Download Webinar Slides - SiliconExpert
120
Supply Chain Planning in the Global Electronics Industry Supply Chain Webinar
Transcript of Download Webinar Slides - SiliconExpert
Supply Chain Planning in the Global Electronics Industry
Supply Chain Webinar
Asking Questions
• Ask questions during the webinar by using the Questions window
• Questions will be addressed at the end of the webinar
• Any question we do not get to will be answered individually by email
• The presentation will be sent to you after the webinar
• Please respond to the survey questions at the end of the webinar
Agenda
Agenda
• SiliconExpert Introduction 5 minutes
• Walt Custer -Custer Consulting 40 minutes
• Tierney Powers- SiliconExpert 10 minutes
• Questions & Answers 5 minutes
Tierney Powers
Sales Associate
(415) 990-7256
SiliconExpert Panelist
• Serving Electronic OEMs, Distributors,
Manufacturers & Contract Manufacturers
• Our Electronic Component Database of
over 250 million components powers our:
o Comprehensive software tools
o Integrated solutions
o Professional services
About Us
Reactive vs. Proactive Approaches to Obsolescence Management
250 Million+ Orderable Part Numbers
Up to 42 Parametric values/product line
Risk Analysis & Obsolescence
Forecasting Algorithms developed
with CALCE
Environmental Data tracked: EU &
China RoHS, REACH, WEEE
compliance & Material Declarations
Parametrically-derived cross-references
for millions of parts
Our Database
Walt Custer President at Custer Consulting Group
707 785-1777
www.custerconsulting.com
Today’s Expert Panelist
Business Outlook
Global Electronics
Industry
Custer Consulting Group
www.custerconsulting.com
September 2013
20130919
Topics of this Presentation
• Business Cycles & Global Economy
• World & Regional Electronic Supply Chain Growth
- Electronic Equipment
- Active & Passive Components
- EMS/ODM Companies
- Materials and Process Equipment
• Summary & Forecasts
• Forecasting tools and how to use this information
to predict your companies sales
BUSINESS CYCLE
Electronic Equipment, EMS/ODM Companies,
Components, Materials & Capital Equipment
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
Electronic Equipment
EMS/ODM
Components
Raw Materials
Capital Equip
Expansion ContractionTime ->
20130915
% Growth
+
-
0
Global Economy
Industrial Production – World% Change vs. One Year Earlier
Britain - 1.5 Jul
Czech Republic +2.0 Jul
France - 1.8 Jul
Germany - 2.3 Jul
Italy - 4.4 Jul
Netherlands - 0.4 Jul
Russia - 0.8 Jul
Spain +0.4 Jul
Euro Area - 2.2 Jul
Canada - 0.6 Jun
USA + 1.4 Jul
China +10.4 Aug
India - 2.2 Jun
Malaysia + 7.6 Jul
Singapore + 2.7 Jul
S Korea + 0.9 Jul
Taiwan + 2.1 Jul
Thailand - 4.5 Jul
Japan + 1.6 Jul
www.economist.com + Eurostat
20130913
52.2
50
47.5
50.1
51.4
55.7
51.7
50.7
48.6
47.2
47.7
50.3
55.4
50.8
45.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 57.0
Japan
Taiwan
S Korea
China
Europe
USA
World
PMI
July August
Purchasing Managers' Indices
July vs. August 2013
Markit Economics, JPMorgan and ISM
Above 50 = Growth
Below 50 = Contraction
20130905
Global "Purchasing Managers" IndexDiffusion Index, >50 = Growth
Markit Economics
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Ja
nA
pr
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
nA
pr
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
nA
pr
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
nA
pr
Ju
l
Oc
tJ
an
Ap
rJ
ul
Oc
tJ
an
Ap
r
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
nA
pr
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
nA
pr
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
nA
pr
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
n
Ap
rJ
ul
Oc
tJ
an
Ap
rJ
ul
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PM
I20130905
World Purchasing Managers Index3/12 Rate of Change
ISM, JPMorgan, Markit Economics
20130905
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Ja
n
May
Se
p
Ja
n
May
Se
p
Ja
n
May
Se
p
Ja
n
May
Se
p
Ja
n
May
Se
p
Ja
n
May
Se
p
Ja
n
May
Se
p
Ja
n
May
Se
p
Ja
n
May
Se
p
Ja
n
May
Se
p
Ja
n
May
Se
p
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
3/1
2 R
ate
of
Ch
an
ge
China
USA
Europe
World
0 Growth
Electronic
Equipment
World Electronic Equipment Production
by Type
Electronic Outlook 11/2012
2012 TOTAL: $2.15 Trillion
1.6%
27.7%
13.1%
6.9%
25.2%
8.7%
8.6%
8.2%
Business
Communication
Consumer
Auto
Computer
Gov/Military
Industrial
Instrument
Methods to Measure Growth
Sector composites based upon financial reports of similar
companies
- Typically quarterly, semiannually or monthly
Government and trade organization statistics
