DnB Oil, Offshore & Shipping Conference€¦ · oil recovery and exploration activity . Norwegian...

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6 th March 2019 DnB Oil, Offshore & Shipping Conference

Transcript of DnB Oil, Offshore & Shipping Conference€¦ · oil recovery and exploration activity . Norwegian...

Page 1: DnB Oil, Offshore & Shipping Conference€¦ · oil recovery and exploration activity . Norwegian Shelf ... Prospects & tendering – 3 year lookout Global opportunities Tendering

6th March 2019

DnB

Oil, Offshore & Shipping Conference

Page 2: DnB Oil, Offshore & Shipping Conference€¦ · oil recovery and exploration activity . Norwegian Shelf ... Prospects & tendering – 3 year lookout Global opportunities Tendering

Disclaimer

All statements in this presentation other than statements of historical fact are

forward-looking statements, which are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties,

and assumptions that are difficult to predict and are based upon assumptions as

to future events that may not prove accurate. Certain such forward-looking

statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as

“believe”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “would be”, “expect” or “anticipate” or similar

expressions, or the negative thereof, or other variations thereof, or comparable

terminology, or by discussions of strategy, plans or intentions. Should one or

more of these risks or uncertainties materialise, or should underlying

assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those

described in this presentation as anticipated, believed or expected. Prosafe does

not intend, and does not assume any obligation to update any industry

information or forward-looking statements set forth in this presentation to reflect

subsequent events or circumstances.

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Page 3: DnB Oil, Offshore & Shipping Conference€¦ · oil recovery and exploration activity . Norwegian Shelf ... Prospects & tendering – 3 year lookout Global opportunities Tendering

Prosafe anno 2019 – Transformed and repositioned

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Modernized the fleet

Financing flexibility

o Refinancing August 2018

o Limited debt service and interest expenses in the years to come

o Covenant relief & maturity extension option

o World’s largest fleet of offshore accommodation vessels (8+3 units*)

o Cosco transaction: Add three versatile units with global reach

o 50% of the fleet will be less than 4 years old

Positioned for next phase

o Employment of Cosco vessels

o Adding further to the fleet

o Consolidation of the market

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*) Prosafe in addition holds a 25% stake in the accommodation monohull Safe Swift

Page 4: DnB Oil, Offshore & Shipping Conference€¦ · oil recovery and exploration activity . Norwegian Shelf ... Prospects & tendering – 3 year lookout Global opportunities Tendering

Number of contracts Contract months Comments

Awards in 2018 offer activity

rebound in to 2019:

• In 2018 Prosafe saw more

than a doubling in the

number of new contract

awards

• 50% of the new contracts

are for MMO work

• 92% of options historically

exercised *

Activity increased significantly in 18’–>high activity summer 19’

Source: Prosafe SE

Demand started to materialize on the back of improved market fundamentals

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* Not including TSV

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Contract status

Contract backlog Recent contract news

Safe Caledonia 80 days firm award

with a 30-day option with a major oil

and gas operator, UKCS. Ability to

substitute the vessel with another

from within the fleet; Summer 2020

Regalia 60 days firm award with a

30-day option with a major oil and

gas operator, UKCS; Summer 2019

Safe Eurus ranked first in a

Petrobras auction for a 3 year

requirement commencing Q3/ Q4

2019. Ongoing dialogue with

Petrobras to conclude.

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Order backlog

Prosafe’s firm backlog was USD 209

million per end Q4 2018

Awarded 41% and 76%, respectively,

of global and North Sea contracts’ bid

for last 6 years

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Order Backlog (USD million)

816 703

590 486 449 443

375 304 273

184 232 209

593

564

518

481 483

38 36

36 36

67 67 78

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18

Firm contracts Options

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UKCS surge in MMO

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Source: Rystad Energy

High demand in recent years driven by major hook up

and commissioning activity, although transition to MMO

going forward

Turnaround and life-time extensions expected to drive

significand demand in the next 5 years

2020 Forties pipeline maintenance shutdown is

triggering activity on production hubs

1990’s installed platforms primarily are calling for high

shares of MMO demand due to ‘lean design’

