Nebraska, 2013-2017 Map 2: Transit Dependent Population ... · Non-Cognitive Predictors of Student...
1
Non-Cognitive Predictors of Student Success: A Predictive Validity Comparison Between Domestic and International Students 322,245 Nebraskans depend on rural transit. 1 in 4 lives in a county without intercity bus stops, and around 1 in 6 lives in an area without demand response services. Non-Cognitive Predictors of Student Success: A Predictive Validity Comparison Between Domestic and International Students INTRO • Transit dependents are usually identified by population characteristics such as age (too young or too old), disability status, or socioeconomic status. However, these characteristics often overlap in aggregate census data, and do not provide an accurate estimate of transit demand. • This study quantified the gaps between transit demand and supply in Rural Nebraska for two of the most common public transit services: intercity bus and demand response. It adapted the census block group formula developed by the U.S. Department of Transportation (Steiss, 2006) and its modifications (Jiao and Dillivan, 2013) to provide a single estimate of the transit dependent population. DATA, MEASUREMENTS & METHODS • DATA: U.S. Census Block Group data comes from the American Community Survey (ACS) 5 year 2013-2017 and 2010 decennial Census. Transit Supply information was accessed on 09/21/2018 through nebraskatransit.com and updated using each providers’ websites. • TRANSIT DEMAND: At the block group level, the transit dependent population (TDP) corresponds to the sum of the following population groups : 1. Transit Dependent Household Population (TDHP), which corresponds to the net difference between household drivers (population over 16 minus the group quarters population) and the total number of vehicles available. If vehicles available surpassed household drivers, the TDHP was set to zero. 2. Forthcoming Riders (FR), which correspond to the population between ages 12-15. 3. Non-institutionalized population living in groups quarters (NIGQP): includes the population living in college/university housing or military quarters. Given that the group quarters population is only available at the census tract level in the latest ACS, I used the block group proportional distribution from the 2010 census to approximate the 2013-2017 estimate. • TRANSIT SUPPLY: For rural transit, this study analyzed the coverages of two services:. 1. Intercity Bus Service 1 is a regularly scheduled bus service with limited stops over fixed routes connecting two or more communities. 2. Demand Response 2 is any non-fixed route system of transporting individuals that requires advanced scheduling by the customer, including services provided by public entities, nonprofits, and private providers. • METHOD: Using Arc GIS, I georeferenced the block group TDP estimates and assessed the gaps based on their location relative to the areas served by rural transit. Nebraska Rural Transit Gap Analysis Lissette Aliaga-Linares, Ph.D. Department of Sociology and Anthropology University of Nebraska at Omaha [email protected] RECOMMENDATIONS & LIMITATIONS • TDP estimates allow to redirect the focus from population characteristics that inhibit mobility (age, disability, etc.) to areas where there are limited vehicles for individuals to use. • TDP has the potential to be used for scenario planning at different distance levels and in combination with other transit measurements (e.g. mobility index) to identify sensitive transit need areas. More adjustments to TDP estimates will be needed to assess transit needs beyond availability. NOTES 1 Providers include Burlington Trailways, Express Arrow, Megabus, Dashabout Shuttle, Panhandle Trails, Denver Coach, and K &S Express.18 counties has at least one intercity bus stop. 2 Demand response service areas refer to towns/city boundaries listed as served by specific providers, no radius service areas were estimated due to lack of consistency in reporting distances and/or driving times for possible pickup locations among providers. 410 towns –from a total of 580- were listed as served by at least one provider. REFERENCES Jiao, Junfeng and Maxwell Dillivan. 