Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

31
Housing market evidence base report Quarter 1 2010-11 Contents Doncaster Summary Neighbourhoods Summary National Indicators Market Information Neighbourhood Breakdowns

description

Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Transcript of Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Page 1: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Housing market evidence base report

Quarter 1 2010-11

Contents

Doncaster Summary

Neighbourhoods Summary

National Indicators

Market Information

Neighbourhood Breakdowns

Page 2: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Doncaster Summary

• The mean house price for the borough is £132,463 (based on sales and valuations in April 2010), compared to a regional average of £166,014.

• The lower quartile house price in Doncaster is currently £88,400 (based on sales and valuations in April 2010), compared to a regional average of £99,000.

• The average house price to income ratio is currently 4.21:1 (based on data from the latest Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings and sales and valuations over the last 12 months). The regional house price to earnings is 5.1:1

• The mean household income in Doncaster is £31,144 (CACI 2009). The average salary is £22, 776, compared to a regional average of £23,504

• The cost of renting an average 2 bed flat in Doncaster is £121 pw (based on median rents) the cost of buying a 2 bed house is £119 pw (based on the cost of buying with an 85% mortgage over 25 years).

• In 2009, there were 13,487 people on the Housing Register in Doncaster, compared to 10,763 in 2002.

• In 2008-09 the net housing completion in Doncaster was 498. This is 297 lower than 2007-08 and 732 below RSS targets. It did hit the NI 154 target of additional homes as this was lowered from the RSS target of 1230 in light of the credit crunch and the downturn in the housing market.

• In June 2010 there were 4545 amount of empty properties in Doncaster, 2253 have been empty for over 6 months.

• Between 2001 and 2008 the population in Doncaster is estimated to have grown by 4700 which is a 1.6% increase. Over the same period the regions population grew by 5.1%

• 22.3% of the working age population in Doncaster are economically inactive compared to a national average of 21.4%.

• The unemployment rate in Doncaster is 6.1% with 2.6% of the population claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA). This is higher than the national average of 5.4% unemployment and 2.3% claiming JSA

• 63.1% of pupils in Doncaster achieve 5+ A* - C grades at GCSE, this is below the national average of 65.6%, but above the regional average of 62.2%

• Violent crime against a person has fallen 34% between 2007 and 2009 in Doncaster (from 8494 to 5576). Burglaries to dwellings has also fallen 17% between 2007 and 2009.

Page 3: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Neighbourhoods Summary

Ward Name Average

Price

Price Change

2 yrs

Affordability ratio

% of Borough’s

Empty Properties

Turnover (% of total stock)

Adwick 102,319 -1.6 3.83 5.3% 1.18%

Askern Spa 146,263 6.1 4.47 4.9% 1.57%

Bentley 92,896 -5.4 3.44 12.1% 1.32%

Great North Road

127,235 -4.2 4.06 1.0% 2.55%

North

Sprotbrough 207,500 5.5 5.19 1.0% 1.92%

Armthorpe 117,402 -10.4 3.61 2.0% 2.55%

Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby

Dun

138,504 -8.3 3.88 0.2% 1.87%

Hatfield 131,908 8.3 3.86 1.8% 1.64%

Stainforth and

Moorends 124,560 -15.7 4.03 2.5% 0.91%

East

Thorne 129,010 -5.3 4.22 3.1% 2.06%

Bessacarr and Cantley

185,141 1.1 5.11 2.1% 2.11%

Finningley 190,683 -5.7 4.72 0.6% 2.50%

Rossington 114,259 -5.6 3.58 4.9% 2.04%

South

Torne Valley 207,101 -3.6 5.61 0.4% 2.35%

Conisbrough and Denaby

£108,873 -4.5 4.03 2.0% 1.20%

Edlington and

Warmsworth £103,092 -10.8 3.43 6.6% 1.78%

West

Mexborough £91,416 -9.1 3.52 8.2% 1.48%

Balby £119,282 -4 3.56 4.1% 2.40%

Central £85,344 -13.6 3.19 17.6% 1.68%

Town Moor £116,512 -10.9 3.93 4.7% 2.19% Central

Wheatley £101,215 -8.9 3.84 15.0% 1.48%

Page 4: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11
Page 5: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

National Indicators A single set of 198 national indicators was announced as part of the Comprehensive Spending Review 2007. The national indicators are the only measures on which central Government will performance manage outcomes delivered by local government working alone or in partnership. Performance against each of the national indicators will be published annually by the Audit Commission, as part of Comprehensive Area Assessment (CAA).

The table below shows a range on NI and performance information that relate to strategic housing.

Date Range 1

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 PI Code & Short Name

Value Target Status Value Target Status Value Target Status

Performance Data Last Update

Notes & History Latest Note

NI_160 Local authority tenants’ satisfaction with landlord services

74.00%

74.00%

2008/09

This indicator is reported every two years. The next reporting period is 2010/11 (year end). However, a Mini STATUS survey was carried out November 2009 with an outturn of 77.2%.

