Does Crime Effect Transit Use in Transit-Dependent, Low-Income Areas in Los Angeles?
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Does Crime Effect Transit Use in Transit-Dependent, Low-Income Areas in Los Angeles? Sources: www.istockphoto.com; www.dreamstime.com A Spatial Analysis by Jacki Murdock
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Does Crime Effect Transit Use in Transit-Dependent, Low-Income Areas in Los Angeles?. A Spatial Analysis by Jacki Murdock . Sources: www.istockphoto.com; www.dreamstime.com. How do crime rates effect transit use in low-income, transit-dependent and dense areas within Los Angeles? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Does Crime Effect Transit Use in Transit-Dependent, Low-Income Areas in Los Angeles?
Does Crime Effect Transit Use in Transit-Dependent, Low-Income Areas in Los Angeles?
Sources: www.istockphoto.com; www.dreamstime.com
A Spatial Analysis by Jacki Murdock
How do crime rates effect transit use in low-income, transit-dependent and dense areas within Los Angeles?
So, when there is more crime around a transit transit, do riders choose to go to another transit stop further away from the crime?
Data: METRO bus ridership data for every month (September 2011-January 2012) and LAPD crime data for those months.
The Question
Process of Site Selection
Process 1 Process 2 Process 3
0 6 12 18 243Miles
Final Site Selection
These three variables were weighted with 40% on transit use, 40% on low-income and 20% on density.
I then chose to focus only on the census tracts with the highest combined rates of these variables.
Weighted Variable equation= (0.4*Transit Use)+(0.4*Low-Income)+(0.2*Density)
Sept 2011
Oct
2011N
ov 2011
Dec 2011
Jan 2012
Process: 300 Meter buffer
around the center of each tract.
Summed the ridership data at each stop within the buffer.
600 Meter buffer around the centroid of each tract.
Summed the occurrences of crime in the buffer.
Ran an OLS regression: 0.4% of the change in bus ridership is explained by crime.
Sept 2011
Oct
2011N
ov 2011
Dec 2011
Jan 2012
0.5% of the change in bus ridership is explained by crime in October.
Sept 2011
Oct
2011N
ov 2011
Dec 2011
Jan 2012
0.02% of the change in bus ridership is explained by crime in November.
Sept 2011
Oct
2011N
ov 2011
Dec 2011
Jan 2012
0.7% of the change in bus ridership is explained by crime in December.
Oct
2011N
ov 2011
Dec 2011
Jan 2012
Sept 2011
0.2% of the change in bus ridership is explained by crime in January.
September
October
November
December
January0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0.40%
Percent of the Change in Bus Ridership as Explained by Crime
Month
R-Sq
uare
d Va
lues
(Per
cent
)O
rdinary Least Squares: R-Squared
September
October
November
December
January0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Accuracy of the Model in Predicting the Effect of Crime on Transit
Month
F-St
atisti
c (%
)O
rdinary Least Squares: F-Statistic
There could be a delay in reacting to increased or decreased ridership-so that October’s crime effects September’s ridership.
Include other factors in the physical environment, such as the presence of alley ways, lighting, etc. that could effect both crime rates and transit use.
Compare low-income, high-crime areas with high-income, low-crime areas and see if the latter is more sensitive to fluctuations in crime than are the more transit dependent areas.
Possible Explanations: Moving Forw
ard
Inset Map Graduated Symbols Aggregating Attribute Fields Creating Indices Attribute sub-set selections Geographic sub-set selections Buffering Geoprocessing Geocoding Charts
Skills Used