- Typically monthly
- TIMELY DATA REPORTED ON A CONSISTENT BASIS IS
KEY
Sector Analyses based
on Company Financial
Reports
Electronic Equipment Suppliers
Composite of 115 Public CompaniesRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
Computer 13, Internet 9, Storage 10, Communication 20, SEMI 20, Medical 23, Instruments 11,
Military 6, Business & Office 3
20130824
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Mil
lio
ns
Revenue
Income
Inventory
+0.3%
Electronic Equipment Suppliers
Composite of 115 Public Companies
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Computer 13, Internet 9, Storage 10, Communication 20, SEMI 20, Medical 23, Instruments 11, Military 6, Business & Office 3
+ Media tablets from all vendors
20130824
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% G
row
th
Media
tablets
included
Inventory/Sales Ratios Large Component Distributors, Semiconductor, EMS & OEM Companies
Custer Consulting Group based upon company financials
20130810
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Semiconductor
EMS
OEM
Component Distrib
Ratio: Inventories/Sales
Global Electronic Supply Chain Growth
2Q'13 vs. 2Q'12
0-5
-30
-14
6-1
-78
21
-84
-2-2
7-1
-4
-10 -5 0 5 10
Electronic Equipment
Military
Business & Office
Instruments & Controls
Medical
Communication
Internet
Computer
Data Storage
SEMI Equip
Semiconductors (SIA)
Passive components
PCBs
Component Distrib
EMS (excl Foxconn)
ODM
PCB Process Equipment
PCB Laminate
Materials
% Change
20130824
US$ equivalent at fluctuating exchange; based upon industry composites including acquisitions
Regional Data from Government,
Industry & Trade Organization
Statistics
Europe
Japan
Taiwan/China
USA
Eurostat Data (NACE Rev 2)
Electronic Equipment Production by Country
•C26 computer, electronic & optical products
•C261 electronic components & boards
•C2611 electronic components
•C2612 loaded electronic boards
•C264 consumer electronics
•C2651 instruments & appliances for measuring, testing and navigation
•C266 irradiation, electromedical & electrotherapeutic equipment
•C2733 wiring devices
•C2751 electric domestic appliances
•C2823 office machinery & equipment (except computers & peripherals)
•C291 motor vehicles
•C303 air & spacecraft and related machinery
Monthly indices where average month in CY2005=100
European Computer, Electronic & Optical Products
Production
Eurostat, C26 category, EU 27 countries
20130913
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Index (2010=100), Seasonally Adjusted
Japan Electronic Equipment Production
by Month 2000 to Present
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Elec Application Equip
Electronic Measuring Instrumentation
Communications Equipment
Computers & Related Equipment
Electronic Business Machines
Consumer Electronic Equipment
JEITA www.jeita.or.jp/
20130823
Yen Billion
Taiwan/China Electronic Equipment Producers
Composite of 101 Manufacturers
Consolidated Revenue
Taiwan listed companies, often with significant manufacturing in China
20130911
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Aug 2013 down 2.1% compared to
Aug 2012
NT$ Billions
U.S. Electronic Equipment Orders & ShipmentsComputer, Communications, Measurement & Control and Military
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20130905
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Ja
n
Ju
n
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Orders
Shipments
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)
U.S. Electronic Equipment OrdersMonthly Data
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20130905
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Th
ou
sa
nd
s Search & Navigation
Electromedical, Instr & Control
Communication
Computer
Defense
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)
U.S. Electronic Equipment OrdersMonthly Data
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20130905
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ja
nM
ay
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
Se
pJ
an
May
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Medical, Measuring & Control
Search & Navigation - non Military
Communication- non Military
Computer & Related
Military-Search & Navigation
Military-Communications
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)
Global Electronic Equipment
Europe
Japan
Taiwan/China
USA
World Electronic Equipment Production
by Region (Final Assembly)
Electronic Outlook 11/2012
2012 TOTAL: $2.15 Trillion
19.0%
15.0%
6.0%
52.0%
8.0%
N America
W Europe
Japan
