DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 061 076 SE 013 437

TITLE Resources for the Future. Annual Report 1971.INSTITUTION Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, D.C.PUS DATE 71NOTE 116p.

FDRS PRICEDESCRIPTORS

ABSTRACT

MF-$0.65 HC-$6.58*Annual Reports; Ecology; Educational Programs;*Environment; Environmental Education; NaturalResources; *Research; *Social Sciences

Presented is the Annual ReDort for Resources For T eFuture, Inc. (RFF) for the year ending September 30, 1971. Thisorganization is dedicated to advancing the development, conservation,and use of natural resources and the improvement of the quality ofthe environment through programs of research and education. Most oftheir studies are in the field of the social sciences. Documentcontent includes an essay by the group's president, Joseph L. Fisher,entitled "A New Synthesis of Economic Development and EnvironmentalProtection," and two special articles, "Man and His Environment: TheIssues in Perspective," and "The Scrambled Pattern of Suburban LandConversion" both by RFF members. Educational and research programsconducted in the following areas are described: quality of theenvironment, natural environments, land and water resources, energyand minerals, regional and urban studies, appraisals and specialprojects, and Latin American programs. A list of RFF publications,staff activities and writings, and a financial statement are alsoreported. (BL)

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esources for the Future, Inc. is a nonprofittax-exempt corporation chartered under thelaws of the state of New York, with headquar-ters in Washington, D.C. It was established inOctober 1952 with the cooperation of the FordFoundation. Its purpose is to advance the de-velopment, conservation, and use of natural

resources and the improvement of the qualityof the environment through programs of re-search and education. Some of its programsare carried out by the resident staff; some aresupported by grants to universities and othernonprofit organizations. Most of its studies arein the field of the social sciences.

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 55-40198

RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE

Annual Reportfor the year ending 30 September 1971

1755 Massachusetts Avenue, NM., Washington, D.C. 20036

CONTENTS

THE PRESIDENT'S ESSAY

A New Synthesis of EconomicDevelopment and Environmental Protection

TWO SPECIAL ARTICLES

Man and His Environment:The Issues in Perspective 11

The Scrambled Pattern ofSuburban Land Conversion 19

THE YEAR'S WORK IN REVIEW

A Summary ef the Year 20Quality of the Environment 33Natural Environments 41Land and Water 49Energy and Minerals 57Regional and Urban Studies 67Appraisals and Special Projects 76Latin American Program 85Publications 90Related Staff Activities and Writings 98

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 110

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BOARD OF DIRECTORS, 30 September 1971

CHAIRMAN, Erwin D. Canham

Robert 0. AndersonHarrison BrownEdward J. ClearyJoseph L. FisherLuther H. FosterF. Kenneth HareCharles J. HitchCharles F. Luce

HONORARY DIRECTORS

Horace M. AlbrightReuben G. GustaysonHugh L. Keenleyside

OFFICERS

Frank Pace, Jr.William S. PaleyEmanuel R. PioreStanley H. RuttenbergLauren K. SothP. F. WatzekGilbert F. White

Edward S. MasonLaurance S. RockefellerJohn W. Vanderwilt

President, Joseph L. FisherVice President, Michael F. BrewerSecretary-Trensurer, John E. Herbert

Note: Michael F. Brewer, RFF vice president since 1066, resigned atthe end of the program year to become president of the PopufationReference Bureau.

STAFF, 30 September 1.971

President, Joseph L. FisherVice President, Michael F. BrewerSecretory-Treasurer, John E. Herbert

QUALITY OP THE ENVIRONMENT

Allen V. KneeseBlair T. Bower

Thomas B. Cochran*, Jerome K. Delson*, Mason Gaffney,Edwin T. Haefele, Robert A. Kelly", George 0. G. Loft,Talbot Page*, Thomas H. E. Quimby*, Clifford S. Russell,Walter 0. Spofford, Jr.

NATURAL ENVIRONMENTS

John. V. KrutillaCharles J. Cicchetti*, Anthony C. Fisher*, V. Kerry Sm h*

LAND AND WATER

Marion Clawson

ENERGY AND MINERALS

Sam H. SchurrOrris C. Herfindahl

Joel Darmstadter, Milton F. Searl

REGIONAL AND URBAN STUDIES

Lowdon WingoEdgar S. Dunn, Jr., Irving Foch

APPRAISALS AND SPECIAL PROJECTS

Hans H. Landsberg (Appraisals)Frederick J. Wells*

Luther J. Carter*

APPRAISALS AND SPECIAL PROJECTS---cont'd

Francis T. Christy, Jr. (Marine Resources)Neal PottertRonald G. Ridker (Population)

Henry W. Herzog, Jr.*

LATIN AMERICAN PROGRAM

Sterling BrubakerPierre R. Crosson

Delbert A. Pitchett, Ronald G. Cummings (Mexico),Kenneth D. Fr,°:derick (Argentina), Michael Nelson (ILPESChile ),Arthur L. Silvers (Brazil)

PUBLICATIONS

Henry JarrettVera W. Dodds, Tadd Fisher, Nora L. Roots

RESEARCH AND EDITORIAL SERVICES

Elizabeth C. Duenckel, Honor Fairman, Lawrence M. HerrenIris L. Moore, Sally S. Nishiyama, Joan A. O'Brien, Elizabeth A. Reid,Pathana Thananart, William J. Vaughanf, Elizabeth K. Vogelyf,Gwendolyn S. Whipp

SECRETARIAL SERVICES

Kathryn B. Albaugh, Maria L. Aveleyra, Jean L. Edes, R. Rita Gromacki,Olga F. Labourdette, Gail A. McCartney, Doris E. Steil,Diantha W. Stevenson, Helen-Marie Streich, Vera A. Ullrich

ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES

Clifford U. Koh, Ruth F. Johnson, John S. Knapp

* Temporary staff members with RFF for nine months or more.t Part-time appointment.

RFF Associates: Charles M. Haar, Harvey S. Perloff

THE PRESIDENT'S ESSAY

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A New Synthesis ofEconomic Development andEnvironmental Protection

by Joseph L. Fisher

The 1960s opened on an optimistic note; economic developmentwas the password, and goals were stated in terms of raising levelsof living around the world by three, four, or five percent eachyear. In the United States the Idea was to recapture lost momen-tum through an infusica of youthful vigor and policies thatfavored economic growth. In the populous but less-developedparts of the world agricultural science and technology, communitydevelopment, and establishment of basic industry were to be theengines of growth all lubricated by techTlical and financial aidfrom the wealthier countries. Lines could be extended on graphpaper to show that the two billion poor people of the world couldhope for the European or even the U.S. material levels of well-being by the end of the century. The possibilities were euphoric.

By the end of the 1960s dark clouds were everywhere in thesky. In many of the less-developed countries growth rates in aggre-gate production and income barely kept ahead of population in-crease. In the United States inflation persisted, the rate of eco-nomic growth slowed down, and unemployment became uncom-fortably high. The term "stagflation" was coined.

Excluding the excruciating experience of the war in SoutheastAsia and the threat of war elsewhere, two other problems weregreatly intensified during the 1960s. First was the social problemof the cities a compound of poverty, racial segregation, con-gestion, and a serious weakening of the ability of governments tocope with the situation. The second problem, not unrelated to thefirst, was the increasing deterioration in many places of the naturaland physical environment of landscape, water, air, physical struc-tures and arrangements, and amenities of living generally. In abroad sense the physical deterioration was real, but it was greatlyexacerbated by the rising level of expectation about the qualityof the environment. During the closing years of the 1960s moreand more people began to ask why this country, with all its

4

technology, business enterprise, and finance, could not do a betterjob of improving the natural environment.

The long-neglected discipline of ecology came forward to supplya few broad concepts to undergird the environmental movementwhich blossomed nearly everywhere in the country. First here andthere, and then in many places, the developers were put on thedefensive. Plaintiffs were admitted to the courts to press for thepublic interest in a cleaner environment. Legislators at the variouslevels of governments scurried to attach their names to bilis forclean air and clean water. Many young people, particularly frommore comfortably situated families, took up the battle. Some ofthe fears of the eco-people were exaggerated and some of theactions they espoused were ill-advised. But, as the nation enteredthe 1970s their message, whether shrill or subdued, was beingheard. The American political, economic, and social system beganto feel the impact deeply and began the process of accommodationand adjustment amid much complaint and confusion.

If the early 1960s can be characterized in terms of the develop-ment thrust and the late sixties in terms of the environmentalthrust, then what about the 1970s? In my view, the 1970s oughtto be characterized by a synthesis of development with environ-mental protection, across a broad front of human concerns andworking through a variety of programs and institutions. The syn-thesis will not be easily or quickly attained. Modes of behaviorwill have to change, as will the private and public institutionsthrough which, increasingly, human activity is expressed. Newtheories and methods of analysis will have to be developed as ameans of projecting the consequences of present economic andpopulation trends as they bear upon both the natural and socialenvironment. More consistent sets of policies will be required fordealing with such hard problems, to name a few examples, as(1) the demand for energy and alternative sources of supply, (2)the planning and use of land and related water on a more consist-ent basis, (3) the management of the enormous amounts of residualand waste materials thrown off daily by American producers andconsumers, (4) the reconciliation of resource requirements andsupplies on an international scale, (5) the reordering of researchand development efforts more effectively to serve human needs,(6) the employment of tax, regulatory, and incentive measures ina more rational way, and (7) the overhauling of governmental andprivate processes by which priorities are set and decisions madewith regard to resource and environmental matters. Informationaland educational programs will be required if people are to partici-pate effectively in large-scale programs and to understand whatthey are doing. Without progress on all of these fronts it seemsunlikely that a new synthesis of development with environmentalprotection will be achieved in the 1970s.

In short, the challenge for the next decade will be to balance off

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the drive for resource and economic development with the needto soften its harsher effects. The challenge will be to force thenation's attention to the longer view of man on earth and to theconditions for his survival and well-being. In particular, the newsynthesis of development and protection will require that urbanpeople and urban institutions become aware of the ecologicalconstraints of earth, water, and atmosphere within which theymust live.

It will be helpful to sort out the several kinds of enviroarnentaldisruption according to their major effects and characteristics: thelocalized and worldwide; the short-lived and the long-lived; thereversible and the irreversible; those which seriously affect humanhealth, genetic stock, and sustaining capacity of whole ecologicalsystems and those which are merely nuisances; those whoseperpetration and whose consequences can readily be ascribed toparticular individuals and organizations and those whose effectsspread widely to innocent bystanders downstream or downwindor in another country. Finally such a new synthesis will have tobe based on an organic view of the world in which everybody andeverything are interconnected and mankind is truly one familytrying to establish a better home on spaceship earth.

Resources for the Future has been grappling with some of theseissues as best it can within the limits of concepts, funds, andpersonnel. Here are several of the ways we are attempting tomake our contribution.

During the past several months Resources for the Future hasbeen examining systematically the raw-material and environ-mental consequences of several possible rates of population andeconomic growth in this country to the end of this century andbeyond. The vast and complicated set of interrelationships amongpopulation, resources, and environment will always constitutea major concern for mankind. By means of statistical and mathe-matical analysis we are trying to specify the likely requirementsfor many kinds of resource commodities along with the kinds andamounts of pollutants and residual wastes that may be anticipated.Because of the uncertainties of new technology and changes inhuman behavior our results can be no more than approximations,but we hope that the range of possible error can be held withintolerable limits. In addition, special attention is being given to theconsequences of growth (at different rates) on the use of land foragriculture and other purposes, on water resources in the majorregions of the country, and on outdoor recreational resources.

Special work also is under way on the prospects for recyclingmore materials, hitherto discarded, back into production processes.Making use of both older and newer forms of technical analysis,this work should provide a comprehensive view of the population-resource-environment possibilities for the future. The effort thusfar has been somewhat constrained in both time and geographic

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scope: we are looking only as far ahead as the year 2000 or insome instances 2020, and our focus is on the United States,although what is likely to happen elsewhere in the world hasto be considered at least in a general way.

A principal value of this kind of exercise is that a frameworkis established within which significant changes of policy andaction can be visualized and appraised. This work is being donein cooperation with the Commission on Population Growth andthe American Future, but represents also a line of investigationthat RFF had begun previously and expects to continue. One ofour main purposes in this program of studies is to embrace bothresource and economic development options and environmentalconsequences. The two are not separated in the design of theresearch, but linked throughout.

A second example of current RFF work in which both thedevelopmental and the environmental factors are combined is pro-vided by our energy resource program. In cooperation with theNational Science Foundation we have drawn together a compre-hensive statement of energy research needs. Concern in thiscountry has risen rapidly in the last few years both with respectto meeting projected demands and in terms of reducing adverseeffects on the environment. Several danger signs have recentlyappeared: the growth of energy consumption in the last few yearshas been faster than the growth of gross national product, revers-ing a long trend in the opposite direction; in recent years theincrease in proved reserves of crude oil and especially natural gasin this country does not seem to be keeping pace consistently withgrowth in consumption of these products; the thermal efficiency ofconverting fossil fuels to electric energy seems now to be declin-ing, running counter to a long-standing trend; the estimated costsof producing electric energy from nuclear sources are not comingdown as rapidly as previously was expected; higher costs anduncertainties of supply of oil from some other parts of the worldhave not abated; and finally the costs of environmental protectionand improvement, which will not be cheap, will have to be met.

These latter costs will be spread throughout the energy segmentof the economy from reclaiming strip-mine land and protectingocean waters near offshore oil wells, to reducing air pollution fromelectric generating plants and heat discharge and radioactive con-tamination from nuclear plants. Many of the environmental dam-ages associated with energy production and consumption arevisible and important, but the more precise consequences areunknown, and the costs and other problems of avoiding them arenot well understood. Possibilities for reducing the growth inener6 use need to be studied and tested carefully as one way ofameliorating environmental damages. Running through all of thesestudies and speculations is the persistent theme of finding newpatterns that reconcile economic growth with environmental pro-tection.

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A third example can be found in RFF's program of studiesdirected toward the better management of the pollutants andresidual wastes spewed out by the American economy and byAmerican consumers. This work is proceeding on a wide scaleand is now near midstream. It includes theoretical and method-ological analyses, investigations of various regions and pollutingindustries, and studies of the political and other processes bymeans of which the American people may choose the policiesand institutions through which their environment can be im-proved. Much attention is being given to finding ways by whichdecisions affecting the environment can reflect fully and accuratelyenvironmental costs and benefits wherever they occur, as well asthe more conventional costs and benefits resulting from the normalactivities of production and consumption. Forms of regulation inthe interests of environmental protection are being considered,along with incentive measures that would require private firms totake account of the environmental consequences of their activities;the full costs of prevention or correction could then be includedin the prices of the products they sell.

At every point in this program an effort is being made to findwhat I called earlier a new synthesis of resource developmentand use with higher standards of environmental protection. Thisnew factor of environmental protection has to be worked into thevery fabric of the American economy and the economic behaviorof individuals. Understanding how to do this constitutes a chal-lenge of truly major proportions.

I could go on citing examples from our own work or from that ofothers. In our land use and management program, for example,we are trying to understand more deeply the processes throughwhich rural land on the fringes of metropolitan areas are con-verted into urban uses. As anyone can observe, these processesare not working smoothly. As a result the cities are lurching intothe countryside in a way that is sure to leave a residue r4 prob-lems for a long time to come. With nearly all of the populationgrowth in this country expected to occur in the suburban fringesover the next few decades perhaps 80 to 100 million personsby the end of this century or shortly thereafter it becomes amatter of highest importance that transportation and utility lines,industrial, commercial and residential developments, parks andopen spaces be located and made to function so that the amenitiesof a clean and pleasant environment can be secured. Even ifAmerican planners and technicians are able to visualize desirablepatterns for growth, will the governance of our metropolitanregions be adequate to the task of achieving them? RFF intendsto move vigorously on this front in the years ahead, again search-ing for a new synthesis of development and environmental pro-tection without which Americans will surely make a mess ofthings in future years.

8

In all of these fields the role of public policy will be critical.Taxes, subsidies, regulatory actions, incentives for research anddevelopment, trade and investment measures taken by govern-ment, new modes of mediating disputes, political and institutionalrearrangement these are the instruments through which moreprofound changes can be guided and encouraged. Increasingly theresponsibility of government at the various levels needs to beseen more clearly, the options for policy specified, and the con-sequences, both good and bad, laid out so that wise choicescan be made. If resources viewed as commodities (either goodsor services) are to be brought together with resources viewed asenvironment (land, water, and air) if a new synthesis of devel-opment and protection is to be achieved in the 1970s then itwill be necessary to understand how public policy can be em-ployed toward this end.

With this in mind, Resources for the Future expects during thenext few years to place a new and added emphasis on what Iwould call the requirements for better resource and environmentalpolicy. This will take the form of preparing rather iinted studiesof problem situations that call for new policy treatment. Forexample, examination may be directed toward a resource andenvironmental issue in a particular geographic area, toward anexisting set of policies thought to be inadequate, or toward somenew policy that has been proposed. In each case the selection ofthe particular situation will be a discriminating one; our contribu-tion will be to present briefly and carefully the background, ananalysis of the critical factors, and an appraisal of the realisticalternatives for action. We shall draw heavily on our ongoingresearch, but would expect to present the policy studies I amdescribing here in a different and briefer format than the ordinaryresearch book or monograph. A major theme of these policy back-ground End analysis papers will surely be that of finding a newsynthesis of resource and economic development on the one sideand environmental protection and enhancement on the other.

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TWO SPECIAL ARTICLES

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11

Man and His Environment:The Issues in Perspective

What is often called the environmental problem is in fact a complexof problems, which, though interrelated, have quite distinct charac-teristics. Some are localized nuisances; some may threaten all lifeon earth. Some are immediate; the ill effects of others may not befelt for a long time. The most promising ways of dealing with thedifferent problems vary just as widely. A new RFF study seeks topresent a broad, systematic view of the environmental situation andprospects insofar as this can be done with so many of the basicfacts still unexplored or in dispute. The article that follows isadapted from the final chapter of Sterling Brubaker's book To Liveon Eurth, scheduled for publication early in 1972. [See page 80.1

A decade ago the doctrine that economic growth was the touch-stone for dealing with most social problems was virtually unchal-lenged. Europe basked in its economic miracles, Japan loomed onthe horizon as the economic success story it has since become.The United States elected a president committed to getting thecountry moving again, and we stood at the beginning of a hoped-for decade of development for poor countries. As we surveyed theprospects the soaring sixties, no one mentioned the environ-ment. Ye, . scant ten years later earnest orators at Earth Dayobservances warned that mankind had entered an environmentaland demographic crisis, that if we failed to gain control of itwithin the next ten years we were doomed to disaster. Has thesituation changed so abruptly, or are we caught up in an ephem-eral obsession?

There can be no doubt that the situation has indeed changed,not quite so abruptly as our perception of it, but rapidly and fun-damentally. If we attribute the change chiefly to quickened eco-nomic and demographic growth following World War II andproject the trend to the end of the century, we have the makingsof a crisis. it will be difficult, in so short a period, to effect stop-gap technical cures for the fast-deteriorating environment andeven more difficult to alter basic human attitudes toward repro-duction and economic achievement or to change our perceptionof man's role in nature. Such attitudes are the product of manycenturies of development and, at least with respect to reproduc-

bon, may be rooted in the genetic makeup of' the race. Our socialinstitutions also are resistant to abrupt change. Yet if we can turnto account the institutions and motivations that we have, makerational application of science and technology to our near-termproblems, and simultaneously move toward a set of values andaspirations consistent with long-range occupancy of the earth, wecan hope to surmount the crisis.

The root cause of environmental problems is economic anddemographic growth. We have compounded these problems byemphasizing incentives more appropriate to achieving growth thanto improving environmental quality. But even with "wrong" in-centives, development at lesser rates and lower magnitudes untilquite recently did not impinge so strongly on natural systems andthreaten to overwhelm them as it does now. Increasingly we ex-ceed the capacity of natural systems to assimilate waste.

Recent rates of economic growth in many instances representa doubling of output, in the United States in less than twentyyears. In the main, this has meant an equivalent increase in useof raw materials and of discharges to the environment. It is thenature of growth series that the absolute magnitudes representedbuild up rapidly. At the same time, this economic growth hasbeen achieved through the more intensive application of sciencein processing and synthesizing materials, thereby introducing intothe environment exotic materials that cannot be readily assimi-lated or whose effects on man and other species are ill-understood.

There is considerable disagreement over the extent to whicheconomic growth, as distinct from population growth, is respon-sible for the problem. The dispute is not very useful. We knowthat with present per capita income, consumption patterns, andtechnical levels we already sorely burden the environment. Popu-lation alone has not been the principal villain. In the United States,economic growth has proceeded much faster than population, asreflected in our rising per capita standard, and while we havesome of the world's most severe environmental problems, we area country of only average density. In other developed countrieseconomic growth also is the more dynamic element. In less-devel-oped countries where population growth is usually faster, densi-ties greater, and income growth sometimes slow, populationgrowth is the stronger force.

However, population growth cannot be exonerated as a futuresource of difficulty in any country. It has a momentum that ishard to reverse. Although the transitional problems of stabiliza-tion are difficult, they, must be faced at some point, and the advan-tages of stabilizing at a tolerable level are enormous. Whether weput the highest value on environment, income, other forms of life,or the maintenance of options, there is everything tO be said forearly restriction of population growth and hardly anything to besaid for its continuance. When we consider that we cannot in good

12 conscience insist upon the stabilization of incomes elsewhere at

levels below our own, the environmental implications of the in-creases become staggering. Whatever world problems may ariseas a result of economic growth, it is a chilling thougl_t that theywill soon be doubled or quadrupled by population growth. Themagnitude of the problem we must eventually deal with ir closelytied to population.

Since a given output of goods can be obtained with differentlevels of discharge to the environment, we probably could modifyour technology and produce something near our present outputwith considembly less environmental damage. Up to this point,both because of the reserve assimilative capacity of the naturalsystem and because we have used it free of charge, we have hadlittle incentive to minimize the burden imposed on the environ-ment. Now that we recognize such a need, science plays a keyrole. One need is to modify technical processes so as to minimizeharmful discharges. Another is to improve our understanding sothat we can identify and forecast damages and other effects ofthese discharges.

It is surprising to discover how little we know of the effectsof man's activities on larger natural systems, on specific lifecommunities, and on the health of man himself. This ignorancebegins with a lack of information on the character and volumeof many of our industrial discharges. It extends in particular toour understanding of such large systems as the dynamics of theatmosphere and the oceans. We have only a tenuous grasp of themovement of plant nutrients and their migration into water. Thedisposition of pesticides is poorly understood, as are some of theireffects an life. The same goes for radioactivity. We are dependenton science to describe the nature and extent of damage and toidentify problems in advance, so that society can judge what risksit will take. So far we have avoided disaster, but we need a morecomprehensive scientific warning system if we are to have reason-able future assurance.

So long as we choose economic and demographic growth, andso long thereafter as we aspire to improvement in environmentalstandards, there will be a place for technology in elaborating thetechniques of abating pollution. We have hardly begun. Processescan be designed to save materials, to recover or recycle usablematerials, and to neutralize those that must be discharged. Suchpossibilities are strongest in industry, and with some exceptions,in agriculture. The control of materials is more difficult once theyare dispersed into the hands of consumers, but we can expectimprovements in methods of collection, treatment, and recoveryof such residuals as solid wastes, sewage, and auto bodies. Insome cases, the pace of technical solutions will be quickened if

13 the manufacturer is made to assume greater responsibility for

producing more durable and less noxious products, or to attendto their consequences.

Many of our more acute or immediate environmental problemsappear amenable to technical solutions. Much of the burden thatwastes cast upon water can be traced to a few sources inade-quate sewage treatment, a few food processing industries, andpulp and paper mills. Concentrated action in these areas wouldmake a great difference. Excessive nutrients that lower waterquality also derive from cattle feedlots, and perhaps from fertilizeruse in some cases. All but the latter could be dealt with readily.We have a host of problems connected with the use of energy,especially in the combustion of fuels. Although they are not easilysolved, we can go far toward mitigating the effects. Our failureto do so stems from inertia or unwillingness to pay the cost.

We cannot avoid the cost. If we do not pay it in the cost ofproducts, we pay it in damage to health and amenity. Wider ap-precithon of this fact will support the kind of measures neededto ensure that technical solutipns are found. A most urgent needis to provide incentives. Technical solutions will lag as long aswe allow free access to our common environmental property. Ifsociety is made aware of environmental costs and has the meansfor expressing its wishes, then regulation and incentives can beused to keep pollution within limits. We can establish standardsof air and water quality, rationing the portion of the environment'sassimilative capacity that we choose to employ and allowingproduct price to reflect the cost of environmental protection.

The capacity of an airshed or watershed to absorb wastes varieswith a number of conditions. If we aim to maintain air and waterquality within set limits, we have a management task to perform.It may involve the augmentation of capacity, the scheduling ofuse, or other measures for which systems management techniquesare appropriate. When technical advances, incentives, and man-agement are effectively coordinated, we should be able to increasethe flow of useful goods from the economy without equivalentincrease in environmental damage. Moreover, we can aspire to dothis at moderate cost.

But if economic and demographic growth is extended far enoughinto the future, our environmental problem is greatly magnified.At some stage it may overwhelm the technical and managerialmeasures from which we have just derived interim hope. More-over, the availability of resources, which has not been considereda serious short-term problem, cannot be so treated if we projectfar enough into the future. The earth is finite and growth muststop somewhere, whether arrested first by resource limitations orenvironmental tolerances. Massive applications of energy permitmore complete recycling of materials, and can enable us to stave

14 off these limits, but not forever.

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POPULATION

Millionpersons300

200

1900 950

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

2000

Billion1054 dollars

1 , 5 0 0

, 00 0

500

1900: . 1950 2000

Population and economic activityroot causes of nearly all environ-mental problemshave grown impressively in the United States overthe past century and will go much higher in the next three decodesif present trends continue.

Rather than dream of technological utopias that promise evermore goods, perhaps we should take human needs as a startingpoint and consider how we can cut the cloth to fit them. Severalpossibilities are open. We could reduce pressure on the environ-ment by restraining income growth, although it is hard to see howthis could be attempted without major income redistribution.Much could be done through improved design and durability ofgoods to alter patterns of consumption so as to reduce the requiredvolume of materials. Or we could stress nonmaterial forms ofconsumption education, sport, music, and theater, for example.Alas, much travel might have to be excluded from the list becauseof its high use of energy. Most optimistically, there is the chancethat income growth if properly channeled in terms of consump-

5 lion patterns and investment in environmental technology

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be consistent both with increased consumption and improvedenvironmental quality. The chance improves if we do not multiplythe problem by population increase.

On a world scale the United States has set an example of eco-nomic performance that, even at our present level, will be hardfor others to match for generations, if ever. We in this countrymight succeed in controlling our own effluents and in producingand recycling the resources we need, only to find that less-developed countries aspiring to similar economic standards arewilling to take environmental risks of world consequence in orderto achieve them. We would have no moral basis to deny them.

During the decades ahead while we grope for possibly differentvalues we must assume that some economic and demographicgrowth will occur, and we should make the best use of our scien-tific and institutional resources to contain its environmental im-pact. It will be helpful if we keep our problems in perspective,recognizing that some, while annoying and immediate, do notthreaten disaster, while others, less obvious in our daily life, mustbe carefully watched lest they bring catastrophic damage. Wehave no single environmental problem but a host of them, andwe have a number of means of coping with them. Without divert-ing our concern about the long term, we must learn to managethe present.

Sorting out the priorities and devising the best means of dealingwith each will be a complex task. In ascending order of gravityour environmental problems can be ranked in this order: (1) amen-ity considerations like litter, noise, and appearance of cities andcountryside; (2) threats to human health; (3) threats to humangenetics and reproduction; and (4) effects on ecological systemsthat would threaten the earth's capacity to support life. Some ofthe problems are local; others range in scope on up to global. Theremedies that seem appropriate to each problem could involveone or more of a wide variety of economic, institutional, andtechnological approaches.

Many of the less grave threats to the amenities or health seemto annoy the public the most, and are sure to receive concentratedattention. Generally speaking, their effects tend to be local, andthey can be managed at tolerable cost through technological orinstitutional adjustments in the near term. However, this does notjustify complacency, for it is uncertain that we will apply our-selves to achieve the desired results.

The possible consequences of the graver threats tend to bedeferred in time and enlarged in scope, so that the appropriateadministrative unit for dealing with them becomes larger and theremedies are more likely to depend on changes in attitudes andvalues. Sensible strategy will give greater weight to the graverthreats, for we can take few chances with disaster.