NI_004 % of people who feel they can influence decisions in their locality

22.1% 26.2%

22.1% 26.2%

26.2% 2009/10

Draft Community Involvement Strategy & Action Plan completed 23rd April 2010. Considered at Doncaster Council CLT on 4th May 2010 and Stronger & Sustainable Exec Board on 10th May 2010.

NI_141 Percentage of vulnerable people achieving independent living

69.17%

68.00%

72.66%

69.00%

71.00%

Q4 2009/10

There are mixed outcomes this quarter. Seven Providers have exceeded their designated target by 10% and more than 50% of all services achieved outcomes greater than their targets which has ensured that the NI as a whole has achieved a highly positive outcome for 09/10. However, care must be taken to acknowledge that although the annual target has been exceeded by more than 5%, Doncaster Supporting People are in the process of putting the majority of existing services out to tender and it should be acknowledged that as the contracts are determined there is the potential for services to transfer to other providers which in turn could have a knock-on effect on

Page 6: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Date Range 1

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 PI Code & Short Name

Value Target Status Value Target Status Value Target Status

Performance Data Last Update

Notes & History Latest Note

performance for the next 2 years, which is why the proposed targets are lower than the level achieved this year.

NI_187(i) Tackling fuel poverty – % of people receiving income based benefits living in homes with a low energy efficiency

rating: (i) Low energy efficiency

12.14%

11.9%

11.53%

11.29%

2008/09

The next survey is expected to be undertaken in June 2010 - this will provide the outturn for 2009/10. 12.14% is the 2007/8 baseline.

NI_142 Percentage of vulnerable people who are supported to maintain independent living

98.40%

98.40%

98.59%

98.50%

98.60%

Q4 2009/10

49 of the 61 services exceeded their target for both for quarter 4 and the cumulative annual target. The majority of those under target missed by a minimal percentage. Work will be ongoing with providers to address all missed targets

NI_154 Net additional homes provided

498 498

200 600 2008/09

It was agreed with Alan Wiltshire at a meeting on the 30th of March 2010 that the 2009/10 figures for NI 154 cannot be inserted until the data is collected and published in June/July.

NI_155 Number of affordable homes delivered (gross)

121 69

48 46

453 2009/10

Properties delivered through NI 155 have been lower than originally anticipated primarily due to the economic climate and the housing market, however we have exceeded the revised target agreed with Government Office. Throughout 2008/09 strategic housing have been working with developers, housing association partners and the Homes and Communities agency to facilitate and maximise affordable housing delivery. Three schemes are in the process of starting on site at present and will see the delivery of approximately 350 new units towards the end of

2010/11 and into 2011/12.

NI_156 Number of households living in temporary accommodation

31 30 8 15

Q4 2009/10

There are 3 households under offer for properties via CBL however the properties are not ready to

Page 7: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Date Range 1

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 PI Code & Short Name

Value Target Status Value Target Status Value Target Status

Performance Data Last Update

Notes & History Latest Note

let as they are awaiting major works via Leger homes as they are not in a lettable standard.

NI_138 Satisfaction of people over 65 with both home and neighbourhood

76.2%

2008/09

This is the first time the PI has been recorded and forms the baseline from which progress will be measured.

NI_187(ii) Tackling fuel poverty – % of people receiving income based benefits living in homes with a high energy efficiency rating: (ii) High energy efficiency

16.89%

17.23%

17.73%

18.07%

2008/09

The next survey is expected to be undertaken in June 2010 - this will provide the outturn for 2009/10. 16.89% is the 2007/8 baseline.

NI_158 % non-decent council homes

53% 55%

35.23%

43.32%

31.92%

2009/10

We have exceeded performance for 2009-10 with an outturn figure of 35.32%. This represents an over performance of 8.09%.

BV63(05) Energy Efficiency of Housing Stock

63.0 62.2

Q4 2009/10

The target has been exceeded.

EconomyL16 Total Void Properties

5,295

4,689 5,265

Q4 2009/10

A questionnaire has been sent out to all owners of empty properties. The deadline for all info is the 21st May. Already have a good indication that many proeprties which were thought empty are not. Data will be examined to offer definitive figure in order to assess a robust form of action in terms of support options and key area indicators. Once figures are established;national indicators can be assessed against Doncasters target

Page 8: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Market Information

Apart from selected northern and southern wards, DMBC prices have historically followed regional trends with around a £20k discount. From 2005 the spread has expanded to £30k. Too soon to tell if this is a jump shift or part of a longer term drift. Implications, discourages migration from DMBC (less affordable to move from DMBC). This makes DMBC as a less attractive place for upwardly mobile starters trying to build up equity, however it may make it more attractive for those seeking to realise equity values. In general not good for economic integration and growth for core market to become semi-detached.

House prices in Doncaster vary greatly across the borough, however the simple average house price is currently £132,463 (based on sales and valuations). This is a 2.9% increase on last year’s prices and 0.5% increase on 2008, suggesting that house values are, in general, returning to the point they where before the housing market crash. Property prices in Doncaster are around 20% lower than the regional average which is £166,014 and 44% lower that the national average of £237,042. From the graph below we can see that Doncaster house prices closely follows the Y&H price trends but with a tendency since 2005 for the gap to widen. Prices rise slower and fall faster.

