Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707....

47
Downslope Windstorms Downslope Windstorms and Rotors and Rotors Jonathan Vigh Jonathan Vigh AT707 AT707 21,23,25 February 2005 21,23,25 February 2005

Transcript of Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707....

Page 1: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Dow

nslo

pe W

inds

torm

s D

owns

lope

Win

dsto

rms

and

Rot

ors

and

Rot

ors

Jona

than

Vig

hJo

nath

an V

igh

AT7

07A

T707

21,2

3,25

Feb

ruar

y 20

0521

,23,

25 F

ebru

ary

2005

Page 2: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Asp

ects

of f

low

ove

r bar

riers

Asp

ects

of f

low

ove

r bar

riers

•2D

mou

ntai

n w

aves

•Fl

ow o

ver/a

roun

d is

olat

ed h

ills

•B

lock

ing

by la

rge

ampl

itude

mou

ntai

ns–

Gap

flow

s, fu

nnel

ing

–C

old

air d

amm

ing,

bar

rier j

ets

•Fö

hn a

nd B

ora

win

ds•

Dow

nslo

pe w

inds

torm

s•

Ther

mal

ly-d

riven

circ

ulat

ions

(slo

pe w

inds

, mou

ntai

n w

inds

, val

ley

win

ds),

kata

batic

win

ds•

Oro

grap

hic

cont

rol o

f pre

cipi

tatio

n•

Qua

si-g

eost

roph

ic fl

ow o

ver a

mou

ntai

n•

Lee

cycl

ogen

esis

•G

ravi

ty w

ave

drag

Page 3: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Nam

ing

conv

entio

ns a

nd

Nam

ing

conv

entio

ns a

nd

term

inol

ogy

term

inol

ogy

Wha

t are

the

diffe

rent

type

s of

dow

nslo

pe w

inds

and

whe

re d

o th

ey

occu

r?Fö

hnw

inds

(war

min

g w

inds

)Fö

hn(A

lps)

, Chi

nook

(Roc

kies

), zo

nda

(eas

tern

And

es),

pulc

he(w

este

rn A

ndes

), S

anta

Ana

(sou

ther

n C

alifo

rnia

), su

ndow

ner(

San

ta

Bar

bara

, CA

), be

rg(S

outh

Afri

ca),

kosc

hava

and

ljuka

(Cro

atia

), ge

rmic

h(S

W C

aspi

an S

ea),

afga

neta

nd ib

e(C

entra

l Asi

a), k

achc

han

(Sri

Lank

a), C

ante

rbur

y no

rth-w

este

r(N

ew Z

eala

nd)

Bor

aw

inds

(coo

ling

win

ds)

bora

(Cro

atia

), m

istra

l(Fr

ance

)G

lenn

(196

1) c

oncl

uded

that

ther

e w

as n

o sa

tisfa

ctor

y de

finiti

onfo

r a

Föhn

flow

–Y

oshi

no (1

975)

sai

d th

at th

e de

finiti

on s

houl

d si

mpl

y be

bas

ed o

n w

heth

er th

e te

mpe

ratu

re o

f the

dow

nslo

pe fl

owin

g ai

r was

war

mer

or

cool

er th

an th

e ai

r it w

as d

ispl

acin

g–

Chi

nook

s an

d bo

ras

do n

ot a

lway

s ha

ve s

ever

e w

inds

It is

bes

t to

just

cal

l thi

s ph

enom

enon

“dow

nslo

pe w

inds

torm

”or

“sev

ere

dow

nslo

pe w

inds

torm

Page 4: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Föhn

and

bor

a w

inds

of th

e W

este

rn U

.S.