Rest of Asia
Rest of World
Global Electronic Equipment Shipment
Growth3/12 Rate of Change
IU.S. Dept of Commerce, Eurostat, JEITA, Taiwan/China Composite
20130913
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
3/1
2 R
ate
of
Ch
an
ge
Taiwan/China
Europe
Japan
USA
0 Growth
World Electronic Equipment Monthly
ShipmentsConverted @ Constant 2010 Exchange Rates
Source: Custer Consulting Group
2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
N America
W Europe
Japan
SE Asia
ROW
US$ B
World Electronic Equipment Monthly
ShipmentsConverted @ Constant 2010 Exchange Rates
Source: Custer Consulting Group
20130913
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Ja
n
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Se
p
Feb
Ju
l
De
c
May
Oc
t
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Aug 2013
3.6% below
Aug 2012
US$ B
Market Segments
Volume (Shifted to Low Cost Areas)
Computers & Mobile Communication Devices
Other Consumer Electronics
Datacom/Telecom
Automotive
"Protected"
Military
Medical
Instruments & Controls
High IP Content
Prototype, Quick Response, Short Run, Need for Local Support
Military Equipment
Composite of 6 Public CompaniesRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
General Dynamics, Harris, Lockheed, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Rockwell Collins
20130824
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
- 5.3%
U.S. Military Electronics Orders & ShipmentsDefense Communication & Search & Navigation Equipment
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20130906
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Orders
Shipments
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)
U.S. Aircraft & Parts Shipments
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Defense Non-Defense
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3
US$ Billion
20130906
Instruments & Control Equipment
Composite of 12 Public CompaniesRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
Agilent, Ametek, Emerson, Itron, Keithly, LeCroy, PerkinElmer, Rockwell Automation, Teledyne,
ThermoFisher, Varian, Woodward Govenor
20130824
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
+0.2%
U.S. Electromedical, Measurement & Control Equipment
Orders & Shipments
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20130906
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Orders
Shipments
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)
Medical Equipment
Composite of 23 Public CompaniesRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
Analogic, Bio-Rad Laboratories, Boston Scientific, Bruker, CareFusion, Covidien, Draeger, Guidant,
Hill-Rom, Intuitive Surgical, Invacare, Kinetic Concepts, Medtronic, ResMed, St Jude Medical, Smith &
Nephew, STERIS, Stryker, Varian Medical, Waters, Zimmer, Zoll
20110824
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Mil
lio
ns
Revenue
Income
Inventory
-0.5%
Mobile Phone Unit ShipmentsWorld
Gartner Dataquest 8/13 & prior reports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
UnitsUnits (Millions)
20130818
World Mobile Phone Sales to End Users
2Q’13
Gartner 8/13TOTAL: 435.2 Million Units
24.7%
14.0%
7.3%
3.9%3.5%2.6%
2.5%2.3%
2.2%
1.8%
35.1%
Units
Samsung
Nokia
Apple
LG
ZTE
Huawei
Lenovo
TCL
Sony
Yulong
Others
Smartphone Unit Shipments to
EndusersWorld
Gartner Dataquest 8/13 & prior reports,
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Units (Millions)
20130814
"Internet" Equipment Suppliers
Composite of 9 Public CompaniesRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
ADTRAN, Cisco Systems, Extreme Networks, Juniper Networks, Mattson Technology, Netgear,
Sierra Wireless, Sonus Networks, Sycamore
20130824
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
+5.5%
Cisco SystemsRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
CY
20130819
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
CSCO
+ 6%
$639 M due to Scientific
Atlanta acquisition
Juniper NetworksRevenue & Net Income
CY
20130726
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Millions
Revenue
Income
+ 7%
1140-1180
7/23/13
JNPR"Inventory" not listed on Balance Sheet
2Q/06 Net Loss: $1.2 Billion
+4%
Smart Connected Device Market by Type
IDC 9/13
20130914
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Smartphone 53.2 59.5 65.2 68.0 69.0 69.8 70.5
Tablet 7.7 11.8 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.3 16.5
Portable PC 22.4 16.5 11.6 9.7 8.9 8.4 8.0
Desktop 16.6 12.2 8.6 7.0 6.2 5.5 5.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Unit % of Total