Page 9: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

(Hometrack, 2010) The number of bedrooms is also a key determinant of price, current average prices in Doncaster by bedrooms count and property type are as follows:

• 1 bedroom flat - £82,900

• 2 bedroom flat - £92,600

• 2 bedroom house - £96,100

• 3 bedroom house - £119,700

• 4 bedroom house - £199,600

House Price Change

Over the past two years house prices have risen 0.5% in Doncaster; however this number masks the real changes in property values in the borough through the housing market crash and the more recent gradual recovery. This is down to the quantity of flats/terraced being sold or valued now as opposed to two years ago, when many more first time buyers where entering the market. The sample size of traditional first time buyer properties has decreased, as the market has fallen, but the sample size of larger family properties has remained quite consistent as have the prices, this will have caused the overall housie price change figure to have remained at a consistent level as there have been relatively more high value sales and fewer low value sales.

Type % Change

Detached - 3.9% Semi - 6.2% Terrace -10.4% Flats -18.1%

(Hometrack, 2010) The above information highlights the need to further interrogate data to establish the true effects of the market down turn.

Affordability Affordability – the lower income of Doncaster residents means that lower house prices do not necessarily lead to more affordability. Also it may be less difficult to get on housing ladder, but harder to be mobile from Doncaster (equity trap). Discourages ambitious young people to start careers in Doncaster, because it is not easy to move away as career develops.

The house price to income ratio in Doncaster is currently 4.21:1 (based on data from the latest Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, CACI and sales and valuations over the last 12 months). The regional house price to earnings is 5.7:1 This means that house prices in the borough are around 4.21 times the average income. Mortgage companies tend to favour borrowing to be on a 3.5 times income

Page 10: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

basis. This means that a large section of the population may not be able to access a mortgage.

Note This chart shows the number of households in different household income bands in the areas (bars) compared to the lower quartile price for different property types in the same area (horizontal lines). The diagonal lines rising from left to right show the value of property that can be afforded at different income multiples by a first time buyer and former owner occupier. The affordability calculations are based on a multiple of the average household income adjusted by the average loan to value for the different types of buyer (see macro-economic trends > Loan to Value for the latest figures). The house price data is based on data from the Hometrack Automated Valuation Model and the incomes data is supplied by CACI. Further details on these sources are available in the Help and Information Section.

Page 11: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Note This table shows the percentage of households priced out of the market in the area. The analysis differentiates between house types and whether or not the purchasers are first time buyers. This is a modelled figure which is derived from the house price and income assumptions in the ‘graph’ section of this analysis. The figures displayed are simply derived from incomes and house prices and do not account for the existing tenures of local residents. The house price data is based on data from the Hometrack Automated Valuation Model and the incomes data is supplied by CACI. Further details on these sources are available in the Help and Information section

(Hometrack, 2010) The above table and graph show the numbers of first time buyers and owner-occupiers priced out of the market. It shows that first time buyers need an income of around £15,000 - £20,000 to cross the threshold to purchase an average terraced property. The vertical bars to left of where the lines cross show the numbers within the income brackets priced out of the market The figure above shows results from DMBC modelling of house prices against income. It shows the percentage of households that are priced out of the market in the area in the post-banking crisis housing market. It is notable that many Doncaster people previously able to buy houses at a higher than average income to house price ratio are no longer able to buy because mortgage lenders are restricting finance and reducing risky lending. It shows that the shift has not just made home ownership inaccessible to first time buyers (FTB). It has trapped a large proportion of owner occupiers, because the combination of low prices and tighter income ratio requirements has left them without the equity or income to upsize1.

1 This is a modelled figure which is derived from the house price and income assumptions in the ‘graph’

section of this analysis. The figures displayed are simply derived from incomes and house prices and do not account for the existing tenures of local residents. The house price data is based on data from the Hometrack Automated Valuation Model and the incomes data is supplied by CACI.

Page 12: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Although the average household income in Doncaster is £31,144 the average salary is £22,776. This means that many household will require a dual income to be able to afford anything above the average terraced property. Furthermore there are over 32,000 single person households in Doncaster and over 8,000 lone parent households. These households are generally located around the central areas and may be unable to afford housing in other areas. Whilst Doncaster does not have such a sever housing affordability problem as some other cities in the region, housing is still unaffordable to many households 34.27% of first time buyers are unable to buy an average semi detached house. Whilst on an income to house price ratio housing may look more affordable than other parts of the country many people may struggle with finding the large deposits that are now required to secure a mortgage.

New Build

In 2010 the average price of a new build flat in Doncaster is £78,800 compared to a regional average of £117,866. This has fallen from £126,259 (Doncaster) in 2007, showing a decline in interest in the new build flat market. Similarly the average price of a new build house in Doncaster has also fallen dramatically since 2007. Whilst the figures show a decline in the new build premium the fall is not as significant as in the new build flat market, where new build flats are now worth less than second hand flats. This is because, as it has been widely reported, the demand for new built flats has been worst hit buy the housing market down turn. Furthermore mortgage companies are more reluctant to lend on new flats due to the unpredictability of the market. Buyers of such properties may find it difficult to secure good mortgage rates and often have to put down even larger deposits, which ultimately effect demand and the sale prices.