2013. “Transit deserts: The gap between demand and supply”. Journal of Public Transportation 16 (3): 23-39. Steiss, Todd .A. 2006. Calculating/analyzing transit dependent populations using 2000 census data and GIS. Census Transportation Planning Package 2000 Status Report. US Department of Transportation. Washington, D.C. Take a picture to download full tables and poster What drives transit demand? What are the rural transit gaps by county? ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Cherry Holt Custer Sioux Lincoln Sheridan Morrill Garden Knox Keith Dawes Rock Brown Gage Hall Dundy Buffalo Grant Chase York Kimball Clay Otoe Frontier Dawson Cedar Burt Platte Perkins Arthur Cheyenne Blaine Loup Hayes Box Butte Cass Boyd Boone Furnas Banner Polk Butler Hooker Valley Saline Logan Pierce Thomas Harlan Dodge Phelps Deuel Keya Paha Nance Wayne Antelope Lancaster Dixon Thayer Adams Saunders McPherson Seward Howard Cuming Hitchcock Garfield Greeley Fillmore Franklin Webster Wheeler Nuckolls Madison Merrick Scotts Bluff Colfax Red Willow Gosper Sherman Jefferson Kearney Hamilton Stanton Pawnee Richardson Nemaha Thurston Johnson Sarpy Douglas Dakota Washington Map 1: Transit Dependent Population and Intercity Bus Services Nebraska, 2013-2017 Sources: Calculations based on estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS) 2013-2017, and Decennial Census 2010, US. Census Bureau Compiled and elaborated by Dr. Lissette Aliaga-Linares, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, UNO % TDP Under 10% >10 - 25 % >25 - 50 % >50 - 75% >75 - 100 % ! Intercity Bus Stops Intercity Bus Service (IBS) Metro Non-metro Type of Demand With Without With Without Forthcoming riders 49,565 17,856 16,667 19,413 Non-institutionalized Group Quarters 16,205 1,944 4,470 5,079 Households 136,364 33,993 15,247 5,442 Total TDP 202,134 53,793 36,384 29,934 % TDP Not served 21.0 45.1 Demand Response Services (DRS) Metro Non-metro Type of Demand With Without With Without Forthcoming riders 53,858 13,563 28,295 7,785 Non-institutionalized Group Quarters 17,691 458 8,544 1,005 Households 143,489 26,868 18,165 2,524 Total TDP 215,038 40,889 55,004 11,314 % TDP Not served 16.0 17.1 Grand Total TDP 255,927 66,318 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Cherry Holt Custer Sioux Lincoln Sheridan Morrill Garden Knox Keith Dawes Rock Brown Gage Hall Dundy Buffalo Grant Chase York Kimball Clay Otoe Frontier Dawson Cedar Burt Platte Perkins Arthur Cheyenne Blaine Loup Hayes Box Butte Cass Boyd Boone Furnas Banner Polk Butler Hooker Valley Saline Logan Pierce Thomas Harlan Thayer Dodge Phelps Deuel Keya Paha Nance Wayne Antelope Lancaster Dixon Adams Saunders McPherson Seward Howard Cuming Hitchcock Garfield Greeley Fillmore FranklinWebster Wheeler Nuckolls Madison Merrick Scotts Bluff Colfax Red Willow Gosper Sherman Jefferson Kearney Hamilton Stanton Pawnee Richardson Nemaha Thurston Johnson Sarpy Douglas Dakota Washington % TDP out of DRS areas Up to 10% >10 - 25% >25 - 50% >50 - 75% >75 - 100% No service gap ! Towns with DRS Map 2: Transit Dependent Population and Towns with Demand Response Services (DRS) Nebraska, 2013-2017 Sources: Calculations based on estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS) 2013-2017, and Decennial Census 2010, US. Census Bureau Compiled and elaborated by Dr. Lissette Aliaga-Linares, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, UNO
Transcript of Nebraska, 2013-2017 Map 2: Transit Dependent Population ... · Non-Cognitive Predictors of Student...
Non-Cognitive Predictors of Student Success:A Predictive Validity Comparison Between Domestic and International Students
322,245 Nebraskans depend on rural transit.
1 in 4 lives in a county without intercity bus
stops, and around 1 in 6 lives in an area
without demand response services.
Non-Cognitive Predictors of Student Success:A Predictive Validity Comparison Between Domestic and International Students
INTRO
• Transit dependents are usually identified by population characteristics
such as age (too young or too old), disability status, or socioeconomic
status. However, these characteristics often overlap in aggregate
census data, and do not provide an accurate estimate of transit
demand.