Personal Computer Unit ShipmentsWorld
Gartner Dataquest 7/13 & prior reports
Server & Media Tablets not included
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
UnitsUnits (Millions)
World Personal Computer Market
2Q’13
Gartner 7/2013
TOTAL: 76.0 Million Units
16.7%
16.3%
11.8%
8.3%6.0%
40.8%
Lenovo
HP
Dell
Acer Group
Asus
Other
Includes desk-based PCs, mobile PCs, mini-notebooks but not Media Tablets
20130713
Taiwan/China Motherboard Vendor Sales
Composite of 22 Manufacturers
Taiwan listed companies, often with significant manufacturing in China
20130911
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NT$ Billions
Data Storage Equipment Suppliers
Composite of 10 Public CompaniesRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
Brocade, EMC, Iomega, Maxtor, Network Appliance, Qlogic, Quantum, Seagate, Western Digital, SanDisk
(Iomega & Maxtor historical data retained as both were purchased by other members of this group)
20130824
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
-7.3%
SanDiskRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
CY
20130722
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Millions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
+ 43%
SNDK
4Q08 net loss: -$1.76 billion
“We are excited about our pending acquisition of SMART Storage Systems, as
it accelerates our growth in enterprise storage. The growth drivers of our
business are vibrant and SanDisk is poised for further gains.” 7/17/13
Components
- Semiconductors
- Passive Components
- Solar/Photovoltaic Industry
- Component Distributors
7/12 7/13 % CH
Americas 4.13 5.02 +21.5%
Europe 2.82 2.85 +1.1%
Japan 3.61 2.93 -18.6%
Asia Pacific 13.74 14.73 +7.2%
Total 24.29 25.53 +5.1%
Monthly Semiconductor Shipments
$ Billions (3-month average)
SIA www.sia-online.org/
20130902
Global Semiconductor ShipmentsMonthly US$
SIA
20130902
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan
Au
gM
ar
Oc
tM
ay
Dec
Ju
lF
eb
Sep
Ap
rN
ov
Ju
nJan
Au
gM
ar
Oc
tM
ay
Dec
Ju
lF
eb
Sep
Ap
rN
ov
Ju
nJan
Au
gM
ar
Oc
tM
ay
Dec
Ju
lF
eb
Sep
Ap
rN
ov
Ju
nJan
Au
gM
ar
Oc
tM
ay
Dec
Ju
lF
eb
Sep
Ap
rN
ov
Ju
nJan
Au
gM
ar
Oc
tM
ay
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
3-Month AvgUS$ Billions (3-month average)
2009 recession
much sharper
but shorter
than 2001
Record high
Global Semiconductor Shipments3-Month Growth Rates on $ Basis
Total $ Shipments from All Countries to an Area
SIA website: www.sia-online.org/
20130902
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
Jan
Sep
May
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
3/12 rate of change
2
1
4
3 6
5
8
7
10
911
13
12
Total Semiconductor Shipments to an Area
Monthly Shipments - Reporting Firms
SIA website: www.sia-online.org/
20130902
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Jan
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Sep
Fe
b
Ju
l
Dec
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Jan
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Sep
Fe
b
Ju
l
Dec
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Jan
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Sep
Fe
b
Ju
l
Dec
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Jan
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Sep
Fe
b
Ju
l
Dec
May
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Japan
N America
Europe
Asia-Pac
$ Billions SE Asia
Total Semiconductor Shipments to an AreaMonthly Shipments - Reporting Firms
SIA website: www.sia-online.org/
20130902
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
Jan
Ju
l
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Japan
Europe
NAmericaAsia
Asia grows from 20%
to 56.1% market share
7/13
11.1%
12.1%
20.7%
56.1%
N American Semiconductor ShipmentsMonthly & 3-Month Average Shipments
SIA website: www.sia-online.org/
20130902
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Jan
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Sep
Fe
b
Ju
l
Dec
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Jan
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Sep
Fe
b
Ju
l
Dec
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Jan
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Sep
Fe
b
Ju
l
Dec
May
Oc
t
Mar
Au
g
Jan
Ju
n
No
v
Ap
r
Sep
Fe
b
Ju
l
Dec
May
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Month
3-Month Avg
$ Billions
Semiconductor Shipments to N. America
vs. U.S Electronic Equipment Production
Total $ Semiconductor Shipments from All Countries to N. America www.sia-online.org/
U.S. Electronic Equipment Shipments www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20130905