New build – Gap between Doncaster and regional market described above discourages new builds relative to other places where prices hold up better. DMBC matching NI targets, but wholly behind on transformational RSS targets – which have now been scrapped.

(Hometrack, 2010)

Housing demand

Page 13: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Market Housing Properties in Doncaster take on average 11.1 weeks to sell, compared to the regional average of 10.5 weeks. This has increased from 9.9 weeks last quarter, and could be due to the influx of new properties on to the market following the scrapping of HIPs. In Doncaster (MD) properties achieve on average 92.1% of their asking price, compared to the regional average of 94.2%. This has increased slightly from last quarter and is reflected in the increase in house values. In 2009 there were 2,046 property sales in Doncaster. This equates to 1.7% of the private housing stock turning over, compared to a regional average of 1.8%. 165 of the 2046 sales were new build. This will be of concern to property developers. Interventions are needed to attract buyers to buy build properties so that building rates and sales can increase, bringing new development and regeneration to Doncaster. Social Housing

In 2009, there were 13,487 people on the Housing Register in Doncaster, compared to 10,763 in 2002. Whilst part of this rise my be due to the effect of the credit crunch, the number of people on the housing waiting list is always subject to fluctuations. This is due to the fact that people need to reregister on the list or they are removed, resulting in peaks and troughs. The general trend however is a steady increase between 2003 and 2009 of around 4000 households.

Number of Households on the Housing Register

2003 10,763

2004 9,227

2005 11,937

2006 16,760

2007 10,751

2008 15,973

2009 13,487

Number of Households on the Housing Register

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Num

ber

of H

ousehold

s

Doncaster (MD)

Trend

Page 14: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

The total social housing stock has steadily fallen over the past few years despite Registered Social Landlord stock additions; this is due to Right to Buy sales and demolitions. Between 2003 and 2009 the total social housing stock has fallen by 3763. in essence the impact of right to buy has been to drive up Housing Register trend.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 RSL Stock 2,578 2,694 2,710 2,806 2,755 2,815 2,955 LA stock 25,103 23,888 22,509 21,636 21,280 21,021 20,963 Total Social housing

27,681 26,582 25,219 24,442 24,035 23,836 23,918

Local Authority and RSL Stock

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Dw

ellin

gs

RSL Stock

LA stock

Social housing

Impact on the economy is a greater proportion of owner occupiers and a reduction in the number of social sector housing. RTB sales can also distort the housing market through the influx of lower property values. The general trend of an increase of households on the waiting lists between 2003 and 2009 of around 4000, coupled with the fact that there are 3763 less social houses in the borough than in 2003 is a stark reality. It means more people are in need of the falling numbers of social housing stock. These figures will be updated in Q2 report following the submission of HSSA data.

Social housing – there is a growing demand relative to supply. Upward trend in register since 2003 of 30-45% (ignoring bureaucratic peaks and troughs.). Right to buy has lowered LA stock but there has not been matching rise in RSL stock.

Housing Supply

The number of dwellings built in Doncaster between 2006 and 2009 is far fewer homes than RSS targets and is expected to continue for the next couple of years.

Page 15: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

However this is also the case for many other areas in the region as property values and sales have fallen.

New Dwellings Built in Doncaster

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 RSS Target

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

new

dw

ell

ing

bu

ilt

Whilst house building in doncaster did not reach targets set out in RSS it did hit the NI 154 target of additional homes as this was lowered from the RSS target of 1230 in light of the credit crunch and the downturn in the housing market. However in the long run doncaster is still required to reach RSS targets, which will mean over hitting annualised targets to make up the deficit from previous years. The RSS housing targets implicitly lead one to view Doncaster’s current annual new build of just under 500 in 2009 (down from an average of about 750 pa for the previous two years) as market under-performance. However the RSS figure was highly aspirational. Current performance may be no more than the natural rate for the market. These figures will be updated in Q2 report following the submission of HSSA data.

Net Housing Completions

2006-2007 (AMR 2009)

Net Housing Completions

2007-2008 (AMR 2009)

Net Housing Completions

2008-2009 (AMR 2009)

RSS Target (2008-2026) (RSS)

Difference to RSS targets 08/09

Change from

06/07 -08/09

% change 06/07-08/09

Barnsley 944 1154 862 1015 -153 -82 -8.69%

Doncaster 697 795 498 1230 -732 -199 -

28.55%

Rotherham 457 526 603 1160 -557 146 31.95%

Sheffield 1604 2486 2507 1425 1082 903 56.30%

Page 16: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Neighbourhood Breakdown

North

Average Property Prices in the North

£0

£50,000

£100,000

£150,000

£200,000

£250,000

Ju

l-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ju

l-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Ju

l-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ju

l-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

l-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ju

l-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Time

Valu

e

Doncaster (MD)

Askern Spa Ward

Adw ick Ward

Bentley Ward

Sprotbrough Ward

Great North Road Ward

With the exception of Sprotbrough average property prices in the north of Doncaster are similar or less than the average prices for the borough on the whole. The Sprotbrough Ward has an average house price of £207,500, which is £71,900 higher than the borough average. Bentley has the lowest average property prices in the north at £92,896, which is £42,704 below average.

