Domestic Heating and VentilationPreparation For Change

Electrex - Birmingham

17th May 2006

Kelly ButlerDirector

Struggling To Keep Up?

• Why we face constant regulatory change

• How have we arrived where we are today?

• What can we expect in the future?

• Key product issues now and in the future

• The probable industry response

Change Is Not Negotiable!• The Energy White Paper 2003 To put ourselves on the path to cut the UK’s CO2 emissions by some 60% by

about 2050, with real progress by 2020 To ensure every home is adequately and affordably heated To maintain the reliability of energy supplies

• The Energy Review 2005/6 Further action needed on climate change beyond 2012 Rising fuel prices UK is a net importer of gas and becoming a net oil importer

The wider view

Climate Change Energy Security

PoliticalEnvironmental

Renewables Nuclear LNG Gas Oil Coal

Carbon Efficiency Energy Production Mix

National Security

Result: Ever tighter regulation

Energy Efficiency

9 Years of Change & Influence1997 – 2000 2000-2005 2006 - - - -

EST Grants SoP3 & EEC (gas) EEC (bigger but relevant?) HECAction Warm Front Energy Services pilots

Energy Efficiency Advice HECAction Warm Front EE Campaign Energy Efficiency Advice Sustainable Energy Advice

HEES (Electric) EE Campaign EE Campaign SoP1&2 (Electric) Endorsement Endorsement

Best Practice Best Practice (CHeSS) Best Practice New Build Regulations Existing Build Regulations Building Regulations

Clear Skies Low Carbon Building Programme Eco Homes Community Heating PV Programme Home Condition Report Community Heating Sustainable Housing Code Sustainable Construction Strategy Eco Homes

1997

The 2006 Macro Market View

Electric Heating Sector

Governm

ent

Agencies etc

Europe

• Energy Policy/Mix

• Home Energy Report

• Warm Front/HEES

• Building Regulations L & F

• SAP 2005

• Code for Sustainable Homes

• Low Carbon Programme

• Decent Homes

• Best Practice

• Eco Homes

• ECA Technology list

• Energy Saving Recommended

• Energy Efficiency Commitment

• Advice Programmes

• Innovation Programmes

• Information campaigns

• WEEE/RoHS Directives

• Energy Using Products Directive

• Energy Performance in Buildings Directive

In A Nutshell

Buildings

Products

Supply

• Thermally efficient

• Air tight

• Lower heat demand

• Ventilation challenge

• Highly efficient

• Sustainable manufacture

• Local generation demand

• System specified

• Lower carbon central generation

• Financial incentives for local generation

• Electrical renaissance expected

• Better metering and tariff options

2006 Product Issues

• Mechanical ventilation expansion • Predictive controls for electric heating• Highly efficient direct/storage systems• Introduction of new renewable offers

– Solar Thermal– Heat pumps– Micro wind and photovoltaic modules

Life In 2010

• 20% further improvement in buildings

• Tougher challenges:– Diminishing returns on thermal performance– Hot water dominant, low heat load (1-2kW)– Adequate fresh air in an air tight house

• Probable emphasis towards ventilation, solar and heat pumps

2010 – Product Issues

• ‘Services’ integration (traditional heating/ventilation/renewables combinations)– Revised SAP approach– Clear package exemplars for dwelling types

• Consolidated supply routes(single supply and distribution/professional contractor relationships)– Product and design training– Marketing support– Design services

The Next 5 years

• Large manufacturers backing systems (big players will drive renewables)

• Distribution framework will converge (merchant and wholesaler takeovers)

• Introduction of Super Contractors(supported by manufacturers and aligned to the brands)

Change Can Be OK

• If you understand the policy vision

and

• If the industry works towards that vision…

in a focused and business like fashion.