For some purposes, the classification of problems into short-16 term and long-term is useful. Short-term problems are those that

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already (or will within a generation or so) require remedial actionto avert unacceptable congestion or to avoid permanent damage.Problems of this sort fall within a planning horizon with whichwe are accustomed to deal. Decisions are made by those who willbear the consequences. Long-range problems strain our conven-tional decision apparatus. We can ensure a future for subsequentgenerations only if we develop an essentially conservationist viewof the earth. The two periods are not entirely separate. They arelinked because many of the actions taken today will condition thepossibilities of tomorrow.

Most health and amenity considerations are one-generationproblems. We may pass on a technology that imposes burdens onour heirs, but they have the same options as we to escape theirdilemma. We are left to our own standards of taste and to ourwillingness to pzy for higher standards; we can hardly be ex-pected to consider only the remote future. In fact, we may bestserve the future by improving our science, technology, and insti-tutions so as to allow future generations to deal with these prob-lems in their own way.

The presence of irreversibilities changes the picture, even forhealth and amenity considerations, because then future genera-tions do have a stake in our actions. We may still choose toproceed with caution. But when dealing with threats to humangenetics or the life-support system we cannot responsibly proceedin the face of such uncertainty. At this point we must invokeanother standard one that holds the life-support system invio-late above all else. The most difficult problem is how to evaluatethe threat its nature, extent, probability, threshold, and the like.

Over the long run, institutions respond to changes in socialvalues. But they always lag, and early attention must be given tothe technical problems of designing social means for dealing withour problems. The potentially valuable role of the market in allo-eating assimilative capacity is obvious, and enlarged managementauthorities capable of dealing with a whole range of problems alsooffer interesting possibilities. Both instruments need further elab-oration. Our experience with them is limited, and our hopes fortheir effectiveness could be disappointed.

Whatever the instruments used, the framework of social goalswill be set somewhat independently. The process of arriving atthe public's wishes is difficult. We all want a clean and healthyenvironment but disagree on who gives up what to get how muchof it. The fact that the environment is held in common requiresthat social choices be made. Economic criteria give us importantdimensions of this choice, namely, the cost of the technical alter-natives that scientists and engineers cast up, and comparisonsbetween measurable costs and benefits, but in the end we fallback on political processes for arriving at policy. The level atwhich decisions should be made, the designing of political units

17 of proper scope, the procedures for framing issues, the mechanics

20

of bargaining to arrive at policy all are part of the process.Man's attitude toward his role in the scheme of things is funda-

mental to many questions. In particular, the extent to which weare prepared to occupy and transform the earth hinges on this.We probably can survive [although this is not certain) in a thor-oughly synthetic environment in which most natural systems havebeen destroyed. If we take this path we venture into an unknownfar greater than that which lay ahead of any quest of the past,for we take all of life with us and there is no return. It is hardto see that the gain could be worth the risk. If we are not to gothat route step by step, then we must consciously and soonrestrict our range.

Our prospect viewed from the standpoint of our possibilities isreasonably optimistic. We can improve our technology and man-agement so as to eliminate much environmental damage and wecan continue to generate a social dividend, part of which may bedevoted to environmental preservation. By adjustments of con-sumption patterns, income, and numbers we can aspire to perma-nent occupancy of our planet.

The question is whether we have the will and the foresight totake all the necessary measures in time to reform our individ-ual thinking and to organize ourselves at appropriate levels todeal with our problems. We must truly learn to govern ourselvesif we are to survive. The task calls for the most arduous personaland social discipline. While some current tendencies toward asimpler life would reduce the environmental burden, they oftenare accompanied by anti-rational attitudes and a mistrust for orga-nization of the sort needed to manage a complex system. A newset of values is needed in which the commitment to environmentalquality is wedded to personal values and life styles that do notnegate our progress but seek rather to make it serve a new vision.

While a few technocrats may thrill to the vision of a far morenumerous population living in a highly synthetic world, most ofus cannot so readily abandon the natural system in which the racewas formed. If it is our aim to come to terms with that systemand occupy a role within it, then we must contemplate early limi-tation of our numbers and devise a technology that stringentlylimits environmental burden. While this may allow for some in-come growth as our understanding improves, it gives precedenceto the preservation of major elements of the natural system. Itimplies a kind of responsibility which is the absolute antithesisof the query, "What did posterity ever do for me?"

As a setting for human life such a prospect promises to be farmore satisfying than one in which man barely manages to survivein a mad race between technology and population. One cannotknow whether we will accomplish this shift. Much depends onhow we in the United States spend our scientific and social capitaland momentum. The situation does not call for despair, but we

18 urgently need sustained intelligent concern and action.

cioK.. -Z.

The Scrambled Pattern ofSuburban Land Conversion

Urbanization in the United States has come more and more to meansuburbanization. A growing proportion of an increasing total pop-ulation lives in metropolitan areas, but the older core areas have notkept pace; indeed, some have actually lost population in recentyears as people have moved out into surrounding territory to findmore room, The resulting pattern of land use has few unqualifiedadmirers, and has aggravated some of the most pressing social,economic, and political problems of our times. In a recent RFF studyMarion Clawson concludes that many of the difficulties grow out ofthe processes by which rural land is converted to suburban uses;explores their nature and effects; and offers some suggestions forimprovement. The article that follows is based upon his new book,Suburban Land Conversion in the United States: An Economic aridGovernmental Process.

The transformation of the United States from a rural to an urbannation is a familiar story. When the first census was taken in 1790about 5 percent of a total population of around 4 million lived in"cities" of more than 2,500. Today nearly three-quarters of apopulation of over 200 million is urban, and the shift is continuing.Not so widely recognized, perhaps, though also of long standing,is the rising share of the suburbs in this growth. The latter trendhas been statistically obscured by the fact that over the yearsmost of th3 older cities have been extending their legal boundaries.fly now slightly more than half of the population classified asurban lives beyond the central cities, and many industrial plantsand retail businesses have been moving out to the suburbs alongwith the people.

The process of suburbanization is the most important changein land use that is taking place in this country today. The sub-urban fringe, which in most cases extends a few miles beyond theactually settled areas, is where the action is land transfers,conversion of land from one use to another, and marked changesin land prices.

Some of the results of all this activity are plain for all to seemillions of new homes, some attractive, some drab; garish stripdevelopment strung far out along main highways; vacant lots and

19 some larger tracts passed over in the outward thrust; new shop-

ping centers and industrial parks; and creeping traffic with itsreek of engine fumes during morning and evening rush hours.

Other results are less visible. Generally speaking, the cost ofbuying and servicing a home in the suburbs is unnecessarily high.This has had its effects on the kinds of people who live there andon their patterns of family and community life.

Perhaps most important of all are the effects of the suburban-ization process upon the inner cities. Although the suburbs drainoff many of the long-time inhabitants of the core areas along withthe more affluent newcomers to metropolis, suburban houses arebeyond the financial reach of poorer families, which usually in-clude most of the blacks and other minority groups. This barrieris often reinforced by zoning requirements for large lots andexpensive houses. Thus for many inner city families the suburbsare more like walls to hem them in than avenues to beckon themout. This is one of the main reasons why tax bases in the centralcities erode; the support of education, health, arid other servicesdeclines; and ghettos develop. Many of our most pressing nationalproblems public welfare, racial tension, crime, and violenceare primarily problems of the city. The present pattern of sub-urban growth, though by no means the only cause of any of thesedifficulties, has contributed to all of them. This pattern, in turn,is largely shaped by the actual processes by which land is eon-vertei to suburban uses.

At the beginning of the chain is the farmer (or other owner whoheld land for purely rural purposes). Contrary to common belief,he is seldom on the scene when the active phase of land conver-sion begins. Usually he has sold out at a profit some yearsbefore to a land speculator. The speculator (the term is not usedhere in any pejorative sense) may be a purposeful land assembleror merely someone with faith in future land values and access tocapital. Next enters the developer, who does more than anyoneelse to put his stamp on the suburb-to-be. He estimates the de-mand for the kind of housing he plans to build, sometimes onthe basis of careful study, sometimes on hunch; acquires the land;and decides on the lot and street layout. (To further complicatethe picture, the developer does not have to be a single person orfirm; his functions often are divided among brokers, site planners,builders, and other specialized operators.) Last comes the subur-ban homebuyer or apartment renter whose choices and willingnessto spend are the fuel that makes the whole process go.

The whole process of suburban expansion requires substantialamounts of capital. Both developers and final buyers dependheavily on loans, and the attitudes of lenders toward particularareas, types of housing, and individual developers strongly influ-ence many development decisions. Most lenders are interested

20 above all in "financial soundness" which they usually measure

As urban development spreads outward from the older city center itjumps over many tracts of vacant land, some of which are wholly orpartially "in filled" by later development. The extent of this bypassingis one measure of land use examined in Suburban Land Conversion(see page 49). The map'is adapted from one appearing in the Tri-State

21 Transportation Comthission's 1967 report, Measure of a Region.

by extremely conservative standards. In general, the pursuit ofsoundness has operated to reinforce tendencies toward suburbansegregation by income and consequently race.

Although suburbanization comes about mainly through a net-work of private decisions and transactions, public agencies playan important part by providing the framework within whichdevelopment takes place and often by intervening more actively.Federal tax laws, credit programs, and aid to highway building,for instance, have generally stimulated suburban growth and in-fluenced its directions. States, and in some areas regional authori-ties, also are involved, though to a lesser degree. By far the mostactive government participation comes at the local level. In addi-tion to levying taxes, city and county governments exercise avariety of powers, such as planning, zoning, subdivision regula-tion, and housing codes. Some or all of these powers have beenused vigorously in some localities, less so in others. Some deci-sions of local governments, or of boards established by them,have been influenced by pressures from interested parties. Zoning,upon which much reliance has been placed as a means of imposingorder upon the suburbanization process, has generally proveda weak reed, especially where it has been applied in an ad hocmanner without regard to a long-range master plan, if indeedthere is one. The nominal planners often are not the real planners,fragments of that function having been usurped by sewer builders,transportation authorities, and other operating units of govern-m t .

In its barest outline, this is th ,! system, if such it can be called,by which suburbanization has gone forward. The principal actorsare private firms or individuals, each seeking his own gain. Publicagencies influence the process, but cannot control it; their effortsare not coordinated and often they work at crosn-purposes. Noone person or organization is responsible for the whole job andits final results. There are indeed general planning organizationsinterested in the long-range development of a city or metropolitanarea but almost always they lack means to carry out their ideas.

ge The whole haphazard process has brought mixed results. On theplus side, millions of suburban homes and hundreds of shoppingcenters have been built during the past twenty years. Many ofthe houses and apartments are comfortable and many of the newneighborhoods pleasant. Schools, churches, and other communityinstitutions have been developed. The energy and ingenuity shownby both private and public participants in expanding the suburbshas given the movement a vitality that is clearly a national asset.

On the other hand, there are serious disadvantages. Costs havebeen too high, mainly because of sharp and continuing increasesin land prices although other forces have been at work. In a 1968RFF study A. Allan Schmid, on the basis of the incomplete data

22 he was able to assemble, estimated that an acre worth $300 as

farmland would be worth P10,072 as an improved lot, an increasein land value of $3,440 when the cost of the developer's improve-ments is deducted. Even more important than the excessive costsf the kinds of housing actually produced is the fact that land

prices have inhibited the building of more modest housing. Housesbuilt on expensive lots had also to be expensive if the price forthe whole package was to seem reasonable. This trend has beenstrengthened by the desire of many suburban units of governmentto make the cost of new housing beyond the reach of lower-income people.

The suburbanization process has been wasteful of land. Largeand small tracts are leapfrogged in the hit-or-miss spread ofdevelopment. Even in areas officially classified as urbanized per-haps 30 percent of the land still is not in urban uses. (This esti-mate does not include land publicly held for streets, recreation,or open space, which certainly should be considered as "used.-)The resulting urban sprawl is not only often unsightly but alsocostly to suburban residents. Scatteration of public services likewater and gas and electricity involves costs that probably average$150 a year per family above what would be incurred in reason-ably compact settlements. And this sum does not include thetaxpayers' share of added costs of roads and greater dependenceon private automobiles and the accompanying rise in air pollution.

Finally, programs like air pollution control and development ofcoordinated regional transportation, which must be undertakenon a metropolitan scale, have been made much more difficult bythe fragmentation of government in metropolitan areas. Eachsuburban community wants to be "independent" in some sense.The physical and economic city has outgrown the legal andpolitical city. Although the suburban land conversion process hasnot been wholly responsible for this situation, it has done muchto bring it about.

It is clear that processes of suburban land conversion havefailed to meet the needs of a very large segment of the populationand have generally been inefficient and overcostly for all con-cerned. Any real improvement will call for major changes in thepresent system. Some of the possibilities are noted briefly below.

Many of them consist in doing better what already is beingdone ineffectively. Planning of land use and other aspects of sub-urban growth could be strengthened by more precise estimates ofthe benefits and costs of a particular plan and by estimates oftheir incidence: who gains, who loses, and by how much? Also,while a plan is being formulated, planners might work moreclosely with the full range of interested private groups and nothold as aloof from political processes as in the past. Authorityto zone should require that a responsible unit of local governmentfirst adopt and then pay attention to a general land use plan.In addition there should be provision for appeals from local zon-

23 ing decisions to regional levels of government. Finally, inordinate

26

pressure upon zoning authorities can be prevented only if somemeans is found to avoid windfall gains.

Extension of public improvements such as roads and sewer andwater lines, and the pricing of such services, should be in accord-ance with a general plan of development. This can be done onlyif the general governing body of a county or some other areagains or regains control over specialized service agencies.

Improvement of the functioning of the suburban land marketfirst of all will require better information on land transactions.Among newer measures that would help is a change in the federalincome tax laws to transfer increases in raw land prices from thecapital gains to the ordinary income category. The federal taxrules under which new owners of rental properties can repeat theprocess of charging off depreciation could be changed so as topermit full depreciation allowances for a property to be madeonly once. Local real estate taxes could be modified to shift moreof the burden on land and away from improvements. Assess-ments on idle land could be adjusted more quickly to changes inmarket prices and in rezoning. All of these changes would helpreduce inordinate profits from land speculation.

Some units of local government are too small to function effec-tively. Steps could be taken to abolish the very smallest units andto encourage larger units on a metropolis-wide scale. Such changeswould also promote a more useful and equitable sharing of reve-nues and costs.

All these improvements, and others like them, would make thesuburban land market and the conversion process function better.Yet it is doubtful that they would be sufficient. If we really wishto cure the major deficiencies of suburbanization, public purchaseof land must be initiated and carried out on an adequate scale.The usefulness of advance public buying of land for public pur-poses already is well established. What is suggested here is ex-tensive public purchase of land to be later sold or leased undercarefully specified terms to private developers for residential,commercial, or industrial purposes. Whether by negotiation orcondemnation under the right of emineht domain, the land wouldbe bought at current market prices. The subsequent sale or leaseof the property could specify not only the uses to which the landwas to be put, but many other conditions, including design. Be-cause the successful bidder would enter the contract by his freechoice, there would be no legal reason why the terms of saleshould not specify much more relating to future land use than thecourts have upheld as reasonable in zoning cases. Although amaximum price for the public lands sold would be one objective,it need not be the controlling one. The conditions of sale couldprovide that the developer offer the lots and houses at not morethan a stipulated price. This may be the only way in which sub-urban housing can be made available to lower-income families, at

24 least for some years.

Some combination of improved and new methods could do muchto make the suburbanization process more orderly and efficientand put it more in line with pressing social needs. Naturally, itwould not bring Utopia; for one thing it could only alleviate theproblem of housing for the poor, which cannot be really dealt withunless and until the great gap between lower and upper levels isnarrowed through a broad national effort. Neither will the sug-gested remedies be easy; but they do seem feasible if the Ameri-can people are willing to put enough thought and effort into them.And their realization would bring benefits not only to the suburbsand central cities, but to the whole country.

25

THE YEA 'S WORK IN REVIEW

) -2

A Summary of the Year

Population, a major element in most problems of environmentalquality and natural resource adequacy, received increasingly ex-plicit attention in RFF's work during the 1971 program year.Activity in Latin America was expanded when liaison was estab-lished with a center for regional development and planning inBrazil. Research into questions of current public resource policywas expanded, some of it supported by public or nonprofit privateagencies that had asked RFF to undertake studies in areas of ourspecial interest and competence. A broad study for general readerson man's relation to his physical environment was completed.Several long-term, comprehensive studies were published orbrought near to publication.

At the request of the President's Commission on PopulationGrowth and the American Future, an inquiry into the probablefuture relationships among population growth, economic growth,and environmental quality in the United States was begun andlargely completed during the program year. The project is closelyreated to RFF's environmental quality program and to a plannedupdating of our 1963 study bearing on resource adequacy up tothe year 2000, both of which are noted below. Late in the pro-gram year RFF received a $20,000 grant from the General ServiceFoundation of St. Paul, Minnesota, to examine the possibilities ofextending the population-environment study to an exploration ofworldwide prospects.

RFF's two contributions to the series of Middle Eastern studies,conducted in cooperation with the Rand Corporation, were pub-lished during the program year. One dealt with the area's agri-cultural potential and the other with its petroleum resources. Areport on possibilities for land and water development in theLower Mekong Basin, made late in the 1970 year for the WorldBank, was published for general distribution. The cooperativeprogram of teaching and research in Latin America, already estab-

29 lished in Mexico and Argentina, was extended with the appoint-

30

ment of an RFF representative in Brazil. The longer-standingcollaboration with the Latin American Institute for Economic andSocial Planning, at Santiago, Chile, was continued. A study ofwater management in the arid regions of nothern Mexico wascompleted and is being prepared for publication in English andSpanish. Studies of foreign investment in Latin American forestindustries and of problems of rural underemployment and agri-cultural stagnation were begun.

The residuals management model that is central to much of theprogram of research into environmental quality was further de-veloped and extended during the past year and preliminary workwas begun toward applying the model to an actual area thelower Delaware Valley. Progress was made in supporting studiesof residuals generation in specific industries, and one of themwool processing was completed. A general inquiry into theproblems and possibilities of recycling was begun, and work ona case study was continued. Research into institutional aspectsof residuals management was expanded to include new studiesof public responses to various methods of pollution abatement.Further support was given to continuing study of the relationof air pollution to human health. At the theoretical level, researchwas begun into the desirability and feasibility of supplementingthe accepted indicators of economic levels mainly gross na-tional product with indicators of environmental quality; anda monograph on the economics of environmental quality from amaterials-balance approach was published. Also published duringthe year was a set of regional projections of water supply anddemand in the United States in relation to quality, quantity, andeconomic growth.

Research into problems of natural environments wilderness,backcountry, and other unspoiled areas was tirried forward ina number of projects relating to both the allocation and manage-ment of such land and water resources. Current results of severalof these inquiries were presented and discussed at a workshopconi.erence in August. At the ciose of the year the papers werebeing revised on the basis of workshop discussions. A study ofthe ecology of wildlife populations, with special regard to man-agement alternatives, was begun. A monograph on competition inthe wetlands of the Midwest between use for agricultural pro-duction and use as wildlife habitat was published during the year.

A broad study of the economic and political aspects of suburbanland conversion in the United States was published during theprogram year. A parallel study for Great Britain, made with RFFsupport, was completed and being prepared for publication in thatcountry. Both studies provided background for a comparative

30 analysis of problems of urban growth in the two countries, which

31

was near completion at the close of the year. A case study ofmethods of evaluating flood control policies, based on data fromthe Po Valley in Italy, was completed. A study of the biological,economic, and public policy aspects of wildlife management wasbegun. Two water managemeat studies were published, one deal-ing with interbasin transfers and the other with the relationshipbetween drought hazards and urban water supply planning.

A study of research needs in the broad area of energy policy,begun early in the program year at the request of the NationalScience Foundation, was in draft form at the year's end and wasformally submitted in October. University scholars and industryand government officials were principal speakers in April at anRFF Forum on energy, economic growth, and the environment.The papers, as revised by their authors, are being prepared forpublication. Studies of the structure of mineral industries in manycountries and of the problems of mineral-exporting countries werebegun. A comprehensive volume on long-term trends in energyconsumption, production, and international trade since the 1920swas scheduled for publication before the end of 1971. Publishedduring the program year were studies of petroleum conservationin the United States, foreign investment in the petroleum andmineral industries, and changes in the world market for iron oresince 1950.

At a five-day conference in Glasgow, conducted jointly by RFFand the University of Glasgow, British and American scholarsexplored the theories, methods, and effectiveness of nationalpolicies for urban and regional development as they have beencarried out in the two countries. The conference papers will bepublished in two special issues of the international journal UrbanStudies. A number of the papers being written for the Commissionon Governance of Metropolitan Regions, organized in the 1970program year under RFF sponsorship, were completed. Ten ofthem are being prepared for publication in three small volumes,with further volumes in the series expected. Studies of the federalrole in regional development and of the concept of social learningas a key to understanding processes of economic and social de-velopment were published during the year, and a study of thestructure of urban communities was sent to press.

NI A study of present and prospective environmental problems, de-signed for general readers and based primarily on the results ofRFF research, was completed and sent to press at the close ofthe program year. Publication of a cloth edition is set for early1972, with a paperback edition to follow. An updating of RFF's1963 study of natural resource adequacy to the year 2000 wasundertaken. Draft materials for a shorter version of the orig-inal volume were in hand at the close of the year. The work also

32

will feed into the current population- nvironment study notedabove.

Twenty grants totaling $175,000 were made during the year.Eleven fellowships amounting to $43,750 were awarded to doc-toral candidates whose dissertations will deal with social scienceaspects of natural resource and environmental problems. Fourteentheses by earlier recipients of fellowships were completed. Seven-teen books were published and eight others sent to press as partof RFF's own publication program. Seven manuscripts resultingfrom research supported partly or wholly by RFF were publishedunder the sponsorship of seven other institutions.

32

Quality of the Environment

Nearly all the research of Resources for the Future bears in somedegree upon questions of the environment. The program devotedexclusively to quality of the environment addresses such prob-lems directly. The work is premised upon the belief that the manykinds of pollution and the possibilities for abating them are sostrongly interrelated that a comprehensive approach is needed tounderstand environmental threats and point the way toward reme-dial programs and policies. Most of the work concerns the man-agement of the residuals of high-level production and consump-tion. An allied but autonomous REF program deals with the some-what specialized problems of natural environments such aswilderness and back country.

REGIONAL RESIDUALS MANAGEMENT

Central to work in this area is the development of a model, orarticulated system of relationships, by which the probable directeffects and side-effects of various assumed situations, as well aspolicies and management strategies, can be calculated. Duringthe past year the model has been developed to a point at whichit can soon be applied in an illustrative way to a specific area.

The model is designed to deal simultaneously with energy andmaterial residuals, including the three forms of the latter air-borne, waterborne, and solid by allowing consideration ofphysical trade-offs among them in the processes of production,residuals handling, and consumption. It also permits considera-tion of changes within production processes, such as variationsthat would affect, for example, the quality of raw material inputs,modifications of product outputs, and variations in the degree ofreuse of residuals.

The residuals management model consists of four submodels:(1) a linear interindustry model permitting choices among assumedproduction processes and residuals modification and discharge

33 activities; (2) a set of ecological models relating the movement and

degradation of residuals discharged into the environment to theirimpacts on specific plant and animal groups; (3) a set of receptordamage functions relating the concentrations of residuals, or im-pacts on species, to the costs and damages incurred by man; and(4) a model of political choice processes, which permits theaggregation of political preferences with respect to environmentaland other public choice issues. Early versions of the model weredevised by Clifh.rd Russell and Walter Spofford, who continue totake a leading part in improving the model as well as in applyingit to a case area.

One of two significant improvements made in the model duringthe past year replaces some of the earlier environmental diffusioncalculations with ecological relationships. Robert Kelly, a recentPh.D. in ecology from the University of North Carolina, is work-ing with the RFF staff to develop models for relating residualsdischarges to impacts on plant and animal groups (submodel 2).Although the more conventional approach of analyzing the diffu-sion of materials in air and water yields necessary information,it cannot bridge the gap between conditions in the physical andchemical environment and impacts on life processes. Kelly isapplying ecological principles to a large-scale resources manage-ment problem that is part of the Delaware Valley project describedbelow.

The second improvement in the overall model takes into ac-count public choices and public choice mechanisms (subrnodel 4),concerning, for example, distribution of benefits from improvedenvironmental conditions and allocation of the costs of achievingthese conditions. Edwin Haefele is developing the submodel sothat it can provide information about this set of problems in thecontext not only of alternative management plans but also of thepreferences of the citizens affected. Elizabeth Reid is assistingwith data collection and analysis.

While these improvements and modifications are taking place .

a start has been made in applying the residuals management modelto a specific region the lower Delaware Valley. An RFF researchteam is already engaged in data collection and analysis. Severalgovernment agencies have assisted in this effort, especially theDelaware River Basin Commission, the Delaware Valley RegionalPlanning Commission, and the National Center for Air PollutionControl, by supplying data and components for the overall model.Other local groups in the Delaware Valley have also been helpful.This case study will provide the means for testing hypothesesabout explicit interdependencies among different types of residu-als. It will also provide realistic analyses of a number of policyalternatives and of the problem of presenting useful informationto policy makers and the public. It may in addition provide thekernel of a quantitative model that will have continuing utilityfor the analysis of policy and operations with regard to residualsmanagement in the Delaware Valley.

15

RFF is contributing to the development of a companion casestudy in Sweden. In this connection, Karl-Göran /Adler of theStockholm School of Economics spent some six months of theyear at RFF as a temporary staff member. Part of his activitiesinvolved consulting with the quality of the environment groupand learning about the modeling efforts here. His other activitiesare described below.

ASSO IATED STUDIES

A number of studies are being undertaken to provide data thatwill be useful not only to the regional residuals managementmodel, but also in the analysis of particular problems relating toenvironmental management and policy. These projects includeindustry studies and others dealing with damages fiom residualsdischarge, recycling of residuals, perception of the environment,and environmental management institutions.

'UT's industry studies attempt to identify technologies that areavailable for residuals control and to determine the cost of con-trolling residuals in varying degrees. These studies are innovativeboth in their simultaneous consideration of all residuals streamsthrough using concepts of material and energy balances, and intheir consideration of a wide variety of alternative means of re-ducing residuals. These include changes in the quality of inputs,in industrial processes, and in the types of outputs as well aschanges in residuals treatment after generation. The last has oftenbeen the exclusive focus of previous studies of residuals controlcosts. Blair Bower is giving general direction to these studies andis currently working on two of them pulp and gaper, in whichGeorge Löf and William Hearon, a private consultant, have co-operated; and canning, on which Norman Olson of the NationalCanners Association is working under a 1971 research agreement.Clifford Russell and William Vaughan are conducting studies ofthe petroleum refining and steel industries. In June, Thomas Coch-ran, formerly of the Litton Scientific Support Laboratory at FortOrd, California, joined the RFF staff to study residuals manage-ment in the nuclear energy industry.

During the year RFF made a grant of $10,700 to NorthwesternUniversity where Leslie L. Roos, Jr., assistant professor of politi-cal science, will study the response of industry to environmentalconstraints. Roos will examine a group of industries, using statis-tical methods to test different theories of organizational andinnovative behavior. Results of the study should be helpful inassessing how industry is likely to respond if attempts to protectthe environment lead to governmental constraints on industry

:35 behavior.

as

A grant of $11.500 was made to Carnegie-Mellon University incontinuing support of studies of the effects of air pollution onhuman health, which are being conducted by Lester B. Lave, asso-ciate professor of economics. He will analyze statistical associa-tions between data on mortality and the incidence of disease anddata on air quality and numerous other economic, social, anddemographic variables that may be connected with morbidity andmortality. The analysis is expected to contribute to RFF's set ofstudies dealing with damages resulting from environmental de-terioration.

Several studies of the recycling of residual materials are underway. Focusing on the secondary materials industries, RFF's objec-tive is to identify opportunities for recycling and evaluate theirprospective usefulness when (for example, through various typesof restrictions or effluent taxes) the social costs of disposing ofresidual materials may be felt by industry and consumers. ThomasQuimby is continuing his study of paper recycling, using theWashington, D.C., metropolitan area as a case situation. Duringthe year the International Research and Technology Corporationcompleted a report dealing with the wool-reprocessing industry.The analysis, which has been done under a research agreementwith RFF, will be used by the staff in connection with RFF'sbroader recycling studies.

Under another research agreement, Frank Smith of the Centerfor Environment and Man is preparing a general report on theeconomics and prospects of recycling. It will include a survey ofrecycling industries to determine which ones offer potentials forfurther useful study. At the end of the year Talbot Page, a recentPh.D. from Cornell University, joined the RFF staff to study howspecific incentives affect the reuse of the materials in today'seconomy. In addition to effluent controls and taxes, such influ-ences as depletion allowances, possible freight-rate discrimina-tion, and labeling requirements will be examined.

During the year a grant of $19,500 was made to the Universityof Toronto, under which Ian Burton, professor of geography, willstudy the public response to air pollution control measures inthe United Kingdom. In that country the Clean Air Act of 1956permits local government authorities to take strong action againstair pollution. Burton and his collaborators will attempt to findout why the response to this Act has been so variable from placeto place, and how local reactions are related to public under-standing of the nature of the problem.

When Lyle E. Craine of the University of Michigan completedhis study of water management innovations in England (publishedby RFF in 1969), the River Basin Authorities created under the

36 1963 Water Resources Act had just come into existence, and it

was too soon to assess their actual performance as against theirexpected performance. During the year RFF made a grant of$5,000 to the University of Victoria (British Columbia) for afurther study of these institutions, which have now been function-ing long enough to warrant such an assessment. The researchwill be conducted by Derrick Sewell, professor of economicsand geography.

RESIDUALS MANAGEMENT: THEORETICAL AND POLICY STUDIES

In addition to the development of the overall model and thedetailed microeconornic studies of residuals management de-scribed above, RFF is sponsoring efforts to improve economictheory in a way that will permit it to incorporate environmentalconsiderations in a more realistic and useful manner than it nowdoes. Work is also going forward on some of the broader nationaland international issues related to environmental quality.

During his six-month stay at RFF, Karl-Göran Maier worked ona manuscript in which he seeks to integrate his studies of variousenvironmental issues into economic theory. Maier has developedproofs for a number of propositions flowing from the generalequilibrium approach to environmental problems propounded inEconomics and the Environment: A Materials Balance Approach,by Allen V. Kneese, Robert U. Ayres, and Ralph C. d'Arge, pub-lished by RFF in December 1970. He also has analyzed the dy-namic properties of the equilibrium approach within a systemexperiencing economic change. Other theoretical work is beingcontinued by Ralph d'Arge at the University of California inRiverside under a previous RFF grant to the University. This workis focused on a number of macroeconomic issues, including theeffects of environmental constraints on economic growth and onthe optimum rate at which society's nonrenewable resources maybe used.

D'Arge is working on another project, supported by a grant of$7,000 made during the year to the University of California, inwhich he is attempting to assess the effects of cost increasesinduced by environmental controls on the international tradeposition of various countries. At the outset d'Arge devised aneconometric model to gauge effects of cost increases on balanceof trade and related international income effects. Empirical appli-cations to several countries have already been made. The firstreport on this work, "International Trade, Domestic Income, andEnvironmental Controls" was published during the year in Man-aging the Environment: International Economic Cooperation forPollution Control, edited by Allen Kneese, Sidney Rolfe, and

37 Joseph Harned (Praeger, 1971).

The question of how, if at all, the aggregated measures ofeconomic change, such as the gross national product, should bealtered to reflect environmental degradation and the costs in-curred in its control is of concern to economists and governmentstatisticians. A related question is whether these general measuresshould be supplemented or possibly replaced with a new set ofenvironmental indicators. Over the past year RFF has engagedin considerable work in this area. Orris Herfindahl and AllenKneese have analyzed the range of issues in a prepared presenta-tion at a National Bureau of Economic Research conference inNovember 1971. Further work on this subject is being carriedout by Mancur Olson, under a grant of $21,700 to the Universityof Maryland. Olson, who was an RFF visiting scholar during thesummer, is also preparing a paper for the November NBER con-ference. In order to test certain theoretical propositions, RFFis sponsoring experimental empirical work on the national ac-counts of Norway. Henry Peskin of the Institute for DefenseAnalyses is conducting this study on a consultancy basis in collab-oration with Odd Aukrust of the Central Statistical Office ofNorway.

To explore the possible magnitude of future environmentalproblems and thc ways in which they may be affected by alterna-tive management strategies as well as by population growth andchanges in population characteristics, research into environmentalquality included participation in the construction of a resource-residuals projection model. It is a part of the demographic-environ-mental model described on page 79. In addition, through a re-search agreement made during the year, the International Researchand Technology Corporation is assisting in this effort.

Another area of research concerns the functioning of politicalprocesses and the possibility of improving them so that theybetter reflect the preferences of society on issues of environmentalquality. During the year, basic work on public choice problemswas pursued at RFF by Haefele and at Harvard University byJohn Jackson, assistant professor of government, under an RFFgrant. Jackson is studying the relationship between the supply ofmunicipal services and the electoral strategies of candidates;Haefele's concern is with preference aggregation under variousassumptions about political boundaries. Currently he is workingout a set of political variables for the models that are being con-structed in the regional residuals management project. A reporton some results of his research was published in the June issueof the American Economic Review under the title, "A UtilityTheory of Representative Government."

As a result of environmental research supported by an RFFgrant to the University of New Mexico, The Outlook for Water:

38 Quality, Quantity, and National Growth, by Nathaniel Wollman

39

TE DISCHARGES TO FRESH WATER

I J I100 200 300 100 500 600 700

Biochemical Oxygen Dernahd (1,000 pounds per. day)

The chart above, based on Table 40 in The Outlook for Water byNathaniel Wollman arid Gilbert W. Bonem, brings out two importantaspects of RFF's new study of projected water quality and quantity inthe United States. First is the strong influence of growth in economicactivity and population upon prospects for the future. Alternative as-sumptions of low, medium, or high growth rates for both factors resultin enormous differences in the projections for a given year. Second, isthe steady increase in the generation of wastes that pollute water, re-gardless of which assumption is used. The estimates shown in thechart relate to the BOD load before treatment.

and Gilbert W. Bonem, was published during the year. It providesprojections of regional demand and supply of U.S. water resourcesthrough the year 2020. The authors develop three alternative pro-grams for meeting indicated regional shortages: minimum treat-ment, minimum storage, and minimum cost. They emphasize that"shortage" is a matter of both quality and quantity and that ulti-mately the method of coping with it will reflect social preferences.Will the public be willing to pay the price for the standard ofwater quality it demands? According to their projections, newtechnologies must be found if water of high quality is to be widelyavailable fifty years hence. Even earlier, rapid growth and ademand for increased water quality will drive operating costs

39 upward, especially the cost of waste treatment.

The authors pinpoint some of the vital areas requiring addi-tional research before sound water management policies can bedeveloped. More important, they provide a basis for further ad-vances in the art of projecting supply and demand.

Two other books were sent to press during the program year.Environmental Quality Analysis: Theory and Method in the SocialSciences brings together fourteen papers presented at RFF's con-ference on environmental quality research held in the summer of1970. The collection, edited by Kneese and Bower, is an extensivesampling from the work of the RFF program on the quality of theenvironment over the past few years. Contributors are:

Ralph C. d'Arge "Economic Gro th and the Natural Environ-ment"

Robert U. Ayres "A Materials-Process-Product Model"John V. Krutilla, Charles J. Gicchetti, A. Myrick Freeman III, and

Clifford S. Russell "Observations on the Economics of Irre-placeable Assets"

Clifford S. Russell and Walter 0. Spofford, Jr. "A QuantitativeFramework for Residuals Management Decisions"

Max R. Langharn, Joseph C. Headley, and W. Frank Edwards"Agricultural Pesticides: Productivity and Externalities"

Lester B. Lave "Air Pollution Damage: Some Difficulty in Esti-mating the Value of Abatement"

A. Myrick Freeman III "The Distribution of EnvironmentalQuality"

Edwin T. Haefele "Environmental Quality as a Problem ofSocial Choice"

Joseph L. Sax "Legal Strategies Applicable to EnvironmentalQuality Management Decisions"

Delbert C. Miller "Power Structure Studies and EnvironmentalQuality Management: The Study of Powerful Urban ProblemOriented Leaders in Northeastern Megalopolis"

The book is scheduled for publication early in 1972.The second book, Alternatives to the Internal Combustion

Engine, by Robert U. Ayres and Richard P. McKenna, exploresways in which the internal combustion engine might be modifiedand also investigates such alternatives as steam and electricalpropulsion systems. Publication is expected by mid-1972.

40

Natural Environments

Natural environments have rnany potential uses. They are nature'slaboratory for experiments in bi( igical evolution and ecologicalsuccession; they preserve genetic stocks that would be lost throughthe interference of modern man and that are sources of other ma-terials for scientific research; and they provide sites for a spe-cialized kind of recreation for people who feel the need of con-tact with unspoiled nature. But natural environments can serveother, and incompatible, purposes. These remote areas often areused for mining, logging, grazing, or irrigation farming; often theyare the sites of power dams. These are the most common ways bywhich wilderness and wildlands have been transformed to helpmeet the material requirements of an industrial economy. Suchchanges have greatly reduced the stock of wild rivers and landsin the United States. The Wilderness Act of 1964 and the Wildand Scenic Rivers legislation of 1968 reflect a deep and growingpublic concern that not all of the wild and scenic areas in naturebe irretrievab:y altered in pursuit of material consumptionobjectives.

Much of the research in RFF's natural environments i_rogramis directed toward the issues that arise in choosing among thevarious alternative uses of natural areas; one alternative, ofcourse, is preservation of such areas for uses compatible withtheir continued existence in their natural state. The programconsequently includes not only problems of allocation but alsothose of administering wildlands, wildlife, and scenic resources.During the past year, the first round of research in many of thecomponent parts of the program was ready either in publishedform or for critical discussion.

Drafts of soma of this work were reviewed in August at anatural environments wor';shop at Missoula, Montana, held byRFF in cooperation with L School of Forestry of the Universityof Montana and the Forest Sciences Laboratory Wilderness Re-search Project of the U.S. Forest Service. At the close of the year

41 the papers were being revised by their authors to reflect the out-

42

come of the workshop discussion. Their publication in a singlev3lume is planned.

THE MONTANA WORKSHOP PAPERS

The Incidence of Technological Change

In a theoretical inquiry, V. Kerry Smith has investigated thaconditions under which technological change would affect eitherthe explicit or shadow price behavior of the services providedby natural environments relative to other goods and services.Smith, assistant professor in the Department of QuantitativeAnalysis and Control at Bowling Green State University, cameto RFF as a visiting scholar during the program year. In his paper,"The Incidence of Technological Change Among Different Usesof Environmental Resources," he examines different communitypreferences within the context of a given production scheme, andidentifies several critical parameters.

Smith finds that technological innovation affecting produciblegoods increases the relative prices of environmental services. Heindicates the close relationship between the rate of relative priceappreciation, the availability of substitutes for the services ofnatural environments, the respective marginal contributions of allcommodities to total welfare, and the importance of each indi-vidual commodity or service to the community's overall standardof living. The analysis, made in a general equilibrium framework,provides support for the Cicchetti-Krutilla partial equilibriumapproximation mentioned on page 47. The results point out theconditions under which the rate of price appreciation would bethe same under both partial and general equilibrium models.Accordingly, the study has general implications for the relation-ship between partial and general equilibrium analysis for analyz-ing price behavior in the presence of technological change. Also,the relationships between alternative preference functions andconcomitant community demand patterns are relevant to individ-ual consumer demand theory.

During the year Smith examined the determinants of techno-logical innovation as another procedure for analyzing nonuniformtechnical change. He studied the effect of nonpriced ck:rnmenproperty resources on the path of technical change chosen by thefirm. The results of his model indicate that technological inno-vation will make extensive use of our common property resourcesover time. Furthermore, he concludes that an alteration in thepricing policy, such as an imposition of an effluent charge, doesnot necessarily increase the discounted cost stream for all indus-tries. At year's end he had completed a paper, "The Implicationsof Common Property Resources for Technical Change," for

42 possible publication.

43

Smith's work is supported by RFF grants to his university. Asecond grant of $7,800 was made during the program year.

Wilderness Areas for Quality Recreational Experiences

Not all extractive industrial activities on wildlands are neces-sarily incompatible with all forms of recreational activities. Sim-ilarly, not all forms of recreational activity are compatible witheach other in a given outdoor environment. How many wildernessusers ought to be admitted at any time to a given wilderness area,and what forms of activity are compatible with the objectives ofthe Wilderness Act to provide for environments "untrammelledby man"?

In his paper, "Strategies and Problems in Managing for Wilder-ness Quality," George Stankey of the Wilderness Research Proj-ect, U.S. Forest Service, sorts out many of the issues about whichthere has been much confusion, thus providing better perspectiveson the objectives and problems associated with the use of wilder-ness areas. A wilderness recreation experience differs from othertypes of recreation in kind, rather than quality. It is thereforeinappropriate, he concludes, to consider one form of recreationas representing a higher- or lower-quality recreation experiencethan another.

The problem then is to ascertain the total range of te-,tes withrespect to outdoor recreation in order that wilderness (and otherwildlands) can be managed so as to indulge the whole range ofpreferences in their appropriate settings. In his study, Stankeyidentifies the wilderness users who share the values reflected inthe Wilderness Act, end explores their attitudes toward variouscircumstances and conditions of wilderness uses.

In a complementary research paper, "Some Economic Issues In-volved in Planning Wilderness Recreation," Cicchetti makes useof various simultaneous multiple regression models to analyzethe data gathered by Stankey on four wilderness areas. The pur-pose of this study is to test various hypotheses, which a priorijudgment indicates might explain differences in preferences andtastes among wilderness users. Cicchetti also seeks to determinewhether the scale of wilderness purism developed by Stankeycan be used to predict visitor reaction to various wildernessexperiences.

Optimal Recreation Density for Wilderness Areas

Specifying a management policy for administering a wildernessarea for maximum social benefit is important in every instance.It may be even More important when the issue is whether anatural area that qualifies for inclusion within the National Wilder-ness System under the 1964 Act should be included or he devotad

43 to purposes incompatible with its remaining a wilderness area.

,s4

One way to approach a judgment on adding an area of this kindto the wilderness system is to estimate whether its social benefitwould be greater in one use or in another. To do so, it is importantto know how the total benefit from a wilderness area is affectedby the number of users. At what point does the addition of onemore wilderness user so reduce the enjoyment of all others thatthere is a decline in the aggregate social benefit from the area?If this point of maximum value is determined, it can be comparedwith the corresponding value of the alternative uses precludedby preserving the area in its natural state.

The optimal recreational capacity and its determination wasthe subject of a paper by Anthony Fisher and John Krutilla,"Operational Concepts of Optimal Recreation Capacity for Low-Density Recreation Facilities."

The Wilderness Research Project of the Forest service and theNatural Environments Program at Resources for die Future arecontinuing to cooperate in this work.

Demand for Recreational Uses of Forest Lands

Outdoor recreation has many forms. Not all take place at anational park where some unique natural feature is the primaryobjective of the visit. Nor do all devotees of the out-of-doorsrequire, or even prefer, the fairly austere conditions that theWilderness Act imposes for de jure wilderness areas. On the basisof research performed at Oregon State University, Professors JackEdwards, Kenneth Gibbs, Leo Guedry, and Herbert Stoeveneraddress some methodological issues associated with the derivationof demand functions for the more ordinary recreational uses offorest lands. In their paper, -The Demand for Non-unique Re-source-based Recreation," they present the by now conventionalClawson-Knetsch model, indicating its particular characteristics,conditions under which it would yield the estimates sought, andthe potential difficulties under conditions when the formulationis not necessarily appropriate. An alternative formulation is pro-vided for conditions that differ from those underlying the Claw-son-Knetsch model, and the results of an empirical application ofthe alternative model are reported.

Economic Evaluation of a Fugitive Recreational Resource

The rolling, pothole-pocked agricultural lands of central andsouthern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, together withneighboring parts of Minnesota and the Dakotas provide the pri-mary nesting habitat for North American migratory ducks. Repre-senting only about 10 percent of the continental breeding grounds,these lands produce over half the continental supply of migratoryducks. The ducks, migrating along the Pacific, Central. and Mis-

44 sissippi flyways, provide the source of much of the U,S. recrea-

5

tional waterfowl hunting, viewing, and photographing. The prairiepothole country is thus a principal producer of migratory water-fowl as well as grain.

Although much research attention has been devoted to the effi-

cient allocation of land for agricultural purposes, little has beengiven to the optimal allocation of the wetlands for recreationalservices. Gardner Brown and Judd Hammack address this problemin their paper, "Economic Evaluation of a Fugitive RecreationalResource: Migratory Waterfowl- They begin with a theoreticalmodel that yields an estimate of the marginal value of waterfowlto hunters. They then formulate a model for determining optimallevels of waterfowl breeding populations and nesting ponds, sub-ject to the dynamic constraint of waterfowl population growth asaffected by human predation. Optimal levels in this model arethose that maximize the present value of the difference betweenrecreation hunting benefits (the hunters' consumer surplus), asdeveloped from the imputed demand schedules, and the cost (interms of forgone agricultural opportunities) of the breeding ponds.A preliminary application of this analysis to the question of wet-lands allocation suggests that the observed number of breedersand ponds has been less than optimal in recent years.

Another RFF study involving the conflict between use of wet-lands for resting and nesting habitat for migratory waterfowl, onthe one hand, and drainage for purposes of increasing agriculturalproduction on the other, was published during the year: Compeii-Lion for Wetlands in the Midwest, by Jon Goldstein. A descriptionof the study and the principal conclusions were given in lastyear's annual report.

Classification of Aquatic Environments

The multitude of water bodies in the United States rangingin size from the Great Lakes to minor ponds are subject to analmost endless variety of demands, all the way from use of theirwaste-assimilative capacity to use for recreational and researchpurposes. Some of these uses are compatible, others are conflict-ing, and yet others have irreversible adverse effects on the char-acter of the aquatic environment in question. Andrew Sheldonin his paper, "A Quantitative Approach to the Classification ofInland Waters," concludes that prudent management of theselakes, streams, springs, and swamps, calls for a great deal ofinformation that should be presented in a form digestible by thoseresponsible for making decisions governing the fate of waterbodies.

As a step toward developing such information, Sheldon, anaquatic ecologist at the University of Montana, has investigatedthe classification of aquatic environments in a continuation ofwork begun as a visiting scholar at RFF. His emphasis is basically

4 5 on procedures, because data in the field of comparative limnology

are most meager. Sheldon views his study as a first-generationeffort, undertaken to provide a point of departure for the timewhen availability of test data will permit refinement of classifica-tion techniques and their interpretation, in turn leading to classi-fications relevant to various resource management objectives.

Visual Qualities of the Landscape

Not all qualities of the environment are as yet subject to analy-sis in terms of benefit-cost comparisons. Visual attributes of land-scape are an example. They must be much better understoodbefore their significance for environmental quality can be meas-ured. In his paper, "Aesthetic Dimensions of the Landscape,"Burton Litton of the School of Design, University of California,Berkeley, presents means of viewing, identifying, and describingaesthetic attributes of the backcountry environment. He proposesways in which such awareness can be expressed in more objec-tive terms than formerly as a guide to decisions by resourcemanagers in land management agencies whose actions result inlandscape modifications.

In a companion paper, "Appraising the Objectivity of Land-scape Dimensions," Kenneth Craik of the Department of Psychol-ogy, University of California, Berkeley, evaluates the objectivevalidity of the dimensions developed in Litton's work. Resultsof Craik's analysis suggest the approach developed by Litton maybe widely applicable in situations encountered by resource man-agers who are not professional designers.

ALLOCATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES

The Economics of Environmental Preservation

Charles Cicchetti, Anthony Fisher, and John Krutilla collabo-rated in a basic theoretical and empirical study of the economicsof environmental preservation. Some attributes of the naturalenvironment for example, the grand scenic wonders or thegenetic information of a given species are results of evolution,geomorphology, or ecological succession measurable only in timespans that far exceed the planning horizons of mankind. Man-made decisions that may irreversibly affect the environment entaila vastly greater responsibility than do decisions whose conse-quences can be undone if hindsight shows them to be undesirable.Yet the decision criteria (e.g., conventional benefit-cost analysis)under which such choices are usually made typically involve my-opic bias. Employing the analytics of optimal control theory, thenew study develops basic decision criteria for problems involving

46 choice between incompatible alternatives with irreversible conse-

quences and then applies them to a particular case to test theiroperational and practical value. A paper by the three authors,"The Economics of Environmental Preservation," has been ac-cepted for publication in the American Economic Review.

Optimal Use of Natural Environments

Another aspect of Fisher's continuing work on the theory ofoptimal allocation of environmental resources concerns the choicebetween preservation and development of a natural environmentunder conditions of uncertainty. Uncertainty surrounds even ourbest estimates of the streams of costs and benefits of alternativeuses of environmental resources. Fisher concludes that uncertaintyabout cost and benefits reduces the expected present value ofbenefits from an irreversible development. This suggests, in turn,that even assuming perfect neutrality with respect to risk, less ofa given natural area should be developed than would be optimalif all the costs and benefits were known with certainty. Thatconclusion is strengthened if there is an aversion to risk, coupledwith uncertainty regarding the cost and benefit streams. Theresults of this work were reported in a paper entitled "Uncer-tainty, Information, and the Evaluation of Investments with En-vironmental Effects" given before the North American SummerMeetings of the Econometric Society in Boulder, Colorado.

During the year a grant of slightly more than $29,000 was madeto Brown University, where Fisher is assistant professor of eco-nomics, to support his work from January 1971 through August1972. During most of that period he will be at RFT headquartersas a visiting scholar.

Evaluation of Benefits from Environmental Resources

Shortsighted decisions about resource allocations are frequentlycaused by failure to gauge probable future changes in the relativevalue of alternative outputs from a given set of resources. Ifdemand for the services of an asset increases, the value of theasset itself may change, the nature and extent of the change beingdetermined by the availability and price of services of like qualityfrom other sources. While the supply of unspoiled natural en-vironments cannot be increased but may diminish, and while theirvalue in their pristine state can be expected to increase, their valueas suppliers of industrial materials or other alternative productswill depend on the progress of technology in the production of thegoods or services in question. A simple model playing out the im-plications of these assumed conditions has been developed in astudy by Charles Cicchetti and John Krutilla. Their paper, "Evalu-ating Benefits of Environmental Resources with Special Applica-tion to Scenic Resources," is scheduled for publication in the

47 Natura/ Resources Journal.

4I8

48

Study of Dynamics and Interaction af Wildlife Populations

Resources management generally implies an effort to find theoptimal mix of outputs that can be provided by the combinationof resources under a manager's control. This should be no lesstrue of wildlife management than of resources more generally.A grant of $14,000 was made to Colorado State University to sup-port a study of the ecology of wildlife populations. The work,under the direction of Jack E. Gross, assistant professor of wild-life management, is expected to cover a two-year period. Theresearch seeks to clarify the range of outputs that can be pro-duced from a given wildlife resource, to identify the ecologicalmechanisms that can be manipulated by wildlife managers toproduce the desired outputs, to develop management strategiesthat will be more likely to produce the optimal mix of outputs,and to design procedures for evaluating the application of suchstrategies.

A model that simulates the demographic behavior of a singlespecies under various management practices and habitat modifi-cations has been built and validated. Work is now under way ona simulator that will mimic the demographic behavior of severalwildlife species in competition on the same range with other wild-life or with domestic stock. Data for this purpose are being col-lected from the National Bison Range where seven species (muledeer, whitetail deer, elk, bighorn sheep, pronghorn, Rocky Moun-tain goat, and bison) are found.

The Trans-Alaska Pipeline

While the proposed Trans-Alaska pipeline involves a develop-ment project of major economic importance, there has also beenmuch concern over the environmental risks posed by the project.Charles Cicchetti, utilizing data provided by various industrial,governmental, and academic sources, is seeking to illuminate thevarious economic and environmental issues and to lend perspec-tive to the problem within a decision framework. He has devel-oped a computer model that makes it possible to consider theeffects of various alternatives and thus to evaluate the implica-tions of various assumptions and assertions that have been voicedduring the pipeline controversy.

49

Land and Water

Work concerned with land and water problems continues in anumber of universities with RFF support. At Utah State Univer-sity, research is focusing on the changes that are taking place inmost rural (or, mote precisely, nonmetropolitan) areas; and atKansas State University, U.S. agricultural policy in relation toworld trade is being studied. At Southern Methodist University,the legal implications of weather modification are being examined;and at the Università degli Studi, in Italy, a three-year project todevelop computational and survey procedures for evaluatingflood-control policies was completed. In addition, a case studyof land and water manment in the state of Florida is in prep-aration under RFF sponsorship.

Plans are being made to shape the joint land and water programto reflect the current shift in emphasis toward the study of waterproblems as they relate to natural resource planning in generaland to land use planning in particular. During the past year eightbooks resulting from research done by staff or grantee scholarswere published or brought close to publication. All have beenreferred to in previous annual reports as research progressed, butthey are mentioned briefly below as an indication of the effortthat has gone into these two interrelated fields of resource useand management over the past few years.

SUI3URI AN LAND CONVERSION

Suburban Lund Conversion in the United States: An Economicand Governmental Process, by Marion Clawson, which was pub-lished in September, results from several years of research on dieprocesses by which urban development spreads from the suburbanfringe outward into the countryside.

If there is no change in the operation of the suburban landconversion process, suburbs will continue to spread outward, with

49

a great deal of idle or vacant land intermingled among the de-veloped subdivisions; costs of public services will be high becauseof the spotty growth pattern; the price of undeveloped land mayincrease at a lower rate but will probably remain high; and hous-ing will still be too costly for people in the lower half of theincome range. From his study of the way in which this patternhas developed and the possibilities of change, Clawson believesthat there are ways in which public and private measures of landplanning and zoning can be reinforced to overcome some of theobstructions in the working out of the suburban land market.

A somewhat similar study of urbanization in Great Britain willbe published toward the end of 1972 by Allen and Unwin. Underan REF grant to the Political and Economic Planning organization(PEP), research in England, under way for several years, hasparalleled as far as possible the techniques and general approachesused by REE in the preparation of the U.S. land conversion book.Emphasis in England has been on the London-Liverpool axis, anarea that bears distinct similarities to the northeastern urbancomplex in the United States. The study, Megalopolis Denied:Planning and the Containment of Urban England, 1945-1970, byPeter Hall, with Ray Thomas, Roy Drewett, and Harry Gracey,will be in two volumu_ (I) Urban and Metropolitan Growth Proc-esses, and (II) The Planning System: Objectives, Operations, andImpacts.

The joint projecia are now entering a third phase. Clawson andHall are preparing a manuscript in which they compare the char-acteristics of urban growth in the United States and Great Britainand examine the contributions of government to changing land usein both countries.

OTI-IER STUDIES OF U.S. LAND USE

Professional Forestry

As a science and a profession, forestry has been practiced inthe United States for barely seventy years. In Professional Fores-try in the United States, Henry Clepper, formerly executive secre-tary of the Society of American Foresters, describes the develop-ment of forestry. He traces the contributions of foresters to fed-eral, state, and industrial forestry programs since the first forestryschool, were established shortly after the forest conservationmovement succeeded in obtaining legislation to establish forestreserves to the present. Their contributions have made possiblethe transition from an era of forest exploitation to one of intensivescientific management.

The book was in press at the end of the program year, scheduledfor publication in December. The author's research was supportedby an RFF grant to the Forest History Society.

50

The Nation's Land

In a book designed for college students and general readers,America's Land and Its Uses, Marion Clawson has drawn uponmany years of his own research and that of RFF colleagues topresent a compact nontechnical account of the nation's landits history, present trends, and future possibilities. The three greattraditional uses farming, grazing, and forestry are dealt within turn, followed by sections on the two uses that present thelargest number of new problems urbanization and outdoorrecreation. In press at the end of the program year, the book isscheduled for publication early in 1972.

Agricultural Policies and Programs

A study of U.S. agricultural policies and programs since WorldWar I has been in progress for several years at Michigan StateUniversity. By the end of this program year a manuscript resultingfrom the project was being edited for late 1972 publication underthe title "Overproduction Trap in U.S. Agriculture."

In 1965, total farm output was divided unevenly among the variouscategories of farms. About one-seventh of the largest farms producedwell over half the total output. Nearly a million and a half small com-mercial farms had gross soles of less than $10,000; as net incomes wereonly about one-half that figure, many operators were at about thepoverty line.

51

The prime focus of the study is on resource allocation howmuch labor, capital, and land have been directed to the produc-tion of agricultural commodities, on what basis the resourceallocations were made, and by whom, and what the effect hasbeen on agricultural incomes, on payments to factors of produc-tion, and on agricultural output. Described in quantitative termsare some persistent tendencies to overinvestment of capital (ac-companied at times by some underinvestment), a persistent ten-dency to overallocation of manpower to agriculture, and a con-sequent persistent tendency to a level of output not planned forwhen the resource allocation was initially made.

The results of these allocative arrangements are analyzed inrelation to resource use and efficiency. The study also providesinformation and some new analytical concepts of interest to wel-fare economists, sociologists, and agricultural policy makers.

Glenn L. Johnson, professor of agricultural economics at Michi-gan State, who directed the grant-supplarted project, and LeroyQuance, agricultural economist with the Natural Resources Eco-nomics Division of USDA's Economic Research Service, wrotemuch of the study and edited the whole. Six other scholars con-tributed detailed analyses of particular problems.

Wildlife Management

During the program year RFF made a grant of $17,700 to theUniversity of Montana in partial support of work being conductedon biological, economic, and policy aspects of wildlife manage-ment. Preliminary work on the study was carried out under anearlier grant by Arnold Bo lle, dean of the School of Forestry atthe University, and Richard a Taber, professor of wildlife in theCollege of Forest Resources, University of Washington. They will

re ta on current policies and administrative proce-ii düe i the management of North American wildlife with

other countries.

Land Use and Water Management in Florida

A study of land use and water management policy with respectto environmentally critical areas in Florida has been undertakenby Luther Carter, who is on leave from Science, the journal of theAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science, whileworking at RFF headquarters. Carter will explore the distinctiveecological and hydrological characteristics of the state and someof the ways they have been affected by human incursions. Hisapproach is to present the policy questions by means of selectedcase histories of specific problems, such as the Dade County jet-port and the Big Cypress watershed, the Cross-Florida BargeCanal and the Oklawaha River Basin; and re %Estate development

52 affecting coastal wetlands.-i'

a.

FOREIGN AGRICULTURE

The Mekong Basin

The staff report, Agricultural Development in the Mekong Basin:Goals, Priorities, and Strategies, submitted to the World Bank atthe end of the last program year, was published by RFF for gen-eral distribution in May of 1971. Investigations on how best toharness the flow of the Mekong River for productive, peacefulpurposes have continued under UN auspices despite conflict inthree of the four countries that share the watershed Laos,Cambodia, and South Vietnam; the fourth is Thailand.

The authors of the report assess the demand/supply conditionsfor expanded agriculture in the Lower Basin, specify the measuresthat are needed to achieve favorable conditions for modernizingagriculture, and inquire into the criteria sociological as well asphysical and economic that might best serve to establish asequence of development.

Agriculture in the Middle East

Another RFF study of agricultural potential in less-developedareas of the world was published early in 1971 by the AmericanElsevier Publishing Company. The countries considered are Egypt,Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria. The authors believe thesecountries are physically capable of realizing large increases inagricultural output over the next two or three decades, but thatthese increases are dependent on a number of factors that includethe use of modern farm technology and management. The findingsof the study are backed up for each country with historical dataon crop acreages, yields, and production; livestock numbers andproduction; farm inputs of various kinds; farm output; and soilconditions.

The book, The Agricultural Potential of the Middle East, byMarion Clawson, Hans Landsberg, and Lyle Alexander, is one ofa series of five volumes, "The Middle East: Economic and Politi-cal Problems and Prospects," resulting from a joint Rand Corpo-rationResources for the Future research program supported by aspecial grant from the Ford Foundation.

STUDIES OF WATER USE

Economic Per formance of Public Investments

Be?' lalyses have long been used as planning guidesfor 60i ,39.tt ,i;".nit public investments, partieularly in the waterresoter... but little is known about the accuracy of theestimateb: because few agencies have developed procedures for

53 monitoring the economic performance of projects once they have

54

Source

Reduction of conveyance lossesColorado BasinGreat BasinPacific NorthwestSouth PacificMissouri

Evaporation retardation fromsmall ponds and reservoirs

Estbriacimgpti0.0",-#VPable-per ypqr

= (Million acraLfeet)

locked *A:CCM c8Pe

acre-foot(dolldis

- ° . a e < a - a a

1.50.63.42.01.6

0.5

2-422-422-922-422-42

12-24

Transfers from agriculture:ArizonaColoradoTexas High PlainsCalifornia

12-1.6not known

4.00.8

2815-3281-11918-106

Additional surface developrnent:lWestern GulfCentral Pacific.

Weather modification(Upper Colorado Basin

Wastewater reclamation:Southern California

_

Desalination

Vegetative management andsnow fencing

Phreatophyle and riparianvegetative control

11.021.0

1.9

0.7

unlimited

9.0 2-23

not known butpotentially large

Minimum total availability

Perhaps the most obvious way of increasing the usable supply of freshwater in one river basin is to bring in water from another basin, butthere ore several alternative methods which in a given situation mightcost less. The estimates above are from the recent RFT study, Inter-basin Transfers of Water. Although some of the cost figures are subjectto detailed qualifications and explanations not shown here, they arecareful approximations that can be compared usefully with the authors'blanket estimate of $30 to $108 per acre-foot for some of the interbasintransfer projects that ore now under consimction or are being seriouslyconsidered.

55

55

been undertaken. In The Economic Performance of Public Invest-ment: An Ex Post Evaluation of Water Resource Investments,which was in press at the end of the program year, Robert H.Haveman, professor of economics at the University of Wisconsinat Madison, analyzes the procedures for estimating primary bene-fits and casts by developing a method for appraising the economicperformance of public investments and applying it in a series ofcase studies of public investments in the water resources area.Finding serious discrepancies between projected and realizedcosts and benefits, he suggests that a constant and more substan-tial monitoring and evaluation of completed projects could leadto important improvements in benefit-cost estimating proceduresand to correcting persistent biases in thesc: procedures. Suchassessments might also throw light on the vaguely understoodrelationships between public investments and changes in incomedistribution, regional growth, and environmental quality.

Large-Scale Water Transfers

Physical transfers of water between river basins have long beenput forward as solutions to problems of water quantity and qual-ity, but many questions need to be answered if such transfersare to receive the unbiased and informed evaluation required forsound policy formulation. Some of these questions are exploredin Interbasin Transfers of Water: Economic Issues and Impacts,published in 1971. The authors are Charles W. I 'owe, formerlyhead of the RFF water resources program and nuw professor ofeconomics at the University of Colorado, and K. William Easter,formerly with the U.S. Bureau of the Budget and now consultanton resource economics with the Ford Foundation. What is theeconomic demand for water in the West, the locale of most ofthe large-scale transfer proposals? Are interbasin transfers theleast-cost means of providing additional water? What short-termand long-term impacts are the transfers likely to have on theimporting region and on other regions? Concentrating on agricul-ture, which is the principal user of water in the West, the authorssurvey current knowledge about the direct and indirect benefitsattributable to water and the potential costs of interbasin trans-fers. They also examine alternatives to transfers by such meansas reduced conveyance losses, additional surface development,wastewater reclamation, desalination, vegetative management andphreatophyte control, evaporation retardation, and transfer ofwater from agriculture to other uses.

Drought and Urban Water Supply Planning

Desire to guard against the hazards of drought has been a de-termining factor in the planning and construction oi municipal

water systems throughout most of the United States, particularlyin areas where there is a wide range in precipitation. In Droughtand Water Supply, published during the program year, CliffordRussell of the RFF staff, David Arey of Southern Illinois Univ Lr-sity, Carbondale, and Robert Kates of Clark University, report onexperience in Massachusetts during the drought of the earlysixties and its implications for municipal planning. The authorsuse a demand-supply ratio to measure the relative inackquacy ofa given water system, and develop a model that allows for anoptimal balancing of the cost of additional storage against ex-pected losses from future droughts. The authors' Endings, thoughbased on experience in Massachusetts, are applicable to problemsof water resource planning and natural resource management inother areas,

Future Demand for Water

A study undertaken by RFF for the National Water Commissionwas completed during the year, and a final report, by CharlesHowe, Clifford Russell, Robert Young, and William Vaughan, wassubmitted to the Commission in March. The report consistc ,-)f asummary text followed by three technical studies dealing withurban, industrial, and agricultural demands for water. The surn-mary has since been released by the Commission for public dis-tribution through the National Technical Information Serviceunder the title Summary of Future Water Demands: The impactsof technological change, public policies, and changing marketconditions on the water use patterns of selected sectors of theUnited States economy, 1970-1990. lSee page 1063

Energy and Minerals

Much of the work of RFF's energy and minerals program duringthe year centered upon energy policy making in the United States

an area that is one of the program's two main lines of research.Within the policy field, research and dievelopment on energytechnologies and on environmental problems associated withenergy use have assumed increasing imporLance. Re_sults of astudy on energy policy research needs and or a forum on energyand the enyirorrn-ent held thi--?.ar are reported below. One ofthe books published during the year reports oin several years ofresearch on demestL: petroleum conservation regulations andpractices. Another book, on nalurLl gas regulation, is being editedfor publication next year.

A second main line of research deals with international aspectsof energy and minerals. The results of several years of staff andgrant-supported work jri Middle Eastern oil, world iron ore,foreign investments in the minerals industries, and the worldenergy economy were published or in press during the year. An-other book on the world petroleum market is being preparedfor publication.

Milton F. Searl, recently with the Energy Policy Staff of thePresident's Office of Science arid Technology, joined the staff inJuly. In June, Zuhayr Mikdashi, of the American University ofBeirut, began a stay of approximately a year as a visiting scholar.Jan Zwartendyk, now with the Canadian Department of Energy,Mines and Resources, was a temporary staff member for severalmonths during the spring and summer.

BACK ROUND FOR DOMESTIC POLICY

57

A growing awareness df the environmental problems associatedwith energy production and use has also contributed to renewedpublic concern that the nation is in danger of "running out" ofmineral fuel reserves. As a consequence, strong interest has de-

8

veloped in the prospects for technological research and develop-ment as a means of circumventing or reducing problems of shortsupply. R&D has, in fact, become a focal point in the area ofenergy policy, joining such long-standing policy issues as federaland state regulation of the oil, natural gas, and electricity indus-tries; tax and other incentives to private industries engaged inthe exploration and development of mineral fuel reserves; oilimports; and the disposition and management of federal landsthat are rich in mineral fuel resources.

Energy Research Needs

Recognizing the growing role of energy R&D as an element inoverall energy policy, the National Science Foundation requestedRFF to undertake a study specifying research needs in the energypolicy area, broadly defined. At the end of ti,e program year adraft report had been completed for formal submission to theNSF in October of 1971.

The report identifies a large number of matters on which furtherresearch is essential to gain an improved understanding of thelong-term outlook in the United States, and to devise policies todeal with the situation. Broadly, the subjects covered are: theforces that influence energy consumption, the future of domesticmineral fuel reserves, research and development possibilities inenergy production and use, the environmental impacts of energyproduction and utilization activities, and the public policies thatsignificantly affect energy industry operations.

The detailed suggestions offered in the report are based onexploration of the following major questions:

1) How much flexibility does the United States economy pos-sess with respec t to future growth in total energy consumption?What are the possible rates and patterns of energy growth thatare compatible with alternative rates and patterns of overall eco-nomic growth?

2) How much flexibility can there be with respect to the com-position of total energy consumption in terms of energy forms(i.e., gaseous, liquid, and electric energy)? There is a substantialdegree of substitutability among forms today. How far can sub-stitutability be carried and at what cost?

3) How much flexibility can there be with respect to the par-ticular mineral fuels from which the energy forms are derived?At present all mineral fuels can be converted to electricity. Towhat extent, and at what costs, will improved technology permitconversion of, say, coal and shale to liquid and gaseous forms?

4) To what extent, and at what cost, are the nation's mineralfuel reserves expandable? The resource base for all mineral fuelsis many times greater than the currently known, commercially

58

ESTIMATED U.S. URANIUM RESOURCESOBTAINABLE AT INCREASING PRICES

/ 8

111111I

"Estimated additional"

"Reasonably assured"

U3O1E-4030 0i8 viesY3-. 21 u3oswr111J, 0'

.11_1UiCh 3u308,.,,osu3oan s

oti3,,su301 u308,0.113°86N ihoareo:1.13 mo.L40810; u3o3,76/

.-a-0 1.1jao4t.t-) ..

046Li

. 8 _

$0 077$50r

Price per pound of U3Os$100

A pound of pure nuclear fuel say uranium-235 is, In energy terms,the equivalent of about 3 million pounds of coal. Therefore the cost ofextracting uranium ures from the ground and converting them to theuranium concentrate Ll308 could increase greatly without having amarked effect on the cost of generating useful energy from the uraniumcontained. The closer technology conies to converting all of naturaluranium into nuclear fuel (which depends on successful developmentof advanced converters and, eventually, breeder reactors), the smallerwill be the effect on the cost of the electricity produced'. Even withthe type of light-water reactors now being built, which "burn" essen-tially only the naturally fissionable uranium-235 and on approximatelyequal amount of plutonium produced from uranium-238, the cost ofelectricity on/y increases by about 0.06 mills/kwh per $1/113 increasein Ll,0e, price.

Thus, taking the U.S. Bureou of Mines' prediction of a SIO/lb rise inprice far the year 2000, it appears that the price of nuclear powerfrom light-water reactors would rise by only about 0.6 ruills/kwh. Thetotal cast of electricity from a new nuclear plant is currently estimatedto be about 8.6 mills per kwh. These estimates are taken from thereport on Energy Research Needs described on pages 58 and 60.

60

60

exploitable reserves. The percentage of the resource base that willbe converted into commercial reserves in the future depends onthe state of technology and on the relationship between the priceof the mineral and the cost of obtaining it. How can more belearned about the natural resource endowment and about theamounts of reserves that are likely to become available in thefuture at different prices?

5) How will the (probably) higher costs of obtaining greaterquantities of, say, gaseous and liquid fuels from natural sourcesof crude oil and natural gas compare with the costs at whichthese energy forms can be made available from unconventionalsources such as coal and shale through new technology? Correctdecisions about investment in R&D on new conversion techniquescannot be made in the absence of knowledge of such comparisons.

6) To what extent will research and development in energyproduction and use enlarge the scope of trade-offs at all stagesof the energy flow processes from mineral exploration throughenergy conversion and ultimate use? R&D possibilities need to bestudied not only to make choices among different lines of tech-nological research, but also to understand better the broader rangeof supply and demand options that will become available.

7) What are the probable consequences for human health andecosystems of the various pollutants associated with the flow ofenergy commodities through the= economy. Research is requiredto reduce the area of uncertainty, to know what actions to takein the face of uncertainty, and to shape institutions in such a wayas to reconcile citizen participation with efficiency in decisionmaking and administration.

8) Government policies, those of long standing and those newlyemerging, strongly affect the entire spectrum of activities withinwhich future supply and demand balances will be struck. Thepresumed basis for government policies must be studied, but,more important, their effects, both intended and unintended, mustbe understood because energy shortages, so-called, can be asreadily produced by misguided government intervention as by thefailure of government to act.

Papers on many subjects were assembled. In addition, a back-ground report on research and development in energy conversionand utilization was prepared by the Environmental Laboratory ofthe Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The study, by Hoyt C.Hottel and Jack B. Howard, professors in the Department ofChemical Engineering, provided the main basis for the discussionof these subjects within the report.

Within RFF, the major contributors were Sam H. Schurr, HansH. Landsberg, Joel Darmstadter, and Milton F. Searl. In addition,Frederick Wells and Jan Zwartendyk made important contribu-tions to the study.

1

61

Forum on Energy, Economic Growth, and the Environment

Much of the concern about environmental quality centers di-rectly on the energy industries. Within energy processes thereappears to he no link in the chain from the exploration, de-velopment, and extraction of mineral fuel reserves through to theeventual consumption of energy in homes and the family auto-mobile that is free from damaging effects upon the environment.

In view of the close relationship between growth in energy use,economic growth, and environmental quality, and the need forgreater public understanding of the issues involved, RFF in Aprilheld a public forum at which leading experts in each of the relatedfields presented papers and joined in the ensuing general discus-sion. The program was as follows:

I. On Economic Growth"The sources and benefits of economic growth" Walter W.

Heller, University of Minnesota"The environmental costs of economic growth" Barry Com-

moner, Washington University

II. On Energy Growth and the Environment"Possible impacts of environmental standards on electric

power availability and costs" Philip Sporn, retired Presi-dent, American Electric Power Company, Inc.; consultant

"Possible impacts of environmental standards on petroleumavailability and costs" Richard J. Gonzalez, petroleumeconomics consultant

"Possible impacts of energy growth on land, water, and theurban environment" Gordon J. MacDonald, member,Council on Environmental Quality

On Problems of Public Policy"The problem of reconciling conflicting policy goals"

Edward S. Mason, Harvard University"Possibilities for reconciling goals by way of new technology"

Glenn T. Seaborg, chairman, U.S. Atomic Energy Com-mission

"New goals for ociety?" Kenneth E. Boulding, University ofColorado

Along with a background paper by Joel Darmstadter of theRFF staff, these research papers are now being prepared forpublication as an RFF book.

Regulation of Natural Gas

Papers presented at an RFF seminar on the regulation of thenatural gasproducing industry, held in October 1970, are being

62

edited for publication. The seminar was undertaken at the requestof the Energy Policy Staff of the Office of Science and Technologyof the Executive Office of the President. The subject itself hadbeen identified as urgently needing study in a 1968 RFF staffreport, U.S. Energy Policies: An Agenda for Research, which hadbeen prepared in response to an earlier request from the Officeof Science and Technology.

The book will contain ten papers dealing with the role ofnatural gas in future national energy patterns, interfuel relations,projected costs of alternative sources of gas, producer regulationfrom several viewpoints, structure of the industry, and the effectsof price regulation on supply.

Keith C. Brown, associate professor of economics at the Kran-nert Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Purdue Uni-versity, who was in charge of organizing the seminar, has writtenan introduction to the collected papers.

Petroleum Conservation RegulationStephen L, McDonald's book, Petroleum Conservation in the

United States, was published in August 1971. The author gives acomprehensive explanation of the systeni by which differing stateregulations govern specific stages in drilling and oil well operation,production controls, and well spacing. He surveys the regulatoryapproaches in all the significant oil-producing states and developsan economic framework for analyzing the system with a view tointerpreting, evaluating, and proposing changes. The substitutionof universal unitized operations for all restraining regulationssave those designed to prevent external damages would, hebelieves, provide profit-motivated private enterprise, operatingthrough the price system, with a better means of conserving oiland gas than does the present system.

The study was supported by an RFF grant to the University ofTexas at Austin, where McDonald is professor of economics.

Structure of Selected Mineral IndustriesUnderstanding the structure of mineral industries is an essential

element in providing an improved basis for many policy decisions.An RFF staff study begun this year is concerned with the distri-bution among firms of iron ore, copper, lead, and zinc mine pro-duction. The analysis of output distribution is being prepared fortwo widely separated years, 1968 and 1948/49, in order to givesome indication of change over a substantial period of time. Anattempt will be made to include all countries where output poli-cies of mining firms are not subject to centralized governmentalcontrol. The research is being conducted by Orris Herfindahl withthe statistical assistance of Elizabeth Vogely.

3

INTERNATIL AL ASPECTS OF ENERGY AND MINERA LS

ernational Energy Studies

Middle Eastern Oil and the Western World: Prospects andProblems, by Sam H. Schurr, Paul T. Homan, and others, was pub-lished by American Elsevier Publishing Company in May 1971.This book is one of two books based on RFF research that haveresulted from a joint RFF-Rand Corporation program speciallyfinanced by the Ford Foundation.

The Middle Eastern Oil study and a study of the world petro-leum market by M. A. Adelman (being prepared for publication)lay the groundwork for a better understanding of the complexset of factors involved in the political economy of internationaloil. The Adelman study was supported by RFF grants to the Mas-sachusetts Institute of Technology, where the author is professorof economics. He gives a comprehensive treatment of the basiceconomic forces at work in the world oil industry within whichthe intricate three-cornered relationship among producer coun-tries, international companies, and importing countries musteventually be resolved. The Schurr-Homan study deals withcompany-government relationships but reaches also into thetroublesome problem of supply interruptions and the difficultiesand policy problems they pose for both exporting and importingcountries. The issues dealt with in the two studies surfaced duringthe past year when tax and price negotiations took place betweelexporting countries and the international oil companies, and thethreat of an embargo on oil shipments accompanied the negotia-tions. These events did not write a finish to the problems. Nego-tiations on prices and taxes can be expected to resume theirstormy course in the years ahead, and additional questionscentering on the determined effort of producing governments toobtain ownership participation in existing concessions will jointhe list of disputed issues.

Energy in the World Economy, by Joel Darmstadter, with PerryD. Teitelbaum and Iaroslav G. Polach, will be off the press by theend of 1971. A number of years of staff effort in assembling, orga-nizing, and interpreting basic data have resulted in this compre-hensive volume on long-term trends in energy consumption, pro-duction, and foreign trade since the 1920s. A central concern ofthe study is to show how during this period the world's fuel baseshifted away from coal and toward oil and natural gas. Thischange, which occurred at different times and rates in the majorgeographic regions, is important for two reasons: it reflected, aswell as facilitated, significant changes taking place in the world'sindustrial life and in economic activity in general; and it gaverise to wholly new patterns of regional economic interdepen-dence. This interdependence is seen most sharply in the strong

64

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65

reliance of industrial countries such as Japan and those in West-ern Europe on petroleum imported largely from less-developedregions such as the Middle East and North Africa.

In reviewing these developments, the book first presents stalls:tical series depicting movements in consumption, production, andinternational trade of energy commodities since 1925 by countries,regions, and the world as a whole. The voluminous statisticalmaterials are condensed to bring into focus the main features ofthe movements. The book relates these main features to othereconomic variables and, in so doing, provides a springboard forevaluating future prospects.

International Mineral Studies

Two books that trace recent developments in the world's min-eral industries were published during the year. Foreign Investmentin the Petroleum and Mineral Industries, by Raymond F. Mikeselland associates, presents twelve case studies of situations whereforeign ownership of mineral resources is subject to changingpolitical and economic climate. The studies, ten of which dealwith Latin American countries and two with Middle Easterncountries, are introduced by chapters outlining the general issuesinvolved. A concluding chapter suggests that as time goes onforeign investors are likely more and more to act as sellers oftheir special services at competitive market prices rather than asowners free to maximize returns to the parent companies.

The Changing World Market for Iron Ore, 1950-1980: An Eco-nomic Geography by Gerald Manners deals with the sweepingchanges in the spatial market for iron ore and steel that havetaken place over the past twenty years, and assesses their impli-cations for the future of the world iron ore industry. Since 1950,iron and steel production in the Soviet Union has slowly ap-proached the U.S. production level, and Soviet ore production isnow considerably larger than U.S. output. Japan has become thethird largest center of iron ore demand, and Australia recentlyhas become one of japan's major suppliers. Manners estimatesthat by 1980 the market will have grown fivefold over the 1950level. A supplement to this book, dealing on a country-by-countrybasis with the spatial distribution of the iron and steel and theiron ore industries between 1950 and 1965, is available in Xeroxmanuscript form under the title The Changing World Market forIron Ore: A Descriptive Supplement Covering the Years 19501965. (See page 94.]

Both books result from research supported by RFF grants: theformer to the University of Oregon, where Mikesell is W. E. Minerprofessor of economics, and the latter, including the supplement,to the University College of Swansea. Manners is now Reader inGeography at University College London, University of London.

6

66

Problems of Mineral Exporting Countries

Zuhayr Mikdashi, professor of business administration at theAmerican University of Beirut, and author of several studies oninternational oil, is undertaking a study of the problems of mineralexporting countries.

The management of mineral resources in such countries hasmany dimensions. Mikdashi is confining his attention to thoseaspects that figure importantly in international trade in bauxite,copper, iron ore, petroleum, and tin. He proposes to examinevarious forms of intervention that governments and enterprisesof mineral exporting countries have exercised or could exerciseacting individually or in groups to take advantage of world-market opportunities.

Mikdashi has received a research grant from the Ford Founda-tion through its office in Beirut. RFF is providing him office spaceand secretarial and other ancillary assistance.

67

Regional and Urban Studies

REF's program of regional and urban studies is organized aroundproblem clusters concerned with (1) the relationships among cities

a focal point in the current movement toward a national urbangrowth policy; (2) the internal organization of cities, especiallythose problems that are associated with density; (3) the manage-ment of large urban complexes and the reform of the governmentalstructure of metropolitan regions; and (4) the rapid rates andconcentrated forms of urbanization being experienced in develop-ing countries.

In the 1970-71 program year progress was made in several proj-ects begun a year or more ago. Some were completed. Others, oflonger term, will not yield results until at least 1973, when it isexpected that we shall be able to draw together and integrate thecontributions these projects will have made to an understandingof the processes of urbanizajen.

NATIONAL URBAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

A signal event of the program year was a conference conductedjointly by RFF and the University of Glasgow that brought to-gether British and American economists whose concern is withpolicy and analysis deriving from both countries' experience withurban and regional development. The fact that the British havebeen experimenting with strong urban and regional developmentpolicies for well over a generation provided the conference witha broad, empirical base for the discussion of national urbaniza-tion policy a matter that has become a recurring theme on theAmerican political scene in the last two years. At the same time,the recent rapid advancement of urban economics as a subdisci-pline in the United States contributed an important element oftheory, methodology, and insight to the five-day discussions.

The Conference on Economic Research Relevant to NationalUrban Development Strategies, held in Glasgow from August 30to September 3, was organized and managed by Lowdon Wingo

67 of RFF and Gordon Cameron of the University of Glasgow's

Department of Social and Economic Research. It was financed byResources for the Future, the Ford Foundation, the University ofGlasgow, and by the contributions toward travel costs of severalprivate organizations.

The conference met in the six sessions listed below. Each wasorganized around a special topic, which was discussed by aBritish and an American moderator.

Welfare Implications of National Settlement PatternsChairman: Harvey S. PerloffModerators: I. C. R. Byatt, Department of the Environment;

Edgar M. Hoover, University of PittsburghWelfare Implications of Internal Organization of MetropolitanRegions

Chairman: Sir Robert GreiveModerators: J. M. W. Stewart, University of Kent; Ira C.

Lowry, The Rand CorporationPublic Finance Issues of National Settlement Patterns

Chairman: Harold HochmanModerators: Alan Williams, Centre for Administrative S udies;

Dick Netzer, New York UniversityNational Economic Development and thc National Syste of Cities

Chairman: S. C. OrrModerators: T. Wilson, University of Gla,:gow; Michael F.

Brewer, Resources for the FutureNational Objectives and the National System of Cities

Chairman: Sam RosenblattModerators: R. Pahl, University of Kent; Anthony Pascal, The

Rand CorporationThe Organization of Government to Implement Urban Develop-ment Strategies

Chairman; S. G. ChecklandModerators: Peter Hagger, Department of the Environment;

Francis D. Fisher, consultant to U.S. Departmentof Housing and Urban Development

Organizational and terminal meetings were chaired by ProfessorL. Hunter of the University of Glasgow and Joseph L. Fisher ofRFF; and a special meeting was held to discuss a paper, by MarionClawson of RFF and Peter Hall of the University of Reading, onurban expansion in the United States and Great Britain.

Of the eighteen papers that provided the background for con-ference discussion, six were products of work done or supportedby RFF. Institutions responsible for other papers were the Centrefor Environmental Studies in London, the Urban Institute, theNational Planning Association, and the Department of Social andEconomic Research of the University of Glasgow. The papers are

68 listed on the next page.

63

James Douglas McCallum A review history of British regionalpolicy

Lowdon Wingo Notes on a national urban development strategyfor the United States: Politics and analytics

Wilbur Thompson The national system of cities as an object ofpublic policy

H. W. Richardson Optimality in city size, systems of cities, andurban policy: A sceptic's view

Joel Bergsman, Peter Greenston, and Robert He ly The agglom-eration process in urban growth

Edwin S. Mills Welfare aspects of national policy toward citysizes

Alan W. Evans The pure theory of city size in an industrialeconom y

Gordon G. Cameron Economic analysis of a declining urbaneconomy

Bruce D. Phillips and Wilfred Lewis Test of small area popu-lation forecasting system: A 3uide to understanding the deter-minants of migration

Benjamin Chinitz The pattern of urbanization within regionsof the U.S.

Christopher Foster Public finance aspects ot national settlementpatterns

Gavin McCro e Location of econoi ic activity in the UnitedKingdom

Irving Hoch Income and city s zeP. A. Stone The economics of the form and organization of the

cityJerome Rothenberg Abstract: A model of intra-metropolitan

location and growthDavid Eversley Diseconomies of urban scale or wrong admin-

istrative framework?David Donnison Uzban objectivesRichard P. Burton On the relevance of governmental reorganiza-

tion to national urban growth policy

The papers will be published in two special issues of the inter-national journal Urban Studies. Meanwhile Wingo and Cameronare preparing an appraisal of the status and problems of nationalurban development strategies, based on the conference discussions.

Four of the papers drawing on current REF-sponsored researchare described below.

Determinants of City Sizes in a National System

The paper by Alan W. Evans was based on research undertakenlast year under REF grants to the University of Glasgow. Evansis seeking to identify the extent to which the frequency of city

69 sizes in a national system is rigorously determined by character-

70

istics of the national ec nomy and, if this indeed is so, to findout what main variables are involved. Scholars concerned withurbaniz:,tion have characterized national urban systems in termsof hierarchies of functions and in terms of a size distributiondescribed by the so-called rank-size rule. This rule posits thatthe approximate size of any city in an urban system is some func-tion of its rank and the size of the largest city in the system.

Such constructs are useful as descriptive devices, but they dolittle to explain key relationships in the urbanization process.Evans's paper proposes an analytical approach based on thestructure of costs in urban areas of various sizes and on anapplication of the theory of clubs or coalitions. Cities grow bythe accretion of firms making optimal location decisions amongcities in a system, where their expected returns vary with citysize, but each firm's choice tends to make its destination citylarger. This, in turn, results in a situation where some firms, find-ing the new city size too large, seek out smaller cities where

SMSA populationas percent of U.S.population

Demographic data since 1940 show a remarkably steady rcte of growthin the proportion of people living in the 212 Standard MetropolitanStatistical Areas (SMSAs) of the United States, although the generalrate of increase in urban population has been decelerating since theperiod of rapid industrialization which reached its peak around 1930.The SMSA, a census category, consists usually of one central city witha population of 30,000 and of surrounding counties that ere metropoli-tan in character. It is one of the basic measures used by Mills in his-

70 Studies in the Structure of !ne Urban Economy, mentioned on page 72.

71

their operations are more profitable. Meanwhile other firms, withgreater economies of scale, are able to thrive upon the opportuni-ties offered by the new city size. With technology and size ofthe nation given, a specific population of firms will form and re-form coalitions until an optimal distribution results, and this willbe shown in a unique rank-size distribution. Thus, a key relation-ship in the urbanization process is the locational choice of firmsamong cities based on maximized returns.

Regional Patt rns of Urban Structure in the United States

The paper written by Benjamin Chinitz is, in effect, an interimreport on RFF-supported research begun at Brown University in1970. Its chief objective is to determine if the development of aregion in the United States can be related to the patterns ofurbanization exhibited at various stages in regional development.From his first look at the data from the censuses -luring theperiod 1900-1960, Chinitz has tentatively concluded that differ-ences in regional levels of urbanization are associated with differ-ences in economic structure. The relationships are frequentlylagged over considerable periods; indeed, tha relationship betweenthe share of the labor force in agriculture and the share of therural population in total population reflects a lag of some thirtyyears. There is reason to believe, he suggests, that not enoughpeople live in cities, given the size of the agricultural labor forceand the size of rural populations in all regions a finding that isinconsistent with the strong political movement for populationdistribution and with public policies hospitable toward the na-tion's rural areas.

Urban Externalities and City Size and Structure

Edwin S. Mills's research, which is supported by a 1970 RFFgrant to Princeton University, was barely under way at the timeof the Glasgow conference. Nevertheless, his papu reflected sometentative conclusions about the interrelationship between urbanorganization and such negative externalities as congestion, pollu-tion, and environmental degradation generally, and the highercostB of rendering public services. Mills suggests that such ex-ternalities may have little direct effect on the size of cities; theirmajor impact would appear to be on the way in which nitieeorganize themselves internally. If this is the case, excessive po-litical concern with altering the size of cities may be misguided,for the real social gains may lie in the improvement of incentivesystems that allocate the costs of these externalities to those whogenerate them. Mills's project has another year to run and willinvolve extensive empirical analysis to enrich theoretical specu-lation about the impacts on the structure of the city of compensa-

71 tory charges for the production of externalities.

Mills's previous research, dealing with characteristics of U.S.urban systems, has resulted in Studies in the Structure of theUrban Economy, to be published for RFF in the spring of 1972.In exploring the ways that private markets determine urbanstructure in the U.S. economic setting, Mills focuses an aspects ofurban area decentralization, which has been in progress for manydecades. He first surveys the broad outlines of urban growth andstructure in the United States and examines the pAttem of landuse intensity for residential and employment purposes. Later, Mi!lsuses several theoretical models to analyze both po3itive andnormative aspects of market performance, to study the relation-ships between residential location and commuting, and to presentan idealized system that fulfills the conditions of economic effi-ciency. Comparison between the models suggests what effects apolicy of efficient investment and pricing in urban transportationmight have on the pattern of urban residential density.

Income, City Size, and Urban Space Use

Irving Hoch's paper reported on his current research at RFF todo with the relation of income and amenity to urban size, density,and form. Hoch notes evidence that in ali four major censusregions wage rates for a homogeneous population increase withcity size; that the cost-of-living increases with city size as well,but that a substantial differential in per capita income remainsafter adjustment for cost-of-living differences. He believes thatthis differential may reflect declining net amenity with city sizeand density. This often involves important externalities pollu-tion, congestion, crime, and other social problems but he indi-cates that caution is needed in interpretation; crime, for example,is associated with city size, but the city size effect in turn reflectsdemographic factors, particularly of race and age composition.

Hoch's study of income and city size is closely tied to hiscontinuing research into the economics of urban space use. Pollu-tion, congestion, and crime affect the way people and propertyvalues are distributed within cities as well as between cities.

Hoch's research is being extended in a report, "Urban Size,Density, Form, and Environmental Quality," which is part of thestudy RFF is making for the President's Commission on Popula-tion Growth and the American Future. Air pollution, water pollu-tion, noise, and solid waste disposal are being examined for theirrelation to city size, density, and form; other environmental im-pacts of city size climate and hydrologicrd effects are alsoconsidered.

The Changing Structure of the U.S. Urban Hierarchy

A statistical study initiated a few years ago by Edgar S. Dunn72 seeks to identify and analyze developmental changes taking place

in the urban structure of the United States. This work, comple-tion of which was deferred until the release of 1970 censusmaterials, is now being resumed. The additional material willallow the project to extend by a decade the transformations sub-ject to study, and will provide a better test of the persistence ofsome of the regularities observed. Data for counties, nodal eco,.nomic regions, and metropolitan areas will all be processed in aneffort to sift out significant patterns of change. The by now famil-iar shift-share analytical technique will be given some novelapplications and other forms of transformation matrixes will beemployed. One such application attempts to assay the importanceof the relationship over time between the structure of centralplace activities and changes in urban size. The object will be toidentify, if possible, developmental paths characteristic of differ-ent kinds of urban regions and different stages of urban develop-ment. This study will inquire whether the historical record willsupport any generalizations about the developmental options ofurban regions.

The Concept of the Urban System

Dunn is also at work on a study in which he attempts to clarifythe concept of the "urban system." This, he believes, will help tointegrate existing areas of urban research and to identify areasthat need more attention. First, he will examine the urban systemas a network of the patterns developed in functional and geo-graphic space by the transfers of goods, people, and informationbetween households, enterprises, governments, and other socialsystems. These networks can be further subdivided into flow net-works and boundary networks. A paper, "A Flow Network Imageof Urban Structure," published in Urban Studies in October 1970,is an early product of this part of the research. At a later stage,Punn, viewing the urban system as a control system, will specifyb ways in which, as such, it differs from conventional imagesof control systems. Here, research will be focused chiefly on thedegree to which information processing identifies and shapes the4..emponent systems of the urban complex and the extent to whichinformation processes for regulating the externalities becomepublic responsibility.

TIIE GOVERNANCE OF METROPOLITAN REGIONS

In 1970 RFF sponsored a Commission on the Governance ofMetropolitan Regions, which is concerned not only with the ap-paratus and process of government, but also with the total inter-action of people in their public capacities and interests and be-

73 tween people and the public institutions. Charles M. Haar of the

Harvard Law School, and an RFF Associate, assisted in settingup the Commission and serves as its chairman. Several meetingshave been held and a number of papers commissioned. Ten ofthem will be published early in 1972 in three small volumes asthe first items of a series on "The Governance of MetropolitanRegions." At year's end several other papers were being revisedfor later publication as one or two further volumes in the series.

A second phase of the Commission's work will concentrate01 on the relationships between major metropolitan problems andthe organization of government, and (2) on ways and means ofinterpreting and disseminating to the public and to policy makersalike the findings of research that may assist in the reform ofgovernmental institutions in U.S. metropolitan areas.

The titles and contents of the three books that are being pre-pared for publication are listed below.

Reform of Metropolitan Governance: Expectation and Realities1. Steven P. Erie, John J. Kir lin, and Francine Rabinowitz

"Can something be done? Propositions on the perform-ance of metropolitan institutions"

2. Lance Liebman "Metropolitanism and decentralization"3. Charles M. Haar "A federal role in metropolitanism"

Minority Perspectives1. Dale Rogers Marshall "Metropolitan government: Views

of minorities"2. Bernard J. Frieden "Blacks in suburbia: The myth of bet-

ter opportunities"3. Daniel W. Fessler "Litigation and the dynamics of un-

anticipated change"Metropolitanization and Public Services

1. John G. Wofford "Transportation and metropolitan gov-ernance"

2. David L. Kirp and David K. Cohen "Education and metro-politanism"

3. Leonard J. Duhl = "A new look at the health issue"4. Edwin T. Haefele and Allen V. Kneese "Residuals man-

agement and metropolitan governance"

MECHANISMS OF SOCIAL CONTROL

Information as a Resource

Edgar S. Dunn has been identified for some time with issuesrelated to the development of information systems. He was en-gaged in this activity while an official in the U.S. Department ofCommerce. After joining RFF he served as a consultant to theBureau of the Budget in an evaluation of proposals for the estab-lishment of a national data bank. He has written several papers

74 devoted to this topic and served on the advisory board of the

National Academy of Science's study of computer data banks. Thisyear he is preparing a study in which he will describe and evalu-ate various strands of the statistical reform movements and theirrelationship to the controversial issue of personal privacy. Indoing so he will focus upon the design issues that are implicitin stati-dtical reform. He will also examine the roles that informa-tion plays in complex social systems, emphasizing their characteras the fundamentaa resource of the social process.

Economic and Social Development

Last winter Dunn's Economic and Social Development: A Proc-ess of Social Learning was published as an RFF book. Dunn com-pares the evolution of social learning with its antecedent learningprocess, biological evolution. Many of the same characteristicsare shown to be common to both, but the great difference is thatsocial learning is capable of generating individual end groupbehavior that can itself purposively change behavior. Some as-pects of social learning have become formalized and codified inclassical science; consequently, social learning has been appliedmore efficiently in the realm of physical science and the designof physical systems than in the realm of social organization andchange. Dunn maintains that in the realm of social systems therules of classical science are not adequate to specify the essen-tial learning process and need to be supplemented by a moregeneralized process characterized as evolutionary experimentation.

URBANIZATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

For more than a year RFF has cooperated with the Economics ofUrbanization Division of the World Bank to develop a joint pro-gram of research on the policy problems of urbanization in devel-oping countries. Some phases of this effort were substantiallyadvanced during the summer when Richard M. Westebbe, aneconomist with the Bank, took three months' leave to join withLowdon Wingo in a study of urban management problems in suchcountries, and especially of appropriate ways in which interna-tional lending agencies can help countries cope with rapid urban-ization. The study draws heavily on documentation gathered byearlier Bank missions in several developing countries. This andother relevant data have been made available to RFF from theBank's research files.

75

Appraisals and Special Projects

Several projects conducted or sponsored by Resources for theFuture are administered separately from the major categories ofresearch dealt with elsewhere in this report. Some are an out-growth of RFF's eight-year-old appraisal of resource adequacy inthe United States. They deal with situations where sufficiency ofresource supply may be in question or where technology hasopened up new possib:!ities in the use of a resource. Other proj-ects relate to RFF's new population-environment studies and toour continuing studies of marine resoumes. A few are extensionsot RFF's educational function an integral part of each of itsresearch programs.

URCE APPRAISALS

Since publication of RFF's Resources in America's Future in 1963no one has attempted an equally comprehensive appraisal ofoverall resource adequacy in the United States, although therehave been several studies of individual sectors of the economy.Early in the program year RFF embarked upon a limited updatingof its original broad study, with 1970 replacing 1960 as the baseyear. A research agreement was entered into with Economic As-sociates, Inc., whose president, Leonard L. Fischman, collaboratedwith Hans Landsberg and Joseph Fisher in the 1963 study. Draftmaterial on which an abridged, revised version could be basedwas received in August. Landsberg is now reviewing this workand cooperating in its use as a contributing element in the popu-lation-environment study described below under "Special Projects."

Preparation of the new material involved much more than amechanical updating and organization of the material for com-puter operation. Since some of the statistical series used in theoriginal study were discontinued or underwent major changes inthe sixties, substitute series had to be developed and linked tothe past. The abridged version could not retain all of the detailed

76 statistical breakdowns that characterized the 1963 study, and some

77

series had to be eliminated. Before setting up the new projectfor computer operation, the technical coefficients were checkedby reexamining the relationships between different time seriesbetween the number of persons over twenty years of age and thestock of passenger automobiles, for example, or between alumi-num tonnage produced and electricity consumed in producing it.With the computerized programming of such data and their rela-tionship, it should be easier in the future to introduce specificrevisions or to hypothesize changes in crucial items and tracethe results. Analyses will be made of the principal findings, in-cluding projections to 2000, and a comparison of the differencesbetween "1970 as projected in 1960" and "1970 actually."

Changing Technology in Iron and Steel

In September 1971, Bela Gold, William S. Peirce, and GerhardRosegger, professors in the Department of Economics at CaseWestern Reserve University, submitted a draft manuscript report-ing on their grant-supported study of technological change in ironand steel manufacturing since 1900. In tracing the changes thathave taken place and analyzing their effects on both physicaland economic performance in coal and iron mining, coke and ironproduction, and primary steelmaking, the authors have produceda report that is not only of interest in its own right but one thatshould contribute to the further refinement of several aspects ofthe resource projection work discussed above.

The Economics of Materials Substitution

A staff study has been begun on the economics of materialssubstitution in the context of different availability horizons, phys-ical properties, and applications. This will draw on the preliminarywork done by joel Darmstadter in cooperation with Harold Goellerof Oak Ridge National Laboratories. Frederick J. Wells, who re-cently joined the REF staff, will spend most of hiE, time on thisproj ect.

The Radio Spectrum

The radio spectrum that portion of the electro-magneticwaves by which information is transmitted through the airpresents mounting problems of allocation as use increases andcongestion, or interference, becomes more severe. In The InvisibleResource: Use and Regulation of the Radio Spectrum, HarveyT. Levin, Augustus B. Weller professor of economics at HofstraUniversity, analyzes the economic characteristics of the radiospectrum, which is a resource of great economic and social value

77 but in whose allocation market considerations play almost no part.

The rate of growth in authorized radio stations is one indication of themounting problems in allocating use of the radio spectrumthe subjectof The Invisible Resource mentioned on page 77. The chart shows thevigorous growth between 1935 and 1947 of such services as marine,aviation, public safety, industrial, and broadcastinga result of war-time breakthroughs and pent-up demand and the later swift growth

78 of common carrier, land transport, and citizen serviceg,

Engineers and technologists normally prevail in the basic alloca-tional field, and lawyers and public administrators have longdominated the licensing and regulation of public and private usersof the spectrum. Levin describes and evaluates the goals, policies,and performance of the American system of interacting spectrumusers, managers, and developers; discusses procedures and insti-tutions that might be feasible alternatives to the present regulatorymachinery; and suggests that the most practicable course in thiscountry may lie somewhere between the present system and afull-fiedged market for the spectrum.

Levin's research was supported by an RFF grant to HofstraUniversity.

SPECIAL PROJECTS

Population Studies

During the program year an investigation of future relationshipsbetween population growth, economic growth, and the environ-ment was initiated at RFF at the request of the President's Com-mission on Population Growth and the American Future. Theoverall goals of the project are to (1) forecast the dimensions andnature of the resource and environmental problems that the na-tion is likely to face in the year 2000; (2) determine the extent towhich changes in population, patterns of consumption, and tech-nology respectively contribute to these problems; and (3) suggestways of handling the major problems. Ronald Ridker is directingthe project.

The general approach is to develop several sets of plausibleassumptions about the future, the principal variants being popu-lation growth and geographic distribution, standard of living, andtechnological possibilities. The assumptions are being examinedin two ways: first, by constructing a comprehensive model, whichpermits the speedy simulation of a wide variety of alternatives;and, second, by conducting a series of special studies to investi.gate key sectors and issues in greater depth. Studies of recreationneeds, energy supplies and demands, the ielationship betweenpopulation density and urban problems, and resource adequacyand substitutability have been undertaken at RFF by CharlesCiechetti, joel Darmstadter, Irving Hoch, and Hans Landsberg;and reports on the role of agriculture, the economics of recycling,and on ecological implications are being prepared under researchagreements with the Agricultural Research Service of the U.S.Department of Agriculture, The Center for the Environment andMan (where Frank Smith is the principal researcher), and FredSmith of the Harvard School of Design. Information yielded bythe analytical work on residuals management being done underRFF's quality of the environment program further contributes to

70 the project.

80

80

Consumption coefficients and projections for public expendi-tures used in the model were developed by Ridker and HenryHerzog. Other work on the model is being done under researchagreements with the International Research and TechnologyCorporation and Economic Associates, Inc. (see appraisals pro-gram). An interim report was submitted to the President's Com-mission in May, and a final report is scheduled for January of 1972.

In order to contribute to and learn from the research beingdone by others concerned with demographic-environmental prob-lems, RFF jointly with the Population Council arkanged for aseries of one-day seminars to discuss problems and findings hiareas of research that are of mutual interest. The seminars beganin May and were scheduled to conclude in January.

"To Live on Earth"

The sudden rise of public concern over man's relationship tohis environment is one of the most striking phenomena of recentyears. Although emotions run high and opinion strong, many ofthe basic facts are in dispute or still unexplored. When is it pru-dent to act on partial evidence, and when to wait? Can currentlevels of popular interest be maintained if some of the prospectsturn out to be gray instead of black and white? Is it necessaryto make a flat choice between environmental quality and eco-nomic growth, which less than a decade ago was looked upon asthe answer to many of the nation's and the world's ills?

An RFT study that seeks to put the many-sided problem of theenvironment in perspective was completed during the programyear: To Live On Earth, by Sterling Brubaker. Avoiding technicallanguage, the study is designed primarily for students and generalreaders. It draws heavily upon recent research by RFF staff mem-bers and grantees and, in some specialized fields, upon or tsidesources.

In addition to giving the background of the principal forces atwork notably population, economic activity, and technology,and the burdens they impose upon water, land, and air thestudy classifies environmental threats according to their gravity,ranging from aesthetic nuisance to genetic damage and hazard forthe earth's whole life-support system. It also surveys the pros-pects for dealing with environmental problems in the next fewdecades and over the longer future. Brubaker concludes that theoutlook for the near term is generally favorable, but that the long-run prospects are much more dubious and will call for far-reaching adjustments in institutions and ways of thinking.

The book will be published early in 1972 by The Johns HopkinsPress and soon after in a paperback edition by the New AmericanLibrary in its Mentor set,es.

81

81

Marine Ftesourc

The growing trend toward more extensive national fishery limitsand the call for a third United Nations Conference on the Law ofthe Sea, to be held in 1973, were among the more important de-velopments relating to international marine resources during theyear. These events, which point to significant changes in inter-national arrangements for high seas fisheries, have prompted RFFto focus its current research on issues that are likely to be dis-cussed at the UN conference. William T. Burke of the School ofLaw, University of Washington, who, under an RFF grant to theUniversity, has been conducting a long-term study of fisheryarrangements, is investigating the issues posed by these new de-velopments. He has reported on some of the possible effects in"Some Thoughts on Fisheries and a New Conference on the Lawof the Sea" (Occasional Paper No. 9, Law of the Sea Institute,University of Rhode Island, Kingston, Rd., 1971). Burke andFrancis T. Christy, Jr., are also collaborating on a backgroundstudy of fishery arrangements and problei..s that is designed tofacilitate analysis of the issues likely to be raised in 1973. Futureplans are still tentative, but consideraion is being given to casestudies of trends, developments, and alternative arrangements inspecific fisheries,

The law of the sea for seabed minerals has also been under-going change. During the year, L. F. E. Goldie, professor of lawat Syracuse University, continued his work on this subject. Hepresented a paper, "The United States Draft for a United NationsConvention on the International Seabed Area," at the annualmeeting of the American Society of International Law. And hepublished the following papers: "The North Sea Continental ShelfCases A Ray of Hope for the international Court," New York1.,aw Forum, vol. 16, no. 2 (1970), and "The Continental Shelf'sOuter Boundary A Postscript," Journal of Law and MaritimeCommerce (October 1970).

Recent Trends in Natural Resource Commodities

In some of RFF's early studies of the question of economicscarcity of natural resources within the United States, much of theanalysis was based on the historical statistics in Trends in NaturalResource Commodities, by Neal Potter and Francis T. Christy, Jr.This book, published in 1962, provided uniform statistical serieson prices, output, consumption, foreign trade, and labor for almostall natural resources used in the United States. The individualseries were aggregated and deflated to produce indices of therelative importance of natural resources to the rest of the economy,and the study covered all years from 1870 through 1957.

An investigation of changes in trends since 1957 is being ca ed

82

out at Michigan State University, where Robert S. Manthy, asso-ciate professor in the Department of Forestry, is diracting an effortto update the Potter-Christy series through 1968. Data for theentire 99-year period, together with index weights and deflatorseries, are being transferred to computer cards as a means offacilitating aggregation of the series and on analysis of trends.To support some additional work on the series and an analysisof the results by Manthy, RFF made a grant of $2,500 to theUniversity this year.

Interrelationships Among Outdoor Recreational Demands

For the past two years a research team at the Natural ResourcesPolicy Center, The George Washington University, has been seek-ing to determine the degree to which ,:hanges in the use of anoutdoor recreation area are affected by changes in the availabilityand attractiveness of facilities located at competing sites.

The research, done under a grant from Resources for the Fu-ture, concentrated on eight Corps of Engineers reservoirs locatedin. the DallasFort Worth area of Texas. Comparisons among themwere made with regard to such variables as provision of facilities,extent of overnight accommodation, accessibility to centers ofpopulation, attendance levels and characteristics, quality of thearea, and fees charged.

In June the Center presented the results of its research in amimeographed report, "Determinants of Recreational Use at EightCorps of Engineers Reservoirs in the DallasFort Worth Area," byMary A. Holman, associate professor of economics at the Univer-sity and until recently acting director of the Center, and James T.Bennett, assistant professor of economics.

RFF Fellowship Program

During 1970-71, the elev nth year in which RFF has conductedits resources fellowship program, eleven fellowships wereawarded to doctoral candidates whose dissertations will involvethe application of the social sciences to natural resource problems:

Richard N. L. Andrews, University of North Carolina Functionalplanning and the environmental quality objective in selectedfederal agencies

David de Ferranti, Princeton University Transportation andurban structure

Riley E. Dunlap, University of Oregon Political pluralism andenvironmental issues: The impact of "non-decibions" on en-vironmental policy in Oregon

John Kuiper, Stanford University Economic planning of hydropower systems with multipurpose applications

3

Peter Hin Pung Ho, Carnegie-Mellon University Demand analy-sis for urban riverine recreation

Donald MacMillan, University of Montana A history of air andwater pollution in Montana

Richard H. Mead, Harvard University A methodology for publicpolicy decision making: Choosing between additional electricalgenerating capacity and cleaner air quality

Frederick M. Peterson, Princeton University Optimum use ofdepletable natural resources

George W. Silverthorne, University of California, Santa BarbaraOptimal production from a seaweed resource

Stephen W. Sorensen, University of Texas Coalitions and com-petition in resource development: "Fair" allocation of costs andbenefits in river basin development

Robert M. Spann, North Carolina State University The supplyand demand of oil and gas discoveries and production in theU.S.: A simultaneous equation approach

Fourteen RFT Fellows of previous years presented dissertationsto their universities in partial fulfillment of the requirements forthe degree of Doctor of Philosophy. The theses are listed below:

Francis Joseph Convery, Syracuse University Impacts of alter-native rural land-uses: A case study

James Connor Cox, Harvard University Essays in economictheory

Richard Verr Eas tin, University of California, Santa BarbaraAn entropy maximizing model of urban residential location

David Elias Euresty, Pennsylvania State University A systemsapproach to the regional evaluation of potential mineral re-sourr 'ming computer simulation, with a case study of theimpa: of infrastructure on potential supply of base and pre-cious metals of Sonora, Mexico

Dae Kyoon Kahng, University of Oklahoma An econometricstudy of production technology

Ronald G. Lorentson, University of Washington Temporal pro-duction interdependency in agriculture arising from waterquality

R. W. Pearson, University of Illinois Resource managementstrategies and regional viability: A study of the Great SlaveLake region, Canada

David Eldon Pingry, Purdue University Programming applica-tions to the economic problems of water quality control

Jeffrey Mel Romm, Cornell University Nuclear power, CayugaLake, and economics

Thomas Reynolds Stauffer, Harvard University The measure-ment of corporate rates of return and the marginal efficiency ofcapital

84

Norman Philip Swenson, Washington University An economicanalysis of federal timber marketing policies in southeast Alaska

William Downing Watson, Jr., University of Minnesota Costs ofair pollution control in the coal-fired electric power industry

Frederick John Wells, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyAn economic evaluation of the U.S. desalting research and de-velopment program

Stephen Hughes Zeller, Boston College The urban firm's pro-duction-location decision: Towards a theory of land andproperty taxation

84

Latin American Program

For most of the economically less-developed countries of theworld the use of their natural resources is important not only inbuilding their domestic economies but also in earning needed for-eign exchange. Over the past seven years, RFF has sought to makeits expertise available to these countries, concentrating in par-ticular on Latin America,

RFF's program of work on Latin American problems has a dualfocus: it generates research in the field and at the Washingtonoffice on resource and urbanization problems in the context ofLatin American development; and it attempts to stimulate interestand improve research capacity on resource problems in LatinAmerican countries through teaching and collaboration with localscholars.

During the program year Brazil was added to the countries inwhich RFF work is located, and work continued actively inMexico and Argentina. In Chile our association with the LatinAmerican Institute for Economic and Social Planning (ILPES)continues, enabling RFF to study problems not only in thatcountry but in others, particularly Bolivia, Peru, and Venezuela.

During the year RFF made a grant of $10,800 to the Universityof Minnesota in support of a project conducted by Hans Gregersen,assistant professor at the University's College of Forestry. Greger-sen is studying the structure of foreign investment in forest prod-uct industries in Latin America, the relationships between theinvestors and the host countries, and the impact of the invest-ments on the country. This study of a renewable resource industryshould provide useful points of comparison and contrast withRaymond F. Mikesell's Foreign Mvestment in the Petroleum andMineral Industries, which is referred to in more detail in theenergy and minerals section of this report.

A significant body of RFF research on the relationship betweenresources and development in Latin America already has beenpublished, some of it in Spanish. During the year Pierre Crosson'sbook, Agricultural Development and Productivity: Lessons from

85 the Chilean Experience, was published, and a Spanish language

version of Orris Herfindahl's book, Natural Resource Informationfor Economic Development (a joint RFF-ILPES study) was pub-lished under the title Los Recursos Nature les en el DesarrolloEconOmico. A monograph by Ronald Cummings was completedduring the year and is being prepared for publication in 1972. Italso will be published in Spanish. It deals with reservoir and irri-gation district management in a major agricultural region ofnorthern Mexico. In this area water receipts are small relativeto the amount of irrigable land, supplies are subject to greatvariation from year to year, and evaporation losses are high. Thestudy analyzes the optimum pattern of release from the Cardenasreservoir and the appropriate pattern and location of production.As a by-product of this and other work on the water resourceproblems of Mexico, Cummings prepared a paper on the manage-ment of underground water for publication in the December 1971

e of Water Resources Research.