East

Average Property Price in East

£0

£20,000

£40,000

£60,000

£80,000

£100,000

£120,000

£140,000

£160,000

£180,000

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Time

Va

lue

Doncaster (MD)

Armthorpe Ward

Hatfield Ward

Stainforth andMoorends Ward

Thorne Ward

Edenthorpe, KirkSandall andBarnby Dun Ward

Page 17: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Property prices in the East area generally similar to the Doncaster average. Armthorpe has the lowest average property prices in the east at £117,402, which is £18,198 below average. Within the East of the borough property prices have fluctuated most in Stainforth and Moorends. Prices rose to £149,699 in 2008 and fell to £108,855 in 2009. This could be due to the impacts of the credit crunch, but could also be due to an influx of new properties and developments in the area between 2008 and 2009.

South

Average Property Prices in South

£0

£50,000

£100,000

£150,000

£200,000

£250,000

£300,000

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Time

Valu

e

Doncaster (MD)

Bessacarr and

Cantley Ward

Finningley

Ward

Rossington

Torne Valley

With the exception of Rossington average property prices in the south of Doncaster are more than the average prices for the borough on the whole. The Torne valley Ward has an average house price of £207,101, which is £71,501 higher than the borough average. Rossington has the lowest average property prices in the south at £114,259, which is £21,341 below average.

Page 18: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

West

Average property Prices in West

£0

£20,000

£40,000

£60,000

£80,000

£100,000

£120,000

£140,000

£160,000

Jul-01

Jan

-02

Jul-02

Jan

-03

Jul-03

Jan

-04

Jul-04

Jan

-05

Jul-05

Jan

-06

Jul-06

Jan

-07

Jul-07

Jan

-08

Jul-08

Jan

-09

Jul-09

Jan

-10

Time

Va

lue

Doncaster (MD)

Edlington andWarmsworthWard

Conisbroughand DenabyWard

Mexborough

Ward

The average property prices in all wards in the west of Doncaster are lower than the borough average. The Mexborough Ward has an average house price of £91,416, which is £44,181 lower than the borough average. Low property prices can be reflective of low demand in the area as well as poor quality stock.

Central

Average Property Prices in Centre

£0

£20,000

£40,000

£60,000

£80,000

£100,000

£120,000

£140,000

£160,000

Jul-0

1

Jan

-02

Jul-0

2

Jan

-03

Jul-0

3

Jan

-04

Jul-0

4

Jan

-05

Jul-0

5

Jan

-06

Jul-0

6

Jan

-07

Jul-0

7

Jan

-08

Jul-0

8

Jan

-09

Jul-0

9

Jan

-10

Time

Vau

le

Doncaster(MD)Town MoorWardBalby Ward

Central Ward

Wheatley

The average property prices in all wards in the centre of Doncaster are lower than the borough average. The Central Ward has an average house price of £85,344, which is £50,256 lower than the borough average. Low property prices can be reflective of low demand in the area as well as poor quality stock.

Page 19: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Focus on….

Acxiom Data This quarter the evidence base report will report on findings from the Acxiom Lifestyle Database. Through a licensing agreement with Yorkshire Forward Strategic Housing have been given access to the Acxiom package. The key benefits of accessing the data are summarised as follows

• Consistent questions combined with full GB coverage • Data available at any local level from SOA upwards • Complementary to existing national resources e.g. ONS population estimates

and Labour Force Survey • Regular updates and recency of data • Time series data from 2003 onwards for trend analysis

Acxiom has been working under contract now for Yorkshire Forward’s Chief Economist Unit for 6 years and Yorkshire Forward sponsors a number of questions on the survey each year. As part of the arrangement with Acxiom we provide the national lifestyle survey data to additional public sector partners across the region. Acxiom is the largest data provider in the UK, with more than 35 years experience helping a wide range of organisations use information to improve marketing and business results. The high volumes of recent actual data collected on an annual basis makes Acxiom data a trusted source in the Public Sector. The data is valid for analysis at low levels of geography, comparable in time-series analysis and available for direct marketing communications. Data collection - The Research Opinion Poll is Acxiom’s household survey that is distributed twice a year in January and September. Sent out nationally, over 1 million responses are received back every year. Data is collected both by post and online across different age groups, which ensures a representative demographic profile of responders. All survey responses are weighted to reflect the population profile, and mapped back to the annual population estimates. The results are available within the same year. The high level of actual responses to the survey, and the quick turnaround of the raw data into results, means that the Research Opinion Poll is almost a mini-Census each year Available data - There are over 600 lifestyle and demographic variables collected each year on the GB population.

• Demographic data such as tenure, length of residency, age, income, qualifications, skills, interest in undertaking further education/qualification and levels of business ownership

• Lifestyle information such as hobbies, shopping, internet, environment and recycling

Page 20: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

• Attitudinal data including perception of place, satisfaction with local services and influence over decisions affecting the local area

PersonicX Geo Personicx Geo is a fundamentally different and enhanced segmentation tool, clustering groups based on their household behaviour not simply their demographics. It moves segmentation forward from those products that are more reliant on the Census. PersonicX Geo gives real differentiation to geographic planning and analysis by defining every UK postcode into one of 60 clusters. Its ability to provide an accurate demographic, lifestyle and behavioural profile at a micro-level is driven by the wealth and depth of individual data behind Acxiom’s Research Opinion Poll. This can help to:

• Estimate and project demand for products and council services • Choose relevant media and communication options • Enhance your own databases by appending relevant behavioural data • Increase breadth and depth of data on your service users • Challenge perceptions held on particular issues • Custom build your own segmentations using PersonicX as a building block • Ensure your own Market Research is representative of the audience you seek • Acquire new users and customers for products and services • Project national research surveys onto your own local area

Available spatial levels - Most variables are available for use at Super Output Area and upwards. You can also access the data for any geographical area you are interested in e.g. England, North East, London, another district (within or outside of Yorkshire and Humber), a comparable city region, e.g. Sheffield, or a comparison site somewhere else in Great Britain. In addition, you can define bespoke geographical areas e.g. most deprived areas, rural areas, town boundaries. How the data can be used

• Monitoring year on year change • Supporting investment bids/funding applications • Impact assessment • Benchmarking • Client profiles • Area profiles • Assessing service supply and demand • Programme evaluation • Forecasting • Model building • Spend projection • Budgetary planning • Internal communication • Developing communications strategies • Ensuring equal service provision across the region • Examining health issues

Page 21: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11
Page 22: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Neighbourhood demographics Blue is the Doncaster average Yellow represents highest five wards Green represents lowest five wards

Page 23: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Age of head of household Type of household Martial Status

Aged 18 to 24

Aged 25 to 34

Aged 35 to 44

Aged 45 to 54

Aged 55 to 64

Aged 65+

Aged 18 to 34 With Children

Aged 18 to 34 Without Children

Aged 35 to 54 With Children

Aged 35 to 54 Without Children

Aged 55 to 64

Aged 65+ Single Married

Divorced / Separated Widowed

Living With Partner

5.90% 15.70% 19.40% 18.60% 14.70% 25.90% 8.60% 13.00% 12.30% 25.60% 14.70% 25.90% 13.70% 50.70% 10.80% 10.00% 14.80%

9.20% 16.80% 17.00% 21.50% 11.80% 23.70% 12.10% 13.90% 12.20% 26.30% 11.80% 23.70% 12.40% 46.40% 11.00% 10.20% 20.10%

6.50% 14.50% 15.10% 19.90% 16.10% 27.90% 9.60% 11.40% 10.80% 24.30% 16.10% 27.90% 13.10% 55.90% 7.70% 10.60% 12.70%

5.80% 19.20% 24.00% 11.00% 13.60% 26.40% 9.70% 15.30% 11.80% 23.20% 13.60% 26.40% 17.40% 41.60% 11.50% 9.40% 20.20%

4.20% 14.60% 24.00% 16.90% 14.40% 26.00% 8.40% 10.30% 14.60% 26.30% 14.40% 26.00% 12.60% 53.00% 9.10% 10.70% 14.50%

3.30% 13.20% 21.10% 14.90% 17.00% 30.50% 6.80% 9.70% 15.30% 20.70% 17.00% 30.50% 10.50% 58.90% 11.30% 12.20% 7.10%

3.50% 16.80% 20.30% 21.00% 13.10% 25.40% 7.50% 12.80% 13.60% 27.70% 13.10% 25.40% 7.30% 55.80% 10.30% 9.30% 17.40%

3.00% 13.30% 21.70% 18.70% 15.20% 28.10% 6.40% 9.90% 13.10% 27.40% 15.20% 28.10% 11.50% 56.20% 10.40% 8.20% 13.70%

4.40% 12.40% 21.90% 18.10% 18.20% 24.90% 5.40% 11.50% 15.00% 25.00% 18.20% 24.90% 7.90% 64.60% 6.70% 8.60% 12.10%

12.10% 14.10% 19.10% 17.00% 14.40% 23.30% 11.30% 15.00% 14.10% 22.00% 14.40% 23.30% 16.60% 49.80% 8.80% 9.50% 15.30%

8.00% 15.80% 17.80% 18.50% 15.20% 24.70% 8.20% 15.60% 13.20% 23.00% 15.20% 24.70% 14.30% 54.00% 7.10% 8.00% 16.60%

5.10% 8.60% 18.70% 20.30% 14.80% 32.60% 3.90% 9.90% 13.00% 26.00% 14.80% 32.60% 12.90% 54.20% 10.70% 14.50% 7.90%

