Domestic Fragmentation: The Future of the UK · Source: Office for National Statistics; Nowcasting...
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Domestic Fragmentation: The Future of the UK Trajectory Trends Breakfast May 2016
Transcript of Domestic Fragmentation: The Future of the UK · Source: Office for National Statistics; Nowcasting...
Domestic Fragmentation:
The Future of the UK
Trajectory Trends Breakfast
May 2016
Introduction
Fragmentation in the UK
Uneven recovery
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Total GDP, quarterly change after pre-recession peak
80s recession
90s recession
Great Depression
Recent downturn
Source: ONS/Trajectory
The spectre haunting Europe
46%
24%
-4%
-10%
-26%
24%
10%
-20%
-26%-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
18 to
29
30 to
39
40 to
49
50 to
59
60+ AB C1 C2 DE
Remain Lead
Source: YouGov; 16,242 Adults questioned from 21st February to 3rd March
2016
Latest Poll
(YouGov 23rd-24th May, Online)
In:
41%
Out:
41%
FRAGMENTATION IN THE UK
Inequality: Problem Solved?
34%
33%
34%
35%
34%
34%
33%
34%
32%
33%
32%
32%
31%
31%
32%
32%
33%
33%
34%
34%
35%
35%
2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
(p)
UK Gini Coefficient, 2003/04 to 2014/15
Source: Office for National Statistics; Nowcasting household income in the UK: Financial Year Ending 2015
Across the UK the story is different
102.8 103.0 103.0 103.1
95.593.7 93.4 93.9
81.8
79.277.2
75.9
70.9 71.272.5
71.4
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2008 2010 2013 2014
Gross Value Added per head: Indices where UK = 100
England
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Wales
Source: Parliamentary Briefing Paper; Regional and Local Economic Growth Forecasts
A Nation Apart
167.1 166.8170.6
173.4
108.8 109.8 110.6 109.7
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2008 2010 2013 2014
Gross Value Added per head: Indices where UK = 100
North East
North West
Yorkshire & Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
Source: Parliamentary Briefing Paper; Regional and Local Economic Growth Statistics
Elite Clusters
The Elite – 6%
Established Middle Class – 25%
Technical Middle Class – 6%
New Affluent Workers – 15%
Traditional Working Class – 14%
Emergent Service Workers – 19%
The Precariat – 15%
Source: Mike Skinner/BBC; What is your 21st Century Social Class
Clusters of Elites across the UK
Internal Migration
Source: ONS 2013; Internal Migration by Local Authorities in England and Wales
Age Driven Migration
-6000
-1000
4000
9000
14000
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90+
Internal Migration moves into and out of London by age;
year ending June 2013
net inflow outflow
Source: ONS analysis of the age and sex of internal migrants into and out of London for the year ending June 2013
London and the South
0.5% 0.7%
2.1%
3.8%
7.4%
0.0% -0.7%-0.3%
0.8%
4.1%
-0.8%-1.2%
-1.5%
-0.5%
2.1%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Change in employee levels for northern and southern England
regions; 2009-2014
Southern regions
Southern regions
without London
Northern regions
Source: Office for National Statistics; Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES), 2015
Fragmented Provision
UK Tech Businesses
Source: Tech City/Nesta; Tech Nation 2016Source: Ofcom; 2014 Infrastructure Report
Life Expectancy
Source: Office For National Statistics
Life Expectancy at birth by local authority district;
England and Wales 2012-2014
Lives on the Line
83.8
83.8
82.2
87.3
81.0
84.6
80.4
80.4 84.0
83.4
84.6
84.6
87.9 85.9
82.9
82.9
84.0
80.9
80.9
79.9
81.7
80.3
82.7
81.4
79.6
80.4
79.1
Source: London Datastore; Ward Atlas
THE EUROPEAN QUESTION
European Fragmentation
http://bigthink.com/strange-maps/where-europe-shrinks-and-where-it-grows
European Population Change 2001-2011
Perfidious Albion
Source: Comres 2014/FT.com Oct 2015
52%
36%
26%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
British people should
be free to live and
work anywhere in the
EU
All citizens of other EU
countries should have
the right to live and
work in the UK
UK Views
Agree Disagree“If we vote to leave, we will not really
leave. A bargain will be brokered that
preserves some British access to the
European market in exchange for some
duty to observe European laws”
“…and if we vote to stay, we will never
become a truly European nation
anyway. Even if David Cameron
achieves the square root of nought in his
renegotiation of membership, Britain is
already estranged from the EU core by
its currency.”
-- Janan Ganesh, Financial Times Oct
2015
A nation that prefers the status quo
– and rarely votes for regressive change
% saying that trying new things is
‘like me’
EU Big 4 UK
% agreeing that the world is a
more dangerous place
EU Big 4 UK
% saying they would not want to
live next door to an immigrant
EU Big 4 UK
61% 48%
67% 73%
15% 21%
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight, 2015
Continued Fragmentation
Big Data and Fragmentation
Implications
Tom Johnson, [email protected]
Ruairi O’Shea, [email protected]
22 Upper Ground, London, SE1 9PD+44 (0)20 8004 4861
trajectorypartnership.com@TrajectoryTweet
Thank you