Mexico

A highlight of the program in Mexico, where Ronald Cummingsis RFF's representative, was the establishment of a Water Man-agement Program in the Center for Agricultural Economics atthe Postgraduate College of the National Agricultural School inChapingo. This program, conceived by Cummings and establishedunder his leadership, is designed to further research and teachingon the development and management of Mexico's water resources.It has received financial support from the Mexican Ministry ofWater Resources (SRH) and has the full backing of the hostcollege.

The major research effort of the Water Management Programso far has been a study of a project that would transfer surpluswater 300 miles up the northwest coast of Mexico to supplementdeclining groundwater supplies in a prospering agricultural regionin the state of Sonora. The study, undertaken at the request ofSRH, is directed by Cummings, working with two senior staffmembers and three graduate students of the Center. Their princi-pal objective is to determine the net economic return of waterin the area of destination, taking into account other water usesthat might be made along the way. A novel feature of the analysisis that it explicitly incorporates the indirect impact of the projecton urban development in the region by way of an agriculturalmultiplier, measuring the extent to which other activities in thearea will be generated by an increase in agricultural production.

RFF joined with the Center for Agricultural Economics and SRHto sponsor a conference on planning for water development, heldin Mexico City in June. The conference was organized by RFF,whose board chairman, Erwin D. Canham, delivered the openingaddress. Major papers were presented by Steven Marglin of Har-

86 yard University and Charles W. Howe of the University of Colo-

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rado and formerly of RFF. Later, Marglin and Howe met with keypersonnel of the Water Resources Ministry and the Office of thePresident for a series of seminars.

In July Howe was invited by the conference sponsors to returnto Mexico for further consultations with SRH and the Center.While there he also joined with Cummings in the study of thewater transfer project mentioned above.

Pierre Crosson spent the summer in Mexico working with twograduate students from Chapingo on a study of the urbanizationprocess in Mexico. This project is designed to complement Cum-ming's work; Crosson will estimate the impact of the project onurban development. Crosson also is working with Luis Unikel,professor at the Colegio de Mexico, in supervising case studies ofthe relationship between agricultura?, development and urbaniza-tion in two other areas of Mexico. RFF is providing financial sup-port and guidance to the students at the Colegio who are doingthe studies as master's theses.

Argentina

Delbert Fitchett completed his term as RFF representative inArgentina in mid-year and is now with the staff in Washingtonfinishing the research he began in Argentina into the resource-based economic potential of the Comahue area of northern Pata-gonia. Focusing principally on agriculture, he has analyzed thepotential expansion of irrigated acreage and the evolution of croppatterns in the light of opportunities elsewhere in the country andmarkets for the products. An early version of his work was readat the meeting of the Argentine Agricultural Economics Associ-ation in July 1971. Related studies of the mineral and tourismindustries of the Comahue area are being conducted by the DiTel la Institute under RFF sponsorship. These, together withFitchett's work, should produce a thorough treatment of expansionpossibilities in a region where the Argentine government long hasaspired to accelerate development. Early in the year Fitchett de-livered a series of lectures on river basin planning at La PlataUniversity.

Kenneth Frederick, who became RFF's representative in Argen-tina in July, will be working out of the city of Mendoza, a thrivingcenter of irrigated agriculture and Argentina's principal grape andwine region. He expects to collaborate in the work of the InstituteNacional de Economia Legislación y Administracion del Ague(INELA), an autonomous institute of the Argentine governmentestablished for training and research in the field of water admin-istration. Additionally, he expects to work with students andfaculty at Cuyo University in Mendoza. Frederick was recentlywith the California Institute of Technology and has had previousexperience in Latin America with the U.S. Agency for Inter-

88 national Development.

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Brazil

In August Arthur Silvers, on leave from Rutgers University,started a two-year term as RFF's representative in Brazil. TheBrazilian institution with which RFF is associatEd is the Centerof Regional Development and Planning (CEDEPLAR), a part ofthe University of Minas Gerais in Belo Horizonte. CEDEPLAR isboth an undergraduate and graduate center for training and re-search in this field and ranks among the best in Brazil for thequality of its staff and students. In view of the size and diversityof the country and its strong tradition of decentralization, effectiveplanning in Brazil must rest on better understanding of regionaleconomies and on better coordination of regional and nationalplans. Silvers, who is a specialist in urban and regional planning,is examining the economy of Belo Horizonte as a member of ateam of Brazilian specialists. Thereafter he intends to studyBrazilian state planning methods and how state planning can hebrought into closer contact with the federal planning apparatus.He will conduct a seminar for staff members of the Center; laterhe will work within the Center's teaching program.

Work with ILPES

Michael Nelson continues as RFF's representative in the jointresearch program with ILPES in Santiago, Chile. Nelson, whosestudy of tropical land settlement in several Latin American coun-tries is under review, has turned his attention to an evaluation ofthe relative merits of two strategies for coping with the problemof rural underemployment and agricultural stagnation new landdevelopments and more intensive use of cultivated land. His studywill focus on the advantages of intensive versus extensive landuse in Peru's three major agricultural zones: the coast, the moun-tainous interior, and the eastern jungle. Roy Lave, with the Indus-trial Engineering Department at Stanford University, is collaborat-ing on some aspects of the study.

In addition to his research Nelson served during the year asagricultural advisor with ILPES planning missions to Venezuelaand Bolivia, and was consultant to the Agency for InternationalDevelopment on agricultural programs in Peru. While there heparticipated in a series of seminars held by the Peruvian Ministryof Agriculture.

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Publications

Most of the research done by Resources for the Future takes finalshape in the form of books, journal articles, and reprints meantfor a readership concerned with natural resources and the qualityof the environment, including academic specialists, general stu-dents, citizens' groups, and administrators in business, industry,and government.

BOOKS. During the 1070-71 program year, seventeen new bookswere published and eight others were sent to press; these titlesare indicated by an asterisk in the full list of publications below.

Book-length studies published by or for RFF fall into two cate-gories: (1) hardcover books for individual or library use, someof which are also made available as low-priced paperbacks foruse as texts or supplementary readings in colleges and uni-versities; and (2) paperbound monographs on more specializedresearch, reconnaissance studies, and collections of papers pre-sented at conferences sponsored by RFF. Most of the books in thefirst category are published and distributed .for Resources for theFuture by The Johns Hopkins Press and are indicated in the listbelow as JHP; the few issued through other publishers are soidentified. Books in the second category, which are published byResources for the Future, are distributed by The johns HopkinsPress. They are identified in the list as RFF.

GRANT-SUPPORTED STUDIES published by other institutions.Books based on research supported or partially supported by RFFgrants and issued by other publishers during the last five yearsare listed on pages 95 and 96.

THE RFF REPRINT SERIES. This series makes available selectedpapers written by RFF staff members and originally published injournals or proceedings. Single copies are free on request. Six newreprints were added during the program year. Reprints availableat the close of the year and staff writings published in professionaljournals during the year are listed on pages 97 and 104-6.

RESOURCES. This bulletin, issued three times a year, containsbrief articles based on material from recent RFF books or papers.The January issue reviews some significant events of the previousyear relating to the use and management of natural resources. Thebulletin, which varies in length from four to sixteen pages, isfree on request.

BOOKLETS. The following are available free: a brief descriptionof the organization, Resources for the Future, Inc.: RS Aims andWork; a booklet listing RFF fellowship recipients from 1960 to1967, together with their past and current affiliations; and a listof RFF books in print. Also available is a report on the work ofthe Committee on Urban Economics and of development in thefield from 1959 to 1968, entitled Progress in Urban Economics.Single copies of this 142-page publication are available free;additional copies are $1.00 each.

RFF BOOKS STILL IN PRINT

NATURAL RESOURCES ANDECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Arrow, Kenneth J., and Mordecai Kurz. Pub-lic Investment, the Rate of Return, and Op-timal Fiscal Policy. JHP, 1970; second print-ing 1971. 248 pp. $9.00.

Barnett, Harold J., and Chandler Morse. Scar-city and Growth: The Economics of NaturalResource Availability. JHP, 1963; secondprinting 1908. 304 pp. $9.00. Paper 1969,82.25. Polish Edition. Ekanomika zasobownaturalnych. Warsaw: Ksiaka i Wiedza,1967. ZI 30.

Clawson, Marion, ed. Natural Resources andInternational Development essays basedon the RFF Forum lectures of 1963. JHP,1964; second printing 1965. 474 pp. $12.00.

Fisher, Joseph L, and Neal Potter. WorldProspects for Natural Resources: SameProjections of Demand and Indicators ofSupply to the Year 2000. RFF, 1964; thirdprinting 1971. 78 pp. Paper, $1.50.

*Havernan, Robert H. The Economic Perform-ance of Public Investments: An Ex PostEvaluation of Water Resources Invest-ments. JHP. Scheduled for January 1972.152 pp. $7.00.

Haveman, Robert H., and John V. Krutilla.Unemployment, Idle Capacity, and theEvaluation of Public Expenditures: Na-tional and Regional Analyses. JHP, 1968.176 pp. $6.50.

Jarrett, Henry, ed. Comparisons in ResourceManagement: Six Notable Programs inOther Countries and Their Possible U.S.Application essays based on the RFFForum lectures of 1961. JHP, 1961. 288 pp.Cloth out of print. Paper edition (Univer-sity of Nebraska Press) 1965, $1.65.

tLandsberg, Hans H. Natural Resources forU.S. Growth: A Look Ahead to the Year2000. Based on Resources in America'sFuture, JHP, 1964; third printing 1967. 256pp. Paper, $2.45.

Landsberg, Hans H., Leonard L. Fischman,and Joseph L. Fisher, Resources in Amer-ica's Future: Patterns of Requirements andAvailabilities, 1960-2000, JHP, 1983; secondprinting 1954, 1,040 pp. $20.00. Russian edi-tion. Resursy S.Sh.A. v budushtshem. 2vols. Moscow: Isdatelstvo Progress, 1965,3r. 57k.

*Levin, Harvey J. The Invisible Resource: Useand Regulation of the Radio Spectrum.RIP, 1971. 440 pp. $12.00.

Potter, Neal, and Francis T. Christy, Jr.Trends in Natural Resource Commodities:Statistics of Prices, Output, Consumption,Foreign Trade, and Employment in the

*Published or in press during the 1970-71 program year.1-Especially prepared for general readers,Note: EFT' and /HP books in this list may be ordered from The Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, Maryland 21218, or

2-4 Brook Street, London, W.IA, 1.4A, England.

91

crr)

United States, 1670-1959. jIIP, 1962. 580 pp.$17.50.

ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

*Ayres, Robert U., and Richard P. McKenna.Alternatives to the Internal CombustionEngine: Impacts on Environmental Quality.JHP. Publication scheduled for Summer1972. 408 pp. $12.00.

"tBrubaker, Sterling. To Live on Earth: Manand His Environment in Perspective. JI-113.Publication scheduled for March 1972. 224pp. $6.95. Paper, New American Library(Mentor), scheduled for April 1972. $1.50.

*Goldstein, Jon H. Competition for Wetlandsin the Midwest: An Economic Analysis.RFF, 1971. 120 pp. Paper, $3.50.

Headley, J. C., and J. N. Lewis. The PesticideProblem: An Economic Approach to PublicPolicy, RFF, 1967; second printing 1970. 160pp. Paper, $3.50.

Herfindahl, Orris C., and Allen V. Kneese.Quality of the Environment: An EconomicApproach to Some Problems in Using Land,Water, and Air. REF, 1965; third printing1999. 104 pp. Paper, $2.00.

Jarrett, Henry, ed. Environmental Quality ina Growing Economy essays based on theRFF Forum lectures of 1906. JHP, 1966;third printing 1970. 184 pp. $6.00. Paper,1971.

Jarrett, Henry, ed. Perspectives on Conserva-tion - essays on America's natural re-sources based on the RFF Forum lecturesof 1958. JHP, 1958; fourth printing 1968. 272PP. $7.50. Paper, 1969, $2.45.

*Kneese, Allen V., Robert U. Ayres, and RalphC. d'Arge. Economics and the Environment:A Materials Balance Approach. REF, 1970;second printing 1971. 132 pp. Paper, $2.50.

*Kneese, Allen V, and Blair T. Bower, eds.Environmental Quality Analysis: Theoryand Method in the Social Sciences. JHP.Scheduled for Spring 1972. 408 pp. $12.00.

WATER RESOURCES

Bain, JOe S., Richard E. Caves, and JuliusMargolis. Northern California's Water In-dustry: The Comparative Efficiency of Pub-lic Enterprise in Developing a Scarce Na-tural Resource. JHP, 1966. 784 pp. $17.50.

Cleary, Edward J. The ORSANCO Story: Wa-ter Quality Management in the Ohio Valleyunder an Interstate Compact. JHP, 1967.352 pp. $10.00. Paper, $2.95.

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Cootner, Paul H., and George 0. G. Ulf. Wa-ter Demand for Steam Electric Generation:An Economic Projection Model. REF, 1966.156 pp. Paper, $4.00.

Craine, Lyle E. Water Management Innova-tions in England. REF, 1969. 136 pp. Paper,$3.50.

Davis, Robert K. The Range of Choice in Wa-ter Management: A Study of DissolvedOxygen in the Potomac Estuary. JHP, 1960.216 pp. $8.00.

Hartman, L. M., and Don Seastone. WaterTransfers: Economic Efficiency and Alter-native Institutions. JHP, 1970. 144 pp. $5.75.

Haveman, Robert H. See under Natural Re-sources and Economic Development.

Howe, Charles W., et el. Inland WaterwayTransportation: Studies in Public and Pri-vate Management and Investment Deci-sions. RFF, 1969. 151 pp. Paper, $5.00.

"Howe, Charles W., and K. William Easter.Interbasin Transfers of Water: EconomicIssues and Impacts. JHP, 1971, 212 pp. $9.50.

Kneese, Allen V. Water Pollution: EconomicAspects and Research Needs. RFF, 1962;fourth printing 1971. 116 pp. Paper, $1.75.

Kneese, Allen V., and Blair T. Bower. Man-aging Water Quality: Economics, Technol-ogy, Institutions. JHP, 1968. 344 pp. $8.95.

Kneese, Allen V., and Stephen C. Smith, eds.Water Research - 1965 seminars in waterresources research (REF and Western Re-sources Conference). JHP, 1966; secondprinting 1969. 534 pp. $15.00.

Krutilla, John V. The Columbia River Treaty:The Economics of an International RiverBasin Development. }BP, 1967. 236 pp. $7.50.

Krutilla, John V., and Otto Eckstein. MultiplePurpose River Development: Studies in Ap-plied Economic Analysis, JHP, 1958; thirdprinting 1964. 316 pp. $10.00. Paper 1969,$2.95.

Leif, George 0. C., and Allen V. Kneese. TheEconomics of Water Utilization in the BeetSugar Industry, REF, 1968. 140 pp- Paper,$4.00.

*Russell, Clifford S., David C. Arey, and Rob-ert W. Kates. Drought and Water Supply:Implications of the Massachusetts Exper-ience for Municipal Planning. JHP, 1970.232 pp. $8.00.

Ruttan, Vernon W. The Economic Demand forIrrigated Acreage: New Methodology andSome Preliminary Projections, 1954-1980.JHP, 1965. 152 pp. $5.00.

*Wellman, Nathaniel, and Gilbert W. Bonem.The Outlook for Water: Quality, Quantity,and Notional Growth. JFIP, 1971. 304 pp.(81/2" x 11"). $12.00.

MARINE RESOURCES

Christy, Francis T., Jr., and Anthony Scott.The Common Wealth in Ocean Fisheries:Some Problems of Growth and EconomicAllocation. JHP, 1963. 296 pp. $9.00. Spanishedition. La pesca ocednica: explotacion deuna riqueza cormin, alganos problemas decrecimiento y distribucion econamica. Mex-ico, DX.: Union Tipografica Editorial His-pano Americana, 1967.

Crutchfield, James A., and Giulio Pontecorvo.The Pacific Salmon Fisheries: A Study ofIrrational Conservation. JHP, 1969. 232 pp.$8.50.

LAND (INCLUDINGFORESTRY AND RECREATION)

*tClawson, Marion. America's Land and ItsUses. RIP. 184 pp. Cloth $8.50, paper $2.45.Scheduled for December 1971.

Clawson, Marion. The Federal Lands Since1956: Recent Trends in Use and Manage-ment. RFF, 1967. 128 pp. Paper, $4.00.

Clawson, Marion. Policy Directions for U.S.Agriculture: Long-Range Choices in Farm-ing and Rural Living. 'EP, 1968. 416 pp.$12.00. Spanish edition. Problernas de /aProducción Agricola. Mexico, D.F.: Editor-ial Letras, S.A., 1970.

*Clawson, Marion. Suburban Land Conversionin the United States: An Economic andGovernmental Process. JEIP, 1971. 424 pp.$12.50.

Clawson, Marion, and R. Burnell Held. TheFederal Lands: Their Use and Management.JHP, 1957. 536 pp. $12.50. Second printing1967. Paper edition (University of NebraskaPress), 1965, $2.95,

Clawson, Marion, R. Burnell Held, and CharlesH. Stoddard. Land for the Future. JHP,1960; third printing 1968. 590 pp. $14.00.

Clawson, Marion, and Jack L. Knetsch. Eco-nomics of Outdoor Recreation. JI-IP, 1966;second printing, 1969. 356 pp. $8.50. Paper1971, $2,95.

*Clawson, Marion, Hans H. Landsberg, andLyle T. Alexander. The Agricultural Poten-tial of the Middle East. An RFF-Rand study.(American Elsevier Publishing Company,New York.) 1971. 332 pp. (81/2" x 11").$19.50.

Clawson, Marion, with Charles L. Stewart.Land Use Information: A Critical Survey ofU.S. Statistics, Including Possibilities forGreater Uniformity. RFF, 1966; second

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printing 1969. 416 pp. Paper, $6.00.*Clepper, Henry. Professional Forestry in the

United States. JHP. Scheduled for Decem-ber 1971, 352 pp. $10.00.

Guthrie, John A., and George R. Armstrong.Western Forest Industry: An EconomicOutlook. JHP, 1961. 352 pp. $9.00.

Held, R. Burnell, and Marion Clawson. SoilConservation in Perspective. JHP, 1965. 384pp. $10.00. Portuguese edition. Conservacãodo Solo: Passado, Presente e Futuro. Rio deJaneiro: Edicties 0 Cruzeiro, 1965.

Ise, John. Our National Park Policy: A Criti-cal History. JHP, 1961. Second printing1967. 714 pp. $17.50.

Kaufman, Herbert. The Forest Ranger: AStudy in Administrative Behavior. JHP,1960; third printing 1967. 278 pp. $7.50.Paper 1967, $2.45.

Morgan, Robert J. Governing Soil Conserva-tion: Thirty Years of the New Decentraliza-tion, JHP, 1966. 416 pp. $10.00.

*Resources for the Future. Agricultural Devel-opment in the Mekong Basin: Goals, Priori-ties, and Strategies. RFF, 1971. 116 pp.Paper, $2.50.

Resources for the Future. Forest Credit in theUnited States - report of a Committee ap-pointed by Resources for the Future. RFF,1958. 168 pp. Paper, $2.00.

Schmid, A. Allan. Converting Land from Ruralto Urban Uses. RFF, 1968; second printing1971. 128 pp. Paper, $4.00.

Zivnuska, John A. U.S. Timber Resources ina World Economy. RFF, 1967. 140 pp. Paper,$3.50.

ENERGY AND NONFUEL MINERALS

Brooks, David B. Low-Grode and Nonconven-tional Sources of Manganese. RFF, 1966.136 pp. Paper, $3.00.

Brooks, David B. Supply and Competition inMinor Metals. RFF, 1966. 168 pp. Paper,$3.00.

Brooks, David B., and John V. Krutilla. Peace-ful Use of Nuclear Explosives: Some Eco-nomic Aspects. RFF, 1969. 56 pp. Paper,$1,50.

Brubaker, Sterling. Trends in the World Alu-minum Industry. IMP, 1967. 264 pp. $8.50.

Campbell, Robert W. The Economics of So-viet Oil and Gas. JHP, 1968. 300 pp. $9.50.

*Darrnstadter, Joel, with Perry D. Teitelbaumand Jaroslav G. Polach. Energy in theWorld Economy. ;HP. Scheduled for De-cember 1971. 900 pp. (81/2" x 11"). $22.50.

94

Hazleton, Jared E. The Economics of the Sul-phur Industry. RFF, 1970. 184 pp. Paper,$3.50.

Herfindahl, Orris C. Copper Costs and Prices:1870-1957. IHP, 1959. 272 pp. $7.50.

fLandsberg, Hans H., and Sam H. Schurr.Energy in the United States: Sources, Uses,and Po/icy Issues. New York: RandomHouse, 1968. 248 pp. $5.95. Paper, $3.50.

Lovejoy, Wallace F., and Paul T. Homan. Eco-nomic Aspects of Oil Conservation Regula-tion. JHP, 1967. 312 pp. $10.00.

Lovejoy, Wallace F., and Paul T. Homan.Methods of Estimating Reserves of CrudeOil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids.REF, 1965. 176 pp. Paper, $3.00.

fMcDivitt, James F. Minerals and Men: AnExploration of the World of Minerals and/ts Effect on the World We Live in. JHP,1965; third printing 1971. 188 pp. Paper,$1.95. Spanish edition. Los minerales y elhombre. Mexico: Editorial Lirnusa-Wiley,S. A., 1966.

*McDonald, Stephen L. Petroleum Conserva-tion in the United States: An EconomicAnalysis. JHP, 1971. 296 pp. $10.00.

"Manners, Gerald. The Changing World Mar-ket for Iron Ore, 1950-1980: An EconomicGeography. JHP, 1971. 400 pp. $14,00.

*Manners, Gerald. The Changing World Mar-ket for Iron Ore: A Descriptive SupplementCovering the Years 1950-1965. Ann Arbor,Mich.: University Microfilms (Xerox), 1971.194 pp. Order Number OP 57,522. Paper,$9.70, plus shipping and handling charges.

*Mikesell, Raymond F., and associates. For-eign Investment in the Petroleum and Min-eral Industries: Case Studies of Investor-Host Country Relations. JHP, 1971. 480 pp.$15.00.

Resources for the Future. U.S. Energy Pol-icies: An Agenda for Research. RFF, 1968;second printing 1969. 160 pp. Paper, $4.00.

Schurr, Sam H. Historical Statistics of Min-erals in the United States. RFF, 1960; sec-ond printing 1966. 48 pp. Paper, $1.00.

"Schurr, Sam H., Paul T. Homan, and asso-ciates. Middle Eastern Oil and the WesternWorld: Prospects and Problems. An RFF-Rand Study, New York: American ElsevierPublishing Company, 1971. 218 pp. (81/2" x11"). $16.00.

Schurr, Sam H., and Bruce C. Netschert, withVera F. Eliasberg, Joseph Lerner, and HansH. Landsberg. Energy in the American Econ-omy 1850-1975. JI-IP, 1960. 796 pp. $15.00.Russian edition. Energetika ekonomike S.Sh.A. 1850-1975. Moscow: Isdatelstvo eko-nomicheskoe literatury, 1963. 1r. 90k.

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URBAN AND REGIONAL STUDIES

*Cameron, Gordon C. Regional Economic De-velopment; The Federal Role. REF, 1970.172 pp. Paper, $4.00.

*Dunn, Edgar S., Jr. Economic and Social De-velopment: A Process of Social Learning.JHP, 1971. 352 pp. $10.00.

Heller, Walter W., Richard Ruggles, Lyle C.Fitch, Carl S. Shoup, Harvey E. Brazer.(Harvey S. Perloff and Richard P. Nathan,eds.) Revenue Sharing and the City.1968. 124 pp. $6.00. Paper, $2.50.

Hirsch, Werner Z., ed. Elements of RegionalAccounts - papers presented et the Con-ference on Regional Accounts, 1962, spon-sored by the Committee on Regional Ac-counts. JHP, 1964. 240 pp. $7.50.

Hirsch, Werner Z., ed. Regional Accounts forPolicy Decisions -papers presented at theConference on Regional Accounts, 1964,sponsored by the Committee on RegionalAccounts. ji-IP, 1966. 248 pp. $7.50.

Hochwald, Werner, ed. Design of RegionalAccounts- papers presented at the Con-ference on Regional Accounts, 1960, spon-sored by the Committee on Regional Ac-counts. JHP, 1961; second printing 1969. 302pp. $7.50.

Keyes, Scott. Urban and Regional Studies atU.S. Universities. Compiled and edited byScott Keyes under the sponsorship of theBureau of Community Planning. Universityof Illinois. RFF, 1964. 136 pp. Paper, $2,00.

Margolis, Julius, ed. The Public Economy ofUrban Communities - papers presented ata 1964 conference sponsored by the Com-mittee on Urban Economics. RFF, 1965;second printing 1969. 237 pp. Paper, $6.00.

*Mills, Edwin S. Studies in the Structure ofthe Urban Economy. JHP. Scheduled forSpring, 1972. 160 pp. $7.00.

Neutze, Max. The Suburban Apartment Boom:Case Study of a Land Use Problem. RFF,1968. 152 pp. Paper, $5.00.

Perloff, Harvey S., ed. The Quality of theUrban Environment: Essays on "New Re-sources" in an Urban Age. RFF, 1969; thirdprinting 1971. 344 pp. Paper, $6.50.

Perloff, Harvey S., Edgar S. Dunn, Jr., Eric E.Lampard, and Richard F. Muth. Regions,Resources, and Economic Growth. J.HP,1960. 742 pp. Cloth out of print. Paper edi-tion (University of Nebraska Press) 1965,$2.40.

fPerloff, Harvey S., with Vera W. Dodds.How a Region Grows: Area Developmentin the U.S. Economy. Based on Regions,Resources, and Economic Growth. Corn-

95

mittee for Economic Development, NewYork (Supplementary Paper No. 17), 1963.148 pp. Paper, $2.25.

Perloff, Harvey S., and Richard P. Nathan,eds. Revenue Shoring and the City (seeHeller et al.).

Perloff, Harvey S., and Lowdon Wingo, eds.Issues in Urban Economics. IFIP, 1968; thirdprinting 1970. 688 pp. $15.00. Paper, $5.00.

Resources for the Future. Design for a World-wide Study of Regional Development. Areport to the United Nations on a proposedresearch-training program. REF, 1966; sec-ond printing 1967. 90 pp. Paper, $1.50.

Rogers, George W. Alaska in Transition: TheSoutheast Region. JHP, 1960; second print-ing 1967. 398 pp. $10.00.

Rogers, George W. The Future of Alaska:Economic Consequences of Statehood. JHP,1962. 324 pp. $10.00.

Schaller, Howard G., ed. Public ExpenditureDecisions in the Urban Communitypaperspresented at a 1962 conference sponsoredby the Committee on Urban Economics,RFF, 1963; fourth printing 1971. 208 pp.Paper, $3.50.

Thompson, Wilbur R. A Preface to UrbanEconomics. JHP, 1965; second printing 1967,385 pp. $7.50. Paper 1969, $3.45. Japaneseedition. Toshi Kuzai Goku Josetsu. Tokyo:Kajima Institute Publishing Co., Ltd., 1969.390 pp. 1700 Y.

Wingo, Lowden, ed. Cities and Space: TheFuture Use of Urban Land essays basedon the RFF Forum lectures of 1962. JHP,1963; fourth printing 1970. 268 pp. $6.00.

Paper, 1969, $2.45. Japanese edition. KajimaInstitute Publishing Co., Ltd., 1969. 270 pp.1300 Y.

Wingo, Lowdon. Transportation and UrbanLand. RFF, 1961; third printing 1958. 144pp. Paper $2.50.

LATIN AMERICAN STUDIES

*Crosson, Pierre R. Agricultural Developmentand Productivity: Lessons from the ChileanExperience. JHP, 1970. 216 pp. $7.00.

Grunwald, Joseph, and Philip Musgrove. Na-tural Resources in Latin American Devel-opment. JHP, 1970. 516 pp. (81/2" x 11", 248tables). $20.00.

Herfindahl, Orris C. Natural Resource Infor-mation for Economic Development. JHP,1969. 232 pp. $7.00. Spanish edition. LosRecursos Naturales en el Desarrollo Eco-nómico. Santiago: Editorial Universitoria,S.A., 1970.

*Mikesell, Raymond F., and associates (see un-der Energy and Nonfuel Minerals).

Perloff, Harvey. Alliance for Progress: A So-cial invention in the Making. JHP, 1969.270 pp. $8.50.

Wont-non, Nathaniel. The Water Resources ofChile: An Economic Method for Analyzinga Key Resource in a Nation's Development.JHP, 1368. 296 pp. $7.50. Spanish edition.Los Recursos HidrOulicos de Chile. Cuader-nos del Institut° Latinamericano de Planift-cacion Económica y Social, Series II, No.10, Santiago, 1959.

STUDIES UNDERTAKEN WITH RFF SUPPORT AND PUBLISHED

BY OTHER INSTITUTIONS DURING THE LAST FIVE YEARS

Berry, Brian J. L., and Andrzej Wróbel, eds.Economic Regionalization and NumericalMethods. Report of the Commission on Meth-ods of Economic Regionalization of the Inter-national Geographical Union. Warsaw; PolishAcademy of Sciences, Institute of Geography,1968. 240 pp., paper, ZI. 56 (approx. $2,50).(Research supported by grants to Universityof Chicago.)

Bradley, Paul G. Economics of Crude Petro-leum Production. Voorburgwal, Amsterdam:North-Holland Publishing Co., 1967. 149 pp.,fl. 32.50 (approx. $10.00). (Grent to Massa-chusetts Institute of Technology.)

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Brock, Samuel M., and David B. Brooks. TheMyles fob Mine: A Study of Benefits andCosts of Surface Mining for Coal in NorthernWest Virginia. Series 68, no. 10-5. Morgan-town; West Virginia University Center forAppalachian Studies and Development, 1068.61 pp. (Grant to West Virginia UniversityFoundation.)

Cumberland, John H. Regional Development:Experiences and Prospects in the UnitedStates of America. Regional Planning Seriesof the United Nations Research Institute forSocial Development, Geneva. The Hague:Mouton, 1971. 186 pp.

9G

Duncan, Beverly, and Stanley Lieberson. Metro-polis and Region in Transition. Beverly Hills:Sage Publications, 1970. 316 pp. $8.95. (Grantto University of Michigan.)

Fiering, Myron B. Streamflow Synthesis. Cam-bridge: Harvard University Press, 1966. 160pp., $6.00. (Grant to Harvard University,)

Fishman, Leo, ed. Poverty Amid Affluence, NewHaven: Yale University Press, 1966. 258 pp.;cloth, $6.00; paper, $1.75. (Grant to West Vir-ginia University Foundation.)

Gerwin, Donald. Budgeting Public Funds: TheDecision Process in an Urban School District.Madison: University of Wisconsin Press,1909. 170 pp., $7.50. (Grant to Carnegie-MellonUniversity.)

Guyol, N. B. The World Electric Power Indus-try. Berkeley: University of California Press,1969. 3E16 pp $20.00 (Grant to University ofCalifornia, Berkeley.)

Hickey, Richard J., David E. Boyce, Evelyn B.Hamer, and Richard C. Clelland. ExploratoryEcological Studies of Variables Related toChronic Disease Mortality Rates. 1971. 194pp. Paper (Xeroxed). (Grant to Fels Instituteof Local and State Government, University ofPennsylvania.)

Hirsch, Werner Z., and Sidney Sonenblum. Se-lecting Regional Information for GovernmentPlanning and Decision-Making. New York:Praeger Publishers, 1970. 212 pp. $12.50.(Grant to University of California, Los An-geles.)

Holman, Mary A., and James T. Bennett. Deter-minants of Recreational Use at Eight Corps ofEngineers Reservoirs in the Dallas-FortWorth Area. Washington, D.C.: George Wash-ington University, 1971. 211 pp. Paper(mimeo.), $4.00. (Grant to Natural ResourcesPolicy Center, George Washington Univer-sity.)

Klausner, Samuel Z. On Man and His Environ-ment. Jossey-Bass Behavioral Science Series.San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1971. 238 pp.$8.50. (Grant to Bureau of Social Science Re-search, Inc.)

MacAvoy, Paul W. Economic Strategy for De-veloping Nuclear Breeder Reactors, Cam-bridge and London: M.I.T. Press, 1969. 216pp., $10.00. (Grant to Massachusetts Instituteof Technology.)

McCullough, Dale R. The Tule Elk: Its History,Behavior, and Ecology. Publications in Zool-ogy, vol. 88. Berkeley and Los Angeles: Uni-versity of California Press, 1989. 209 pp.$6.50. (Grant to University of California.)

Mack, Ruth P. Planning on Uncertainty: Deci-

90

skim Making in Business and Government Ad-ministration. New York: John Wiley & Sons,1991. 256 pp. $11.95. (Grant to the Institute ofPublic Administration.)

Mennes, L. B. M., Jan Tinbergen, and J. GeorgeWaardenburg. The Element of Space in De-velopment Planning. Voorburgwal, Amster-dam: The North-Holland Publishing Co., 1969.340 pp. D. fl. 54 ($15.75). (Grant to Nether-lands Economic Institute.)

Nash, Roderick W. Wilderness and the Ameri-can Mind. New Haven: Yale University Press,1967. 256 pp., $6.50 (Grant to University ofWisconsin.)

Ring land, Arthur C. Conserving Human andNatural Resources. Berkeley, Calif.: Univer-sity of California, 1970. 368 pp. Paper (Xerox),$48.00. (Grant to Regional Oral History Of-fice, Bancroft Library, University of Califor-nia, Berkeley.)

Schlebecker, John. Living Historical Farms: AWalk into the Past. Smithsonian InstitutionPublication 4747. Washington, D.C.: Smith-sonian Institution, 1968. Distributed by PortCity Press, Baltimore. 31 pp., free. (Grant toSmithsonian Institution.)

Schnitzer, Martin. Regional Unemployment andthe Relocation of Workers. Praeger SpecialStudies in International Economics and De-velopment. New York: Praeger, 1970. 253 pp.$15.00. (Grant to Virginia Polytechnic Insti-tute.)

Smith, Wallace F. Housing: The Social andEconomic Elements. Berkeley and Los An-geles: University of California Press, 1970.528 pp., $12.95. (Grant to University of Cali-fornia, Berkeley.)

Thomas, Ray. Aycliffe to Cumbernauld: A Studyof Seven New Towns in Their Regions. vol.35, broadsheet 516. London: Political andEconomic Planning, Dec. 1969. 172 pp. 205.(Grant to Political and Economic Planning.)

Thomas, Ray. Journeys to Work. vol. 34, broad-sheet 504. London: Political and EconomicPlanning, November 1968. 84 pp. 7s. 6d.(Grant to Political and Economic Planning.)

Thomas, Ray. London's New Towns: A Studyof Self-contained and Balanced Communities.vol. 35, broadsheet 510. London: Political andEconomic Planning, April 1969. 100 pp. lOs.(Grant to Political and Economic Planning.)

Wonnacott, Ronald J and Paul Wonnacott.Free Trade between the United States andCanada: The Potential Economic Effects.Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1967.452 pp., $9.00. (Grant to University of West-ern Ontario.)

7

REF REPRINT SERIES STILL, AVAILAI3LE*

10. Methods of Measuring the Demand for andValue of Outdoor Recreation, by Marion 88.Clawson. Third printing 1970.

30. What is Conservation? by Orris C. Herfin-dahl. From Three Studies in Minerals Eco-nomics. Resources for the Future. Inc.,1961.

66. The Lead-Zinc Anomaly, by David B.Brooks. From Transactions (Society ofMining Engineers), June 1967.

75. Latin American Urbanization: Plan or Proc- 89.ess? by Lowdon Wingo. From Shaping anUrban Future, by Bernard J. Frieden andWilliam Nash (Cambridge: The M.I.T.Press, 1969).

76. Production, Consumption, and Externali-ties, by Robert U. Ayres and Allen V.Kneese. From American Economic Review, 90.June 1969.

77. The Definition and Measurement of DroughtLosses: The Northeast Drought of 1962-66, 92.by Clifford S. Russell. From Proceedings ofthe Fourth American Water ResourcesConference, 1969.

78. Desalted Sea Water for Agriculture: Is ItEconomic? by Marion Clawson, Hans H. 93.Landsberg, and Lyle T. Alexander. FromScience, June 6, 1969.

81. Negotiation and Land Conversion, byGeorge M. McBride and Marion Clawson.From journal of the American Institute of 94.Planners, January 1970.

82. A New Policy Direction for American Agri-culture, by Marion Clawson. From journal 95.of Soil and Water Conservation, vol. 25,no. 1 (1970).

84. Coalitions, Minority Representation, andVote-Trading Probabilities, by Edwin T.Haefele. From Public Choice, Spring 1970. 96.

85. The Development of Energy in East Europe,by J. G. Polach. From Economic Develop-ments in Countries of Eristern Europe, acompendium of papers submitted to theSubcommittee on Foreign Economic Policyof the Joint Economic Committee, 91 Cong., 97.2 seas. (1970).

80. International Flows of Energy Sources, byJoel Darmstadter. From IEEE Spectrum,May 1970.

87. Marigenous Minerals; Wealth, Regimes, and 98.Factors of Decision, by Francis T. Christy,Jr. From Symposium on the InternationalRegime of the Sea-Bed: Proceedings (Rome:

*Reprints listed are available from RFF; single copiescents each, except No. la and No. 85 (50 cents).

97

Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei. 1970).Protecting our Environment and Natural Re-sources in the 1970's, by Allen V. Kneese.From The Environmental Decade (ActionProposals for the 1970's), Hearings beforea Subcommittee of the Committee on Gov-ernment Operations, House of Representa-tives, 91 Cong., 2 sess. (Washington: U.S.Government Printing Office, 1970).Middle Eastern Oil in the Next Decade:Some Prospects and Problems, by 6am H.Schurr. From Proceedings of the Council ofEconomics, American Institute of Mining.Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers,Inc., Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado,February 15-19, 1970.Losses from Natural Hazards, by Clifford S.Russell. From journal of Land Economics,vol. 46, no. 4 (1970).Water Pollution Control River Basin Au-thorities, and Economic Incentives: SomeCurrent Policy Issues, by A. Myrick Free-man ni and Robert H. Haveman. FromPublic Policy, vol. 19, no. 1 (Winter 1971).Evaluation of an Aspect of EnvironmentalQuality: Hells Canyon Revisited, by John V.Krutilla. From Proceedings of the SocialStatistics Section, 1970, American Statisti-cal Association, Washington, D.C, 1971.A Utility Theory of Government, by EdwinT. Haefele. From American Economic Re-view, June 1971.Models for investigation of Industrial Re-sponse to Residuals Management Action,by Clifford S. Russell. From The Swedishjournal of Economics, vol. 73, no. 1 (March1971).Conservation as Research, Policy. andAction, by Joseph L. Fisher. The HoraceM. Albright Conservation Lectureship no.XI, School of Forestry and Conservation,University of California, Berkeley, April15, 1971.Option Demand and Consumer Surplus:Further Comment, by Charles J. Cicchettiand A. Myrick Freeman III. From Quar-terly Journal of Economics, vol. 85 (Aug-ust 1971),Solid Residuals Management: Some Eco-nomic Considerations, by Walter 0. Spof-ford, Jr. From Natural Resources Journal,vol. II (1971).

e on request; additional copies of the same reprint at 25

Related Staff Activities and Writings

ACTI V ITIES A SELECTIVE LIST

BLAIR T. BOWER. Consultant to the New YorkState Office of Planning Coordination; Mary-land Environmental Service; and Office of SolidWastes, Environmental Protection Agency.Served on editorial hoards of the Natural Re-source Journal and the Journal of Soil and Wa-ter Conservation. Faculty member, Curso Sobreel Control de la Contaminación del Ague,PAHO, and Universidad Nacional Aut6nomade Mexico, Mexico City; and visiting lecturer,Department of City and Regional Planning, Uni-versity of North Carolina. Member of the Visit-ing Committee, Environmental Systems Man-agement Program, School of Architecture andUrban Planning, University of California atLos Angeles. Panelist at Jeffries and CompanyConference on Background for Investment De-cisions, Hawaii; and member of Panel on Fore-casting, National Water Commission. Partic-ipated in and gave a paper at the Conferenceon Environmental Management of an UrbanWorld System, Netherlands University Founda-tion for International Cooperation, Noordwijk.Spoke on various aspects of environmentalquality management at Triangle UniversitiesConsortium on Air Pollution Workshop, South-ern Economics Association session on air qual-ity management, and at meetings of Corps ofEngineers planners, and the Harvard UniversityEnvironmental Systems Group.

MICHAEL F. BREWER. Served on AdvisoryCommittee to Environmental Program, OakRidge National Laboratory. Chaired panel onNew Economic Roles for the Rural Environ-ment at American Agricultural Economics As-

sociation winter meeting, Detroit. Presented thefollowing papers: "Delineating Targets for Na-tural Resources Research," at the Annual Meet-ing of Committee on Economics of Natural Re-sources Development, San Francisco; "ShouldEconomics Dictate Resource Allocation Deci-sions?" at 36th North American Wildlife andNatural Resources Conference, Portland, Ore-gon; "Environmental Pressures cm PopulationGrowth" at U.S. Department of State Confer-ence on Population, Airlie House, Virginia;"Agri-Systems and Eno-Cultures, or: Can Agri-culture Internalize its Environmental External-ities?" AAEA National Conference on Agri-culture's Effect on Environmental Quality,Southern Illinois University, Carbondale. Gavekeynote address, "Breakdowns in Society'sMetabolism," at Symposium on EnvironmentalQuality and Social Responsibility at Green Bay,Wisconsin; spoke on regional research in thearea of environmental quality at a SouthernLand Economic Research Committee meeting atBiloxi, Mississippi; and lectured on "Environ-mental Concerns of Agricultural Economics" atUniversity of Missouri-Columbia.

FRANCIS T. CHRISTY, R. Served as memberof the Executive Committee, Law of the SeaInstitute; Law of the Sea Panel, American So-ciety of International Law; Commission toStudy the Organization of Peace; InternationalMarine Science Affairs Policy Committee,Ocean Affairs Board, National Academy ofSciences; Advisory Council, Ocean StudiesProgram, Woodrow Wilson International Cen-ter for Scholars; Advisory Panel for Sea GrantProjects, National Oceanic and AtmosphericAgency; and Economic Potential Committee,

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Marine Technology Society. Participated inConference on Fishery Economics held by Na-tional Marine Fisheries Service, U.S. Depart-ment of Commerce; and FAO Technical Con-ference on Marine Pollution and its Effects onLiving Resources and Fisheries, Rome. Advisedon planning ocean resources sessions of the4th Annual Joint Meeting of Producers andUsers of Operations Research, Gaithersburg,Md. Spoke on Issues on the Law of the Sea tothe Darien (Conn.] Community Association.Presented paper, "Implications for Fisheries ofthe U.S. Draft Convention on the Sea-Bed," tothe Marine Technology Society Symposium,The Law of the Sea: A Year of Crisis. Preparedpaper, "Suggestions for Studies of FisheryProblems," for a meeting of the Ad Hoc Work-ing Group on International Fishery Regulations,Ocean Affairs Board, National Academy ofSciences, Seattle. Spoke to 33rd Annual Meet-ing of the Pacific Fishery Biologists on owner-ship of ocean resources, Gearhart, Oregon, andpresented paper on that subject at the annualconvention of the Izaak Walton League, Ana-heim, California, Participated in planning pro-gram; chaired session; and gave paper, "Re-search Needs on Ocean Issues," at Gth AnnualConference of the Law of the Sea Institute,University of Rhode Island. Led seminar on"Role of the Federal Government in Develop-ment of Marine Resources," at Marine MineralsTechnology Center, U.S. Department of Com-merce, Tiburon, Calif.

CHARLES J. CICCHETTI. Adviser to the Sub-committee on Outdoor Recreation, NortheastRegional Resources Research Committee. As-sociate editor of the Journal of Leisure Re-search. Testified at the U.S. Department of theInterior Hearings on the Proposed Trans-Alaska Pipeline. Presented seminars on issuesof preservation versus development at the Uni-versity of Wisconsin and the State Universityof New York at Stony Brook. Served as re-viewer for research proposals submitted to theNational Science Foundation and as a memberof their site visit team for the Lake Tahoe Re-search Project. Served as panelist at the 15thWorld Congress of the International Union ofForestry Research Organizations. With John V.Krutilla, presented a paper, "Preservation ver-sus Development: Some Economic Issues," atthe December 1970 meeting of the EconometricSociety.

99

MARION CLAWSON. Served as director of theNational Conference on State Parks, on theProgram Committee for its 1971 meeting, and aschairman of its Committee on Budget andFinance. Member of the Advisory Committee onFlood Insurance, Department of Housing andUrban Development. Named as member of thePresident's Advisory Panel on Timber and theEnvironment. Presented a paper on the inter-national aspects of the environmental impact ofeconomic development at the Symposium onPolitical Economy of the Environment in Paris;and another an urbanization and the modern-ization of agr;culture at the International Con-ference on Urbanization and Development inRehovot, Israel. At a conference on the man-agement of federal lands, sponsored by theUniversity of California at San Francisco, gavea paper, "Economic Aspects of Public Lands,"and participated in a revi,,.w of the report bythe Public Land Law Review Commission. Pre-sented a paper, "Alternative Land Use Patternsand Environmental Quality," to the NortheastAgricultural Economics Council in Amherst,Mass. At the University of Guelph in Canada,led a seminar and lectured on resources, eco-nomic development, and environmental quality.Led seminars before the agricultural economicsstaffs of the University of California at Davisand of the University of Wisconsin. Participatedin the annual conference of the Society for In-ternational Development in Ottawa. Met withthe Subcommittee on Resource Allocation ofthe Agricultural Board of the National Acad-emy of Sciences in Chicago to consider agricul-tural development and environmental quality.Spoke on resource economics tr. the NaturalResources Committee of the U.S. Chamber ofCommerce, and one on the economics of out-door recreation to the Ontario Society of Pro-fessional Foresters in Toronto. In Chicago, at asymposium sponsored by the Committee onArid Lands of the American Association for theAdvancement of Science, spoke on urbaniza-tion in the arid lands. Gave talks on long-runproblems of rural adjustment, Montana StateUniversity; on resource adjustment and qualityof the environment problems, Rio GrandeChapter of the Sierra Club, Santa Fe; on eco-nomic and social aspects of pollution control,National Council for Social Studies, New YorkCity; and on economic and social aspects ofnatural resource use, Natural Resources Round-table, Washington, D.C. Met with several semi-

1.00

nor groups and gave talks on various subjectsat Oklahoma State University. Under the aus-pices of the U.S. Department of AgricultureGraduate School, spoke to agricultural groupson rural-urban balance and the problems ofnonmetropolitan areas.

PIERRE R. CROSSON. Conducted a seminar atEl Colegio de Mexico, Mexico City, on currentresearch on urbanization in Mexico; and duringthe summer of 1971 was visiting professor, Cen-ter for Agricultural Economics, Chapingo, Mex-ico, and visiting researcher, El Colegio deMexico.

JOEL DARMSTADTER. Participated in theWorld Energy Conference in Bucharest. Spokeon current energy problems before The Eco-nomic Panel, a group of corporation executives,in New York City. Panelist at the session on re-sources, Urban Technology Conference, Ameri-can Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics,New York City. With Sam Schurr, presented apaper, "Energy Resources Relative to EnergyNeeds in the Light of Emergent Economic andSocial Issues,- before the American NuclearSociety in Boston.

JEROME K. DELSON. As a consultant to theUN Department of Economic and Social Affairs,prepared a background paper, "Energy and En-vironmental Policy for Developing Countries,"for the 1972 UN Conference on Human Environ-ment to be held in Stockholm.

EDGAR S. DUNN, JR. Member of the AdvisoryBoard for the Project on Computer Data Banks,National Academy of Sciences; and of theExecutive Committee, Southern Economics As-sociation.

JOSEPH L. FISHER. Member of the Ocean Af-fairs Board, National Science Foundation; andof the Commission on Education and the Com-mittee on Public Engineering Policy, both of theNational Academy of Engineering. Also servedon the Committee of Consultants for the forth-coming UN Conference on the Human Environ-ment; and the Committee for Arctic Develop-ment, Arctic Institute of America. Delivered theHorace Albright Lecture, entitled "Conservationas Research, Policy, and Action," at the Univer-

100

sity of California at Berkeley; and was Univer-sity Regents Lecturer at the University of Cal-ifornia in Santa Cruz. As guest speaker at theSenior Seminar in Foreign Policy of the ForeignService Institute, Department of State, spokeon resource trends, issues, and prospects. De-livered three papers: "Elements in a NationalEnergy Policy." at the Western Resources Con-ference held in Golden, Colo., at the ColoradoSchool of Mines; "Impact of Population on Re-sources and the Environment,- at the annualmeeting of the American Economics Associationin Detroit; and "Natural Resource Policies forthe Future," at a Brookings Institution seminaron U.S. government operations and policy is-sues. Gave a talk, -Urban Man At Home orAdrift?" to the City Club of Portland, Ore.

MASON GAFFNEY. Gave a paper, "Is the Prop-erty Tax Regressive?" at the 64th Annual Meet-ing of the National Tax Association, KansasCity. Advised Montgomery County (Md.) Coun-cil on construction of cadastral surveys and leda discussion on the use of such surveys at ameeting of the City Council and WisconsinProperty Owners' League, Beloit. Lectured onreplacement demand and full employment atthe University of Pittsburgh; on land valuesand inflation and on city planning and theproperty tax at two meetings of the Common-wealth Club of California; and on reconcilingfull employment a-:d environmental quality atClemson University. Delivered a paper, "WorldResources and Neo-morcantilism," at the lathAnnual Meeting, Committee on Taxation, Re-sources, and Economic Development, Univer-sity of Wisconsin. Gave a seminar on policiesfor urhan renewal and revival, Klutznick Cor-poration Planning Group, Chicago; and gavethe 1970 Vinton Lecture. "How to Recover fromUrban Sprawl," at Montgomery College, Rock-ville, Md Led a seminar on tax assessment ofnatural resources, Joint Ways and Means Com-mittee, Montana State Legislature, Helena; andone on forest taxation, Trees for People Pro-gram, Washington, D.C. Chaired a session atthe University of Wisconsin Conference on Wa-ter Quality, Milwaukee. Gave an address on thevaluation of mineral deposits at the annual con-vention of the Assessors' Association of WestVirginia, sponsored by the West Virginia StateTax Commission. Conducted a seminar on capi-tal theory at The Johns Hopkins University.

101

EDWIN T. HAEFELE. Chairman of the AdvisoryPanel on U.S. Strategy for Developing NuclearMerchant Ships, Maritime Transportation Re-search Board, National Academy of Sciences.Member of the Committee on Social, Economic,and Environmental Factors of Transportation,Highway Research Board, National Academy ofSciences; the review panel for Multistate Re-gionalism in the Federal System, AdvisoryCommission on Intergovernmental Relations;and the Governing Council, College of Logis-tics, Institute of Management Sciences. Lec-tured on technical assessment and social choicemechanisms at Oak Ridge National Laboratoryand spoke on intangible and non-ocean ele-ments of the negotiation process as a panelmember at the 8th Annual Conference of theLaw of the Sea Institute, University of RhodeIsland, Presented a paper on social choices andindividual preferences at the Seminar on Eco-nomics and Decision Making for EnvironmentalQuality, University of Florida. Other papers in-cluded: -Executive Government: Our PresentConfusion," Washington Operations ResearchCouncil; "The Feasibility of Facility UserCharges in Northern Transport," Conference onArctic Transportation, Yellowknife, NorthwestTerritories, Canada; and "Social Choice in Res-idual Management: Politicizing an EconomicModel," American Political Science Convention,Chicago,

ORRIS C. HERFINDAHL. Served on the Panelon Scientific and Technical Information for De-veloping Nations of the National Academy ofSciences. Participated in the American Geologi-cal Institute Conference on Conservation andthe Minerals Industry A Public Dilemma, atHot Springs, Va. Lectured on social benefitsand costs and the materials outlook, at theUniversity of Wyoming; and on problems ofenvironmental quality during the series, "Sci-ence and Technology in Foreign Affairs," spon-sored by the Foreign Service Institute. Pre-sented the opening paper, entitled "Quality ofthe Environment an Overview,- at the meet-ing of the Council on Higher Education in theAmerican Republics in Santa Maria, Peru. Gavetwo other papers: "Defining the Problem ofEnvironmental Quality," at the Centennial Con-ference on Quality of the Environment at OhioState University; and "What Are the EConomicConsiderations in Assessing the Role of Re-

101

mote Sensing in Country Development?," at theU.S. Agency for International DevelopmentSymposium on Utility of Remote Sensing as anAid to Developing Countries, at the Smithson-ian Institution,

IRVING HOCH. Member of the Committee onTaxation, Finance, and Pricing of the HighwayResearch Board, National Academy of Sciences.Associate of the Committee on InternationalExchange of Persons (Senior Fulbright-HaysProgram) and member of its Advisory Com-mittee for Western Europe and several of itsreview panels. Lectured on vertical transporta-tion (elevators, escalators) to a class in urbandevelopment at The George Washington Uni-versity. Participated as member of ad hoc com-mittee in Highway Research Board conferenceon community flow in urban areas.

ALLEN V. KNEESE, Participated in the meetingof the Economic Commission for Europe, heldin Prague in May, serving as a consultant in thepreparatory stage and presenting a paper, "TheBenefit-Cost Analysis of Environmental Pollu-tion," at the meeting itself. Lectured on eco-nomic aspects of controlling the environmentand on various environmental issues at theUniversity of Illinois, Champaign; at PrincetonUniversity; at a seminar organized by the De-partment of Agricultural Resource Economics,the University of Maine; at a seminar of theDepartment of Economics, Brown University:and at a meeting organized by the Departmentof Economics, Indiana University. Presented"Pollution and the Profit Motive" at the 18thAnnual Conference of the joint EngineeringManagement Conference in Chicago, and spokeon a pricing system to control pollution at the40th Annual Conference of the Southern Eco-nornics Association in Atlanta. Was discussantof Albert Breton's paper, "The Non-internaliza-tion of Externalities," at the joint session ofthe Association for Comparative Economicsand the Association for the Study of Soviet-type Economics at the annual meeting of theAmerican Economics Association. Chaired asession of the 5th International Conference onInput-Output Techniques, in Geneva, sponsoredby the United Nations and Harvard University.At the request of three prominent economistsfrom Japan, organized and chaired a staff work-shop on environmental problems. Presented

"The Economics of Environmental Pollution inthe United States" at a Conference on Goalsand Strategy for Environmental Quality Im-provement in the Seventies, sponsored by theAtlantic Council of the United States and Bat-telle Memorial Institute. Served as a memberof the Panel on International Law and theGlobal Environment, sponsored by the Ameri-can Society of International Law, in Washing-ton. Presented "The Ruhr, the Delaware,United States, and Water Quality Manage-ment," at the Environmental Resources Sem-inar of the Department of Civil Engineering,University of Delaware; and lectured on waterquality in rivers and reservoirs at a waterquality training course of the Corps of Engi-neers, in Cincinnati. Conducted a discussion onbarriers to industrial pollution control at TheBrookings Institution's Round Table for Cor-porate Executives. Participated in the annualmeeting of the National Academy of SciencesNational Research Council, Washington. Pre-sented a paper, "Incentives and EnvironmentalManagement," at the 18th Ontario IndustrialWaste Conference sponsored by the OntarioWater Resources Commission, at Niagara Falls.Was an advisor for the first meeting of theSubcommittee on Improving the Quality of theEnvironment of the Committee for EconomicDevelopment, in New York; and chaired a ses-sion on taxation and management of environ-mental quality at the national Tax AssociationAnnual Conference in Kansas City. As a Royervisiting professor of political economy, at theUniversitY of California, Berkeley, gave twolectures on water quality management, one onwhat has been learned from economic researchand the other on the present national waterpollution control program and a possible al-ternative. Served as a member of the Com-mittee Advisory to the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration (formerly Environ-mental Science Services Administration) of theNational Academy of Sciences, and was chair-man of the Subcommittee on Model Environ-mental Systems Analysis.

JOHN V. KRUTILLA. Continued service on theCommittee on Support of Dissertation Researchon Recreation and Leisure of the National Acad-emy of Sciences; the National Air Quality Cri-teria Advisory Committee of the EnvironmentalProtection Agency; and the Senior Technical

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Advisory Panel of the UN Development Pro-gramVistula River Project, Consultant to theDepartment of Recreation and Conservation ofthe Province of British Columbia; and for theForest Service SawtoothBoulderWhite CloudsPioneer Mountains region study. At the Uni-versity of Idaho, presented an evaluation of thebenefits of preserving Hells Canyon as a na-tural area. Lectured at the University of Guelphin Canada and conducted a seminar at TheJohns Hopkins University on including thevalue of science resources in benefit-cost analy-sis. Conducted a seminar at the University ofMichigan on the question of the carrying capac-ity of low-density resource-based recreationalareas. In Detroit, presented a paper at theannual meeting of the American Statistical As-sociation and, with Charles Cicchetti, gave an-other at the annual meeting of the EconometricSociety.