Gap

flow

s be

twee

n m

ount

ains

of E

urop

e

Figu

res

from

Whi

tem

an (2

000)

Page 5: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

A fe

w n

otes

on

the

Chi

nook

A fe

w n

otes

on

the

Chi

nook

Why

are

Chi

nook

s w

arm

?Th

e de

scen

ding

air

can

be w

arm

er fo

r one

or m

ore

reas

ons:

•C

ompr

essi

onal

hea

ting

as a

ir de

scen

ds th

e le

e si

de o

f th

e m

ount

ain

(air

war

ms

acco

rdin

g to

the

dry

adia

batic

la

pse

rate

: 9.8

°C

per

km

of d

esce

nt)

•La

tent

hea

t of c

onde

nsat

ion

(Hah

n ef

fect

): ai

r asc

ends

m

oist

adi

abat

ical

ly (c

oolin

g ~5

°C p

er k

m) o

n w

indw

ard

side

of m

ount

ain

whi

le p

reci

pita

tion

is p

rodu

ced,

then

de

scen

ds d

ry a

diab

atic

ally

on

the

leew

ard

side

•B

lock

ing

on th

e w

indw

ard

side

of t

he m

ount

ain

can

caus

e ai

r to

desc

end

from

a h

ighe

r lev

el (h

ighe

r θ)

•D

ispl

acem

ent o

f col

d ai

r by

war

mer

air

•N

ight

time

mix

ing

Oth

er p

ecul

iarit

ies

can

occu

r if a

col

d po

ol is

pre

sent

–W

aves

can

pro

paga

te o

n th

e in

vers

ion

surfa

ce (s

ee

Bla

ck H

ills p

aper

)–

Mira

ges

can

mak

e th

e m

ount

ains

look

hig

her

Figu

res

from

Whi

tem

an (2

000)

Page 6: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Not

able

Bou

lder

Win

dsto

rms

Not

able

Bou

lder

Win

dsto

rms

7-8

Janu

ary

1969

–13

0 m

ph a

t NC

AR, 9

6 m

ph d

ownt

own

–1

deat

h23

Jan

uary

197

1–

147

mph

at N

CAR

11 J

anua

ry 1

972

–w

ind

gust

s to

97

mph

–40

trai

lers

dam

aged

–$3

milli

on d

amag

e4

Dec

embe

r 197

8–

148

mph

at ?

–1

deat

h17

Jan

uary

198

2–

137

mph

at N

CAR

–20

gus

ts a

bove

120

mph

in 4

5 m

in!

–At

leas

t 15

inju

ries

–$2

0 m

illion

dam

age,

40%

of B

ould

er b

uild

ings

dam

aged

!24

Jan

uary

198

2–

140

mph

at W

onde

rvu

24 S

epte

mbe

r 198

6–

131

mph

at ?

–$1

00,0

00 d

amag

e24

Jan

uary

199

2•

143

mph

(kt?

) nor

th B

ould

er2-

3 Fe

brua

ry 1

999

–12

7 m

ph a

t Sug

arlo

af, 1

20 m

p in

Laf

ayet

te, 1

19 m

ph in

Won

derv

u,

100

mph

in L

ongm

ont,

98 m

ph in

Bou

lder

–$3

milli

on d

amag

e8-

10 A

pril

1999

–12

0 m

ph a

t Sug

arlo

af, n

ear 1

00 m

ph in

sou

th B

ould

er, 9

0 m

ph in

Lo

ngm

ont

–$2

0 m

illion

dam

age

from

Pue

blo

to F

ort C

ollin

s

From

196

7-19

95, w

inds

> 1

00 m

ph o

ccur

red

35 ti

mes

Dam

age

in S

outh

Bou

lder

from

the

8 Ja

nuar

y 19

69

win

dsto

rm (E

d Zi

pser

)

Pho

tos

cour

tesy

of U

CA

R

Sou

rce:

http

://w

ww

.co.

boul

der.c

o.us

/she

riff/p

df/o

em/h

ighw

ind.

pdfa

nd h

ttp://

ww

w.c

dc.n

oaa.

gov/

Bou

lder

/win

d.ht

ml

Page 7: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Win

dsto

rm D

amag

eW

inds

torm

Dam

age

•A

ccor

ding

to R

MIIA

, Col

orad

o's

top

five

mos

t co

stly

win

dsto

rms

are:

–$2

0 m

illio

n in

insu

red

dam

age

occu

rred

alo

ng th

e Fr

ont R

ange

on

Apr

il 8-

10, 1

999.

$20

mill

ion

in in

sure

d da

mag

e oc

curr

ed in

Bou

lder

C

ount

y on

Jan

. 17,

198

2.