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Semiconductors
El Equip
3/12 Rate of Change(US$)
Semiconductor Fab, Assembly,
Packaging,Test & Measurement
Equipment
Semiconductor Fab, Test & Measurement
Composite of 20 Public CompaniesRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
Applied Materials, ASM Intl, ASML, Advantest, KLA Tencor, Novellus, Hitachi Hi Tech, Lam Research, BTU,
LTX-Credence, FEI, FSI, Intervac, Kulicke & Soffa, MKS Instruments, Rudolph, Teradyne, Ultratech Stepper,
Varian semiconductor, Veeco
20130824
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US$ Billions @ fluctuating exchange
Chart TitleRevenue
Income
Inventory
+8.4%
Applied MaterialsRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
CY
20130819
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Mil
lio
ns
Revenue
Income
Inventory
AMAT
- 16%
+20%%
Semiconductor Capital Equipment Shipments
by Area
www.semi.org, www.seaj.or.jp/ 9/13
20130914
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ROW
China
Taiwan
S Korea
N America
Japan
Europe
$ Billions
Global Semiconductor & Semiconductor Capital Equipment
3-Month Shipment Growth Rates on $ Basis
Sources: SIA; Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan, www.semi.org, Custer
Consulting Group SEMI equipment sector composite 2012 growth
20130914
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan
Au
g
Mar
Oc
t
May
Dec
Ju
l
Fe
b
Sep
Ap
r
No
v
Ju
n
Jan
Au
g
Mar
Oc
t
May
Dec
Ju
l
Fe
b
Sep
Ap
r
No
v
Ju
n
Jan
Au
g
Mar
Oc
t
May
Dec
Ju
l
Fe
b
Sep
Ap
r
No
v
Ju
n
Jan
Au
g
Mar
Oc
t
May
Dec
Ju
l
Fe
b
Sep
Ap
r
No
v
Ju
n
Jan
Au
g
Mar
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Semiconductors
SEMI Capital Equip
Zero Growth
3/12 Rate of Change
Passive Components
Passive Components
Composite of 10 CompaniesRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
AVX, Bel Fuse, Diodes, Littlefuse, Murata, RF Micro, Rohm, Vishay, TDK, Yageo;
Euros, Yen & NT$ converted to US$ at fluctuating exchange rates
20130807
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
0%
U.S. Passive Components Shipments
vs. Semiconductor Shipments to N America
U.S. Dept of Commerce
SIA
20130906
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Passive
Semiconductor
Zero Growth
3/12 Rate of Change
Semiconductors lead passive components
by 1-3 months and are more volatile
Taiwan Solar/Photovoltaic Panel Companies
Composite of 17 Manufacturers
20130912
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
NT$ (Billions)
Big Sun Energy Technology, Daxon, DelSolar, e_TON Solar Tec, Eversol, Gintech, Green Energy Technology (GET),
Ligitek, Motech, Neo Solar Power, Phoenixtec Power Co (PPC), Precision Silicon, Sino-American Silicon Products,
Sonartech, Sysgration, Tyntek, Wafer Works
Calendar Year
Global "Purchasing Managers" Index vs.
Global Passive Component & Semiconductor Shipments
20130902
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
l
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Global PMI 3/12
Global Passives
Global Semiconductors
Zero Growth
Global PMI=JPMorgan
Global Passive Components = Custer Consulting Group Industry Composite
Global semiconductors = SIA
Component
Distributors
Electronic Component Distributors
Composite of 4 US Public CompaniesRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
Arrow, Avnet, Nu Horizons, Richardson
20130807
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
+4%
Q3'13/Q3'12
Guidance
+6%
Arrow ElectronicsRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
CY
20130726
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Mil
lio
ns
Revenue
Income
Inventory
+ 3%
4.9-5.3
7/24/13
ARW
+3%
DMASS - European Semiconductor
Distribution Industry
http://dmass.com/ 8/13
20130814
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Other France UK Italy Germany
$ Millions
DMASSEuropean Semiconductor Distribution Industry
20130814
478 462
139 155123 122108 117
153 154160 167
393
333
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q1'13 Q2'13
Euros (Millions)
Germany
Italy
UK
France
Nordic
E Europe
Other
DMASS 8/2013; http://dmass.com/
Georg Steinberger, chairman of DMASS, commented on the results: “As expected, the
improvement on the booking side since Q4/CY12 materializes now in the form of higher
revenues, so that the market has slightly turned towards a positive trend. However, we
should be careful to over-interpret the market conditions, as bookings are just slightly
higher than billings. With China as one key economy softening, the trend could turn easily.
