM minus modern) over the land for all available sites

Slide 14

Comparison between reconstructed and simulated mean annual temperatures anomalies (LGM minus modern) over the land for the sites from the areas with simple topography and environments 1 Western Europe and North Africa 2 - East European Plane 3 North-East North America 4 West Siberian Plane 5 Eastern Siberia and Chukotka 6 Greenland 7 Antarctica 8 Mongolia and North China 9 Brazil 10 South Africa 11 Australia

Slide 15

Comparison between reconstructed and simulated mean annual temperatures anomalies (LGM minus modern) over the land averaged by the regions pointed in the legend 1 Western Europe (9) and North Africa (1) 2 - East European Plane (5) 3 North-East North America (4) 4 West Siberian Plane (10) 5 Eastern Siberia and Chukotka (6) 6 Greenland (1) 7 Antarctica (1) 8 Mongolia (2) and North China (2) 9 Brazil (1) 10 South Africa (2) 11 Australia (1)

Slide 16

Mean annual precipitation anomalies (LGM minus modern) averaged by PMIP models

Slide 17

Latitude-month distribution of the difference in insolation (W/m 2 ) between 21 and 6 ka and the present 21 ka BP 6 ka BP

Slide 18

PMIP-model averaged temperature anomalies ( 0 ) and anomalies of precipitation (mm/day) 6 ka BP (june, july, august)

Slide 19

Relationship between precipitation changes over northern India and changes of surface air temperature over central Asia models

Slide 20

Temperature ( 0 C) and precipitation (mm/day) anomalies for July, 6-0 ka BP Simulated and recorded temperature anomalies over land MSU model

Slide 21

Changes in zonal annual mean precipitation averaged over Northern Africa (6 0 ka BP, PMIP results) Max and min bounds for the excess precipitation to support grassland

Slide 22

Changes in zonal annual mean precipitation averaged over Northern Africa (6 0 ka BP, PMIP results) and impact of ocean feedback Coupled atmosphere-ocean simulation

Slide 23

Changes of temperature in north western part of Russian Plane ( 0 C) [Klimanov, 1996.] July JanuaryYear YD Al YD Younger Dryas, Al Allered, AT Atlantic warm event AT

Slide 24

Scheme of glaciation of the North America during the Younger Dryase and routes of meltwater discharge

Slide 25

Time series of the deviation of salinity, sea surface temperature ( 0 C) and ice (sm) from their initial values in the Denmark Strait Fresh water input to the northern North Atlantic (1250-year time integration of GFDL model) Response of the thermochaline circulation of the North Atlantic to fresh water input to its northern part (1) and Caribean region (2)

Slide 26

Measured concentration of 18 O in surface planktonies [Imbrie et al., 1984] 5e5e 5d5d 1 2 6 1, 2, 5e, 5d, 6 are some isotopic stages

Slide 27

White noice Red noice Milankovitch cycles

Slide 28

Red noice

Slide 29

Oscillator for global climate change dT/dt= T(t)+v = 1 + 2 + 3 Scaling time and T denotes the delta-function is the nondimensional delay, measures the influence of the returning signal

Slide 30

Linear stability analysis T 0 =0, (1- ) 1/2 T 0 - T 0 -T 0 3 =0 0.5 0 5 10 y=T-T 0 Perturbation from the stationary solution The neutral curve: