DOE Peer Review May 10, 2006 Golden, CO Walt Musial Leader-Offshore Projects National Renewable...

DOE Peer ReviewMay 10, 2006Golden, CO

Walt MusialLeader-Offshore Projects

National Renewable Energy [email protected]

Offshore Wind

DOE Offshore Wind Program History

Current Status of Offshore Industry

Offshore 804-MW out of over 60,000- MW world-wide – less than 2%

Offshore has affected current onshore systems Offshore will continue to influence European markets.

Sweden3%

Netherlands2%

Ireland3%

Germany1%

Denmark53%

United Kingdom

38%

http://www.hamburg-messe.de/Scripte/allgemein_Info/Bestellung_DEWI-Studie/Studie_WindEnergy_en.htm?menu=Visitor

Predicted Growth of German Wind Energy Markets



Land-based wind sites are not close to coastal load centers

Load centers are close to offshore wind sites

Two market approach is needed

Graphic Credit: Bruce Bailey AWS Truewind

Why Offshore Wind in the US?

Graphic Credit: GE Energy

% area class 3 or above

US Population ConcentrationU.S. Wind Resource

U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Opportunity

U.S. Department of EnergyNational Renewable Energy Laboratory

U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Resource

Region 0 - 30 30 - 60 60 - 900 > 900New England 10.3 43.5 130.6 0.0Mid-Atlantic 64.3 126.2 45.3 30.0Great Lakes 15.5 11.6 193.6 0.0California 0.0 0.3 47.8 168.0Pacific Northwest 0.0 1.6 100.4 68.2Total 90.1 183.2 517.7 266.2

GW by Depth (m)

Resource Not Yet Assessed

Offshore Resources Assumptions

Current• 0-5nm excluded• 5-20nm 67% exclusion• 20-50nm 33%

exclusion• Alaska and Hawaii not

included• SC to Mexico excluded• Class 4 not included • No state boundaries

Updates in progress • New maps by AWS Truewind• Exclusions not assumed• Resource by 10-m depths• All States (except FL, AL)• State boundaries• Distance from Shore

0-3nm – State waters 3-6nm – MMS/State zone 6-12nm – MMS High

Viewshed 12-50nm – Low Viewshed

Wind Energy Cost Trends

1981: 40 cents/kWh

• Increased Turbine Size• R&D Advances• Manufacturing

Improvements

2006: 4 - 6 cents/kWh2012: 3.6 cents/kWh

2006: 9.5 cents/kWh

2014: 5 cents/kWh

• Multi-megawatt Turbines• High reliability systems• Infrastructure Improvements

Land-based Offshore

Coastal Energy Prices Are Higher with no Significant Indigenous Sources

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

So u rce : EIA Ce n su s D iv is io n

Ele

ctric

ity P

rices

- A

ll S

ecto

rs (c

ents

/kW

h)

C o as ta l S ta tes w ith S ig n ifican t O ffsh o re Win d

In lan d S ta tes an d S ta tes With No S ig n ifican t

O ffsh o re Win d

DOE/NREL Offshore Wind Energy Program: Approach

Offshore Industry

European Wind Energy Experience

DOE Offshore Wind Energy

Program

Offshore Oil and Gas Industry: The Link to Offshore Wind Energy

Offshore Industry Collaborations are Essential

• MMS regulatory authority

• Offshore industry needs to diversify

• IEC insufficient for structural certification

• Infrastructure owned by offshore industry

• 50 years of offshore experience

Joint Activities with Offshore Industry

Minerals Management Service

• DOE/MMS Memorandum of

Understanding

• Advisory Relationships Established

• Proposed Rulemaking Comments

• Scoping Meetings – Upcoming

Joint Activities with Offshore Industry• Joint Industry Project

– Purpose: Determine requirements for offshore safety and certification.

– Participants: US Offshore Wind Developers, Offshore construction, DOE, MMS

• Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) – Wind Session 150 attended

– Invited for 2007

– High level of interest

• SeaCon Studies

DOE/NREL Offshore Wind Energy Program: Approach

Offshore Industry

European Wind Energy Experience

DOE Offshore Wind Energy

Program

European Collaborations

• NREL/RISO C0-Operating Agents for New International Energy Agency Offshore Annex – XXIII.

• Eight Active Countries

Annex 23 Operating AgentsRisø and NREL

Subtask 1 (Risø)Experience with critical deployment issues

Subtask 2 (NREL)Technical Research for deep water (>30m)

Research Area # 4Offshore Code Comparison

CollaborationUSA

Research Area # 1Ecological Issues and Regulations

NL

Research Area # 2Electrical System Integration

UK

Research Area # 3External Conditions, Layouts and

Design of Offshore Wind FarmsDK

Annex 23 Operating AgentsRisø and NREL

Subtask 1 (Risø)Experience with critical deployment issues

Subtask 2 (NREL)Technical Research for deep water (>30m)

Research Area # 4Offshore Code Comparison

CollaborationUSA

Research Area # 1Ecological Issues and Regulations

NL

Research Area # 2Electrical System Integration

UK

Research Area # 3External Conditions, Layouts and

Design of Offshore Wind FarmsDK

OC3 Slide of results

Horns Rev- Corner turbine enhancements?

Wind Direction

Offshore array modeling and analysis can open new siting options both offshore and onshore

Offshore Wind Cost ElementsOffshore turbine 33% of the life cycle cost vs. 59% onshore

ElectricalInfrastructure

15%

Operation andMaintenance

25%

SupportStructure

24%

Engineering and

Management3%

Turbine33%

derived from NREL cost model and CA-OWEE report 2001

Most of an offshore wind project will come from offshore industry engineering, construction and

support services

0

1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Rotor Size

Co

st p

er M

WSubstructure

Energy per Area

Turbine Costs

Installation

Operation and Maintenance

Grid and Electrical Infrastructure

1

Why Offshore Turbines Will Get Bigger

High capacity offshore infrastructure enables larger

machines.

Deep Water Wind Turbine Development

Current Technology4 to 18 meters depth

up to 14 km from shore

Offshore Wind Technology Development Path90.1 GW >500 GW 183.2 GW

SupportingResearch

andTesting

(LaboratorySupport)

Figure 18. Offshore Wind Technology Research Efforts

Test Validation Design Basis

Public/ PrivateCost-SharedPrototypes

FieldVerification

With CommercialProjects

Concept Studies(SeaCON)

Off

sh

ore

In

du

str

y P

art

ners

hip

sO

ffsh

ore

In

du

str

y P

art

ners

hip

s

Field testing, cost modeling, and reliability and O&M mitigation research

Design tools, codes, standards, test expertise, analysis

Prototype design and testing support, contract management

Offshore industry expertise, focus and guidance

Offshore Technology Pathway Strategy

Laboratory SeaCon

(Subcontracts)

20212020201920182017

DOE Internal Laboratory

Pathway 1 - Shallow Water Technology for Offshore Wind Energy

<30-m Depth – Goal: 5 cents/kWh by 2012 in Class 4 winds

2012201120102009200820072006

NREL/ SNL Management and Support

NREL/ SNL Enabling Research and SR&T

LWST Phase I I Concept Studies

Technology Partnerships

Stage 0 – Components and Systems

Stage 1 - Components

Ocean Verification Turbines (OVP)

DOE LWST Shallow Water Technology Goal


Existing subcontracts

Cost Shared Subcontracts


Subcontracts

Program Goal


Pathway 2 - Transitional Water Depth Technology for Offshore Wind Energy

30-m to 60-m Depth – Goal: 5 cents/kWh by 2016 in Class 6 winds

2012201120102009200820072006 2016201520142013




Cost Shared Technology Partnerships




DOE Transitional Technology Goal


Subcontracts/ Lab

Cost-shared Subcontracts



Program Goal

Sea-based Concept Studies (SeaCon) Subcontracts


Pathway 3 - Deepwater Technology for Offshore Wind Energy

60-m to 900-m Depth – Goal: 5 cents/kWh by 2021 in Class 6 winds

2012201120102009200820072006 2016201520142013




Cost Shared Technology Partnerships




DOE Transitional Technology Goal


Subcontracts/ Lab

Cost shared Subcontracts



Program Goal

Sea-based Concept Studies (SeaCon) Subcontracts

Simplify

Sea-Based Concept Studies (SeaCon)

• DOE/NREL sponsored studies underway:

Objectives:

– Use offshore O&G experience - form partnerships

– Define requirements for infrastructure and technology

– Narrow focus on best technology options

– Establish basis for test bed and system development

Offshore Economic Model DevelopmentOffshore Economic Model Development

Infrastructure Assessment

Fixed- Bottom and Floating

System Scaling

Fixed-bottom Support

Structures

Turbine Optimization (Fixed and Floating)

Grid and Transmission Options

Floating Platforms

O&M and Accessibility

Test Validation of Design Basis Detailed Design

for Test Bed

Environmental and Regulatory Factors Assessments

Life Cycle Cost Elements

Anchor StudyDesign Basis

SafetyStandards External

Conditions

Design BasisSafety

Standards External Conditions

Design Basis•Structural Safety•Offshore Standards •MET Ocean Conditions•Array Effects

Offshore Reliability

SeaCon Studies Connectivity

Transitional Depth Foundations 30-m to 60-m Depths

Tripod Tube Steel

Guyed Tube

Spaceframe, Jacket, or

Truss

Talisman Energy Concept

Suction Bucket

200 GW potential

Floating Foundations >60-m Depths

Dutch tri-floater

Barge Spar Mono-hull TLP

Concept Marine

Associates Concrete

TLP

SWAY

>500 GW potential

Offshore Blade Cost is Low Relative to Total Project

BOS66%

Blades4%

Other Rotor2% Drive train

Nacelle18%

Marinization4%

Tower5%

Controls1%

All of the energy

Cost of Energy

Can we afford more expensive rotors?

Most of the loads 4% of the cost

Regulatory and Environmental

• Drivers for first offshore wind projects in US.

• New regulatory paradigm in process at MMS

• Environmental basisEuropean experience

Cape Wind DEIS

Onshore experience

No major environmental impacts found

• Public acceptance – reservations due to uncertainty and viewshed

SummarySummary• Two market approach for windTwo market approach for wind

• Offshore: European driven Offshore: European driven

• U.S. resource potential near 1000-GWU.S. resource potential near 1000-GW

• Near term US offshore experience neededNear term US offshore experience needed

• Environmental, regulatory, and public perceptions are drivers in Environmental, regulatory, and public perceptions are drivers in

US.US.

• Further R&D is necessary to lower costsFurther R&D is necessary to lower costs

• Offshore O&G industry experience is essentialOffshore O&G industry experience is essential

Wind can potentially supply Wind can potentially supply

20% of electric energy in United States 20% of electric energy in United States

DOE Peer Review May 10, 2006 Golden, CO Walt Musial Leader-Offshore Projects National Renewable...

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