–$1

0 m

illio

n in

insu

red

dam

age

occu

rred

alo

ng th

e Fr

ont R

ange

on

Jan.

28-

29, 1

987.

$5.2

mill

ion

in in

sure

d da

mag

e oc

curr

ed a

long

the

Fron

t Ran

ge o

n O

ct. 2

9, 1

996.

$3 m

illio

n in

insu

red

dam

age

occu

rred

alo

ng th

e Fr

ont

Ran

ge o

n Fe

b. 2

-3, 1

999.

Page 8: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Obs

erva

tions

from

196

8 Fi

eld

Pro

ject

Obs

erva

tions

from

196

8 Fi

eld

Pro

ject

Figu

re fr

om K

uettn

er a

nd L

illy

(196

8)

Page 9: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Figu

re fr

om

Kue

ttner

an

d Li

lly

(196

8)

Page 10: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Dat

a fro

m a

com

posi

te s

tudy

Dat

a fro

m a

com

posi

te s

tudy

Figu

res

from

Brin

kman

n (1

974)

Page 11: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Com

posi

te s

ound

ings

at o

nset

of

Com

posi

te s

ound

ings

at o

nset

of

Bou

lder

win

dsto

rms

Bou

lder

win

dsto

rms

Not

e th

at b

ase

of is

othe

rmal

leve

l is

575

in th

e up

stre

am s

ound

ing,

but

is lo

wer

(650

mb)

in th

e do

wns

tream

sou

ndin

g.A

lso,

dow

nstre

am s

ound

ing

has

stee

per l

apse

rate

, hig

her θ

at lo

wer

leve

lsFi

gure

s fro

m B

rinkm

ann

(197

4)

Page 12: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Com

posi

te D

enve

r sou

ndin

gs fo

r C

ompo

site

Den

ver s

ound

ings

for

diffe

rent

type

s of

win

dsto

rms

diffe

rent

type

s of

win

dsto

rms

•D

owns

tream

so

undi

ng

com

posi

tes

–In

vers

ion

leve

l av

erag

es ~

675

mb

for B

ould

er

win

d ca

ses

–~6

25 m

b fo

r slo

pe

win

d ca

ses

Figu

res

from

Brin

kman

n (1

974)

Page 13: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Obs

erva

tions

from

the

11 J

anua

ry

Obs

erva

tions

from

the

11 J

anua

ry

1972

Win

dsto

rm19

72 W

inds

torm

Figu

re fr

om

Lilly

(197

8)

Page 14: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Figu

re fr

om L

illy

(197

8)

Page 15: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Figu

res

from

Lill

y (1

978)

Page 16: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

•P

ress

ure

trace

s du

ring

a w

inds

torm

•N

ote

in

parti

cula

r the

su

dden

pr

essu

re d

rop

at

Bou

lder

dur

ing

the

stor

m•

Is th

is c

ausi

ng

the

high

win

ds?

Figu

re fr

om L

illy

and

Zips

er (1

972)

Page 17: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Dow

nslo

pe W

inds

torm

D

owns

lope

Win

dsto

rm

Mec

hani

sms

Mec

hani

sms

Ther

e ar

e 3

prop

osed

m

echa

nism

s fo

r dow

nslo

pe

win

dsto

rms:

1.D

evel

op w

hen

the

flow

ove

r a

mou

ntai

n tra

nsiti

ons

from

su

bcrit

ical

-> s

uper

criti

cal

over

the

mou

ntai

n,

anal

ogou

s to

a h

ydra

ulic

ju

mp

2.La

rge-

ampl

itude

ver

tical

ly-

prop

agat

ing

mou

ntai

n w

aves

that

und

ergo

par

tial

refle

ctio

n at

inte

rface

s –

prop

erly

‘tun

ed’ w

aves

re

sona

te w

ith in

crea

sing

am

plitu

de3.

Wav

e br

eaki

ng a

nd w

ave-

indu

ced

criti

cal l

ayer

s

Ver

tical

ly p

ropa

gatin

g w

aves

with

larg

e am

plitu

deTr

appe

d le

e w

aves

un

derg

oing

refle

ctio

n

Figu

res

from

Whi

tefie

ld (2

000)

Page 18: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Long

’s H

ydra

ulic

Jum

p (1

953a

)Lo

ng’s

Hyd

raul

ic J

ump

(195

3a)

•H

omog

eneo

us fl

uid

flow

ing

over

rid

ge-li

ke o

bsta

cle.