HANS H. LANDSBERG. As a member of thePanel of Experts for the UN Conference on theHuman Environment (Stockholm, 1972), partic-ipated in a Development and Environment ses-sion in Geneva, helped to draft the so-calledFounex Report, and continued to serve thesecretariat in an informal advisory capacity.Participated in the 13th Pugwash Symposium,whose theme was "Social Aspects of Technol-ogical Change," in Frascati, Italy; and in theJoint Colloquim on International EnvironmentalScience before the Senate Committee on Com-merce and the House Committee on Scienceand Astronautics. Continued as a member ofthe Load-Forecasting Methodology AdvisoryCommittee of the 1970 Notional Power Surveybeing prepared by the Federal Power Commis-sion. At the National Academy of Sciences,served on the Committee for InternationalEnvironmental Programs and chaired a two-dayworkshop on environment and development;served on the National Materials AdvisoryBoardCommittee on Technical Aspects of Crit-ical and Strategic Materials; and on the Com-mittee on the Survey of Materials Science andEngineering, its Executive Board, and its Panelon the Nature of Materials Science and Engi-neering. Spoke on international environmentalproblems at the Columbia University workshopon "Economic Development versus Environ-mental Protection" sponsored by the School ofInternational Affairs and Salk Foundation.

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GEORGE O. G. LOF. Served as consultant toWorld Health Organization on water qualityimprovement in Poland, and to the IllinoisState Water Survey's workshop and panel onheat discharges into environment, sponsored byNational Science Foundation, As professor ofcivil engineering, taught courses in water qual-ity at Colorado State University. Lectured ondevelopments in solar energy for NASA lectureseries at Goddard Space Flight Center, Servedon two National Academy of Sciences com-mittees: Technologies and Water, and Utiliza-tion of Solar Energy in Developing Nations.Presented paper, "Economics of House Heatingwith Solar Energy," at meeting of InternationalSolar Energy Society.

THOMAS H. E. QUIMBY. Lectured on solidwaste management to engineering and naturalresources management classes at the Universityof Michigan. Presented a paper, "What New In-centives Are Needed?" (for waste recycling) atthe 1st National Conference on Composting-Waste Recycling in Denver; and another, "Re-cycling is Fashionable," to the Baltimore-Wash-ington Underwriting Club in Washington, D.C.Spoke on the place of recycling in solid wastemanagement before the National Capital Sec-tion of the American Water Resources Associa-tion in Washington, D.C.

RONALD G. RIDKER. Consulted with the gov-ernment of Malaysia on a proposed experimentwith monetary incentives for family planning.Gave a talk, "Unemployment in DevelopingCountries: Comparisons of South Asian andSoutheast Asian Experience," at the Conferenceon Employment and Unemployment in South-east Asia, held in Singapore; and another,"Methodology Used in Project on Estimation ofResource and Environmental Consequences ofPopulation Growth in the United States," at theConference on Environmental Model Building,sponsored by the University of California atRiverside, Presented two papers: "Populationand Pollution," at the annual meeting of thePopulation Association in Washington, D.C.;and "Some Economic Implications of ZPG," ata meeting of the National Industrial ConferenceBoard in New York City. Participated in a sem-inar, "Unemployment in the LDC's," sponsoredby the Overseas Development Council in Wash-ington, D.C.; and at the Council's Development

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Issues Seminar, commented on a paper by Les-ter Brown. Participated in the Conference onthe Use of Monetary Incentives for PopulationControl at Chapel Hill, N.C.; the Conference onNon-Renewable Resources, sponsored by theDivision of Earth Sciences, National Academyof Sciences; and a meeting of the SouthernEconomics Association in Atlanta.

CLIFFORD S. RUSSELL. Conducted seminarson environmental quality and regional model-ling work at the Woodrow Wilson InternationalCenter for Scholars, Smithsonian Institution;University of Wisconsin; University of Connect-icut; National Bureau of Standards; and theNASA-ASEE Engineering Systems Design Pro-gram, Langley Air Force Base, Hampton, Va.Presented a paper, "Regional EnvironmentalQuality Management: A Quantitative Ap-proach," at the California Institute of Technol-ogy Conference on Technological Change andthe Human Environment, in Pasadena.

SAM H. SCHURR. Continued as 1070 HenryKrumb Lecturer of the American Institute ofMining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers(AIME), and spoke on "Prospects for Change inthe International Oil Industry" at sectionalmeetings in Grand Junction and in Houston.Served as member of the Economics Committeeof the American Chemical Society in theirstudy o; chemistry and the U.S. economy, andas a member of the steering group of the Com-mittee on Power Plant Siting (COPPS) of theNational Academy of Engineering. Conducted aseminar on U.S. energy policies and problemsat the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Af-fairs in Austin. Delivered a lecture on "MiddleEastern Oil in the Next Decade: Some Uncer-tainties" to the Petroleum Exploration Societyof New York and a paper on "Some Elementsin the Political Economy of Middle EasternOil" at Louisiana State University in New Or-leans. With Joel Darrnstadter, prepared a paperon "Energy Resources Relative to Energy Needsin the Light of Emergent Economic and SocialIssues" for presentation at the annual meetingsof the American Nuclear Society in Boston.

V. KERRY SMITH. Presented papers "NonlinearEstimation Incorporating Prior Identifying In-formation versus Ordinary Least Squares,- tothe American Institute for Decision Sciences,

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Dallas; and "Simulation and Spectral Analysisof a Model of a Developing Economy," to theSummer Computer Simulation Conference, Bos-ton. Was co-author of the following papers: "ATime-Series Analysis of Interest Rates in theUnited States" and "A Generalization of Theil'sk-Class of Estimators under Degrees of Free-dom Constraints,- presented to the AmericanStatisLcal Association, Detroit; and -An Exam-ination of Liquidity, Income, and Price Expec-tations Effects upon Interest Rates,- presentedto the Western Economics Association, Van-couver, B.C.

WALTER 0. SPOFFORD, JR. Served on thesteering committee of the 1st National Con-ference or Composting Waste Recycling,Denver, am on the organizing committee of theEngineering Foundation Research Conferenceon Engineering and Social Costs in Environ-mental Control, Deerfield, Massachusetts. Pre-sented "Solid Waste The junk We Discard"to 11th Carnegie Conference, Carnegie-MellonUniversity, Pittsburgh, and -Some EconomicConsiderations in Reclaiming Fiber" to the Con-ference on Fiber Recovery from Solid Wasteand Its Use, Miami University Pulp and PaperFoundation, Oxford, Ohio. Served as a panelmember for Recycling Day in New York; andas moderator of the sessions on materials re-

WRITINGS A SELECT VE LIST

Bower, Blair T. "Residuals and EnvironmentalManagement." Journal of the American Insti-tute of Planners, vol. 37, no. 4, 1971, pp. 218-20.

, with C. W. Howe. "Policies for EfficientRegional Water IVIanagement." Proceedings,American Society of civil Engineers, vol. 96,no. IR 4, 1970, pp. 367-93.

, with W. R. D. Sewell. "Selecting Strat-egies for Air Quality Management." ResourcePaper No. 1. Ottawa, Canada: Department ofEnergy, Mines, and Resources, Policy Re-search and Coordination Branch, 1971.

, with Walter 0. Spofford, Jr. "Environ-mental Quality Management." Natural Re-sources journal, vol. 10, no. 4, 1970, pp. 655-67.

Christy, Francis T., Jr. "Economic Problems andProspects for Exploitation of the Resourcesof the Sea-Bed and Its Subsoil." In Sympos-

104

covery and reuse, and ultimate disposal of res-iduals, at the Engineering Foundation ResearchConference on Engineering and Social Costs inEnvironmental Control, Deerfield, Mass.

LOWDON WINGO. Consultant on urbanizationin developing countries to the InternationalBank on Reconstruction and Development.Served on the Panel on Costs of Urbanizationof the Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development in Paris. Member of the Eval-uation Panel of the Appalachian Regional Com-mission; the Urban Management Panel of thePresident's Advisory Commission on Manage-ment Improvement; the Executive Committee ofthe Committee on Urban Economics; the Com-mittee on Urban Public Economics; and the U.S.Editorial Board of the journal Urban Studies,sponsored by the University of Glasgow. Pre-pared a paper, "National Development Objec-tives and Metropolitan Concentration," for theConference on Urbanization and Developmentin Developing Countries, held in Rehovot, Is-rael. Lectured on economic aspects of newcommunities at the Symposium on New Com-munities at the Reston Center of Virginia Poly-technic Institute; and on economic issues innational urban growth policy at the Yale Uni-versity Seminar on Policy Issues in UrbanStudies.

ium on the Exploration and Exploitation ofthe Sea-Bed and Its Subsoil, Strasbourg,France: Council of Europe, 1991.

Preface to Ann L. Hollick, MarinePolicy, Law and Economics: Annotated Bib-liography. University of Rhode Island: Lawof the Sea Institute, 1990.

Cicchetti, Charles J. "Some Economic Issues In-volved in Planning Urban Recreation Facil-ities.- Land Economics, Winter 1970.

, with A. Myrick Freeman III. "ConsumerSurplus and Option Value in the Estimationof Benefits." Quarterly Journal of Economics,vol. 85, August 1971.

, with A. Myrick Freeman III, Robert H.Haveman, and Jack L. Knetsch. "On the Eco-nomics of Mass Demonstrations." AmericanEconomic Review, vol. 61, no. 4, September1971.

, with J. J. Seneca. "User Response in

105

Outdoor Recreation: A Reply.- Journal ofLeisure Research, Spring 1970.

Clawson, Marion. "Agriculture in an AdvancedEconomy." In Rural Development in a Chang-ing World, edited by Raanan Weitz. Cam-bridge: MIT Press, 1971.

. Bureau of Land Management. New York:Praeger, 1971.

. -Conflicting Pressures on Forest-Re-source Managers and the Role of the Publicin Management Decisions." Proceedings ofthe Annual Meeting, Allegheny Section, So-ciety of American Foresters, White SulphurSprings, W. Va., February 1971.

. "Economic Considerations in Arid LandUse.- In Public Land Policy, edited by PhillipA. Foss. Proceedings of the Western Re-sources Conference, Fort Collins, Colorado,1968. Boulder; Associated University Press,1970,

. "Land Resources." In Environment: Re-sources, Pollution, and Society, edited byWilliam W. Murdoch. Stamford, Conn.: Si-nauer Associates, 1971.

, "More and Better, But How? A Recap ofOur Natural Resource Choices." In Contoursof Change, Yearbook of Agriculture, 1970,U.S. Department of Agriculture. Washington,D.C.: Government Printing Office, October1970.

"Population, Settlement, and GrowthPatterns." American Journal of AgriculturalEconomics, December 1970.

. Resources, Economic Development, andEnvironmental Quality. Publication No. 42,Centre for Resources Development, Univer-sity of Guelph, Canada: September 1971.

. "Resources and Technology for Bal-anced Growth." In Toward Policies for Bal-anced Growth, edited by Donald L. Nelson.Washington, D.C.: USDA Graduate SchoolPress, 1971.

. "State Parks and Recreation Areas AreVital.- Parks and Recreation, December 1970.

, "Urban Research Needs a Boost." Na-tion's Cities, October 1970.

Dunn, Edgar S., Jr, "A Flow Network Image ofUrban Structures." Urban Studies, vol. 7, no,3, October 1970.

. "Distinguishing Statistical and Intellig-ence Systems." In Information Technology ina Democracy, edited by Alan F. Westin. Har-vard Studies in Technology and Society.Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1971.

Fisher, Joseph L. "Alaska Oil in Historical Per-spective." In Change in Alaska: People, Pe-troleum, and Politics, a compendium of pa-pers presented at the Twentieth AlaskaScience Conference held at the University ofAlaska in August 1969. College: University of

105

Alaska Press, 1971.. -Dimensions of the Environmental

Crisis," Zygon, vol. 5, no. 4, December 1970.Originally presented as a paper at the Seven-teenth Summer Conference on Religion in anAge of Science at Star Island, N.H., July 25-August 1, 1970.

. -The Economic Consequences of Na-tural Resource Development in Urban Re-gions." In Proceedings of the National Con-ference on Urban Water Research. GeorgiaInstitute of Technology. March 1970.

. "Environmental Pollution and the Fu-ture of Man's Earth." Social Education, vol.35, no. 1, January 1971.

. "An Expanding Future for Soil Con-servation," Journal of Soil and Water Con-servation, vol, 25, no. 6, Novemaer-December,1970

"Impact of Population on Resources andthe Environment." American Economic Re-view, vol. 61, no. 2, May 1971.

. "A Larger Future for Soil Conserva-tion." In Turning Points in Time: Land, Wa-ter, People, proceedings of the 25th AnnualMeeting of the Soil Conservation Society ofAmerica. Ankeny, Iowa: Soil ConservationSociety of America, 1971.

-. -Policies for Balanced Growth," Growthand Change, vol. 2, no. 2, April 1971.

, with Neal Potter. "The Effects of Pop-ulation Growth on Resource Adequacy andQuality." In Rapid Population Growth: Con-sequences and Policy Implications. Baltimore:The Johns Hopkins Press for the NationalAcademy of Sciences, 1971.

Gaffney, Mason. "Coordinating Tax Incentivesand Public Policy: T!-.e Treatment of LandIncome," In Economic Analysis and the Effi-ciency of Government, U.S. Congress, JointEconomic Committee, Subcommittee an Effi-ciency in Government, Part 2, pp. 405-15.Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government PrintingOffice, 1970.

. "Federal Water Policy." In EconomicAnalysis and the Efficiency of Government.U.S. Congress, Joint Economic Committee,Subcommittee on Efficiency in Government,Part 2, pp. 334-42. Washington, D.C.: U.S.Government Printing Office, 1970.

. "Replacement of individual by MassSystems in Urban Growth." In Proceedingsof the Fourth Annual Meeting. New York:American Real Estate and Urban EconomicsAssociation, 1970.

. "Tax-induced Slow Turnover of Capi-tal." Part V. American Journal of Economicsand Sociology. January 1971, pp. 105-11,

. "What Is Property Tax Reform?" Con-gressional Record, May

106

10, 1971, pp. E4152-55.

Haefele, Edwin T. "Decision-Making in Com-mon Property Resources." journal of Soil andWater Conservation, July-August, 1971.

. "Pollution Control Decisions: WhoShould Make Them?" Proceedings of the 33rd.National Farm Institute, Des Moines, 1971.

. "A Utility Theory of RepresentativeGovernment." American Economic Review,vol. 61, no. 3, part I, June 1971.

Howe, Charles W., Clifford S. Russell, RobertA. Young, and William J. Vaughan. Summaryof Future Water Demands: Impacts of Tech-nological Change, Public Policies, and Chang-ing Market Conditions on Water Use Patternsof Selected Sectors of the U.S. Economy,1970-1990. Publication number PB 197 877.National Technical Information Service, U.S.Department of Commerce, Springfield, Va.22151. 116 pp. Paper (mimeo.), $3.00,

Kneese, Allen V. -Background for the EconomicAnalysis of Environmental Pollution." Swed-ish Journal of Economics, vol. 73, no. 1,March 1971.

. "Environmental Pollution: Economicsand Policy." American Economic Review, vol.61, no. 2, May 1971.

"Pollution and a Better Environment."In Symposium on Air Pollution, edited byLeonard W. Levy. New York: Da Capo Press,1971.

. "Strategies for Environmental Management." Public Po/icy, vol. 19, no, 1, Winter1971.

, with Robert U. Ayres. "Production, Con-sumption, and Externalities." In Is EconomicsRelevant?, edited by Robert L. Heillaronerand Arthur M. Ford. Pacific Palisades, Calif.:Goodyear Publishing Company, 1971.

Landsberg, Hans, with Clifford S. Russell. "In-ternational Environmental Problems: A Tax-onomy." Science, June 25, 1971, pp. 1307-14.

Nelson, Michael. Evaluation of Peruvian Agri-culture Relative to U.S. AID Assistance. Lima,Peru: Ministry of Agriculture and U.S. Agencyfor International Development, June 1971.

. Methodology and Analysis: BolivianAgricultural Production and Marketing Loan.La Paz, Bolivia: U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment, December 1970.. La Sub-region de Motatan-Cenizo: Bases

pare un Programa de PreinversiOn y Desar-rollo. Santiago, Chile: Latin American Insti-tute for Economic and Social Planning, June1971.

Quimby, Thomas H. E. "What New IncentivesAre Needed?" (for waste recycling). CompostScience, July-August 1971.

Ridker, Ronald G. "Agricultural Mechanization

106

in South Asia." Development Digest, val. 9,January 1971, pp. 108-13.

. "Employment and Unemployment inNear East and South Asian Countries: A Re-view of Evidence and Issues." In Employ-ment and Unemployment Problems of theNear East and South Asia, edited by RonaldG. Ridker and Harold Lubell, 2 vols. New

Vikas Publications, 1971.Employment in South Asia: Problems,

Prospects, and Prescriptions. Occasional Pa-per Series. Washington, D.C.: Overseas De-velopment Council, June 1971.

. -Savings Accounts for Family Planning:An Illustration from the Tea Estates of India."Studies in Family Planning, vol. 2, no. 7,July 1971.

Russell, Clifford S. "Additional Comment onConservation and Development." BiologicalConservation, July 1971.

. "Losses from Natural Hazards." LandEconomics, vol. XLVI, no. 4, November 1970,pp. 383-93.

. "Models for the Investigation of Indus-trial Response to Residuals Management Ac-tions." Swedish Journal of Economics, March1971, pp. 134-56.

"Uncertainty and Choice of Plant Ca-pacity." Journal of the American Water WorksAssociation, vol. 63, June 1971, pp. 390-91.

, with Hans Landsberg, "InternationalEnvironmental Problems: A Taxonomy." Sci-ence, June 25, 1971, pp. 1307-14.

Schurr, Sam H. "Some Aspects of the Evolutionof Petroleum Policies in the United States."In Public Policy and the Future of the Petrol-eum Industry, edited by James I. Pikl. Lar-amie: University of Wyoming Press, 1970.

Smith, V. Kerry. "Economic Anonymity andMonte Carlo Studies." Applied Economics,March 1971.

"A Monte Carla Experiment with aLarge Macro-Econometric Model.- WesternEconomic Journal, December 1970.

. "A Note on Student's t Test with Mul-tiple Regression." Journal of Financial andQuantitative Analysis, June 1971.

, with R. A. Patton. "Sub-Labor MarketAdjustment and Economic Impulses: A Noteon the Ohio Experience," Regional Studies,July 1971.

Spofford, Walter O., fr. "Closing the Gap inWaste Management." Environmental Scienceand Technology, vol. 4, no. 12, December1970, pp. 1108-14.

. "Solid Residuals Management: SomeEconomic Considerations." Natural ResourcesJournal, vol. 11, no. 3, July 1971.

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

V/P

108

Price Waterhouse & Co.1801 K Street, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 2000626 October 1971

To the Board of Directors of Resources for the Future, Inc.

In our opinion, the accompanying Statement of Assets, Liabili-ties and Fund Balance, the Statement of Income and Expense, theStatement of Source and Application of Cash, and the Statementof Grants (Exhibits I, II, III and IV) present fairly the assets,liabilities and fund balance of Resources for the Future, Inc., at30 September 1971 and 30 September 1970, its income and ex-penses and sources and applications of cash for the years thenended, in conformity with generally accepted accounting princi-ples consistently applied. Our examinations of these statementswere made in accordance with generally accepted auditing stand-ards and accordingly included such tests of the accounting recordsand such other auditing procedures as we considered necessaryin the circumstances.

Price Waterhouse & Co.

1! 09

Exhibit I

RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE, INC.

STATEMENT OF ASSETS,

LIABILITIES, AND FUND BALANCE

ASSETS

CashCertificates of depositGrants receivable from the Ford Foundation (Note 1)Grant receivable from the Rockefeller Foundation (Note

30 September1971 1970

$ 544,390 $ 553,224800,000 400,000

4,500,000 6,684,788

2) 31,485 300,000Other receivables 106,272 99,843

$5,982,147 $8,037,855

LIABILITIES AND FUND BALANCE

Grants payable (Exhibit IV) ................. $ 228,699 $ 359,355Accounts payable 85,765 36,389

314,464 395,944Fund balance at beginning of period 7,642,111 8,812,271Less excess of expense over income for the year (Exhibit

II) 1,974,428 1,170,160Fund balance at end of period 5,667,683 7,642,111

$5,982,147 $5,037,855

110

111

Exhibit II

RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE, INC.

STATEMENT OF INCOME

AND EXPENSE

NCOME

Grants:

For the Year Ended1971 197030 September

Rockefeller Foundation $ 500,000General Service Foundation $ 20,000The Ford Foundation 6,917 150,000

Interest 45,681 49,905Contracts with United States agencies and international

agencies 273,925 122,780346,523 822,685

EXPENSEStaff Grants

(Exhibit IV)Program:

Quality of the environment $ 444,645 $ 76,636 521,281 444,753Natural environments 91,022 51,290 142,312 103,675Land and water 59,921 26,576 86,497 186,985Energy and minerals 248,141 7,291 255,432 213,452Regional and urban studies 148,612 4,215 152,827 191,210Resource appraisals 84,698 84,698 38,118Special pro:cts 229,816 45,938 275,754 201,111Latin American 238,878 10,810 249,688 171,371Publications (less $106,217 re-

ceived from sales of publica-tions) 236,067 236,067 142,364

$1,781,800 $222,756 2,004,556 1,693,039

Administration:Compensation and employee benefits 188,860 170,002Travel 12,201 16,178Rent 65,682 64,878Furniture, supplies, and equ p ent 12,919 12,954Other administrative 36,733 35,794

316,395 299,806Total expense 2,320,951 1,992,845

EXCESS OF EXPENSE OVER INCOME $1,974,428 $1,170,160

lii

112

Exhibit III

RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE, INC.

STATEMENT OF SOURCE

AND APPLICATION OF CASI

Cash provided by:

30 September1971 1970

Receipts from the Ford Foundation $2,184,788 $1,825,000Receipts from the Rockefeller Foundation 268,515 200,000Sale of Certificates of Deposit net 200,000Other income received 346,523 172,885

2,799,826 2,197,885Cash applied to:

Program expense 2,004,556 1,693,039Administrative expense 316,395 299,806Purchase of Certificates of Deposit net 400,000Increase in other receivablesnet 6,429 36,552(Increase) decrease in liabilities net 81,280 (47,085)

2,808,660 1,982,312Cash increase (decrease) during year (8,834) 215,373Cash, beginning of year 553,224 337,851Cash, end of year 544,390 $ 553,224

112

Exhibit IV

FIESOLRCES FOR THE FUTURE, INC.

STATEMENT OF GRANTS

FOR Ti fE YEAR ENDED :o SEPTEMBER 1971

Changes during periodUnpaid Unpaid30 Sept. C; ran Ls Payments 30 Sept.

1970 (neductions) (Refunds) 1971

QUALITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT PROGRAM

California, University ofTheoretical investigation of a general equilibrium

model encompassing natural resources useCarnegie-Mellon University

$ 7, r35 $ 7,135

Air pollution and human health 11,SUO 2,274 $ 9,226

Cornell UniversityManagement and control of community noise $ 58,363 22,321 35,742

Florida, University ofManagement decisions in the agricultural use of

pesticides 10,000 10,000

Harvard UniversitySocial choices by local election 25,300 4,600 20,700

Maryland, University ofOrganization of information and analysis relating

to quality of life 21,770 21,770

Michigan, University ofEconomic considerations in the development of

wetland-shoreline management strategies for SanFrancisco Bay 800 2,750 800 2,750

Northwestern UniversityIndustry reactions to pollution abatement 10,718 10,718

Pennsylvania, University ofExploration of statistical relationships between air

pollutants and certain chronic disease mortalityrates 3,333 3,333

Toronto, University ofPublic response to air pollution control measures

in the United Kingdom 19,502 19,502

Miscellaneous refunds (73 ) (73)

94,463 70,030 62,461 108,038

113

.1 13

Exhibit IV ( ntinued)Unpaid30 Sept.

1970

Changes during periodUnpaid30 Sept.

1971Grun ts Payments

(Reductions) (Refunds)NATURAL ENVIRONMENTS PROGRAM

Bowling Green State UniversityThe differential incidence of technological change

upon the demand and supply prices for naturalresource commodities $ 6,100 $ 7,880 $ 5,792 $ 8,108

Brown UniversityThe optimum use of natural areas 29,278 13,000 16 27

Colorado State UniversityStudy of the ecology of wildlife populations . 14,132 7,066 7,066

6,100 51,290 25,658 31,532

LAND AND WATER PROGRAM

Montana State UniversityTemporal allocation of natural resources, with ap-

plications to soil and livestock range conservation 6,670 6,670

Montana, University ofStudy of wildlife management 17.756 17,756

Sw.lety of American ForestersForestry curriculum development project 2,700 1,300 1,400

Southern Methodist UniversityInternational aspects of weather modification 12,250 4,300 16,550

Syracuse UniversityUnited States timber supply 6,000 (280) 5,720

Victoria, University ofAssessment of institutional innovations in water

management in England and Wales 4,800 4,80027,620 26,576 23,570 30,626

ENERGY AND MINERALS PROGRAM

Adlai Stevenson Institute of International AffairsFeasibility of a comprehensive study of U.S. nu-

clear fuel policies 1,550 1,550

Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyStatistical models of mineral exploration 9,722 9,722

North Carolina State UniversityRevision of study of supply and costs in the U.S.

petroleum industry 4.035 550) 1,485

Oregon, University ofWorld copper production and markets 20,706 12,000 8,708

Pennsylvania State UniversityQuantitative appraisal of mineral resources 20,614 8,866 29,480

Miscellaneous refunds (575) (575)55,079 7,291 8,708

114 I

Exhibit IV (continued)

REGIONAL AND URBAN PROGRAM

Brown UniversityDeterminants of geographic patterns of population

Unpaid30 Sept.

1970

Changes during periodUnpaid30 Sept.

1971Grniiis Payments

(Redact ions) (Refunds)-

growth $31,385 $31,385

California, University ofConference on Regional Accounts 17 600 8,224 $9,376

Glasgow, University ofAn economic theory of the size of cities $1,415 1,415

Conference on economic research relevant to na-tional urban development strategies 2,000 2,800

New York UniversityWorkshop in urban economics 7,500 7,500

Interuniversity committee on urban economics 27,800 27,800

Pennsylvania, University ofSeminar meetings of Committee on Urban Public

Economics 24,109 18,397 5,712

Princeton UniversityLocation choices and optimum city size 33,317 33,317

Syracuse UniversityResearch and education in urban economics 15,000 15,000

156,711 4,215 144,42.3 16,503

SPECIAL PROJECTS PROGRAM

Michigan State UniversityTrends in natural resource commodities from 1959

to 1988 2,500 2,500

Washington, University OfRegulatory system for international fisheries 19,382

Doctoral dissertation fellowships 43,730 43,738

Miscellaneous refunds (3(10) J300)19,382 45,930 43,430 21,1382

LATIN AMERICAN PROGRAM

Minnesota, University ofForeign investment in renewable natural resources 1(1,810 10,010

TOTAL GRANTS $359,355 $222,756 $353,412 $228,699

RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE, INC,

NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTSFOR THE YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 1971

Note / Ford Foundation Grants

In October 1968 the Ford Foundation approved a grant of $8,000,000for the general support of the activities of Resources for the Future fora five-year period beginning 1 October 1969. During the year Resourcesfor the Future received $2,000,000 of this grant which, with previouspayments of $1,600,000, left a balance of $4,400,000 due at 30 September1971.

An additional grant ol $295,000 was approved in January 1969 bythe Ford Foundation for a special Latin American program. During theyear, Resources for the Future received $134,788, which completes pay-ments for this grant.

In May 1970 the Ford Foundation approved a grant of $150,000 forsupport of the doctoral dissertation fellowship program for three yearsbeginning 30 September 1970. During the year a payment of $50,000 wasreceived leaving a balance of $100,000 due Resources for the Future at30 September 1971.

Note 2 Rocliefener Foundation Grunt

In December 1969 the Rockefeller Foundation approved a grant of$500,000 for research on environmental quality for a. two-to-three-yearperiod beginning 1 January 1970. Payments totalling $268,515 were re-ceived during the year which, together with previous payments of$200,000, left a balance of $31,485 due Resources for the Future at 30September 1971.

116