• This study quantified the gaps between transit demand and supply in
Rural Nebraska for two of the most common public transit services:
intercity bus and demand response. It adapted the census block group
formula developed by the U.S. Department of Transportation (Steiss,
2006) and its modifications (Jiao and Dillivan, 2013) to provide a single
estimate of the transit dependent population.
DATA, MEASUREMENTS & METHODS
• DATA: U.S. Census Block Group data comes from the American
Community Survey (ACS) 5 year 2013-2017 and 2010 decennial
Census. Transit Supply information was accessed on 09/21/2018
through nebraskatransit.com and updated using each providers’
websites.
• TRANSIT DEMAND: At the block group level, the transit dependent
population (TDP) corresponds to the sum of the following population
groups :
1. Transit Dependent Household Population (TDHP), which
corresponds to the net difference between household drivers
(population over 16 minus the group quarters population) and the
total number of vehicles available. If vehicles available surpassed
household drivers, the TDHP was set to zero.
2. Forthcoming Riders (FR), which correspond to the population
between ages 12-15.
3. Non-institutionalized population living in groups quarters
(NIGQP): includes the population living in college/university housing
or military quarters. Given that the group quarters population is only
available at the census tract level in the latest ACS, I used the block
group proportional distribution from the 2010 census to approximate
the 2013-2017 estimate.
• TRANSIT SUPPLY: For rural transit, this study analyzed the coverages
of two services:.
1. Intercity Bus Service1 is a regularly scheduled bus service with
limited stops over fixed routes connecting two or more communities.
2. Demand Response2 is any non-fixed route system
of transporting individuals that requires advanced scheduling by the
customer, including services provided by public entities, nonprofits,
and private providers.
• METHOD: Using Arc GIS, I georeferenced the block group TDP
estimates and assessed the gaps based on their location relative to the
areas served by rural transit.
Nebraska Rural Transit Gap Analysis
Lissette Aliaga-Linares, Ph.D.
Department of Sociology and Anthropology
University of Nebraska at Omaha
RECOMMENDATIONS & LIMITATIONS
• TDP estimates allow to redirect the focus from population
characteristics that inhibit mobility (age, disability, etc.) to areas
where there are limited vehicles for individuals to use.
• TDP has the potential to be used for scenario planning at different
distance levels and in combination with other transit measurements
(e.g. mobility index) to identify sensitive transit need areas. More
adjustments to TDP estimates will be needed to assess transit needs
beyond availability.
NOTES
1 Providers include Burlington Trailways, Express Arrow, Megabus,
Dashabout Shuttle, Panhandle Trails, Denver Coach, and K &S
Express.18 counties has at least one intercity bus stop.2 Demand response service areas refer to towns/city boundaries
listed as served by specific providers, no radius service areas
were estimated due to lack of consistency in reporting distances
and/or driving times for possible pickup locations among providers.
410 towns –from a total of 580- were listed as served by at least one
provider.
REFERENCES
Jiao, Junfeng and Maxwell Dillivan. 2013. “Transit deserts: The gap
between demand and supply”. Journal of Public Transportation 16 (3):
23-39.
Steiss, Todd .A. 2006. Calculating/analyzing transit dependent
populations using 2000 census data and GIS.
Census Transportation Planning Package 2000
Status Report. US Department
of Transportation.
Washington, D.C.
Take a picture to download full tables and poster
What drives transit demand?
What are the rural
transit gaps by
county?!
!!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
! ! ! !