Ass

ume

flow

is

in h

ydro

stat

ic b

alan

ce a

nd

boun

ded

by fr

ee s

urfa

ce.

•C

onsi

der y

-inde

pend

ent m

otio

ns•

Ass

ume

stea

dy-s

tate

flow

.

0=

∂∂+

∂∂+

∂∂xh

gxD

gxu

u Whe

re D

is th

e th

ickn

ess

of th

e flu

id

and

his

the

obst

acle

hei

ght.

Usi

ng th

e co

ntin

uity

equ

atio

n

gDuFr

xhxh

DFr

22

2 w

here

)(

)1

1(

=

∂∂=

∂+∂

−0

)(

=∂

∂xuD

Mos

t peo

ple

Inte

rpre

t Fr2

as th

e Fr

oude

#. H

ere

it is

a ra

tio o

f the

flui

d sp

eed

to

the

prop

agat

ion

spee

d of

sh

allo

w li

near

gra

vity

wav

es

we

get:

So

the

free

surfa

ce c

an e

ither

rise

or

fall

depe

ndin

g on

the

mag

nitu

de o

f Fr2

Page 19: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Sup

ercr

itica

l cas

eS

uper

criti

cal c

ase

Flui

d th

icke

ns a

nd s

low

s as

it c

ross

es to

p of

ob

stac

le, m

inim

um s

peed

at c

rest

Sch

emat

ic fr

om D

urra

n (1

990)

Page 20: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Sub

criti

cal c

ase

Sub

criti

cal c

ase

Flui

d th

ins

and

acce

lera

tes

as it

cro

sses

top

of

obst

acle

, rea

ches

max

imum

spe

ed a

t cre

st

Sch

emat

ic fr

om D

urra

n (1

990)

Page 21: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Hyd

raul

ic ju

mp

case

Hyd

raul

ic ju

mp

case

Flow

tran

sitio

ns fr

om

subc

ritic

al to

su

perc

ritic

al a

t top

of

obst

acle

, pot

entia

l en

ergy

is c

onve

rted

to

kine

tic e

nerg

y ov

er

the

entir

e ba

rrie

rFi

gure

from

Lon

g (1

953a

)

Sch

emat

ic fr

om D

urra

n (1

990)

Page 22: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Fore

cast

ing

Fore

cast

ing

Ther

e ap

pear

to b

e at

leas

t thr

ee m

echa

nism

s w

hich

can

ca

use

the

flow

to u

nder

go tr

ansi

tion

from

sub

criti

cal t

o su

perc

ritic

al:

1. W

ave

brea

king

-in

an

atm

osph

ere

with

con

stan

t N a

nd u

0; m

ount

ain

larg

e en

ough

to c

ause

bre

akin

g w

aves

(Cla

rk a

nd

Pel

tier 1

977)

2.

Sco

rer-p

aram

eter

laye

ring

–in

an

atm

osph

ere

with

con

stan

t u0

and

two

laye

rs o

f N: m

ount

ain

too

smal

l to

caus

e br

eaki

ng

wav

es (D

urra

n 19

86a)

3. C

appi

ng b

y a

mea

n-st

ate

criti

cal l

ayer

: in

an a

tmos

pher

e w

ith

cons

tant

N a

nd u

0be

low

a c

ritic

al la

yer,

whe

re in

the

abse

nce

of

the

criti

cal l

ayer

, the

mou

ntai

n is

too

smal

l to

caus

e br

eaki

ng

wav

esO

ther

mec

hani

sms:

wav

e-in

duce

d cr

itica

l lay

ers?