2.00% 8.40% 22.40% 23.50% 18.90% 25.00% 5.30% 5.00% 14.80% 31.00% 18.90% 25.00% 9.20% 62.70% 11.10% 6.30% 10.70%

5.10% 16.50% 21.20% 17.00% 13.30% 26.90% 9.40% 12.20% 14.80% 23.40% 13.30% 26.90% 12.70% 51.10% 13.20% 9.20% 13.90%

4.00% 11.40% 17.90% 15.00% 18.60% 33.10% 4.50% 10.80% 11.60% 21.40% 18.60% 33.10% 10.70% 52.80% 13.40% 9.90% 13.30%

5.50% 18.60% 18.10% 19.60% 14.90% 23.40% 11.60% 12.50% 10.00% 27.60% 14.90% 23.40% 14.50% 47.40% 11.00% 10.20% 16.90%

4.10% 19.30% 17.50% 19.90% 14.20% 25.10% 9.40% 14.00% 10.90% 26.50% 14.20% 25.10% 10.70% 56.00% 7.90% 12.60% 12.70%

7.80% 21.50% 16.50% 18.40% 11.10% 24.80% 11.30% 17.90% 10.10% 24.80% 11.10% 24.80% 14.40% 45.60% 11.90% 10.90% 17.20%

7.30% 19.40% 20.30% 18.40% 12.50% 22.10% 11.60% 15.10% 11.30% 27.50% 12.50% 22.10% 13.70% 46.00% 14.50% 10.50% 15.40%

7.00% 19.00% 16.20% 19.60% 16.90% 21.40% 8.80% 17.20% 7.60% 28.10% 16.90% 21.40% 23.20% 37.10% 14.30% 10.30% 15.30%

5.00% 15.40% 19.00% 20.00% 11.20% 29.40% 8.80% 11.60% 12.40% 26.60% 11.20% 29.40% 16.90% 43.80% 11.90% 10.30% 17.20%

8.70% 17.40% 18.50% 19.10% 14.10% 22.20% 8.50% 17.60% 11.60% 26.10% 14.10% 22.20% 20.90% 42.50% 11.70% 8.00% 17.00%

Page 24: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

North The North of Doncaster tends to have young to middle aged households with the exception of Sprotbrough where there are a higher proportion of older households.

Age of Head of Household

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Aged 18

to 24

Aged 25

to 34

Aged 35

to 44

Aged 45

to 54

Aged 55

to 64

Aged 65+

Age band

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

ho

us

eh

old

s

Adw ick (Doncaster)

Askern Spa (Doncaster)

Bentley (Doncaster)

Great North Road (Doncaster)

Sprotbrough (Doncaster)

Tendency for higher proportion of middle aged households with children compared to the borough average, with the exception of Adwick, where there is a higher amount of young household without children.

Household Types

0.00%5.00%

10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%

Aged 18 to

34 With

Children

Aged 18 to

34 Without

Children

Aged 35 to

54 With

Children

Aged 35 to

54 Without

Children

Aged 55 to

64

Aged 65+

Hosuehold Grouping

% o

f h

ou

se

ho

lds

Adw ick (Doncaster)

Askern Spa (Doncaster)

Bentley (Doncaster)

Great North Road (Doncaster)

Sprotbrough (Doncaster)

Household in the north are generally married or living with partners with the exception of Bentley where there is a higher than average proportion of single households

Page 25: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Martial Status

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Single Married Divorced /

Separated

Widow ed Living With

Partner

Status

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s Adw ick (Doncaster)

Askern Spa (Doncaster)

Bentley (Doncaster)

Great North Road (Doncaster)

Sprotbrough (Doncaster)

East The east of Doncaster has a diverse mix of households Stainforth and Moorends and Thorne have a much higher than average proportion of young households whereas Hatfield and Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun Wards have a low proportion of young households but a high amount of older households.

The demographic make up of the North has an impact on type and demand of housing.

• High proportion of young household in Adwick may require smaller lower value housing typical of first time buyers or rented properties

• Higher numbers of middle aged households with children in Great North Road and Sprotbrough may require large family type homes

• High numbers of older households in Sprotbrough may be looking to down size or may require adaptations to their properties to enable them to stay at home in to their old age.

Page 26: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Age of Head of Household

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Aged 18

to 24

Aged 25

to 34

Aged 35

to 44

Aged 45

to 54

Aged 55

to 64

Aged

65+

Age band

Perc

enta

ge o

f household

s Armthorpe (Doncaster)

Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and

Barnby Dun (Doncaster)

Hatfield (Doncaster)

Stainforth and Moorends

(Doncaster)

Thorne (Doncaster)

Again there is a considerable mix in types of households across the East. Stainforth and Moorends has a higher than average proportion of young households with children, whilst Hatfield and Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun Wards tend to have more middle aged families and older households.