!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
CherryHolt
Custer
Sioux
Lincoln
Sheridan
MorrillGarden
Knox
Keith
Dawes
RockBrown
Gage
Hall
Dundy
Buffalo
Grant
Chase
York
Kimball
Clay
Otoe
Frontier
Dawson
Cedar
Burt
Platte
Perkins
Arthur
Cheyenne
Blaine Loup
Hayes
Box Butte
Cass
Boyd
Boone
Furnas
Banner
Polk Butler
Hooker
Valley
Saline
Logan
Pierce
Thomas
Harlan
Dodge
Phelps
Deuel
Keya Paha
Nance
WayneAntelope
Lancaster
Dixon
Thayer
Adams
Saunders
McPherson
Seward
Howard
Cuming
Hitchcock
Garfield
Greeley
Fillmore
FranklinWebster
Wheeler
Nuckolls
Madison
Merrick
Scotts Bluff
Colfax
Red Willow
Gosper
Sherman
Jefferson
Kearney
Hamilton
Stanton
PawneeRichardson
Nemaha
Thurston
Johnson
Sarpy
Douglas
Dakota
Washington
Map 1: Transit Dependent Population and Intercity Bus ServicesNebraska, 2013-2017
Sources: Calculations based on estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS) 2013-2017, and Decennial Census 2010, US. Census Bureau
Compiled and elaborated by Dr. Lissette Aliaga-Linares, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, UNO
% TDP
Under 10%
>10 - 25 %
>25 - 50 %
>50 - 75%
>75 - 100 %
! Intercity Bus Stops
Intercity Bus Service (IBS)
Metro Non-metro
Type of Demand With Without With Without
Forthcoming riders 49,565 17,856 16,667 19,413
Non-institutionalized Group
Quarters 16,205 1,944 4,470 5,079
Households 136,364 33,993 15,247 5,442
Total TDP 202,134 53,793 36,384 29,934
% TDP Not served 21.0 45.1
Demand Response Services
(DRS)
Metro Non-metro
Type of Demand With Without With Without
Forthcoming riders 53,858 13,563 28,295 7,785
Non-institutionalized Group
Quarters 17,691 458 8,544 1,005
Households 143,489 26,868 18,165 2,524
Total TDP 215,038 40,889 55,004 11,314
% TDP Not served 16.0 17.1
Grand Total TDP 255,927 66,318
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!!
!!!
! !!
!! !
!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!!!
!
!
!
! !!
! !
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
! !
!!!
!!
!
!! !
!
!
!
!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!! !
! !!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!! !
! !
!
!
!
! !!
!
!!! !
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!
!!
!!
!! !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!! !!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!
! !!
!
!
!
!
!! !
!
!
!! !
!!!
!!
! !!
!!
! !!
! !
!!
!
!!
!
!!!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
! !
!!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!!!
!
!
!
! !
!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!! !
!
!
!
! !
! !!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!!
! !
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!!
!
!!
! !
!!
!
!
! !
!!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!
!
! !
!
! !
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
CherryHolt
Custer
Sioux
Lincoln
Sheridan
MorrillGarden
Knox
Keith
Dawes
RockBrown
Gage
Hall
Dundy
Buffalo
Grant
Chase
York
Kimball
Clay
Otoe
Frontier
Dawson
Cedar
Burt
Platte
Perkins
Arthur
Cheyenne
Blaine Loup
Hayes
Box Butte
Cass
Boyd
Boone
Furnas
Banner
Polk Butler
Hooker
Valley
Saline
Logan
Pierce
Thomas
Harlan Thayer
Dodge
Phelps
Deuel
Keya Paha
Nance
WayneAntelope
Lancaster
Dixon
Adams
Saunders
McPherson
Seward
Howard
Cuming
Hitchcock
Garfield
Greeley
Fillmore
FranklinWebster
Wheeler
Nuckolls
Madison
Merrick
Scotts Bluff
Colfax
Red Willow
Gosper
Sherman
Jefferson
Kearney
Hamilton
Stanton
PawneeRichardson
Nemaha
Thurston
Johnson
Sarpy
Douglas
Dakota
Washington
% TDP out of DRS areas
Up to 10%
>10 - 25%
>25 - 50%
>50 - 75%
>75 - 100%
No service gap
! Towns with DRS
Map 2: Transit Dependent Population and Towns with Demand Response Services (DRS)Nebraska, 2013-2017
Sources: Calculations based on estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS) 2013-2017, and Decennial Census 2010, US. Census Bureau
Compiled and elaborated by Dr. Lissette Aliaga-Linares, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, UNO