Page 23: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Gen

eral

dev

elop

men

t G

ener

al d

evel

opm

ent

char

acte

ristic

sch

arac

teris

tics

•Fo

r the

cas

e of

dee

p cr

oss-

mou

ntai

n flo

w a

nd n

o m

ean-

stat

e cr

itica

l lay

er, o

bser

vatio

ns s

ugge

st a

win

dsto

rm w

ill

occu

r whe

n:–

Win

d is

dire

cted

acr

oss

mou

ntai

n (w

ithin

30°

of p

erpe

ndic

ular

to

ridge

line)

and

win

d at

mou

ntai

ntop

leve

l exc

eeds

a te

rrai

n de

pend

ent v

alue

of 7

to 1

5 m

s-1

–U

pstre

am te

mpe

ratu

re p

rofil

e ex

hibi

ts a

n in

vers

ion

or a

laye

r of

stro

ng s

tabi

lity

near

mou

ntai

ntop

leve

l (C

olso

n 19

54; B

rinkm

ann

1974

)Th

ese

cond

ition

s fa

vor d

evel

opm

ent o

f a d

owns

lope

sto

rm

by c

reat

ing

cond

ition

s si

mila

r to

Sco

rer p

aram

eter

la

yerin

g. T

hey

also

pro

mot

e th

e de

velo

pmen

t of l

arge

r am

plitu

de m

ount

ain

wav

es, i

ncre

asin

g th

e ch

ance

s fo

r br

eaki

ng w

aves

. Bre

akin

g w

aves

are

favo

red

whe

n th

e up

per t

ropo

sphe

ric w

inds

are

not

too

stro

ng.

Page 24: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

The

effe

ct o

f a m

ount

aint

op

The

effe

ct o

f a m

ount

aint

op

inve

rsio

nin

vers

ion

Figu

re fr

om D

urra

n (1

990)

Page 25: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Oth

er fo

reca

st fa

ctor

sO

ther

fore

cast

fact

ors

•Id

eal t

erra

in fo

r win

dsto

rms

are

long

ridg

es w

ith g

entle

win

dwar

d sl

opes

and

st

eep

lee

slop

es (e

ffect

ive

terr

ain

shap

e ca

n be

mod

ified

by

upst

ream

bl

ocki

ng)

•Lo

w h

umid

ity is

bet

ter (

moi

stur

e se

ems

to re

duce

am

plitu

de)

•N

ight

time

or e

arly

mor

ning

mor

e lik

ely

(sta

bilit

y ch

angi

ng d

urin

g th

is ti

me?

)•

Kle

mp

and

Lilly

(197

5) fo

und

that

the

stro

nges

t dow

nslo

pe e

vent

soc

cur i

n B

ould

er w

hen

a on

e-ha

lf w

avel

engt

h ph

ase

shift

was

pre

sent

bet

wee

n gr

ound

and

trop

opau

se (p

artia

l ref

lect

ion

mec

hani

sm o

f lin

ear t

heor

y)•

Dur

ran

(198

6a) r

an s

imul

atio

ns o

f the

11

Janu

ary

1972

eve

nt –

this

co

nditi

on a

ppea

rs n

eces

sary

, but

not

suf

ficie

nt fo

r stro

nges

t win

dsto

rms

•E

leva

ted

inve

rsio

ns m

ight

be

requ

ired

for b

reak

ing

wav

es to

form

•Le

e et

al (

1989

) fou

nd th

at th

e pr

esen

ce o

f col

d po

ols

in th

e le

e of

the

mou

ntai

n co

uld

have

a s

trong

det

erm

inan

t in

whe

ther

dow

nslo

pe w

inds

w

ould

mak

e it

to th

e m

ount

ain

base

–it

also

alte

red

the

over

all s

truct

ure

of

the

mou

ntai

n w

ave

in s

imul

atio

ns (d

iffer

ent l

ower

bou

ndar

y, c

hang

e in

sc

ale?