Household Types

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

Age

d 18

to 3

4 W

ith C

hildre

n

Age

d 18

to 3

4 W

ithou

t Childre

n

Age

d 35

to 5

4 W

ith C

hildre

n

Age

d 35

to 5

4 W

ithou

t Childre

n

Age

d 55

to 6

4

Age

d 65

+

Hosuehold Grouping

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Armthorpe (Doncaster)

Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and

Barnby Dun (Doncaster)

Hatfield (Doncaster)

Stainforth and Moorends

(Doncaster)

Thorne (Doncaster)

Reflecting of the types of house hold in the above graph the graph below shows a higher than average amount of married household’s whist Stainforth and Moorends has a high proportion of single households.

Page 27: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Martial Status

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Single

Mar

ried

Divor

ced

/ Sep

arate

d

Widow

ed

Living

With

Par

tner

Status

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Armthorpe (Doncaster)

Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and

Barnby Dun (Doncaster)

Hatfield (Doncaster)

Stainforth and Moorends

(Doncaster)

Thorne (Doncaster)

South Households in the south are generally middle aged to older with Bessacarr and Cantley and Torne Valley having some of the highest proportions of older people in the borough.

The demographic make up of the East has an impact on type and demand of housing.

• High proportion of young household in Stainforth and Moorends and Thorne may require smaller lower value housing typical of first time buyers or rented properties

• Higher numbers of middle aged households with children in Hatfield may require larger family type homes

• High numbers of older households in Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun may be looking to down size or may require adaptations to their properties to enable them to stay at home in to their old age.

Page 28: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Age of Head of Household

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Aged 18

to 24

Aged 25

to 34

Aged 35

to 44

Aged 45

to 54

Aged 55

to 64

Aged 65+

Age band

Perc

en

tag

e o

f

ho

useh

old

s Bessacarr and Cantley (Doncaster)

Finningley (Doncaster)

Rossington (Doncaster)

Torne Valley (Doncaster)

Generally there are a low proportion of young families in the South, with average numbers of middle aged families and a higher proportion of older households.

Household Types

0.00%5.00%

10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%

Aged 18

to 34 With

Children

Aged 18

to 34

Without

Children

Aged 35

to 54 With

Children

Aged 35

to 54

Without

Children

Aged 55

to 64

Aged 65+

Hosuehold Grouping

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Bessacarr and Cantley (Doncaster)

Finningley (Doncaster)

Rossington (Doncaster)

Torne Valley (Doncaster)

Generally the south of Doncaster has a higher than average proportion of divorced and separated households. There is also a high proportion of widower households in Bessacarr reflective of the high numbers of older households in the ward

Martial Status

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Single Married Divorced /

Separated

Widow ed Living With

Partner

Status

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Bessacarr and Cantley (Doncaster)

Finningley (Doncaster)

Rossington (Doncaster)

Torne Valley (Doncaster)

Page 29: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

West

Age of Head of Household

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

Aged 18

to 24

Aged 25

to 34

Aged 35

to 44

Aged 45

to 54

Aged 55

to 64

Aged

65+

Age band

Perc

en

tag

e o

f

ho

useh

old

s

Conisbrough and Denaby (Doncaster)

Edlington and Warmsw orth

(Doncaster)

Mexborough (Doncaster)

Household Types

0.00%5.00%

10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%

Aged 18

to 34 With

Children

Aged 18

to 34

Without

Children

Aged 35

to 54 With

Children

Aged 35

to 54

Without

Children

Aged 55

to 64

Aged 65+

Hosuehold Grouping

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Conisbrough and Denaby (Doncaster)

Edlington and Warmsw orth

(Doncaster)

Mexborough (Doncaster)

The demographic make up of the South has an impact on type and demand of housing.

• The low proportion of young household may be reflective of the high house prices and lack of smaller lower value housing typical of first time buyers or rented properties.

• Higher numbers of middle aged households with children may require larger family type homes

• Bessacarr and Torne Valley have the highest proportions of older households in the borough. These households may be looking to down size or may require adaptations to their properties to enable them to stay at home in to their old age.

Page 30: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Martial Status

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

Single Married Divorced /

Separated

Widow ed Living With

Partner

Status

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s Conisbrough and Denaby (Doncaster)

Edlington and Warmsw orth

(Doncaster)

Mexborough (Doncaster)

Central

Age of Head of Household

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Aged 18

to 24

Aged 25

to 34

Aged 35

to 44

Aged 45

to 54

Aged 55

to 64

Aged

65+

Age band

Perc

en

tag

e o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Balby (Doncaster)

Central (Doncaster)

Town Moor (Doncaster)

Wheatley (Doncaster)

Page 31: Doncaster Housing Market Report Q1 2010/11

Household Types

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Aged 18

to 34

With

Children

Aged 18

to 34

Without

Children

Aged 35

to 54

With

Children

Aged 35

to 54

Without

Children

Aged 55

to 64

Aged

65+

Hosuehold Grouping

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Balby (Doncaster)

Central (Doncaster)

Town Moor (Doncaster)

Wheatley (Doncaster)

Martial Status

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

Single Married Divorced /

Separated

Widowed Living With

Partner

Status

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Balby (Doncaster)

Central (Doncaster)

Town Moor (Doncaster)

Wheatley (Doncaster)