Nevertheless, I am cautiously optimistic that 2013 will remain positive.“
EMS & ODM
Companies
Large EMS Providers
Composite of 9 Public CompaniesRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
Benchmark+Pemstar, Celestica, Flextronics+Solectron, Foxconn, Jabil, Plexus, Sanmina-SCI,
Sypris, Venture Mfg
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US$ Billions @ fluctuating exchange
Revenue
Income
Inventory
-1%
20130810
-8%
Q3'13/Q3'12
Guidance
Large EMS Providers
Composite of 8 Public CompaniesQuarterly Revenue Growth
Benchmark+Pemstar, Celestica, Flextronics+Solectron, Jabil, Plexus, Sanmina-SCI, Sypris,Venture Mfg
20130810
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Excludes Foxconn
2012/2011
2011 2012 Growth %
Foxconn (Hon Hai) 93,837 108,937 16%
Quanta Computer 35,884 32,659 -9%
Compal Electronics 21,976 20,562 -6%
Wistron 19,827 20,260 2%
Chimei Innolux 16,424 15,955 -3%
Asustek Computer 10,749 12,693 18%
Inventec 11,451 10,843 -5%
Lite On Technology 3,201 2,597 -19%
Mitac International 1,138 962 -15%
Inventec Appliance 837 0 0%
Total 215,324 225,468 +5%
Large Taiwan ODM Providers20130211
Source: Company data, NT$ converted at constant avg 2012 exchange (29.554 NT$ = 1US$)
Unconsolidated company sales (to be updated soon to consolidated sales)
2012 vs. 2011 Sales ($M)
Taiwan ODM Companies
Composite Sales of 10 Large Manufacturers
20130912
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Aug 2013 was 1.5% below
Aug 2012 and 1%
sequentially below July 2013
NT$ (Billions)
Asustek Computer, Chei Mei, Compal Electronics, Foxconn, Chimei Innolux , Inventec, Inventec Appliance, Lite On
Technology, Mitac International, Quanta Computer, Wistron, Chei Mei Display replacing Chei Mei & Innolux Display
3/10 & later
Calendar YearCompany Financial Releases
Apple Inc.Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
CY
20130726
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Billions
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Revenue
Income
Inventory
+ 1%
34-37
7/23/13
AAPLFY ends September
Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai), TaiwanRevenue, Net Income & Inventory
CY
20130808
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NT$ (Billions)
Revenue
Income
Inventory
2317
+ 1%
Large ODM Companies
Composite of 10 Public ManufacturersQuarterly Revenue Growth
Asustek Computer, Compal Electronics, Foxconn, Chimei Innolux, Inventec, Inventec Appliance, Lite
On Technology, Mitac International, Quanta Computer, Wistron
20130713
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PCB
Fabrication
2012 World PCB Production by Region
IPC 8/13
5.0%
4.5%
14.7%
42.8%
12.6%
13.4%6.6%
0.4%
N America
Europe
Japan
China/HK
Taiwan
S Korea
Rest of Asia
ROW
20130831
Total: $60.0 Billion
(US$ M @ Average 2012 Exchange)
Japan PCB Shipments20130825
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan
Au
gM
ar
Oc
tM
ay
Dec
Ju
lF
eb
Sep
Ap
rN
ov
Ju
nJan
Au
gM
ar
Oc
tM
ay
Dec
Ju
lF
eb
Sep
Ap
rN
ov
Ju
nJan
Au
gM
ar
Oc
tM
ay
Dec
Ju
lF
eb
Sep
Ap
rN
ov
Ju
nJan
Au
gM
ar
Oc
tM
ay
Dec
Ju
lF
eb
Sep
Ap
rN
ov
Ju
nJan
Au
gM
ar
Oc
tM
ay
Dec
Ju
l
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Yen (Billions)
Calendar Year
www.jpca.org/kikaitoukei/kikai2012.xls
2012/2011
-6%
Taiwan Rigid & Flex PCB ShipmentsBroad Composite of 46 Taiwan-listed Manufacturers
20130912
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
Jan
Ap
r
Ju
l
Oc
t
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Consoldated
sales of
TSE-listed
companies
NT$ (Billions)
Calendar YearCompany Financial Releases
Includes significant
production by
Taiwan-owned
Companies
In China
European PCB Production
M Gasch 8/13
20130831
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Other 840.9 825.7 581.1 569.2 569 513.2 483.3 436 390 292.6 348.9 327.2 295 328.2
UK 641.1 478 367.5 339.6 330 278 252 197 176.6 137.4 148.5 144.7 135 105
Scandanavia 350.5 308.6 260 201.3 199.9 197.7 169 136.9 103.3 59.5 63.9 64.3 50.3 45
Austria 321.4 325.8 304 286.1 268 260.2 272.3 255.2 208.7 128.5 162.3 170.9 167 174.6
Italy 619.4 530 444 338 323.5 281 284 248 212.2 155.6 180.5 185.7 173.6 165
France 541.2 464.6 287 243.6 266 239.7 233.9 231.3 206.3 165 170 165.9 147.2 135
Germany 1460.7 1299.9 1006 1026.5 1044.4 980.6 1053.9 1039 969.5 676 882.7 902.1 834.8 888
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Euros (Billions)
Russia & FSR not included
+1%
N American Rigid & Flexible PCB
Shipments & Orders
20130904
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Shipments
Orders
2012/2011 Rigid & Flex
PCB Shipment Growth:
-3.2%
Note: IPC survey captures "market" not domestic production. About 15% of the above
represents imported boards resold by N American PCB producers in survey.