)•

In s

ome

case

s, p

reci

pita

tion

effe

cts

coul

d pl

ay a

role

? (e

.g. t

he 3

Jul

y 19

93

Fort

Col

lins

win

dsto

rm c

ase)

Page 26: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

25 O

ctob

er 1

997

Blo

wdo

wn

Eve

nt

25 O

ctob

er 1

997

Blo

wdo

wn

Eve

nt

Wes

t of t

he P

ark

Ran

geW

est o

f the

Par

k R

ange

13,0

00 a

cres

of o

ld g

row

th tr

ees

blow

n do

wn

in M

ount

Zirk

elW

ilder

ness

Are

a/R

outt

Nat

iona

l For

est,

trees

sta

cked

30

feet

hig

h, h

unte

rs tr

appe

d fo

r 2 d

ays;

stro

nges

t win

ds

last

ed ~

30 m

inW

ind

gust

s ex

ceed

ed 1

00 m

ph fo

r 7

hrs

at A

rapa

hoe

Bas

in S

ki

Are

a (e

l. 12

,500

ft; p

eak

gust

11

4 m

ph o

ut o

f the

eas

t, w

indc

hill

to -6

0°F)

Fact

ors:

stro

ng s

ynop

tical

ly-d

riven

flo

w fr

om e

ast t

o w

est (

bliz

zard

of

’97)

, an

unus

ually

col

d an

d st

able

laye

r on

the

win

dwar

d si

de o

f the

mou

ntai

ns

Pic

ture

cou

rtesy

U.S

. For

est S

ervi

ce

For m

ore,

see

Mey

ers

et a

l (20

03)

Page 27: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

RA

MS

Mod

el S

imul

atio

nFi

gure

s fro

m F

SL

Foru

m, F

eb. 1

999

(Win

d sp

eed

in k

nots

, hei

ght i

n m

eter

s)

Page 28: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

His

toric

al F

ort C

ollin

s W

inds

torm

sH

isto

rical

For

t Col

lins

Win

dsto

rms

Fort

Col

lins

Win

dsto

rms

note

d in

con

junc

tion

with

Bou

lder

Win

dsto

rms

(as

repo

rted

in th

e B

ould

er D

aily

Cam

era)

•D

ec. 4

-5, 1

880

•M

ar. 1

8, 1

920

•M

ay 2

1, 1

925

also

incl

udin

g E

aton

, Gre

eley

, Win

dsor

, and

Pla

ttevi

lle

•Ja

n. 1

5, 1

943

incl

udin

g Lo

vela

nd, F

t. M

orga

n•

Dec

. 20,

194

8 av

erag

e w

ind

of 4

1 m

ph, g

ust t

o 96

mph

•D

ec. 6

, 196

3

Fort

Col

lins,

Gre

eley

, Ste

rling

•Ja

n 27

-28,

196

5 g

ust t

o 73

mph

•Fe

b. 1

3-14

, 196

7

Dec

. 6, 1

967

gu

st to

66

mph

•D

ec. 2

1-22

, 196

9 L

arim

er C

ount

y •

Nov

30-

Dec

1, 1

970

Mar

31,

197

1

Ft C

ollin

s an

d La

porte

, 40-

50 m

ph, g

usts

to 7

2 m

ph, o

ne fa

talit

y an

d se

vera

l inj

urie

s in

For

t Col

lins

•Ja

n 11

-12,

197

2 F

ort C

ollin

s Lo

vela

nd a

nd ju

st a

bout

eve

ryw

here

•N

ov 2

5-26

, 197

2 F

ort C

ollin

s

Dat

a fro

m W

hite

man

and

Whi

tem

an (1

973)

Page 29: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Fort

Col

lins

Win

dsto

rm C

limat

olog

yFo

rt C

ollin

s W

inds

torm

Clim

atol

ogy

•P

eak

win

dsto

rm s

easo

n is

dur

ing

the

win

ter m

onth

s•

Win

dsto

rms

ofte

n oc

cur i

n ‘s

treak

s’; J

an. 1

977

had

7 se

para

te e

vent

s!•

Sum

mer

eve

nts

are

rare

, but

not

unp

rece

dent

ed (J

une

1973

, Jul

y 19

93)

Dat

a co

urte

sy o

fJo

hn W

eave

r (s

ee L

ee e

t al 1

989;

W

eave

r and

Phi

llips

1990

)

