DNV GL - Er Arktis for sårbart for næringsvirksomhet print · Arctic is not uniform with respect...

DNV GL © 2014 03 May 2017 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2014

03 May 2017Morten Mejlænder-Larsen

- Er Arktis for sårbart for næringsvirksomhet?

Morten Mejlænder-Larsen, Discipline Leader Arctic Operation

UIO, 3. mai 2017

DNV GL © 2014 03 May 2017

The Arctic – Still a region of opportunity and interest

Arctic waters contain some of world’s most productive fisheries

Several studies show that the Arctic has large potential for undiscovered hydrocarbon and rare-earth mineral resources

Trans-Arctic shipping can reduce significantly the distance between Asia and Europe, however will for many years still be unattractive

Increasing volume of tourist traffic

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Arctic Projects

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Varandey

Norilsk

Prirazlomnoye

YamalBaffinland

Beaufort Sea

Greenland W

Greenland E

Sakhalin

Barentshavet

NSRTrans-Polar

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The diverse Arctic – calls for a stepwise approach

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Challenging?……

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24 hour fog during summer….

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24 hour darkness during winter…..

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Icing

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Operations require adaption to local conditions

Low temperatures Sea ice and icebergs Marine icing Atmospheric icing Visibility & darkness Remoteness and lack of infrastructure

Reduced satellite coverage Uncertain met-ocean data

Polar lows

Joint probabilities of loads

Vulnerable environment and marine resources

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Arktis krever en risikobasert tilnærming

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Risiko = Sannsynlighet x Konsekvens

North Sea/World wide Arctic

RR

Ex. Maritime Risk:

Collision with other vessel

Contact

Fire/explosion

Structural failure

Grounding

Collision with installation

Collision during Ship To Ship (STS) approach

Accidental oil spill during loading/unloading

Additional risk

Identify

Mitigate

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Society needs to agree on acceptable levels of risk

All industrial activity involves risk – the probability of accidents can never be zero

Arctic is not uniform with respect to hazards and risk and large areas are comparable to, for instance, the North Sea

Consequences of accidents may be more serious in the Arctic

To maintain a comparable risk level as in the North Sea requires

1. Reduced probability of incidents, combined with

2. Appropriate preparedness

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Arctic Risk mitigation Philosophy

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Arctic; severity of consequences drives risks

Risk Reduction must take place throughprevention

Consequence

Probability of failure

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The Arctic Risk Map

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Available at: http://gis.dnv.com/arcticriskmap

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Risk factors at play: Risks vary with season and location

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Safety and operability index -January

Safety and operability index -July

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Sea ice is the dominant factor limiting rescue availability in Barents Sea

Availability of evacuation and rescue resources analyzed for the operational conditions in the Barents Sea taking into account the effects of

– Distance

– Wind

– Waves

– Sea ice

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0 - 50%50 – 75%

90 – 95%75 – 90%

95 – 100%

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Probability

Safe operations require handling the arctic risk influencing factors

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ConsequenceLow temperaturesSea ice and icebergsMarine icingDarkness/fog/low visibilityPolar lowsReduced satellite coverageUncertain metocean data

Marine icing – safety systemsRemoteness - rescueLow temp – survivabilityReduced satellite coverageSea ice – evacuationVulnerable environment

Ship collision with ice

People: immediate exposure, challenging rescue and evacuation

Assets: costly repair and normalization

Business: harm to industry brandand loss of license to operate

Environment: large marine oil spilland inefficient oil spill response

RISK

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Main goals, SARiNOR project

Identify information, generate knowledge and new technology contributing to more efficient SAR operations in polar waters

Create an arena for information sharing and co‐operation among all relevant parties

Contribute to the general awareness about maritime operations in polar waters in general and SAR in particular

Update the authorities, to ensure a common understanding of the current preparedness level and influence on future implementation of new measures

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Course of Events and Main Challenges

Alerting and

Notification

Survival in Cold Climate

Shared Situational Awareness

Training and Skills Development

Incident Search Rescue

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Main Finding 1:Survival at accident site, (MF1)

Main Finding 2:Emergency Preparedness (MF2)

Probability to survive = ability to survive at accident site + emergency preparedness

MF1

MF2

Main Findings of the SARiNOR Project:

© SARINOR

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Environmental impact from accidents also needs to be considered

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Maximizing responseThe response tool-box in the Arctic should include all four main tactics (recovery, burning, dispersants, remote sensing)

Low probabilityPetroleum activities in the Barents Sea today represent a less pollution risk than the shipping activities

No impact yetCurrently no increased level of petroleum hydrocarbons or metals in sediments and no impact on benthic fauna

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Summary

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1. Identify HAZARDS for planned area of operation

2. Agree about probability and consequence and estimate the risk: R=P*C

3. Identify and implement possible risk mitigating options to achieve an acceptable risk

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DNV GL - Er Arktis for sårbart for næringsvirksomhet print · Arctic is not uniform with respect...

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