$M (statistical sample of about 50% of producers)
IPC
Process Equipment Related Suppliers
Composite of 9 CompaniesRevenue
C-Sun,Tailing Technology, Camtek, ESI, GSI Group, Orbotech, Mentor Graphics, Nordson,
Coherent
20130910
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Millions
+6%PCB
Flat Panel
Displays
Touch Screens
Photovoltaic
World PCB Model
Regional PCB Shipment Growth20130913
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
lO
ct
Jan
Ap
rJu
l
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Taiwan/China
Japan
N America
Europe
Zero Growth
3/12 Rate of Growth (in local currency)
Sources: IPC, JPCA, Taiwan/China composite; Eurostat "wiring devices" for Europe
Calendar Year
World PCB Monthly ShipmentsConverted @ Constant 2011 Exchange Rates
20130913
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
N America
Europe
Japan
ROA
$ Billions
Source: Custer Consulting Group
Calendar Year
World PCB Monthly ShipmentsConverted @ Constant 2011 Exchange Rates
Source: Custer Consulting Group
20130823
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
Sep
Jan
Ma
y
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
ROW
ROA
Japan
Europe
N America
Calendar Year
World PCB Shipments (with forecast)
Converted @ Constant 2011 Exchange Rates
20130913
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Actual
Forecast
+0.9%
-4.2%
Aug 2013
1.6% below
Aug 2012
$ Billions
Source: Custer Consulting Group - 2010 base year expanded by monthly growth of
N. American, European, Japanese & Taiwan/China monthly PCB shipments
Calendar Year
Growth calculations:
Europe = composite European SIA & local
PCB assoc data
Japan & N. America from JPCA & IPC data
Taiwan/China:46 rigid & flex company
composite
Rest of Asia growth = Taiwan/China 44
company composite
Forecasts
World 4.2 0.1 1.9 5.5 6.4
USA 1.5 -0.8 -3.0 3.1 5.4
EU 1.8 -2.7 -2.3 2.0 2.7
Japan -13.5 -8.8 -12.3 3.6 4.4
Four Tigers 5.9 0.8 3.6 5.4 6.2
China 10.8 1.7 4.3 6.9 7.5
Henderson Ventures 9/2013
www.hendersonventures.com
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Electronic Equipment Production Growth
Constant $ Growth Rates Converted @ Constant Exchange Rates
20130912
Global PMI, Electronic Equipment, PCB &
Semiconductor Shipments
20130913
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
Dec
Mar
Ju
nS
ep
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
PCB
SIA
El Equip
Global PMI
Zero Growth
3/12 Rate of Change
Source: Custer Consulting Group
Calendar Year
Worldwide Semiconductor Market by Geography
WSTS Forecast
WSTS 6/13
20130604
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Asia Pacific 37.2 51.3 39.8 51.2 62.8 88.8 103.5 116.5 123.5 124.0 119.6 160.0 164.0 163.0 172.2 182.7 191.4
Japan 32.8 46.7 33.1 30.5 38.9 45.8 44.1 46.4 48.8 48.5 38.3 46.6 42.9 41.1 35.4 36.8 37.6
Europe 31.9 42.3 30.2 27.8 32.3 39.4 39.1 39.9 41.0 38.2 29.9 38.1 37.4 33.2 34.9 36.3 37.4
Americas 47.5 64.1 35.8 31.3 32.3 39.1 40.7 44.9 42.3 37.9 38.5 53.7 55.2 54.4 55.2 57.1 58.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Equipment Market by
Geography (with forecast)
SEMI 7/13 (and prior reports)
20121208
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ROW 2.69 2.1 4.49 2.86 3.71 3.05 2.61 1.44 3.84 3.41 2.1 2.17 1.94
China 1.15 2.73 1.33 2.31 2.92 1.89 0.94 3.68 3.65 2.5 2.81 5.11
S Korea 1.66 3.18 4.61 5.83 7.01 7.35 4.89 2.6 8.63 8.66 8.67 6.69 8.74
Europe 2.11 2.56 3.44 3.26 3.59 2.94 2.45 0.97 2.33 4.22 2.55 2.35 4.21
Taiwan 3.49 2.92 7.76 5.72 7.31 10.65 5.01 4.35 11.25 8.52 9.53 10.43 10.62
Japan 3.89 5.55 8.27 8.18 9.21 9.31 7.04 2.23 4.44 5.81 3.42 3.8 4.61
N America 5.91 4.73 5.81 5.7 7.32 6.55 5.63 3.39 5.75 9.26 8.15 8.04 8.75
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50$ Billions
Global Electronic Supply Chain Forecast
2013 vs. 2012
-4 -2 0 2 4 6
SEMI Equipment
Semiconductors
PCBs
Electronic Equipment
Combined GDP
SEMI
Custer Consulting Group
Henderson Ventures
Henderson Ventures
HV
% Change
20130912
Global Electronic Supply Chain Forecast
2014 vs. 2013
0 5 10 15 20 25
SEMI Equipment
Semiconductors
PCBs
ElectronicEquipment
Combined GDP
SEMI
Custer Consulting Group
Henderson Ventures
HV
Henderson Ventures
% Change
20130808
ConclusionsWeak global business conditions in 1H’13; signs of
improvement in 2H’13
SE Asia dominates world electronics production.