Fort

Col

lins

Win

dsto

rms,

197

7-19

89

02468101214161820 Janu

aryFeb

ruary

March

April

May

June

July

Augus

t Septem

ber

Octobe

r Novembe

r Decembe

r

Mon

th

Number of windstorm events

> 54

kt

> 70

kt

Mos

t or a

ll of

the

data

is fr

om o

ld

Foot

hills

cam

pus

stat

ion

Page 30: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

•Fo

r com

paris

on, t

he

seas

onal

cyc

le o

f B

ould

er w

inds

Sou

rce:

http

://w

ww

.bcn

a.or

g/w

inds

.htm

l

Page 31: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

FC W

inds

torm

Clim

atol

ogy,

con

t’dFC

Win

dsto

rm C

limat

olog

y, c

ont’d

•65

win

dsto

rms

with

max

gus

ts >

54 k

t(~5

per

yea

r)•

12 w

inds

torm

s w

ith m

ax g

usts

>70

kt(

~1 p

er y

ear)

Dat

a co

urte

sy o

fJo

hn W

eave

r (s

ee L

ee e

t al 1

989;

W

eave

r and

Phi

llips

1990

)

Fort

Col

lins

Win

dsto

rms

024681012 1977

/7819

78/79

1979

/8019

80/81

1981

/8219

82/83

1983

/8419

84/85

1985

/8619

86/87

1987

/8819

88/89

Year

Number of windstorm events

> 54

kt

> 70

kt

Page 32: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

5055606570758085

06

1218

24

Max

gus

ts in

kt (

y-ax

is) v

ersu

s tim

e of

day

occ

urs

(x)

5055606570758085

01

23

45

67

89

1011

12

Max

gus

t in

kts

vers

us M

onth

of y

ear

Not

e th

at th

ere

is n

opr

efer

entia

l tim

e of

yea

r fo

r max

imum

gus

ts

Max

gus

ts o

ccur

dur

ing

all p

arts

of t

he d

ay, w

ith

a w

eak

peak

aro

und

mid

day

Ave

rage

win

dsto

rm d

urat

ion

is 8

hrs

(min

of 1

.25

h,

max

of 2

0 h)

Dat

a co

urte

sy o

fJo

hn W

eave

r (s

ee L

ee e

t al 1

989;

W

eave

r and

Phi

llips

1990

)

Page 33: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Win

d tra

ce o

f win

dsto

rm a

t For

t Col

lins

Not

e th

at w

inds

are

muc

h st

eadi

er th

an B

ould

er s

torm

s

Trac

e co

urte

sy o

f Ric

hard

Joh

nson

Page 34: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Not

able

For

t Col

lins

Win

dsto

rms

Not

able

For

t Col

lins

Win

dsto

rms

823

Jul 1

993

7722

Dec

198

8

7918

Sep

198

8

732

Dec

198

7

7328

/29

Jan

1987

784/

5 M

ay 1

986

7315

Feb

198

6

7230

Mar

198

3

782

Apr

198

2

7429

/30

Mar

198

2

8324

Jan

198

2

743

Jan

1982

7126

Nov

197

7

7917

/18

Jun

1973

Stre

ngth

of m

ax g

ust

(kt)

Dat

eM

ost o

r all

of th

e da

ta is

from

the

old

Foot

hills

ca

mpu

s st

atio

n,

data

afte

r 198

8 is

fro

m C

hris

tman

Fi

eld

stat

ion

Dat

a co

urte

sy o

fJo

hn W

eave

r (s

ee L

ee e

t al 1

989;

W

eave

r and

Phi

llips

1990

)

Page 35: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Rot

ors

Rot

ors

Rot

or: a

regi

on o

f rev

erse

d flo

w

Figu

res

from

Doy

le a

nd D

urra

n (2

004)

Page 36: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

A U

niqu

e O

bser

vatio

nA

Uni

que

Obs

erva

tion

“On

anot

her o

ccas

ion

(25

Apr

il 19

55)

a un

ique

obs

erva

tion

of th

e ro

tor

circ

ulat

ion

was

mad

e w

hen

the

Sie

rra

Wav

e P

roje

ct s

ailp

lane

bro

ke a

part

inse

vere

turb

ulen

ce n

ear t

he u

pwin

d ed

geof

the

roll

clou

d an

d th

e pi

lot,

Mr.