Significant interest from 13 operators to grow UKCS

portfolio

Production decline from 2025 will stimulate extended

oil recovery and exploration activity

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Norwegian Shelf – positive activity indications

Anticipated demand driven primarily by

maintenance requirements linked to lifetime

extension

Entrance of new operators – like in the UK –

could be a positive factor supporting this

type of activity

Optimism warranted for the longer term

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Page 9: DnB Oil, Offshore & Shipping Conference€¦ · oil recovery and exploration activity . Norwegian Shelf ... Prospects & tendering – 3 year lookout Global opportunities Tendering

Prosafe came first in Brazil auction. Will

mobilize Safe Eurus if contract awarded

Even upon conclusion of the tenders,

contracted supply considered

insufficient to meet Petrobras’ near/

medium term demand

Petrobras offshore MMO spending

forecast to exceed US$3.5 billion in

2020 – the first time this threshold will

be exceeded

IOC’s will also drive demand, with

Equinor anticipated to have

requirements over the existing

contracted units based on committed

and forecasted spending increase

Key Brazil developments

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IOC offshore spending increase

Source: Rystad Energy

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Mexico – Indicators pointing to activity growth from 2020

Average age of offshore facilities in Mexico is over 25 years

Over 50% of infrastructure weight was installed prior to 1991

New President ‘AMLO’ focus on increasing production by

800,000 bpd to 2.6m bpd

Increase in production will have a USD 20 billion price tag

Free cash flow increasing since 2016

Budget stabilizing – growth next?

Tenders ongoing in other segments – e.g drilling

Source: Rystad Energy / Prosafe

Offshore facilities by installation year

(topside weight)

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Prospects & tendering – 3 year lookout

Global opportunities Tendering activity – 3 year profile

13 tenders ongoing for 2019 through 2021

12 tenders with commencement dates in

2019

21 North Sea prospects with high probability

of going to tender next 3 years

11 prospects with high probability of going to

tender within Americas

Longer term tenders materialised outside the

North Sea

Tender activity at a high level

Source: Prosafe

Page 12: DnB Oil, Offshore & Shipping Conference€¦ · oil recovery and exploration activity . Norwegian Shelf ... Prospects & tendering – 3 year lookout Global opportunities Tendering

Global renewal and rebalancing of fleet

Floating accommodation supply (by year delivered)

Total floating accommodation supply

Legacy Fleet Modern Fleet Global fleet renewal

• 7 legacy units have been scrapped and another 6

units assumed scrapped in ‘19-’20

• Average age of Prosafe fleet reduced from more than

30 years to about 10 years

Long term, the global fleet is expected to fall from

~40 to an active fleet similar to the 2014/2015 fleet

Transparent industry – key players in addition to

Prosafe being:

• Floatel

• MasterMarine

• POSH

• CIMC/OOS

• Cotemar

Source: Prosafe estimates

1 1 1

0

1

5

2

3

1 1 1 1

2

1

3

1

5

3

1

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

On the water Scrapped Assumed Scrapped Newbuild

21 23 26 31 30

26 22 23

10

15 13

7 7 7

7 4

0

0 0 0 0 1

4 6 0

0 0 0 3 6 7 7 31

38 39 38 40 40 40 40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

On the Water Newbuild Assumed Scrapped Scrapped

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Page 13: DnB Oil, Offshore & Shipping Conference€¦ · oil recovery and exploration activity . Norwegian Shelf ... Prospects & tendering – 3 year lookout Global opportunities Tendering

Summary

Clear strategy

Transformed and refinanced

• Largest and most versatile fleet globally

Sufficient financial runway

Good contract coverage in prime season 2019

Positive macro’s anticipated support a gradual recovery

across the value chain and across geographies in the

years ahead

Fleet renewal / consolidation remains on the agenda

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