Some increased talk of “re-shoring” due to rising costs in
China
Company financial “guidance” is a helpful forecasting tool
August PMI leading indicator data says global manufacturing
growth has resumed .
Leading indicators are useful for tracking the recovery
regionally and can be applied to products throughout
electronic supply chain.
20130814
Using This
Information to
Forecast Your
Company’s Sales
Data Sources
• Trade Organizations
• SIA, SEMI, JEITA, IPC, JPCA, DMASS, ZVEI
• Government Statistics
• US DOC, Eurostat
• Published Market Research Studies
• Company Financial Reports & Consolidated Sector Data
• Leading Indicators
• Purchasing Managers Indices, Conference Board CLI
• Consumer Confidence, Chip Foundry sales, etc.
• Your Own Company’s Sales
Forecasting Your Company Sales
• Organize monthly or quarterly sales in spreadsheet
• Obtain related industry time series for same time period
• Compare industry data and/or leading indicators to your
sales using 3/12 growth rates
• Determine lead times vs. your data
• Forecast your sales based upon lead times
• Estimate your market share gains/losses by comparing
your company growth to a related industry sector
•Custer Consulting Group can assist by providing:
• Historical industry data
• Help with analysis
Custer Consulting Group Products
Daily News Services (6 days/week)
- Global electronics supply chain
- Solar/Photovoltaic supply chain
Business Outlook
- Market charts & data
Global market
OEMs
Components, EMS, ODM, materials & process equip
Solar/Photovoltaic
- Weekly Market Comments with latest charts
20111007
Much More Information Exists
(both charts and actual chart data)
Due to time constraints only a
Limited Sample was Provided
to receive a much more complete
set of charts
Tierney Powers
Sales Associate
(415) 990-7256
SiliconExpert Panelist
Supply Chain Risk ?
Supply Chain Risk
• Inventory & Pricing
• Counterfeit Risk • Lead Time
• Lifecycle- obsolescence, Y-to-EOL • Acquisitions
• Natural Disasters
• Environmental & Regulation Compliance
– RoHS, REACH, Conflict Minerals
Current Events- Natural Disasters
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1319418
Sept. 4, 2013 SK Hynix China Computer-Memory Chip Factory Fire
“A fire at a giant Chinese factory making almost one sixth of the world's supply of a key high-tech component shows how vulnerable global manufacturing chains can be to an unexpected event, analysts say.” - Channel News Asia
Counterfeit Trends
10 16 18 30
15 19
247
68
107
22
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013throughJune 1st
Based on GIDEP & SiliconExpert Technologies
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
Product Line Percentage for the Counterfeit Parts
Counterfeit Incidents per Year
Obsolescence
Data Provided by SiliconExpert Technologies
58% of parts were obsoleteted
with PCN’s
42% of parts were obsoleted without PCN’s
Products Obsoleted with PCNs in the past 2 Years
Not all parts are obsoleted with
PCNs !
Parts Search is a powerful search tool with proprietary
search technology that produces the fastest and most
accurate search in the industry.
Extensive Search
Parametrically
Partial part number
Product line
Description
Supplier
Access
Lifecycle, PCNs
Datasheets, Application Notes
RoHS, Environmental data
Inventory
Parametric Data
1. Scrub and Validate
2. Manage Lifecycle
3. Create Custom Reports
4. Set up PCN Alerts
New Module: Supply Chain Live Demo Portion
Q&A
Q&A Session
Contact Information:
If we do not get to your question in this 1 hour allotted time period,
we will respond personally via email following this broadcast