Larr

yE

dgar

, des

cend

ed th

roug

h th

is re

gion

by p

arac

hute

. Afte

r bei

ng c

arrie

d ra

pidl

ydo

wn

the

dire

ctio

n of

the

mai

n st

ream

east

war

d ac

ross

the

Val

ley

belo

w th

e ro

ll cl

oud,

he

enco

unte

red

a la

yer o

f cal

mai

r at a

bout

2,5

00 m

(1,3

00 m

abo

ve th

egr

ound

) bel

ow w

hich

he

drift

ed w

estw

ard

in a

win

d es

timat

ed a

t 25

knot

s. H

e fin

ally

land

ed o

n th

e w

ests

ide

of th

eO

wen

s V

alle

y be

low

the

lead

ing

edge

of

the

roll

clou

d.”

--Q

uote

from

Sco

rer a

nd K

liefo

rth (1

958)

Figu

re fr

om G

rubi

ši a

nd L

ewis

(200

4)

Page 37: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Rot

or o

bser

vatio

ns fr

om S

ierr

a R

otor

obs

erva

tions

from

Sie

rra

Wav

e P

roje

ctW

ave

Pro

ject

Figu

re fr

om G

rubi

ši a

nd L

ewis

(200

4)

Page 38: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Figu

re fr

om G

rubi

ši a

nd L

ewis

(200

4)

Page 39: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Figu

re fr

om

Gru

biši

and

Lew

is (2

004)

Page 40: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Rot

or F

orm

atio

nR

otor

For

mat

ion

•Q

uene

y (1

955)

pr

opos

ed a

sim

ple

“cat

’s e

ye”

form

atio

n m

echa

nism

for

roto

rs–

Tran

sfor

mat

ion

of a

st

atio

nary

wav

e m

otio

n in

to a

sy

stem

of v

ortic

es

in th

e vi

cini

ty o

f a

leve

l whe

re th

e ba

sic

win

d ve

loci

ty

is v

anis

hing

Figu

re fr

om Q

uene

y (1

955)

Page 41: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Rot

or fo

rmat

ion,

con

t’dR

otor

form

atio

n, c

ont’d

•D

oyle

and

Dur

ran

(200

2) h

ave

a re

cent

pap

er o

n ro

tor d

ynam

ics:

–K

inem

atic

con

side

ratio

ns s

ugge

st th

at b

ound

ary

laye

r sep

arat

ion

is a

pr

ereq

uisi

te fo

r rot

or fo

rmat

ion.

–N

umer

ical

sim

ulat

ions

sug

gest

that

bou

ndar

y la

yer s

epar

atio

n is

gre

atly

fa

cilit

ated

by

the

adve

rse

pres

sure

gra

dien

ts a

ssoc

iate

d w

ith tr

appe

d m

ount

ain

lee

wav

es a

nd th

at b

ound

ary

laye

r pro

cess

es a

nd le

e-w

ave

indu

ced

pres

sure

gra

dien

ts in

tera

ct s

yner

gist

ical

ly to

pro

duce

low

leve

l ro

tors

.–

Mec

hani

cal s

hear

in th

e pl

anet

ary

boun

dary

laye

r is

the

prim

ary

sour

ce

of a

she

et o

f hor

izon

tal v

ortic

ity th

at is

lifte

d ve

rtica

lly in

to th

e le

e w

ave

at th

e se

para

tion

poin

t, an

d pa

rtly

carr

ied

into

the

roto

r.–

Rea

listic

roto

rs a

ppea

r to

only

dev

elop

in th

e pr

esen

ce o

f sur

face

fri

ctio

n.–

Sur

face

hea

t flu

x ab

ove

the

lee

slop

e in

crea

ses

the

verti

cal e

xten

t of t

he

roto

r circ

ulat

ion

and

the

stre

ngth

of t

he tu

rbul

ence

but

dec

reas

es th

e m

agni

tude

of t

he re

vers

ed ro

tor f

low

.

Page 42: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Figu

re fr

om D

oyle

and

Dur

ran

(200

4)

Page 43: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

Figu

re fr

om D

oyle

and

Dur

ran

(200

4)

Page 44: Downslope Windstorms and Rotors - RAL...Downslope Windstorms and Rotors. Jonathan Vigh. AT707. 21,23,25 February 2005. ... Historical Fort Collins Windstorms. Fort Collins Windstorms

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